Close 29 Oct 2026
$105.51
Fiscal Q4 2026 global comparable sales rose 7.2% against ~6% expected. US comps rose 7.7%, with transactions up 2.4% after a 0.9% fall a year earlier, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 beat $0.71. Revenue of $9.14B (−4%, after China moved to a joint venture) missed ~$9.2B, and International comps rose only 0.9%. FY2027 guidance of $3.15–3.25 non-GAAP EPS sits just above the ~$3.14 consensus, with ~$1B of buybacks. The stock had already risen 12% in 30 days to $105.51, 2.8% below its high, and slipped ~2% after hours. Over the next 10–30 days the holiday launch, Red Cup Day (17 Nov) and post-print estimate changes decide whether it breaks out or gives back the run-up.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $105.51 on 29 Oct, up 12.3% over 30 days from $93.96 on 30 Sep and +25.3% YTD. The low of the month was $90.75 on 9 Oct, after a report that Starbucks was preparing a bid for Chipotle; it has risen 16.3% since. It is 2.8% below the $108.55 high of 13 Aug. After the release it traded ~$103.57 after hours (−1.8%; low ~$102.00) against an options-implied move of ±6.3%. | Bullish |
| Revenue growth | Revenue $9.14B, −4.5% YoY, against ~$9.2B expected; the decline is the China retail business moving to a licensed joint venture. North America +6.2% to $7.33B; International −37% to $1.31B; Channel Development −9%. FY2026 +2.0% to $37.91B. FY2027 is guided at about −1%, including ~$700M from a 53rd week. | Mixed |
| Profitability | GAAP operating margin 10.8% (+790 bps); non-GAAP 14.0% (+450 bps at constant currency). North America margin 12.3% (4.5% a year ago). GAAP EPS $0.59 (+392%), non-GAAP $0.80 (+54%). FY2027 non-GAAP margin guided to 13.5–14.0%, from 11.9% in FY2026. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 47.7× TTM GAAP EPS ($2.21) and 33.0× the FY2027 guidance midpoint ($3.20), against a 20.5× peer median for McDonald's, Chipotle, Yum! and Restaurant Brands. EV/EBITDA 24.5× (peers ~16–18×). P/S 3.17× is below the 4.16× peer median, because Starbucks runs its own stores. Consensus target $110.53, 4.8% above the close. | Bearish |
| Platform KPIs | US comps +7.7%: transactions +2.4%, ticket +5.2% (about half from pricing and delivery, half from food attach and mix). North America comps +7.9%. International +0.9%, with transactions −2.8%. More than 80% of North America company-operated stores posted positive comps (under 50% a year earlier). 41,607 coffeehouses after ~250 North America closures in September. | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Cash and short-term investments $3.86B; debt $13.28B (net debt $9.41B, or $18.55B with operating leases). Debt repaid in FY2026: $2.82B, funded by $2.54B of China proceeds. Shareholders' deficit $7.67B. Interest coverage 6.9×. Current ratio 0.76. FY2026 free cash flow $3.72B against $2.82B of dividends. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend, entered on 29 Oct: Persistency +0.004 (94.1st percentile; it has risen from −0.31 a year ago), Volatility +0.313 (81.3rd percentile). On the boundary: Persistency is within 0.05 of the axis, so the call is provisional. As of 29 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag); it predates the after-hours move. | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 87.2% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 −0.358 (R² 12.8%); Market Driver 1 ~0. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.24 (beta 0.53); with Restaurant Brands 0.37, Chipotle 0.35, McDonald's 0.34, the consumer discretionary sector 0.34, Yum! 0.32. Company news decides the month. As of 29 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | A run-up that has priced the print. The stock rose 12% into results that only modestly beat on EPS guidance; October brought six target cuts, and the consensus target is close to the price. After its April beat the stock rose 8.5% on the day and then fell 6.0% over 21 sessions. Union action around Red Cup Day (as in November 2025) and weak International transactions are secondary risks. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Holiday menu launch (5 Nov, just before), Bearista cup collection (10 Nov), dividend record date (13 Nov, $0.63), Red Cup Day (17 Nov), options expiry (20 Nov), Thanksgiving week (26 Nov) and the dividend payment (27 Nov). McDonald's (4 Nov) and Yum! (3 Nov) report just before the window. The next Starbucks report (~27 Jan 2027) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. The turnaround is now in the numbers: US transactions grew again, North America margin nearly tripled, and FY2027 guidance implies 16–19% EPS growth with buybacks resuming. But the stock ran 12% into the print and trades at 33× guided earnings, almost 1.6× the peer median, so the good news looks largely priced. The muted after-hours move suggests a range near the old high rather than a breakout or a collapse. Composite 6.0 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (9 – 29 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came after the close on 29 Oct; the after-hours price (~$103.57 at 19:58 ET) is an indication, not a session close. Consensus: BigGo Finance (revenue ~$9.2B, EPS $0.71, global comps ~6%, International ~3%, FY2027 EPS $3.14) and 24/7 Wall St. ($9.24B, $0.71). Options-implied move from TipRanks.
