Close 7 Oct 2026
$123.73
Q3 2026 beat: revenue $25.27B against $24.96B expected, core EPS $2.34 against $2.30, organic growth up to 3.1%. But full-year core constant-currency EPS growth was cut to +1–2% from at least +4%, North American foods profit fell 13%, and a 4-point tariff refund flattered the quarter. The stock closed at a 52-week low of $123.73 (−27% from February) after nine target cuts in two weeks, and traded only ~0.4% higher before the open. Over the next 10–30 days PEP is cheap (14.8× this year's guide, 4.8% yield) but trades in a market regime map that has rarely favoured it; Coca-Cola and the late-October snack prints decide whether the reset holds.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at a 52-week low of $123.73 on 7 Oct, −10.6% in 30 sessions, −13.8% YTD and −27.4% from the $170.49 high of 6 Feb. Traded about +1% early pre-market on the release, fading to ~+0.4% ($124.27) by 08:56 ET. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Q3 net revenue $25.27B, +5.6% reported and +3.1% organic (accelerating), against $24.96B consensus. Volume +1% in convenient foods, +3% in beverages. FY26 organic guide narrowed to ~+3%; net revenue raised to ~+6% on FX and acquisitions. | Mixed |
| Profitability | Core operating margin 16.9%, −35 bps, even with a ~4-point tariff-refund benefit to core operating profit. PFNA operating profit −13% on flat revenue. FY26 core constant-currency EPS guide cut to +1–2% from the low end of +4–6%. | Bearish |
| Valuation vs peers | 14.8× the ~$8.38 FY26 core EPS guide midpoint, near a five-year low. EV/EBITDA ~10.9× against a 16.5× peer median; P/S 1.72× against 1.99×. Dividend yield 4.78%, above every peer except General Mills. | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | International carried the quarter: EMEA organic +9%, Asia Pacific Foods +9%, LatAm +6%, International Beverages +7%. North America flat: PFNA and PBNA organic 0%. YTD free cash flow ~$5.86B against ~$3.24B (calculated). | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Debt $51.9B against $11.2B of cash and short-term investments (net debt $40.7B). Current ratio 0.94, debt-to-equity 2.31. Interest coverage ~12× (FY25). $8.9B of 2026 cash returns maintained ($7.9B dividends, $1.0B buybacks). | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend: Persistency +0.067, Volatility +0.371 (87th percentile), held 12 sessions since 22 Sep. Not on a boundary. As of 7 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 97.3% idiosyncratic on the drivers. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is −0.12 (beta −0.20); with the consumer-staples fund 0.70 (beta 1.01); with Coca-Cola 0.56. PEP trades with the staples basket and against the tape. As of 7 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Estimate cuts follow the guide cut: FY26 consensus was $8.55 before the release against a ~$8.34–8.43 guide range, and 2027 (~$8.91) is now at risk. A weak Coca-Cola, Mondelēz or Kraft Heinz read on US snack and beverage volumes would extend the slide below $124. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Post-print target resets (8–10 Oct, just before). Coca-Cola Q3 (~21 Oct), Keurig Dr Pepper and Mondelēz Q3 (late Oct), FOMC 27–28 Oct, all expected. The 10-Q (~mid Oct) carries segment detail. PEP's next report (~early Feb) and next ex-dividend date (~early Dec) are outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. The reset is priced; no catalyst yet. The quarter beat, the stock is at its cheapest in five years and it diversifies against the index. But the profit guide was cut, North America is still shrinking in profit, and 9 of 14 market groups sit in PEP's worst regime. Composite 6.2 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (18 Oct – 7 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 7 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 6 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The Q3 release came before the 8 Oct open; the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data.
