Close 12 Oct 2026
$238.14
Five straight beats and a twice-raised outlook have not stopped a 32% slide, because the market is pricing leadership turnover, slowing bookings and AI disruption rather than the quarter. With no earnings print before mid-December and 99.5% of daily variance company-specific, the stock trades on news over the next 10–30 days: a fresh downgrade and a federal labour-program suspension weigh on it, while Adobe MAX on 10–12 November is the one dated event that could change the story.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | −32.0% YTD and −33.8% from the 52-week closing high ($359.91, 28 Oct 2025); −5.6% over 30 sessions. The post-Q3 bounce to $265.60 (14 Sep) fully reversed by late September. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Q3 FY26 revenue $6.76B, +12.9% YoY (+12% cc), including Semrush. Organic pace near 10–11%; RPO +8% is the slowest leading indicator in the set. | Mixed |
| Profitability | TTM GAAP operating margin 35.7%, adj. EBITDA margin 46.6% — highest in the peer set. Q3 GAAP op. margin slipped to 34.8% from 36.3%. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 13.3x TTM GAAP EPS and 9.7x the FY26 non-GAAP guide midpoint; P/S 3.6x vs peer median 5.3x. | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | Total ARR $27.50B (+11.2%), AI-first ARR above $650M (+150%), Firefly ARR +40% QoQ. Offset by freemium drag on monetisation metrics. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Cash and ST investments $5.64B vs debt $6.36B (net debt $0.72B). TTM free cash flow $10.6B covers $9.3B of buybacks. | Bullish |
| Regime state | ADBE is not covered by the Individual or Tracked regime tabs — no Persistency or Volatility reading. US market in Quiet Drift, Technology in Quiet Range (as of 9 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | Systematic share 0.5%, idiosyncratic 99.5% (271 obs, drivers as of 12 Oct 2026). Neither primary driver explains the stock; company news decides the window. | Neutral |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Headline flow: Wells Fargo downgrade to Underweight ($225, 12 Oct), the PERM suspension under "multiple active federal investigations" (8 Oct), and the CEO handover gap before 1 Dec. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Adobe MAX, Miami Beach, 10–12 Nov (keynote 10 Nov) — the first major stage for incoming CEO Chakravarthy. No earnings inside the window (Q4 FY26 expected mid-December). | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. Cheap and profitable, but without a scheduled earnings catalyst the window is governed by negative idiosyncratic headlines until MAX. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge.
The quarter is not the problem: Adobe has beaten five reports running and raised its full-year outlook twice. The problem for the next month is that every move since March has been set by people, not numbers — a CEO exit, a CFO exit, a creative chief exit, and now a downgrade and a federal suspension. Until MAX on 10 November, there is no scheduled event big enough to reset that narrative.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Competitive position is shown for context and carries no weight. The composite scores the company; the window verdict also weighs the absence of a scheduled catalyst.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell-side derating | Market | Target cuts lower the reference price; consensus Hold leaves few natural buyers. | Likely |
| PERM / federal probes | Governance | Disclosure of scope or penalties; reputational spill-over to enterprise deals. | Possible |
| MAX execution | Competitive | Product event without pricing detail reinforces AI-substitution fears. | Possible |
| CEO transition | Governance | New CEO strategy reset could imply investment-heavy FY27. | Partly |
| Bookings slowdown | Financial | RPO +8% feeds into weaker FY27 guide in December. | No |
| AI substitution | Competitive | Seat compression across Creative Cloud and Document Cloud. | No |
| Macro / tape | Macro | Systematic share 0.5% — market moves have barely transmitted. | Unlikely |
The risks that can bite this month are about information, not operations: what analysts write before MAX, what regulators disclose, and what management says on stage. None needs the business to deteriorate to move the stock.
