Close 12 Oct 2026
$263.73
Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.59 beat the $2.53 consensus and sales of $25.40B beat $25.28B, led by Innovative Medicine (+7.7%: Tremfya +68%, Darzalex +15%). Full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose only $0.06 to $11.10, and MedTech grew just 2.5% with international sales +1.5%. A $5.5B talc charge cut GAAP EPS to $0.09. The shares were ~2.5% lower before the open at ~$257, after a 27% gain this year. Over the next 10–30 days J&J trades on a premium multiple (23.8× this year) with little market correlation; peer prints and orthopaedics separation news decide whether the pullback deepens.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $263.73 on 12 Oct, +27.4% YTD and −5.3% from the $278.43 high of 3 Sep. Fell 5.9% between 28 Sep and 2 Oct as brokers warned on Q3 EPS, then recovered. About −2.5% pre-market (~$257) on the release. | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Q3 sales $25.40B, +5.9% reported and +6.1% adjusted operational, against $25.28B consensus. US +9.1%, international +1.5%. Innovative Medicine +7.7% despite a ~690 bp Stelara drag. FY26 adjusted operational growth guide raised to 6.4–6.8%. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Gross margin 68.1%. Adjusted EPS $2.59, −7.5% YoY, as R&D rose 26.7% to $4.65B with the Firefly Bio and Sail Biomedicines deals. GAAP EPS $0.09 after a $5.52B talc charge and $0.34B of IPR&D impairments. | Mixed |
| Valuation vs peers | 23.8× the $11.10 FY26 adjusted EPS guide against a 16.2× peer forward median. EV/EBITDA ~19.0× against 15.8×; P/S 6.40× against 4.59×. Dividend yield 2.03%. The premium leaves less room for disappointment. | Bearish |
| Platform KPIs | Tremfya $2.40B (+68%), Darzalex $4.24B (+15%), Carvykti $0.71B (+36%), Rybrevant $0.32B (+62%). Stelara $0.72B (−54%). MedTech +2.5%: electrophysiology, Shockwave and contact lenses grew; Abiomed and international were weak. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Cash and investments $20.8B against $49.0B of debt (June 2026; net debt $28.3B). Debt-to-equity 0.58; interest coverage ~26× (FY25). YTD free cash flow ~$15.1B against $14.2B. Talc payments start in 2027 (≤$3B), none in 2026. | Bullish |
| Regime state | Q2 Volatile Chop: Persistency −0.106 (8th percentile), Volatility +0.105, held 6 sessions since 5 Oct. Persistency has been negative since 28 Jul. Not on a boundary. As of 12 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 98.9% idiosyncratic on the drivers. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is −0.12 (beta −0.17); with the health-care sector fund 0.63 (beta 0.77). JNJ has diversified against the broad tape. As of 12 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | The market sells the beat because the quality was in pharma and the guide raise was only $0.06. A weak read from MedTech peers (Boston Scientific, Stryker) or another Abiomed headline would extend the fall, and 2027 loss-of-exclusivity exposure (~$4–4.5B) stays in focus ahead of the 8 Dec investor day. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Post-print target resets (13–15 Oct, just before). MedTech peers Boston Scientific and Stryker (~late Oct), Merck, AbbVie and Pfizer (late Oct – early Nov), FOMC 27–28 Oct, all expected. Any Apollo / orthopaedics separation news. The 10-Q (~late Oct). Investor day (8 Dec) and the next report (~Jan) are outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. Strong pharma, already priced in. Innovative Medicine is accelerating and the balance sheet absorbs talc easily. But the shares carry a premium multiple after a 27% run, the guide raise was small, MedTech is slowing and the market sold the print. JNJ's own regime (Volatile Chop) has been followed by roughly flat 21-day returns. Composite 6.7 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (23 Oct – 12 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 12 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 9 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The Q3 release came before the 13 Oct open; the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data. Balance-sheet figures are June 2026 because the Q3 balance sheet was not in the summary release.
