ADR close 13 Oct 2026
$1,717.76
Q3 2026 sales hit a record €11.7B (+55% YoY) at a record 57.5% gross margin, and Q4 guidance of €14.2–15.2B implies the biggest quarter in the company's history. Management said planned capacity for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, with some customers already asking about 2029–2030 orders. The Amsterdam line opened +2.2% and faded to +0.7%; the ADR was flat pre-market at ~$1,716 after falling 8% in seven sessions. Over the next 10–30 days ASML trades as a semiconductor-sector name (correlation 0.83 with the sector fund, beta 2.2 to the S&P 500), so the late-October chip-equipment and memory prints decide whether the re-rating starts.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | ADR closed at $1,717.76 on 13 Oct, −8.0% from $1,867.31 on 2 Oct and −13.7% from the $1,989.44 high of 30 Jun, but +60.6% YTD. On the release Amsterdam opened +2.2% and faded to +0.7% (€1,520.60); the ADR was flat pre-market (~$1,716). | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Q3 sales €11.66B, +55% YoY and +25% QoQ, slightly above the ~$13.16B (≈€11.6B) consensus. 113 new and 8 used systems. FY26 guide narrowed up to €44–45B (+36%), with Q4 at €14.2–15.2B; about 65 EUV systems to ship this year (+50%). | Bullish |
| Profitability | Gross margin a record 57.5% (guide 55–57%), from 54.0% in Q2. Net income €4.96B, including a ~€0.5B revaluation gain on the Mistral AI stake. FY26 gross margin ~56%, up from 51–53% at the start of the year. Q4 guide ~57%. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 29.2× forward earnings against a 26.5× peer median; P/S 14.7× in line with the 14.8× median; EV/EBITDA ~36× against ~40×. A premium to Applied Materials (25.1× forward), in line with KLA and Lam. | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | Installed Base Management €3.29B, €0.4B above guide and +19% QoQ; Q4 guide €3.7B. Capacity +30% in 2027 and +30% in 2028 still "will not allow us to meet our customer demand". Value-based pricing agreed, with impact from 2027. China ~20% of 2026 sales (~30% in 2025). | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Cash and short-term investments €12.7B at Q3 (from €7.6B), against ~€2.0B of debt (June). Debt-to-equity 0.09. ~€4.1B of buybacks in Q3; interim dividend €1.88 payable 4 Nov. | Bullish |
| Regime state | Q2 Volatile Chop: Persistency −0.244 (the lowest in the window), Volatility +0.232 (73rd percentile), held 9 sessions since 1 Oct. Not on a boundary. As of 13 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 70.0% idiosyncratic; Sector Driver 1 explains 30% of variance (correlation −0.548). One-year correlation 0.83 with the semiconductor fund, 0.85 with Lam; beta 2.21 to the S&P 500. The sector decides the month. As of 13 Oct 2026. | Bearish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | A sector-wide semiconductor drawdown: with a 2.2 market beta, a 5% index pullback maps to ~11% for ASML. A softer capex message from Lam, KLA, Samsung or SK hynix in late October, or new US/Dutch export-control headlines on China, would override the company news. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Post-print target resets (14–16 Oct, just before). Lam Research and KLA results (~late Oct), Samsung and SK hynix Q3 (~late Oct), Intel Q3 (~late Oct), FOMC 27–28 Oct, interim dividend payment 4 Nov, all expected. ASML's next report (~late Jan) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Bullish. Demand outruns supply. The quarter set records for sales and margin, Q4 guidance implies a further step up, and management sees demand above capacity through 2028. The stock arrives 8% off its early-October high, and 12 of 14 market groups sit in regimes where ASML has had a positive Sharpe. The risk is the sector, not the company. Composite 7.8 / 10. Bullish | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (24 Oct – 13 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. Company figures are in euros; ADR prices and peer figures in US dollars (€1 ≈ $1.138, from the 13 Oct ADR / Amsterdam closes). The Q3 release came before the 14 Oct US open.