| Quarter | Report date | Revenue | vs est. | EPS (dil.) | vs est. | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 | 10 Sep 2026 | $6.76B | +1.0% | $6.13 (GAAP $4.62) | +0.8% | +1.4% |
| Q2 FY26 | 11 Jun 2026 | $6.62B | +2.6% | $5.96 (GAAP $4.25) | +2.4% | −6.8% |
| Q1 FY26 | 12 Mar 2026 | $6.40B | +1.9% | $6.06 (GAAP $4.60) | +3.2% | −7.6% |
| Q4 FY25 | 10 Dec 2025 | $6.19B | +1.3% | $5.50 (GAAP $4.45) | +1.9% | +2.1% |
| Q3 FY25 | 11 Sep 2025 | $5.99B | +1.4% | $5.31 (GAAP $4.18) | +2.5% | −0.3% |
EPS is non-GAAP diluted (GAAP diluted in brackets) versus the non-GAAP consensus cited in press coverage at the time. Reaction is the first full session after release, from Massive daily closes; Q2 FY26 also fell 6.2% on the release day itself.
| Company | Rev beat rate | EPS beat rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 5 / 5 | 5 / 5 | FY26 raised Jun and Sep |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Peer beat histories were not collected for this run.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | mid-Dec 2026 | Not yet confirmed; outside the 10–30 day window (ends ~12 Nov) |
| Q4 revenue guide | $6.80–6.85B | +9.8–10.6% YoY vs $6.19B; slightly below consensus at issue |
| Q4 non-GAAP EPS guide | $6.30–6.35 | GAAP $4.65–4.70; ~44% non-GAAP op. margin |
| FY26 revenue guide | $26.576–26.626B | Raised from $26.50–26.60B (June) |
| FY26 non-GAAP EPS | $24.45–24.50 | Raised from $24.35–24.45 |
| FY26 ARR growth target | 10.2% | Book of business from $25.66B start |
| FY27 guidance | None | Due with Q4 in December — the market's main open question |
The next print falls outside the window, so earnings cannot rescue or sink the month. The pattern to respect is that beats have not produced rallies: three of the last five reactions were negative, and each of the large drops coincided with a leadership announcement rather than a miss.
| Period | Source | View | Key point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Bearish | Downgraded to Underweight, target $270 → $225, citing Q3 detail and Q4 headwinds. |
| Oct 2026 | Evercore ISI | Neutral | Target raised $225 → $250; rating not collected. |
| Sep 2026 | JPMorgan | Bullish | Overweight kept, target $340 → $315; Q3 "robust", shares cheap ahead of a monetisation recovery. |
| Sep 2026 | DA Davidson | Bullish | Buy, target $250 → $290 after Q3. |
| Sep 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Bearish | Sell kept, target $190 → $200. |
| Sep 2026 | UBS | Neutral | Q3 shows AI resilience but limited upside. |
| Oct 2026 | Consensus (MarketBeat, 33 analysts) | Mixed | Hold; average target $282.68. Mixed reaction to the lack of FY27 guidance. |
Compiled from press coverage of rating actions (GuruFocus, TheStreet, MarketScreener, Beinsure, Weiss Ratings). Full notes were not reviewed.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16–17 Sep 2026 | Shantanu Narayen, Chair & CEO | Sale | 125,000 | $246.09–253.64 | ~$31.3M | Negative Sold days after results and the succession announcement; size is material in dollars. |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Board | CEO succession | — | — | — | Neutral Anil Chakravarthy named CEO effective 1 Dec; Narayen to executive chair. |
| 11 Jun 2026 | Dan Durn, CFO | Departure | — | — | — | Negative Left 15 Jun; Steve Day interim CFO. No permanent CFO named as of report date. |
Sale details from Weiss Ratings' summary of Form 4 filings; whether the sale was under a 10b5-1 plan was not verified. A full Form 4 sweep was not run — treat this table as incomplete.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–12 Nov 2026 | Adobe | Adobe MAX, Miami Beach Convention Center — keynote 10 Nov; MAX Sneaks 11 Nov. | Yes |
| 12 Oct 2026 | GuruFocus | Wells Fargo downgrade to Underweight, target $270 → $225; shares −2.6% pre-market. | Context |
