Close 29 Oct 2026
$2.67
Third-quarter 2026 organic revenue rose 7.6% and normalized EBITDA 8.9%, to R$7.27B, about 1.5% below consensus. Normalized profit of R$4.39B (+14.3%) beat on lower financial costs and tax, but Brazil beer volume rose only 0.5% while the industry grew about 4%. Ambev holds R$19.2B of net cash and approved a new buyback of up to 190M shares. The ADR had already fallen 14.2% on 26 Oct after Lula won Brazil's runoff, and closed at $2.67, down 19.1% in four sessions. Over the next 10–30 days the new economic team, the real and the beer excise bill matter more than the quarter.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $2.67 on 29 Oct, down 19.1% from $3.30 on 23 Oct. It fell 14.2% on 26 Oct, when Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2% in Brazil's presidential runoff and the Brazil equity market ETF fell 19.8%, then 4.0% on results day. −8.6% over 30 days, +8.1% YTD, 22.2% below the $3.43 high of 6 May, 22.5% above the $2.18 low of 29 Oct 2025. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Net revenue R$21.59B, +3.6% reported and +7.6% organic, in line with consensus. Revenue per hectolitre +6.8%; total volume +0.8% organic. All units grew revenue: Latin America South +21.4% (Argentine price growth capped), Central America and Caribbean +8.1%, Brazil soft drinks +6.3%, Brazil beer +4.8%, Canada +1.2%. | Mixed |
| Profitability | Normalized EBITDA R$7.27B, +8.9% organic; margin 33.7% (+40 bps organic). Gross margin 51.0% (+60 bps organic). Normalized profit R$4.39B (+14.3%), normalized EPS R$0.28 (+15.4%). Net finance costs fell 71% to R$312M; the effective tax rate was 16.8%. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 14.1× TTM EPS (R$1.02) against a 17.5× peer median for AB InBev, Constellation and Coca-Cola FEMSA. EV/EBITDA 6.8× on normalized EBITDA of R$30.1B. Dividend yield ~4.6% at the new price. Net cash is ~8.6% of market cap. P/S 2.42× is above the 1.96× median because margins are higher. | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | Brazil beer volume +0.5% against ~4% industry growth (Nielsen), after +5% in Q2. Brazil beer organic EBITDA +1.0%, margin −130 bps, on higher marketing and distribution costs. Premium brands grew in the mid-teens, no-alcohol beer in the low thirties; mainstream fell. BEES Marketplace GMV +80%; Zé Delivery GMV +16%. | Bearish |
| Balance sheet | Net cash R$19.2B (cash R$19.2B and securities R$2.7B against R$2.7B of debt). Operating cash flow R$7.68B (+11%), with ~R$1.06B from working capital. A new buyback of up to 190M shares (~R$2.9B, ~1.2% of shares) runs 18 months. BRL/USD exposure is hedged for all of 2027. | Bullish |
| Regime state | Q2 Volatile Chop for 18 sessions (since 6 Oct). Persistency −0.329, the window low (0.3rd percentile), down from −0.17 on 23 Oct; Volatility +0.500, the window high (100th percentile). Not on a boundary. As of 29 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Bearish |
| Driver exposure | 96.6% idiosyncratic against the Market and Sector Drivers (Market Driver 1 0.084; Sector Driver 1 −0.155, R² 2.4%). But one-year correlation with the Brazil equity market is 0.69 (beta 0.71) and with AB InBev 0.57; with the S&P 500 only 0.17. Brazil, not the US market, decides the month. As of 29 Oct 2026. | Mixed |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Brazilian policy. Markets are waiting for the finance minister and the fiscal plan; the real weakened to R$5.39 per dollar on 29 Oct. The beer excise (Imposto Seletivo) rate bill was held back until after the election; BofA estimates that a rate above ~7% would erase the VAT benefit, and that each 5 points cuts 2027 Brazil beer EBITDA by ~4.2%. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Copom rate decision (4 Nov, just before; Selic 13.75%) and Molson Coors results (5 Nov, just before). Inside: the finance minister and fiscal announcements (date unknown), any submission of the excise-tax bill (date unknown), the monthly insider-trading disclosure (~10 Nov) and options expiry (20 Nov). The next Copom (9 Dec) and Ambev's 4Q26 report (~Feb 2027) are outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. The business is executing: organic EBITDA +8.9%, a 33.7% margin, R$19.2B of net cash and a new buyback. Brazil beer lost share this quarter, and the profit beat came below EBITDA. After a 19% fall the stock is cheap at 14× earnings. But it now trades as a Brazil macro asset, its own regime is at its most volatile and least persistent, and the excise-tax risk is still ahead. Composite 6.7 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (9 – 29 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came before the US open on 29 Oct, so that session is the reaction. Organic figures are company-defined (Argentine price growth capped at 2% a month). Consensus: InfoMoney (IBES net income R$3.9B; EBITDA 1.5% below consensus) and Genial Investimentos (EBITDA 1.7% below the consensus median; revenue in line). BRL values converted at R$5.387 per dollar (29 Oct close, InfoMoney).
