Close 13 Oct 2026
$51.43
Q3 2026 sales rose 15.5% to $2.46B and EPS of $0.35 beat $0.34, with operating margin up to 21.5%. But gross margin slipped 40 bps to 44.8%, 2026 capex was set at $310–330M (from $231M in 2025), and the shares fell about 4.5% pre-market to ~$49, from near a 52-week high. At 41× trailing earnings and above the $49.45 consensus target, FAST is fully valued. Over the next 10–30 days the stock trades in a quiet, range-bound regime that has historically been followed by gains; the October sales report in early November decides whether the dip is bought.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $51.43 on 13 Oct, 1.8% below the $52.38 high of 11 Aug and +28.2% YTD. Traded ~$52.5 before the release, then fell to ~$49.0–49.3 pre-market (about −4.5%). The stock has fallen on the day after each of the last four prints. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Q3 sales $2,463.3M, +15.5% on the same 64 selling days, above the $2.44B consensus. Growth has risen from +8.6% in Q2 2025, with one pause in Q4 2025. Manufacturing +17.2% (heavy +20.2%), non-residential construction +12.0%. Pricing contributed ~240 bps. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Operating margin 21.5%, up from 20.7%, on operating leverage. Gross margin 44.8% against 45.3% a year ago but above the ~44.5% consensus and Q2's 44.6%; price/cost was a ~30 bp drag, tariff timing a ~20 bp help. Net income $401.6M (+19.7%). | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 41.5× TTM EPS and 36.7× forward against a 24.6× peer forward median. P/S 6.50× against 2.18×; EV/EBITDA ~28.7× against 19.0×. The price is above the $49.45 consensus target. | Bearish |
| Platform KPIs | Digital footprint 61.4% of sales (+16.1% DSR). Customer sites spending $50k+ a month rose to 3,288 from 2,771 and generated $1.46B. Contract sales +18.8% (76.5% of sales). FMI devices installed 143,878 (+7.4%), but the 2026 signing goal was trimmed to 27,000–29,000. | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Cash $211.9M against $100.0M of debt; current ratio 3.93. Operating cash flow $421.6M (105% of net income). Receivables rose to $1.62B from $1.25B at year-end. 2026 net capex guide $310–330M for the Atlanta hub, automation and IT. | Bullish |
| Regime state | Q3 Quiet Range: Persistency −0.183 (19th percentile), Volatility −0.263 (23rd percentile), held 19 sessions since 17 Sep. Not on a boundary. As of 13 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 85.9% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 explains 14% (correlation −0.374). One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.24 (beta 0.48) and with the industrials fund 0.48. Company news decides the month. As of 13 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | The post-print sell-off extends. After the last four prints the shares fell on the day (−7.5%, −2.6%, −6.9%, −2.8%); twice they kept falling over the next 21 sessions. A soft October daily-sales figure (~5 Nov) or a weak ISM reading would hit a stock priced at 37× forward earnings. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Ex-dividend 28 Oct. Wesco, Applied Industrial and Grainger Q3 (late Oct – early Nov), ISM manufacturing (2 Nov), FOMC 27–28 Oct and Fastenal's October sales report (~5 Nov), all expected. The 10-Q (~late Oct). The next quarterly report (~mid Jan) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. Solid quarter, full price. Growth is accelerating, margins expanded and the balance sheet is pristine. But the stock trades at a large premium to peers and above its consensus target, gross margin slipped and capex is rising, so the market sold the print. The quiet regime has historically been followed by gains, which argues against a deep slide. Composite 7.4 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (24 Oct – 13 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The Q3 release came before the 14 Oct open; the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data. DSR = daily sales rate.