ASML's quarter answered the question the market has asked all year: AI-driven demand for lithography is still rising, and ASML cannot build tools fast enough to meet it before 2029. The muted reaction reflects a stock that had already doubled from its lows. Inside the month, the semiconductor tape — not ASML's own numbers — decides whether the re-rating begins.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (7.5). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.38 + 1.30 + 1.62 + 0.84 + 0.75 + 0.70 + 0.25 = 7.8 (7.84).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor drawdown | Technical | Beta 2.21; 0.83 sector correlation | Yes |
| Peer capex guidance | Competitive | Lam, KLA, memory makers in late Oct | Yes |
| Export controls | Macro | China ~20% of sales; servicing restrictions | Possible |
| Rates / FOMC | Macro | Bond regimes in ASML's worst state | Possible |
| Mean-reverting tape | Technical | Persistency at a one-year low | Possible |
| Capacity execution | Financial | +30% / +30% ramp in 2027–28 | Structural |
| Customer concentration | Competitive | Few EUV buyers | Structural |
| AI capex cycle | Macro | Multi-year spending dependence | Structural |
Nothing in ASML's own business is at risk inside a month: the order book is full and the balance sheet holds net cash. What can hurt it is the group it trades with — a semiconductor sell-off, a peer capex cut or an export-control headline.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | 14 Oct 2026 | €11,662M | +0.4% | €12.95 | +20.8% | Pre-mkt ~−0.1% (AMS +0.7%) |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | 14 Jul 2026 | €9,327M | n/a | €7.58 | +9.1% | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | 15 Apr 2026 | €8,767M | n/a | €7.15 | +8.0% | −2.4% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | 28 Jan 2026 | €9,718M | n/a | €7.34 | −2.7% | −2.2% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | 15 Oct 2025 | €7,516M | n/a | €5.48 | +2.1% | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | 16 Jul 2025 | €7,692M | n/a | €5.90 | +12.4% | −8.3% |
ASML reports at 07:00 CET, before the US open; the reaction is the ADR's same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing; the ADR traded ~$1,716 pre-market at 07:18 ET and Amsterdam was +0.7%. EPS surprises are the vendor's USD-converted figures; Q3 includes the ~€0.5B Mistral revaluation gain (~€1.30 a share). Revenue consensus confirmed only for Q3 2026 ($13.16B). 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +0.1%, +1.0%, +1.9%, +6.9%, +1.9%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | n/c | 88% (7/8) | FY26 sales narrowed up; GM raised |
| ASML (since 2021) | — | 92% (22/24) | Misses Jul 2021, Jan 2026 |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 100% | AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TER all 8/8 |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | ~late Jan 2027 | Outside the 10–30 day window |
| Q4 2026 net sales | €14.2–15.2B | Midpoint €14.7B, +51% YoY; installed base ~€3.7B |
| Q4 2026 gross margin | ~57% | In line with Q3's record |
| Q4 R&D / SG&A | ~€1.2B / ~€0.4B | Opex roughly flat QoQ |
| FY26 net sales | €44–45B | From €43–45B; +36% at the midpoint on €32.67B |
| FY26 gross margin | ~56% | From 54–56% (51–53% in January) |
| 2027–2028 | Capacity +30% / +30% | "Will not fully meet customer demand"; no revenue guide |
| Interim dividend | €1.88 | Payable 4 Nov 2026 (inside the window) |
The next ASML report is not in the window. The Q4 guide alone lifts the full-year run-rate, so estimates move up rather than down. The month's direction comes from peers' 2027 capex messages, which test management's claim that demand exceeds supply.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 (post-Q2) | JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, RBC | Bullish | Targets raised to 2,400, 2,500 and 2,100 on 16 Jul |