The quarter was better than feared at the top line and worse at the bottom line. The market had already paid for the guidance cut through a 10.6% fall and nine target cuts in September. What it has not seen is evidence that North American snacks have stopped losing profit, and nothing inside the window from PepsiCo itself will provide it.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (5.75). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.38 + 1.70 + 1.17 + 0.60 + 0.58 + 0.35 + 0.45 = 6.2 (6.22).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate / target resets | Financial | Consensus $8.55 vs ~$8.38 guide midpoint | Yes |
| Peer print read-across | Competitive | KO, KDP, MDLZ in late Oct; staples beta 1.01 | Yes |
| Adverse regime map | Technical | 9/14 groups in PEP's worst regime | Yes |
| Risk-on rotation / FOMC | Macro | −0.12 correlation with a record-high index | Possible |
| Chip price increases | Competitive | Retailer pushback; share loss | Possible |
| GLP-1 adoption | Structural | Lower snack and soda consumption | Structural |
| Private label | Competitive | Trade-down by price-sensitive shoppers | Structural |
| SNAP restrictions | Macro | State-level purchase limits | Structural |
The balance sheet and the dividend are not at risk inside a month. The live risks are all about expectations: how far estimates and targets fall after the cut, and what the other staples companies say about US consumers in late October.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | 8 Oct 2026 | $25,274M | +1.3% | $2.23 (core $2.34) | +1.7% | Pre-mkt ~+0.4% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | 9 Jul 2026 | $24,181M | n/a | $2.18 (core $2.20) | −0.4% | −3.3% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | 16 Apr 2026 | $19,443M | n/a | $1.70 (core $1.61) | +3.8% | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | 3 Feb 2026 | $29,343M | n/a | $1.85 (core $2.26) | +1.0% | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | 9 Oct 2025 | $23,937M | n/a | $1.90 (core $2.29) | +1.3% | +4.2% |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | 17 Jul 2025 | $22,726M | n/a | $0.92 (core $2.12) | +4.5% | +7.5% |
All reports come before the open; the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing; the pre-market indication was ~$124.27 at 08:56 ET. EPS surprise is on core EPS against consensus. Revenue consensus was confirmed only for Q3 2026 (n/a otherwise). Q4 is a 16-week quarter and Q1 a 12-week quarter. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +3.4%, −1.2%, −1.3%, −5.8%, +0.8%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | n/c | 75% (6/8) | FY26 core EPS cut |
| PEP (since 2021) | — | 92% (22/24) | Misses in Apr 2025 and Jul 2026 |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 88% | KO 8/8; MDLZ 7/8; GIS 7/8; KDP 5/8 |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | ~early Feb 2027 | Outside the 10–30 day window |
| Organic revenue (FY26) | ~+3% | Narrowed from +2–4% |
| Net revenue (FY26) | ~+6% | Raised from +4–6%; FX ~+1.5 pts |
| Core constant-currency EPS | +1% to +2% | Cut from the low end of +4–6% |
| Core EPS | +2.5% to +3.5% | ~$8.34–8.43; consensus $8.55 before |
| Core tax rate | ~21% | Lowered from ~22% |
| Cash returns | $8.9B | $7.9B dividends + $1.0B buybacks |
| Capex / FCF conversion | <5% of revenue / ≥80% | Unchanged |
The next PepsiCo report is not in the window. The guide implies a Q4 core EPS around $2.20–2.30 against $2.26 a year ago, so the street has to cut rather than raise. October's move depends on the size of those cuts and on the peer prints, not on new company numbers.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | RBC, Wells Fargo, UBS, Barclays | Bearish | Targets cut to $150, $135, $145 and $133 between 1 and 6 Oct |
| Late Sep 2026 | JPMorgan (Teixeira) | Bearish | Downgraded to Neutral, $138 from $170; the recovery "appears to have stalled following 1Q26" |