Fastenal did what a quality compounder is paid to do: it grew faster, widened its operating margin and converted earnings to cash. The trouble is the price, which already sat above the analysts' targets. The pre-market drop resets some of that premium; the October sales number decides whether investors step back in.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (8.25). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.13 + 0.80 + 1.62 + 0.96 + 0.83 + 0.65 + 0.40 = 7.4 (7.38).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| October sales report | Competitive | Growth-rate read on a 37× multiple | Yes |
| Post-print drift | Technical | Four straight negative reactions | Yes |
| ISM / FOMC | Macro | Manufacturing demand signal | Possible |
| Peer prints | Competitive | Grainger, Wesco, Applied, MSC | Possible |
| Tariff / price-cost | Macro | Gross-margin swing | Possible |
| Industrial cycle | Macro | Manufacturing downturn | Structural |
| Capex return | Financial | $310–330M 2026 spend | Structural |
| Valuation de-rating | Financial | 37× forward multiple | Structural |
Fastenal's balance sheet and business carry little risk inside a month. The live risk is a growth-rate disappointment landing on a premium multiple, and the first test is the October sales report at the end of the window.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | 14 Oct 2026 | $2,463M | +0.9% | $0.35 | +3.3% | Pre-mkt ~−4.5% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | 14 Jul 2026 | $2,387M | n/a | $0.33 | +1.3% | −2.8% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | 13 Apr 2026 | $2,202M | n/a | $0.30 | +0.7% | −6.9% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | 20 Jan 2026 | $2,027M | n/a | $0.26 | +0.5% | −2.6% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | 13 Oct 2025 | $2,133M | n/a | $0.29 | −2.2% | −7.5% |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | 14 Jul 2025 | $2,080M | n/a | $0.29 | +7.3% | +4.2% |
All reports come before the open; the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing; the pre-market indication was ~$49.0–49.3 at 07:30 ET. EPS surprise uses unrounded consensus ($0.339 for Q3 2026). Revenue consensus confirmed only for Q3 2026. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +7.5%, −2.5%, +8.4%, −5.4%, +14.2%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | n/c | 75% (6/8) | No EPS guide; capex $310–330M |
| FAST (since 2021) | — | 83% (20/24) | Small beats; four small misses, latest Oct 2025 |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 63% | AIT 7/8; MSM, WCC 5/8; GWW 4/8 |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | ~mid Jan 2027 | Outside the 10–30 day window |
| October sales report | ~5 Nov 2026 | Inside the window; monthly DSR |
| Revenue / EPS guidance | None | Fastenal does not guide sales or EPS |
| 2026 net capex | $310–330M | From $230.6M in 2025; Atlanta hub, automation, IT |
| 2026 FMI signings | 27,000–29,000 MEUs | Lowered from 28,000–30,000; 21,428 YTD |
| Tax rate | ~24.6% | Ongoing |
| Dividend | Quarterly | Ex-dividend 28 Oct (inside the window) |
Fastenal gives no earnings guidance, so its monthly sales reports do that job. The October figure (~5 Nov) is the only company data inside the window, and the market will treat it as the guide for Q4.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 (post-Q2) | Morgan Stanley | Neutral | Equal-Weight; target raised to $52 from $48 |
| Jul 2026 (post-Q2) | Barclays, DA Davidson | Bearish | Equal-Weight / Neutral at $46, below the current price |
| Jul 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Bullish | Initiated at Buy, $55 target |
| Dec 2025 – Apr 2026 | Jefferies, Baird | Bullish | Jefferies upgraded to Buy ($52); Baird Outperform ($50) |
| Oct 2026 release | Management | Mixed | Strong demand; heavier capex for the hub network and IT; FMI goal trimmed |
| Consensus | 13 analysts | Neutral | Hold; mean target $49.45, median $49.00, range $39.90–60 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus, Investing.com, company release, retrieved 14 Oct 2026. Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026 | Donnalee Papenfuss, Officer | Option exercise + sale | 9,258 | $51.38–51.42 | $475.8k | Near the high; mild negative |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Michael Ancius, Director | Option exercise + sale | 3,000 | $52.00 | $156.0k | Small; no signal |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Rita Heise, Director | Option exercise + sale | 34,964 | $50.05 | $1.75M | Mild negative |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Michael Ancius, Director | Option exercise + sale | 3,000 | $49.00 | $147.0k | Small; no signal |