| Jul 2026 | Bernstein | Bullish | Outperform, target raised to 2,623 from 1,971 |
| Jun 2026 | BofA, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan | Bullish | Buy / Overweight; targets lifted to 2,200–2,345 |
| Jan 2026 | Barclays, KGI | Bullish | Barclays upgraded to Overweight; KGI to Outperform |
| Oct 2026 release | Management (CEO Christophe Fouquet) | Bullish | "Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us" |
| Consensus | 16 analysts (ADR) | Bullish | Strong Buy; mean target $2,110.76, median $2,193.65, range $866–2,897 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and ADR consensus, company release, retrieved 14 Oct 2026. Individual targets are shown as listed in the rating log, which does not state the currency; ASML targets are commonly published in euros for the Amsterdam line. Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | Company (2026–2028 buyback) | Repurchase | n/d | n/d | ~€4.1B | Strongest signal; ~0.7% of market cap in one quarter |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Company | Interim dividend | — | €1.88 / share | ~€0.7B | Payable inside the window |
| Q3 2026 | Company | Mistral AI investment | — | — | ~€0.5B gain | Revaluation of first tranche; non-operating |
| 2026 YTD | Management and Supervisory Board | Dealings (AFM register) | n/c | n/c | n/c | Not compiled; no SEC Form 4 filings |
ASML is a Dutch foreign private issuer, so its managers do not file SEC Form 4; their dealings are reported to the Dutch AFM, which was not compiled for this report. The table therefore shows company-level capital actions from the Q3 release. The dividend value is derived from ~381M shares outstanding.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Jan 2027 | ASML (expected) | Q4 2026 results and first 2027 outlook | No |
| ~mid Nov 2026 | Applied Materials (expected) | Fiscal Q4 results; WFE outlook | Just after |
| 4 Nov 2026 | ASML | Interim dividend €1.88 paid | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; bond regimes are ASML's weakest current channel | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Samsung, SK hynix, Intel (expected) | Q3 results and 2027 capex plans; memory and foundry demand | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Lam Research, KLA (expected) | Quarterly results; closest-correlated peers (0.85, 0.81) | Yes |
| Open-ended | US / Dutch governments | Export-control updates on China lithography and servicing | Possible |
| ~15–16 Oct 2026 | TSMC (expected) | Q3 results and 2027 capex signal; ASML's largest customer | Just before |
| 14 Oct 2026 | ASML release | Record Q3 (€11.66B, 57.5% GM); Q4 guide €14.2–15.2B; demand above 2027–28 capacity | No, sets the base |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Market | ADR peaks at $1,867.31 before an 8% slide into the print | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 14 Oct 2026 report date (24 Oct – 13 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Late Oct: Lam Research and KLA, the peers ASML trades closest with, on 2027 WFE. Late Oct: Samsung, SK hynix and Intel on memory and foundry capex. 27–28 Oct: FOMC, through the bond regimes that are ASML's weakest. 4 Nov: interim dividend paid. Any time: export-control headlines.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | $1,717.76 | $659.8B | ~$44.9B | 14.7× | +55.2% | Strong Buy · $2,110.76 | Positive |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | $301.11 | $376.8B | $23.23B | 16.22× | +30.0% | Strong Buy · $375.81 | Positive |
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | $464.24 | $368.4B | $30.84B | 11.95× | +24.8% | Strong Buy · $635.33 | Positive |
