Close 26 Oct 2026
$14.46
Q3 2026 adjusted net revenue rose 44% to a record $1.37B against a ~$1.26B consensus. Adjusted EPS was $0.18 against $0.17, and SoFi raised 2026 guidance and introduced a 2027 outlook of $6.4B revenue and $0.90 EPS. The stock came into the print at $14.46, down 45% year to date and 55% below its November 2025 high, and traded ~15% higher at ~$16.63 midday. But the Q4 guide is flat on Q3 revenue, and the 2027 plan assumes two rate hikes. Over the next 10–30 days the company has made its case; the FOMC on 28 Oct and the fintech peer prints decide whether a short-covering pop becomes a re-rating.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $14.46 on 26 Oct, −12.8% over 30 days, −44.8% YTD and −55.1% from the $32.21 close of 12 Nov 2025. It made a closing 52-week low of $14.22 on 14 Oct after hot inflation data hit lenders. Traded ~$16.63 (+15%) at 12:40 ET on the release, on ~107M shares. After the last two prints the stock fell on the day (−15.4%, −8.9%), then rose 17% and 26% over the next 21 sessions. | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Adjusted net revenue $1,371M, +44% YoY and +13.7% QoQ, against ~$1.26B consensus. Lending adjusted revenue +68% to $807M, Financial Services +25% to $525M, Technology Platform −24% to $87M (+18% excluding a departed client). Fee-based revenue $571M, 42% of the total. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Adjusted EBITDA $470M (+70%), a 34% margin against 29% a year ago. GAAP net income $241M (+73%), EPS $0.18 against $0.11. Pretax margin 22.9%. ROE is still only ~9% annualised (ROTCE ~10%) because the tax rate rose to 24% and marketing spend rose 55%. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | At $14.46: 26.3× TTM EPS, 23.7× the $0.61 2026 guide, 16.1× the $0.90 2027 outlook, 1.93× tangible book ($7.48) and 3.96× TTM sales, against a 3.71× peer median. At ~$16.63 the 2027 multiple is 18.5×. Mean target $20.22 (24 analysts, pre-print). | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | Record 1.2M new members (17.1M, +35%) and 2.2M new products (26.7M, +44%); 1.56 products per member against 1.47. Record originations of $16.9B, including $3.8B for the Loan Platform Business. Deposits $51.3B (+$5.8B QoQ). Net interest margin 6.14% (+16 bps QoQ). | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Total capital ratio ~17% against a 10.5% minimum; deposits are 90% of average liabilities. Debt $3.86B against cash $2.81B (+$4.99B securities). $52.5B of loans carried at fair value. The personal-loan default assumption rose to 5.10% from 4.77% and the discount rate to 5.56% from 4.97%, so marks remain a sensitivity. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q4 Quiet Drift: Persistency +0.058 (97.9th percentile of the window), Volatility −0.271 (22.8th). Held 31 sessions since mid-September. Not flagged borderline, but Persistency is only 0.008 above the 0.05 band, and today's 15% gap will push Volatility higher. As of 26 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 78.4% idiosyncratic on the drivers; Sector Driver 1 dominates (−0.465, R² 21.6%), Market Driver 1 ~0. But the one-year correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.60, with a beta of 2.64, and the correlation with Robinhood is 0.70 and with Upstart 0.69. SOFI amplifies the risk tape. As of 26 Oct 2026. | Bearish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Rates and the fintech tape. The FOMC decides on 28 Oct; the 2027 plan already assumes two hikes, and the 14 Oct inflation shock cost the stock 6.7% in a day. Robinhood (tonight), Upstart (3 Nov) and Nu (12 Nov) report into a group that is down 18–47% YTD. Short interest is ~17% of float, which cuts both ways. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | FOMC (28 Oct), Robinhood (27 Oct, after the close), Upstart (3 Nov) and the 10-Q filing (early Nov) just before the window. Inside it: Nu (12 Nov), October CPI (mid-Nov) and November options expiry (20 Nov). The next SoFi report (~late Jan 2027) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed, leaning constructive. The company delivered everything it controls: record growth, a margin step-up, a guidance raise and a 2027 outlook above the Street. The stock came in at a 52-week low with heavy short interest, so the first move was large. What follows depends on rates and the fintech group more than on SoFi: it moves 2.6× the index and with Robinhood and Upstart, and only 2 of 14 market groups sit in a regime where SOFI has had a positive Sharpe. Composite 7.1 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (6 – 26 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 26 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 23 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came before the open on 27 Oct; the session was still trading when this report was written (~$16.63 at 12:40 ET). Revenue consensus per StockStory (~$1.26B); EPS consensus per vendor ($0.17). Peer moves are year-to-date to 26 Oct.