| 5 Mar 2026 | Reyne Wisecup, Director | Option exercise + sale | 36,920 | $47.34 | $1.75M | Mild negative |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Scott Satterlee, Director | Option exercise + sale | 15,964 | $44.19 | $705.5k | Small; no signal |
| Q3 2026 | Company | Buyback / dividends | n/d | n/d | $30.2M / $298.2M | Dividends dominate returns |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed; company returns from the Q3 release. All sales followed exercises of options struck at $13–19, so they lock in long-held gains. About $5.0M was sold in 2026, with no open-market purchases. Insider sales are small relative to the $59B market cap.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~mid Jan 2027 | Fastenal (expected) | Q4 2026 results | No |
| ~5 Nov 2026 | Fastenal (expected) | October monthly sales report (daily sales rate) | Yes |
| ~early Nov 2026 | Grainger (expected) | Q3 results; the closest-correlated peer (0.55) | Yes |
| 2 Nov 2026 | ISM (expected) | October manufacturing PMI | Yes |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Fastenal | Ex-dividend date | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; rate path for industrial demand | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Wesco, Applied Industrial (expected) | Q3 results; electrical and MRO demand read | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Fastenal 10-Q (expected) | Segment and working-capital detail | Yes |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Fastenal release | Q3 sales +15.5% ($2.46B), EPS $0.35; GM 44.8%; 2026 capex $310–330M | No, sets the base |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Market | Stock closes at a 52-week high of $52.38 | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 14 Oct 2026 report date (24 Oct – 13 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Late Oct: Wesco and Applied Industrial on MRO and electrical demand, plus the 10-Q. 27–28 Oct: FOMC. 28 Oct: ex-dividend. 2 Nov: ISM manufacturing. Early Nov: Grainger's Q3. ~5 Nov: Fastenal's October sales, the most important data point of the month.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | $51.43 | $59.0B | $9.08B | 6.50× | +15.5% | Hold · $49.45 | Mixed |
| W.W. Grainger (GWW) | $1,325.10 | $62.4B | $18.84B | 3.31× | +10.3% | Hold · $1,331.64 | Positive |
| Wesco (WCC) | $362.94 | $17.7B | $25.01B | 0.71× | +13.0% | Strong Buy · $403.45 | Positive |
| Applied Industrial (AIT) | $332.85 | $12.2B | $4.97B | 2.46× | +10.4% | Strong Buy · $400.00 | Positive |
| MSC Industrial (MSM) | $132.17 | ~$7.4B | $3.91B | ~1.89× | +7.8% | Hold · $133.63 | Positive |
| Peer median | — | $15.0B | $11.90B | 2.18× | +10.4% | — | — |
Prices at the 13 Oct 2026 close. FAST revenue is TTM to Q3 2026 from its releases. Peer figures are vendor TTM to May–Jun 2026. MSC's market cap is derived from vendor EV less net debt (marked ~). FAST trades above its consensus target; Grainger and MSC trade at theirs. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | $52 | $48 | 16 Jul 2026 | +1.1% | Equal-Weight | ▲ Raised |
| Barclays | $46 | $47 | 16 Jul 2026 | −10.6% | Equal-Weight | ▼ Lowered |
| DA Davidson | $46 | $46 | 15 Jul 2026 | −10.6% | Neutral | ► Maintained |
| Rothschild & Co | $55 | — | 13 Jul 2026 | +6.9% | Buy (initiation) | ► Initiated |
| Morgan Stanley | $48 | $45 | 8 Jul 2026 | −6.7% | Equal-Weight | ▲ Raised |
| Barclays | $47 | $46 | 6 Jul 2026 | −8.6% | Equal-Weight | ▲ Raised |
| Baird | $50 | $52 | 14 Apr 2026 | −2.8% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Jefferies | $52 | $45 | 15 Dec 2025 | +1.1% | Buy (upgrade) | ▲ Raised |
Implied return is measured against the $51.43 close on 13 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Five of the eight targets sit below the price. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing; at the ~$49 pre-market level the consensus mean implies about +1%.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $51.43 |
| Consensus target | $49.45 |
| Median target | $49.00 |
| High target | $60.00 |
| Low target | $39.90 |
| Implied upside to consensus | −3.8% |
| Implied downside to low | −22.4% |
| Analysts contributing | 13 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 14 Oct 2026, before post-print resets.
