Close 14 Oct 2026
$51.96
Q3 2026 revenue rose 4% to $4.84B (+5% in constant currency) and adjusted EPS of $1.01 matched consensus. But gross margin fell 70 bps to 15.9%, Q4 EPS guidance of $1.03–1.13 sits below the $1.10 consensus, free cash flow was negative and the board named a new CEO from 1 January. Shares were ~19% lower pre-market at ~$42, after doubling between February and August. Over the next 10–30 days the company, not the market, decides the price; analyst resets and the Randstad, Adecco and Kelly prints show whether the gap extends toward $39 or starts to fill.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $51.96 on 14 Oct: −11.1% over 30 days, +74.8% YTD and −18.7% from the $63.88 high. The stock more than doubled from a $25.75 close (24 Feb) to $62.95 (31 Aug). It traded ~19% lower pre-market (~$42) on the release, inside July's unfilled gap ($39.02–46.78). | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Q3 revenue $4.84B, +4.4% reported, +5.2% constant currency (cc), +6% organic cc. That was just under the $4.85B consensus. Americas +12% cc (US +6%), Northern Europe +6% cc, Southern Europe +2% cc (France −2% cc), APME +4% cc. Q4 guidance is +3–7% cc. | Mixed |
| Profitability | Gross margin 15.9%, down 70 bps (staffing mix −50 bps, permanent recruitment −10, career transition −10). Operating profit $82.3M (+24%), a 1.7% margin (2.1% adjusted) as SG&A fell 2.5%. Adjusted EPS $1.01, up 24% in cc; GAAP $0.71. Q4 gross margin guided at 15.8–16.0%. | Bearish |
| Valuation vs peers | At $51.96: 15.1× TTM adjusted EPS, 0.13× sales and 8.0× EV/EBITDA. At the ~$42 pre-market level: ~11.7× 2026 adjusted EPS of ~$3.59 (derived from YTD plus the Q4 midpoint) and 0.92× book. The peer forward P/E median is 13.9×. | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | Manpower brand +7% organic cc (65% of gross profit). Experis flat (−2% in Q2), with US Experis back to growth. Talent Solutions +1%. France operating unit profit −27%. Systemwide revenue including franchises $5.3B. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Cash $233M, total debt $1.10B, net debt $870M; debt-to-capital 34%. Q3 free cash flow −$17M (+$75M excluding quarter-end MSP payment timing, which the company says reverses in Q4); −$161M YTD. No buybacks in 2026. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend: Persistency +0.128 (the high of the window), Volatility +0.096 (60th percentile). Held 2 sessions after a 2-session Quiet Drift blip; before that, Volatile Trend from 27 Jul to 8 Oct (53 sessions). Not on a boundary. As of 14 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Mixed |
| Driver exposure | 90.2% idiosyncratic. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 −0.01 (beta −0.04). Peers: Robert Half 0.75, Korn Ferry 0.71, Kelly 0.62. Sector Driver 1 is the only driver with weight (−0.31 over five years, +0.03 now). As of 14 Oct 2026. | Neutral |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Estimate and target resets after a print that removed the case for further upside. The $57.44 consensus target was set during the rally. In 4 of the last 5 prints that fell more than 5% on the day, the stock was lower 21 sessions later. US market and SP500 sit in Quiet Drift, MAN's worst regime for both. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Kforce Q3 (26 Oct), FOMC (27–28 Oct), Randstad Q3 (expected late Oct), Adecco Q3 (expected early Nov), Kelly Q3 (5 Nov), the US October jobs report (6 Nov) and MAN's 10-Q (expected early Nov). Robert Half reports on 21 Oct, just before the window. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Bearish, with high bounce risk. The quarter was delivered, but it confirmed margin compression and a Q4 guide below expectations in a stock priced for an inflection. Gaps of this kind have tended to extend in MAN, and the market map is unfavourable. A cheap multiple and ~10% short interest are the counterweights. Composite 5.8 / 10. Bearish | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (25 Oct – 14 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings are as of 14 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 13 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came before the open on 15 Oct, and the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data; the pre-market indication was ~$42 at 07:50 ET. 2026 adjusted EPS of ~$3.59 is derived (nine-month $2.51 plus the $1.08 Q4 midpoint).
