Close 29 Oct 2026
$129.60
Q3 2026 revenue rose 53% to $895M, ahead of the ~$875–886M consensus. Diluted EPS of $1.40 beat $1.33 and the adjusted EBITDA margin reached 45%. But search referral traffic fell "meaningfully", accelerating into October, US daily uniques fell 2% year on year, and Reddit said Q4 daily users could drop by a low-double-digit percentage. The Q4 revenue guide ($1.00–1.03B) sits below the ~$1.04–1.05B consensus. The stock fell from $129.60 to ~$106 after hours. Over the next 10–30 days traffic data and target cuts will decide whether the market looks through a user problem to a pricing story that is still working.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $129.60 on 29 Oct, down seven straight sessions from $155.65 (20 Oct). −43.6% YTD and −49.9% from the $258.93 close of 13 Jan. After the release it traded ~$106 (−18.2%; low $105.00), below the $121.84 closing low of 27 Mar. After the Q2 print (30 Jul) the stock fell 21.0% the next day, then rose 5.1% over 21 sessions. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Revenue $895M, +53% YoY, against ~$875–886M consensus. Advertising $847M (+54%), Other (mainly data licensing) $48M (+35%). US +50%, International +67%. Growth is decelerating: +68% → +70% → +69% → +61% → +53% over five quarters, with Q4 guided to +38–42%. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Gross margin 91.5% (+50 bps). Adjusted EBITDA $402M, a 44.9% margin (40.3% a year ago); GAAP operating margin 29.2%; net income $283M (+74%), diluted EPS $1.40 (+75%). Free cash flow $363M (41% margin). Stock-based compensation was $136M (15% of revenue). | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | At $129.60: 26.4× TTM EPS ($4.90), 8.1× TTM sales against a 4.5× peer median, and ~16× annualised adjusted EBITDA. At ~$106: 21.6× and 6.6×. Consensus target $219.29 (pre-print), 69% above the close, before post-print cuts. | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | DAUq 130.3M (+12% YoY, flat QoQ); WAUq 515.2M (+16%). US DAUq 50.7M, −2% YoY and −2.5M QoQ; International 79.6M (+24%). Search referral traffic fell "meaningfully", by over 1M referrals a week in October, and Reddit warned Q4 DAUq could fall by a low-double-digit percentage. ARPU $6.87 (+36%); US ARPU $13.82 (+53%). | Bearish |
| Balance sheet | Cash and securities $3.03B; debt is ~$21M of leases. Q3 buybacks $100M (670k shares at $149.81). Fully diluted shares 206.3M, −0.3% QoQ. Operating cash flow $364M (+96%). | Bullish |
| Regime state | Q3 Quiet Range, entered on 29 Oct: Persistency −0.032 (the lowest reading of the window), Volatility −0.487 (25.7th percentile). On the boundary: Persistency is within 0.05 of the axis, so the call is provisional. It is the first negative Persistency reading in 21 months of data. As of 29 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag); it predates the after-hours fall. | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 93.0% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 −0.264 (R² 7.0%); Market Driver 1 ~0. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.35 (beta 1.96); with Snap 0.50, the communication services sector 0.43, Pinterest 0.37, Meta 0.36, Alphabet 0.25. Company news decides the month. As of 29 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | User erosion becomes the story. A guided low-double-digit fall in Q4 DAUq would be Reddit's first sustained user decline as a public company. Third-party traffic data in November will be watched closely. Post-print target cuts will follow from a $219 consensus, and the Google data-licensing renewal is an open question (Wells Fargo cut its odds in September). | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | The 30 Oct session (first full reaction) and post-print target resets. Then third-party traffic data through November, peer prints from Pinterest and Snap (early Nov, expected), and options expiry (20 Nov). Insider 10b5-1 sales by the CEO and COO have run monthly. The next Reddit report (~early Feb 2027) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. The business is still compounding: revenue +53%, a 45% EBITDA margin, $3B of net cash, and pricing per user up 36%. But the market pays for users, and Reddit has told it that users will fall in Q4 because Google is sending fewer visitors. The ~18% gap prices much of that. A post-gap recovery like July's is possible, but monthly traffic data will be harder to look through than a one-off guide. Composite 7.5 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (9 – 29 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came after the close on 29 Oct; the after-hours price (~$106 at 20:00 ET, on ~0.6M shares) is an indication, not a session close. Consensus: StockStory ($877M revenue), Shacknews ($886M, $1.31 EPS), Investing.com ($875M, $1.33 EPS, Q4 revenue $1.05B) and the vendor ($1.33 EPS).