Ambev's quarter was solid without being clean: EBITDA slightly missed, Brazil beer lost share, and profit beat on finance costs and tax. That matters less than the election, which cut the ADR by a fifth in four sessions. Over the next month the stock will move with the real and with Brasília.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (7.0). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.63 + 1.50 + 1.53 + 0.72 + 0.70 + 0.35 + 0.28 = 6.7 (6.70). Driver independence is scored down because the low readings against the US-based drivers hide a strong link to the Brazil equity market.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal plan and finance minister | Macro | Risk premium on Brazilian assets; equities and the real | Yes |
| Beer excise bill | Regulatory | Rate sets 2027 Brazil beer pricing and margins | Possible |
| Real depreciation | Macro | Lower dollar value of earnings and dividends | Yes |
| Downgrades | Market | BofA Underperform; Genial under review | Possible |
| Copom decision | Macro | Selic path for consumer demand (4 Nov, just before) | Possible |
| JCP deductibility dispute | Financial | R$33.5B possible exposure, not provisioned | Structural |
| Brazil beer share | Competitive | Mainstream volume decline; marketing costs | Structural |
| Argentina | Macro | Hyperinflation accounting; weak consumer | Structural |
Every live risk is about Brazil, not Ambev. The company can control its costs and buybacks but not the fiscal plan, the real or the excise rate, and those will set the stock's direction inside the window.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q26 | 29 Oct 2026 | R$21,595M | ≈0% (in line) | R$0.27 (R$0.28) | +9.4% | −4.0% |
| 2Q26 | 30 Jul 2026 | R$20,149M | n/c | R$0.22 (R$0.22) | +25.0% | +0.7% |
| 1Q26 | 5 May 2026 | R$22,465M | n/c | R$0.24 (R$0.24) | +14.0% | +16.2% |
| 4Q25 | 12 Feb 2026 | R$24,808M | n/c | R$0.28 (R$0.28) | −0.9% | +4.9% |
| 3Q25 | 30 Oct 2025 | R$20,847M | n/c | R$0.30 (R$0.24) | +9.6% | +5.5% |
| 2Q25 | 31 Jul 2025 | R$20,090M | n/c | R$0.17 (R$0.18) | −11.7% | −5.2% |
EPS is reported per share in reais (diluted for 3Q26, basic for earlier quarters), with normalized EPS in brackets. The surprise is the vendor's (Yahoo) dollar EPS against its estimate. Ambev reports before the US open, so the reaction is the same ADR session. 3Q26 revenue was in line with consensus (Genial); earlier revenue consensus not compiled (n/c). 21-session moves after each reaction, oldest to newest: +2.8%, +11.7%, −9.4%, −7.7%, −8.3%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | 1/1 in line | 67% (4/6) | Brazil beer cash COGS/hl only |
| AB InBev | n/c | n/c | Medium-term EBITDA growth |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | n/c | n/c | No formal guidance |
| Constellation Brands | n/c | n/c | Annual EPS and sales |
| Molson Coors | n/c | n/c | Annual sales, profit, EPS |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Peer beat histories were not compiled: the vendor's quote service returned errors during this session. Ambev's EPS beats have been driven by finance and tax lines as much as by operations.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Brazil beer cash COGS/hl | +4.5% to +7.5% | Excluding marketplace; maintained |
| 2027 FX | Hedged | BRL/USD exposure hedged for the full year |
| Buyback | Up to 190M shares | ~R$2.9B at 28 Oct; 18 months; mainly for cancellation |
| Excise tax | No guidance | Detail promised once there is visibility |
| Consensus 4Q26 EBITDA | ~R$9.1B | Genial R$9.11B, 0.5% below the street median |
| Next quarterly report | ~Feb 2027 | Outside the window |
Ambev gives little guidance, so the market reads each quarter on Brazil beer. This one showed share loss and a margin squeeze in that unit, offset by below-the-line gains. There is no further company report inside the window.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | BofA (via StocksToTrade) | Bearish | Moved to Underperform: weak operating trends, cost pressure, limited benefit from lower rates |
