Close 27 Oct 2026
$168.18
Q3 2026 revenue rose 4% to $24.19B, slightly below the ~$24.37B consensus, and the core loss of $0.34 a share was wider than the ~$0.20 expected. Boeing will hold the 737 at 47 a month into 2027, move 52 a month to the second half of 2027, miss ~500 737 deliveries this year and guide 2027 free cash flow to ~$3B, against roughly $5.5B on the Street. The stock fell 10.7% to $168.18, a 52-week closing low. Over the next 10–30 days the question is whether oversold conditions bring a bounce or target cuts and a weak market-regime map extend the slide.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $168.18 on 27 Oct, down 10.7% on the release and at a 52-week closing low. −8.8% over 30 days, −22.5% YTD and −33.3% from the $252.15 high of 23 Jan; the 200-day average is $218.07. It traded ~$166 early on 28 Oct. In the 21 sessions after four of its last five prints BA fell, by 4–12%. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Revenue $24.19B, +4% YoY, against ~$24.37B consensus (−0.7%). Defense +15% to $7.94B and Services +4% to $5.57B; Commercial −3% to $10.72B on 161 deliveries (+1%) and a weaker mix (777 deliveries 5, from 9). 9M revenue +8%. | Mixed |
| Profitability | GAAP operating margin 1.5% (core 0.8%), against −20.5% a year ago, when a 777X charge hit. Commercial Airplanes lost $697M (−6.5% margin), about twice the expected loss, on future rate-adjustment and supply-chain costs. Core loss $0.34 a share against ~$0.20; net loss $116M. | Bearish |
| Valuation vs peers | P/S 1.40× against a 2.35× peer median; EV $158B. Trailing P/E (17.4×) is inflated by the 2025 sale gain and is not meaningful. On the new cash path the FCF yield is ~2.3% for 2027 ($3B) and ~4.5% for 2028 ($6B). The pre-print mean target of $257 is 53% above the close, but cuts started today. | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | 737 held at 47 a month into 2027; 52 a month moved to H2 2027; 2026 737 deliveries will fall short of ~500. 787 at 8 a month, engine-limited toward 10. 777X first delivery 2027, assuming mid-2027 certification. Positives: 737-7 and 737-10 certified, 300 net orders, record $745B backlog. | Bearish |
| Balance sheet | Debt $45.9B against cash and investments of $20.7B: net debt $25.2B. Equity is only $6.5B (debt/equity 7.0×). $10B of credit lines are undrawn. Q3 FCF of $464M benefited from working-capital timing after ~$0.7B of DOJ settlement payments; YTD FCF is −$359M. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q3 Quiet Range: Persistency −0.071 (2.4th percentile of the window), Volatility −0.448 (5.2nd). Held 9 sessions since 15 Oct. Persistency turned negative on 8 Oct for the first time in the window, after a year of trend-persistent readings. Not borderline. As of 27 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag); the reading does not yet show the 10.7% drop's effect on Volatility. | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 81.3% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 dominates (−0.431, R² 18.6%); Market Driver 1 is ~0. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.42 (beta 1.17), with industrials 0.47, and only 0.34–0.40 with GE, Airbus and RTX. Boeing's own news decides its month. As of 27 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Re-rating after a guidance reset. Five firms cut targets this morning by up to $70 (Baird $300 → $230, Morgan Stanley $225 → $195). The October deliveries report (~10 Nov) is the next hard read on the 737 rate. The market-regime map is the weakest seen for BA: US market, SP500 and Global market are all in Quiet Drift, BA's worst state for each. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Just before: FOMC (28 Oct) and Airbus nine-month results (late Oct, expected). Inside: Boeing's October orders and deliveries (~10 Nov), October CPI (mid-Nov) and options expiry (20 Nov). The next Boeing report (~26 Jan 2027) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Bearish, with bounce risk. The quarter itself was close to expectations on revenue and cash. The damage is the timeline: a slower 737 ramp, a 2027 cash outlook about $2.5B below the Street, and $10B of FCF pushed to 2029. Target cuts are only starting, and the market regimes BA is in have historically been followed by weak 21-day returns. The stock is oversold after an 11% day, so a short bounce is plausible, but the evidence favours lower highs over the window. Composite 4.5 / 10. Bearish | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (7 – 27 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. Revenue consensus per 24/7 Wall St. ($24.37B); core EPS consensus per vendor (−$0.20) and press (−$0.21 to −$0.24). Street 2027 FCF (~$5.5B) per INDmoney. Peer moves are 30-day changes to 27 Oct.
