Close 27 Oct 2026
$45.06
Q3 2026 sales rose only 1.5% to $5.14B, roughly in line with consensus, after the 25 August cyberattack cost ~300 bps of growth and ~$0.07 of EPS. Adjusted EPS was $0.73, below the company's own $0.80–0.82 guide. Q4 sales are now guided to fall 1–3%, and management expects 2027 to be "the trough", with electrophysiology and WATCHMAN still losing ground. The stock, already down 53% this year, traded ~8% lower at ~$41.64. Over the next 10–30 days the bad news is largely out; the question is whether a 14× multiple and insider buying can hold a floor before there is any growth to point to.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $45.06 on 27 Oct, −52.7% YTD and −57.1% from the $104.98 close of 13 Nov 2025. Steps down: −17.6% on 4 Feb (US EP), −16% over 27–29 May (WATCHMAN), then the 25 Aug cyberattack. Traded ~$41.64 (−7.6%) at 10:10 ET on the release, after an intraday low of $39.57, below the $41.58 closing low of 7 Oct. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Net sales $5.138B, +1.5% reported and organic, against ~$5.07–5.12B consensus. Cardiovascular +1.9%, MedSurg +0.7%; Neuromodulation +13%, Urology −3%. EP −5% (US −8%), WATCHMAN −6% (US −7%). The cyberattack cost ~300 bps. Q4 guided to −3% to −1%, against ~$5.42B consensus. | Bearish |
| Profitability | Adjusted EPS $0.73 against $0.75 a year ago; vendor consensus $0.72, other polls $0.75, company guide $0.80–0.82. Adjusted gross margin 68.0% (−300 bps), adjusted operating margin 26.5% (−150 bps). GAAP operating margin 16.1% against 20.7%, after $81M of litigation and $63M of restructuring charges. | Mixed |
| Valuation vs peers | 14.1× TTM adjusted EPS ($3.19) and 14.2× the $3.17 2026 guide midpoint. GAAP P/E 19.0× against a 29.8× peer median; P/S 3.09× against 4.23×; EV/EBITDA ~13×. Consensus target $57.82 (30 analysts, pre-print), 28% above the close. | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | FARAPULSE is losing PFA share, and the next-generation FARAWAVE Ultra has slipped to early 2028. US standalone WATCHMAN procedures fell in the high teens, while concomitant procedures grew ~35%; a new WATCHMAN competitor is coming. Neuromodulation +13% and LACA +10.5% operational were the bright spots. | Bearish |
| Balance sheet | Debt $12.6B against cash of $0.5–0.6B (Jun–Sep); gross leverage 1.9×. Q3 FCF $867M. Share count down to ~1.45B from 1.49B, with buybacks a stated priority. The Penumbra acquisition now closes in early 2027, and its dilution will be larger than the original $0.06–0.08. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q3 Quiet Range: Persistency −0.130 (50.5th percentile; negative throughout the window), Volatility −0.424 (7.6th). Held 25 sessions since 23 Sep. BSX has alternated only between Quiet Range and Volatile Chop for 14 months, both mean-reverting. Not borderline. As of 27 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 90.1% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 −0.314 (R² 9.9%); Market Driver 1 ~0. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is just 0.05 (beta 0.16); with Medtronic 0.47 and Stryker 0.42. Company news has decided every move this year. As of 27 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Post-print estimate cuts. Analysts must lower Q4 and 2027 numbers, and recent targets cluster at $48–56. After three of the last five prints the stock fell a further 5–12% over the next 21 sessions. Peer and conference data (Medtronic ~18 Nov, AHA mid-November) may show further share loss in PFA and left atrial appendage closure. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Just before: FOMC (28 Oct) and the 10-Q (early Nov, expected). Inside: AHA Scientific Sessions (mid-Nov, expected), Medtronic Q2 FY27 results (~18 Nov, expected) and options expiry (20 Nov). The next BSX report (~early Feb 2027) and the Penumbra close (early 2027) are outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. The fundamental picture got worse: Q4 sales will fall, 2027 will be flat, and the two growth engines are losing share. But the stock has already lost more than half its value, trades at ~14× earnings against peers near 30×, and the CEO bought $9.0M of stock at $48 in August. With a mean-reverting regime, a favourable market map and almost no index linkage, a range near the lows is more likely than either a recovery or a collapse. Composite 6.4 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (7 – 27 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came before the open on 28 Oct; the session was still trading when this report was written (~$41.64 at 10:10 ET). Revenue consensus: StockStory ($5.07B) and Investing.com (~$5.12B). Cyber impact, EP, WATCHMAN and margin detail from the Investing.com call transcript.