Reddit delivered a strong quarter on every financial line, then said the one input it cannot control, Google's search traffic, is working against it. For the next month the stock will trade on user and traffic data rather than revenue, and that data is now pointing down.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.75). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.13 + 1.30 + 1.62 + 0.84 + 0.68 + 0.55 + 0.38 = 7.5 (7.49). The composite is near the top of the Mixed range because the financial dimensions are strong; the verdict stays Mixed because the risk that matters inside the window, user and traffic decline, sits in one dimension.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic data | Operational | Monthly estimates confirm the DAUq decline | Yes |
| Target cuts | Market | Consensus resets from $219 | Yes |
| Google search and AI changes | Competitive | Fewer referrals, especially logged-out web | Possible |
| Insider sales | Market | Monthly 10b5-1 sales by the CEO and COO | Possible |
| Index beta | Market | Beta 1.96 amplifies market moves | Possible |
| AI answer engines | Structural | Permanent loss of logged-out discovery | Structural |
| Data-licensing renewal | Financial | Price of the Google and OpenAI deals at renewal | Structural |
| EU regulation | Regulatory | DSA obligations as a VLOP | Structural |
The risks inside the window are all about evidence on users: monthly traffic numbers, analysts' revised models and anything Google does. The structural question, whether AI search permanently shrinks Reddit's reach, cannot be settled in a month, but each data point will be read as an answer to it.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 29 Oct 2026 | $895M | +2.0% | $1.40 | +5.6% | ~−18% (after hours) |
| Q2 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | $805M | n/c | $1.25 | +29.6% | −21.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 30 Apr 2026 | $663M | n/c | $1.01 | +26.1% | +13.1% |
| Q4 2025 | 5 Feb 2026 | $726M | n/c | $1.24 | +16.5% | −7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | 30 Oct 2025 | $585M | n/c | $0.80 | +20.7% | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | 31 Jul 2025 | $500M | n/c | $0.45 | n/c | +17.5% |
Reports come after the close, so the reaction is the next session's close-to-close move; Q3 2026 is the after-hours indication (~$106 against $129.60). Revenue consensus for Q3 2026 per StockStory ($877M); earlier quarters not compiled (n/c). EPS surprise percentages are the vendor's (Yahoo), whose estimate history does not always match GAAP figures; Q2 2025 is omitted for that reason. 21-session moves after each next-day close, oldest to newest: +16.7%, +6.6%, −4.1%, +1.6%, +5.1%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | 1/1 sourced | 100% (11/11) | Quarterly revenue and adj. EBITDA |
| Meta | n/c | n/c | Quarterly revenue; annual expenses |
| n/c | n/c | Quarterly revenue and adj. EBITDA | |
| Snap | n/c | n/c | Quarterly revenue and adj. EBITDA |
| Alphabet | n/c | n/c | No formal guidance |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Peer beat histories could not be retrieved: the vendor's quote service was unavailable during this session.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 revenue | $1,000–1,030M | +38–42% YoY; midpoint ~2–3% below ~$1.04–1.05B consensus |
| Q4 2026 adj. EBITDA | $480–510M | ~48–50% margin; midpoint ~3% below ~$509M |
| Q4 2026 DAUq | Low-double-digit decline possible | If October referral trends persist |
| Strategy | Logged-in and app users | Over 80% of monetisation; user marketing to offset search |
| Capital return | $100M in Q3 | Average price $149.81 |
| Next quarterly report | ~early Feb 2027 | Outside the window |
Reddit beats its EPS consensus every quarter, by wide margins. Twice this year, though, the stock fell about 20% on a beat, both times because of search traffic. The next report is outside the window; the guided user decline will be tested by outside traffic data first.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 (print) | StockStory, Investing.com, Shacknews | Bearish | Revenue and EPS beat, but Q4 guide below consensus and a user-decline warning; whisper EPS $1.51 |
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Truist, Zacks | Bullish | Truist reiterated Buy; Zacks upgraded to Strong Buy |
| Sep 2026 | DA Davidson, BNP Paribas Exane | Mixed | DA Davidson Buy, $200 → $185; BNP initiated Neutral, $180 |
| Sep 2026 | Wells Fargo | Bearish | Lowered its odds of a successful Google AI deal renewal |
| 31 Jul 2026 | B. Riley, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank | Mixed | B. Riley Buy, $250 → $270; JPMorgan Neutral, $200 → $185; Wells Fargo EW, $187 → $142; Deutsche Bank $200 |
| Consensus | 29–34 analysts | Bullish | "Moderate Buy"; mean target $219.29 (MarketBeat) or $212.95 (Stockanalysis.com), pre-print |
Sources: MarketBeat (29 Oct 2026), Stockanalysis.com (27 Oct 2026), StockStory, Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, Shacknews. Post-print target changes had not been published at the time of writing (before the 30 Oct open).