Starbucks delivered the evidence its turnaround needed, with transaction-led comps in the US and a margin step-up. The problem for the next month is not the business but the price: the stock has already climbed to within 3% of its high on that expectation.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.25). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.63 + 1.00 + 0.99 + 0.78 + 0.63 + 0.55 + 0.40 = 6.0 (5.97). The composite sits at the bottom of the Mixed range: the low scores are valuation and margin level, which explain how much room the price has, not what happens in the month. The verdict stays Mixed, not Bearish, because the evidence inside the window, transaction-led comps and guidance above consensus, has improved, and the market's after-hours reaction was small.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-print profit-taking | Market | 12% run-up into a modest beat; targets near the price | Yes |
| Holiday launch and Red Cup Day | Operational | Traffic and throughput in the peak weeks; strike risk | Yes |
| Estimate revisions | Market | Revenue and International misses offset the EPS guide | Possible |
| Peer results | Competitive | Yum! and McDonald's US traffic read-across | Possible |
| M&A speculation | Corporate | Renewed Chipotle or other deal talk | Possible |
| China joint venture | Structural | Growth only via a 40% equity stake | Structural |
| Labor and union contract | Structural | Higher cost base; bargaining unresolved | Structural |
| Leverage and payout | Financial | Equity deficit; dividend above GAAP EPS | Structural |
Inside the window the risk is mostly about price, not the business: a stock that rose into the print can fall on good news. The operational risk to watch is the holiday peak, where traffic and any strike will show within days.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | 29 Oct 2026 | $9,141M | −1.1% | $0.59 ($0.80) | +13.4% | ~−1.8% (after hours) |
| Q3 FY2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | $9,323M | n/c | $0.91 ($0.85) | +30.8% | +1.6% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | $9,532M | n/c | $0.45 ($0.50) | +14.5% | +8.5% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 28 Jan 2026 | $9,915M | n/c | $0.26 ($0.56) | −4.6% | −0.6% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 29 Oct 2025 | $9,569M | n/c | $0.12 ($0.52) | −6.5% | −1.2% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 29 Jul 2025 | $9,456M | n/c | $0.49 ($0.50) | −22.5% | −0.2% |
EPS is GAAP diluted, with non-GAAP in brackets; the surprise is on non-GAAP EPS against the vendor's (Yahoo) estimate. Q1 FY2026 was released before the open, so its reaction is the same session; the others came after the close and show the next session. GAAP EPS for Q1–Q3 FY2026 and Q3 FY2025 is derived from SEC XBRL net income and diluted shares; Q3 FY2026 includes the $536M pre-tax gain on the China divestiture. Revenue consensus for Q4 per 24/7 Wall St. ($9.24B); earlier quarters not compiled (n/c). 21-session moves after each reaction close, oldest to newest: −5.1%, +2.1%, +3.0%, −6.0%, +1.9%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 0/1 sourced | 75% (3/4); 50% (4/8) | Annual EPS, margin, comps, openings |
| McDonald's | n/c | n/c | Annual margin, capex, openings |
| Chipotle | n/c | n/c | Annual comps and openings |
| Yum! Brands | n/c | n/c | Long-term algorithm |
| Restaurant Brands | n/c | n/c | Long-term algorithm |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Peer beat histories were not compiled: the vendor's quote service returned errors during this session. Starbucks' EPS record turned with the turnaround: four misses in the five quarters to Q1 FY2026, then three beats.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| FY2027 revenue | ~−1% YoY | Includes ~$700M from the 53rd week; China deconsolidated |
| FY2027 North America comps | ~+4.0% | Pricing below CPI; more balanced by quarter |
| FY2027 non-GAAP op. margin | 13.5–14.0% | From 11.9%; ~40–45% of the gain in 1H (approx.) |
| FY2027 non-GAAP EPS | $3.15–3.25 | +16–19%; midpoint ~2% above $3.14 consensus |
| Net new coffeehouses | ~1,200 | Led by International; ~half in China |
| Capital return | ~$1B buybacks | Plus $0.63 quarterly dividend |
| Next quarterly report | ~27 Jan 2027 | Tentative; outside the window |