| 8 Oct 2026 | CNBC / DOL | Labor Department suspends Adobe and Microsoft from the PERM green-card program, citing multiple active federal investigations; initial suspension up to 180 days. | Ongoing |
| Oct 2026 | Beinsure | Enterprise AI partnership with Heathrow Airport, following the NHL deal. | Context |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Beinsure | Official creative, marketing and AI partner of the NHL and its 32 clubs. | Context |
| 16–17 Sep 2026 | Weiss Ratings | CEO Narayen sells 125,000 shares (~$31.3M). | Context |
| 10 Sep 2026 | SEC 8-K | Q3 FY26: revenue $6.76B (+13%), non-GAAP EPS $6.13, ARR $27.50B, RPO $22.16B (+8%); FY26 raised; Q4 guide $6.80–6.85B. | Context |
| 3 Sep 2026 | SEC 8-K | Anil Chakravarthy to become CEO on 1 Dec; shares −6.7% next session alongside David Wadhwani's exit. | Context |
| 1 Dec 2026 | Adobe | CEO handover takes effect. | No — after window |
| mid-Dec 2026 | Adobe (expected) | Q4 FY26 results and FY27 targets. | No — after window |
Window runs 13 Oct – 12 Nov 2026. Past events are marked context; dated future events are marked by whether they fall inside it.
10 Nov — Adobe MAX keynote. Moves the AI-monetisation narrative and is the first look at the incoming CEO's agenda. Ongoing — PERM / federal investigations. Undated; any disclosure moves governance risk. No earnings, no guidance update and no index event is scheduled inside the window.
| Company | Price | Market cap | TTM revenue | P/S TTM | Rev growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source view | News sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE · Adobe | $238.14 | $92.7B | $25.97B | 3.6x | +12.9% | Hold consensus | Negative |
| CRM · Salesforce | $233.92 | $192.5B | $43.94B | 4.4x | +10.8% | n/c | n/c |
| INTU · Intuit | $305.99 | $81.8B | $21.45B | 3.8x | +13.7% | n/c | n/c |
| ADSK · Autodesk | $233.54 | $48.8B | $7.79B | 6.3x | +16.1% | n/c | n/c |
| FIG · Figma | $21.96 | $11.6B | $1.28B | 9.0x | +48.2% | n/c | n/c |
| Peer median | — | $65.3B | $14.62B | 5.3x | +14.9% | — | — |
Prices are 12 Oct 2026 closes (Massive). Market cap = close × shares outstanding from each company's latest 10-Q cover (Figma: weighted diluted shares, Q2 2026). TTM revenue and growth from SEC XBRL filings; latest quarters end 28 Aug (ADBE), 31 Jul (CRM, INTU, ADSK) and 30 Jun 2026 (FIG). Peer analyst views and news sentiment were not collected (n/c).
| Analyst / source | Current target | Previous | Date | Implied return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | $225 | $270 | 12 Oct 2026 | −5.5% | Underweight | ▼ Lowered |
| Evercore ISI | $250 | $225 | 8 Oct 2026 | +5.0% | n/c | ▲ Raised |
| DA Davidson | $290 | $250 | 14 Sep 2026 | +21.8% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Goldman Sachs | $200 | $190 | 14 Sep 2026 | −16.0% | Sell | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan | $315 | $340 | 13 Sep 2026 | +32.3% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
| Piper Sandler | $250 | $240 | 11 Sep 2026 | +5.0% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| Citigroup | $250 | $301 | Sep 2026 | +5.0% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Jefferies | $275 | $285 | Sep 2026 | +15.5% | n/c | ▼ Lowered |
| RBC Capital | $315 | $285 | 2 Sep 2026 | +32.3% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
Newest first. Implied return against the $238.14 close of 12 Oct 2026. Two dates are given as month only where coverage did not state the day.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $238.14 |
| Consensus target (TipRanks, 3-month) | $265.64 |
| Median of targets listed above | $250 |
| High target | $373.00 |
| Low target | $195.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +11.5% |
| Implied downside to low | −18.1% |
| Analysts contributing | 24 |
Other aggregators: WallStreetZen $265.09 (22), MarketScreener $275.06 (39), MarketBeat $282.68 (33).