| 29 Oct 2026 | JPMorgan, Bradesco BBI, XP | Mixed | JPMorgan Neutral, R$16.50, "mixed" with part of the beat from non-cash FX; BBI Neutral, R$15.00, doubts on Brazil beer and 2027 costs; XP well below its estimates |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Genial Investimentos | Neutral | Neutral under review; target R$14.50 → R$15.50; EBITDA 1.7% below consensus, profit 9.0% above |
| Jul – Aug 2026 | UBS, Bernstein, Barclays | Mixed | UBS Sell, $2.90 → $2.85; Bernstein Hold; Barclays Hold, $3.50 |
| Jun 2026 | BofA | Bearish | Then Neutral, R$16; 2027 tax reform risk "not reflected in prices" |
| Consensus | 11–19 analysts | Mixed | Street median R$16.00 (2 Buy, 11 Neutral, 6 Sell, per Genial); Stockanalysis.com "Hold", mean $3.35 |
Sources: InfoMoney and Genial Investimentos (29 Oct 2026), StocksToTrade (29 Oct), Stockanalysis.com (targets last updated 11 Aug 2026), Eu Quero Investir (BofA, 2 Jun 2026). StocksToTrade reports a $3.30 BofA target alongside the Underperform rating, which sits above the price; we could not verify it against the bank's report. TradingKey listed BofA at Underperform as early as 26 Oct.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q26 (to 30 Sep) | Company | Buyback | — | — | R$680M | 2026 to date R$3.33B; new 190M-share programme |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Carla Crippa Prado (officer) | Sale | 60,757 | $3.09 | $0.19M | Small; ~43% of reported holding; filed 8 Oct |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Fernando Maffessoni (officer) | Initial holding (Form 3) | 874 | — | — | New reporting officer |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Ricardo Moreira (director) | Sale | 468,040 | $3.08 | $1.44M | Holds 3.0M shares after the sale |
| Oct 2026 | Ambev | Monthly securities report (CVM 358) | — | — | — | September trades disclosed 9 Oct; October due ~10 Nov |
Source: SEC Forms 3 and 4 on EDGAR (Jul – Oct 2026; three filings parsed), the 3Q26 cash flow statement, and Ambev's monthly 6-K filings. Insiders made no open-market purchases. AB InBev controls about 62% of Ambev, so the free float is small and the buyback matters for liquidity. Insider activity carries little signal for the window.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~Feb 2027 | Ambev (expected) | 4Q26 and full-year results; first read on 2027 costs and the excise tax | No |
| 8–9 Dec 2026 | Banco Central do Brasil | Next Copom meeting after November | No |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry after a 19% four-session fall | Yes |
| ~10 Nov 2026 | Ambev 6-K (expected) | Monthly CVM 358 report of October securities trading, including buybacks | Yes |
| Nov 2026 (date unknown) | Brazilian government | Finance minister and fiscal plan for the second Lula term; possible excise-tax (Imposto Seletivo) rate bill or provisional measure | Yes |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Molson Coors | Q3 results; beer category read-across (one-year correlation 0.28) | Just before |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Banco Central do Brasil | Copom rate decision; Selic 13.75% after five cuts in 2026 | Just before |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Ambev release | 3Q26: organic EBITDA +8.9%, normalized profit +14.3%, Brazil beer volume +0.5%; ADR −4.0% | No, sets the base |
| 29 Oct 2026 | AB InBev release | 3Q26: revenue +9.1% reported; Brazil revenue +5.3%, EBITDA +6.1%; BUD −1.8% | No, sets the base |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Ambev board | New buyback of up to 190M shares over 18 months | No, sets the base |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Motley Fool, TradingKey | Lula wins the runoff 51.8% to 48.2%; ABEV −14.2%, Brazil equity market ETF −19.8% | No, sets the base |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Ambev (call) | Final R$1.9B tranche of 2025 interest on capital paid | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 30 Oct 2026 report date (9 – 29 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Copom dates are from the central bank calendar (via Rankia); policy timing is not scheduled.