Starbucks has gone from missing to beating, and the FY2027 guide is slightly above the Street. But there is no Starbucks report inside the window, so the evidence the market gets in November will come from the holiday launch and from peers.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | Citi | Mixed | Neutral; target $104 → $107. Margin expansion now drives the story, but the valuation needs earnings support |
| 29 Oct 2026 (print) | BigGo Finance, 24/7 Wall St., Investing.com | Mixed | Comps and EPS beat; revenue and International comps miss; FY2027 EPS guide slightly above consensus |
| 20–26 Oct 2026 | BofA, Mizuho, Wells Fargo, Citi | Bearish | Four pre-print target cuts: BofA $143 → $136 (Buy), Mizuho $115 → $105, Wells Fargo $125 → $120, Citi $112 → $104 |
| 8–15 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley, Raymond James, William Blair, BTIG, DA Davidson, UBS | Neutral | Ratings reiterated after the Chipotle report; UBS Neutral, $112 → $105; Morgan Stanley Overweight, $115 |
| 29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026 | JPMorgan, Baird, Redburn | Bearish | JPMorgan Overweight, $112 → $105; Baird Outperform, $124 → $115; Redburn Sell, $81 → $82 |
| Consensus | 35–39 analysts | Mixed | MarketBeat "Hold" (23 Buy, 12 Hold, 4 Sell), mean $110.53; Stockanalysis.com "Buy", mean $110.17, median $110 |
Sources: MarketBeat (29 Oct 2026), Stockanalysis.com (26 Oct 2026), Futu News (Citi, 30 Oct), BigGo Finance, 24/7 Wall St. Rating labels follow each source. Further post-print changes had not been published at the time of writing (before the 30 Oct open).
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | Brady Brewer, CEO International | Sale (10b5-1) | 588 | $100.00 | $0.06M | Scheduled; plan adopted 3 Dec 2025 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Brady Brewer, CEO International | Sale (10b5-1) | 1,641 | $94.76 | $0.16M | Scheduled |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Sara Kelly, EVP chief partner officer | Shares withheld for tax | 1,454 | $96.58 | $0.14M | Not a discretionary sale |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Brian Niccol, chairman and CEO | Shares withheld for tax | 56,267 | $100.04 | $5.63M | Vesting; holds 428,697 directly |
| May – Oct 2026 | Brady Brewer, CEO International | Sales (10b5-1), total | 13,374 | ~$102.06 | $1.37M | Monthly programme; ~16% of holding |
| FY2026 | Company | Buyback | — | — | $0 | ~$1B planned for FY2027 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR (May – Oct 2026; 11 filings parsed) and the matching Form 144 notices. There were no open-market purchases and no discretionary sales by the CEO or CFO. The only sales were small, pre-scheduled ones by the head of International. Insider ownership is ~0.1% (Stockanalysis.com). Insider activity carries little signal for the window.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~27 Jan 2027 | Starbucks (tentative) | Q1 FY2027 results: the first quarter against the new guidance | No |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Starbucks release | $0.63 quarterly dividend paid | Yes |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry, three weeks after the print | Yes |
| 17 Nov 2026 | Starbucks (via Scripps News) | Red Cup Day: free reusable cup with a holiday drink; one of the busiest days of the year, and a 2025 strike date | Yes |
| 13 Nov 2026 | Starbucks release | Dividend record date ($0.63) | Yes |
| 10 Nov 2026 | Starbucks (via Scripps News) | Glass Bearista cup collection launches | Yes |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Starbucks (via Scripps News) | Holiday menu launch: Peppermint Mocha, Caramel Brulée, Sugar Cookie, Gingerbread Chai | Just before |
| 3–4 Nov 2026 | Yum! Brands, McDonald's | Q3 results; US restaurant traffic read-across | Just before |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Starbucks release | Q4 FY2026: comps +7.2%, non-GAAP EPS $0.80, revenue $9.14B; FY2027 EPS guide $3.15–3.25; ~−1.8% after hours | No, sets the base |
| 12 Oct 2026 | CNBC, Bloomberg | Starbucks says it will not acquire Chipotle | No, sets the base |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Financial Times | Report that Starbucks had worked with advisers on a possible Chipotle bid; SBUX −2.6% the next session | No, sets the base |
| 22 Sep 2026 | SEC 8-K | ~1% of North America stores (~250) to close; ~$300M of charges; FY2026 openings cut to ~440 | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 30 Oct 2026 report date (9 – 29 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. The January report date was given as tentative on the earnings call.