The quarter confirmed what the 27% rally already assumed: J&J's new drugs are more than replacing Stelara. It did not add a reason to pay more. With MedTech soft and the profit guide barely moved, the next month is more likely to digest the gain than extend it.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (7.25). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.75 + 1.10 + 1.35 + 0.78 + 0.73 + 0.55 + 0.45 = 6.7 (6.71).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-print de-rating | Technical | 27% YTD gain; 23.8× multiple; small guide raise | Yes |
| MedTech peer prints | Competitive | International and EP demand read-across | Yes |
| Bond-regime headwind | Macro | Bonds near / mid in JNJ's worst regime | Possible |
| Drug-pricing policy | Macro | MFN pricing, tariffs | Possible |
| Orthopaedics separation | Financial | Price and timing of DePuy Synthes deal | Possible |
| 2027 LOE | Competitive | ~$4–4.5B revenue exposure | Structural |
| Talc participation | Financial | 95% claimant threshold | Structural |
| Acquisition dilution | Financial | Sail milestones on 2027 EPS | Structural |
Nothing in J&J's balance sheet or legal position can break inside a month. The live risks are valuation and read-across: a premium stock that just gapped down on a soft device quarter, with device peers and rates reporting in the window.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | 13 Oct 2026 | $25,399M | +0.5% | $0.09 (adj $2.59) | +2.4% | Pre-mkt ~−2.5% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | 15 Jul 2026 | $25,310M | n/a | $2.27 (adj $2.90) | +1.6% | −2.7% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | 14 Apr 2026 | $24,062M | n/a | $2.14 (adj $2.70) | +0.9% | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | 21 Jan 2026 | $24,564M | n/a | $2.10 (adj $2.46) | −0.1% | −0.1% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | 14 Oct 2025 | $23,993M | n/a | $2.12 (adj $2.80) | +1.5% | 0.0% |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | 16 Jul 2025 | $23,743M | n/a | $2.29 (adj $2.77) | +3.2% | +6.2% |
All reports come before the open; the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing; the pre-market indication was ~$257 at 07:20 ET. EPS surprise is on adjusted EPS against consensus. Revenue consensus was confirmed only for Q3 2026 (n/a otherwise). 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +6.0%, +1.9%, +11.2%, −4.0%, +6.1%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | n/c | 88% (7/8) | FY26 EPS and sales raised |
| JNJ (since 2021) | — | 96% (23/24) | One in-line miss (Jan 2026) |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 88% | PFE 8/8; MRK, ABBV 7/8; ABT 4/8 |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | ~late Jan 2027 | Outside the 10–30 day window |
| Investor day | 8 Dec 2026 | Enterprise business review; outside the window |
| Adj. operational sales growth | 6.4–6.8% | From 6.2–6.8% |
| Reported sales | $101.0–101.4B | Midpoint $101.2B (from $101.1B); +7.2–7.6% |
| Adjusted EPS | $11.05–11.15 | Midpoint $11.10 (from $11.04); +2.4–3.3% |
| Adj. operational EPS | $10.95–11.05 | Midpoint $11.00 (from $10.94) |
| Dividend | $1.34 / qtr | 2.03% yield; next ex-date ~late Nov |
The next J&J report is not in the window. The guide implies Q4 adjusted EPS of about $2.86–2.96 against $2.46 a year ago, so estimates rise slightly. The month's direction comes from how the market prices the MedTech slowdown, not from new company numbers.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Citi, RBC, Guggenheim | Bullish | Targets $303, $290 and $287; RBC flagged Q3 EPS below consensus but no guide upgrade expected |
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Stifel | Neutral | Hold, $260 target, below the current price |
| Sep 2026 | UBS, HSBC | Bullish | Buy, both raised to $320 |
| Late Sep 2026 | JPMorgan, BofA | Neutral | Neutral at $285 and $278; BofA warned Q3 EPS could trail the Street |
| Oct 2026 release | Management (Duato, Wolk) | Mixed | "Clearer line of sight to double-digit growth by the end of the decade"; Middle East budgets diverted to defence |
| Consensus | 22 analysts | Bullish | Buy; mean target $279.82, median $283.50, range $190–320 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus, Investing.com preview, TIKR, TipRanks and the company release, retrieved 13 Oct 2026. Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | Timothy Schmid, Officer | Option exercise + sale | 33,597 | $274.74 | $9.23M | Sold at the high; mild negative |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Jennifer Taubert, Officer | Option exercise + sale | 15,000 | $263.36 | $3.95M | Mild negative |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Joaquin Duato, CEO | Option exercise + sale | 123,291 | $261.00–262.00 | $32.20M | Largest 2026 sale; negative |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Elizabeth Forminard, Officer | Sale | 15,918 | $255.93–257.76 | $4.09M | Mild negative |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Joaquin Duato, CEO | Sale | 48,480 | $258.06–258.74 | $12.52M | Negative |