Just before: the Copom decision (4 Nov) and Molson Coors results (5 Nov). Any day: the new finance minister, the fiscal framework and a possible excise-tax bill, which move the real, Brazilian equities and Ambev's 2027 margin outlook. ~10 Nov: the monthly report showing whether buybacks began in October. 20 Nov: options expiry. Ambev has no results inside the window.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $2.67 | $41.3B | $17.04B | 2.42× | +3.6% | Hold · $3.35 | Negative |
| AB InBev (BUD) | $79.52 | ~$155.7B | $62.62B | 2.49× | +9.1% | n/c | Mixed |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) | $115.50 | ~$24.8B | $16.92B | 1.47× | +10.9% | n/c | Neutral |
| Constellation (STZ) | $130.35 | ~$22.5B | $9.21B | 2.44× | +6.1% | n/c | Neutral |
| Molson Coors (TAP) | $39.21 | ~$7.3B | $11.08B | 0.66× | −3.6% | n/c | Neutral |
| Peer median | — | ~$23.7B | $14.00B | 1.96× | +7.6% | — | — |
Prices are at the 29 Oct 2026 close. ABEV market cap uses 15.45B shares (one ADR = one share); TTM revenue for all five is the Stockanalysis.com dollar figure (ABEV's reais TTM is R$89.0B). Peer market caps (~) are Stockanalysis.com values (23–27 Oct) scaled to the 29 Oct close. Latest-quarter growth is reported, in local currency for Ambev (reais) and Coca-Cola FEMSA (pesos): AB InBev and Coca-Cola FEMSA to Sep 2026 (company releases), Constellation to Aug 2026 and Molson Coors to Jun 2026 (SEC XBRL). Peer consensus views were not available (n/c); ABEV consensus is Stockanalysis.com.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BofA (via StocksToTrade) | $3.30 (unverified) | R$16 (Jun) | 29 Oct 2026 | +23.6% | Underperform | ▼ Lowered (rating) |
| JPMorgan | R$16.50 | — | 29 Oct 2026 | +14.7% | Neutral | ► Maintained |
| Genial Investimentos | R$15.50 | R$14.50 | 29 Oct 2026 | +7.8% | Neutral (under review) | ▲ Raised |
| Bradesco BBI (H. Brustolin) | R$15.00 | — | 29 Oct 2026 | +4.3% | Neutral | ► Maintained |
| UBS (Rodrigo Alcantara) | $2.85 | $2.90 | 11 Aug 2026 | +6.7% | Sell | ▼ Lowered |
| Bernstein (Nadine Sarwat) | — | — | 3 Aug 2026 | — | Hold | ► Maintained |
| Barclays (Benjamin Theurer) | $3.50 | — | 28 Jul 2026 | +31.1% | Hold | ► Maintained |
Implied return is against the $2.67 close on 29 Oct 2026; reais targets are compared with the ADR price converted at R$5.387 (R$14.38). Sources: InfoMoney, Genial Investimentos and StocksToTrade (29 Oct 2026), Stockanalysis.com (targets last updated 11 Aug 2026), Eu Quero Investir (BofA in June). Most targets were set before the election-day fall, so implied returns are inflated by the move.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $2.67 |
| Consensus target | $3.35 |
| Median target | $3.44 |
| High target | $4.00 |
| Low target | $2.64 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +25.5% |
| Implied downside to low | −1.1% |
| Analysts contributing | 11 |
ADR targets from Stockanalysis.com (11 analysts, last updated 11 Aug 2026, so stale). Local consensus per Genial: median R$16.00 (~$2.97), from 19 analysts (2 Buy, 11 Neutral, 6 Sell).
| $2.64 |
| $3.35 |
| $3.44 |
| $4.00 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q25 | R$20,090M | −10.7% | +0.2% | R$0.17 | 50.0% | R$6,153M | 30.6% | Miss | −5.2% |
| 3Q25 | R$20,847M | +3.8% | −5.7% | R$0.30 | 51.5% | R$7,059M | 33.9% | Beat | +5.5% |
| 4Q25 | R$24,808M | +19.0% | −8.2% | R$0.28 | 52.6% | R$8,850M | 35.7% | In line | +4.9% |
| 1Q26 | R$22,465M | −9.4% | −0.1% | R$0.24 | 51.6% | R$7,555M | 33.6% | Beat | +16.2% |
| 2Q26 | R$20,149M | −10.3% | +0.3% | R$0.22 | 51.9% | R$6,377M | 31.6% | Beat | +0.7% |
| 3Q26 | R$21,595M | +7.2% | +3.6% | R$0.27 | 51.0% | R$7,271M | 33.7% | Beat | −4.0% |
Adjusted EBITDA is Ambev's normalized EBITDA; Margin is the normalized EBITDA margin. Revenue, margins and EBITDA are as reported in reais; organic growth was +7.6% in 3Q26 and +6.1% in 2Q26, well above the reported figures because of currency and Argentine hyperinflation accounting. "vs Est." is the vendor's EPS surprise (4Q25 −0.9%, shown as in line). Releases come before the US open, so the reaction is the same session. Q4 is seasonally the largest quarter (Brazilian summer).