Nothing in the quarter was a disaster; the problem is that the recovery is a year later than investors had priced. A stock valued on 2027–28 cash flow has just had that cash flow cut roughly in half for 2027. Analysts will spend the next weeks resetting targets, and that process usually weighs on the price before it stabilises.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (4.75). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.38 + 0.90 + 0.63 + 0.48 + 0.48 + 0.30 + 0.35 = 4.5 (4.51).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context. For a stock that has just fallen 11%, the upside risk to a bearish view is listed too.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target cuts | Market | Consensus target resets from $257 toward $200–230 | Yes |
| October deliveries | Operational | 737 output against the 47-a-month plan | Yes |
| Market regimes | Market | Quiet Drift in US, SP500 and Global markets; weak forward history | Yes |
| Supply chain / FAA | Operational | Wing, fuselage and Everett bottlenecks; regulator findings | Possible |
| Oversold rebound | Market | Short-term reversal against the bearish view | Possible |
| 777X certification | Structural | Mid-2027 certification underpins the 2027 cash outlook | Structural |
| Leverage | Financial | Debt/equity 7.0×; interest above operating profit | Structural |
| Spirit integration | Strategic | Fuselage quality and output | Structural |
The risks that can bite inside a month are about the reset being digested: analysts cutting targets, a monthly delivery number that tests the new plan, and market regimes that have not historically favoured BA. The main risk to a bearish view is a sharp oversold bounce.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | $24,188M | −0.7% | −$0.34 | −69% | −10.7% |
| Q2 2026 | 28 Jul 2026 | $24,560M | +2.1% | −$0.76 | −141% | +4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | 22 Apr 2026 | $22,217M | +1.6% | −$0.20 | +70% | +5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | 27 Jan 2026 | $23,948M | n/c | $9.92 | n/m (sale gain) | −1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | 29 Oct 2025 | $23,270M | +4.4% | −$7.47 | −214% | −4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | 29 Jul 2025 | $22,749M | n/c | −$1.24 | +2% | −4.4% |
EPS is core (non-GAAP) loss per share. Q4 2025 includes the gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions sale; Q3 2025 includes the 777X charge. Reports come before the open, so the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. Revenue consensus: 24/7 Wall St. for Q3 2026; Zacks for Q2 and Q1 2026; Longport for Q3 2025. EPS surprise percentages are the vendor's (Yahoo); on losses a large negative figure means a much wider loss than expected. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +4.2%, −11.5%, −6.2%, −5.0%, −4.3%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| BA | 75% (3/4 sourced) | 50% (6/12) | Annual FCF and production rates |
| GE Aerospace | n/c | 100% (12/12) | Annual EPS, FCF and revenue growth |
| RTX | n/c | 100% (12/12) | Annual sales, EPS and FCF |
| Lockheed Martin | n/c | 75% (9/12) | Annual sales, EPS and FCF |
| Airbus | n/c | n/c | Annual deliveries, EBIT adjusted, FCF |
| Peer median (last 12) | n/c | 100% | — |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| FY26 free cash flow | ~$2B | Narrowed from $1–3B; Q4 needs ~$2.4B |
| FY26 737 deliveries | Below ~500 | Target withdrawn; 367 delivered in 9M |
| 737 production rate | 47 / month | Held into 2027; 52 a month in H2 2027 |
| 787 production rate | 8 → 10 / month | Engine supply sets the pace |
| 777X | First delivery 2027 | Assumes certification by mid-2027 |
| FCF path | $3B / $6B / $10B | 2027 / 2028 / 2029; Street had ~$5.5B for 2027 |
| Next quarterly report | ~26 Jan 2027 | Outside the window |