ManpowerGroup's turnaround is real: revenue is growing again, costs are falling and adjusted EPS is up a fifth. But the market had priced 2026 as an inflection, and Q3 delivered only the midpoint of its own guidance, with gross margin still shrinking. Over the next month the question is how far expectations reset, not whether the business is healing.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (5.0). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.63 + 1.40 + 0.81 + 0.60 + 0.50 + 0.40 + 0.43 = 5.8 (5.76).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate and target cuts | Financial | Q4 guide below consensus; margin guide down year on year | Yes |
| Post-gap drift | Market | 4 of 5 large print-day drops extended over 21 sessions | Yes |
| Randstad / Adecco / Kelly read-across | Competitive | European and US staffing demand and margins | Yes |
| US jobs data | Macro | Temporary-help employment and hiring trend | Possible |
| Market regime | Macro | US market in MAN's worst regime | Possible |
| AI substitution | Structural | Lower volumes in clerical and IT staffing | Structural |
| CEO transition | Governance | New CEO from 1 Jan 2027 | Structural |
| Leverage / refinancing | Financial | $541M short-term debt; negative YTD free cash flow | Structural |
Nothing in the quarter threatens the business inside a month. What threatens the price is the reset: a stock that ran on the inflection story has to be re-rated on a quarter that only met plan, and the analysts who chased it higher in July now have reason to cut.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | 15 Oct 2026 | $4,840M | −0.2% | $0.71 (adj. $1.01) | 0.0% | Pre-mkt ~−19% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | 16 Jul 2026 | $4,860M | Beat (n/q) | $1.13 (adj. $0.99) | +4.2% | +32.4% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | 16 Apr 2026 | $4,510M | n/a | $0.05 (adj. $0.51) | +4.1% | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | 29 Jan 2026 | $4,713M | n/a | $0.64 (adj. $0.92) | +12.2% | +15.0% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | 16 Oct 2025 | $4,634M | n/a | $0.38 (adj. $0.83) | +2.5% | −6.5% |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | 17 Jul 2025 | $4,519M | n/a | −$1.44 (adj. $0.78) | +13.0% | +2.9% |
Reports come before the open, so the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing; the pre-market indication was ~$42 at 07:50 ET. EPS surprise compares adjusted EPS with the vendor consensus. The Q3 2026 revenue consensus is $4.85B (Investing.com); earlier revenue consensus was not available ("n/q" = beat reported, not quantified). 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: −7.0%, −19.4%, −18.8%, −16.2%, +12.9%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | n/c | 75% (6/8) | Quarterly EPS, revenue and margin ranges |
| MAN (since 2020) | — | 75% (18/24) | Q3 2026 landed at the guidance midpoint |
| Robert Half | n/c | 50% (4/8) | Quarterly ranges |
| Kforce | n/c | 63% (5/8) | Quarterly ranges |
| Kelly Services | n/c | 25% (2/8) | n/c |
| Korn Ferry | n/c | 88% (7/8) | Quarterly ranges |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 56% | — |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 EPS | $1.03–1.13 | Midpoint $1.08 vs $1.10 consensus; excludes restructuring |
| Q4 revenue | +3–7% (cc +3–7%) | Organic cc +4–8%; Americas +5–9% cc, N. Europe +8–12% cc |
| Q4 gross margin | 15.8–16.0% | Against 16.3% in Q4 2025 |
| Q4 operating margin | 2.1–2.3% | EBITA margin 2.2–2.4% |
| Q4 tax rate | 44% | Unchanged from Q3 guidance |
| Next quarterly report | ~late Jan 2027 | Outside the window; first under the new CEO |
| 10-Q filing | ~early Nov 2026 | Inside the window (expected; Q2's came 22 days after the release) |