SoFi's operating story did not break this year; its multiple did. A record quarter, a guidance raise and a 2027 outlook of $0.90 EPS put the stock at 16× next year's earnings at the pre-print price. For the next month the question is whether rates and the fintech tape let the market pay for that, not whether SoFi can deliver it.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.5). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.25 + 1.40 + 1.17 + 0.84 + 0.65 + 0.45 + 0.30 = 7.1 (7.06).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC and CPI | Macro | Rate hikes widen discount rates and pressure the multiple | Yes |
| Robinhood / Upstart / Nu prints | Competitive | Group trade at 0.69–0.70 correlations | Yes |
| Gap fade | Market | Short covering exhausts; Street targets near price | Possible |
| Index pullback | Market | Beta 2.64 amplifies any S&P 500 move | Possible |
| Regime turn | Market | Persistency near 0.05; chop is the base rate | Possible |
| Consumer credit | Structural | Personal-loan defaults and fair-value marks | Structural |
| Private-credit funding | Financial | Loan Platform Business buyers retreat | Structural |
| Dilution | Financial | Equity issuance to fund balance-sheet growth | Structural |
The company-specific risk that drove this year's decline, a lending-heavy mix the market did not want to pay for, is unchanged but well known. What can move the stock inside a month is macro: a rate decision tomorrow, an inflation print in mid-November and three fintech peer reports.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | $1,371M | +8.8% | $0.18 | +7.4% | ~+15% midday |
| Q2 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | $1,206M | +6.7% | $0.12 | +9.9% | −8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | 29 Apr 2026 | $1,087M | n/c | $0.12 | −4.2% | −15.4% |
| Q4 2025 | 30 Jan 2026 | $1,013M | n/c | $0.12 | +8.7% | −6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | 28 Oct 2025 | $950M | n/c | $0.11 | +23.0% | +5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | 29 Jul 2025 | $858M | n/c | $0.08 | +44.7% | +6.6% |
Revenue is adjusted net revenue (company non-GAAP). Reports come before the open, so the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 session was still trading at the time of writing (~$16.63 at 12:40 ET against $14.46). Revenue consensus: ~$1.26B for Q3 2026 (StockStory) and $1.13B for Q2 2026 (Fiscal.ai via Stocktwits); earlier quarters not compiled (n/c). EPS is the vendor's reported (adjusted) figure, except Q2 and Q3 2025, which are GAAP diluted from the releases; surprise percentages are the vendor's (Yahoo), computed on unrounded figures. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +11.4%, −10.0%, −18.4%, +17.4%, +25.8%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | 2/2 sourced | 91% (10/11) | Quarterly and annual; raised in Q2 and Q3 |
| Robinhood | n/c | 83% (10/12) | Annual expense outlook only |
| Upstart | n/c | 83% (10/12) | Quarterly revenue and margin |
| Ally Financial | n/c | 75% (9/12) | Annual NIM and charge-offs |
| Nu Holdings | n/c | 42% (5/12) | No formal guidance |
| Peer median (last 12) | n/c | 79% | — |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 adj. net revenue | ~$1.375B | +36% YoY; roughly flat on Q3 |
| Q4 2026 adj. EBITDA / EPS | $492M / $0.19 | Adjusted net income $276M |
| FY26 adj. net revenue | $5.04B | Raised from $4.75–4.85B; +40% YoY |
| FY26 adj. EBITDA / EPS | $1.66B / $0.61 | Raised from $1.60B / $0.60; net income $840M |
| FY27 outlook | $6.4B / $2.24B / $0.90 | Revenue +27%; net income $1.28B; two rate hikes, 24% tax |
| Capital | ~17% total capital | No raise assumed for 2027 growth |
| Next quarterly report | ~late Jan 2027 | Outside the window |
SoFi beats almost every quarter, so the beat alone has not moved the stock this year: it fell after two beat-and-raise prints in April and July. This time the 2027 outlook and the margin step-up are the new information. The next report and any guidance change fall outside the window.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 (print) | StockStory, Investing.com, Benzinga | Bullish | Revenue beat ~9%, EPS $0.18 vs $0.17; guidance raised; shares up double digits |
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Truist, TD Cowen | Bearish | Truist Hold, $19 → $16; TD Cowen Hold, $18 → $17.50 |
| Sep – Oct 2026 | StoneX, Scotiabank, Loop | Bullish | New coverage: StoneX Buy $25; Scotiabank Outperform $25; Loop Hold $22 |
| Jul – Aug 2026 | Mizuho, Needham, Piper Sandler | Mixed | Mizuho $29 → $22; Needham $25 → $24; Piper Overweight $22 |
| Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo | Bearish | Underweight $15; Equal-Weight $17 |
| Consensus | 24 analysts | Neutral | "Hold" (2.54); mean target $20.22, median $19.50, range $12–30 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus (retrieved 27 Oct 2026, pre-print values); StockStory, Investing.com and Benzinga earnings reports (27 Oct 2026). Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | Kelli Keough (officer) | Sale | 10,203 | $14.72 | $150k | Small; monthly pattern |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Jeremy Rishel, CTO | Sale | 18,624 | $17.50 | $326k | Small; after vesting |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Kelli Keough (officer) | Sale | 10,203 | $16.99 | $173k | Small; monthly pattern |
| 14 Sep 2026 | CEO, CFO, GC, CTO and officers | Quarterly vesting / tax withholding | 719,232 | — | — | Routine; CEO 345,554 |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Jeremy Rishel, CTO | Sale | 102,123 | $17.78 | $1.82M | Largest sale of the period |
| 16 Jun 2026 | Anthony Noto, CEO | Open-market purchase | 13,888 | $18.06 | $251k | Positive; now ~20% under water at $14.46 |
Source: SEC Form 4 via EDGAR and the Yahoo Finance insider feed; the latest Form 4 was filed on 22 Oct 2026. Officer sales since June total ~$3.0M and follow a monthly or post-vesting pattern. The CEO's June purchase is the only open-market buy in the period; he has made repeated small purchases in past years. Vesting rows show share counts only because no sale price was reported.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Jan 2027 | SoFi (expected) | Q4 2026 results; first read against the 2027 outlook | No |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry; ~17% of float is short | Yes |
| Mid-Nov 2026 | BLS | October CPI; the 14 Oct inflation surprise cost SOFI 6.7% in a day | Yes |
| 12 Nov 2026 | Nu Holdings | Q3 results; digital-bank read (0.43 correlation) | Yes |
| Early Nov 2026 | SoFi (expected) | Q3 10-Q filing: fair-value marks, credit tables and capital ratios in full | Just before |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Upstart | Q3 results; personal-loan funding and credit read (0.69 correlation) | Just before |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC decision; SoFi's 2027 plan assumes two rate hikes | Just before |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Robinhood | Q3 results after the close; the most-correlated fintech (0.70) | Just before |
| 27 Oct 2026 | SoFi release | Q3: adjusted net revenue $1.37B (+44%), EPS $0.18; 2026 guide raised; 2027 outlook $6.4B / $0.90 | No, sets the base |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Truist Securities | Target cut to $16 from $19, Hold | No, sets the base |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Market data | Falls 6.7% to a $14.22 closing 52-week low on hot inflation data | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 27 Oct 2026 report date (6 – 26 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Peer dates come from the vendor earnings calendar. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed; the exact CPI date was not confirmed at the time of writing.
Just before: Robinhood (tonight), the FOMC (28 Oct) and Upstart (3 Nov), which set the fintech and rate tone the window opens on. 12 Nov: Nu, on digital-bank growth. Mid-November: October CPI, the print most likely to move rate expectations and the loan-book discount rate. 20 Nov: options expiry with heavy short interest. SoFi has no scheduled event of its own in the window.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | $14.46 | $18.7B | $4.73B | 3.96× | +44.4% | Hold · $20.22 | Positive |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | $92.84 | $73.4B | $4.93B | 14.9× | +32.3% | Buy · $134.90 | Mixed |
| Nu Holdings (NU) | $12.59 | $47.9B | $8.44B | 5.68× | +52.1% | Buy · $18.97 | Neutral |
| Ally Financial (ALLY) | $38.81 | $11.8B | $8.00B | 1.48× | +5.0% | Buy · $47.45 | Neutral |
| Upstart (UPST) | $23.00 | $2.24B | $1.29B | 1.74× | +42.3% | Buy · $38.38 | Negative |
| Peer median | — | $29.9B | $6.47B | 3.71× | +37.3% | — | — |
Prices are at the 26 Oct 2026 close; SOFI traded ~$16.63 at 12:40 ET on 27 Oct. SOFI revenue is GAAP total net revenue, TTM to Sep 2026, from company releases (adjusted $4.68B). Peer figures are vendor TTM (Yahoo Finance), mostly to Jun 2026; Ally reported Q3 on 20 Oct but the vendor statements were not yet updated. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target. Market cap is vendor shares outstanding × close (derived).