Boeing's earnings misses are not new: it has missed core EPS in half of the last twelve quarters. What changed on 27 Oct is the multi-year cash path, which is the basis of most price targets. The next report and any guidance update fall outside the window; the monthly delivery data is the only scheduled company read inside it.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 (post-print) | Baird, Susquehanna, TD Cowen | Mixed | Ratings held at Outperform / Positive / Buy; targets cut $300 → $230, $285 → $250, $240 → $210 |
| 28 Oct 2026 (post-print) | Morgan Stanley, RBC | Mixed | Morgan Stanley Equal-Weight, $225 → $195; RBC Outperform, $235 maintained |
| 27 Oct 2026 (print) | INDmoney, TradingKey, JPMorgan (cited) | Bearish | 737 ramp delay and 2027 FCF ~$3B vs ~$5.5B; Commercial margin ~2.8 pts below forecast |
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Morgan Stanley, RBC, Bernstein, TD Cowen | Mixed | Pre-emptive cuts: $250 → $225, $265 → $235, $298 → $278, $250 → $240 |
| Aug – Oct 2026 | Barclays, BNP Paribas, Argus | Bullish | Barclays initiated Overweight $300; BNP upgraded to Outperform $300; Argus upgraded to Buy $265 |
| Consensus | 26 analysts | Bullish | "Strong buy" (1.43); mean target $257.27, median $265, range $157–305 (pre-print) |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus (retrieved 28 Oct 2026; the consensus does not yet reflect the 28 Oct cuts); INDmoney and TradingKey earnings coverage (27–28 Oct 2026). Ratings have held while targets fall, which is typical of a timeline reset rather than a change in the investment case.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | David Raymond (officer) | Stock gift | 907 | — | — | Neutral |
| 20 May 2026 | Bradley Tilden (director) | Open-market purchase | 1,370 | $218.50 | $299k | Positive; now 23% under water |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Mortimer Buckley (director) | Open-market purchase | 2,230 | $224.20 | $500k | Positive; now 25% under water |
| 24 Feb 2026 | Uma Amuluru (officer) | Sale | 1,503 | $233.78 | $351k | Small |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Steve Parker (CEO, Defense) and ten officers | Annual awards | ~110,000 | — | — | Routine |
| Jul – Sep 2026 | Various | Form 4 filings (6 Jul, 12–19 Aug, 1 Sep) | — | — | — | Not itemised in the vendor feed |
Source: SEC Form 4 via EDGAR and the Yahoo Finance insider feed. Two directors bought ~$0.8M in the open market in March and May at $218–224; there has been no meaningful insider selling. An 8-K on 21 Aug (item 5.02) reported an officer or director change, and one on 28 Aug (items 1.01 and 2.03) reported a material agreement and a direct financial obligation; neither is analysed here.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~26 Jan 2027 | Boeing (vendor calendar) | Q4 2026 results; first check on the ~$2B 2026 FCF guide | No |
| ~8 Dec 2026 | Boeing (expected) | November orders and deliveries | No |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry after an 11% gap | Yes |
| Mid-Nov 2026 | BLS | October CPI; rates and the cyclical-industrial bid | Yes |
| ~10 Nov 2026 | Boeing (expected) | October orders and deliveries: the first monthly read on 737 output after the ramp delay | Yes |
| Late Oct 2026 | Airbus (expected) | Nine-month results; delivery target and A320 rate read-across (30 Oct last year) | Just before |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC decision | Just before |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Baird, Susquehanna, TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley | Target cuts of $30–70; RBC holds $235 | No, sets the base |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Boeing release | Q3: revenue $24.19B, core loss $0.34; 737 ramp delayed; 2027 FCF ~$3B; stock −10.7% | No, sets the base |
| 20 Oct 2026 | FAA | 737-10 receives amended type certification | No, sets the base |
| Q3 2026 | U.S. Navy | Boeing selected for F/A-XX (not yet in backlog) | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 28 Oct 2026 report date (7 – 27 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed; Boeing normally publishes monthly orders and deliveries on the second Tuesday of the month.