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Jennifer Wong, COO | Sale (10b5-1) | 60,000 | $150.55 | $9.0M | Scheduled; 5.6% of holding |
| Aug – Oct 2026 | Jennifer Wong, COO | Sales (10b5-1), total | 195,000 | ~$164.94 | $32.2M | Monthly programme |
| Aug – 13 Oct 2026 | Steve Huffman, CEO | Sales (10b5-1), total | 105,924 | ~$158.32 | $16.8M | Monthly programme |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Robert Sauerberg (director) | Sale | 5,128 | $159.92 | $0.8M | Small; 16% of holding |
| Q3 2026 | Company | Buyback | ~670,000 | $149.81 | $100M | Offsets ~2× insider selling |
| Oct 2026 | Institutional holders | Schedule 13G/A (21 and 27 Oct) | — | — | — | Routine updates by large holders |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR (Aug – Oct 2026; 21 filings parsed), MarketBeat. Insiders sold ~$49.8M of stock from August to October, all executives under pre-arranged plans; there were no open-market purchases. Insider ownership is ~28%.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~early Feb 2027 | Reddit (expected) | Q4 2026 results: the first reported test of the DAUq warning | No |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry after an ~18% gap | Yes |
| Nov 2026 | Third-party traffic trackers (expected) | October and early-November visits and app usage; moved the stock in September | Yes |
| Early Nov 2026 | Pinterest, Snap (expected) | Q3 results; social ad pricing and user read-across (0.37 and 0.50 correlations) | Just before / Yes |
| 30 Oct – early Nov 2026 | Sell-side | Post-print target and estimate resets from a ~$213–219 consensus | Just before |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Reddit release | Q3: revenue $895M (+53%), EPS $1.40; Q4 guide below consensus; DAUq warning; ~−18% after hours | No, sets the base |
| 14 Oct 2026 | SEC Form 4 | COO Jennifer Wong sells 60,000 shares at $150.55 (10b5-1) | No, sets the base |
| 30 Sep 2026 | TechCrunch | Reddit ends RSS feeds and public API access to deter AI scrapers | No, sets the base |
| Mid-Sep 2026 | Wells Fargo | Lowers its odds of a Google AI data-deal renewal | No, sets the base |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Reuters | EU designates Reddit a Very Large Online Platform | No, sets the base |
| 18 Aug 2026 | Business Wire | Reddit joins the S&P 500 | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 30 Oct 2026 report date (9 – 29 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Just before: the 30 Oct regular session, the first full reaction, and the wave of post-print target cuts. Early November: Pinterest and Snap results, on social ad demand. Through November: third-party traffic data, the closest real-time check on the DAUq warning. 20 Nov: options expiry. Reddit has no scheduled event of its own before February.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | $129.60 | $24.9B | $3.09B | 8.07× | +53.0% | Moderate Buy · $219.29 | Negative |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $283.82 | $3,471B | $445.9B | 7.78× | +24.2% | n/c | Neutral |
| Meta (META) | $624.52 | $1,597B | $241.6B | 6.61× | +26.1% | n/c | Mixed |
| Pinterest (PINS) | $19.92 | $11.3B | $4.56B | 2.47× | +18.2% | n/c | Negative |
| Snap (SNAP) | $5.68 | $9.6B | $6.35B | 1.50× | +18.9% | n/c | Negative |
| Peer median | — | $804B | $124.0B | 4.54× | +21.6% | — | — |