Just before: the 30 Oct session, post-print estimate changes, Yum! and McDonald's results, and the 5 Nov holiday launch. 10–17 Nov: the Bearista launch, the dividend record date and Red Cup Day, the first public test of holiday traffic and of labor relations. 20 Nov: options expiry. 26–27 Nov: Thanksgiving week and the dividend payment. Starbucks has no scheduled report before late January.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | $105.51 | $120.3B | $37.91B | 3.17× | −4.5% | Hold · $110.53 | Mixed |
| McDonald's (MCD) | $257.38 | ~$181.6B | $27.70B | 6.56× | +3.7% | n/c | Neutral |
| Yum! Brands (YUM) | $154.55 | ~$42.2B | $8.72B | 4.84× | +12.2% | n/c | Neutral |
| Chipotle (CMG) | $31.28 | ~$39.6B | $12.42B | 3.19× | +9.7% | n/c | Positive |
| Restaurant Brands (QSR) | $73.01 | ~$33.8B | $9.70B | 3.48× | +3.1% | n/c | Negative |
| Peer median | — | ~$40.9B | $11.06B | 4.16× | +6.7% | — | — |
Prices are at the 29 Oct 2026 close; SBUX traded ~$103.57 after hours. SBUX revenue is FY2026 (to 27 Sep 2026) from the release; market cap uses 1,140.1M shares. Peer market caps (~) are Stockanalysis.com values (26–27 Oct) scaled to the 29 Oct close; peer TTM revenue is from Stockanalysis.com. Latest-quarter growth is from SEC XBRL revenue: Chipotle and Restaurant Brands to Sep 2026, McDonald's and Yum! to Jun 2026 (their Q3 reports fall on 3–4 Nov). News sentiment for Chipotle and Restaurant Brands reflects their 29 Oct reactions to Q3 results (+8.9% and −2.0%). Peer consensus views were not available (n/c) because the vendor's quote service was down; SBUX consensus is from MarketBeat.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citi (Jon Tower) | $107 | $104 | 30 Oct 2026 | +1.4% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| BofA Securities (Sara Senatore) | $136 | $143 | 26 Oct 2026 | +28.9% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| Mizuho (Nick Setyan) | $105 | $115 | 23 Oct 2026 | −0.5% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Wells Fargo (Zachary Fadem) | $120 | $125 | 21 Oct 2026 | +13.7% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
| Morgan Stanley (Brian Harbour) | $115 | — | 15 Oct 2026 | +9.0% | Overweight | ► Maintained |
| DA Davidson (Matt Curtis) | $110 | $110 | 9 Oct 2026 | +4.3% | Neutral | ► Maintained |
| UBS (Dennis Geiger) | $105 | $112 | 8 Oct 2026 | −0.5% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Baird (David Tarantino) | $115 | $124 | 2 Oct 2026 | +9.0% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Rothschild & Co Redburn | $82 | $81 | 30 Sep 2026 | −22.3% | Sell | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan (John Ivankoe) | $105 | $112 | 29 Sep 2026 | −0.5% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $105.51 close on 29 Oct 2026. Sources: MarketBeat (29 Oct 2026), Stockanalysis.com (26 Oct 2026) and Futu News for Citi's post-print change. Six of the ten moves since late September were cuts; four targets sit at or below the close.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $105.51 |
| Consensus target | $110.53 |
| Median target | $110.00 |
| High target | $143.00 |
| Low target | $82.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +4.8% |
| Implied downside to low | −22.3% |
| Analysts contributing | 39 |
Consensus from MarketBeat (39 ratings); median, high and low from Stockanalysis.com (35 analysts, mean $110.17). The $143 high may predate BofA's 26 Oct cut from $143 to $136.
| $82 |
| $111 |
| $110 |
| $143 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2025 | $9,456M | +7.9% | +3.8% | $0.49 | 22.8% | $1,384M | 9.9% | Miss | −0.2% |
| Q4 FY2025 | $9,569M | +1.2% | +5.5% | $0.12 | 22.6% | $734M | 2.9% | Miss | −1.2% |
| Q1 FY2026 | $9,915M | +3.6% | +5.5% | $0.26 | 21.1% | $1,323M | 9.0% | Miss | −0.6% |
| Q2 FY2026 | $9,532M | −3.9% | +8.8% | $0.45 | 20.1% | $1,217M | 8.7% | Beat | +8.5% |
| Q3 FY2026 | $9,323M | −2.2% | −1.4% | $0.91 | 24.6% | $1,370M | 10.5% | Beat | +1.6% |
| Q4 FY2026 | $9,141M | −1.9% | −4.5% | $0.59 | 23.9% | $1,376M | 10.8% | Beat | ~−1.8% (after hours) |
Starbucks does not report adjusted EBITDA; the column is GAAP operating income plus total depreciation and amortization from the cash flow statement (derived). Margin is the GAAP operating margin. Gross margin is revenue less product and distribution costs and coffeehouse operating expenses (store-level, derived; the vendor's definition). "vs Est." is non-GAAP EPS against the vendor estimate. Revenue falls from Q3 FY2026 because China retail was deconsolidated on its sale to a joint venture. Q1 FY2026 was reported before the open, so its reaction is the same session.