| Late Sep 2026 | Deutsche Bank (Powers) | Bearish | Downgraded to Hold, $138 from $155; less certainty in North America strategy |
| Sep 2026 | BNP Paribas, Evercore, TD Cowen | Mixed | BNP keeps Outperform at $161; Evercore $135 and TD Cowen $133 at In-Line / Hold |
| Oct 2026 release | Management (CEO Ramon Laguarta) | Mixed | "Acting with urgency" on North America; more structural cost cuts coming |
| Consensus | 22 analysts | Neutral | Hold; mean target $148.64, median $147.50, range $124–180 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus, Invezz and GuruFocus on the September downgrades, the company release, retrieved 8 Oct 2026. The consensus mean includes targets set before the September cuts; recent targets cluster at $133–150.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | Directors (Cook, Gibbs, Conde, Cooper, Gass, Vasella and others) | Award (quarterly grant) | 1,606–3,543 each | $125.60 | ~$200k each | Routine director pay; no signal |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Robert Pohlad, Director | Award (grant) | 1,827 | $125.60–126.72 | $229.8k | Routine; no signal |
| 27 Jul 2026 | David Flavell, General Counsel | Sale | 2,900 | $139.54 | $404.7k | Small; mild negative |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Eugene Willemsen, Officer | Sale | 6,500 | $164.44–164.46 | $1.07M | Sold near the highs |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Ramon Laguarta, CEO | Sale | 27,945 | $167.39 | $4.68M | Annual pattern (also Mar 2025); mild negative |
| Mar 2025 | Laguarta, Krishnan, Gallagher and others | Sale | ~128k total | $150.89–159.55 | ~$19.7M | Annual March vesting-window sales |
| YTD 2026 | Company (buyback) | Repurchase | n/d | n/d | $739M | Small: $1.0B planned for the year |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed; buyback from the Q3 release. No open-market purchases by officers or directors appear in the recent filings. Officer sales cluster in early March each year after annual vesting, so they carry little information on their own. Insider ownership is small relative to the $169B market cap.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~early Feb 2027 | PepsiCo (expected) | Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance | No |
| ~early Dec 2026 | PepsiCo (expected) | Next ex-dividend date ($1.48 a quarter) | No |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Mondelēz, Keurig Dr Pepper, Kraft Heinz (expected) | Q3 results; US snack and beverage volume read | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; drives staples-versus-growth rotation | Yes |
| ~21 Oct 2026 | Coca-Cola (expected) | Q3 results; the closest beverage comparison | Yes |
| ~mid Oct 2026 | PepsiCo 10-Q (expected) | Segment detail on PFNA pricing, volume and cost actions | Yes, early |
| 8–10 Oct 2026 | Sell-side (expected) | Post-print estimate and target resets | Just before |
| 8 Oct 2026 | PepsiCo release | Q3 beat ($25.27B / $2.34 core); FY26 core EPS guide cut to +2.5–3.5% | No, sets the base |
| 28–29 Sep 2026 | Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan | Back-to-back downgrades to Hold / Neutral at $138 | No, sets the base |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Press reports | Snack price cuts failed to lift sales; increases planned on some chips | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 8 Oct 2026 report date (18 Oct – 7 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Mid Oct: the 10-Q and the tail of the estimate resets. ~21 Oct: Coca-Cola, the cleanest read on US beverage demand and pricing. Late Oct: Mondelēz, Keurig Dr Pepper and Kraft Heinz on snacks and the US consumer. 27–28 Oct: FOMC, which sets the tone for defensive versus cyclical rotation.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | $123.73 | $169.0B | $98.24B | 1.72× | +5.6% | Hold · $148.64 | Negative |