| KLA (KLAC) | $184.00 | $240.1B | $13.58B | 17.68× | +15.2% | Buy · $232.77 | Positive |
| Teradyne (TER) | $380.29 | $59.5B | $4.46B | 13.32× | +103.9% | Buy · $446.47 | Positive |
| Peer median | — | $304.3B | $18.41B | 14.77× | +27.4% | — | — |
ADR and peer prices at the 13 Oct 2026 close. ASML revenue is TTM to Q3 2026 in euros (€39.47B) converted at ~$1.138; market cap is the vendor ADR figure. Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun–Jul 2026. ASML and every peer are 14–39% below their 30 Jun highs after the same sector pullback. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | 2,500 | 2,200 | 16 Jul 2026 | +45.5% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan | 2,400 | 2,200 | 16 Jul 2026 | +39.7% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| RBC Capital | 2,100 | 2,000 | 16 Jul 2026 | +22.3% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| RBC Capital | 2,000 | 1,700 | 14 Jul 2026 | +16.4% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| Bernstein | 2,623 | 1,971 | 6 Jul 2026 | +52.7% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| BofA Securities | 2,345 | 2,268 | 22 Jun 2026 | +36.5% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Wells Fargo | 2,200 | 1,750 | 22 Jun 2026 | +28.1% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan | 2,200 | 1,813 | 3 Jun 2026 | +28.1% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
Source: Yahoo Finance rating log; currency not stated. Implied return is measured against the $1,717.76 ADR close on 13 Oct 2026, treating targets as USD. If a target is in euros, its implied return against the €1,509.60 Amsterdam close is about 14% higher. All 16 recorded actions in 2026 were raises or upgrades. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close (ADR) | $1,717.76 |
| Consensus target | $2,110.76 |
| Median target | $2,193.65 |
| High target | $2,897.38 |
| Low target | $866.24 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +22.9% |
| Implied downside to low | −49.6% |
| Analysts contributing | 16 |
Yahoo Finance ADR consensus (USD-converted), 14 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. The $866 low is an outlier; the next-lowest recent target in the log is $1,700.
| $866 |
| $2,111 |
| $2,194 |
| $2,897 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | €7,692M | −0.6% | ~+23.2% | €5.90 | 53.7% | €2,919Me | 38.0% | Beat | −8.3% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | €7,516M | −2.3% | ~+0.7% | €5.48 | 51.6% | €2,743Me | 36.5% | Beat | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | €9,718M | +29.3% | ~+4.9% | €7.34 | 52.2% | €3,686Me | 37.9% | Miss (EPS) | −2.2% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | €8,767M | −9.8% | ~+13.2% | €7.15 | 53.0% | €3,158Me | 36.0% | Beat | −2.4% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | €9,327M | +6.4% | +21.3% | €7.58 | 54.0% | €3,456Me | 37.1% | Beat | +2.9% |
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | €11,662M | +25.0% | +55.2% | €12.95 | 57.5% | ~€5,330Me | ~45.7% | Beat | Pending |
| Q4 2026 guide | €14,700M | +26.1% | +51.3% | — | ~57% | — | — | Midpoint | — |
Figures in euros. Reports come before the US open, so the reaction is the ADR's same-day move. Q3 2026 EPS is basic and includes the ~€0.5B Mistral revaluation gain. Adj. EBITDA marked e is vendor EBITDA; Q3 2026 is estimated as gross profit less ~€1.26B R&D and ~€0.36B SG&A, plus ~€0.25B D&A (derived). YoY marked "~" uses prior-year quarters from earlier releases.
Operating margin is vendor operating income over sales for Q2 2025 – Q2 2026 and an estimate for Q3 2026 (~43.6%, derived as above). Revenue has stepped up from a €7.5–9.7B range to €11.7B, with €14.7B guided for Q4.