Just before: the FOMC (today) and Airbus's nine-month results, the closest read on narrowbody demand and supply chains. ~10 Nov: Boeing's October deliveries, the only company data point in the window and a direct test of the 737 plan. Mid-November: October CPI. 20 Nov: options expiry. Analyst target resets will run through the first half of the window.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA | $168.18 | $133.2B | $94.91B | 1.40× | +3.9% | Strong buy · $257.27 | Negative |
| GE Aerospace (GE) | $297.66 | $308.8B | $52.58B | 5.87× | +15.9% | Strong buy · $378.43 | Neutral |
| RTX (RTX) | $194.60 | $262.6B | $95.99B | 2.74× | +11.1% | Buy · $229.17 | Positive |
| Airbus (EADSY ADR) | $53.47 | $169.1B | ~$86.4B | 1.96× | +27.7% | Buy · $61.91 | Neutral |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | $622.99 | $143.9B | $79.12B | 1.82× | +11.3% | Buy · $645.48 | Positive |
| Peer median | — | $215.9B | $82.8B | 2.35× | +13.6% | — | — |
Prices are at the 27 Oct 2026 close; BA traded ~$166 early on 28 Oct. BA revenue is TTM to Sep 2026 from company releases. Peer figures are vendor TTM (Yahoo Finance); GE, RTX and Lockheed reported Q3 on 20–22 Oct. Airbus revenue is converted from euros at 1.122 USD/EUR (marked ~), and its growth figure is the vendor's latest reported quarter. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target; BA's consensus predates the 28 Oct cuts. BA market cap uses 791.9M common shares outstanding (derived).
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | $210 | $240 | 28 Oct 2026 | +24.9% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| RBC Capital | $235 | $235 | 28 Oct 2026 | +39.7% | Outperform | ► Maintained |
| Susquehanna | $250 | $285 | 28 Oct 2026 | +48.7% | Positive | ▼ Lowered |
| Baird | $230 | $300 | 28 Oct 2026 | +36.8% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Morgan Stanley | $195 | $225 | 28 Oct 2026 | +15.9% | Equal-Weight | ▼ Lowered |
| Morgan Stanley | $225 | $250 | 19 Oct 2026 | +33.8% | Equal-Weight | ▼ Lowered |
| RBC Capital | $235 | $265 | 15 Oct 2026 | +39.7% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Bernstein | $278 | $298 | 12 Oct 2026 | +65.3% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Barclays | $300 | — | 9 Oct 2026 | +78.4% | Overweight (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| Jefferies | $265 | $295 | 21 Sep 2026 | +57.6% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $168.18 close on 27 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Every target change on an existing rating since late September has been a cut, except RBC's hold today. Post-print cuts average $41 on the four firms that moved, and the new targets ($195–250) sit well below the pre-print median of $265.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $168.18 |
| Consensus target | $257.27 |
| Median target | $265.00 |
| High target | $305.00 |
| Low target | $157.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +53.0% |
| Implied downside to low | −6.6% |
| Analysts contributing | 26 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 28 Oct 2026, not yet updated for the post-print cuts. The four new targets so far average $221, 17% below the old median.
| $157 |
| $257 |
| $265 |
| $305 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $22,749M | +16.7% | +34.9% | −$0.92 | 10.7% | $517M | −1.2% | Beat | −4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $23,270M | +2.3% | +30.4% | −$7.14 | −10.2% | −$4,027M | −20.5% | Miss | −4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $23,948M | +2.9% | +57.1% | $9.92 (core) | 7.6% | −$78M | −3.4% | n/m | −1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $22,217M | −7.2% | +14.0% | −$0.11 | 11.5% | $1,213M | 2.0% | Beat | +5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $24,560M | +10.5% | +8.0% | −$0.67 | 9.8% | ~$750M | 0.6% | Miss | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $24,188M | −1.5% | +3.9% | −$0.26 | 9.0% | ~$945M | 1.5% | Miss | −10.7% |
EPS is GAAP diluted (Q4 2025 shown as core EPS, which includes the Digital Aviation Solutions sale gain; Q1 2026 derived from the nine-month total). Margin is the GAAP operating margin; gross margin is revenue less cost of products and services. Adjusted EBITDA is the vendor's normalised EBITDA; Q2 and Q3 2026 are derived as operating earnings plus an even split of 9M depreciation (~). vs Est. refers to core EPS against the vendor consensus. Prior-year comparisons include the 2024 IAM strike quarters, which inflate 2025 YoY growth.