The next MAN report falls well outside the window, so the guidance just given is what the stock trades on for the month. It is a cautious guide, not a weak one: revenue growth holds at mid-single digits, but margin does not recover and EPS lands just under the Street.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 (print) | Investing.com consensus read | Bearish | EPS in line at $1.01; revenue $4.84B vs $4.85B; Q4 midpoint $1.08 vs $1.10 |
| 13 Oct 2026 (pre-print) | UBS | Neutral | Target $55 → $56; Neutral maintained |
| Jul 2026 (post-Q2) | Baird, BMO | Bullish | Outperform; Baird $45 → $72, BMO $49 → $63 |
| Jul 2026 (post-Q2) | Goldman, Truist, Barclays | Neutral | Neutral / Hold / Equal-Weight; targets raised to $57, $50 and $47 |
| Mar 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Mixed | Upgraded from Sell to Neutral at $30 near the cycle low |
| Consensus | 9 analysts | Mixed | "Buy" key; mean target $57.44, median $57, range $47–72 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus (retrieved 15 Oct 2026, pre-market); Investing.com earnings report (15 Oct 2026). Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Board | CEO succession | — | — | — | Frankiewicz CEO from 1 Jan 2027; Prising Executive Chair |
| 3 Sep 2026 | John B. Gibson Jr., Director | Form 3 / 4 (initial) | n/d | — | — | New director (Paychex CEO), from 1 Sep |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Jonas Prising, CEO | Gift | 18,766 | $0.00 | — | Neutral; estate planning |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Jonas Prising, CEO | Award vesting / gift | 52,865 / 29,546 | ~$28.36 | $1.50M | Neutral; annual vesting near the low |
| 17 Feb 2026 | John McGinnis, CFO | Award vesting | 15,250 | ~$28.36 | $432.5k | Neutral |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Rebecca Frankiewicz, President | Award vesting | 4,535 | ~$28.36 | $128.6k | Neutral |
| 31 Dec 2025 | Directors Sartain, Read | Annual grants | 6,054 each | $29.73 | $180.0k each | Routine |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed; 8-K filings of 11 Aug and 15 Oct 2026 (SEC EDGAR). There were no open-market purchases or sales by officers or directors in the last 12 months. Value at vesting is derived from the reported value and share count. The company bought back no stock in 2026 ($38M in the first nine months of 2025). Frankiewicz's 2027 package is $1.15M salary, a 150% bonus target and a $7.5M long-term incentive target.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2027 | ManpowerGroup | Becky Frankiewicz becomes CEO; Jonas Prising becomes Executive Chair | No |
| ~6 Nov 2026 | BLS (expected) | October jobs report, including temporary-help employment | Yes |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Kelly Services | Q3 results; US staffing read (0.62 correlation) | Yes |
| ~early Nov 2026 | Adecco (expected) | Q3 results; French and European demand and gross margin | Yes |
| ~early Nov 2026 | ManpowerGroup (expected) | Form 10-Q with segment and cash-flow detail | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Randstad (expected) | Q3 results; Northern Europe and US read | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; labour-market read and rates | Yes |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Kforce | Q3 results after the close; US tech staffing (compare Experis) | Yes |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Robert Half | Q3 results after the close; the most-correlated peer (0.75) | Just before |
| 15 Oct 2026 | ManpowerGroup release | Q3: revenue +4% (+5% cc), adj. EPS $1.01, gross margin −70 bps; Q4 EPS $1.03–1.13; CEO succession | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 15 Oct 2026 report date (25 Oct – 14 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Robert Half, Kforce and Kelly dates are from the vendor earnings calendar. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
