NEOG · NASDAQ · Health Care · Diagnostics & Research (food & animal safety)

Neogen's beat-and-raise bought a gap, not a trend — the month turns on whether it holds above $12

Neogen beat Q1 FY27 revenue by 9% (core growth +8.1%), nudged FY27 guidance up and traded 11% higher in after-hours trading on 6 October at $13.27 — back near the top of the $11.30–13.98 closing range it has held since the July print. With 97% of daily variance company-specific and the stock in a Volatile Chop regime at its lowest Persistency reading of the year, over the next 10–30 days the market will not decide this: the Investor Day, the HYCOAT warning-letter response and the securities-claim headlines will. We read the window as mixed, with upside capped near the $14 consensus target and a retest of $12 the main risk.

Research desk

2026-10-07 · Data as of 6 Oct 2026 close (6 Oct after-hours $13.27) · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · high variance

Close 6 Oct 2026

$11.96

30 day

▲ 1.1%

Year to date

▲ 71.1%

From 52W high

▼ 16.1%

Ann. volatility

58.6%

Regime as of

6 Oct · 1d lag

Close-based figures use the 6 Oct close, the session before results were digested (Q1 FY27 released 6 Oct, 16:01 ET). Last trade (6 Oct after-hours, 21:16 ET): $13.27, ▲ 11.0% vs the close; YTD on that print ▲ 89.8%. The regular session of 7 Oct had not opened at the time of writing. Volatility is 1-year realised on daily log returns.

Market cap

$2.89B

52W range

$5.37–14.26

TTM revenue

$884.0M

Rev growth

+6.5% YoY

P/S TTM

3.27×

P/E TTM

n/m (loss)

Report date

7 Oct 2026

TTM EPS

−$0.26 GAAP

EV/EBITDA

19.0× adj.

Food Safety core

+8.1%

Adj. EBITDA mgn

18.7%

Net cash

−$602M

Employees

2,636

Next catalyst

7 Oct · Inv. Day

Market cap, P/S and EV/EBITDA at the $13.27 last trade × 218.1M diluted shares. EV = market cap + $774.2M long-term debt − $172.0M cash (31 Aug 2026). EV/EBITDA uses TTM adjusted EBITDA of $183.9M; on GAAP EBITDA the multiple is ~37×.

NEOG · 30-day price (closes to 6 Oct)

NEOG · 1-year price

00Executive Summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	Fell 8.1% to $11.96 on 6 Oct ahead of the release, then ▲ 11.0% to $13.27 after hours; flat over 30 sessions (+1.1%) and 16% below the 22 Sep high of $13.98 close. The 29 Sep FDA headline took 7.2% off in a day.	Bearish
Revenue growth	Q1 FY27 revenue $222.8M, +6.5% reported, +8.1% core — fifth straight quarter of core growth and the fastest since FY23. ~400 bp of Food Safety growth was order timing.	Bullish
Profitability	Adj. EBITDA margin 18.7% (+170 bp YoY) but GAAP net loss −$11.9M; TTM GAAP EPS −$0.26. Gross margin 47.4% sits 17 pts below the peer median.	Mixed
Valuation vs peers	P/S 3.27× vs 6.64× peer median looks cheap; 19.0× EV/adj. EBITDA and ~37× adj. P/E do not. The post-print price is 5.5% below the $14 consensus target.	Mixed
Platform KPIs	Indicator testing / culture media (Petrifilm) +11%; pathogen detection double-digit; Animal Safety core +8.0%; first of 17 Petrifilm SKUs fully validated for the Lansing transfer.	Bullish
Balance sheet	Net debt $602M ≈ 3.3× TTM adj. EBITDA; current ratio 3.9×. ~$140M net Genomics proceeds would take leverage below 3.0×, but the sale sits in ACCC Phase 2 review.	Mixed
Regime state	Q2 Volatile Chop, held 12 sessions. Persistency −0.080 (2nd percentile of its 14-month history), Volatility +0.292 (79th percentile). As of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.	Bearish
Driver exposure	Idiosyncratic: Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 jointly explain 2.8% of daily variance (500 sessions). Sector Driver 1 dominates the little that is explained, with a negative sign (−0.164).	Neutral
Key risk (next 10–30 days)	Gap failure: a fade back through the $12 pre-print level as the HYCOAT warning-letter response (due ~14 Oct) and law-firm "investigations" keep headline risk live. Options price ±4.2% a day (IV 67%).	Bearish
Catalysts in window	7 Oct Investor Day (NYC); ~9–10 Oct 10-Q filing; ~14 Oct HYCOAT response deadline; November Petrifilm manufacturing transfer start. Next earnings early Jan 2027 — outside.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days)	Mixed. Fundamentals improved and the guide moved up, but the stock already trades within 6% of the $14 consensus and both current broker targets, and the regime rewards fading extremes. Mixed · high variance