Revenue has run at $22–25B a quarter for six quarters. Operating margin recovered from −20.5% (the 777X charge) to around zero, but has not moved meaningfully above 2% since; the Q3 2026 Commercial loss kept it at 1.5%.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.5–3.0 target · below; falling as advances outpace receivables |
| Quick ratio | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.42 | ≥1.0 · below; $90.9B of the current assets is inventory |
| Cash ratio | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.27 | Cash and investments $20.7B, down from $29.4B after $8.4B of debt repayment |
Derived from reported balance sheets. Customer advances of $67.5B (+$8.1B YTD) fund the $90.9B inventory; $10.0B of credit facilities are undrawn.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BA (Sep 26) | 1.13 | −$25.2B | Adequate; $10B undrawn lines |
| Lockheed Martin | 1.26 | −$14.5B | Strong |
| Airbus | 1.15 | ~−$1.3B | Strong |
| RTX | 1.05 | −$29.7B | Adequate |
| GE Aerospace | 0.98 | −$10.8B | Adequate |
| Peer median | 1.10 | −$12.7B | — |
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 7.0× | 9.9× | n/m | Lower is safer · high; equity was negative at Dec 2024 |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.35 | <0.5 conservative · passed; improving with repayments |
| Interest coverage | 0.62× (Q3) | −1.95× (FY25) | −3.97× (FY24) | >2.5 healthy · failed; operating profit below interest |
| Debt service coverage | ~0.40 (TTM) | n/m | n/m | >1.25 healthy · failed; $4.6B of debt is current |
Debt $45.9B (Sep 26: $4.6B current, $41.4B long-term), $54.1B (Dec 25), $54.2B (Dec 24, vendor). Coverage is GAAP operating earnings over interest and debt expense (Q3 $354M / $573M). DSCR is TTM adjusted EBITDA (~$2.8B) over TTM interest ($2.4B) plus current debt ($4.6B).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 9.0% | 9.4% | −10.2% | 4.8% | −3.0% | ▲ |
| Operating margin | 1.5% | 0.2% | −20.5% | −6.1% | −16.3% | ▲ |
| Net margin | −0.5% | 8.1% | −22.9% | 2.5% | −17.8% | → (gain-distorted) |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~3.9% | ~3.0% | −17.3% | −2.6% | −11.7% | ▲ |
| Return on assets | −0.07% (q) | 4.5% | −3.4% (q) | 1.4% | −8.1% | → (gain-distorted) |
| Return on equity | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 8.1% × 0.56 × 28.3 | — | n/m | — | Leverage-driven; not meaningful |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios derived from reported figures. TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026, and its net income ($7.7B) is dominated by the Q4 2025 sale gain; excluding it, TTM net income is negative. ROE is not meaningful on $5–7B of book equity (negative until 2025).
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE Aerospace | 30.1% | 18.5% | 17.3% | 22.1% | 50.2% | 1 of 5 |
| RTX | 21.1% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 17.7% | 12.9% | 2 of 5 |
| Lockheed Martin | 11.7% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 80.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Airbus | 16.3% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 23.2% | 4 of 5 |
| BA (TTM) | 9.4% | 0.2% | 8.1%* | ~3.0% | n/m | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 18.7% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 36.7% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM (Yahoo Finance); vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures, and peer EBITDA margins are reported EBITDA. Rank is by operating margin; Lockheed ranks above Airbus on the unrounded figure. *BA net margin includes the 2025 sale gain.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.56 | 0.55 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets ($169.5B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$521k | ~$492k (FY25) | On ~182,000 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | n/m | — | Core loss $0.34 against $7.47 |