26 Oct: Kforce, for US IT staffing and Experis. Late Oct – early Nov: Randstad and Adecco, the two larger global peers, for European demand and whether gross margin pressure is industry-wide. 27–28 Oct: FOMC. 5 Nov: Kelly. ~6 Nov: the October jobs report and temporary-help employment. Early Nov: MAN's 10-Q. There is no MAN management event in the window, so peers and analyst resets set the tone.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | $51.96 | $2.42B | $18.92B | 0.13× | +4.4% | Buy · $57.44 | Negative |
| Korn Ferry (KFY) | $70.92 | $3.97B | $2.96B | 1.34× | +6.9% | Strong Buy · $90.25 | Neutral |
| Robert Half (RHI) | $34.98 | $3.58B | $5.29B | 0.68× | −2.4% | Hold · $35.00 | Mixed |
| Kforce (KFRC) | $51.30 | $0.92B | $1.34B | 0.68× | +4.5% | Buy · $60.67 | Neutral |
| Kelly Services (KELYA) | $15.79 | $0.55B | $4.06B | 0.13× | −5.8% | Buy · $20.00 | Mixed |
| Peer median | — | $2.25B | $3.51B | 0.68× | +1.1% | — | — |
Prices are at the 14 Oct 2026 close; MAN was ~$42 pre-market on 15 Oct. MAN revenue is TTM to Q3 2026 from company releases. Peer figures are vendor (Yahoo Finance) TTM to Jun 2026 (Korn Ferry to Jul 2026). Randstad and Adecco, the closest global peers, are listed outside the US and are not in the table. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | $56 | $55 | 13 Oct 2026 | +7.8% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| Barclays | $47 | $30 | 20 Jul 2026 | −9.5% | Equal-Weight | ▲ Raised |
| BMO Capital | $63 | $49 | 17 Jul 2026 | +21.2% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| Goldman Sachs | $57 | $36 | 17 Jul 2026 | +9.7% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| Truist Securities | $50 | $34 | 17 Jul 2026 | −3.8% | Hold | ▲ Raised |
| UBS | $55 | $41 | 17 Jul 2026 | +5.9% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| Baird | $72 | $45 | 17 Jul 2026 | +38.6% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| UBS | $41 | $33 | 14 Jul 2026 | −21.1% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| Baird | $45 | $50 | 17 Apr 2026 | −13.4% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Truist Securities | $34 | $38 | 17 Apr 2026 | −34.6% | Hold | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $51.96 close on 14 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Every action since mid-July has been a raise, with the post-Q2 targets at $47–72. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $51.96 |
| Consensus target | $57.44 |
| Median target | $57.00 |
| High target | $72.00 |
| Low target | $47.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +10.5% |
| Implied downside to low | −9.5% |
| Analysts contributing | 9 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 15 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. From the ~$42 pre-market level, even the $47 low target implies +12% and the consensus +37%. Targets are likely to fall toward the price.
| $47 |
| $57 |
| $57 |
| $72 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | $4,519M | ~+10.5% | n/d | −$1.44 | 16.9% | $6M | −0.6% | Beat | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | $4,634M | +2.5% | n/d | $0.38 | 16.6% | $99M | 1.4% | Beat | −6.5% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | $4,713M | +1.7% | n/d | $0.64 | 16.3% | $109M | 1.7% | Beat | +15.0% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | $4,510M | −4.3% | ~+10.3% | $0.05 | 16.0% | $61M | 0.6% | Beat | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | $4,860M | +7.8% | +7.5% | $1.13 | 16.1% | $138M | 2.3% | Beat | +32.4% |
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | $4,840M | −0.4% | +4.4% | $0.71 | 15.9% | ~$103M | 1.7% | In line | Pending |
Margin is the reported operating margin; Q2 2025 includes an $88.7M goodwill and intangible impairment. The EBITDA column is reported (unadjusted) EBITDA from the vendor; Q3 2026 is derived as EBITA ($89M) plus estimated depreciation. On the company's adjusted basis, Q3 2026 EBITA was $107M (2.2% margin). Q1 2025 revenue ($4,090M) is the nine-month 2025 total less Q2 and Q3 (derived, marked ~). vs Est. compares adjusted EPS with consensus. Reports come before the open, so the reaction is same-day.