Reported revenue has drifted down since Q1 FY2026 as China moved off the books, while the GAAP operating margin recovered from 2.9% (a quarter heavy with restructuring) to 10.8%. Non-GAAP operating margin in Q4 was 14.0%.
| Metric | 27 Sep 2026 | 28 Sep 2025 | 29 Sep 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 1.5–3.0 target · below; normal for a cash-pay retailer with stored-value liabilities |
| Quick ratio | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.52 | ≥1.0 · below; current assets less inventory and prepaid |
| Cash ratio | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.39 | Cash and short-term investments $3.86B |
Derived from the FY2026 release balance sheet and SEC XBRL data for prior years. Current liabilities include $1.76B of stored-value card liability and deferred revenue, which is settled in coffee rather than cash.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX (Sep 26) | 0.76 | −$18.55B | Adequate; strong operating cash flow |
| McDonald's | 1.08 | −$53.78B | Adequate; highly levered by design |
| Restaurant Brands | 1.01 | −$14.55B | Adequate |
| Chipotle | 0.72 | −$4.74B | Adequate; lease liabilities only |
| Yum! Brands | 0.59 | −$12.73B | Adequate; franchise cash flows |
| Peer median | 0.87 | −$13.64B | — |
Net cash includes operating lease liabilities, to match the vendor's peer basis (Stockanalysis.com); excluding leases Starbucks' net debt is $9.41B.
| Metric | 27 Sep 2026 | 28 Sep 2025 | 29 Sep 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | n/m | n/m | n/m | Shareholders' deficit: −$7.67B, −$8.10B, −$7.45B |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.50 | <0.5 conservative · now just inside; debt $13.28B |
| Interest coverage | 6.9× | 5.4× | 9.6× | >2.5 healthy · passed; FY GAAP operating income over interest |
| Debt service coverage | 1.58× | 2.63× | 2.93× | >1.25 healthy · passed; FY2026 includes $2.82B of repayments |
All ratios derived. Debt service coverage is GAAP operating income plus D&A over interest plus long-term debt repaid in the year. The deficit reflects years of buybacks, not losses.
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 | TTM | Q4 FY2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin (store-level) | 23.9% | 22.4% | 22.6% | 22.8% | 26.8% | ▲ (Q4) |
| Operating margin | 10.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 7.9% | 15.0% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 10.4% | ▲ |
| EBITDA margin (derived) | 15.1% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 19.4% | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 2.4% (q) | 8.4% | n/d | 5.9% | 12.4% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | Negative equity |
| DuPont (NPM × AT) | — | 6.7% × 1.26 | — | 5.0% × 1.17 | — | Margin-led recovery |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios derived from reported figures; TTM is FY2026. Non-GAAP operating margin was 14.0% in Q4 and 11.9% for FY2026 (9.9% in FY2025). FY2026 net income includes the China divestiture gain. With negative equity, ROE and the equity multiplier are not meaningful, so DuPont is shown as ROA = net margin × asset turnover.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's | 57.4% | 45.7% | 31.7% | 53.9% | n/m | 1 of 5 |
| Yum! Brands | 45.3% | 32.5% | 25.4% | 35.2% | n/m | 2 of 5 |
| Restaurant Brands | 34.1% | 27.0% | 13.1% | 30.2% | 34.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Chipotle | 39.4% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 18.3% | 49.6% | 4 of 5 |
| SBUX (FY2026) | 22.4% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 13.9% | n/m | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 42.4% | 29.8% | 19.3% | 32.7% | 42.2% | — |
Peer ratios are TTM from Stockanalysis.com (26–27 Oct 2026); peer EBITDA is vendor EBITDA, not company-adjusted. Rank is by operating margin. McDonald's, Yum! and Restaurant Brands are mostly franchised, which lifts their margins; Starbucks and Chipotle run their own stores, so the fair comparison for Starbucks is Chipotle. ROE is not meaningful where equity is negative.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 1.26 | 1.17 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets ($30.2B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$99.5k | — | On ~381,000 employees (vendor; may predate the China sale) |
| EPS growth (FY2026) | +36% GAAP | −51% (FY25) | Non-GAAP +28% to $2.72 |
| Comparable sales (Q4) | +7.2% | — | North America +7.9%, International +0.9% |
| Free cash flow (FY2026) | $3.72B | $2.44B (FY25) | Operating cash flow $4.99B less capex $1.26B |
| Dividend yield | 2.39% | — | $2.52 annualised; 92% of non-GAAP EPS |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yum! Brands | 1.12 | ~$178k | 49,000 | n/c | ~1.9% | 1 of 5 |
| Chipotle | 1.37 | ~$95k | 130,301 | n/c | 0.00% | 2 of 5 |
| McDonald's | 0.46 | ~$185k | 150,000 | n/c | ~3.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Restaurant Brands | 0.38 | ~$181k | 53,500 | n/c | ~3.5% | 4 of 5 |
| SBUX | 1.26 | ~$99.5k | ~381,000 | +36% | 2.39% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.79 | ~$180k | ~91,900 | n/c | ~2.5% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter reported revenue growth; on comparable sales Starbucks (+7.2%) would rank near the top. Peer asset turnover, employees and dividend yields are from Stockanalysis.com, with yields scaled to the 29 Oct close (~); revenue per employee is derived. Peer historical EPS growth was not available (n/c).