| Commercial deliveries (9M) | 475 (+8%) | 440 | 737 367, 787 62, 777 20, 767 26 |
| Backlog | $745.4B (+9% YTD) | $682.2B (Dec 25) | Commercial $612B, Defense $101B, Services $33B |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | — | Common dividend suspended since 2020 |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airbus | 0.41 | ~$512k | 168,754 | +126% | 1.75% | 1 of 5 |
| GE Aerospace | 0.29 | $922k | 57,000 | +9% | 0.63% | 2 of 5 |
| Lockheed Martin | 1.04 | $643k | 123,000 | +15% | 2.31% | 3 of 5 |
| RTX | 0.52 | $533k | 180,000 | +34% | 1.50% | 4 of 5 |
| BA | 0.56 | $521k | ~182,000 | n/m | 0.00% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.47 | $588k | 145,877 | +25% | 1.63% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is derived as vendor ROA over vendor net margin. Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure. Airbus revenue per employee is converted at 1.122 USD/EUR (~).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial deliveries | 161 | 160 | +1% | 171 in Q2 2026; 143 in Q1 |
| 737 deliveries | 124 | 121 | +2% | ~41 a month against a 47 production rate |
| 787 deliveries | 22 | 24 | −8% | Production stable at 8 a month |
| 777 deliveries | 5 | 9 | −44% | Mix drag on Commercial revenue |
| Commercial operating margin | −6.5% | −48.3% | +41.8 pts | Year-ago included the 777X charge |
| Defense operating margin | 6.2% | 1.7% | +4.5 pts | Includes a $252M HRL Laboratories gain |
| Services operating margin | 18.3% | 17.5% | +0.8 pts | Revenue $5.57B (+4%) |
| Free cash flow | $464M | $238M | +95% | After ~$0.7B of DOJ payments; 9M −$359M |
From the Q3 2026 release (27 Oct 2026, SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1). Q1 and Q2 2026 deliveries from Zacks (Q2: 171) and derived from the nine-month total (Q1: 143). Net commercial orders were 300 in the quarter.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | n/m (17.4×) | TTM EPS $9.69 includes the 2025 sale gain; negative excluding it |
| P/E forward (vendor) | 51.2× | Forward EPS $3.29; peer median 23.5× |
| Price / book | 20.3× | Equity $6.5B |
| Price / sales TTM | 1.40× | Peer median 2.35× |
| EV / sales TTM | 1.67× | EV $158.4B |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~56× | On ~$2.8B adjusted EBITDA; vendor 67× |
| FCF yield (guided) | 2.3% / 4.5% / 7.5% | 2027 $3B / 2028 $6B / 2029 $10B on today's market cap |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE Aerospace | $297.66 | $308.8B | $52.58B | 5.87× | +150% |
| RTX | $194.60 | $262.6B | $95.99B | 2.74× | +17% |
| Airbus | $53.47 | $169.1B | ~$86.4B | 1.96× | −17% |
| Lockheed Martin | $622.99 | $143.9B | $79.12B | 1.82× | −23% |
| BA | $168.18 | $133.2B | $94.91B | 1.40× | −40% |
| Peer median | — | $215.9B | $82.8B | 2.35× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA | $9.69* | n/m | +3.9% | n/m | Valued on 2027–29 cash flow, which was just pushed out |
| Airbus | €2.19 | 24.4× | +27.7% | 0.19 | Duopoly peer; earnings recovering faster |
| GE Aerospace | $8.75 | 34.0× | +15.9% | 3.8 | Premium for aftermarket engines |
| RTX | $6.15 | 31.6× | +11.1% | 0.93 | Defense and engines; beat 12 of 12 |
| Lockheed Martin | $28.16 | 22.1× | +11.3% | 1.50 | Defense pure play; +29% YTD |
| Peer median | — | 28.0× | +13.6% | 1.22 | — |
PEG is P/E over the vendor's quarterly EPS growth. Airbus EPS and P/E are the vendor's ADR-basis figures. *BA TTM EPS includes the 2025 sale gain.