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge.

The quarter was good and the stock has said so. What it has not done in this regime is follow through: its only prior push above $13 (18–28 Sep, peak $13.98) unwound to $11.96 within ten sessions. The window is about whether Investor Day gives the gap a reason to stay.

01Investment Thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.

Bull case

The beat is large and broad. Revenue $222.8M vs $204.7M consensus (+8.8%); adj. EPS $0.08 vs $0.05. Both segments grew ~8% core — Food Safety +8.1%, Animal Safety +8.0%.

Five beats in five quarters. Revenue has topped consensus every quarter since Q1 FY26 by 2.4–8.8%; the four prior prints moved the stock +16.5%, +31.6%, −2.9% and +22.7% on the day.

Investor Day reframes the multiple. Management has already flagged 200–300 bp of margin from FY29 once duplicate Petrifilm costs roll off; a credible long-range EBITDA target on 7 Oct could carry the stock to the $14 target cluster.

De-leveraging is visible. ~$140M net Genomics proceeds would cut net debt from $602M to ~$460M, taking leverage below 3.0× at close and ~2.5× by FY-end.

Short base can fuel it. More than 11M shares (~5% of shares) were short in mid-September; a hold above $13 forces cover into thin October liquidity.

Market cannot knock it over. 97.2% of variance is company-specific, so a broad risk-off inside the window has historically barely registered.

Neutral case

The guide raise was small. FY27 revenue moved $5M to $885–890M and EBITDA $1M to $181–183M — less than the $18M Q1 beat — implying the rest of the year is held flat.

Margins are guided flat. First-half adj. EBITDA margin ~18.7% and full-year "roughly consistent with FY26" (20.4%). No margin catalyst lands inside the window.

Price already sits at the targets. $13.27 is 5.5% below the $14 consensus and 2% above Piper's prior $13; analysts need new numbers to lift targets, which Investor Day may or may not provide.

Range is the base rate. All 48 sessions since 30 Jul have closed between $11.30 and $13.98. The Volatile Chop regime describes exactly this.

Timing flattered Q1. ~400 bp of Food Safety growth and ~100 bp of Animal Safety came from order timing and prior-year distributor adjustments.

Bear case

HYCOAT is not finished. The FDA warning letter (dated 23 Sep, public 29 Sep) cites fungal contamination linked to 95+ adverse cases in horses; Neogen Vet's response is due within 15 working days (~14 Oct). An inadequate response or new findings would re-open the 29 Sep −7.2% move.

Securities-claim headlines are accumulating. Pomerantz (6 Oct), SBS Law (4 Oct) and Levi & Korsinsky have announced investigations; a filed class action inside the window is plausible and usually costs a session.

GAAP is still red. Q1 net loss −$11.9M against $17.5M adjusted net income; Q1 free cash flow just $4.7M on $12.9M operating cash flow.

The regime fades gaps. Persistency is at its 2nd-percentile reading; the Oct 2025 +16.5% earnings gap gave back 11% the next day, and the Sep 2026 run to $13.98 unwound to $11.96 in ten sessions.

Execution calendar is crowded. Petrifilm transfer starts in November across 17 SKUs through FY28 — the same programme that caused 2024–25 supply and inventory problems.