Reported revenue moves with the Brazilian summer and with currency; the normalized EBITDA margin has stayed between 30.6% and 35.7%, peaking each fourth quarter.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.06 | 0.96 | 1.10 | 1.5–3.0 target · below; supplier financing is part of the model |
| Quick ratio | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.86 | ≥1.0 · below; current assets less inventory |
| Cash ratio | 0.54 | 0.45 | 0.60 | Cash and securities R$21.9B |
Derived from balance sheets in the 3Q26 and 4Q25 releases. Trade payables of R$21.2B are the largest current liability; Genial notes ~R$1.06B of Q3 cash flow came from longer supplier terms.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV (Sep 26) | 1.06 | +$3.56B | Very strong; net cash |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | 1.14 | −$2.31B | Adequate |
| Constellation Brands | 1.00 | −$10.22B | Adequate |
| Molson Coors | 0.88 | −$5.79B | Adequate |
| AB InBev | 0.66 | −$64.72B | Levered; deleveraging |
| Peer median | 0.94 | −$8.01B | — |
Peer figures from Stockanalysis.com (23–27 Oct 2026). ABEV net cash R$19.2B converted at R$5.387.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | Lower is safer · debt R$2.7B against equity R$91.4B |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | 8.0× (TTM) | 5.7× | 9.4× | >2.5 healthy · normalized operating profit over net finance results |
| Debt service coverage | n/m | n/m | n/m | >1.25 healthy · net cash; debt service is immaterial |
All ratios derived. Net finance results include FX, hedging and hyperinflation effects, not just interest, so coverage understates true debt capacity.
| Metric | 3Q26 | TTM | 3Q25 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 51.0% | 51.8% | 51.5% | 51.4% | 51.2% | ► Stable |
| Operating margin (normalized) | 25.8% | 26.3% | 26.2% | 25.7% | 24.5% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 20.2% | 18.3% | 23.3% | 18.1% | 16.6% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 33.7% | 33.8% | 33.9% | 33.4% | 32.5% | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 3.1% (q) | 11.3% | n/d | 10.4% | n/d | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 4.8% (q) | 18.0% | n/d | 17.0% | n/d | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 18.3% × 0.62 × 1.59 | — | 18.1% × 0.57 × 1.63 | — | Margin-led; little leverage |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios derived from the company's releases; TTM is 4Q25 – 3Q26. 3Q25 net margin included an R$885M gain on a subsidiary restructuring. FY2024 returns are not shown because the 2023 balance sheet was not in the materials reviewed (n/d).
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Brands | 52.8% | 32.8% | 20.9% | 37.2% | 24.0% | 1 of 5 |
| AB InBev | 56.5% | 26.8% | 14.9% | 31.5% | 11.4% | 2 of 5 |
| ABEV (TTM) | 51.8% | 26.3% | 18.3% | 33.8% | 18.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Molson Coors | 37.0% | 14.0% | −20.8% | 20.4% | −19.5% | 4 of 5 |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | 46.8% | 13.6% | 8.0% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 49.8% | 20.4% | 11.5% | 26.0% | 14.0% | — |
Peer ratios are TTM from Stockanalysis.com; peer EBITDA is vendor EBITDA, ABEV's is normalized. Rank is by operating margin. Molson Coors' net loss reflects impairments.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.62 | 0.57 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets (R$143.3B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$430k | — | On ~39,600 employees (vendor) |
| Normalized EPS growth (9M) | +12.3% | +7.3% (9M25) | 3Q26 +15.4% to R$0.28 |
| Organic revenue growth (9M) | +7.3% | +3.7% (9M25) | Volume +0.7% |
| Operating cash flow (9M) | R$15.6B | R$11.2B | +39%; capex R$2.5B |
| Dividend yield | ~4.6% | — | Vendor trailing yield rescaled to $2.67; Genial uses 6.2% forward |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | 0.92 | ~$155k | 108,925 | n/c | ~3.6% | 1 of 5 |
| AB InBev | 0.29 | ~$458k | 136,805 | n/c | ~1.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Constellation Brands | 0.42 | ~$980k | 9,400 | n/c | ~3.1% | 3 of 5 |
| ABEV | 0.62 | ~$430k | ~39,600 | +12.3% | ~4.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Molson Coors | 0.43 | ~$684k | 16,200 | n/c | ~4.9% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.43 | ~$571k | ~62,600 | n/c | ~3.3% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter reported revenue growth; on organic growth (+7.6%) Ambev would rank near the top. Peer data from Stockanalysis.com, with dividend yields scaled to the 29 Oct close (~); revenue per employee derived. Peer historical EPS growth was not available (n/c).