Boston Scientific has gone from a growth leader to a turnaround in nine months. Management has now said 2027 is the trough, which caps how bad the guidance can get from here but gives the stock nothing to rally on. For the next month the multiple and insider buying should support the price, while estimate cuts and peer data keep a lid on it.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.0). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.00 + 1.60 + 1.35 + 0.78 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.45 = 6.4 (6.38).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate and target cuts | Market | Q4 guide ~4.5% below consensus; flat 2027 | Yes |
| AHA competitive data | Competitive | Rival PFA and LAAO results | Possible |
| Medtronic results | Competitive | Cardiac ablation share read-across | Possible |
| Cyber after-effects | Operational | Q4 destocking; investigation and litigation | Possible |
| PFA share loss | Structural | Next-generation catheter delayed to 2028 | Structural |
| WATCHMAN demand | Structural | Referral shift away from standalone procedures | Structural |
| Penumbra dilution | Financial | Higher rates raise deal cost | Structural |
| China pricing | Macro | Procurement price cuts | Structural |
The risks that matter inside a month are about confirmation, not new shocks: analysts resetting numbers, and peer data showing whether share loss in PFA and WATCHMAN is still accelerating. The structural problems will take until 2028 to resolve.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28 Oct 2026 | $5,138M | +1.4% | $0.73 | +0.9% | ~−7.6% (intraday) |
| Q2 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | $5,442M | n/c | $0.86 | +3.9% | 0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 22 Apr 2026 | $5,203M | n/c | $0.80 | +1.6% | +9.0% |
| Q4 2025 | 4 Feb 2026 | $5,286M | n/c | $0.80 | +2.4% | −17.6% |
| Q3 2025 | 22 Oct 2025 | $5,065M | n/c | $0.75 | +5.1% | +4.0% |
| Q2 2025 | 23 Jul 2025 | $5,061M | n/c | $0.75 | +3.4% | +4.5% |
EPS is adjusted EPS. Reports come before the open, so the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move; Q3 2026 is the move to ~$41.64 at 10:10 ET. Revenue consensus for Q3 2026 per StockStory ($5.07B); earlier quarters not compiled (n/c). EPS surprise percentages are the vendor's (Yahoo); Investing.com put Q3 consensus at $0.75, which would make it a miss. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: −2.4%, −7.0%, −5.5%, −11.9%, +1.4%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSX | 1/1 sourced | 100% (12/12) | Quarterly and annual; cut in July and October 2026 |
| Medtronic | n/c | n/c | Annual organic growth and EPS |
| Abbott | n/c | n/c | Annual organic growth and EPS |
| Stryker | n/c | n/c | Annual organic growth and EPS |
| Edwards Lifesciences | n/c | n/c | Annual sales and EPS |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Peer beat histories could not be retrieved: the vendor's quote service was unavailable during this session.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 net sales | −3% to −1% | Reported and organic; ~$5.18B midpoint vs ~$5.42B consensus |
| Q4 2026 adjusted EPS | $0.77–0.79 | Includes a $0.04–0.05 cyber drag |
| FY26 net sales | ~+4.25% (organic ~+3.75%) | From 5–6% organic in July |
| FY26 adjusted EPS | $3.16–3.18 | Cut ~3.9% at the midpoint |
| FY26 adj. operating margin | ~27.6% | Q3 26.5% |
| 2027 | Trough year | Flat sales and EPS excluding Penumbra; return to growth in 2028 |
| Next quarterly report | ~early Feb 2027 | Outside the window |
BSX still beats the consensus it is measured against, but that consensus has been chasing guidance down all year: a September warning and two cuts to 2026, and now a flat 2027. The stock reacts to guidance, not to beats. The next report and any further guidance change fall outside the window.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 (print) | StockStory, Investing.com, Seeking Alpha | Bearish | Sales slightly ahead; EPS below guidance; Q4 guide ~4.5% below consensus; shares −8% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Stifel, TD Cowen | Bullish | Stifel Buy, $60 → $55; TD Cowen Buy $56, calling the cyberattack a one-time event |