Revenue has grown in each of the last three quarters year on year, while gross margin has drifted from 16.9% to 15.9% over the same six quarters. The company is growing volume through lower-margin staffing and away from permanent placement and outplacement. Q4 guidance (15.8–16.0%) keeps the decline going.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.05 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.5–3.0 target · below; typical for a staffer funding payroll ahead of receivables |
| Quick ratio | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.08 | ≥1.0 · just passes; receivables of $4.62B are 96% of current assets |
| Cash ratio | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.11 | Low; cash fell from $871M to $233M after repaying €500M of notes |
Derived from the reported balance sheets. Quick ratio is cash plus accounts receivable over current liabilities. The December 2025 cash balance was temporarily lifted by a €500M note issue that pre-funded the June 2026 maturity.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAN (Sep 26) | 1.05 | −$870M | Tight; receivables-funded |
| Korn Ferry (Jul 26) | 2.37 | +$219M | Strong |
| Kforce (Jun 26) | 1.93 | −$122M | Adequate |
| Kelly Services (Jun 26) | 1.50 | −$105M | Adequate |
| Robert Half (Jun 26) | 1.47 | +$84M | Strong |
| Peer median | 1.72 | −$10M | — |
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.52 | 0.81 | 0.45 | Lower is safer · moderate; debt-to-capital 34% (company) |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.12 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | 2.9× (Q3) | 1.6× | 3.4× | >2.5 healthy · just passes; TTM 3.0× |
| Debt service coverage | 0.64 (TTM) | 0.38 | n/d | >1.25 healthy · fails; short-term debt is refinanced, not repaid from EBITDA |
Debt is short-term borrowings and current maturities plus long-term debt: $1,103M (Sep 26), $1,677M (Dec 25, including the pre-funding notes), $953M (Dec 24). Coverage is reported operating profit over interest expense (Q3 $82.3M / $28.0M; FY25 $150.1M / $95.4M; FY24 $306.0M / $90.0M). DSCR is EBITDA over interest plus short-term debt and current maturities ($541M at Sep 26).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 15.9% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 16.7% | 17.3% | ▼ |
| Operating margin | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | −0.1% | 0.8% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | → |
| Return on assets | 0.4% (q) | 1.4% | 0.2% (q) | −0.1% | 1.7% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 1.6% (q) | 5.7% | 0.9% (q) | −0.6% | 6.7% | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 0.64% × 2.17 × 4.15 | — | −0.07% × 2.07 × 4.3 | — | Margin recovering; leverage high |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios are derived from reported figures. TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026. FY2025 operating and net margins include the $88.7M impairment. The EBITDA margin row is reported EBITDA (unadjusted); on the adjusted basis Q3 2026 EBITA margin was 2.2%. Adjusted TTM ROE is ~7.8%.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAN (TTM) | 16.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Kforce | 27.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 28.3% | 1 of 5 |
| Korn Ferry | 24.7% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Robert Half | 36.8% | −4.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 9.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Kelly Services | 19.7% | 1.9% | −6.7% | 1.8% | −24.3% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 26.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 11.8% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures. Rank is by ROE. Gross margins are not like-for-like: Robert Half and Kforce are professional and IT staffing, with structurally higher spreads than MAN's volume-weighted industrial and office staffing.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 2.29 | 1.96 (FY25) | Revenue over latest total assets; FY25 assets lifted by pre-funding cash |
| Revenue per employee | ~$745k | ~$707k (FY25) | On ~25,400 internal staff (vendor); excludes associates placed |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | +87% GAAP | — | Adjusted +22% reported, +24% cc |
| Revenue growth (9M) | +7.3% | — | +4.7% cc; Q3 +4.4% (+5.2% cc) |
| Dividend yield | 2.8% | — | ~$1.44 a year, paid semi-annually; ~3.4% at $42 |
| Book value per share | $45.6 | $44.3 (Dec 25) | Equity $2.14B over 46.9M shares (derived) |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | 2.29 | $745k | ~25,400 | +22% (adj.) | 2.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Korn Ferry | 0.77 | $330k | 8,965 | +4% | 3.1% | 1 of 5 |
| Kforce | 3.28 | $840k | 1,600 | +18% | 3.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Robert Half | 1.85 | $365k | 14,500 | −36% | 6.8% | 4 of 5 |