Options already price a big month. Implied volatility 67% vs 44% 30-day realised, at the 97th percentile of its 13-week range: the premium is to the downside tail.

The fundamentals argue for the bull case; the calendar and the regime argue that the gap has to be defended before it can be extended.

02Composite Assessment

For the next 10–30 days NEOG is a company-news stock in a chop regime: the beat favours the bull case only if Investor Day and a clean HYCOAT response keep it above the $12 pre-print level — a close back below $12 hands the window to the bear case.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue growth

7.0

+6.5% reported / +8.1% core; rank 2 of 5 vs peers (median +0.5%); FY guide implies ~3% core

Profitability

4.5

Adj. EBITDA 18.7% vs peer EBITDA median 31.2%; GAAP net −5.3%; rank 5 of 5

Valuation

5.0

P/S 3.27× vs 6.64× peers, but 19.0× EV/adj. EBITDA and ~37× adj. P/E; 5.5% to consensus

Earnings quality

4.5

Adj. NI $17.5M vs GAAP −$11.9M; Q1 FCF $4.7M; ~400 bp timing tailwind

Balance sheet

5.5

Net debt $602M ≈ 3.3× adj. EBITDA; current ratio 3.9×; $140M proceeds pending

Competitive position

6.5

Petrifilm indicator franchise +11%; "competitive conversions"; strategic accounts +6.2%

Structural risk

4.0

Petrifilm transfer to FY28; FDA warning letter; securities-claim investigations

Regime alignment

4.0

Q2 Volatile Chop; Persistency 2nd percentile — gaps have retraced

Driver independence

9.0

97.2% idiosyncratic; Market Driver 1 correlation 0.015

Composite

5.5

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 (earnings quality + competitive) · Risk 10 (balance sheet + structural) · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Composite = 0.25×7.0 + 0.20×5.0 + 0.18×4.5 + 0.12×5.5 + 0.10×4.75 + 0.10×4.0 + 0.05×9.0 = 5.5.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

Five straight beats. Revenue topped consensus in every quarter since Q1 FY26, by 2.4–8.8%; Q1 FY27 +8.8% ($222.8M vs $204.7M).

Fastest core growth since FY23. +8.1% core in Q1 FY27 vs +1.9% for all of FY26; rank 2 of 5 on growth vs a +0.5% peer median.

Cheap on sales. P/S 3.27× vs 6.64× peer median — a 51% discount that leaves re-rating room if margins converge.

Market-proof. 97.2% of daily variance is idiosyncratic; Market Driver 1 correlation 0.015 over 500 sessions.

Deleveraging path. Net debt $602M (≈3.3×) falls toward ~2.5× with ~$140M Genomics proceeds.

Loses

Lowest profitability in the frame. Adj. EBITDA 18.7% vs peer EBITDA median 31.2%; GAAP net margin −6.3% TTM; rank 5 of 5.

Expensive on earnings. ~37× TTM adj. EPS and 19.0× EV/adj. EBITDA, with FY27 margins guided flat.

Regime is against chasing. Volatile chop with Persistency at the 2nd percentile; the Sep run to $13.98 unwound to $11.96 in ten sessions.

Headline overhang. FDA warning letter on HYCOAT (response ~14 Oct) and three law-firm investigations since 29 Sep.

Earnings quality. Q1 adj. net income $17.5M vs GAAP −$11.9M; Q1 FCF only $4.7M.

03Risk Factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Gap failure below $12. The stock fell 8.1% into the print and rose 11% after it; in a Volatile chop regime with IV at 67% (±4.2% a day) and ~11M shares short, a fade through the $12 pre-print level would erase the beat reaction. The test comes in the first week as Investor Day is digested.

HYCOAT escalation. The FDA letter cites fungal contamination tied to 95+ equine adverse cases and gives 15 working days to respond (~14 Oct). A rejected response, seizure or injunction, or new case counts would repeat the 29 Sep −7.2% session.