| Oct 2026 | Truist, Mizuho, Bernstein | Mixed | Buy/Outperform held; targets cut to $51, $55 and $54; Bernstein cites Abbott's Amulet 360 |
| Sep – Oct 2026 | Citi, Barclays, Wells Fargo | Bearish | Citi downgraded to Neutral ($48, downside catalyst watch); Barclays initiated Equal Weight $48; Wells Fargo Equal Weight $48 |
| May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Bearish | Downgraded to Equal Weight, $75 → $55, on the WATCHMAN outlook |
| Consensus | 30 analysts | Bullish | "Buy"; mean target $57.82 (pre-print) |
Sources: Stockanalysis.com consensus and action log (27 Oct 2026), Investing.com (Stifel note, 26 Oct; call transcript, 28 Oct), StockStory, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool (May 2026). Post-print target changes had not been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2026 | Susan Morano (director) | Open-market purchase | 2,040 | $49.22 | $100k | Positive |
| 3–5 Aug 2026 | David Habiger (director) | Open-market purchases | 3,282 | ~$47.8 | $157k | Positive; repeat buyer |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Michael Mahoney, Chairman & CEO | Open-market purchase | 186,240 | $48.33 | $9.0M | Strongly positive; 14% under water at ~$41.6 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Edward Ludwig (director) | Open-market purchase | 5,000 | $45.48 | $227k | Positive |
| 31 Jul – 11 Aug 2026 | Fitzgerald (incoming COO), Monson (CFO), Woodworth (CAO) | Discretionary plan acquisitions (code I) | 77,036 | $46.73–51.19 | ~$3.6M | Positive |
| 19–20 May 2026 | Directors Habiger, Ludwig, Pegus | Open-market purchases | 9,800 | $55.92–56.95 | ~$0.56M | Positive; ~26% under water |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR (May – Sep 2026). Insiders bought ~$14M of stock between May and August with no meaningful selling; the CEO's 28 May filing was a gift of 386,755 shares (no sale). Code I is a discretionary transaction under an employee plan, shown separately from open-market buys. Board change: Arthur Butcher (Group President, MedSurg and APAC) retires 1 Jan 2027; Joseph Fitzgerald becomes COO and three new segments start the same day.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early 2027 | Boston Scientific | Penumbra acquisition expected to close; COO appointment and new segments from 1 Jan | No |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry after the post-print reset | Yes |
| ~18 Nov 2026 | Medtronic (expected) | Q2 FY27 results; cardiac ablation and PFA share read (0.47 correlation) | Yes |
| Mid-Nov 2026 | American Heart Association (expected) | Scientific Sessions; competing PFA and left atrial appendage closure data | Yes |
| Early Nov 2026 | Boston Scientific (expected) | Q3 10-Q: cyber costs, litigation and full segment detail | Just before |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Boston Scientific release | Q3: sales +1.5%, adj. EPS $0.73; Q4 sales guided −1% to −3%; 2027 called the trough; stock ~−8% | No, sets the base |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Stifel | Target cut to $55 from $60 on the cyberattack, Buy | No, sets the base |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Boston Scientific (8-K) | Joseph Fitzgerald named COO from 1 Jan; three new reportable segments | No, sets the base |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Boston Scientific (8-K) | Cyberattack declared material; Q3 and FY26 guidance withdrawn as unlikely to be met | No, sets the base |
| 25–26 Aug 2026 | Boston Scientific (8-K) | Cyberattack disrupts manufacturing and order processing globally | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 28 Oct 2026 report date (7 – 27 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Just before: the FOMC (today) and the Q3 10-Q. Mid-November: the AHA Scientific Sessions, where rival PFA and left atrial appendage data could add to the share-loss story. ~18 Nov: Medtronic's results, the closest read on cardiac ablation share. 20 Nov: options expiry. Boston Scientific has no scheduled event of its own in the window; analyst estimate resets will run through it.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSX | $45.06 | $65.2B | $21.07B | 3.09× | +1.5% | Buy · $57.82 | Negative |