Prices are at the 29 Oct 2026 close; RDDT traded ~$106 after hours. RDDT revenue is TTM to Sep 2026 from company releases; market cap uses 192.4M basic shares ($26.7B on 206.3M fully diluted). Peer revenue is the sum of the latest four quarters in vendor statements (Meta to Sep 2026; others to Jun 2026). Market cap is vendor share count × close (derived). Peer consensus views were not available (n/c) because the vendor's quote service was down; RDDT consensus is from MarketBeat.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zacks Research | — | — | ~27 Oct 2026 | — | Strong Buy (upgrade) | ▲ Raised |
| Truist | — | — | 26 Oct 2026 | — | Buy | ► Maintained |
| DA Davidson | $185 | $200 | ~late Sep 2026 | +42.7% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| BNP Paribas Exane | $180 | — | 18 Sep 2026 | +38.9% | Neutral (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| B. Riley | $270 | $250 | 31 Jul 2026 | +108.3% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Deutsche Bank | $200 | — | 31 Jul 2026 | +54.3% | Not stated | ► Set |
| JPMorgan | $185 | $200 | 31 Jul 2026 | +42.7% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Wells Fargo | $142 | $187 | 31 Jul 2026 | +9.6% | Equal Weight | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $129.60 close on 29 Oct 2026; at ~$106 each is about 22 points higher. Sources: MarketBeat (29 Oct 2026) and Stockanalysis.com (dates marked ~ estimated from relative timestamps). Deutsche Bank's rating was not stated in the source. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $129.60 |
| Consensus target | $219.29 |
| Median target | $185.00 |
| High target | $270.00 |
| Low target | $142.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +69.2% |
| Implied downside to low | +9.6% |
| Analysts contributing | 29 |
Consensus from MarketBeat (29 ratings, pre-print); Stockanalysis.com shows $212.95 from 34 analysts. Median, high and low are from the six sourced targets above, because the full distribution was not available. Even the low target is above the after-hours price.
| $142 |
| $219 |
| $185 |
| $270 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $500M | +27.3% | +77.7% | $0.45 | 90.8% | ~$167M | 13.6% | Beat | +17.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $585M | +17.1% | +68% | $0.80 | 91.0% | $236M | 23.7% | Beat | +7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $726M | +24.1% | +70% | $1.24 | 91.9% | n/d | 31.9% | Beat | −7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $663M | −8.6% | +69% | $1.01 | 91.5% | n/d | 27.6% | Beat | +13.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $805M | +21.3% | +61% | $1.25 | 91.3% | n/d | 28.8% | Beat | −21.0% |
| Q3 2026 | $895M | +11.2% | +53% | $1.40 | 91.5% | $402M | 29.2% | Beat | ~−18% (after hours) |
Margin is the GAAP operating margin; Q3 2026 operating income (~$262M) is derived from the reconciliation. Adjusted EBITDA is company-reported; Q1 and Q2 2026 combined were $609M (nine-month $1,011M less Q3), and the split and Q4 2025 were not in the materials reviewed (n/d). Q2 2025 is approximate (~). YoY growth for Q3 2025 – Q2 2026 is as shown in the shareholder letter.
Revenue nearly doubled over six quarters, to $895M, with Q4 (seasonally strongest) guided above $1B. The GAAP operating margin rose from 13.6% to ~29% and has held at 28–32% for four quarters.
| Metric | 30 Jun 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 10.49 | 11.56 | 12.63 | 1.5–3.0 target · far above; cash-rich |
| Quick ratio | ~10.4 | ~11.5 | ~12.6 | ≥1.0 · passed; no inventory |
| Cash ratio | 8.25 | 9.13 | 10.46 | Cash and securities $2.79B (Jun); $3.03B at 30 Sep |
Derived from reported balance sheets (vendor statements; September cash from the Q3 release). Quick ratio approximates current assets less prepaid items (~).