| Metric | 3Q26 | 3Q25 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated volume ('000 hl) | 42,385 | 42,419 | +0.8% org. | −0.1% reported |
| Brazil beer volume | — | — | +0.5% | Industry ~+4% (Nielsen) |
| Brazil beer net revenue | R$10.14B | — | +4.8% | Organic EBITDA +1.0%; margin −130 bps |
| Brazil soft drinks (NAB) volume | — | — | +3.6% | Revenue +6.3% |
| Normalized EBITDA margin | 33.7% | 33.9% | +40 bps org. | −20 bps reported |
| Cash COGS/hl (ex-marketplace) | — | — | +6.5% | 2026 Brazil beer guide +4.5% to +7.5% |
| BEES Marketplace GMV | — | — | +80%+ | BEES covers over 1M points of sale |
| Zé Delivery GMV | — | — | ~+16% | Monthly buyers +12% |
From the 3Q26 press release (SEC 6-K), the earnings call (MarketBeat) and Brazil Stock Guide. Growth rates are organic unless stated.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 14.1× | TTM EPS R$1.02 against the ADR price in reais (R$14.38); peer median 17.5× |
| P/E forward (Genial) | ~13.6× | 2026E EPS R$1.06 |
| Price / book | 2.43× | Equity attributable R$90.9B |
| Price / sales TTM | 2.42× | 2.50× in reais; peer median 1.96× |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.8× | EV R$203.0B over TTM normalized EBITDA R$30.1B |
| FCF yield (9M, annualised) | ~7.9% | (R$15.6B − R$2.5B capex) × 4/3 over market cap (derived) |
| Net cash / market cap | 8.6% | R$19.2B over R$222.2B |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $2.67 | $41.3B | $17.04B | 2.42× | +23% |
| AB InBev | $79.52 | ~$155.7B | $62.62B | 2.49× | +27% |
| Constellation Brands | $130.35 | ~$22.5B | $9.21B | 2.44× | +24% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | $115.50 | ~$24.8B | $16.92B | 1.47× | −25% |
| Molson Coors | $39.21 | ~$7.3B | $11.08B | 0.66× | −66% |
| Peer median | — | ~$23.7B | $14.00B | 1.96× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | R$1.02 | 14.1× | +3.6% | 1.15 | Cheap; priced for Brazil risk |
| Constellation Brands | $10.86 | 12.0× | +6.1% | 5.33 | Cheap on low growth |
| AB InBev | $4.54 | 17.5× | +9.1% | n/a | Global, levered parent |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | $6.08 | 19.0× | +10.9% | 1.57 | Growth premium |
| Molson Coors | n/m | n/m | −3.6% | n/m | Loss on impairments |
| Peer median | — | 17.5× | +7.6% | 1.57 | — |
Peer TTM EPS is price over the vendor P/E (derived; per ADS for Coca-Cola FEMSA); peer P/E is the vendor value scaled to the 29 Oct close. ABEV PEG uses 9M normalized EPS growth (+12.3%). Peer PEGs are the vendor's.
Ambev is the cheapest high-margin name in the group, with net cash where every peer carries debt. That discount is the market's price for Brazil, and the election has just widened it; it narrows only if Brazilian risk premia fall.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 8 Sep 2025 – 29 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots 145 points, every second session. As of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 30 Oct 2026 report date. The Individual tab scales Volatility from −0.5 to +0.5, so the current reading is at the top of the scale.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.3293 | −0.0668 | 0.0933 | −0.3293 | 0.1397 | 0.3 | The window low; −0.17 on 23 Oct, high of +0.14 on 30 Mar 2026 |
| Volatility | 0.5000 | 0.0017 | 0.2890 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 100.0 | At the scale ceiling; rising since early October |
Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 18 sessions (6 – 29 Oct). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not on a boundary. As of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 11.8% | 13 Mar – 5 May 2026, into the May high |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 38.8% | Five bursts, the latest since 6 Oct 2026 |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 48.4% | The default state |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 1.0% | 6 – 8 Apr 2026 only |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 5 | The usual cycle |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 4 | And back |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 1 | 13 Mar 2026 |
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 1 | 6 Apr 2026 |
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 1 | 9 Apr 2026 |