| Abbott (ABT) | $103.10 | $179.6B | $45.13B | 3.98× | ~+7.8% | n/c | Neutral |
| Medtronic (MDT) | $93.95 | $120.3B | $37.54B | 3.20× | +13.7% | n/c | Positive |
| Stryker (SYK) | $301.42 | $115.7B | $25.84B | 4.48× | +9.4% | n/c | Neutral |
| Edwards Lifesciences (EW) | $90.82 | $52.4B | $6.51B | 8.05× | +13.6% | n/c | Positive |
| Peer median | — | $118.0B | $31.69B | 4.23× | +11.5% | — | — |
Prices are at the 27 Oct 2026 close; BSX traded ~$41.64 at 10:10 ET on 28 Oct. BSX revenue is TTM to Sep 2026 from company filings. Peer revenue is the sum of the latest four quarters in vendor statements (Medtronic to Jul 2026; Stryker and Edwards to Jun 2026; Abbott to Mar 2026), and growth is the latest such quarter, so peers' October reports are not yet included. Abbott's growth is approximate (~). Market cap is vendor share count × close (derived). Peer consensus views were not available (n/c) because the vendor's quote service was down during this session; BSX consensus is from Stockanalysis.com.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | $55 | $60 | 26 Oct 2026 | +22.1% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| TD Cowen | $56 | $56 | ~26 Oct 2026 | +24.3% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Truist | $51 | $57 | ~14 Oct 2026 | +13.2% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| Mizuho | $55 | $60 | ~13 Oct 2026 | +22.1% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Barclays | $48 | — | ~7 Oct 2026 | +6.5% | Equal Weight (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| Citi | $48 | $50 | ~5 Oct 2026 | +6.5% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Bernstein | $54 | $60 | ~3 Oct 2026 | +19.8% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Wells Fargo | $48 | $50 | ~29 Sep 2026 | +6.5% | Equal Weight | ▼ Lowered |
| Oppenheimer | $65 | $85 | ~22 Sep 2026 | +44.3% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Citi | $50 | $57 | ~22 Sep 2026 | +11.0% | Neutral (downgrade) | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $45.06 close on 27 Oct 2026; at ~$41.64 each figure is about 8 points higher. Sources: Stockanalysis.com action log (dates estimated from relative timestamps, marked ~) and Investing.com (Stifel, 26 Oct). Every action since September has been a cut, a hold or a neutral initiation. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $45.06 |
| Consensus target | $57.82 |
| Median target | $54.00 |
| High target | $65.00 |
| Low target | $48.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +28.3% |
| Implied downside to low | +6.5% |
| Analysts contributing | 30 |
Consensus from Stockanalysis.com (27 Oct 2026, pre-print). Median, high and low are from the nine current targets listed above, because the full distribution was not available; the lowest recent target is still above the close.
| $48.00 |
| $57.82 |
| $54.00 |
| $65.00 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $5,061M | +8.5% | +22.8% | $0.53 | 67.7% | $1,491M | 18.6% | Beat | +4.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $5,065M | +0.1% | +20.3% | $0.51 | 69.9% | $1,371M | 20.7% | Beat | +4.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $5,286M | +4.4% | +15.9% | $0.45 | 69.6% | $1,245M | 19.7% | Beat | −17.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $5,203M | −1.6% | +11.6% | $0.90 | 69.4% | $1,576M | 20.6% | Beat | +9.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $5,442M | +4.6% | +7.5% | $0.62 | 70.7% | $1,579M | 22.9% | Beat | 0.0% |
| Q3 2026 | $5,138M | −5.6% | +1.5% | $0.40 | 66.7% | ~$1,480M | 16.1% | Beat (vendor) | ~−7.6% (intraday) |
EPS is GAAP diluted (Q1 2026 includes investment gains; Q2 2026 derived from the nine-month total). Margin is the GAAP operating margin; gross margin is GAAP, after excluding amortisation from cost of sales. Adjusted EBITDA is the vendor's normalised EBITDA; Q3 2026 is derived from adjusted operating income ($1.36B) plus estimated depreciation (~). vs Est. refers to adjusted EPS against the vendor consensus. YoY for Q2 and Q3 2025 includes the Axonics and Silk Road acquisitions.