| 20 Jul 2026 | Vanessa Broadhurst, Officer | Option exercise + sale | 23,054 | $251.27 | $5.79M | Mild negative |
| 11 Jun 2026 | Kathryn Wengel, CTO | Option exercise + sale | 10,000 | $241.15 | $2.41M | Small; no signal |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed. Most sales followed exercises of options struck at $115–151, so they lock in long-held gains rather than signal a view. Still, about $70M was sold by seven officers between June and September, with no open-market purchases. Insider ownership is small relative to the $636B market cap.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Jan 2027 | J&J (expected) | Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance | No |
| 8 Dec 2026 | J&J | Enterprise business review (investor day); 2027 bridge and LOE detail | No |
| ~early Nov 2026 | Pfizer, AbbVie (expected) | Q3 results; pharma pricing and pipeline read | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; bond regimes are JNJ's most sensitive groups | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Merck, Boston Scientific, Stryker (expected) | Q3 results; device demand and international procedures | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | J&J 10-Q (expected) | Balance sheet, talc reserve and segment detail | Yes |
| Open-ended | Press reports | Apollo talks on DePuy Synthes orthopaedics (~$20B, Bloomberg, 11 Sep) | Possible |
| 13–15 Oct 2026 | Sell-side (expected) | Post-print target resets | Just before |
| 13 Oct 2026 | J&J release | Q3 beat ($25.40B / $2.59); FY26 guide raised to $11.10; MedTech +2.5% | No, sets the base |
| 27 Jul 2026 | J&J release | $5.5B proposed resolution of ~76,000 ovarian talc claims; first payment 2027 | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 13 Oct 2026 report date (23 Oct – 12 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Late Oct: Boston Scientific and Stryker on device demand, the direct test of J&J's MedTech slowdown. Late Oct: Merck and the 10-Q. 27–28 Oct: FOMC, through the bond regimes JNJ is most sensitive to. Early Nov: AbbVie and Pfizer on pharma pricing. Any time: an orthopaedics transaction.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | $263.73 | $635.6B | $99.34B | 6.40× | +5.9% | Buy · $279.82 | Mixed |
| AbbVie (ABBV) | $281.12 | $496.8B | $64.39B | 7.72× | +10.2% | Buy · $282.61 | Positive |
| Merck (MRK) | $145.45 | $358.9B | $66.57B | 5.39× | +5.1% | Buy · $158.64 | Positive |
| Abbott (ABT) | $101.82 | $176.2B | $46.58B | 3.78× | +13.0% | Strong Buy · $120.72 | Mixed |
| Pfizer (PFE) | $28.40 | $161.9B | $63.70B | 2.54× | +2.6% | Buy · $29.26 | Mixed |
| Peer median | — | $267.5B | $64.04B | 4.59× | +7.7% | — | — |
Prices at the 12 Oct 2026 close. JNJ figures come from its Q3 2026 release; TTM revenue is Q4 2025 through Q3 2026. Peer figures are vendor TTM to Mar–Jun 2026. Abbott is included as the closest MedTech comparable. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target; JNJ's mean predates post-print resets.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | $260 | — | 12 Oct 2026 | −1.4% | Hold | ► Maintained |
| Guggenheim | $287 | $287 | 7 Oct 2026 | +8.8% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| RBC Capital | $290 | $287 | 6 Oct 2026 | +10.0% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| Citigroup | $303 | $298 | 5 Oct 2026 | +14.9% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan | $285 | $270 | 29 Sep 2026 | +8.1% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| BofA Securities | $278 | $263 | 29 Sep 2026 | +5.4% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| HSBC | $320 | $290 | 10 Sep 2026 | +21.3% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| UBS | $320 | $280 | 2 Sep 2026 | +21.3% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Wells Fargo | $282 | $272 | 3 Aug 2026 | +6.9% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
Implied return is measured against the $263.73 close on 12 Oct 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log; Stifel from the Investing.com preview; BofA's prior target from its July action ($263). Every action shown since August is a raise or maintain; no post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $263.73 |
| Consensus target | $279.82 |
| Median target | $283.50 |
| High target | $320.00 |
| Low target | $190.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +6.1% |
| Implied downside to low | −28.0% |
| Analysts contributing | 22 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 13 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. TipRanks shows a $288.94 average; at the ~$257 pre-market level the consensus implies about +9%.