Boeing looks cheap only on sales: 1.40× against 2.35× for peers. On earnings and cash it is expensive, because margins are near zero and the cash that would justify the valuation now arrives a year later. The valuation case is a 2028–29 case, and this window cannot test it.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 4 Sep 2025 – 27 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots 145 points, every second session. As of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 28 Oct 2026 report date. The Volatility reading has not yet absorbed the 10.7% fall on 27 Oct and is likely to rise.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.0706 | 0.1319 | 0.0664 | −0.0886 | 0.2267 | 2.4 | Mean-reverting; negative since 8 Oct, the first negative run in the window |
| Volatility | −0.4481 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 5.2 | Very subdued; lagging the 27 Oct shock |
Currently in Q3 Quiet Range, held 9 consecutive sessions (15–27 Oct) after a brief Volatile Chop spell (9–13 Oct). Not borderline: Persistency is 0.07 below the axis. As of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 48.8% | Dec 2025 – Feb 2026, Mar–May and Aug–Sep 2026 |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 1.4% | 9–13 Oct 2026 only |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 3.1% | Since 15 Oct 2026, the only visit |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 46.7% | Alternating with Volatile Trend all year; Jun–Aug 2026 the longest run |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 7 | The 2025–26 pattern: volatility rises within a trend |
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 6 | And subsides again |
| Volatile trend → Volatile chop | 1 | Oct 2026: Persistency turns negative |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 1 | 15 Oct 2026 |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Volatile Trend had a median of +0.8% (52% positive, 137 observations) and from Quiet Drift −4.0% (32%, 131). The current Quiet Range and the earlier Volatile Chop have no completed 21-day windows (thin samples, no conclusion drawn). Unconditionally the median was −1.9% (42% positive). As of 27 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. For a year Boeing's Persistency was firmly positive and the stock moved between two trend states. October broke that pattern: Persistency went negative and the stock entered states it had not visited in the window, with no history to condition on. These statistics describe 4 Sep 2025 – 27 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.022 | 0.0 | −0.086 | −0.455 | 0.363 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.025 | 0.1 | −0.134 | −0.402 | 0.415 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.007 | 0.0 | 0.323 | −0.429 | 0.323 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.013 | 0.0 | −0.384 | −0.384 | 0.297 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | 0.028 | 0.1 | −0.113 | −0.239 | 0.421 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.431 | 18.6 | −0.141 | −0.774 | 0.112 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.027 | 0.1 | 0.053 | −0.533 | 0.385 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.048 | 0.2 | 0.190 | −0.472 | 0.337 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of BA against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 29 Oct 2021 – 27 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1 is the only driver with material explanatory power (R² 18.6%); its rolling reading has ranged from −0.77 to +0.11 and is −0.14 now. Market Driver 1 is near zero over the full window. Drivers as of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | −0.00003 | −0.024 | 0.3% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.27741 | −0.432 | 99.7% |
Boeing is an idiosyncratic name with a modest sector link. For the next 10–30 days index hedges will offset little of the risk; the company's own delivery data and the analyst reset will decide the month.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against BA daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 has been negative for most of the period; Market Driver 1 has swung around zero. On the latest plotted reading (23 Oct) Market Driver 1 is +0.21 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.33. As of 27 Oct 2026.
BA daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 26 Oct 2026, 1,183 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 70), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 420 | 35.5% | +68.2% | +36.6% | 44.8% | 0.82 | 53.3% | +14.30% | −11.06% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 172 | 14.5% | +15.5% | +23.5% | 33.7% | 0.70 | 52.3% | +5.87% | −8.37% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 283 | 23.9% | −9.0% | −8.1% | 31.0% | −0.26 | 49.5% | +8.36% | −9.18% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 308 | 26.0% | −49.7% | −43.0% | 29.3% | −1.47 | 46.1% | +7.72% | −8.22% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 413 | 34.9% | +100.0% | +52.6% | 44.3% | 1.19 | 53.5% | +14.30% | −11.06% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 179 | 15.1% | +12.1% | +17.4% | 31.4% | 0.55 | 52.5% | +5.87% | −7.85% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 350 | 29.6% | −15.2% | −11.2% | 31.3% | −0.36 | 49.4% | +8.36% | −9.18% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 241 | 20.4% | −53.2% | −54.8% | 31.6% | −1.74 | 44.8% | +7.72% | −8.37% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 449 | 38.0% | +88.3% | +42.6% | 42.3% | 1.01 | 51.4% | +14.30% | −11.06% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.1% | +2.8% | +5.0% | 34.9% | 0.14 | 58.0% | +5.87% | −8.37% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 336 | 28.4% | −37.6% | −29.8% | 33.9% | −0.88 | 48.2% | +7.72% | −11.06% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 255 | 21.6% | −26.5% | −26.2% | 28.7% | −0.91 | 47.1% | +5.15% | −8.22% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded BA return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for BA | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −49.7% | −1.47 | 2.29 | 37 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −53.2% | −1.74 | 2.93 | 37 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −26.5% | −0.91 | 1.92 | 31 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −13.8% | −0.25 | 3.04 | 110 |