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US comparable sales | +7.7% | −0.3% | +8.0 pts | FY2026 +6.5% |
| US comparable transactions | +2.4% | −0.9% | +3.3 pts | Moderated from Q3; two-year stack improved |
| US average ticket | +5.2% | +0.7% | +4.5 pts | Pricing, delivery, food attach and mix |
| International comparable sales | +0.9% | +3.2% | −2.3 pts | Transactions −2.8% (+6.3% a year ago) |
| North America operating margin | 12.3% | 4.5% | +780 bps | Lower restructuring and sales leverage |
| Coffeehouses (global) | 41,607 | 40,990 | +1.5% | 303 net new in Q4 after ~250 NA closures |
| Channel Development revenue | $494M | $543M | −8.9% | Global Coffee Alliance; margin 53.5% |
From the Q4 FY2026 release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1) and the earnings call. Store-positive share and the ticket split are management commentary.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 47.7× | GAAP EPS $2.21; 38.8× on non-GAAP $2.72; peer median 20.5× |
| P/E forward (guidance) | 33.0× | FY2027 midpoint $3.20 (32.5–33.5× across the range) |
| Price / book | n/m | Shareholders' deficit −$7.67B |
| Price / sales TTM | 3.17× | Peer median 4.16× |
| EV / EBITDA | 24.5× | EV $129.7B (ex leases) over $5.29B; 21.2× on non-GAAP operating income plus D&A |
| FCF yield (FY2026) | 3.1% | $3.72B over market cap (derived) |
| Dividend yield | 2.39% | 16th consecutive annual increase |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | $105.51 | $120.3B | $37.91B | 3.17× | −24% |
| McDonald's | $257.38 | ~$181.6B | $27.70B | 6.56× | +58% |
| Yum! Brands | $154.55 | ~$42.2B | $8.72B | 4.84× | +16% |
| Restaurant Brands | $73.01 | ~$33.8B | $9.70B | 3.48× | −16% |
| Chipotle | $31.28 | ~$39.6B | $12.42B | 3.19× | −23% |
| Peer median | — | ~$40.9B | $11.06B | 4.16× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | $2.21 | 47.7× | −4.5% | 1.33 | Priced for a full margin recovery |
| Chipotle | $1.08 | 29.0× | +9.7% | 1.57 | Growth at a discount to its history |
| McDonald's | $12.31 | 20.9× | +3.7% | 2.87 | Defensive, slow growth |
| Restaurant Brands | $3.63 | 20.1× | +3.1% | 1.95 | Yield and franchise model |
| Yum! Brands | $7.93 | 19.5× | +12.2% | 2.68 | Steady compounding |
| Peer median | — | 20.5× | +6.7% | 2.32 | — |
Peer TTM EPS is price over the vendor P/E (derived); peer P/E is the vendor value scaled to the 29 Oct close. SBUX PEG uses FY2026 GAAP EPS growth (+36%); on forward figures (33.0× for +18% guided growth) it is ~1.9. Peer PEGs are the vendor's.