Securities class action filed. Pomerantz, SBS Law and Levi & Korsinsky are soliciting plaintiffs. A filed complaint inside the window is plausible; history says it costs a session, not the quarter.

Investor Day underwhelms. Management already guided H1 margins flat at ~18.7%; if long-range targets only restate the FY29 200–300 bp step-up, the event becomes a sell-the-news print on 7–8 Oct.

Structural context

Petrifilm manufacturing transfer. 17 SKUs move from 3M to Lansing from November through FY28, with duplicate costs peaking first. Execution slips would hit the +11% indicator franchise — but over quarters, not weeks.

Leverage and the Genomics sale. $774M of long-term debt costs ~$56M a year in interest. The ~$140M Zoetis sale is in ACCC Phase 2 (decision ~December), after the window.

Intangible-heavy balance sheet. Goodwill and intangibles of $2.37B exceed book equity; FY25 carried a $1.06B goodwill impairment. Another write-down cannot come before the Q2 FY27 close.

Competition in food-safety testing. bioMérieux, Thermo Fisher and Hygiena contest pathogen and indicator testing; the share gains claimed on the call need several quarters to prove.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Post-print gap failure	Market structure	Chop regime + IV 67% + ~5% short interest; a fade below $12 erases the beat reaction	Likely test
HYCOAT warning letter	Regulatory	Response due ~14 Oct; FDA could escalate (seizure/injunction) or publish further findings; litigation from horse owners	Yes
Securities class action	Governance / legal	Three firms "investigating" since 29 Sep; a filed complaint is headline risk, rarely material near term	Possible
Investor Day disappointment	Guidance	FY29 margin targets vs guided-flat FY27 margins; any capex or duplicate-cost upsizing	Possible (7 Oct)
Petrifilm transfer	Operational	17 SKUs, duplicate costs peak then subside; supply interruptions would hit the 11%-growth franchise	Starts Nov
Genomics sale blocked / delayed	Financial	ACCC Phase 2 (from 4 Aug, up to 90 business days); $140M of deleveraging depends on it	After window
Leverage and refinancing	Financial	$774M long-term debt, ~$56M annual interest vs $184M adj. EBITDA	No
Competitive pricing	Competitive	bioMérieux, Thermo Fisher, Hygiena in pathogen/indicator testing; share gains rely on restored supply	No
US–EU macro / FX	Macro	51% of Q1 revenue international; FX moves translation, not demand	Low

Nothing structural resolves inside a month. The live risks are all headline risks — FDA, lawyers, Investor Day — landing on a stock whose recent regime has punished people who chased its gaps.

04Earnings & Guidance Signals

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report date	Revenue	vs est.	EPS (adj. / GAAP dil.)	vs est. (adj.)	Reaction
Q1 FY27 (Aug-26)	6 Oct 2026	$222.8M	+8.8%	$0.08 / −$0.05	+$0.03	+11.0% (after hours, 6 Oct)
Q4 FY26 (May-26)	30 Jul 2026	$225.3M	+6.0%	$0.09 / −$0.05	+$0.04	+22.7%
Q3 FY26 (Feb-26)	9 Apr 2026	$211.2M	+3.3%	$0.09 / −$0.08	+$0.03	−2.9%
Q2 FY26 (Nov-25)	8 Jan 2026	$224.7M	+8.0%	$0.10 / −$0.07^e	+$0.07	+31.6%
Q1 FY26 (Aug-25)	9 Oct 2025	$209.2M	+2.4%	$0.04 / $0.17	Beat (adj. NI $9.4M vs $6M)	+16.5%

Reaction is the close-to-close move on the first session after the release. Q1 FY27 was released after the 6 Oct close (the stock fell 8.1% that session); Q4 FY26, Q3 FY26 and Q2 FY26 were released before the open. Q2 FY26 GAAP EPS is derived from FY26 net loss less Q1, Q3 and Q4 (−$15.9M ÷ ~217M shares). Q1 FY26 GAAP EPS includes a divestiture gain.