| Metric | 28 Jun 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.33 | 1.26 | 1.53 | 1.5–3.0 healthy · below; customer prepayments sit in current liabilities |
| Quick ratio | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.99 | ≥1.0 healthy · below; inventory €11.7B |
| Cash ratio | 0.34 | 0.55 | 0.64 | Cash rose to €12.7B at Q3 (from €7.6B at Q2) |
Vendor quarterly and annual balance sheets in euros; the Q3 2026 balance sheet was not in the summary release. ASML's current liabilities include large customer down payments, which depress the ratios relative to US peers.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML (Q3 26 cash; Jun 26 debt) | 1.33 | +€10.7B (~$12.2B) | Strong |
| Lam Research (Jun 26) | 2.63 | +$1.46B | Strong |
| Applied Materials (Jul 26) | 2.42 | +$1.89B | Strong |
| KLA (Jun 26) | 2.88 | −$1.25B | Strong |
| Teradyne (Jun 26) | 2.13 | +$0.25B | Strong |
| Peer median | 2.53 | +$0.86B | — |
| Metric | 28 Jun 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.25 | Lower is safer · minimal |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.10 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | n/d (TTM) | 95.8× | 55.4× | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | n/d | 7.0× | n/d | >1.25 healthy · passed; OCF over interest plus current debt |
Debt €2.0B (Jun 26), €4.4B (Dec 25), €4.7B (Dec 24). Coverage is operating income over interest expense (FY25 €0.12B). FY25 operating cash flow of €12.66B is FCF (€11.03B) plus capex (€1.63B), against €1.80B of interest and current debt.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 57.5% | 54.3% | 51.6% | 52.8% | 51.3% | ▲ |
| Operating margin | ~43.6%e | ~38.3%e | 32.8% | 34.6% | 31.9% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 42.5% | 34.1% | 28.3% | 29.4% | 26.8% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~45.7%e | ~39.6%e | 36.5% | 38.4% | 35.8% | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 9.9% (q) | 28.3% | 4.7% (q) | 19.4% | 17.1% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 22.7% (q) | 66.0% | 11.2% (q) | 50.5% | 47.4% | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 34.1% × 0.83 × 2.33 | — | 29.4% × 0.66 × 2.60 | — | Margin and turnover both up |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. Q3 2026 net margin includes the ~€0.5B Mistral gain (~38% without it). Q3 2026 ROA and ROE use June 2026 assets and equity. Operating and EBITDA margins marked e are derived estimates (see 9.A).
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML (TTM) | 54.3% | ~38.3% | 34.1% | ~39.6% | 66.0% | 2 of 5 |
| KLA | 61.3% | 42.5% | 35.6% | 44.6% | 87.5% | 1 of 5 |
| Lam Research | 50.5% | 37.4% | 31.3% | 37.2% | 65.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Applied Materials | 49.4% | 33.7% | 30.1% | 32.9% | 41.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Teradyne | 59.2% | 33.2% | 25.8% | 33.7% | 36.5% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 54.9% | 35.6% | 30.7% | 35.5% | 53.1% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures. Rank is by operating margin. ASML's Q3 2026 margins (57.5% gross, ~44% operating) would rank first in gross-to-operating conversion.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.83 | 0.66 (FY25) | Sales growing faster than assets |
| Revenue per employee | ~€898k (~$1.02M) | ~€743k (FY25) | On ~43,900 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | +136% | — | ~+113% excluding the Mistral gain |
| Sales growth (FY26 guide) | +36% | +16% (FY25) | €44–45B on €32.67B |
| Dividend yield | 0.53% | — | Interim €1.88; buybacks the main return |
| FCF yield | ~1.9% (FY25) | ~1.6% (FY24) | FY25 FCF €11.03B on the current market cap; quarterly FCF swings with prepayments |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 0.83 | $1.02M | ~43,900 | +136% | 0.53% | 2 of 5 |
| Lam Research | 0.99 | $997k | 23,300 | +32% | 0.44% | 3 of 5 |
| Applied Materials | 0.71 | $793k | 38,900 | +43% | 0.46% | 4 of 5 |
| KLA | 0.76 | $799k | 17,000 | +13% | 0.50% | 5 of 5 |
| Teradyne | 0.91 | $676k | 6,600 | +378% | 0.14% | 1 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.84 | $796k | 20,150 | +38% | 0.45% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure. ASML figures converted at ~$1.138 per euro.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | QoQ | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total net sales | €11,662M | €9,326M | +25.0% | +55.2% YoY |