| $190 |
| $280 |
| $284 |
| $320 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | $23,743M | +8.4% | ~+5.8% | $2.29 | 67.9% | $8,806Me | 37.1% | Beat | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | $23,993M | +1.1% | ~+6.8% | $2.12 | 69.6% | $9,278Me | 38.7% | Beat | 0.0% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | $24,564M | +2.4% | ~+9.1% | $2.10 | 67.6% | $7,956Me | 32.4% | In line | −0.1% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | $24,062M | −2.0% | ~+9.9% | $2.14 | 66.3% | $8,734Me | 36.3% | Beat | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | $25,310M | +5.2% | +6.6% | $2.27 | 68.2% | $9,021Me | 35.6% | Beat | −2.7% |
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | $25,399M | +0.4% | +5.9% | $0.09 | 68.1% | n/d | n/d | Beat | Pending |
| FY26 guide | ~$101.2B | — | +7.4% rep. | $11.10 adj | — | — | — | Raised | — |
Reports come before the open, so the reaction is same-day. Gross margin is reported. Adj. EBITDA marked e is vendor normalised EBITDA; Q3 2026 is not yet available (n/d) and GAAP figures are distorted by the $5.5B talc charge. YoY marked "~" uses prior-year quarters from earlier releases.
Adjusted net margin is adjusted net earnings over sales (derived from adjusted EPS × diluted shares where not reported). It is used instead of GAAP operating margin because Q3 2026 GAAP earnings are almost zero after the talc charge. The Q3 dip to 25.0% reflects higher R&D from the Firefly and Sail deals.
| Metric | 28 Jun 2026 | 28 Dec 2025 | 29 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.11 | 1.5–3.0 healthy · below, normal for large pharma |
| Quick ratio | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.86 | ≥1.0 healthy · below |
| Cash ratio | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.49 | Cash and investments $20.8B against $54.9B of current liabilities |
Vendor quarterly and annual balance sheets; the Q3 2026 balance sheet was not in the summary release and arrives with the 10-Q. The Q3 talc charge raises liabilities but not cash outflow before 2027.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ (Jun 26) | 1.09 | −$28.3B | Adequate |
| AbbVie (Jun 26) | 0.81 | −$64.3B | Tight |
| Merck (Jun 26) | 1.32 | −$46.8B | Adequate |
| Abbott (Mar 26) | 1.38 | −$27.1B | Adequate |
| Pfizer (Jun 26) | 1.27 | −$51.8B | Adequate |
| Peer median | 1.30 | −$49.3B | — |
| Metric | 28 Jun 2026 | 28 Dec 2025 | 29 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.51 | Lower is safer · moderate |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.20 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | n/d (TTM) | 26.4× | 28.1× | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | ~2.18×e | 2.59× | n/d | >1.25 healthy · passed; OCF over interest plus current debt |
Debt: $49.0B (Jun 26; $11.7B current), $47.9B (Dec 25), $36.6B (Dec 24). Coverage is vendor operating income over interest expense (FY25 $0.97B, FY24 $0.76B). The Jun 2026 DSCR uses TTM operating cash flow of $27.6B (Q3 2025 – Q2 2026, vendor) against ~$12.7B of interest and current debt (derived).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 68.1% | 67.6% | 69.6% | 67.9% | 69.1% | → |
| Operating margin | 0.1% (pre-tax) | n/d | 29.6% | 27.2% | 23.9% | Distorted by talc |
| Net margin | 0.8% | 16.2% | 21.5% | 28.5% | 15.8% | ▼ (charges) |
| Adj. net margin | 25.0% | ~26.1%e | 28.3% | ~27.8%e | n/d | ▼ |
| Return on assets | 0.1% (q) | 8.2% | 2.7% (q) | 14.1% | 8.1% | ▼ |