On sales Starbucks looks cheap because it runs its own stores; on earnings it is the most expensive name in the group by a wide margin. That premium only holds if the margin keeps climbing toward the 13.5–14.0% guide, so any sign of slippage would hit the multiple, not just the estimate.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 8 Sep 2025 – 29 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots 145 points, every second session. As of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 30 Oct 2026 report date. The reading predates the after-hours move. The Individual tab scales Volatility from −0.5 to +0.5.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.0039 | −0.2284 | 0.1073 | −0.3557 | 0.0773 | 94.1 | Near the window high (0.0773 on 9 Oct); first positive on 25 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility | 0.3131 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 81.3 | Elevated and rising into the print, from −0.05 on 22 Oct |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 1 session (29 Oct), after Volatile Chop on 23–28 Oct. Persistency sits within 0.05 of the axis, so the reading is on the boundary between Volatile Trend and Volatile Chop and the call is provisional. As of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 4.8% | 25 Sep – 13 Oct 2026 and 29 Oct |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 45.3% | Repeated bursts through the window |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 48.1% | The default state for most of the window |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 1.7% | 14 – 20 Oct 2026 only |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 7 | The usual cycle |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 5 | And back |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 2 | 25 Sep and 29 Oct 2026 |
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 1 | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Quiet drift → Quiet range | 1 | 21 Oct 2026 |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Volatile Chop had a median of +2.3% (67% positive, 127 observations) and from Quiet Range +0.5% (52%, 137). Volatile Trend has only 4 complete observations and Quiet Drift none (thin sample, no conclusion drawn). Over the last 500 sessions the unconditional median was +0.8% (53% positive). As of 29 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. For most of the past year Starbucks swung between a quiet range and choppy bursts, with Persistency well below zero. Since late September it has climbed to the zero line, so moves have started to extend rather than reverse. These statistics describe 8 Sep 2025 – 29 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.040 | 0.2 | −0.044 | −0.306 | 0.208 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.015 | 0.0 | −0.096 | −0.358 | 0.220 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.095 | 0.9 | 0.114 | −0.161 | 0.315 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.061 | 0.4 | 0.031 | −0.316 | 0.292 | Variable | Negative |
| Market Driver 5 | 0.023 | 0.1 | 0.003 | −0.268 | 0.325 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.358 | 12.8 | −0.118 | −0.702 | 0.244 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.014 | 0.0 | −0.232 | −0.419 | 0.408 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.045 | 0.2 | −0.134 | −0.187 | 0.424 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of SBUX against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Window 31 Oct 2024 – 29 Oct 2026, 500 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1 explains 12.8% of variance; its rolling reading has ranged from −0.70 to +0.24 and is −0.12 now. Drivers as of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | −0.00001 | −0.008 | 0.05% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.20588 | −0.357 | 99.95% |
Starbucks is an idiosyncratic, low-beta name. The broad market has explained almost none of its daily moves, and sector rotation only about an eighth. Over the next month the company's own holiday and labor news will decide the stock; an index hedge would offset little.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against SBUX daily returns, Jan 2025 – Oct 2026. On the latest reading (29 Oct) Market Driver 1 is −0.04 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.12. As of 29 Oct 2026.
SBUX daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window ~2 years to 28 Oct 2026, 499 overlapping days per group. Buckets under 30 days are marked thin (Bonds long Volatile Trend, 13 days, and Quiet Drift, 20; VIX Mid Volatile Trend, 19). The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Quiet Range | 97 | 19.4% | +37.0% | +126.4% | 27.4% | 4.61 | 58.8% | +7.82% | −4.51% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 102 | 20.4% | +18.7% | +52.7% | 28.5% | 1.85 | 50.0% | +8.11% | −5.12% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 146 | 29.3% | −9.9% | −16.5% | 24.5% | −0.67 | 45.2% | +4.04% | −3.96% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 154 | 30.9% | −27.6% | −41.0% | 37.8% | −1.09 | 48.7% | +10.69% | −11.90% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Quiet Range | 127 | 25.5% | +28.2% | +63.7% | 26.4% | 2.41 | 55.9% | +7.82% | −4.51% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 105 | 21.0% | +8.2% | +20.9% | 29.2% | 0.72 | 47.6% | +8.11% | −5.12% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 164 | 32.9% | −16.6% | −24.4% | 37.5% | −0.65 | 50.0% | +10.69% | −11.90% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 103 | 20.6% | −8.3% | −19.1% | 23.5% | −0.81 | 44.7% | +3.82% | −3.96% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 33 | 6.6% | +4.5% | +40.1% | 23.2% | 1.73 | 54.5% | +3.82% | −2.67% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 33 | 6.6% | +3.7% | +31.6% | 31.4% | 1.01 | 