| Installed Base Management | €3,289M | €2,762M | +19.1% | €0.4B above guide; ~+50% for 2026 |
| System sales (derived) | ~€8,373M | ~€6,564M | +27.6% | Net sales less installed base |
| Lithography systems sold | 113 new / 8 used | 86 new / 5 used | +31% (new) | ~65 EUV systems to ship in 2026 (+50%) |
| Gross margin | 57.5% | 54.0% | +350 bps | Upgrades, productivity services, mix |
| Net income | €4,960M | €2,918M | +70% | Includes ~€0.5B Mistral revaluation |
| Cash and short-term investments | €12,735M | €7,582M | +68% | After ~€4.1B of buybacks |
| China share of 2026 sales | ~20% | — | — | ~30% in 2025; China business still +~20% in 2026 |
Compared with Q2 2026 because the release reports sequential figures. Net bookings are no longer disclosed. System sales are derived.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 43.1× | ~44.7× excluding the Mistral gain; peer median 51.3× |
| P/E forward (vendor) | 29.2× | Peer forward median 26.5× |
| Price / book | 26.6× | Equity €21.8B (Jun 26) |
| Price / sales TTM | 14.7× | Peer median 14.77× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~36× | EV ~$647.6B on ~€15.6B (~$17.8B) estimated EBITDA; peers 39.7× |
| PEG | 1.58 | Vendor; peer median 1.14 |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | ~1.9% / 0.53% | Buybacks (€4.1B in Q3) dominate returns |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | $1,717.76 | $659.8B | ~$44.9B | 14.7× | −0% |
| Lam Research | $301.11 | $376.8B | $23.23B | 16.22× | +10% |
| Applied Materials | $464.24 | $368.4B | $30.84B | 11.95× | −19% |
| KLA | $184.00 | $240.1B | $13.58B | 17.68× | +20% |
| Teradyne | $380.29 | $59.5B | $4.46B | 13.32× | −10% |
| Peer median | — | $304.3B | $18.41B | 14.77× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ~$39.85 | 43.1× | +55.2% | 1.58 | In line with peers despite faster growth |
| Lam Research | $5.76 | 52.3× | +30.0% | 1.45 | Memory-led; richest TTM multiple |
| Applied Materials | $11.59 | 40.1× | +24.8% | 0.83 | Cheapest on forward and PEG |
| KLA | $3.66 | 50.3× | +15.2% | 1.80 | Margin leader; slowest growth |
| Teradyne | $7.28 | 52.2× | +103.9% | 0.73 | AI test boom |
| Peer median | — | 51.3× | +27.4% | 1.14 | — |
ASML trades in line with the equipment group on sales and below it on trailing earnings, while growing twice as fast this quarter and holding a monopoly in EUV. Valuation is not the constraint for the month; the sector's direction is.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 20 Aug 2025 – 13 Oct 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 14 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.2439 | −0.0719 | 0.0994 | −0.2439 | 0.0250 | 0.0 | Mean-reverting. Negative since April and falling; the current value is the window minimum |
| Volatility | 0.2322 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4952 | 0.5000 | 72.7 | Elevated. Jumped from −0.007 on 30 Sep as the stock topped and slid into the print |
Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 9 consecutive sessions (since 1 Oct). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the quadrant call is not provisional. As of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 14.9% | Sep–Oct 2025 and Jan–Feb 2026 breakouts |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 35.3% | Most of Apr–Oct 2026, through the June peak |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 14.9% | Short pauses between chop phases |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 34.9% | The late-2025 grind higher |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 7 | Volatility returns without direction |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 6 | Brief calm, then chop again |
| Quiet drift ↔ Quiet range | 5 | Mar–Apr 2026, as Persistency crossed zero |
| Quiet drift ↔ Volatile trend | 4 | The 2025 – early 2026 trend phases |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Drift had a median of +9.0% (80% positive, 101 observations), from Quiet Range +5.7% (81%), from Volatile Trend +4.2% (72%) and from Volatile Chop +1.6% (58%, 88 observations). Unconditionally the median was +6.3% (72% positive), in a stock that rose 84% over the year. Volatile Chop has been the least rewarding state, though still positive. As of 13 Oct 2026.