Sales have been flat at $5.1–5.4B a quarter for six quarters, while YoY growth fell from +22.8% to +1.5%. The GAAP operating margin peaked at 22.9% in Q2 2026 and fell to 16.1% in Q3 on the outage, litigation and restructuring.
| Metric | 30 Jun 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.24 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 1.5–3.0 target · below; current debt rose in 2026 |
| Quick ratio | 0.74 | 1.08 | 0.64 | ≥1.0 · below at Jun 26 |
| Cash ratio | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.06 | Cash $539M at Jun 26; $609M at Sep 26 (company) |
Derived from reported balance sheets; the Q3 balance sheet was not in the release, so June 2026 is the latest full set. Cash fell from $1.97B in December after buybacks that cut the share count from ~1.49B to ~1.45B.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSX (Jun 26) | 1.24 | −$12.1B | Adequate; 1.9× gross leverage |
| Edwards Lifesciences (Jun 26) | 4.52 | +$2.2B | Strong |
| Stryker (Jun 26) | 2.16 | −$11.6B | Strong |
| Medtronic (Jul 26) | 2.07 | −$26.5B | Strong |
| Abbott (Mar 26) | 1.39 | −$27.2B | Adequate; debt raised for an acquisition |
| Peer median | 2.12 | −$19.0B | — |
| Metric | 30 Jun 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.49 | Lower is safer · moderate |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.27 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | ~8.6× (Q3) | 11.4× (FY25) | 9.8× (FY24) | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | n/d | n/d | n/d | >1.25 healthy · debt maturities not disclosed in the release; gross debt / adj. EBITDA 1.9× (company) |
Debt $12.6B (Jun 26), $11.4B (Dec 25), $10.7B (Dec 24), vendor. Coverage is GAAP operating income over interest expense (Q3 uses Q2's $96M interest, ~). The Penumbra acquisition, expected to close in early 2027, is not in these figures.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 66.7% | 69.1% | 69.9% | 69.0% | 68.6% | ▼ |
| Operating margin | 16.1% | 19.9% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 17.9% | ▼ |
| Net margin | 11.3% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 11.1% | ▼ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~28.8% | ~27.9% | 27.1% | 26.6% | 26.0% | → |
| Return on assets | 1.3% (q) | 7.8% | 1.8% (q) | 7.0% | 5.0% | → |
| Return on equity | 2.3% (q) | 14.0% | 3.3% (q) | 12.6% | 9.0% | → |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 16.6% × 0.47 × 1.78 | — | 14.4% × 0.48 × 1.80 | — | Margin-led |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios derived from reported figures. TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026; TTM net income ($3.5B) includes investment gains in Q1 2026. Adjusted operating margin (company) was 26.5% in Q3 against 28.0% a year ago.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwards Lifesciences | 77.8% | 28.1% | 15.4% | 35.2% | 9.7% | 1 of 5 |
| Stryker | 65.0% | 21.7% | 14.4% | 27.4% | 16.1% | 2 of 5 |
| BSX (TTM) | 69.1% | 19.9% | 16.6% | ~27.9% | 14.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Medtronic | 65.0% | 19.0% | 13.9% | 28.3% | 10.5% | 4 of 5 |
| Abbott | 56.3% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 26.1% | 12.2% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 65.0% | 20.4% | 14.2% | 27.9% | 11.4% | — |
Peer ratios are derived from the latest four quarters of vendor statements (same periods as section 08); EBITDA is vendor-normalised. Rank is by operating margin.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.47 | 0.48 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets ($44.6B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$357k | — | On ~59,000 employees (Stockanalysis.com) |