| Kelly Services | 1.78 | $829k | 4,900 | −40% | 1.9% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 1.82 | $597k | 6,933 | −16% | 3.1% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure. Employee counts are internal staff, not placed workers.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manpower brand revenue (organic cc) | +7% | — | +7% | +8% in Q2; 65% of gross profit |
| Experis revenue (organic cc) | 0% | — | 0% | −2% in Q2; US Experis back to growth |
| Talent Solutions revenue (organic cc) | +1% | — | +1% | Flat in Q2; RPO and MSP up, Right Management down |
| Gross margin | 15.9% | 16.6% | −70 bps | Staffing −50, permanent −10, career transition −10 |
| Adjusted SG&A / revenue | 13.8% | 15.2% | −140 bps | Cost programme; $200M savings target by 2028 |
| United States revenue / OUP | $728.8M / $24.3M | $690.8M / $20.6M | +5.5% / +18% | Organic cc +9%; share gains in Manpower |
| France revenue / OUP | $1,132.9M / $22.4M | $1,173.5M / $30.6M | −3.5% / −27% | The largest single country; −1.9% cc |
| Franchise revenue (systemwide add) | $481.1M | $300.3M | +60% | Systemwide revenue $5.3B |
From the Q3 2026 release and presentation (15 Oct 2026). Brand growth rates are organic constant currency as reported; brand revenue in dollars is not disclosed. OUP = operating unit profit.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 20.5× | GAAP TTM EPS $2.53; 15.1× adjusted ($3.43); ~12.2× adjusted at $42 |
| P/E forward (vendor) | 10.7× | Forward EPS $4.83 (pre-print); ~8.7× at $42; peer median 13.9× |
| Price / book | 1.14× | BVPS $45.6; ~0.92× at $42 |
| Price / sales TTM | 0.13× | Peer median 0.68×; Kelly 0.13× |
| EV / EBITDA TTM | 8.0× | EV $3.29B on $411M EBITDA (derived); Korn Ferry 8.7×, Kelly 9.0× |
| 2026 adjusted EPS (derived) | ~$3.59 | 9M $2.51 + Q4 midpoint $1.08; 14.5× at $51.96, 11.7× at $42 |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | negative YTD / 2.8% | 9M free cash flow −$161M; Q4 MSP timing reversal guided |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | $51.96 | $2.42B | $18.92B | 0.13× | −81% |
| Korn Ferry | $70.92 | $3.97B | $2.96B | 1.34× | +97% |
| Robert Half | $34.98 | $3.58B | $5.29B | 0.68× | 0% |
| Kforce | $51.30 | $0.92B | $1.34B | 0.68× | 0% |
| Kelly Services | $15.79 | $0.55B | $4.06B | 0.13× | −80% |
| Peer median | — | $2.25B | $3.51B | 0.68× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | $2.53 (adj. $3.43) | 20.5× (adj. 15.1×) | +4.4% | 0.69 (adj.) | Cheap on adjusted earnings; margins the weakest in the group |
| Korn Ferry | $5.22 | 13.6× | +6.9% | 3.9 | Highest margins; consulting-led |
| Kforce | $2.12 | 24.2× | +4.5% | 1.35 | Premium for tech staffing and ROE |
| Robert Half | $1.15 | 30.4× | −2.4% | n/m | Trough earnings; revenue still falling |
| Kelly Services | −$7.75 | n/m | −5.8% | n/m | Loss-making on impairments |
| Peer median | — | 24.2× | +1.1% | 2.6 | — |
On every multiple MAN is at or near the bottom of the group, and at ~$42 it trades below book value. But the discount reflects the weakest margins and returns in the set. Valuation limits how far the reset can go; it does not stop it within a month.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 21 Aug 2025 – 14 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots the latest 260 (from 2 Oct 2025). As of 14 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 15 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.1283 | −0.0611 | 0.1004 | −0.1598 | 0.1283 | 100.0 | Trend-persistent. Rising almost every day since 27 Jul; the highest reading of the window |
| Volatility | 0.0958 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 59.9 | Normal. Fell from +0.50 in late July to below zero on 9–12 Oct; turning up again |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 2 consecutive sessions (13–14 Oct) after a 2-session Quiet Drift reading (9–12 Oct). Before that MAN was in Volatile Trend for 53 sessions (27 Jul – 8 Oct). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not provisional. The reading predates the 15 Oct gap. As of 14 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 27.0% | June – October 2026 rally; the current state |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 23.2% | Oct–Nov 2025 slide; Feb–Mar 2026 low; the week after the July print |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 47.4% | Late 2025 – Jan 2026 and Mar–May 2026 bases |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 2.4% | Brief readings in May, early July and 9–12 Oct |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile chop ↔ Quiet range | 8 | 4 each way; the 2025 – spring 2026 base |
| Quiet drift ↔ Volatile trend | 4 | Short pauses inside the 2026 rally |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 2 | June 2026 and 27 Jul, after the Q2 print |