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev beat rate	EPS beat rate	Guidance
NEOG	5 / 5	5 / 5	Raised Q2 FY26, Q3 FY26 (rev), Q1 FY27
IDXX	Q2-26 beat	Q2-26 beat	2026 EPS raised to $14.69–14.94
QGEN	Q2-26 beat	Q2-26 beat	FY26 reaffirmed (+1–2% CER)
BIO	Q2-26 in line	—	Flat sales (−0.1%)
TECH	Q4 FY26 +1%	—	FY27 ~+4% street
Peer median	latest Q beat	latest Q beat	—

Peer beat rates checked for the latest reported quarter only — multi-quarter histories were not pulled.

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	~early Jan 2027	Q2 FY27; last year 8 Jan. Outside the 10–30 day window.
Guided revenue FY27	$885–890M	Raised from $880–885M; includes ~$92M Genomics until sale
Guided adj. EBITDA FY27	$181–183M	Raised $1M; H1 margin ~18.7%
Consensus revenue FY27	$883.2M	Pre-print; now below the guide midpoint ($887.5M)
Consensus EPS FY27	$0.31	Range $0.28–0.35; flat for 60 days pre-print
Free cash flow	"↑ meaningfully"	FY26 FCF $32.0M; capex declining as transfer completes

No earnings report falls inside the window. The stock moves on estimate revisions that follow the beat and on Investor Day framing — the consensus revenue number must rise ~$4M just to meet the new guide midpoint.

05Analyst Outlook

Period	Source	View	Key point
Oct 2026	StockAnalysis consensus (4 analysts)	Buy	Average target $14.00; 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 1 Hold. Pre-dates the Q1 print.
Sep 2026	Guggenheim (S. Nambi)	Buy	Target $12 → $14; called the FDA-letter selloff "overdone".
Sep 2026	William Blair (B. Vazquez)	Hold	Market Perform maintained into the print; no target.
Aug 2026	Piper Sandler (D. Westenberg)	Overweight	Upgraded from Neutral, $13 → $14: shift "from stabilization to sustainable profitable growth".
Sep 2026	MarketBeat aggregate	Hold	Consensus $12.00 incl. a quant "Sell"; 3 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell.
Oct 2025	Year-ago consensus	Hold	1 Buy / 4 Hold, median target $7.25 — the target has nearly doubled in a year.

No post-print (7 Oct) target changes had been published at the time of writing. Coverage is thin (4–5 brokers), so one revision moves the consensus.

06Insider & Board Activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal read
1 Oct 2026	Ronald D. Green, director	Annual RSU grant (+ 20,558 options)	9,804	$12.24	$120.0K	Neutral — compensation
1 Oct 2026	Jeffrey D. Capello, director	Annual RSU grant (+ 20,558 options)	9,804	$12.24	$120.0K	Neutral — compensation
19 Aug 2026	John P. Moylan, CAO	Shares withheld for tax on RSU vest	−2,365	$11.87	$28.1K	Neutral — mechanical
4 Aug 2026	Mikheal Nassif, CEO	Open-market purchase (indirect, son's account)	370	$11.81	$4.4K	Token positive — size immaterial

Source: SEC Form 4 filings (CIK 0000711377), 2026. No discretionary open-market sales by officers or directors found in 2026. Insiders own ~0.4% of shares; institutions hold >100% of float (lending). Other directors likely received identical 1 Oct grants; only the filings above were read.