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Negative Persistency means recent moves have tended to reverse. For the next 10–30 days that argues against chasing a post-print spike, and for expecting retracements of the 8% pre-print slide. These statistics describe 20 Aug 2025 – 13 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.006 | 0.0 | −0.091 | −0.347 | 0.460 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.011 | 0.0 | −0.115 | −0.363 | 0.349 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.041 | 0.2 | 0.300 | −0.568 | 0.428 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.006 | 0.0 | −0.041 | −0.368 | 0.397 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.011 | 0.0 | −0.019 | −0.280 | 0.292 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.548 | 30.0 | −0.311 | −0.809 | −0.296 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.022 | 0.0 | 0.386 | −0.642 | 0.604 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.066 | 0.4 | 0.063 | −0.461 | 0.454 | Variable | Negative |
Methodology: daily log returns of ASML against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 15 Oct 2021 – 13 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's rolling correlation has stayed between −0.81 and −0.30 and never turned positive; the current −0.311 is near the weak end. Market drivers explain almost nothing. Drivers as of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00000 | 0.002 | <0.1% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.41189 | −0.548 | >99.9% |
ASML is a sector proxy. Sector Driver 1 carries all of its systematic exposure, and over the past year it has moved with the semiconductor fund (0.83) and Lam Research (0.85) far more than with the index. For the next 10–30 days the semiconductor group decides the month; a strong ASML print cannot outrun a falling sector.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against ASML daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 has stayed firmly negative (about −0.3 to −0.8) throughout; Market Driver 1 oscillates around zero and is about −0.09 on the latest reading. As of 13 Oct 2026.
ASML daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 12 Oct 2026, 1,168 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.5% | +54.2% | +90.0% | 39.0% | 2.31 | 55.9% | +9.10% | −8.70% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 300 | 25.6% | +25.7% | +21.2% | 40.6% | 0.52 | 53.3% | +9.09% | −13.63% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 286 | 24.4% | +14.1% | +12.3% | 44.0% | 0.28 | 48.6% | +8.52% | −17.75% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 417 | 35.5% | +21.8% | +12.7% | 47.5% | 0.27 | 51.3% | +14.35% | −7.64% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 233 | 19.9% | +94.1% | +104.9% | 37.7% | 2.78 | 56.2% | +8.48% | −7.53% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 177 | 15.1% | +25.7% | +38.5% | 42.1% | 0.91 | 52.0% | +9.10% | −8.14% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 353 | 30.1% | +8.0% | +5.7% | 43.7% | 0.13 | 48.7% | +8.52% | −17.75% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 410 | 35.0% | +2.2% | +1.3% | 47.5% | 0.03 | 52.0% | +14.35% | −8.70% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.2% | +52.1% | +109.4% | 39.4% | 2.78 | 53.1% | +9.10% | −6.81% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 245 | 20.9% | +33.7% | +34.9% | 38.5% | 0.90 | 51.8% | +9.09% | −13.63% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 341 | 29.1% | +15.3% | +11.1% | 43.7% | 0.25 | 50.4% | +8.52% | −17.75% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 444 | 37.9% | +14.8% | +8.2% | 47.6% | 0.17 | 52.5% | +14.35% | −8.70% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded ASML return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for ASML | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +25.7% | 0.52 | 2.04 | 27 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +94.1% | 2.78 | 2.75 | 27 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +33.7% | 0.90 | 2.61 | 21 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +134.8% | 1.53 | 4.91 | 100 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +15.0% | 0.71 | 2.22 | 15 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +7.6% | 0.13 | 1.77 | 76 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +64.1% | 