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | $16.00 | $19.00 | 23 Oct 2026 | +10.7% | Hold | ▼ Lowered |
| StoneX | $25.00 | — | 13 Oct 2026 | +72.9% | Buy (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| TD Cowen | $17.50 | $18.00 | 6 Oct 2026 | +21.0% | Hold | ▼ Lowered |
| Loop Capital | $22.00 | — | 9 Sep 2026 | +52.1% | Hold (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| Scotiabank | $25.00 | — | 2 Sep 2026 | +72.9% | Sector Outperform (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| Piper Sandler | $22.00 | — | 17 Aug 2026 | +52.1% | Overweight | ► New coverage |
| Mizuho | $22.00 | $29.00 | 31 Jul 2026 | +52.1% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Needham | $24.00 | $25.00 | 30 Jul 2026 | +66.0% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| Wells Fargo | $17.00 | $18.00 | 30 Jul 2026 | +17.6% | Equal-Weight | ▼ Lowered |
| Morgan Stanley | $15.00 | $16.00 | 30 Jul 2026 | +3.7% | Underweight | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $14.46 close on 26 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Since the Q2 results (29 Jul), every target change on an existing rating has been a cut, except Truist's $18 → $19 raise in August, which it reversed in October. New coverage (StoneX, Scotiabank, Loop, Piper Sandler) has come in at $22–25. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $14.46 |
| Consensus target | $20.22 |
| Median target | $19.50 |
| High target | $30.00 |
| Low target | $12.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +39.8% |
| Implied downside to low | −17.0% |
| Analysts contributing | 24 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 27 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. At ~$16.63 the upside to consensus is +21.6%.
| $12.00 |
| $20.22 |
| $19.50 |
| $30.00 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $858M | +11.4% | ~+44% | $0.08 | n/m | $249M | 29.0% | Beat | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $950M | +10.7% | +37.7% | $0.11 | n/m | $277M | 29.2% | Beat | +5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1,013M | +6.7% | +37.0% | $0.12 | n/m | $318M | 31.4% | Beat | −6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1,087M | +7.3% | +41.1% | $0.12 | n/m | $340M | 31.3% | EPS miss | −15.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1,206M | +10.9% | +40.5% | $0.12 | n/m | $358M | 29.7% | Beat | −8.9% |
| Q3 2026 | $1,371M | +13.7% | +44.4% | $0.18 | n/m | $470M | 34.3% | Beat | ~+15% (intraday) |
Revenue is adjusted net revenue and the margin is adjusted EBITDA over adjusted net revenue (company non-GAAP, Table 6 of the Q3 release). Gross margin is not meaningful for a bank; net interest margin was 6.14% in Q3 2026 against 5.98% in Q2. Q2 2025 YoY is from the company's Q2 2025 release (~). Reactions are same-day close-to-close moves for pre-market reports.
Revenue rose every quarter shown, from $858M to $1,371M (+60% in five quarters). The EBITDA margin held at 29–31% for five quarters, through heavy marketing spend, then stepped up to 34% in Q3 2026. The Q4 guide implies ~36% ($492M on ~$1.375B).