| Coca-Cola (KO) | $85.82 | $369.2B | $50.13B | 7.37× | +6.7% | Buy · $94.43 | Positive |
| Mondelēz (MDLZ) | $59.38 | $75.8B | $39.67B | 1.91× | +4.1% | Buy · $69.00 | Mixed |
| Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) | $30.54 | $41.6B | $20.09B | 2.07× | +75.6% | Buy · $36.21 | Mixed |
| General Mills (GIS) | $31.77 | $17.0B | $18.30B | 0.93× | −2.8% | Hold · $37.00 | Negative |
| Peer median | — | $58.7B | $29.88B | 1.99× | +5.4% | — | — |
Prices at the 7 Oct 2026 close. PEP figures come from its Q3 2026 release (to 5 Sep 2026); TTM revenue is Q4 2025 through Q3 2026. Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun–Aug 2026. Keurig Dr Pepper's growth reflects its JDE Peet's acquisition. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target; PEP's mean predates most post-print resets.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | $150 | $161 | 6 Oct 2026 | +21.2% | Sector Perform | ▼ Lowered |
| Wells Fargo | $135 | $140 | 5 Oct 2026 | +9.1% | Equal-Weight | ▼ Lowered |
| UBS | $145 | $159 | 2 Oct 2026 | +17.2% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| Barclays | $133 | $142 | 1 Oct 2026 | +7.5% | Equal-Weight | ▼ Lowered |
| Evercore ISI | $135 | $150 | 30 Sep 2026 | +9.1% | In-Line | ▼ Lowered |
| JPMorgan | $138 | $170 | 29 Sep 2026 | +11.5% | Neutral (downgrade) | ▼ Lowered |
| TD Cowen | $133 | $145 | 28 Sep 2026 | +7.5% | Hold | ▼ Lowered |
| Deutsche Bank | $138 | $155 | 28 Sep 2026 | +11.5% | Hold (downgrade) | ▼ Lowered |
| BNP Paribas | $161 | $183 | 23 Sep 2026 | +30.1% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $123.73 close on 7 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. All but one action since June (Barclays raised to $142 on 21 Jul) has been a cut; the nine shown average a 10% reduction. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $123.73 |
| Consensus target | $148.64 |
| Median target | $147.50 |
| High target | $180.00 |
| Low target | $124.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +20.1% |
| Implied downside to low | +0.2% |
| Analysts contributing | 22 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 8 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. The stock trades at the lowest published target. The recent actions average $141.
| $124 |
| $149 |
| $148 |
| $180 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | $22,726M | +26.8% | ~+1.0% | $0.92 | 54.7% | $4,668Me | 20.5% | Beat | +7.5% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | $23,937M | +5.3% | ~+2.7% | $1.90 | 53.6% | $4,726Me | 19.7% | Beat | +4.2% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | $29,343M | +22.6% | ~+5.6% | $1.85 | 53.2% | $4,707Me | 16.0% | Beat | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | $19,443M | −33.7% | +8.5% | $1.70 | 55.2% | $4,175Me | 21.5% | Beat | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | $24,181M | +24.4% | +6.4% | $2.18 | 54.2% | $5,164Me | 21.4% | Miss (EPS) | −3.3% |
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | $25,274M | +4.5% | +5.6% | $2.23 | 54.4% | ~$5,180Me | ~20.5% | Beat | Pending |
| FY26 guide | ~+6% net | — | ~+3% organic | ~$8.38 core | — | — | — | Cut (EPS) | — |
Fiscal quarters are 12 weeks (Q1–Q3) and 16 weeks (Q4), so QoQ changes mostly reflect calendar length. Reports come before the open, so the reaction is same-day. Gross margin is reported. Adj. EBITDA marked e is vendor normalised EBITDA (ex-impairment); Q3 2026 is core operating profit plus about $0.9B of D&A (derived). YoY marked "~" uses prior-year quarters from earlier releases; Q1 2025 revenue ($17,919M) is derived from the FY25 total.
Operating margin is vendor operating income over revenue for Q2 2025 – Q2 2026 (excluding the 2025 intangible impairments) and the reported 16.9% for Q3 2026. The Q4 dip is seasonal. Core operating margin was 16.9% in Q3 2026 against 17.3% a year earlier.