07Recent News & Catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
7 Oct 2026	Company	Investor Day, New York: innovation strategy, partnerships, live hyperspectral-camera demo. Stock indicated ▲ 11% after hours into the event.	Yes — today
6 Oct 2026	Business Wire	Q1 FY27: revenue $222.8M (+6.5%, core +8.1%), adj. EPS $0.08, adj. EBITDA $41.6M (18.7%); FY27 guide raised to $885–890M / $181–183M.	Yes — driving
6 Oct 2026	Company	Collaboration and equity investment in Hinalea Imaging (hyperspectral imaging for food safety).	Context
4–6 Oct 2026	Pomerantz / SBS Law	Law firms announce investigations of possible securities claims tied to the HYCOAT disclosure.	Yes
30 Sep 2026	Guggenheim	Target $12 → $14, Buy; FDA selloff "overdone".	Context
29 Sep 2026	FDA / Benzinga	Warning letter (dated 23 Sep) on HYCOAT equine product contamination made public; stock −7.2% to $12.73.	Yes — response ~14 Oct
8 Sep 2026	Company	Investor Day set for 7 Oct.	Context
26 Aug 2026	Piper Sandler	Upgrade to Overweight, target $14.	Context
4 Aug 2026	ACCC	Phase 2 review of Zoetis' purchase of Neogen Genomics (up to 90 business days); decision expected by ~Dec.	No — after
30 Jul 2026	Business Wire	Q4 FY26 beat; FY27 initial guide; stock +22.7%.	Context

Newest first. "In window" means the event or its consequence falls inside 7 Oct – ~18 Nov 2026.

Catalysts inside the window

7 Oct Investor Day — long-range margin and growth framing; moves the multiple. ~9–10 Oct 10-Q filing — litigation and FDA disclosure language. ~14 Oct HYCOAT warning-letter response due (15 working days from 23 Sep) — regulatory tail. Mid–late Oct broker target revisions after the beat — consensus $14 likely drifts up. November first Petrifilm production in Lansing — supply-continuity headlines. Next earnings (~early Jan 2027) and the ACCC Genomics decision (~Dec) fall outside.

08Ratings & Price Targets — Peer Frame

Company	Price	Market cap	TTM revenue	P/S TTM	Rev growth (latest Q, YoY)	Source view	News sentiment
NEOG	$13.27	$2.89B	$884M	3.27×	+6.5%	Buy · $14	Mixed
IDEXX (IDXX)	$515.41	$40.60B	$4.55B	8.92×	+10.0%	Buy · $701	Positive
Bio-Techne (TECH)	$72.40	$11.35B	$1.22B	9.34×	+1.0%	Hold · $70.73	Neutral
Bio-Rad (BIO)	$369.14	$9.87B	$2.59B	3.81×	−0.1%	Hold · $328	Neutral
QIAGEN (QGEN)	$44.84	$9.27B	$2.10B	4.35×	0.0%	Buy · $46.27	Neutral
Peer median	—	$10.61B	$2.35B	6.64×	+0.5%	—	—

NEOG at the 6 Oct after-hours last trade; peers at the latest StockAnalysis quote (6–7 Oct). Peer growth from the latest reported quarter (IDXX, BIO, QGEN calendar Q2 2026; TECH fiscal Q4 2026). No pure-play listed food-safety peer exists in the US; these are diagnostics and life-science tools comparables. NEOG ranks 2nd of 5 on growth and 5th of 5 on P/S.

8.5Analyst Price Targets — Multiple Sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / source	Current target	Previous	Date	Implied return	Rating	Direction
Guggenheim · Subbu Nambi	$14.00	$12.00	29 Sep 2026	+5.5%	Buy	▲ Raised
William Blair · Brandon Vazquez	—	—	28 Sep 2026	—	Market Perform	► Maintained
Piper Sandler · David Westenberg	$14.00	$14.00	15 Sep 2026	+5.5%	Overweight	► Maintained
Piper Sandler (upgrade)	$14.00	$13.00	26 Aug 2026	+5.5%	Overweight	▲ Raised
Piper Sandler	$13.00	$11.00	3 Aug 2026	−2.0%	Neutral	▲ Raised
Piper Sandler	$10.00	$6.50	12 Jan 2026	−24.6%	Neutral	▲ Raised
Guggenheim	$12.00	$8.00	9 Jan 2026	−9.6%	Buy	▲ Raised
CJS Securities (upgrade)	$10.00	$10.00	10 Dec 2025	−24.6%	Mkt Outperform	► Maintained

Newest first. Implied return vs the $13.27 after-hours last trade (6 Oct). Older rows are superseded by later actions from the same broker and are shown for direction of travel. Sources: StockAnalysis, Benzinga, Investing.com.