| Return on equity | 0.2% (q) | 19.6% | 6.5% (q) | 35.0% | 20.1% | ▼ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 16.2% × 0.50 × 2.40 | — | 28.5% × 0.50 × 2.39 | — | Margin-driven, volatile with charges |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. GAAP results swing with litigation charges and gains: FY25 net income ($26.8B) included large one-off items, FY24 ($14.1B) talc charges, and Q3 2026 a $5.52B talc charge plus $0.34B of IPR&D impairments. Adjusted net margin is the cleaner trend and is drifting down as R&D rises. TTM and FY25 adjusted margins are derived from adjusted EPS × diluted shares.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ (TTM) | 67.6% | 29.2% | 16.2% | 35.6% | 19.6% | 2 of 5 |
| AbbVie | 72.8% | 40.0% | 9.8% | 47.8% | n/m | 1 of 5 |
| Merck | 75.9% | −0.2% | 4.8% | 43.4% | 7.0% | 5 of 5 |
| Abbott | 56.8% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 25.1% | 10.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Pfizer | 74.7% | 27.9% | 6.8% | 39.9% | 5.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Peer median | 73.8% | 21.3% | 8.3% | 41.7% | 7.0% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures, and Merck's is depressed by acquired IPR&D. JNJ's operating margin and adj. EBITDA margin are vendor figures through Q2 2026. Rank is by operating margin. AbbVie's ROE is not meaningful (negative equity).
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.50 | 0.50 (FY25) | Stable |
| Revenue per employee | ~$719k | ~$682k (FY25) | On ~138,200 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY, adjusted) | −7.5% | — | GAAP −95.8% on the talc charge |
| EPS growth (FY26 guide, adjusted) | +2.4% to +3.3% | — | After Firefly / Sail dilution |
| Dividend yield | 2.03% | ~2.7% (Oct 2025) | $5.36 a year; 64 consecutive annual increases |
| FCF yield | ~3.2% | ~3.0% (FY25) | TTM FCF ~$20.2B (derived) on the current market cap |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 0.50 | $719k | ~138,200 | −7.5% (adj) | 2.03% | 3 of 5 |
| AbbVie | 0.48 | $1.13M | 57,000 | +285% | 2.50% | 2 of 5 |
| Merck | 0.51 | $912k | 73,000 | n/d | 2.34% | 4 of 5 |
| Abbott | 0.42 | $382k | 122,000 | −48% | 2.53% | 1 of 5 |
| Pfizer | 0.32 | $849k | 75,000 | n/d | 6.08% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.45 | $881k | 74,000 | n/c | 2.52% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY GAAP figure, distorted by IPR&D and one-offs; Merck and Pfizer were not available. JNJ's TTM FCF is FY25 FCF ($19.3B) plus YTD 2026 (~$15.1B) less YTD 2025 ($14.2B).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innovative Medicine sales | $16,757M | ~$15,559M | +7.7% | +8.0% adj. operational; Stelara drag ~690 bps |
| MedTech sales | $8,642M | ~$8,431M | +2.5% | EP, Shockwave, contact lenses, trauma grew |
| Oncology | $7,602M | $6,529M | +16.4% | Darzalex $4,239M (+15.4%); Carvykti $710M (+35.5%) |
| Immunology | $4,221M | $4,168M | +1.3% | Tremfya $2,396M (+68.3%); Stelara $716M (−54.4%) |
| Lung (Rybrevant / Lazcluze) | $320M | $198M | +62.3% | SC Rybrevant rollout |
| Erleada | $1,023M | $936M | +9.4% | Prostate cancer |
| Imbruvica | $563M | $695M | −18.8% | Competitive erosion |
| US / International sales | $14,959M / $10,440M | ~$13,712M / ~$10,286M | +9.1% / +1.5% | International operational +1.8% |
| R&D expense | $4,652M | ~$3,672M | +26.7% | Firefly Bio and Sail Biomedicines deals |
Year-ago segment, regional and R&D figures are approximate (back-solved from stated growth rates, marked ~). R&D growth is coloured as a negative because it drove the adjusted EPS decline.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM (GAAP) | 40.0× | 24.8× on TTM adjusted EPS $10.65; GAAP distorted by talc |