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY26 guide | $6,825M | +1.0% | +10.2% | $4.65–4.70 | — | — | ~44% op.* | Slightly below cons. | — |
| Q3 FY26 | $6,760M | +2.1% | +12.9% | $4.62 | 88.7% | $3,108M | 46.0% | Beat | +1.4% |
| Q2 FY26 | $6,618M | +3.4% | +12.7% | $4.25 | 89.2% | $2,965M | 44.8% | Beat | −6.8% |
| Q1 FY26 | $6,398M | +3.3% | +12.0% | $4.60 | 89.6% | $3,101M | 48.5% | Beat | −7.6% |
| Q4 FY25 | $6,194M | +3.4% | +10.5% | $4.44 | 89.5% | $2,934M | 47.4% | Beat | +2.1% |
| Q3 FY25 | $5,988M | +2.0% | +10.7% | $4.18 | 89.3% | $2,878M | 48.1% | Beat | −0.3% |
| Q2 FY25 | $5,873M | +2.8% | +10.6% | $3.94 | 89.1% | $2,799M | 47.7% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY25 | $5,714M | +1.9% | +10.3% | $4.14 | 89.1% | $2,855M | 50.0% | Beat | — |
GAAP diluted EPS. Adj. EBITDA = GAAP operating income + depreciation & amortisation + stock-based compensation (derived from XBRL; Q4 and some quarterly D&A/SBC derived from year-to-date totals). Prior-year quarterly revenue for FY24 comparisons from Adobe's FY24 releases. Reactions before Sep 2025 fall outside the collected price series. *Guide row shows non-GAAP operating margin.
Eight reported quarters, Q4 FY24 to Q3 FY26. Revenue and margin sit on separate bands because they do not share a scale.
| Metric | 28 Aug 2026 | 28 Nov 2025 | 29 Nov 2024 | Target / status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.5–3.0 — below range; $7.09B deferred revenue inflates current liabilities |
| Quick ratio | 0.65 | 0.88 | 0.95 | ≥1.0 — below; same deferred-revenue effect |
| Cash ratio | 0.47 | 0.65 | 0.75 | Falling as cash funds buybacks |
Columns are Adobe's actual balance-sheet dates: Q3 FY26 and fiscal year-ends FY25 and FY24. Cash includes short-term investments.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current ratio | Net cash position | Liquidity status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 0.77 | −$0.72B | Adequate (deferred revenue) |
| CRM | 0.84 | n/c | Adequate (deferred revenue) |
| INTU | 1.51 | n/c | Healthy |
| ADSK | 0.86 | n/c | Adequate (deferred revenue) |
| FIG | 2.45 | +$1.67B | Healthy |
| Peer median | 1.18 | — | — |
Peer net-cash figures were not reconciled for this run (debt tagging varies across filers) and are marked n/c.
| Metric | 28 Aug 2026 | 28 Nov 2025 | 29 Nov 2024 | Target / status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.54 | 0.53 | 0.40 | Moderate; equity shrunk by buybacks |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.19 | <0.5 — conservative |
| Interest coverage | 35.7x | 33.1x | 39.9x | >2.5 — very strong |
| Debt service coverage | 5.4x | 36.2x | 4.6x | >1.25 — strong even with current maturities |
Debt = long-term debt plus current portion/commercial paper ($6.36B at 28 Aug 2026). Coverage uses TTM (Q3 FY26) or fiscal-year operating income; debt service = interest + current debt maturities. All derived.