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT (Jun 26; cash Sep 26) | 10.49 | +$3.01B | Very strong |
| Pinterest (Jun 26) | 3.81 | +$0.08B | Strong |
| Snap (Jun 26) | 2.94 | −$1.57B | Adequate; convertible debt |
| Alphabet (Jun 26) | 2.72 | +$129.7B | Very strong |
| Meta (Sep 26) | 1.90 | −$32.4B | Strong; borrowing for AI capex |
| Peer median | 2.83 | −$0.74B | — |
| Metric | 30 Jun 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.013 | Lower is safer · lease liabilities only |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.011 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | n/m | n/m | n/m | >2.5 healthy · net interest income ($27M in Q3) |
| Debt service coverage | n/m | n/m | n/m | >1.25 healthy · no debt service |
Debt is ~$21–27M of lease liabilities. Reddit earns net interest income on its cash, so coverage ratios are not meaningful.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 91.5% | 91.5% | 91.0% | 91.2% | 90.5% | ▲ |
| Operating margin | 29.2% | 29.4% | 23.7% | 20.1% | −43.1% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 31.7% | 32.1% | 27.8% | 24.0% | −37.2% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 44.9% | 42.8% (9M) | 40.3% | n/d | n/d | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 7.4% (q) | 27.9% | n/d | 19.0% | −24.6% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 8.1% (q) | 30.8% | n/d | 20.9% | n/m | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 32.1% × 0.87 × 1.10 | — | 24.0% × 0.79 × 1.10 | — | Margin-led; no leverage |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios derived from reported figures. TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026; the adjusted EBITDA column uses nine months because Q4 2025 was not available. FY2024 losses reflect IPO-related stock compensation; equity was negative before the IPO, so FY2024 ROE is not meaningful.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 60.9% | 33.1% | 54.8% | 39.9% | 43.6% | 1 of 5 |
| Meta | 81.0% | 32.9% | 31.1% | 44.7% | 28.2% | 2 of 5 |
| RDDT (TTM) | 91.5% | 29.4% | 32.1% | 42.8% (9M) | 30.8% | 3 of 5 |
| 79.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 4 of 5 | |
| Snap | 57.3% | −5.1% | −4.9% | 0.2% | −15.5% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 70.2% | 19.6% | 18.3% | 24.2% | 18.5% | — |
Peer ratios are derived from the latest four quarters of vendor statements; peer EBITDA is vendor-normalised (GAAP basis, not adjusted for stock compensation). Alphabet's net margin includes large investment gains. Rank is by operating margin; Reddit has the highest gross margin in the group.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.87 | 0.79 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets (~$3.55B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$1.21M | — | On 2,555 employees (Stockanalysis.com) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | +75% | — | $1.40 against $0.80 |
| ARPU growth (Q3 YoY) | +36% | — | $6.87; US $13.82 (+53%) |
| Free cash flow margin (Q3) | 40.5% | 31.3% (Q3 25) | $363M |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | — | Buybacks instead ($100M in Q3) |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | 0.87 | ~$1.21M | 2,555 | +75% | 0.00% | 1 of 5 |
| Meta | 0.52 | ~$3.18M | ~76,000 | n/m | ~0.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Alphabet | 0.55 | ~$2.38M | ~187,000 | n/m | ~0.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Snap | 0.85 | ~$1.30M | ~4,900 | n/m | 0.00% | 4 of 5 |
| 0.97 | ~$876k | ~5,200 | n/m | 0.00% | 5 of 5 | |
| Peer median | 0.70 | ~$1.84M | ~40,600 | n/m | ~0.15% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over average total assets (derived). Peer employee counts and dividend yields are approximate (~), from latest annual reports and dividend rates, because the vendor's profile data was unavailable. Peer EPS growth is not meaningful: Meta and Alphabet are distorted by one-off items and Pinterest and Snap by losses.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAUq (total) | 130.3M | 116.0M | +12% | Flat on Q2 (130.3M) |
| US DAUq | 50.7M | 51.6M | −2% | Q2: 53.2M |
| International DAUq | 79.6M | 64.4M | +24% | Machine translation driving reach |
| WAUq (total) | 515.2M | 443.8M | +16% | Q2: 514.6M |
| ARPU (total) | $6.87 | ~$5.04 | +36% | Pricing and impressions both up |
| US ARPU | $13.82 | $9.04 | +53% | Monetisation offsets the US user decline |
| Advertising revenue | $847M | ~$550M | +54% | Lower-funnel strength; Travel and B2C Services |
| Other revenue (incl. data licensing) | $48M | ~$36M | +35% | Renewal timing is a watch item |
From the Q3 2026 release and shareholder letter (SEC 8-K exhibits 99.1 and 99.2). Year-ago advertising and other revenue and ARPU are derived from the reported growth rates (~).