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | n/m | n/m | n/m | 1.5–3.0 target · not meaningful: SoFi is a bank holding company with an unclassified balance sheet |
| Quick ratio | n/m | n/m | n/m | ≥1.0 · not meaningful for a deposit-funded lender |
| Cash ratio (cash / deposits) | 5.5% | 13.1% | ~9.8% | Cash $2.81B plus $4.99B of securities; liquid assets 15.2% of deposits |
Derived from reported balance sheets. Deposits $51.3B (Sep 26), $37.5B (Dec 25) and ~$26.0B (Dec 24, from the FY2024 release). The cash fall since December was matched by a rise in investment securities from $2.58B to $4.99B. Regulatory capital (~17% total capital against a 10.5% minimum) is the binding liquidity and solvency measure.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI (Sep 26) | n/m | −$1.05B | Adequate; deposit-funded, ~17% total capital |
| Nu Holdings (Jun 26) | n/m | +$9.27B | Strong |
| Robinhood (Jun 26) | 1.12 | +$0.98B | Adequate |
| Upstart (Jun 26) | 10.46 | −$1.60B | Adequate; funding-partner dependent |
| Ally Financial (Jun 26) | n/m | −$17.2B | Adequate; deposit-funded bank |
| Peer median | n/m | −$0.31B | — |
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.34 | 0.17 | 0.49 | Lower is safer · low; excludes $51.3B of deposits |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.09 | <0.5 conservative · passed; equity/assets 16.7% |
| Interest coverage | 1.77× (Q3) | 1.45× (FY25) | 1.21× (FY24) | >2.5 healthy · bank-style measure including deposit interest; improving |
| Debt service coverage | n/m | n/m | n/m | >1.25 healthy · not meaningful; corporate interest was only $10.8M in Q3 |
Debt $3.86B (Sep 26), $1.82B (Dec 25), $3.20B (Dec 24, vendor). Coverage is (pretax income + total interest expense) / total interest expense, because deposit interest is SoFi's main funding cost: Q3 $317.8M + $413.7M over $413.7M. On corporate borrowings alone, Q3 coverage was ~30×. Equity $11.3B, tangible book $9.7B ($7.48 a share).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | n/m (NIM 6.14%) | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| Operating (pretax) margin | 22.9% | 19.2% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 8.9% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 17.4% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 19.1% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 34.3% | 31.8% | 29.2% | 29.3% | ~24.9% | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 1.50% (ann.) | 1.32% | 1.29% (ann.) | 1.11% | 1.50% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 8.6% (ann.) | 7.0% | 7.1% (ann.) | 5.7% | 8.3% | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 15.6% × 0.085 × 5.31 | — | 13.3% × 0.083 × 5.11 | — | Margin-led; leverage stable |
All ratios derived from reported figures; margins on GAAP total net revenue except adjusted EBITDA (on adjusted net revenue). TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026. Returns use average balances across the period. FY2024 net income ($499M) included a large tax benefit, so its net margin and ROE overstate underlying profitability; its pretax margin was 8.9%. FY2024 adjusted EBITDA is from the FY2024 release (~).
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nu Holdings | n/m | 50.2% | 42.7% | n/d | 31.6% | 1 of 5 |
| Robinhood | 91.9% | 43.9% | 42.0% | n/d | 23.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Ally Financial | n/m | 27.3% | 18.6% | n/m | 9.9% | 3 of 5 |
| SOFI (TTM) | n/m | 19.2% | 15.6% | 31.8% | 7.0% | 4 of 5 |
| Upstart | 83.0% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | n/m | 35.6% | 30.3% | n/m | 16.8% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM (Yahoo Finance); vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures. Rank is by net margin. Upstart's EBITDA margin is vendor-reported EBITDA (unadjusted). SoFi's operating margin is its derived TTM pretax margin.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.085 | 0.083 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets ($55.7B TTM) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$775k | — | On ~6,100 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | +64% | — | $0.18 against $0.11; net income +73% |
| Member growth (YoY) | +35% | — | 17.1M; record 1.2M added in Q3 |
| Tangible book per share | $7.48 (+25%) | $5.97 | Grown despite dilution |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | — | No dividend; capital retained for growth |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nu Holdings | 0.116 | n/d | n/d | +66% | 0.00% | 1 of 5 |
| SOFI | 0.085 | $775k | ~6,100 | +64% | 0.00% | 2 of 5 |
| Upstart | 0.42 | $915k | 1,405 | +211% | 0.00% | 3 of 5 |
| Robinhood | 0.108 | $1.70M | 2,900 | +48% | 0.00% | 4 of 5 |
| Ally Financial | 0.041 | $777k | 10,300 | +10% | 3.61% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.112 | $915k | 2,900 | +57% | 0.00% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is derived as vendor ROA over vendor net margin. Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure; Upstart's is off a low base. Nu does not report a vendor employee count.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Members | 17.07M | 12.64M | +35% | Record 1.26M added in the quarter |
| Total products | 26.67M | 18.55M | +44% | 1.56 per member, against 1.47 |
| Financial Services products | 23.24M | 16.09M | +44% | Money and Relay each above 8M; Invest above 4M |
| Lending products | 3.43M | 2.46M | +39% | Personal 2.6M, student 760k, home 72k |
| Total originations | $16.9B | ~$9.9B | +70% | Includes $3.8B for the Loan Platform Business |
| Lending adj. revenue per product | $942 | $782 | +20% | $920 in Q2 2026 |
| Personal-loan charge-off rate | 2.26% | 2.60% | −34 bps | All-in, excluding delinquent-loan sales, ~3.4% (−80 bps) |
| Technology Platform accounts | 140.4M | 157.9M | −11% | Large client departed before Dec 2025; +6M QoQ |
From the Q3 2026 release (27 Oct 2026, SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1), Table 5 company metrics. Year-ago originations are derived from the reported 70% growth (~). Deposits were $51.3B at quarter-end (+$5.8B QoQ); fee-based revenue was $571M (42% of total, +21% QoQ).