| Metric | Q3 FY26 | TTM | Q3 FY25 | FY25 | FY24 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 88.7% | 89.3% | 89.3% | 89.3% | 89.0% | ▼ |
| Operating margin | 34.8% | 35.7% | 36.3% | 36.6% | 31.3% | ▼ |
| Net margin | 27.0% | 28.0% | 29.6% | 30.0% | 25.9% | ▼ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 46.0% | 46.6% | 48.1% | 48.2% | 43.9% | ▼ |
| Return on assets | 24.4% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 24.2% | 18.4% | → |
| Return on equity | 62.1% | 61.9% | 60.2% | 61.3% | 39.4% | → |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | 27.0% × 0.90 × 2.55 | 28.0% × 0.87 × 2.55 | 29.6% × 0.83 × 2.44 | 30.0% × 0.81 × 2.54 | 25.9% × 0.71 × 2.14 | → |
Quarterly ROA and ROE annualised (×4) on period-end balances. FY25 margins benefited from lower D&A; the year-on-year decline in Q3 reflects higher cost of revenue (+19%) and Semrush integration.
| Peer comparison (TTM) | Gross | Op margin | Net margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 89.3% | 35.7% | 28.0% | 46.6% | 61.9% | 1 of 5 |
| CRM | 77.3% | 19.9% | 22.0% | 37.1% | 25.2% | 4 of 5 |
| INTU | n/a | 27.4% | 21.3% | 37.9% | 24.0% | 2 of 5 |
| ADSK | 91.2% | 26.2% | 21.1% | 37.8% | 48.5% | 3 of 5 |
| FIG | 79.1% | −123.8% | −123.1% | 8.3% | −106.8% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 79.1% | 23.0% | 21.2% | 37.5% | 24.6% | — |
GAAP figures from SEC XBRL; adj. EBITDA derived the same way for every company. Intuit does not tag gross profit (n/a). Figma's TTM includes post-IPO stock compensation, which distorts its margins. Rank is by operating margin.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.87 | 0.81 | Rising as revenue grows on a flat asset base |
| EPS growth (GAAP, YoY) | +11.7% | +35.1% | FY25 flattered by FY24 Figma termination fee |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $10.59B | $9.85B | Prior: FY25 OCF less capex (derived) |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | Capital returned via buybacks only |
| Platform metric | Q3 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Adobe ARR | $27.50B | ~$24.73B | +11.2% | Includes ~$480M Semrush |
| Customer-group subscription revenue | $6.56B | ~$5.77B | +14% | 97% of revenue |
| Business Prof. & Consumers sub. rev | $1.91B | $1.65B | +16% | Acrobat AI, Express |
| Creative & Marketing Prof. sub. rev | $4.65B | $4.12B | +13% | Creative Cloud, GenStudio |
| Remaining performance obligations | $22.16B | ~$20.5B | +8% | Slowest growth line |
| AI-first ending ARR | >$650M | — | >+150% | Firefly ARR +40% QoQ |
Prior-year ARR, subscription revenue and RPO marked "~" are back-calculated from reported growth rates.