| Financials | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −33.7% | −0.87 | 2.46 | 1 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +15.4% | 0.30 | 5.29 | 86 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −2.2% | −0.04 | 1.28 | 1 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | −32.9% | −0.69 | 1.81 | 1 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −18.9% | −0.30 | 0.97 | 58 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −35.6% | −1.44 | 2.05 | 40 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −55.3% | −1.49 | 2.88 | 121 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +30.4% | 1.52 | 2.42 | 9 |
| Bonds mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | +0.2% | 0.01 | 0.87 | 1 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +70.4% | 1.12 | 2.24 | 20 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning BA is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 26 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days; where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations, and BA's history in this period includes the 2024 door-plug crisis and strike. Market regime series as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 26 | Baird, Susquehanna, TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley cut targets after Q3; RBC holds $235 (Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
| 28 Oct 26 | "Boeing breaks $183.86 after 737 ramp delay as sellers eye $160.35" (TradingKey) | Negative |
| 27 Oct 26 | Boeing reports Q3: revenue $24.2B, core loss $0.34, record $745B backlog (company release) | Mixed |
| 27 Oct 26 | 737 stays at 47 a month into 2027; 52 a month moves to H2 2027; ~500 737 deliveries in 2026 will be missed (INDmoney) | Negative |
| 27 Oct 26 | 2027 FCF guided to ~$3B against ~$5.5B expected; $10B target moved to 2029 (INDmoney, TradingKey) | Negative |
| 27 Oct 26 | Shares fall 10.7% to a 52-week low (market data) | Negative |
| 24 Oct 26 | Preview: FAA win sets the stage; stock down 15% from $221.56 despite good news (24/7 Wall St.) | Mixed |
| 20 Oct 26 | FAA certifies the 737-10 (24/7 Wall St., company release) | Positive |
| 19 Oct 26 | Morgan Stanley trims its target to $225 from $250 (Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
| 9 Oct 26 | Barclays initiates at Overweight with a $300 target (Yahoo Finance) | Positive |
| Q3 26 | Navy selects Boeing for the F/A-XX fighter; PAC-3 seeker production contract (company release) | Positive |
| 28 Jul 26 | Q2: revenue beat, core loss $0.76 against $0.34 expected (Zacks); stock +4.8% | Mixed |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1), INDmoney, TradingKey, 24/7 Wall St., Zacks, Yahoo Finance rating log; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "certification wins and a recovery in 2027" (early October) to "the recovery is a year late" (this week).
| Field | The Boeing Company | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | The Boeing Company | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: BA · founded 1916; Dow Jones component | Airbus listed in Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid |
| Domicile | United States (Delaware; headquarters Arlington, Virginia) | Airbus Netherlands / France |
| Sector / industry | Industrials · Aerospace and defense | Airbus the only commercial-jet peer |
| Market cap | $133.2B (791.9M shares × $168.18) | Smallest of the five |
| Employees | ~182,000 (vendor) | RTX ~180,000; Airbus ~169,000 |
| TTM revenue | $94.91B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Second of five, behind RTX |
| Revenue model | Three segments: Commercial Airplanes (44% of Q3 revenue), Defense, Space & Security (33%) and Global Services (23%) | GE and RTX lean on engine aftermarket |
| Key differentiators | One of two large commercial-jet makers; $745B backlog including over 6,300 aircraft; 737, 787 and 777X families; F/A-XX, KC-46, Apache and Chinook in defense; Spirit AeroSystems now in-house | Duopoly with Airbus in large jets |
| CIK | 0000012927 | — |
| Website | boeing.com | — |
Boeing's third quarter was close to expectations on revenue and better than feared on cash, but it moved the timeline. The 737 holds at 47 a month into 2027, 52 a month slips to the second half of 2027, the ~500 737 delivery target for 2026 will be missed, and 2027 free cash flow is now ~$3B against ~$5.5B expected. Commercial Airplanes still lost $697M. The stock fell 10.7% to a 52-week low, analysts have started cutting targets, and the broad market is in the regime that has historically been BA's worst. The stock is oversold and its own regime is mean-reverting, so a sharp bounce is possible, but the evidence favours lower highs over the window. The view turns neutral if October deliveries (~10 Nov) show 737 output near 47 a month and BA closes back above $188.31, its pre-print close. A break below ~$160 would confirm the bearish view, with the ~$150 area next.