| Volatile trend → Volatile chop | 1 | 6 May 2026, after the 1Q26 report |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Volatile Chop had a median of −0.5% (46% positive, 94 observations), from Quiet Range +1.7% (56%, 137) and from Volatile Trend +5.2% (88%, 34). Quiet Drift has only 3 observations (thin sample, no conclusion drawn). Over the last 500 sessions the unconditional median was +0.7% (53% positive). As of 29 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Ambev usually alternates between a quiet range and choppy bursts; the election pushed it to the far corner of the chop quadrant, with the lowest Persistency and the highest Volatility of the window. Historically that state has been followed by flat-to-weak months. These statistics describe 8 Sep 2025 – 29 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.084 | 0.7 | 0.362 | −0.290 | 0.390 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.032 | 0.1 | −0.048 | −0.310 | 0.271 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.006 | 0.0 | −0.397 | −0.412 | 0.347 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.039 | 0.2 | 0.238 | −0.394 | 0.353 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | 0.062 | 0.4 | 0.320 | −0.152 | 0.343 | Variable | Positive |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.155 | 2.4 | 0.063 | −0.496 | 0.142 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.009 | 0.0 | −0.052 | −0.322 | 0.325 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.039 | 0.2 | 0.138 | −0.184 | 0.315 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of ABEV against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Window 31 Oct 2024 – 29 Oct 2026, 500 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Market Driver 1's rolling reading (0.36) is near its two-year high (0.39), so the stock has recently tracked the primary market factor more than usual, and Market Drivers 3 and 5 also show large current readings. Drivers as of 29 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00011 | 0.099 | 26.7% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.10077 | −0.164 | 73.3% |
Against the house drivers Ambev looks almost fully idiosyncratic, but that is because the drivers do not capture Brazil. In practice it trades as a Brazil equity and currency proxy. Over the next month, Brazilian policy and the real will decide the stock; a US index hedge would offset almost nothing.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against ABEV daily returns, Jan 2025 – Oct 2026. On the latest reading (29 Oct) Market Driver 1 is +0.36 and Sector Driver 1 is +0.06. As of 29 Oct 2026.
ABEV daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window ~2 years to 28 Oct 2026, 499 overlapping days per group. Buckets under 30 days are marked thin (Bonds long Volatile Trend, 13 days, and Quiet Drift, 20; VIX Mid Volatile Trend, 19). The market groups are US and global assets; none tracks Brazil directly. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 154 | 30.9% | +24.8% | +43.8% | 29.9% | 1.46 | 48.7% | +6.74% | −7.94% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 102 | 20.4% | +5.2% | +13.4% | 34.7% | 0.39 | 45.1% | +15.02% | −4.47% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 97 | 19.4% | −2.2% | −5.7% | 34.4% | −0.17 | 44.3% | +5.86% | −8.09% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 146 | 29.3% | −4.6% | −7.9% | 32.7% | −0.24 | 47.3% | +8.34% | −15.36% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 164 | 32.9% | +23.0% | +37.4% | 29.4% | 1.27 | 47.0% | +6.74% | −7.94% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 105 | 21.0% | +4.9% | +12.3% | 34.4% | 0.36 | 44.8% | +15.02% | −4.47% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 127 | 25.5% | −1.1% | −2.2% | 31.9% | −0.07 | 44.9% | +5.86% | −8.09% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 103 | 20.6% | −4.1% | −9.6% | 36.3% | −0.27 | 50.5% | +8.34% | −15.36% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 33 | 6.6% | +11.8% | +134.5% | 51.3% | 2.62 | 51.5% | +15.02% | −4.47% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 210 | 42.1% | +25.4% | +31.2% | 29.6% | 1.05 | 48.6% | +5.86% | −8.09% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 223 | 44.7% | −5.1% | −5.7% | 27.4% | −0.21 | 44.4% | +6.74% | −7.94% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 33 | 6.6% | −7.9% | −46.9% | 53.7% | −0.87 | 45.5% | +8.34% | −15.36% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe among buckets of 30 days or more. Cumulative return is the compounded ABEV return across all days spent in that regime (derived). Market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for ABEV | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −4.6% | −0.24 | 1.70 | 39 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −4.1% | −0.27 | 1.54 | 39 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −7.9% | −0.87 | 3.49 | 33 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | −11.6% | −0.45 | 2.26 | 112 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +5.9% | 0.52 | 2.12 | 2 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −9.6% | −0.40 | 1.08 | 88 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −26.1% | −1.33 | 7.97 | 3 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −39.9% | −1.66 | 4.62 | 3 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +61.8% | 1.05 | 2.81 | 60 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −7.5% | −0.74 | 4.01 | 5 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | +12.8% | 0.56 | 2.77 | 123 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −14.8% | −0.69 | 2.90 | 11 |