| Adj. EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | −3% | — | $0.73 against $0.75; ~$0.07 cyber impact |
| Organic sales growth (Q3) | +1.5% | +20.3% reported (Q3 25) | ~4.5% excluding the cyber impact |
| Free cash flow (Q3) | $867M | — | 16.9% of sales |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | — | No dividend; buybacks and tuck-in M&A |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medtronic | 0.41 | ~$395k | ~95,000 | +41% | ~3.0% | 1 of 5 |
| Edwards Lifesciences | 0.48 | ~$412k | ~15,800 | −27% | 0.00% | 2 of 5 |
| Stryker | 0.55 | ~$488k | ~53,000 | +44% | ~1.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Abbott | 0.48 | ~$396k | ~114,000 | n/d | ~2.4% | 4 of 5 |
| BSX | 0.47 | ~$357k | ~59,000 | −3% | 0.00% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.48 | ~$404k | ~74,000 | +41% | ~1.8% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer EPS growth is latest-quarter net income growth from vendor statements (a proxy). Peer employee counts and dividend yields are approximate (~), from the latest annual reports and dividend rates, because the vendor's profile data was unavailable. BSX EPS growth is adjusted.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiovascular sales | $3,406M | $3,343M | +1.9% | 66% of sales |
| Electrophysiology (incl. FARAPULSE) | — | — | −5% | US −8%, international +2% |
| WATCHMAN | — | — | −6% | US −7%; standalone US procedures down high teens |
| Neuromodulation sales | $331M | $293M | +13.0% | Fastest-growing division |
| Endoscopy sales | $741M | $747M | −0.6% | Organic |
| Urology sales | $661M | $682M | −3.1% | Organic |
| US sales | $3,309M | $3,294M | +0.5% | 64% of sales |
| Adjusted gross margin | 68.0% | 71.0% | −300 bps | Outage absorption and mix |
From the Q3 2026 release (28 Oct 2026, SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1); EP, WATCHMAN and adjusted margin detail from the earnings call (Investing.com transcript). Dollar sales for EP and WATCHMAN were not in the release tables reviewed.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 19.0× | GAAP TTM diluted EPS $2.37; peer median 29.8× |
| P/E TTM (adjusted) | 14.1× | Adjusted TTM EPS $3.19 |
| P/E on FY26 guidance | 14.2× | Adjusted EPS midpoint $3.17; 13.1× at ~$41.64 |
| Price / book | 2.6× | Equity $24.9B (Jun 26) |
| Price / sales TTM | 3.09× | Peer median 4.23× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~13.1× | EV ~$77.2B over ~$5.9B |
| FCF yield (Q3 annualised) | ~5.3% | $867M × 4 over market cap (derived) |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwards Lifesciences | $90.82 | $52.4B | $6.51B | 8.05× | +90% |
| Stryker | $301.42 | $115.7B | $25.84B | 4.48× | +6% |
| Abbott | $103.10 | $179.6B | $45.13B | 3.98× | −6% |
| Medtronic | $93.95 | $120.3B | $37.54B | 3.20× | −24% |
| BSX | $45.06 | $65.2B | $21.07B | 3.09× | −27% |
| Peer median | — | $118.0B | $31.69B | 4.23× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSX | $2.37 | 19.0× | +1.5% | n/m | Lowest P/S in the group; growth stalled until 2028 |
| Medtronic | $4.09 | 23.0× | +13.7% | 0.56 | Gaining in cardiac ablation |
| Abbott | $3.60 | 28.6× | ~+7.8% | n/d | Diversified; new LAAO competitor |
| Stryker | $9.71 | 31.0× | +9.4% | 0.70 | Orthopaedics and med-surg compounder |
| Edwards Lifesciences | $1.74 | 52.1× | +13.6% | n/m | Structural heart premium |
| Peer median | — | 29.8× | +11.5% | n/m | — |
Peer TTM EPS is TTM net income over vendor shares (derived). PEG uses latest-quarter net income growth; n/m where growth is negative.