1.95 | 1.75 | 21 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +79.0% | 2.07 | 2.52 | 20 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +85.0% | 0.89 | 2.47 | 48 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +55.9% | 3.15 | 2.93 | 30 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +30.7% | 0.56 | 0.31 | 111 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −3.6% | −0.16 | 2.85 | 15 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −11.5% | −0.16 | 1.51 | 17 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +27.6% | 0.39 | 2.61 | 10 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning ASML is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 12 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. ASML rose strongly over much of this window, which lifts most Sharpe ratios; compare buckets, not absolute levels. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 26 | ASML reports €11.7B total net sales and €5.0B net income in Q3 2026 (company release, GlobeNewswire) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | ASML posts record Q3 and signals capacity strain amid surging AI demand (TipRanks) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | Record €11.7B sales, 57.5% margin as demand outpaces capacity through 2028 (BigGo call summary) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | ASML tops Q3 estimates but shares fall (Investing.com transcript) | Mixed |
| 14 Oct 26 | Full-year guidance raised again on AI chip demand (TradingKey) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | Value-based pricing agreed with key customers; benefit from 2027 (call) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | China ~20% of 2026 sales, down from ~30% in 2025 (call) | Mixed |
| 13 Oct 26 | ADR closes −1.9% at $1,717.76, an 8% slide from 2 Oct into the print | Negative |
| Oct 26 | Previews frame Q3 as "the order book test for the AI rally" (Tickeron) | Neutral |
| 30 Jun 26 | ADR peaks at $1,989.44 with the semiconductor group; the sector fund then falls ~17% and peers 21–39% | Negative |
| 14–16 Jul 26 | Q2 beat; JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and RBC raise targets to 2,100–2,500 | Positive |
| Jul 26 | ASML announces +30% capacity for 2027 low-NA EUV and DUV immersion (Q2 release) | Positive |
12 rows, newest first. Sources as listed; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "2026 could be a pause year" (late 2025) to "demand exceeds capacity into 2028" (Q2–Q3 2026). The muted reaction says the market already holds the second view.
| Field | ASML Holding N.V. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | ASML Holding N.V. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | Euronext Amsterdam: ASML; NASDAQ: ASML (New York registry shares) · IPO 1995 | Peers NASDAQ-listed |
| Domicile | Netherlands (Veldhoven) | Peers US-based |
| Sector / industry | Information Technology · Semiconductor equipment (lithography) | Lam (etch/deposition), Applied (broad), KLA (process control), Teradyne (test) |
| Market cap | $659.8B (vendor, ADR basis) | Largest in the set; 1.8× Lam |
| Employees | ~43,900 | Applied 38,900; Lam 23,300 |
| TTM revenue | €39.47B (~$44.9B), Q4 2025 – Q3 2026 | Largest in the set; 1.5× Applied |
| Revenue model | Systems (EUV, High-NA EUV, DUV immersion and dry, metrology) ~72% of Q3; Installed Base Management (service, upgrades) ~28% | Peers sell process tools and services |
| Key differentiators | Sole supplier of EUV and High-NA EUV; capacity-constrained demand to 2028; value-based pricing from 2027 | No direct competitor in EUV |
| CIK | 0000937966 | — |
| Website | asml.com | — |
The 14 October print set records for sales (€11.7B, +55%) and gross margin (57.5%), guided Q4 to €14.2–15.2B and said planned capacity will not meet demand in 2027 or 2028. The reaction was muted after a 60% YTD gain, but the stock arrives 8% below its early-October high, trades in line with the equipment group on sales, and 12 of 14 market groups sit in regimes where it has done well. The risk is the sector it trades with, not the company. The view holds while Lam, KLA and the memory makers confirm 2027 capex and the ADR stays above $1,600. It turns mixed if peers trim 2027 plans or export-control headlines hit, and bearish on a break below $1,600.