| Company | Asset turnover | Rev / employee | Employees | EPS growth (TTM) | Div yield | Growth rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 0.87 | n/c | n/c | +11.7% | — | 4 of 5 |
| CRM | 0.40 | n/c | n/c | +59.2% | n/c | 5 of 5 |
| INTU | 0.58 | n/c | n/c | +20.7% | n/c | 3 of 5 |
| ADSK | 0.60 | n/c | n/c | +60.2% | — | 2 of 5 |
| FIG | 0.55 | n/c | n/c | n/m | — | 1 of 5 |
Headcount not collected for this run (n/c). Salesforce and Autodesk TTM EPS growth is inflated by one-off items and low prior-year bases. Growth rank is by latest-quarter revenue growth.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM (GAAP) | 13.3x | On $17.91 TTM diluted EPS |
| P/E forward (non-GAAP guide) | 9.7x | FY26 guide $24.45–24.50 |
| Price / book | 7.9x | Equity reduced by buybacks |
| Price / sales TTM | 3.57x | Peer median 5.3x |
| EV / EBITDA (GAAP) | 9.3x | EV $93.4B; 7.7x on adj. EBITDA |
| PEG | 1.14 | TTM P/E over 11.7% TTM GAAP EPS growth |
| Price / sales | Price | Market cap | TTM revenue | P/S TTM | vs peer median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | $238.14 | $92.7B | $25.97B | 3.6x | −33% |
| CRM | $233.92 | $192.5B | $43.94B | 4.4x | −18% |
| INTU | $305.99 | $81.8B | $21.45B | 3.8x | −28% |
| ADSK | $233.54 | $48.8B | $7.79B | 6.3x | +18% |
| FIG | $21.96 | $11.6B | $1.28B | 9.0x | +70% |
| Peer median | — | $65.3B | $14.62B | 5.3x | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | $17.91 | 13.3x | +12.9% | 1.14 | Cheapest on P/E; growth priced as ex-growth |
| CRM | $10.97 | 21.3x | +10.8% | 0.36 | PEG distorted by one-off gain |
| INTU | $16.57 | 18.5x | +13.7% | 0.89 | Similar growth, higher multiple |
| ADSK | $7.72 | 30.3x | +16.1% | 0.50 | Premium for fastest mature growth |
| FIG | $-3.23 | n/m | +48.2% | n/m | Loss-making; valued on sales |
| Peer median | — | 21.3x | +14.9% | 0.50 | — |
Valuation gives ADBE a floor argument but not a catalyst. At under 10x forward earnings with sector-leading margins, the downside from here needs fresh bad news rather than mere absence of good news — which is why the headline flow, not the multiple, decides the next month.
ADBE is not among the tickers in the Individual regimes daily tab (header read 13 Oct 2026: UNH, DPZ, FBK, JNJ, WFC, JPM, ACI, GS, C, AZZ, NRIX) or the Tracked regimes daily tab (live-portfolio names). No Persistency or Volatility series exists for the stock, and none has been estimated. Sections 11 and 12 are unaffected because they use ADBE price history against the driver and market-regime tabs.
ADBE — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (0 daily points). The quadrant frame is shown empty because the ticker has no coverage. Source checked: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily and Tracked regimes daily. Workbook read 13 Oct 2026; no ADBE series to date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | No coverage — add ADBE to the Individual regimes tab to populate |
| Volatility | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | Proxy only: realised 30-day volatility 36.6% vs 41.1% over one year — compressing |
No quadrant can be assigned. The realised-volatility proxy in the second row is computed from Massive daily closes and is not the workbook's Volatility measure.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | n/c | Directional moves that extend |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | n/c | Whipsaw; fading extremes has worked |
| Q3 | Quiet range | n/c | Mean-reverting; premium-selling regime |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | n/c | Low-volatility drift; favourable for long |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| — | n/c | Requires a Persistency / Volatility series |
Where coverage exists, the Persistency series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. These statistics are descriptive of their window and are not predictions. For ADBE no reading is available as of 13 Oct 2026.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.026 | 0.1 | 0.067 | −0.140 | 0.208 | Stable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.063 | 0.4 | 0.180 | −0.144 | 0.267 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.024 | 0.1 | −0.232 | −0.320 | 0.347 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.005 | 0.0 | 0.108 | −0.286 | 0.271 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.019 | 0.0 | −0.181 | −0.245 | 0.267 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.062 | 0.4 | −0.073 | −0.368 | 0.141 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.118 | 1.4 | −0.118 | −0.144 | 0.284 | Variable | Positive |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.037 | 0.1 | 0.130 | −0.444 | 0.192 | Variable | Neutral |
Daily log returns of ADBE against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values; window 15 Sep 2025 – 12 Oct 2026, 271 observations, rolling window 60 days. Correlations are never coloured. Drivers as of 12 Oct 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date. Every correlation is below 0.12 in absolute value; this is unusually low for a large-cap and is worth a cross-check against a plain index regression before acting on it.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00005 | 0.0394 | 25% of 0.5% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.06229 | −0.0691 | 75% of 0.5% |
The visible sliver for the systematic share is widened to 1.5% so it can be seen; the true value is 0.5%. Split of explained variance approximated from squared standardised betas (derived).