| Bonds mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | −3.6% | −0.20 | 1.69 | 3 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −10.7% | −0.57 | 2.79 | 22 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5. Best and worst are by Sharpe and include thin buckets; Bonds long's worst (Quiet Drift, 20 days) is a thin sample. Gold has visited only two regimes in the window. Market regimes as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes roughly two years to 28 Oct 2026, not the future. Three buckets hold fewer than 30 days and are marked thin, and a few large Brazil-driven days (−14.2% on 26 Oct, +16.2% on 5 May) dominate several totals. The groups are US and global assets, so they miss the Brazilian factor that has driven this stock. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 28 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 26 | Call highlights: Brazil beer +0.5% vs Nielsen ~3.5–4%; excise-tax detail to come "once there is more visibility" (MarketBeat) | Mixed |
| 29 Oct 26 | Ambev reports 3Q26: organic EBITDA +8.9%, normalized profit R$4.39B (+14.3%); buyback of up to 190M shares (company release) | Positive |
| 29 Oct 26 | Profit above expectations, but Brazil beer weakness weighs; ABEV3 falls (InfoMoney) | Negative |
| 29 Oct 26 | EBITDA below expectations in Brazil, profit beats; Genial keeps Neutral under review, target R$15.50 (Genial) | Mixed |
| 29 Oct 26 | Profit falls 10% as Brazilian beer volumes lag industry growth (Brazil Stock Guide, Rio Times) | Negative |
| 29 Oct 26 | ABEV slides as Bank of America turns bearish (StocksToTrade) | Negative |
| 29 Oct 26 | Ibovespa falls for a fourth day; dollar rises to R$5.39 on fiscal worries (InfoMoney) | Negative |
| 29 Oct 26 | AB InBev 3Q26: Brazil revenue +5.3%, EBITDA +6.1% (company release) | Neutral |
| 26 Oct 26 | Why Ambev dropped today: Lula wins the runoff 51.8% to 48.2% (Motley Fool) | Negative |
| 26 Oct 26 | ABEV moves down 15.3% as the runoff outcome hits Latin American equities (TradingKey) | Negative |
| 5 Oct 26 | ABEV +8.7% after Bolsonaro leads the first round 47% to 45% (price data; Motley Fool) | Positive |
| Apr–May 26 | Excise-tax rate bill postponed until after the election (Movendi, citing O Globo) | Neutral |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: Ambev and AB InBev releases (SEC 6-K), MarketBeat, InfoMoney, Genial Investimentos, Brazil Stock Guide, Rio Times, StocksToTrade, Motley Fool, TradingKey, Movendi. The narrative swung from a pre-election rally to a post-election sell-off; the quarter itself drew a mixed reception.
| Field | Ambev S.A. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Ambev S.A. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | B3: ABEV3; NYSE: ABEV (ADR, 1 ADR = 1 share) | AB InBev and Coca-Cola FEMSA also NYSE ADRs |
| Domicile | Brazil (headquarters São Paulo, SP) | Controlled by AB InBev (~62%) |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Staples · Beverages (brewers and soft drinks) | AB InBev is the parent and closest peer |
| Market cap | $41.3B (15.45B shares × $2.67); ~R$222B | Second to AB InBev (~$155.7B) |
| Employees | ~39,600 (vendor) | AB InBev 136,805; Coca-Cola FEMSA 108,925 |
| TTM revenue | R$89.0B (~$17.0B), 4Q25 – 3Q26 | Second to AB InBev |
| Revenue model | Beer and soft drinks across Brazil (beer R$10.1B of Q3 revenue), Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South and Canada; BEES B2B marketplace and Zé Delivery | Pepsi bottler in Brazil |
| Key differentiators | Leading Brazilian beer brands; BEES reaches over 1M points of sale; 33.7% EBITDA margin; R$19.2B net cash | The only net-cash name in the group |
| CIK | 0001565025 | — |
| Website | ri.ambev.com.br | — |
Ambev's third quarter was solid but not clean: organic revenue +7.6%, normalized EBITDA +8.9% at a 33.7% margin, profit +14.3% and R$19.2B of net cash with a new buyback. Brazil beer, though, lost share and margin, EBITDA was ~1.5% below consensus, and the profit beat came from finance costs and tax. None of that explains the 19% fall in four sessions, which came from the election. At 14× earnings and 6.8× EBITDA the stock is cheap, but it now trades on Brasília and the real, its own regime is at its most volatile, and the beer excise bill is still ahead. The view turns bullish if the new economic team steadies the real and the excise rate looks moderate, and ABEV reclaims $2.87–3.00. It turns bearish if fiscal signals disappoint or a high excise rate is proposed and the stock breaks $2.50.