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 26.3× | GAAP TTM diluted EPS $0.55; peer median 29.0× |
| P/E on FY26 guidance | 23.7× | EPS guide $0.61 |
| P/E on FY27 outlook | 16.1× | EPS outlook $0.90; 18.5× at ~$16.63 |
| Price / book | 1.66× | Book value $8.71 a share |
| Price / tangible book | 1.93× | Tangible book $7.48 a share; ROTCE ~10% |
| Price / sales TTM | 3.96× | Peer median 3.71× |
| EV / EBITDA | n/m | Not meaningful for a deposit-funded bank |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood | $92.84 | $73.4B | $4.93B | 14.9× | +302% |
| Nu Holdings | $12.59 | $47.9B | $8.44B | 5.68× | +53% |
| SOFI | $14.46 | $18.7B | $4.73B | 3.96× | +7% |
| Upstart | $23.00 | $2.24B | $1.29B | 1.74× | −53% |
| Ally Financial | $38.81 | $11.8B | $8.00B | 1.48× | −60% |
| Peer median | — | $29.9B | $6.47B | 3.71× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | $0.55 | 26.3× | +44.4% | 0.41 | Growth at a modest multiple of next year's EPS |
| Upstart | $0.50 | 46.0× | +42.3% | 0.22 | Low PEG off a low earnings base; 6.7× forward |
| Nu Holdings | $0.73 | 17.2× | +52.1% | 0.26 | Highest growth, high ROE; Brazil risk |
| Robinhood | $2.27 | 40.9× | +32.3% | 0.86 | Premium for 42% net margins |
| Ally Financial | $4.37 | 8.9× | +5.0% | 0.89 | Traditional bank multiple; 0.9× book |
| Peer median | — | 29.0× | +37.3% | 0.56 | — |
On trailing measures SoFi sits in the middle of the fintech group: P/S near the median and P/E below it. On its own 2027 outlook it trades at 16× earnings and under 2× tangible book, which is cheap for 27% guided growth if the outlook holds. The discount reflects doubt about lending-led earnings in a rising-rate year, and the window will not resolve that.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 3 Sep 2025 – 26 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots 145 points, every second session. As of 26 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 27 Oct 2026 report date. The reading predates the 27 Oct release and its ~15% gap.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.0582 | −0.1143 | 0.0677 | −0.2422 | 0.0775 | 97.9 | Mildly trend-persistent; positive only since 11 Sep, after a year of mean reversion |
| Volatility | −0.2709 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.4993 | 22.8 | Subdued before the print; a 15% gap will lift it |
Currently in Q4 Quiet Drift, held 31 consecutive sessions (14 Sep – 26 Oct) after a Quiet Range spell from late May to early September. Not flagged borderline, but Persistency is only 0.008 above the 0.05 boundary band, so a small decline would make the call provisional. As of 26 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 0.0% | Not visited in the window |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 50.5% | Sep–Dec 2025 peak and roll-over; Feb–Mar and Apr–May 2026 declines |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 38.8% | January and March 2026; late May – early Sep 2026 |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 10.7% | Since 14 Sep 2026, the only visit |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 6 | Volatility subsides after each sell-off leg |
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 5 | Earnings and macro shocks restart the chop |
| Quiet range → Quiet drift | 1 | Sep 2026: Persistency turns positive |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Volatile Chop had a median of −2.9% (40% positive, 146 observations), from Quiet Range −3.5% (38%, 112) and from Quiet Drift −13.1% (0%, 10 observations, thin sample, no conclusion drawn). Unconditionally the median was −3.5% (38% positive), in a stock that fell ~44% over the window. As of 26 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. For a year SoFi's Persistency was negative, which meant moves reversed rather than extended, while the stock halved. The turn positive in September is new and small. These statistics describe 3 Sep 2025 – 26 Oct 2026, a window dominated by a decline, and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.005 | 0.0 | 0.247 | −0.489 | 0.365 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.007 | 0.0 | −0.094 | −0.366 | 0.415 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.021 | 0.0 | −0.239 | −0.334 | 0.395 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.010 | 0.0 | 0.056 | −0.369 | 0.313 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.022 | 0.0 | −0.043 | −0.358 | 0.333 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.465 | 21.6 | −0.494 | −0.788 | −0.117 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.034 | 0.1 | 0.181 | −0.534 | 0.438 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.079 | 0.6 | −0.054 | −0.550 | 0.371 | Variable | Negative |