ADBE is neither a beta vehicle nor a sector proxy: over the past year it has been an idiosyncratic name. For the next 10–30 days that means the company decides the month — a strong or weak tape is unlikely to lift or sink it, and index hedges have not offset its moves.
Market Driver 1 (solid) and Sector Driver 1 (dashed) against ADBE daily returns, 60-session windows ending 2025-12-08 to 2026-10-12. Current readings 0.067 and −0.073; both have stayed inside ±0.37 all year with no sustained regime of co-movement.
ADBE daily returns grouped by the regime each market group was in on the same day. Every group is named, never its proxy ticker. Window 29 Sep 2025 – 9 Oct 2026, 260 sessions. Conditional statistics describe that window and are not forecasts.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 54 | 20.8% | +4.0% | +20.3% | 39.8% | 0.51 | 57.4% | +6.34% | −7.89% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift · current | 89 | 34.2% | +1.5% | +4.2% | 41.2% | 0.10 | 50.6% | +5.92% | −6.97% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 66 | 25.4% | −16.5% | −49.7% | 44.1% | −1.13 | 45.5% | +7.10% | −6.99% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 51 | 19.6% | −23.7% | −73.8% | 35.8% | −2.06 | 43.1% | +3.80% | −7.59% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 88 | 33.8% | −2.2% | −6.3% | 41.2% | −0.15 | 50.0% | +7.10% | −6.99% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 52 | 20.0% | −1.8% | −8.4% | 39.9% | −0.21 | 53.8% | +6.34% | −7.89% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift · current | 69 | 26.5% | −8.2% | −26.7% | 44.0% | −0.61 | 49.3% | +5.92% | −6.97% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 51 | 19.6% | −23.7% | −73.8% | 35.8% | −2.06 | 43.1% | +3.80% | −7.59% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 111 | 42.7% | −3.9% | −8.6% | 39.7% | −0.22 | 49.5% | +6.34% | −7.89% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 96 | 36.9% | −18.3% | −41.2% | 41.1% | −1.00 | 50.0% | +5.92% | −7.59% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Thin sample · current | 20 | 7.7% | −3.9% | −39.8% | 37.2% | −1.07 | 50.0% | +5.17% | −4.62% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 33 | 12.7% | −10.9% | −58.4% | 45.7% | −1.28 | 45.5% | +7.10% | −6.45% |
Best row green, worst red, among buckets with at least 30 days. Buckets under 30 days are greyed, badged and excluded. Cumulative return compounds ADBE's daily log returns on the days the group was in that regime (derived).
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for ADBE | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Volatile Chop | Quiet Range | +1.5% | 0.10 | 2.57 | 26 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Volatile Trend | Quiet Range | −8.2% | −0.61 | 1.91 | 26 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Volatile Chop | Volatile Trend | −3.9% | −1.07 (thin) | 1.06 | 20 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Volatile Chop | Volatile Trend | −33.5% | −1.13 | 2.20 | 99 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Volatile Trend | Volatile Chop | +19.6% | 2.19 | 3.79 | 14 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Volatile Trend | Volatile Chop | +18.9% | 0.92 | 2.77 | 75 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Volatile Chop | Quiet Drift | −0.1% | 0.00 | 1.65 | 20 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Volatile Trend | Volatile Chop | +11.1% | 1.36 | 2.90 | 19 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Volatile Chop | Volatile Chop | −34.4% | −0.83 | 0.00 | 47 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Quiet Range | Quiet Drift | −27.3% | −2.00 | 1.77 | 29 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Quiet Drift | Volatile Chop | −12.9% | −0.49 | 0.81 | 110 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Quiet Range | Volatile Chop | −5.7% | −1.34 (thin) | 1.40 | 14 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Quiet Drift | Volatile Trend | −5.4% | −1.39 (thin) | 2.11 | 16 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Volatile Chop | Quiet Range | +8.8% | 1.78 | 2.82 | 9 |
All 14 mapped groups. Best and worst regimes are taken from the full bucket set, including thin buckets, as computed by the regime script; check the per-group tables before relying on a thin-sample extreme. Days in current = consecutive sessions to 9 Oct 2026.