| $39.90 |
| $49.45 |
| $49.00 |
| $60.00 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | $2,080.3M | +6.2% | ~+8.6% | $0.29 | 45.3% | $483.9Me | 23.3% | Beat | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | $2,133.3M | +2.5% | ~+11.7% | $0.29 | 45.3% | $487.2Me | 22.8% | Miss | −7.5% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | $2,027.4M | −5.0% | ~+11.1% | $0.26 | 44.3% | $430.0Me | 21.2% | In line | −2.6% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | $2,201.7M | +8.6% | ~+12.4% | $0.30 | 44.6% | $493.7Me | 22.4% | In line | −6.9% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | $2,386.9M | +8.4% | +14.7% | $0.33 | 44.6% | $548.8Me | 23.0% | Beat | −2.8% |
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | $2,463.3M | +3.2% | +15.5% | $0.35 | 44.8% | ~$578Me | ~23.5% | Beat | Pending |
Reports come before the open, so the reaction is same-day. Gross margin is reported. Adj. EBITDA marked e is vendor EBITDA; Q3 2026 is operating income plus ~$47M of D&A (derived from recent quarters). YoY marked "~" uses prior-year quarters from earlier releases and is on reported sales; quarterly selling days vary. "In line" marks beats under 1%. Fastenal gives no sales or EPS guidance, so no guide row is shown.
Operating margin is vendor operating income over sales for Q2 2025 – Q2 2026 and the reported 21.5% for Q3 2026. The Q4 dip is seasonal (fewer selling days, year-end costs). Margin is back at a two-year high on operating leverage despite lower gross margin.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 3.93 | 4.85 | 4.67 | 1.5–3.0 healthy · above; very liquid |
| Quick ratio | 2.11 | 2.41 | 2.28 | ≥1.0 healthy · passed |
| Cash ratio | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.37 | Cash $211.9M against $974.2M of current liabilities |
Sep 2026 and Dec 2025 from the Q3 release; Dec 2024 is vendor data. Current liabilities rose to $974M from $716M, partly timing of payables and accruals.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAST (30 Sep 26) | 3.93 | +$0.11B | Strongest |
| Grainger (Jun 26) | 2.81 | −$2.21B | Strong |
| Applied Industrial (Jun 26) | 2.58 | −$0.36B | Strong |
| Wesco (Jun 26) | 2.09 | −$5.90B | Levered |
| MSC Industrial (May 26) | 1.55 | −$0.48B | Adequate |
| Peer median | 2.33 | −$1.35B | — |
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.13 | Lower is safer · negligible |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.10 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | n/d (TTM) | 267× | 207× | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | n/d | 41.5× | n/d | >1.25 healthy · passed |
Debt $100.0M (Sep 26) and $125.0M (Dec 25) from the release; Dec 2024 is vendor total debt ($485.4M), which includes lease liabilities. Coverage is operating income over interest expense (FY25 $6.2M). FY25 DSCR is operating cash flow ($1.30B) over interest plus current debt.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 44.8% | 44.6% | 45.3% | 45.0% | 45.1% | ▼ |
| Operating margin | 21.5% | 20.5% | 20.7% | 20.2% | 20.0% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 16.3% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.3% | 15.2% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~23.5%e | ~22.6%e | 22.8% | 22.4% | 22.4% | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 7.3% (q) | 26.9% | ~6.7% (q) | 25.8% | 25.1% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 9.7% (q) | 35.0% | ~8.8% (q) | 33.3% | 33.0% | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 15.6% × 1.72 × 1.30 | — | 15.3% × 1.68 × 1.29 | — | High turnover, low leverage |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. Q3 2025 ROA and ROE are approximate because the Sep 2025 balance sheet total was not in the release (marked ~). TTM figures sum Q4 2025 – Q3 2026. ROE above 30% comes from margin and asset turnover, not leverage.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST (TTM) | 44.6% | 20.5% | 15.6% | ~22.6% | 35.0% | 1 of 5 |
| Grainger | 39.4% | 16.1% | 9.9% | 17.1% | 46.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Applied Industrial | 30.3% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 22.4% | 3 of 5 |
| MSC Industrial | 40.8% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Wesco | 21.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 14.3% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 34.9% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 19.4% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures. Rank is by operating margin.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 1.72 | 1.68 (FY25) | Rising with sales |
| Revenue per employee | ~$368k | n/d | On 24,679 absolute headcount (21,749 FTE) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | +19.8% | — | Nine-month EPS +16.5% to $0.98 |
| Sales growth (nine months) | +14.2% | +8.7% (FY25) | $7.05B YTD |
| Dividend yield | 1.87% | — | Q3 dividends $298.2M (74% of net income) |