45.5% | +8.11% | −2.71% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 223 | 44.7% | +16.1% | +18.4% | 32.0% | 0.57 | 52.5% | +10.69% | −7.23% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 210 | 42.1% | −15.7% | −18.5% | 30.0% | −0.62 | 47.1% | +7.82% | −11.90% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe among buckets of 30 days or more. Cumulative return is the compounded SBUX return across all days spent in that regime (derived). Market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for SBUX | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | −9.9% | −0.67 | 5.70 | 39 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −8.3% | −0.81 | 3.22 | 39 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +4.5% | 1.73 | 2.35 | 33 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +44.3% | 2.18 | 3.14 | 112 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +10.7% | 1.50 | 3.16 | 2 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +8.8% | 0.59 | 0.73 | 88 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +4.7% | 0.48 | 2.88 | 3 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −21.5% | −1.26 | 2.17 | 3 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +21.0% | 0.39 | 1.59 | 60 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +4.4% | 0.95 | 1.44 | 5 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +6.0% | 0.41 | 3.55 | 123 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | +12.8% | 1.04 | 4.26 | 11 |
| Bonds mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +6.1% | 0.44 | 2.26 | 3 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −19.3% | −1.23 | 8.87 | 22 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5. Best and worst are by Sharpe and include thin buckets; Bonds long's "best" (Volatile Trend, 13 days) is a thin sample. Market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes roughly two years to 28 Oct 2026, not the future. Three buckets hold fewer than 30 days and are marked thin, and a handful of earnings-day moves (+8.5% in April 2026) dominate several totals. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 26 | Citi raises its target to $107 after the print; growth logic shifts to margin expansion (Futu News) | Mixed |
| 29 Oct 26 | Starbucks reports Q4 FY2026: comps +7.2%, non-GAAP EPS $0.80, revenue $9.1B; introduces FY2027 guidance (company release) | Positive |
| 29 Oct 26 | "Back to Starbucks started as our turnaround plan. Now, it's our growth plan." (CEO Brian Niccol, release) | Positive |
| 29 Oct 26 | Revenue miss overshadows solid FQ4 results and upbeat profit guidance (Seeking Alpha headline) | Mixed |
| 29 Oct 26 | Q4 revenue falls short at $9.14B as China divestiture weighs on International; shares fall nearly 2% after hours (BigGo Finance) | Negative |
| 29 Oct 26 | Stock stalls after mixed Q4 results (Benzinga headline) | Mixed |
| 27 Oct 26 | Red Cup Day set for 17 Nov; holiday menu from 5 Nov (Scripps News) | Neutral |
| 26 Oct 26 | BofA cuts its target to $136 from $143, keeps Buy (Stockanalysis.com) | Negative |
| ~25 Oct 26 | Options price a ±6.3% earnings move (TipRanks) | Neutral |
| 12 Oct 26 | Starbucks says it is not buying Chipotle; shares rise 1.7% (Bloomberg, Forbes, San Joaquin Valley Sun) | Positive |
| 8 Oct 26 | FT: Starbucks has worked with advisers on a possible Chipotle bid, with Niccol to lead it (Seoul Economic Daily) | Negative |
| 22 Sep 26 | About 250 North America coffeehouses to close; ~$300M of restructuring charges (SEC 8-K) | Neutral |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release and 8-Ks on EDGAR, Futu News, Seeking Alpha and Benzinga (headlines only; articles not accessible), BigGo Finance, Scripps News, Stockanalysis.com, TipRanks, Bloomberg, Forbes, San Joaquin Valley Sun, Seoul Economic Daily. The narrative has moved from a costly turnaround (store closures, a deal scare) to "turnaround becomes growth plan", with the debate now over valuation.
| Field | Starbucks Corporation | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Starbucks Corporation | — |
| Exchange / IPO | Nasdaq: SBUX · IPO June 1992 | McDonald's, Yum!, Chipotle and Restaurant Brands on NYSE |
| Domicile | United States (Washington; headquarters Seattle, WA) | Restaurant Brands is Canadian |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants (specialty coffee) | Chipotle is the closest company-operated peer |
| Market cap | $120.3B (1,140.1M shares × $105.51) | Second to McDonald's (~$181.6B) |
| Employees | ~381,000 (vendor) | The largest workforce in the group |
| TTM revenue | $37.91B (FY2026, to 27 Sep 2026) | The largest in the group |
| Revenue model | Company-operated coffeehouses (~81% of Q4 revenue), licensed coffeehouses (~13%) and other, including Channel Development (~6%); North America 80% of Q4 revenue | Peers other than Chipotle mostly franchised |
| Key differentiators | 41,607 coffeehouses (32% company-operated); a global premium coffee brand; a large rewards and stored-value base ($1.76B current stored-value and deferred revenue liability); 40% stake in the China joint venture | Labor-intensive model |
| CIK | 0000829224 | — |
| Website | investor.starbucks.com | — |
Starbucks' fourth quarter showed what the turnaround promised: global comps +7.2%, US transactions +2.4%, a North America margin of 12.3% against 4.5%, and FY2027 guidance for 16–19% EPS growth with buybacks resuming. Against that, revenue missed, International comps rose only 0.9%, and the stock had already risen 12% in a month to within 3% of its high, at 33× guided earnings. The muted after-hours move (~−1.8%) suggests the market had priced the good news. The window brings the holiday launch and Red Cup Day but no Starbucks report. The view turns bullish if holiday traffic holds, estimates rise and SBUX closes above $108.55. It turns bearish if a strike or soft holiday traffic hits and the stock falls back below $97.