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 26.4× | TTM diluted EPS $4.90; 21.6× at ~$106; peer median 21.2× |
| P/E forward (vendor) | ~22.7× | Stockanalysis.com, 27 Oct, at ~$138 |
| Price / book | 7.6× | Equity $3.29B (Jun 26) |
| Price / sales TTM | 8.07× | 6.6× at ~$106; peer median 4.54× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA | ~16× | EV ~$21.9B over 9M adj. EBITDA annualised ($1.35B) |
| FCF yield (Q3 annualised) | ~5.8% | $363M × 4 over market cap (derived) |
| Net cash / market cap | 12.1% | ~15% at ~$106 |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | $129.60 | $24.9B | $3.09B | 8.07× | +78% |
| Alphabet | $283.82 | $3,471B | $445.9B | 7.78× | +71% |
| Meta | $624.52 | $1,597B | $241.6B | 6.61× | +46% |
| $19.92 | $11.3B | $4.56B | 2.47× | −46% | |
| Snap | $5.68 | $9.6B | $6.35B | 1.50× | −67% |
| Peer median | — | $804B | $124.0B | 4.54× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | $4.90 | 26.4× | +53.0% | 0.35 | Cheap for its growth if users stabilise |
| Meta | $29.43 | 21.2× | +26.1% | n/m | AI capex weighing on margins |
| Alphabet | $19.97 | 14.2× | +24.2% | n/m | Earnings inflated by investment gains |
| $0.44 | 45.2× | +18.2% | n/m | Thin GAAP profit | |
| Snap | −$0.19 | n/m | +18.9% | n/m | Loss-making |
| Peer median | — | 21.2× | +21.6% | n/m | — |
Peer TTM EPS is TTM net income over vendor shares (derived). RDDT PEG uses Q3 EPS growth (+75%).
On revenue Reddit is priced like Alphabet; on earnings growth it is far cheaper than anyone in the group. Which way the market leans depends on whether falling traffic turns a pricing story into a shrinking-audience story, and that question is now open.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Tracked regimes daily (RDDT is a live-portfolio name). Statistics use the full window, 6 Feb 2025 – 29 Oct 2026 (435 observations); the trace plots 218 points, every second session. As of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 30 Oct 2026 report date. The reading predates the after-hours fall, which will lift Volatility sharply.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.0324 | 0.1723 | 0.0716 | −0.0324 | 0.3351 | 0.2 | The window low; slid from +0.06 on 26 Oct during the pre-print selloff |
| Volatility | −0.4869 | 0.0023 | 0.5779 | −0.9954 | 1.0000 | 25.7 | Subdued but rising, from −0.85 on 26 Oct |
Currently in Q3 Quiet Range, held 1 session (29 Oct), after 24 sampled sessions of Quiet Drift (21 Aug – 27 Oct). Persistency sits within 0.05 of the axis, so the reading is on the boundary between Quiet Range and Quiet Drift and the call is provisional. The Tracked tab uses a wider Volatility scale (−1 to +1) than the Individual tab. As of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 50.1% | Sep–Oct 2025, Jan–Mar 2026 decline, Jul–Aug 2026 |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 0.0% | Not visited in the window |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 0.2% | 29 Oct 2026 only |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 49.7% | May–Jul 2026 and 21 Aug – 27 Oct 2026 |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 8 | Trends calm down after each earnings move |
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 7 | And re-accelerate on news |
| Quiet drift → Quiet range | 1 | 29 Oct 2026: Persistency turns negative |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Drift had a median of +8.1% (70% positive, 196 observations) and from Volatile Trend −5.5% (38%, 218). The new Quiet Range state has no history (thin sample, no conclusion drawn). Unconditionally the median was +2.0% (53% positive), in a stock that fell ~40% over the window. As of 29 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. For 21 months Reddit alternated between two trending states, and its calm drifts were followed by gains. On 29 Oct Persistency crossed zero for the first time, and the after-hours move will push Volatility up, most likely toward Volatile Chop, a state Reddit has not visited in this window. These statistics describe 6 Feb 2025 – 29 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.001 | 0.0 | 0.289 | −0.312 | 0.384 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.013 | 0.0 | −0.300 | −0.364 | 0.424 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.051 | 0.3 | 0.083 | −0.193 | 0.402 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.050 | 0.3 | 0.056 | −0.388 | 0.277 | Variable | Negative |