| P/E on FY26 guide ($11.10 adj) | 23.8× | Peer forward median 16.2×; ~23× NTM (TIKR) |
| Price / book | 7.5× | Equity $85.0B (Jun 26) |
| Price / sales TTM | 6.40× | Peer median 4.59× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~19.0× | Vendor, through Q2 2026; peers 15.8× |
| PEG | 2.82 | Vendor; high against ~3% FY26 EPS growth |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | ~3.2% / 2.03% | Dividend covered ~1.6× by FCF |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | $263.73 | $635.6B | $99.34B | 6.40× | +39% |
| AbbVie | $281.12 | $496.8B | $64.39B | 7.72× | +68% |
| Merck | $145.45 | $358.9B | $66.57B | 5.39× | +17% |
| Abbott | $101.82 | $176.2B | $46.58B | 3.78× | −18% |
| Pfizer | $28.40 | $161.9B | $63.70B | 2.54× | −45% |
| Peer median | — | $267.5B | $64.04B | 4.59× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | $6.60 | 40.0× | +5.9% | 2.82 | Premium; 23.8× on adjusted guide |
| AbbVie | $3.54 | 79.4× | +10.2% | 0.54 | GAAP inflated by IPR&D; 17.3× forward |
| Merck | $1.26 | n/m | +5.1% | 2.70 | Keytruda cliff discount; 15.6× forward |
| Abbott | $3.03 | 33.6× | +13.0% | 1.90 | MedTech comparable; −19% YTD |
| Pfizer | $0.76 | 37.4× | +2.6% | 12.89 | Cheapest; 9.8× forward |
| Peer median | — | 37.4× | +7.7% | 2.30 | — |
J&J is priced as the quality compounder of the group: 23.8× this year's earnings against roughly 16× for its peers. That premium is earned by the pharma pipeline, but it means the stock has little valuation support inside a month if MedTech keeps disappointing.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 19 Aug 2025 – 12 Oct 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 12 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 13 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.1055 | 0.0808 | 0.0925 | −0.1252 | 0.2543 | 8.3 | Mildly mean-reverting. Fell from +0.236 in May to negative on 28 Jul, near the bottom of its one-year range |
| Volatility | 0.1048 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 60.2 | Normal to elevated. Up from −0.126 on 2 Oct after the pre-print slide; the print is likely to push it higher |
Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 6 consecutive sessions (since 5 Oct). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the quadrant call is not provisional. As of 12 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 36.0% | Moves that extend; most of the 2025–26 rally |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 14.2% | Whipsaw; since late July, and again now |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 4.5% | Brief, late Sep 2026 |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 45.3% | Low-volatility grind higher; most of the window |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 6 | Prints and pipeline news |
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 5 | Volatility fades; trend continues |
| Volatile trend → Volatile chop | 1 | 28 Jul: Persistency turns negative |
| Volatile chop ↔ Quiet range | 2 | 16 Sep in, 5 Oct back out |
Over the year, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Drift had a median of +6.0% (70% positive, 131 observations) and from Volatile Trend +2.0% (73%). From Volatile Chop the median was +0.5% (55% positive, 33 observations). Unconditionally the median was +2.5% (69% positive), in a stock that rose 38% over the window. The current regime has been the least rewarding. As of 12 Oct 2026.