| Quiet range → Quiet drift | 1 | May 2026: Persistency turns positive |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Volatile Trend had a median of +11.8% (64% positive, 59 observations), almost all from the July–August rally. From Quiet Range the median was +1.3% (53%); from Volatile Chop −1.4% (48%). Quiet Drift has only 5 observations and is too thin to read. Unconditionally the median was +2.2% (55% positive), in a stock up 25% over the window. As of 14 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can drift in one direction for months, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. High Persistency means moves have tended to extend. The current reading was earned during a rally, but the same state applied to a 19% gap down describes a decline that has room to continue. These statistics describe 21 Aug 2025 – 14 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.004 | 0.0 | 0.255 | −0.359 | 0.354 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.027 | 0.1 | 0.160 | −0.375 | 0.405 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.013 | 0.0 | −0.212 | −0.460 | 0.368 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.001 | 0.0 | 0.092 | −0.275 | 0.374 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.002 | 0.0 | −0.139 | −0.399 | 0.304 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.313 | 9.8 | 0.030 | −0.770 | 0.216 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.003 | 0.0 | −0.136 | −0.636 | 0.399 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.014 | 0.0 | −0.258 | −0.539 | 0.309 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of MAN against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 18 Oct 2021 – 14 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Only Sector Driver 1 carries weight (R² 9.8%); its rolling reading has swung from −0.77 to +0.22 and is +0.03 now. Market Driver 1's rolling correlation is +0.26 now but has no full-window link. Drivers as of 14 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | −0.00001 | −0.006 | 0.04% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.21932 | −0.313 | 99.96% |
MAN is an idiosyncratic name that trades with the staffing group, not the index. For the next 10–30 days an index hedge will not offset it. The analyst reset and the Randstad, Adecco, Kforce and Kelly prints will decide the month.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against MAN daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 ran persistently negative through 2024–25 and has risen to near zero; Market Driver 1 has swung around zero and is +0.29 on the latest plotted reading. As of 14 Oct 2026.
MAN daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 13 Oct 2026, 1,174 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.5% | +43.0% | +70.0% | 34.9% | 2.01 | 51.8% | +6.38% | −7.25% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 417 | 35.5% | −26.1% | −16.7% | 41.9% | −0.40 | 49.6% | +8.17% | −21.15% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 286 | 24.4% | −18.3% | −16.3% | 38.5% | −0.42 | 51.4% | +13.93% | −10.27% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 301 | 25.6% | −43.8% | −38.3% | 45.2% | −0.85 | 44.2% | +28.04% | −8.01% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 177 | 15.1% | +48.2% | +75.1% | 37.8% | 1.99 | 49.7% | +9.49% | −7.25% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 410 | 34.9% | −21.4% | −13.7% | 42.6% | −0.32 | 50.0% | +8.17% | −21.15% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 353 | 30.1% | −22.5% | −16.7% | 37.3% | −0.45 | 49.9% | +13.93% | −10.27% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 234 | 19.9% | −46.3% | −48.8% | 45.7% | −1.07 | 45.3% | +28.04% | −8.01% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.2% | +11.2% | +20.5% | 30.6% | 0.67 | 51.7% | +6.38% | −7.43% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 444 | 37.8% | −11.4% | −6.6% | 44.2% | −0.15 | 50.0% | +9.49% | −21.15% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 341 | 29.0% | −35.8% | −27.9% | 48.7% | −0.57 | 46.3% | +28.04% | −10.27% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 246 | 21.0% | −23.4% | −23.8% | 26.2% | −0.91 | 49.2% | +5.50% | −6.26% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded MAN return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 13 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for MAN | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −43.8% | −0.85 | 2.86 | 28 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −46.3% | −1.07 | 3.06 | 28 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −23.4% | −0.91 | 1.58 | 22 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | +94.7% | 1.15 | 2.38 | 101 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +53.8% | 2.18 | 3.29 | 16 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +32.1% | 0.53 | 2.12 | 77 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | −28.8% | −0.74 | 0.94 | 22 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | −18.1% | −0.55 | 1.20 | 21 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | −19.2% | −0.22 | 1.29 | 49 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −47.1% | −2.13 | 3.07 | 31 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +15.9% | 0.29 | 1.01 | 112 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −32.7% | −1.65 | 2.68 | 16 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −44.2% | −0.92 | 2.39 | 18 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −28.2% | −0.50 | 1.21 | 11 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning MAN is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 13 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 13 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days; where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations, and the July 2026 print day (+32%) sits in the US market Quiet Drift bucket. Market regime series as of 13 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 26 | ManpowerGroup reports Q3: revenue $4.84B (+4%), adjusted EPS $1.01; Q4 EPS guide $1.03–1.13 (PR Newswire) | Mixed |
| 15 Oct 26 | Stock slides pre-market on a slight revenue miss and a Q4 outlook below consensus (Investing.com) | Negative |
| 15 Oct 26 | Gross margin 15.9%, −70 bps; France operating unit profit −27% (company presentation) | Negative |
| 15 Oct 26 | Becky Frankiewicz to succeed Jonas Prising as CEO on 1 Jan 2027; Prising to Executive Chair (8-K) | Neutral |
| 13 Oct 26 | UBS raises target to $56, keeps Neutral (Yahoo Finance) | Neutral |
| 12 Oct 26 | Short interest near 10% of float and rising into the print; borrow 0.55% (ORTEX) | Negative |
| 8 Sep 26 | Q4 Employment Outlook Survey: global net employment outlook 29%, +6 pts y/y; US 36%, France 13% (Staffing Industry Analysts) | Positive |
| 31 Aug 26 | Shares close at $62.95, up 144% from the February low | Positive |
| 11 Aug 26 | Paychex CEO John Gibson appointed to the board from 1 Sep (8-K) | Neutral |
| 17 Jul 26 | Baird ($72), BMO ($63), Goldman ($57), UBS ($55) and Truist ($50) raise targets after Q2 | Positive |
| 16 Jul 26 | Q2 adjusted EPS $0.99 vs $0.95; revenue +8% (+6% cc); Jefferson Wells US sold for $100M; stock +32.4% | Positive |
| 24 Feb 26 | Shares close at a cycle low of $25.75 | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company releases and 8-K filings, Investing.com, ORTEX, Staffing Industry Analysts, Yahoo Finance rating log; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "cyclical trough and restructuring" (early 2026) to "2026 inflection" (July–August) to "inflection priced, margins not recovering" (15 Oct).
| Field | ManpowerGroup Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | ManpowerGroup Inc. | Global peers Randstad N.V. and Adecco Group AG |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: MAN · founded 1948 in Milwaukee | US peers NYSE- or Nasdaq-listed |
| Domicile | United States (Wisconsin; headquarters Milwaukee) | Randstad (Netherlands), Adecco (Switzerland) |
| Sector / industry | Industrials · Staffing & employment services (temporary staffing, permanent recruitment, RPO/MSP, career transition) | Korn Ferry is consulting and executive search |
| Market cap | $2.42B (46.5M shares × $51.96); ~$1.96B at ~$42 | Peer median $2.25B |
| Employees | ~25,400 internal staff (vendor) | Largest in the US peer set |
| TTM revenue | $18.92B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026); systemwide $5.3B in Q3 | 3.6× Robert Half, the next largest |
| Revenue model | Bill-rate spread on temporary staffing (most of revenue), permanent placement fees, RPO and MSP fees (Talent Solutions), Right Management outplacement, franchise fees | Peers skew to professional and IT staffing |
| Key differentiators | 70+ countries; three brands (Manpower 65% of gross profit, Experis 19%, Talent Solutions 16%); PowerSuite technology platform; 46% of revenue in Southern Europe | Most European exposure in the US-listed set |
| CIK | 0000871763 | — |
| Website | manpowergroup.com | — |
ManpowerGroup's Q3 was the quarter it guided to: revenue +5% in constant currency, adjusted EPS $1.01 (+24% cc), costs down and the Americas strong. It also confirmed what the rally had looked past: gross margin down 70 bps to 15.9%, a Q4 guide just under the Street, negative free cash flow and France still shrinking. A stock that doubled on the inflection story was ~19% lower pre-market. History favours drift after gaps like this, analysts have targets to cut, and the market map is unfavourable. The cheap multiple and short interest make a sharp bounce a live risk. The view turns bullish if Randstad and Adecco confirm a European recovery and MAN reclaims $46.80, the top of July's gap. It is confirmed if MAN closes below $39, filling the gap and breaking its 200-day average.