| Metric | 5 Sep 2026 | 27 Dec 2025 | 28 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 1.5–3.0 healthy · below, normal for staples with supplier financing |
| Quick ratio | ~0.75e | 0.67 | 0.65 | ≥1.0 healthy · below |
| Cash ratio | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.29 | Cash and short-term investments $11.2B against $34.5B of current liabilities |
The Sep 2026 quick ratio uses the June 2026 inventory figure ($6.73B), because inventory was not in the summary release (marked e). Dec 2025 and Dec 2024 from vendor annual data.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEP (5 Sep 26) | 0.94 | −$40.7B | Adequate |
| Coca-Cola (Jun 26) | 1.31 | −$27.9B | Strongest |
| Mondelēz (Mar 26) | 0.60 | −$20.3B | Tight |
| Keurig Dr Pepper (Jun 26) | 0.48 | −$32.0B | Tight |
| General Mills (May 26) | 0.70 | −$13.2B | Tight |
| Peer median | 0.65 | −$24.1B | — |
| Metric | 5 Sep 2026 | 27 Dec 2025 | 28 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 2.31 | 2.39 | 2.49 | Lower is safer · high but falling |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.45 | <0.5 conservative · passed, narrowly |
| Interest coverage | n/d (TTM) | 12.0× | 14.1× | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | ~1.40×e | 1.51× | n/d | >1.25 healthy · passed; OCF over interest plus current debt |
Debt: $51.9B (Sep 26; $9.2B current), $49.2B (Dec 25), $44.9B (Dec 24, vendor). Equity is total equity per the release ($22.5B, $20.5B) and vendor for Dec 2024. Coverage is operating income over interest expense (FY25 $1.12B, FY24 $0.92B). The Sep 2026 DSCR uses TTM operating cash flow of ~$14.6B (derived) against ~$10.4B of interest and current debt.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 54.4% | 54.2% | 53.6% | 54.1% | 54.6% | → |
| Operating margin (reported) | 16.9% | 15.3% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 14.1% | ▲ (core 16.9% vs 17.3% ▼) |
| Net margin | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~20.5%e | ~19.6%e | 19.7% | 18.7% | 18.2% | → |
| Return on assets | 2.7% (q) | 9.9% | 2.4% (q) | 8.0% | 9.6% | → |
| Return on equity | 13.6% (q) | 50.6% | 13.4% (q) | 42.9% | 52.4% | → |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 11.1% × 0.90 × 5.10 | — | 8.8% × 0.91 × 5.38 | — | Leverage-driven ROE |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. Reported margins in 2025 were depressed by $2.0B of intangible impairments (Rockstar, Be & Cheery), so reported improvement in 2026 overstates the underlying trend; core margins are slightly down. TTM operating income combines vendor figures for Q4 2025 – Q2 2026 with reported Q3 2026. ROE above 40% reflects an equity multiplier of about 5.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP (TTM) | 54.2% | 15.3% | 11.1% | ~19.6% | 50.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Coca-Cola | 61.9% | 34.9% | 28.6% | 33.9% | 42.1% | 1 of 5 |
| Mondelēz | 31.1% | 22.0% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 13.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | 51.0% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 23.9% | 5.1% | 5 of 5 |
| General Mills | 33.7% | 15.2% | −4.9% | 18.7% | n/m | 4 of 5 |
| Peer median | 42.4% | 18.6% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 9.2% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures. Rank is by operating margin. General Mills' ROE is not meaningful (TTM loss); the peer ROE median uses the three remaining peers.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.90 | 0.91 (FY25) | Stable |
| Revenue per employee | ~$321k | ~$307k (FY25) | On ~306,000 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY, reported) | +17% | — | Core +2%; core constant currency +1.5% |
| EPS growth (YTD, core) | +5% | — | Reported +47% on the 2025 impairment base |
| Dividend yield | 4.78% | ~4.1% (Oct 2025) | $5.92 a year; 54 consecutive annual increases |
| FCF yield | ~6.1% | ~4.5% (FY25) | TTM FCF ~$10.3B (derived) on the current market cap |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | 0.90 | $321k | ~306,000 | +17% (core +2%) | 4.78% | 3 of 5 |
| Coca-Cola | 0.46 | $761k | 65,900 | +16% | 2.47% | 2 of 5 |
| Mondelēz | 0.56 | $436k | 91,000 | +142% | 3.50% | 4 of 5 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | 0.23 | $402k | 50,000 | −74% | 3.01% | 1 of 5 |
| General Mills | 0.61 | $610k | 30,000 | −67% | 7.68% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.51 | $523k | 57,950 | −26% | 3.26% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY GAAP figure, distorted by impairments and acquisitions across the group. PEP's headcount includes its bottling and distribution network, which explains the low revenue per employee.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | $25,274M | $23,937M | +5.6% | Organic +3.1% |