Boston Scientific has gone from the most expensive name in large-cap medtech to the cheapest on sales and among the cheapest on earnings. The discount is earned by a two-year growth gap, not by weak margins: its gross and operating margins are still at or above the peer median.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 4 Sep 2025 – 27 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots 145 points, every second session. As of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 28 Oct 2026 report date. The reading predates today's ~8% move, which is likely to lift Volatility and could move the stock back into Volatile Chop.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.1304 | −0.1555 | 0.0716 | −0.3515 | −0.0987 | 50.5 | Mean-reverting; never positive in the window |
| Volatility | −0.4239 | 0.0017 | 0.2890 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 7.6 | Very subdued before the print |
Currently in Q3 Quiet Range, held 25 consecutive sessions (23 Sep – 27 Oct) after a short Volatile Chop spell in mid-September. Not borderline: Persistency is 0.13 below the axis. As of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 0.0% | Not visited in the window |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 49.8% | Feb–Mar, Apr and May–Jun 2026: the main sell-off legs |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 50.2% | Oct–Dec 2025, Jul–Aug 2026 and since 23 Sep |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 0.0% | Not visited in the window |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 10 | Each news shock: Feb results, May conference, Aug cyberattack |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 10 | Volatility subsides within weeks |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Range had a median of −5.3% (28% positive, 124 observations) and from Volatile Chop −7.6% (22%, 144). Unconditionally the median was −6.7% (25% positive), in a stock that fell ~58% over the window, so neither state has favoured holding. As of 27 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Boston Scientific has stayed on the mean-reverting side all window, alternating between quiet ranges and volatile chop as each piece of bad news arrived. These statistics describe 4 Sep 2025 – 27 Oct 2026, a window dominated by a 58% decline, and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.019 | 0.0 | 0.038 | −0.382 | 0.324 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.005 | 0.0 | −0.078 | −0.282 | 0.360 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.008 | 0.0 | 0.186 | −0.319 | 0.350 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.020 | 0.0 | −0.027 | −0.247 | 0.453 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | 0.008 | 0.0 | −0.038 | −0.394 | 0.319 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.314 | 9.9 | −0.015 | −0.683 | 0.154 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.015 | 0.0 | −0.006 | −0.541 | 0.377 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.044 | 0.2 | −0.114 | −0.529 | 0.268 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of BSX against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 29 Oct 2021 – 27 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1 explains 9.9% of variance over the full window, but its rolling reading has faded from as low as −0.68 to −0.02 now. Market Driver 1 is near zero throughout. Drivers as of 27 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00002 | 0.017 | 0.3% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.14658 | −0.314 | 99.7% |
BSX is an idiosyncratic name: its sector link has faded to almost nothing and its market link is negligible. For the next 10–30 days index or sector hedges will offset almost none of the risk; analyst revisions and competitor data will decide the month.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against BSX daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. On the latest plotted reading (23 Oct) Market Driver 1 is +0.12 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.09. As of 27 Oct 2026.
BSX daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 26 Oct 2026, 1,183 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 70), so none is marked thin. The window includes BSX's 2022–25 rally as well as its 2026 fall, so these figures reflect a very different stock from today's. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 308 | 26.0% | +34.0% | +27.1% | 22.4% | 1.21 | 51.9% | +5.80% | −6.08% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 420 | 35.5% | +9.4% | +5.5% | 27.8% | 0.20 | 51.7% | +8.61% | −9.45% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 283 | 23.9% | −10.9% | −9.8% | 28.7% | −0.34 | 52.7% | +6.01% | −19.35% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 172 | 14.5% | −18.6% | −26.1% | 30.1% | −0.87 | 54.1% | +5.97% | −13.30% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 241 | 20.4% | +17.1% | +18.0% | 22.3% | 0.81 | 50.6% | +4.70% | −6.08% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 350 | 29.6% | +3.0% | +2.2% | 27.2% | 0.08 | 52.9% | +6.01% | −19.35% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 179 | 15.1% | −2.8% | −4.0% | 30.9% | −0.13 | 57.5% | +5.97% | −13.30% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 413 | 34.9% | −9.4% | −5.8% | 27.8% | −0.21 | 50.6% | +8.61% | −9.45% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 255 | 21.6% | +34.4% | +33.9% | 17.6% | 1.92 | 52.9% | +4.70% | −4.15% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 449 | 38.0% | +3.0% | +1.6% | 29.0% | 0.06 | 52.3% | +8.61% | −9.45% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.1% | +0.9% | +1.5% | 30.7% | 0.05 | 59.4% | +5.97% | −13.30% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 336 | 28.4% | −23.9% | −18.5% | 28.6% | −0.65 | 48.8% | +6.01% | −19.35% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded BSX return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for BSX | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +34.0% | 1.21 | 2.08 | 37 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +17.1% | 0.81 | 1.02 | 37 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +34.4% | 1.92 | 2.57 | 31 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | −20.4% | −0.42 | 2.86 | 110 |