Methodology: daily log returns of SOFI against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 28 Oct 2021 – 26 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1 is the only driver with material explanatory power (R² 21.6%), and its rolling reading has stayed negative throughout (−0.79 to −0.12; −0.49 now), so the sign is stable even though the size varies. Market Driver 1 is near zero over the full window. Drivers as of 26 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00001 | 0.002 | 0.0% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.52436 | −0.465 | 100.0% |
On the drivers SoFi is mostly idiosyncratic, with one sector factor explaining a fifth of its moves. In practice it trades as a high-beta fintech: 2.6× the index and with Robinhood and Upstart. For the next 10–30 days the company has said its piece, so the index, rates and the fintech group will decide the month.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against SOFI daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 has stayed negative throughout; Market Driver 1 has swung around zero. On the latest plotted reading (23 Oct) Market Driver 1 is +0.25 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.50. As of 26 Oct 2026.
SOFI daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 23 Oct 2026, 1,182 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 70), so none is marked thin. SoFi's annualised volatility is 58–71% in every US market, SP500 and Global market bucket, so Sharpe ratios are modest even where returns are large. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 172 | 14.6% | +79.1% | +134.9% | 58.5% | 2.31 | 53.5% | +11.74% | −16.77% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 284 | 24.0% | −4.0% | −3.6% | 62.9% | −0.06 | 47.2% | +18.14% | −10.83% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 307 | 26.0% | −11.2% | −9.3% | 58.4% | −0.16 | 48.9% | +18.41% | −16.57% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 419 | 35.4% | −18.4% | −11.5% | 70.7% | −0.16 | 48.0% | +24.99% | −14.58% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 178 | 15.1% | +21.9% | +32.3% | 59.0% | 0.55 | 52.2% | +8.41% | −16.77% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 350 | 29.6% | +49.1% | +33.3% | 62.3% | 0.54 | 48.0% | +18.14% | −10.83% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 413 | 34.9% | −3.7% | −2.3% | 69.6% | −0.03 | 50.1% | +24.99% | −14.58% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 241 | 20.4% | −28.8% | −29.9% | 60.4% | −0.49 | 45.2% | +18.41% | −16.57% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 448 | 37.9% | +95.0% | +45.6% | 68.0% | 0.67 | 49.8% | +24.99% | −12.85% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 254 | 21.5% | +15.1% | +15.0% | 59.9% | 0.25 | 50.0% | +18.41% | −16.57% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.1% | −8.7% | −14.8% | 62.4% | −0.24 | 47.6% | +11.74% | −16.77% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 337 | 28.5% | −39.2% | −31.1% | 62.4% | −0.50 | 47.2% | +10.03% | −14.58% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded SOFI return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 23 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for SOFI | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | −11.2% | −0.16 | 2.47 | 36 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −28.8% | −0.49 | 1.04 | 36 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +15.1% | 0.25 | 1.17 | 30 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | −48.1% | −0.56 | 3.49 | 109 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −32.9% | −0.77 | 1.15 | 1 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −57.4% | −0.78 | 2.53 | 85 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +64.4% | 1.24 | 1.90 | 30 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −23.6% | −0.36 | 1.15 | 28 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | −17.2% | −0.17 | 2.06 | 57 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −37.4% | −0.82 | 1.31 | 39 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −46.4% | −0.68 | 2.67 | 120 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −33.8% | −0.76 | 2.25 | 8 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −32.2% | −0.29 | 3.34 | 26 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −10.4% | −0.11 | 1.80 | 19 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning SOFI is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 23 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 23 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days; where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. SoFi's very high volatility makes every Sharpe in these tables noisy. Market regime series as of 23 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 26 | SoFi reports Q3 2026 with record net revenue of $1.4B and net income of $241M, and raises full-year guidance (company release) | Positive |