Regime-conditional history describes 29 Sep 2025 – 9 Oct 2026, a year in which ADBE fell about 30%, so most buckets are negative by construction. Rows marked thin sample hold fewer than 30 days and their annualised figures should not be relied on. Market regime series as of 9 Oct 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 26 | Wells Fargo downgrades Adobe to Underweight, cuts target to $225 | Negative |
| 12 Oct 26 | 24/7 Wall St.: Adobe "keeps cratering" despite beats; Street-high $373 target implies ~54% upside | Mixed |
| 10 Oct 26 | Simply Wall St: PERM suspension adds uncertainty around access to specialised AI talent | Negative |
| 8 Oct 26 | Labor Department suspends Microsoft and Adobe from PERM green-card program | Negative |
| 8 Oct 26 | Evercore ISI raises Adobe target to $250 from $225 | Positive |
| 6 Oct 26 | Adobe trades 34.5% below its 52-week high as consensus target sits near $283 | Mixed |
| 2 Oct 26 | 24/7 Wall St.: "The Adobe stock debate is about to get interesting" — $287 house target | Positive |
| 28 Sep 26 | Adobe named official creative, marketing and AI partner of the NHL | Positive |
| 22 Sep 26 | Shares −4.5% as RPO slowdown and CEO share sale weigh | Negative |
| 14 Sep 26 | DA Davidson raises target to $290; Goldman keeps Sell at $200 | Mixed |
| 13 Sep 26 | JPMorgan trims target to $315, calls shares cheap ahead of monetisation recovery | Mixed |
| 10 Sep 26 | Adobe beats Q3, raises FY26; Q4 revenue guide slightly below consensus | Mixed |
Paraphrased headlines, newest first, from the sources cited in sections 5–7.
| Field | Adobe Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Adobe Inc. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | Nasdaq: ADBE · listed 1986 | Peers: NYSE (CRM, FIG), Nasdaq (INTU, ADSK) |
| Domicile | Delaware; headquarters San Jose, California | All peers US-domiciled |
| Sector / industry | Information Technology · Application Software | — |
| Market cap | $92.7B | Peer median $65.3B; Salesforce ~2x larger |
| Employees | n/c | Not collected for this run |
| TTM revenue | $25.97B | Second-largest of five after Salesforce ($43.94B) |
| Revenue model | Subscription (~97% of revenue): Creative Cloud, Document Cloud/Acrobat, Firefly, Experience Cloud/GenStudio, Semrush | Subscription-led like all peers |
| Key differentiators | Category-defining creative and PDF franchises; commercially safe generative models (Firefly); enterprise content supply chain | Highest margins in the set |
| CIK | 0000796343 | — |
| Website | adobe.com | — |
The evidence favours the neutral case: a cheap, highly profitable business whose stock is held down by leadership turnover, a fresh downgrade and an open federal investigation, with no earnings print until December. Expect range-bound, headline-driven trading with a soft bias toward the $225–235 area while the downgrade cycle runs. The single condition that would flip the view bullish is a convincing monetisation and pricing story from the incoming CEO at Adobe MAX on 10 November; a disclosure of scope or penalties in the federal investigations would flip it bearish.