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Negative Persistency means recent moves have tended to reverse. For the next 10–30 days that cuts both ways: a pre-market drop may be partly retraced, but rallies have also faded since July. These statistics describe 19 Aug 2025 – 12 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.059 | 0.3 | −0.174 | −0.237 | 0.433 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.034 | 0.1 | −0.009 | −0.242 | 0.383 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.024 | 0.1 | −0.111 | −0.315 | 0.244 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.018 | 0.0 | 0.048 | −0.231 | 0.293 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.015 | 0.0 | −0.099 | −0.360 | 0.349 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.086 | 0.7 | 0.061 | −0.542 | 0.479 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.022 | 0.0 | −0.107 | −0.508 | 0.561 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.050 | 0.2 | −0.201 | −0.327 | 0.273 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of JNJ against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 14 Oct 2021 – 12 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. No driver explains more than 1% of variance. Market Driver 1's rolling reading (−0.174) is near the bottom of its range (−0.237). Drivers as of 12 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00004 | 0.058 | 31.6% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.02613 | −0.085 | 68.4% |
JNJ is an idiosyncratic name that trades with the health-care group, not with the market. Over the past year it has moved slightly against the S&P 500, with correlations of 0.49–0.50 to Merck and AbbVie. For the next 10–30 days an index hedge does not offset it; company news and the pharma and device peers decide the month.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against JNJ daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Both have oscillated within roughly ±0.5 without a stable sign. Market Driver 1 is −0.17 and Sector Driver 1 +0.06 on the latest readings, neither a material link. As of 12 Oct 2026.
JNJ daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 9 Oct 2026, 1,168 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.5% | +47.9% | +78.6% | 19.4% | 4.06 | 63.5% | +6.01% | −2.51% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 299 | 25.5% | +8.2% | +6.9% | 16.7% | 0.41 | 53.2% | +4.39% | −3.73% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 287 | 24.5% | +4.9% | +4.3% | 17.5% | 0.25 | 46.3% | +5.90% | −4.06% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 416 | 35.5% | −9.0% | −5.5% | 18.1% | −0.31 | 50.0% | +4.85% | −7.90% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 177 | 15.1% | +49.0% | +76.5% | 18.8% | 4.07 | 60.5% | +3.92% | −2.85% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 409 | 34.9% | +7.4% | +4.5% | 18.5% | 0.24 | 51.1% | +6.01% | −7.90% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 354 | 30.2% | +4.0% | +2.8% | 17.5% | 0.16 | 48.3% | +5.90% | −4.06% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 232 | 19.8% | −8.2% | −8.8% | 16.2% | −0.55 | 52.2% | +4.46% | −3.73% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 444 | 37.9% | +57.3% | +29.3% | 19.0% | 1.54 | 53.2% | +6.01% | −4.20% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 142 | 12.1% | +8.6% | +15.8% | 17.3% | 0.91 | 59.2% | +4.46% | −3.77% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 341 | 29.1% | −3.1% | −2.3% | 18.9% | −0.12 | 50.4% | +5.90% | −7.90% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 245 | 20.9% | −7.7% | −7.9% | 14.1% | −0.56 | 47.3% | +4.39% | −2.62% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded JNJ return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 9 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for JNJ | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +8.2% | 0.41 | 4.37 | 26 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −8.2% | −0.55 | 4.62 | 26 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −7.7% | −0.56 | 2.10 | 20 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +27.4% | 0.86 | 3.79 | 99 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +23.9% | 2.36 | 2.96 | 14 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −2.2% | −0.10 | 1.13 | 75 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | −3.1% | −0.21 | 1.67 | 20 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +3.9% | 0.21 | 2.07 | 19 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +55.8% | 1.47 | 1.99 | 47 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +11.1% | 1.52 | 2.20 | 29 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +22.4% | 1.01 | 3.80 | 110 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −19.2% | −1.61 | 3.35 | 14 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −9.9% | −0.34 | 3.89 | 16 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −4.9% | −0.21 | 2.65 | 9 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning JNJ is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 9 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 9 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 9 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 26 | J&J reports Q3 2026 results, raises 2026 guidance; adjusted EPS $2.59, sales $25.4B (company release) | Positive |
| 13 Oct 26 | J&J falls pre-market despite raised earnings guidance (Seeking Alpha) | Negative |
| 13 Oct 26 | Stock falls despite beat: slower MedTech, international weakness, Abiomed (TipRanks) | Negative |
| 13 Oct 26 | GAAP EPS $0.09 on talc charge, Firefly Bio and Sail Biomedicines deals (StockTitan) | Mixed |
| 12 Oct 26 | ICOTYDE two-year data strengthens the growth story before Q3 (TradingKey) | Positive |
| 12 Oct 26 | Stifel holds at $260 ahead of the print | Neutral |
| 8 Oct 26 | Stock fell ~6% in four days before earnings; $4B 2027 patent cliff in focus (TIKR) | Negative |
| 5–7 Oct 26 | Citi ($303), RBC ($290) and Guggenheim ($287) reiterate Buy ratings | Positive |
| 29 Sep 26 | BofA warns Q3 EPS may trail the Street; JPMorgan raises to $285 at Neutral | Mixed |
| 11 Sep 26 | Apollo in talks to buy DePuy Synthes orthopaedics for near $20B (Bloomberg) | Positive |
| 3 Sep 26 | Stock closes at a 52-week high of $278.43 | Positive |
| 27 Jul 26 | J&J proposes $5.5B resolution of ~76,000 ovarian talc claims; shares +2% (company, Zero Hedge) | Positive |
12 rows, newest first. Sources as listed; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "Stelara cliff and talc overhang" (2025) to "pharma growth engine with a MedTech problem" (2026). The Q3 print reinforced both halves.
| Field | Johnson & Johnson | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Johnson & Johnson | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: JNJ · listed 1944; founded 1886 | All peers NYSE-listed |
| Domicile | United States (New Brunswick, New Jersey) | All peers US-based |
| Sector / industry | Health Care · Pharmaceuticals (Innovative Medicine) and Medical Devices (MedTech) | Abbott is the only peer with a large device business |
| Market cap | $635.6B (2,409.9M shares × $263.73) | Largest in the set; 1.3× AbbVie |
| Employees | ~138,200 | Abbott 122,000; Pfizer 75,000 |
| TTM revenue | $99.34B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Largest in the set; 1.5× Merck |
| Revenue model | Innovative Medicine (66% of Q3: oncology, immunology, neuroscience) and MedTech (34%: cardiovascular, orthopaedics, surgery, vision) | Peers are mostly pure pharma |
| Key differentiators | Darzalex and the myeloma franchise; Tremfya and Icotyde in immunology; Shockwave, Abiomed and electrophysiology in devices; AAA balance sheet | AbbVie leads in Skyrizi / Rinvoq; Merck in Keytruda |
| CIK | 0000200406 | — |
| Website | jnj.com | — |
The 13 October print beat on sales and adjusted EPS, raised the full-year guide to $11.10 and showed Innovative Medicine growing 7.7% through the Stelara cliff. It also showed MedTech at +2.5%, international sales at +1.5% and adjusted EPS down 7.5% on higher R&D, and the shares traded ~2.5% lower before the open. At 23.8× this year's earnings after a 27% rally, JNJ has little valuation support, but its balance sheet, negative market correlation and history of post-print recoveries limit the downside. The view turns bullish if device peers report stable demand or an orthopaedics deal is announced on good terms and JNJ retakes $270. It turns bearish if Boston Scientific or Stryker confirm the international slowdown and JNJ closes below $250.