| Market Driver 5 | 0.019 | 0.0 | 0.202 | −0.363 | 0.309 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.264 | 7.0 | −0.121 | −0.532 | 0.136 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.040 | 0.2 | 0.004 | −0.290 | 0.334 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.038 | 0.1 | 0.016 | −0.289 | 0.322 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of RDDT against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 22 Mar 2024 (listing) – 29 Oct 2026, 654 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1 explains 7.0% of variance; its rolling reading has ranged from −0.53 to +0.14 and is −0.12 now. Market Driver 1's rolling reading has risen to +0.29. Drivers as of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00007 | 0.025 | 0.9% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.38771 | −0.266 | 99.1% |
Reddit is an idiosyncratic name with high beta. The index adds noise, but the month will be decided by traffic data and analyst revisions; hedging with the market or with social-media peers would offset little of the risk.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against RDDT daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. On the latest plotted reading (28 Oct) Market Driver 1 is +0.30 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.11. As of 29 Oct 2026.
RDDT daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 22 Mar 2024 (listing) – 28 Oct 2026, 653 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 33), so none is marked thin, but the history is short and several groups' buckets are small. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 201 | 30.8% | +76.9% | +104.4% | 81.5% | 1.28 | 47.3% | +26.24% | −23.56% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 132 | 20.2% | +19.5% | +40.4% | 80.3% | 0.50 | 47.0% | +35.05% | −9.83% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 197 | 30.2% | +22.8% | +30.0% | 78.7% | 0.38 | 53.3% | +22.09% | −22.22% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 123 | 18.8% | +2.9% | +6.1% | 71.2% | 0.09 | 45.5% | +12.29% | −12.68% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 151 | 23.1% | +32.7% | +60.3% | 84.7% | 0.71 | 46.4% | +26.24% | −23.56% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 128 | 19.6% | +21.4% | +46.4% | 75.5% | 0.62 | 45.3% | +13.04% | −12.68% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 214 | 32.8% | +34.3% | +41.6% | 77.3% | 0.54 | 52.3% | +22.09% | −22.22% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 160 | 24.5% | +23.4% | +39.3% | 76.6% | 0.51 | 48.8% | +35.05% | −9.83% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 55 | 8.4% | +20.4% | +134.0% | 70.8% | 1.89 | 54.5% | +12.29% | −7.97% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 243 | 37.2% | +93.6% | +98.4% | 81.5% | 1.21 | 49.8% | +35.05% | −23.56% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 90 | 13.8% | +4.8% | +14.1% | 87.4% | 0.16 | 42.2% | +26.24% | −15.78% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 265 | 40.6% | +9.3% | +8.8% | 74.0% | 0.12 | 48.7% | +22.09% | −22.22% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded RDDT return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for RDDT | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +76.9% | 1.28 | 1.19 | 39 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +32.7% | 0.71 | 0.20 | 39 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +4.8% | 0.16 | 1.77 | 33 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +51.7% | 0.67 | 3.61 | 112 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −21.3% | −0.72 | 3.23 | 2 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −21.3% | −0.50 | 3.43 | 88 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +96.4% | 3.06 | 5.57 | 3 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | +11.6% | 0.17 | 7.87 | 3 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +52.5% | 0.36 | 9.06 | 60 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −16.1% | −0.77 | 1.86 | 5 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −18.8% | −0.26 | 6.95 | 123 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −3.1% | −0.10 | 2.37 | 11 |