| Financials | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +9.7% | 0.27 | 0.79 | 1 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −14.3% | −0.38 | 1.40 | 86 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +1.4% | 0.04 | 2.81 | 1 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +12.6% | 0.31 | 0.86 | 1 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | −53.5% | −1.03 | 5.90 | 58 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +25.4% | 2.04 | 4.44 | 40 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +7.8% | 0.23 | 1.32 | 121 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −25.2% | −1.10 | 1.96 | 9 |
| Bonds mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −20.9% | −0.63 | 2.11 | 1 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +24.6% | 0.65 | 4.85 | 20 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning BSX is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 26 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days; where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations, and most of this history comes from BSX's growth era, which has ended. Market regime series as of 26 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 26 | Boston Scientific reports Q3: sales +1.5% to $5.138B, adjusted EPS $0.73; Q4 sales to decline 1–3% (company release) | Negative |
| 28 Oct 26 | "We believe that 2027 will be the trough in the cycle": flat sales and EPS excluding Penumbra; FARAWAVE Ultra to early 2028 (call, Investing.com) | Negative |
| 28 Oct 26 | Better-than-expected sales, but Q4 revenue guidance misses (StockStory) | Mixed |
| 28 Oct 26 | Shares fall ~8% to near the 52-week low; intraday low $39.57 (market data, Seeking Alpha) | Negative |
| 26 Oct 26 | Stifel cuts its target to $55 on the cyberattack impact; TD Cowen calls it a one-time event (Investing.com) | Mixed |
| 7 Oct 26 | Joseph Fitzgerald appointed COO; three new segments from 1 Jan 2027 (company) | Neutral |
| ~3 Oct 26 | Bernstein cuts its target to $54, citing competition from Abbott's Amulet 360 (Investing.com) | Negative |
| 21 Sep 26 | Arthur Butcher, Group President MedSurg and APAC, to retire (8-K) | Neutral |
| 8 Sep 26 | Cyberattack material; company unlikely to meet Q3 and FY26 guidance (8-K) | Negative |
| 26 Aug 26 | Stock falls on a cybersecurity incident that disrupts global operations (Motley Fool) | Negative |
| 3 Aug 26 | CEO Mike Mahoney buys $9.0M of stock at $48.33 (SEC Form 4) | Positive |
| 29 Jul 26 | Q2: organic +7%; 2026 organic guidance cut to 5–6% on WATCHMAN and EP (Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release and 8-Ks (SEC), Investing.com (transcript and analyst notes), StockStory, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool, Yahoo Finance, SEC Form 4; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "a growth slowdown" (spring) to "a growth reset to 2028" (today).
| Field | Boston Scientific Corporation | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Boston Scientific Corporation | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: BSX · IPO 1992 | All peers NYSE-listed |
| Domicile | United States (Delaware; headquarters Marlborough, Massachusetts) | Medtronic Ireland |
| Sector / industry | Healthcare · Medical devices | Medtronic and Abbott the closest in cardiology |
| Market cap | $65.2B (~1,447M shares × $45.06) | Fourth of five; Abbott $179.6B |
| Employees | ~59,000 | Stryker ~53,000 |
| TTM revenue | $21.07B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Fourth of five |
| Revenue model | Two segments: Cardiovascular (66% of Q3 sales: EP, WATCHMAN, interventional cardiology, peripheral) and MedSurg (34%: Endoscopy, Urology, Neuromodulation); three segments from 1 Jan 2027 | Peers more diversified outside cardiology |
| Key differentiators | FARAPULSE pulsed field ablation and WATCHMAN left atrial appendage closure; Penumbra (thrombectomy) pending; restructuring targets ~$500M of run-rate savings by 2029 | Medtronic and Abbott compete in PFA and LAAO |
| CIK | 0000885725 | — |
| Website | bostonscientific.com | — |
Boston Scientific's third quarter showed a business that has stopped growing: sales +1.5%, with electrophysiology −5% and WATCHMAN −6%. Q4 sales are guided to fall, and management now calls 2027 the trough, with growth not returning until 2028. The cyberattack explains part of 2026 but not the share loss. The stock already reflects much of this: down 53% this year, ~14× adjusted earnings against peers near 30×, and the CEO bought $9.0M of stock at $48 in August. It is a company-specific name in a mean-reverting state, with no scheduled catalyst of its own before February. The view turns bullish if estimate cuts are absorbed and BSX closes above $48.33, the CEO's purchase price. It turns bearish if competitor data at AHA or from Medtronic deepen the share-loss story and the stock breaks today's $39.57 low.