| 27 Oct 26 | Introduces a 2027 outlook of $6.4B adjusted net revenue, $2.24B adjusted EBITDA and $0.90 EPS (release) | Positive |
| 27 Oct 26 | SoFi tops Q3 estimates; shares jump ~11% pre-market (Investing.com); up ~15% by midday (market data) | Positive |
| 27 Oct 26 | Call: SoFi Plus subscriber growth below management's expectations; Q4 revenue guide flat on Q3 (Investing.com transcript) | Mixed |
| 23 Oct 26 | Truist cuts its target to $16 from $19, Hold (Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
| 14 Oct 26 | SoFi falls 6.7% to a 52-week low on banking weakness and hot inflation; Robinhood −8.5%, Affirm −9.7% (Motley Fool) | Negative |
| 13 Oct 26 | StoneX initiates at Buy with a $25 target (Yahoo Finance) | Positive |
| 6 Oct 26 | TD Cowen trims its target to $17.50, Hold (Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
| 29 Sep 26 | SoFi schedules its Q3 2026 conference call for 27 Oct (Business Wire) | Neutral |
| 14 Aug 26 | "SoFi stock keeps falling despite 'exceptional' earnings": the macro, and two expected rate hikes instead of two cuts (Barchart via Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
| 30 Jul 26 | Mizuho, Needham, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley cut targets after Q2 (Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
| 29 Jul 26 | Q2 beat; revenue guide raised to $4.75–4.85B, EBITDA guide held; stock −8.9% (Stocktwits) | Mixed |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1), Investing.com, StockStory, Motley Fool, Barchart via Yahoo Finance, Stocktwits, Business Wire, Yahoo Finance rating log; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "growth without earnings leverage, in a rate-hike year" (spring and summer) to "beat, raise and a 2027 outlook above the Street" (today). The October macro shock is the unresolved part.
| Field | SoFi Technologies, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | SoFi Technologies, Inc. | Operates SoFi Bank, N.A. |
| Exchange / IPO | NASDAQ: SOFI · listed June 2021 through a SPAC merger | Robinhood and Upstart listed 2020–21; Nu NYSE 2021 |
| Domicile | United States (Delaware; headquarters San Francisco, CA) | Nu Cayman Islands / Brazil |
| Sector / industry | Financial Services · Credit Services; bank holding company | Ally the closest in charter; Robinhood in brokerage |
| Market cap | $18.7B (1,296.6M shares × $14.46) | Third of five; Robinhood $73.4B |
| Employees | ~6,100 (vendor) | Ally 10,300; Upstart 1,405 |
| TTM revenue | $4.73B GAAP ($4.68B adjusted), Q4 2025 – Q3 2026 | Fourth of five |
| Revenue model | Three segments: Lending (59% of Q3 adjusted revenue), Financial Services (38%) and Technology Platform (6%), less corporate eliminations. Net interest income was 67% of Q3 net revenue; fee-based revenue was 42% (the company's overlapping definition). | Robinhood fee-led; Ally interest-led |
| Key differentiators | National bank charter with $51.3B of low-cost deposits; 17.1M members and 1.56 products each; a Loan Platform Business that originates for third parties; in-house Galileo and Technisys processing | Few US fintechs hold a bank charter |
| CIK | 0001818874 | — |
| Website | sofi.com | — |
SoFi delivered its best quarter: adjusted net revenue +44% to $1.37B, adjusted EBITDA +70% to a 34% margin, record members and products, and better credit. It raised 2026 guidance and put out a 2027 outlook of $0.90 EPS, which values the stock at 16× next year's earnings at the pre-print price. The stock came into the print at a 52-week low with ~17% of its float short, and the first-day gap of ~15% reflects both. What it lacks is a supportive backdrop: a 2.6 beta, a rate path that the company's own plan assumes will tighten, a fintech group under pressure, and a market-regime map where only 2 of 14 groups have favoured SOFI. The view turns bullish if the FOMC and the fintech prints pass without damage and SOFI closes above its $17.99 200-day average. It turns bearish if rates reprice higher and the stock gives back the gap below $14.22, its 52-week closing low.