| Bonds mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | +28.0% | 0.59 | 11.79 | 3 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −5.4% | −0.11 | 12.43 | 22 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5. With 2.6 years of history, the very large spreads (Bonds long 12.4, Bonds mid 11.8, Gold 9.1) reflect where a few large earnings days fell, not a stable relationship. Market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 22 Mar 2024 – 28 Oct 2026, a short window for a stock with ~80% annualised volatility, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days, but several are close, and a handful of earnings-day moves dominate the totals. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 26 | Reddit reports Q3: revenue $895M (+53%), net income $283M, EPS $1.40; Q4 revenue guide $1.00–1.03B (company release) | Mixed |
| 29 Oct 26 | Search referral traffic fell meaningfully, with declines accelerating; Q4 DAUq could fall by a low-double-digit percentage (shareholder letter, Investing.com) | Negative |
| 29 Oct 26 | "Surprises with Q3 2026 sales but stock drops" as Q4 guidance misses (StockStory) | Negative |
| 29 Oct 26 | Beats revenue and EPS estimates but misses the $1.51 whisper number (Shacknews) | Mixed |
| 29 Oct 26 | Shares fall ~17–18% after hours (MoneyCheck, market data) | Negative |
| ~27 Oct 26 | Zacks upgrades to Strong Buy; consensus target $219.29 (MarketBeat) | Positive |
| 26 Oct 26 | Truist favours owning the stock ahead of Q3 (Invezz) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | COO Jennifer Wong sells $9.0M of stock under a 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4) | Negative |
| 30 Sep 26 | Reddit ends RSS feeds and public API access because of AI bots (TechCrunch) | Neutral |
| Mid-Sep 26 | Wells Fargo lowers its odds of a Google AI deal renewal (Stockanalysis.com) | Negative |
| 10 Sep 26 | Stock rises ~6% on August user growth data (Invezz) | Positive |
| 30 Jul 26 | Q2 beat, but "choppy" search traffic warning; stock −21% the next day (TechCrunch, TIKR) | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release and shareholder letter (SEC 8-K exhibits 99.1–99.2), Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, StockStory, Shacknews, MoneyCheck, MarketBeat, Invezz and TechCrunch (via Stockanalysis.com), SEC Form 4, TIKR. The narrative has moved from "choppy search traffic" (July) to "search traffic is falling and users will drop" (now).
| Field | Reddit, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Reddit, Inc. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: RDDT · IPO 21 Mar 2024 at $34; S&P 500 member since Aug 2026 | Pinterest and Snap NYSE; Meta and Alphabet Nasdaq |
| Domicile | United States (Delaware; headquarters San Francisco, CA) | — |
| Sector / industry | Communication Services · Internet content and information | Pinterest and Snap the closest in scale |
| Market cap | $24.9B (192.4M basic shares × $129.60); $26.7B fully diluted | Above Pinterest and Snap combined |
| Employees | 2,555 | Pinterest ~5,200; Snap ~4,900 |
| TTM revenue | $3.09B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Smallest of the five |
| Revenue model | Advertising (95% of Q3 revenue) and Other (5%), mainly data licensing to AI companies; US 80%, International 20% | Peers almost entirely advertising |
| Key differentiators | 27B+ posts and comments of human conversation; 130M daily and 515M weekly uniques; the highest gross margin in the group (91.5%); data-licensing relationships with Google and OpenAI | Depends on Google search for reach |
| CIK | 0001713445 | — |
| Website | redditinc.com | — |
Reddit's third quarter was strong on every financial measure: revenue +53%, a 45% adjusted EBITDA margin, net income +74%, $3.0B of net cash and ARPU up 36%. But it said Google search is sending it meaningfully fewer visitors, that US users fell 2%, and that Q4 daily users could drop by a low-double-digit percentage; the Q4 guide came in below consensus. The stock fell ~18% after hours to ~$106, below its March low. At ~22× TTM earnings for 75% EPS growth it is not expensive, and after the July sell-off it recovered. This time the market will judge the stock on monthly traffic data, and its own regime has just turned mean-reverting. The view turns bullish if November traffic data show referrals stabilising and RDDT closes back above $129.60, its pre-print close. It turns bearish if the user decline steepens and the stock breaks $100.