| FCF yield | ~1.8% (FY25) | ~1.6% (FY24) | FY25 FCF $1.05B on the current market cap |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 1.72 | $368k | 24,679 | +19.8% | 1.87% | 1 of 5 |
| Grainger | 1.96 | $853k | 22,100 | +18.3% | 0.75% | 4 of 5 |
| Wesco | 1.40 | $1.19M | 21,000 | +19.8% | 0.55% | 2 of 5 |
| Applied Industrial | 1.65 | $720k | 6,900 | +10.0% | 0.61% | 3 of 5 |
| MSC Industrial | 1.57 | $552k | 7,077 | +41.4% | 2.63% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 1.61 | $787k | 14,039 | +19.1% | 0.68% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure. Fastenal's branch and onsite model employs more people per dollar of sales than catalogue-led peers.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily sales | $38.5M | $33.3M | +15.5% | 64 selling days in both quarters; pricing ~+240 bps |
| Manufacturing (DSR) | — | — | +17.2% | Heavy +20.2%; other +13.2% |
| Non-residential construction (DSR) | — | — | +12.0% | Other end markets +12.4% |
| Contract sales share | 76.5% | — | +18.8% DSR | Non-contract +7.8% |
| $50k+/month customer sites | 3,288 | 2,771 | +18.7% | $1,456.6M of sales from these sites |
| Digital footprint | 61.4% | — | +16.1% DSR | eBusiness 28.8% of sales (+14.8%) |
| FMI installed devices (MEUs) | 143,878 | ~133,970 | +7.4% | Q3 signings 7,484; FMI sales $1,121.3M (+14.6%) |
| Total customer sites | 90,759 | 98,823 | −8.2% | Mix shifting to fewer, larger accounts |
| Operating cash flow | $421.6M | $386.9M | +9.0% | 105% of net income; net capex $71.8M |
From the Q3 2026 release. Year-ago FMI installations are back-solved from the stated growth (marked ~).
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 41.5× | TTM EPS $1.24; peer median 31.2× |
| P/E forward (vendor) | 36.7× | Peer forward median 24.6×; Grainger 26.0× |
| Price / book | 14.2× | Equity $4.15B |
| Price / sales TTM | 6.50× | Peer median 2.18× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~28.7× | EV ~$58.9B on ~$2.05B (derived); peers 19.0× |
| PEG | 3.39 | Vendor; peer median 2.11 |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | ~1.8% / 1.87% | Dividends absorb most free cash flow |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | $51.43 | $59.0B | $9.08B | 6.50× | +198% |
| Grainger | $1,325.10 | $62.4B | $18.84B | 3.31× | +52% |
| Applied Industrial | $332.85 | $12.2B | $4.97B | 2.46× | +13% |
| MSC Industrial | $132.17 | ~$7.4B | $3.91B | ~1.89× | −13% |
| Wesco | $362.94 | $17.7B | $25.01B | 0.71× | −67% |
| Peer median | — | $15.0B | $11.90B | 2.18× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | $1.24 | 41.5× | +15.5% | 3.39 | Quality premium; fully valued |
| Grainger | $39.21 | 33.8× | +10.3% | 1.73 | Closest comparable; cheaper |
| Applied Industrial | $10.95 | 30.4× | +10.4% | 2.78 | Strong Buy consensus |
| MSC Industrial | $4.14 | 31.9× | +7.8% | 2.48 | Recovery story; +57% YTD |
| Wesco | $14.46 | 25.1× | +13.0% | 1.56 | Cheapest; data-centre electrical exposure |
| Peer median | — | 31.2× | +10.4% | 2.11 | — |
Fastenal earns the best margins and growth in the group, and the market charges for it: three times the peer median on sales and roughly 1.5 times on forward earnings. There is no valuation cushion inside the window; the support has to come from growth.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 20 Aug 2025 – 13 Oct 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 14 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.1827 | −0.0332 | 0.1399 | −0.3774 | 0.0856 | 19.0 | Mean-reverting. Negative since April; up from the −0.377 low of July |
| Volatility | −0.2633 | 0.0017 | 0.2890 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 23.2 | Low. Has been negative since 17 Sep; the −4.5% print day will push it higher |
Currently in Q3 Quiet Range, held 19 consecutive sessions (since 17 Sep). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the quadrant call is not provisional. As of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 24.6% | Late 2025 and Q1 2026 swings |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 25.3% | Around the April and July prints |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 19.0% | May–Jul and since mid-September |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 31.1% | The late-2025 to early-2026 grind higher |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet drift ↔ Volatile trend | 8 | 2025 – early 2026, Persistency positive |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 4 | Volatility fades after prints |
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 3 | Prints and macro shocks |
| Volatile trend → Volatile chop | 1 | 13 Apr: Persistency turns negative on the Q1 print |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Range had a median of +6.2% (86% positive, 36 observations); from Quiet Drift +1.4% (58%); from Volatile Chop −0.3% (48%); and from Volatile Trend −2.6% (25%). Unconditionally the median was +0.1% (50% positive). The print is likely to move FAST into Volatile Chop, historically a flat state. As of 13 Oct 2026.