| PFNA revenue / op. profit | $6,504M / $1,333M | ~$6,504M / ~$1,532M | 0% / −13% | Organic flat; core cc op. profit −12% |
| PBNA revenue / op. profit | $7,706M / $1,056M | ~$7,339M / ~$728M | +5% / +45% | Organic flat; core op. profit +4% |
| LatAm Foods revenue | $3,021M | ~$2,650M | +14% | Organic +6%; core cc op. profit +10% |
| EMEA revenue | $5,413M | ~$5,012M | +8% | Organic +9%; core cc op. profit +19% |
| Asia Pacific Foods / Intl Beverages | $1,229M / $1,401M | ~$1,117M / ~$1,297M | +10% / +8% | Organic +9% / +7% |
| Volume (foods / beverages) | +1% / +3% | — | — | Convenient foods and beverage volume growth |
| Core operating margin | 16.9% | 17.3% | −35 bps | Includes ~4 pts tariff-refund benefit to core profit growth |
| YTD free cash flow | ~$5,857M | ~$3,241M | +81% | OCF $7,950M less net capex (calculated) |
Year-ago segment figures are approximate (back-solved from the stated growth rates, marked ~). PBNA's 2025 operating profit included the Rockstar impairment, which inflates its reported +45%.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM (reported) | 15.5× | 14.7× on TTM core EPS $8.41; peer median 25.8× |
| P/E on FY26 guide (~$8.38 core) | 14.8× | Peer forward median 14.9×; own five-year average ~21× |
| Price / book | 7.5× | Total equity $22.5B |
| Price / sales TTM | 1.72× | Peer median 1.99× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~10.9× | EV ~$209.7B on ~$19.2B (derived); peers 16.5× |
| PEG | 1.38 | Vendor; ~5× on the +3% FY26 core growth guide |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | ~6.1% / 4.78% | Dividend covered by FCF |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | $123.73 | $169.0B | $98.24B | 1.72× | −14% |
| Coca-Cola | $85.82 | $369.2B | $50.13B | 7.37× | +270% |
| Mondelēz | $59.38 | $75.8B | $39.67B | 1.91× | −4% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | $30.54 | $41.6B | $20.09B | 2.07× | +4% |
| General Mills | $31.77 | $17.0B | $18.30B | 0.93× | −53% |
| Peer median | — | $58.7B | $29.88B | 1.99× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | $7.96 | 15.5× | +5.6% | 1.38 | Five-year-low multiple; growth is the constraint |
| Coca-Cola | $3.33 | 25.8× | +6.7% | 4.03 | Quality premium; strongest share price |
| Mondelēz | $2.72 | 21.8× | +4.1% | 0.90 | Cocoa-cost recovery story |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | $0.97 | 31.5× | +75.6% | 0.98 | Acquisition-inflated; 12.1× forward |
| General Mills | −$1.64 | n/m | −2.8% | n/m | Distressed; 10.1× forward |
| Peer median | — | 25.8× | +5.4% | 0.98 | — |
PepsiCo is now valued like a slow grower: 14.8× this year's earnings, in line with the peer forward median and well below its own history, with a yield near 5%. That limits the downside in a month, but cheapness alone has not stopped a 27% decline since February. The multiple needs a North American catalyst to expand.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 14 Aug 2025 – 7 Oct 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 7 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 8 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.0674 | 0.0353 | 0.0407 | −0.0140 | 0.1358 | 82.4 | Random / Neutral, mildly trending. Positive almost all year; rising since 21 Sep as the decline extended |
| Volatility | 0.3713 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4952 | 0.5000 | 86.9 | Elevated. Up from −0.454 on 4 Sep through the September sell-off |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 12 consecutive sessions (since 22 Sep). Persistency (+0.067) is more than 0.05 from the axis, so the quadrant call is not provisional. As of 7 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 46.7% | Moves that extend; most of the shocks and sell-offs |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 3.5% | Brief, in Feb–Mar 2026 around the top |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 0.0% | Never visited |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 49.8% | Low-volatility drift; mostly lower this year |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 6 | Volatility fades after each shock |
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 6 | Prints, guidance and downgrade weeks |
| Volatile trend → Volatile chop | 2 | Feb–Mar 2026 top |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 2 | Return to trend |
Over the year, 21-day forward returns from Volatile Trend had a median of −0.4% and were positive 49% of the time (123 observations); from Quiet Drift −3.1% (32% positive). The 10-day Volatile Chop sample (−7.8%) is too thin to use. Unconditionally the 21-day median was −2.5% (38% positive), in a stock that fell 11% over the window. Read these as relative, not absolute. As of 7 Oct 2026.