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Negative Persistency means recent moves have tended to reverse. For the next 10–30 days that favours a partial retracement of the post-print drop rather than an extended slide, though the print itself may lift Volatility out of the quiet range. These statistics describe 20 Aug 2025 – 13 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.028 | 0.1 | 0.140 | −0.496 | 0.509 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.015 | 0.0 | −0.073 | −0.278 | 0.429 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.028 | 0.1 | −0.100 | −0.389 | 0.341 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.013 | 0.0 | 0.132 | −0.321 | 0.415 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | 0.006 | 0.0 | −0.072 | −0.316 | 0.270 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.374 | 14.0 | −0.212 | −0.682 | −0.011 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.013 | 0.0 | 0.073 | −0.376 | 0.495 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.052 | 0.3 | 0.090 | −0.357 | 0.300 | Variable | Negative |
Methodology: daily log returns of FAST against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 15 Oct 2021 – 13 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's rolling correlation (−0.212) is mid-range; its range (−0.682 to −0.011) has never turned positive. Drivers as of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00002 | 0.026 | 0.5% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.15889 | −0.374 | 99.5% |
FAST is an idiosyncratic name with a modest sector link. Its one-year correlations are 0.55 with Grainger and 0.48 with the industrials fund, and only 0.24 with the S&P 500. For the next 10–30 days the October sales number and the distributor peers matter far more than the index.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against FAST daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 has stayed negative throughout (about −0.01 to −0.68); Market Driver 1 has swung around zero within ±0.5 and is about +0.12 on the latest reading. As of 13 Oct 2026.
FAST daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 12 Oct 2026, 1,168 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.5% | +15.2% | +23.3% | 18.8% | 1.24 | 54.7% | +4.08% | −2.73% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 286 | 24.4% | +18.7% | +16.3% | 22.2% | 0.73 | 50.0% | +6.78% | −4.84% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 417 | 35.5% | +37.2% | +21.1% | 29.0% | 0.72 | 53.2% | +9.31% | −7.10% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 300 | 25.6% | +2.7% | +2.3% | 23.5% | 0.10 | 50.0% | +7.25% | −7.84% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Quiet Range | 353 | 30.1% | +31.5% | +21.6% | 21.5% | 1.00 | 51.3% | +6.78% | −4.84% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 410 | 35.0% | +50.1% | +28.3% | 29.1% | 0.97 | 53.9% | +9.31% | −7.10% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 233 | 19.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.6% | 0.00 | 49.8% | +7.25% | −7.84% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 177 | 15.1% | −2.4% | −3.3% | 19.0% | −0.18 | 50.8% | +3.79% | −2.73% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.2% | +31.4% | +61.8% | 22.8% | 2.71 | 54.5% | +7.25% | −2.56% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 444 | 37.9% | +24.9% | +13.5% | 28.3% | 0.48 | 53.4% | +9.31% | −7.10% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 341 | 29.1% | +14.3% | +10.3% | 22.6% | 0.46 | 51.3% | +6.78% | −7.84% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 245 | 20.9% | +2.7% | +2.8% | 21.6% | 0.13 | 48.2% | +6.93% | −6.72% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded FAST return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for FAST | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +2.7% | 0.10 | 1.14 | 27 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.18 | 27 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +2.7% | 0.13 | 2.58 | 21 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +52.0% | 1.26 | 1.07 | 100 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +11.4% | 1.08 | 0.77 | 15 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | +16.9% | 0.56 | 1.29 | 