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace — PEP's held one value from August 2025 to February 2026. That is the data behaving normally. Positive Persistency means moves have tended to extend, and the move since February has been down. For the next 10–30 days, Volatile Trend has historically been followed by roughly flat returns; a fade back to Quiet Drift has been followed by weaker ones. These statistics describe 14 Aug 2025 – 7 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.086 | 0.7 | 0.142 | −0.285 | 0.437 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.020 | 0.0 | −0.004 | −0.419 | 0.372 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.017 | 0.0 | −0.156 | −0.374 | 0.397 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.004 | 0.0 | −0.028 | −0.251 | 0.399 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.060 | 0.4 | −0.319 | −0.426 | 0.335 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.142 | 2.0 | −0.101 | −0.570 | 0.301 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.010 | 0.0 | −0.226 | −0.389 | 0.501 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.021 | 0.0 | −0.124 | −0.389 | 0.257 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of PEP against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 11 Oct 2021 – 7 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. No driver explains more than 2% of variance. Market Driver 5's rolling reading (−0.319) is near the bottom of its range. Drivers as of 7 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00006 | 0.085 | 26.5% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.04629 | −0.141 | 73.5% |
PEP is an idiosyncratic name that trades with the consumer-staples basket, not with the market. Over the past year it has moved slightly against the S&P 500 and almost one-for-one with the staples fund. For the next 10–30 days an index hedge does not offset it; company news and the staples peers decide the month.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against PEP daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Both have oscillated around zero within roughly ±0.4. Market Driver 1 is +0.14 and Sector Driver 1 −0.10 on the latest readings, neither a material link. As of 7 Oct 2026.
PEP daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 6 Oct 2026, 1,168 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 296 | 25.3% | +1.3% | +1.1% | 18.2% | 0.06 | 48.6% | +4.17% | −3.52% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.5% | −3.7% | −5.5% | 22.1% | −0.25 | 50.0% | +7.19% | −5.36% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 288 | 24.6% | −6.6% | −5.8% | 17.4% | −0.33 | 46.9% | +4.81% | −3.19% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 415 | 35.5% | −19.6% | −12.4% | 19.9% | −0.62 | 49.6% | +4.10% | −6.40% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Quiet Range | 354 | 30.3% | +3.1% | +2.2% | 17.4% | 0.13 | 47.7% | +4.81% | −3.19% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 176 | 15.1% | −1.2% | −1.7% | 21.6% | −0.08 | 48.9% | +7.19% | −5.36% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 409 | 35.0% | −16.0% | −10.2% | 20.2% | −0.50 | 49.9% | +4.10% | −6.40% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 230 | 19.7% | −14.5% | −15.7% | 18.3% | −0.86 | 48.3% | +4.14% | −3.52% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 242 | 20.7% | −2.0% | −2.1% | 14.7% | −0.14 | 48.8% | +3.93% | −3.62% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 342 | 29.3% | −5.1% | −3.8% | 19.5% | −0.20 | 46.8% | +4.81% | −4.03% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 443 | 37.9% | −8.0% | −4.6% | 21.2% | −0.22 | 50.3% | +7.19% | −6.40% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 142 | 12.1% | −14.4% | −24.2% | 19.1% | −1.27 | 48.6% | +3.55% | −5.36% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded PEP return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 6 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for PEP | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +1.3% | 0.06 | 0.68 | 23 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −14.5% | −0.86 | 0.99 | 23 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −2.0% | −0.14 | 1.13 | 17 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | −19.7% | −0.66 | 0.94 | 96 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −1.3% | −0.13 | 1.85 | 11 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −24.1% | −1.07 | 2.25 | 72 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | −18.8% | −0.98 | 1.23 | 17 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −15.8% | −0.79 | 1.08 | 16 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | −21.4% | −0.61 | 2.12 | 276 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −7.8% | −0.81 | 1.96 | 26 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −23.9% | −1.11 | 1.18 | 107 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −23.6% | −2.37 | 2.84 | 11 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | −10.4% | −0.34 | 1.53 | 13 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −15.2% | −0.60 | 1.74 | 6 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning PEP is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 6 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 6 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. PEP fell over much of this window, which pulls most Sharpe ratios below zero; compare buckets, not absolute levels. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 6 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 26 | PepsiCo Q3 beats: core EPS $2.34 vs $2.30, revenue $25.27B vs $24.97B; organic +3.1% (Investing.com, Newsquawk) | Positive |
| 8 Oct 26 | PepsiCo cuts full-year profit forecast as North America underperforms (Quartz, CNBC) | Negative |
| 8 Oct 26 | Laguarta: "acting with urgency" in North America; more structural cost cuts coming (release) | Mixed |
| 8 Oct 26 | "A Q3 beat, a guidance cut, and the lowest P/E in five years" (TIKR) | Mixed |
| 8 Oct 26 | Shares trade about 1% higher pre-market, then fade (Investing.com) | Mixed |
| 7 Oct 26 | Stock closes at a 52-week low of $123.73 | Negative |
| 1–6 Oct 26 | Barclays ($133), UBS ($145), Wells Fargo ($135) and RBC ($150) cut targets ahead of the print | Negative |
| 29 Sep 26 | JPMorgan downgrades to Neutral ($138): recovery "appears to have stalled" (Invezz, GuruFocus) | Negative |
| 28 Sep 26 | Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold ($138) on North America strategy uncertainty | Negative |
| 24 Sep 26 | Snack price cuts of up to 15% fail to lift sales; increases planned on some chips | Negative |
| 9 Jul 26 | Q2 core EPS $2.20 misses $2.21; stock −3.3%; North American food sales −2% | Negative |
| 3 Feb 26 | Q4 beat; PepsiCo plans price cuts to win back shoppers; stock +4.9%, peaks at $170.49 on 6 Feb | Positive |
12 rows, newest first. Sources as listed, plus the company release and Yahoo Finance rating log; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "Elliott-driven turnaround with price cuts" (February) to "the turnaround has stalled" (September). The Q3 print did not change that narrative; it reset the profit bar beneath it.
| Field | PepsiCo, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | PepsiCo, Inc. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NASDAQ: PEP · formed 1965 (Pepsi-Cola and Frito-Lay merger) | KO, GIS NYSE; MDLZ, KDP NASDAQ |
| Domicile | United States (Purchase, New York) | All peers US-based |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Staples · Beverages and convenient foods | — |
| Market cap | $169.0B (1,366M shares × $123.73) | Second to Coca-Cola ($369B); 2.2× Mondelēz |
| Employees | ~306,000 | Largest in the set, reflecting owned bottling and direct-store delivery |
| TTM revenue | $98.24B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Largest in the set; about 2× Coca-Cola |
| Revenue model | Six segments: PFNA (26% of Q3), PBNA (30%), LatAm Foods, EMEA, Asia Pacific Foods, International Beverages Franchise; roughly 60% foods / 40% beverages globally | Coca-Cola is beverage-only and asset-light |
| Key differentiators | Frito-Lay's US savoury-snack share and distribution; Pepsi, Gatorade, Lay's, Doritos, Quaker; international scale | Mondelēz leads in biscuits and chocolate |
| CIK | 0000077476 | — |
| Website | pepsico.com | — |
The 8 October print beat on revenue and core EPS, but cut the full-year profit outlook to +1–2% in constant currency, with North American foods profit down 13% and the quarter helped by tariff refunds. The market had largely anticipated it: the stock fell 10.6% in a month to a 52-week low, nine brokers cut targets, and it now trades at 14.8× earnings with a 4.8% yield and a negative correlation to the index. Against that, 9 of 14 market groups sit in PEP's worst regime and nothing from PepsiCo itself falls inside the window. The view turns bullish if Coca-Cola and Mondelēz report stable US volumes and PEP retakes $130. It turns bearish if the peer prints confirm weak US snack demand and PEP closes below $120.