76 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | +4.7% | 0.21 | 2.88 | 21 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +14.1% | 0.60 | 0.31 | 20 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +26.0% | 0.54 | 2.01 | 48 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −4.2% | −0.32 | 1.85 | 30 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | +3.1% | 0.12 | 0.95 | 111 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −4.1% | −0.28 | 1.58 | 15 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −14.1% | −0.32 | 3.48 | 17 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +43.1% | 1.08 | 1.05 | 10 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning FAST is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 12 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 26 | Fastenal Q3: EPS $0.35 (exp. $0.34), revenue $2.46B (exp. $2.44B) (Newsquawk) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | Fastenal dips on heavier spending expectations, in-line Q3 results (Investing.com) | Negative |
| 14 Oct 26 | Daily sales rise 15.5%; operating margin 21.5% (StockTitan) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | Q3 net sales surpass estimates with robust growth (Smartkarma) | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | 2026 capex set at $310–330M for the Atlanta hub, automation and IT; FMI goal trimmed (release) | Negative |
| 14 Oct 26 | Gross margin 44.8%, down 40 bps YoY but above consensus (Investing.com) | Mixed |
| Oct 26 | Previews: what you must know ahead of Fastenal's Q3 release (Zacks) | Neutral |
| 13 Oct 26 | Stock closes at $51.43, near its 52-week high | Positive |
| Aug 26 | Directors Heise and Ancius and officer Papenfuss sell after option exercises | Negative |
| 11 Aug 26 | Stock hits a 52-week high of $52.38 | Positive |
| 14–16 Jul 26 | Q2: sales +14.7%; stock −2.8%; Morgan Stanley raises to $52, Barclays trims to $46 | Mixed |
| 13 Jul 26 | Rothschild & Co initiates at Buy, $55 target | Positive |
12 rows, newest first. Sources as listed, plus Yahoo Finance rating and insider feeds; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative is steady — "best-in-class distributor growing into an industrial upturn" — but each print has met a stock priced for it, producing four straight negative first-day reactions.
| Field | Fastenal Company | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Fastenal Company | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NASDAQ: FAST · IPO 1987; founded 1967 | Grainger, Wesco, Applied, MSC on NYSE |
| Domicile | United States (Winona, Minnesota) | All peers US-based |
| Sector / industry | Industrials · Industrial and construction supplies distribution | MRO distribution peers |
| Market cap | $59.0B (1,147.5M shares × $51.43) | Second to Grainger ($62.4B) |
| Employees | 24,679 (21,749 FTE) | Grainger 22,100; Wesco 21,000 |
| TTM revenue | $9.08B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Half of Grainger's; about a third of Wesco's |
| Revenue model | Fasteners, safety, tools and MRO supplies through branches, Onsite locations inside customer plants and FMI vending/bin devices; manufacturing is the largest end market | Grainger is catalogue and e-commerce led |
| Key differentiators | Onsite and FMI (143,878 devices) embed Fastenal in customer operations; 61% digital footprint; highest margins in the group | MSC competes in metalworking; Applied in bearings and power transmission |
| CIK | 0000815556 | — |
| Website | fastenal.com | — |
The 14 October print showed sales up 15.5%, operating margin up to 21.5% and cash conversion above 100%, from a business with net cash and the best margins among industrial distributors. It also showed gross margin down 40 bps, capex stepping up ~40% and a trimmed device goal, and the shares fell about 4.5% pre-market from near a 52-week high and above the consensus target. FAST's quiet, mean-reverting regime has historically been followed by gains, which argues against a deep slide, but the premium valuation leaves no room for a growth stumble. The view turns bullish if October daily sales grow 14% or more (~5 Nov) and FAST recovers $51. It turns bearish if growth slows toward 12% or ISM falls below 50 and FAST breaks $47.