Metric	Value
Last close (6 Oct)	$11.96
Last trade (6 Oct after-hours, post-release)	$13.27
Consensus target	$14.00
Median target	$14.00
High target	$14.00
Low target	$10.00
Implied upside to consensus	+5.5%
Implied downside to low	−24.6%
Analysts contributing	4 (StockAnalysis); 5 (MarketBeat, $12.00)

Target range vs last trade $13.27

09Fundamental Financial Analysis — Company Trends & Peer Comparison

+8.1

core revenue growth in Q1 FY27 — the fastest since FY23

Food Safety +8.1%, Animal Safety +8.0% core; ~400 bp and ~100 bp respectively from order timing. Reported growth +6.5% after FX and divestitures.

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (diluted)	Gross margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs est.	Next-day reaction
Q1 FY26 (Aug-25)	$209.2M	−7.2%	−3.6%	$0.17	45.4%	$35.5M	17.0%	Beat	+16.5%
Q2 FY26 (Nov-25)	$224.7M	+7.4%	−2.9%	−$0.07^e	47.5%	$48.7M	21.7%	Beat	+31.6%
Q3 FY26 (Feb-26)	$211.2M	−6.0%	−4.4%	−$0.08	46.9%	$48.2M	22.8%	Beat	−2.9%
Q4 FY26 (May-26)	$225.3M	+6.7%	−0.1%	−$0.05	47.8%	$45.4M	20.2%	Beat	+22.7%
Q1 FY27 (Aug-26)	$222.8M	−1.1%	+6.5%	−$0.05	47.4%	$41.6M	18.7%	Beat	+11.0%*
Q2–Q4 FY27 implied by guide	$662–667M	—	+0.2–0.9%	—	—	$139–141M	~21%	Above cons.	—

Fiscal year ends 31 May. Reported revenue includes divestitures through FY26 (cleaners & disinfectants; ~6.6 pts headwind in Q2 FY26). *6 Oct after-hours vs close; the first regular session on the results is 7 Oct. Implied remainder = FY27 guide less Q1, compared with Q2–Q4 FY26 ($661.2M revenue, $142.3M adj. EBITDA). Prior-year quarters: Q1 FY25 $217.0M, Q2 FY25 $231.3M, Q3 FY25 $221.0M, Q4 FY25 $225.5M.

Revenue $M · own band

Adj. EBITDA margin % · own band

Revenue and margin share an x axis but not a scale, so they sit in two bands. Margin peaked at 22.8% in Q3 FY26 and has eased two quarters as duplicate Petrifilm costs build.

9.1 — Liquidity ratios

Metric	31 Aug 2026	31 May 2026	31 May 2025	Target / status
Current ratio	3.90	3.82	3.32	1.5–3.0 healthy · above range (cash + inventory heavy)
Quick ratio	2.92	2.91	2.22	≥1.0 healthy · comfortable
Cash ratio	1.15	1.17	0.74	Cash $172.0M / $185.5M / $129.0M

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current ratio	Net cash position	Liquidity status
NEOG	3.90	−$602M	Liquid, but levered
IDXX	1.17	−$899M	Tight, strong cash flow
BIO	3.14	+$248M	Strong
QGEN	2.85	−$860M	Strong
TECH	4.55	−$24M	Strong
Peer median	3.00	−$442M	—

9.2 — Leverage and solvency

Metric	31 Aug 2026	31 May 2026	31 May 2025	Target / status
Debt-to-equity	0.37	0.39	0.44	Lower is safer · falling
Debt-to-assets	0.23	0.24	0.27	<0.5 conservative
Interest coverage (EBIT)	−0.1×	−0.4×	n/m	>2.5 healthy · fails on GAAP; 3.3× on TTM adj. EBITDA
Debt service coverage	2.5×^e	2.4×^e	—	>1.25 · (OCF + interest) ÷ interest; no scheduled amortisation assumed

31 Aug 2026 uses long-term debt ($774.2M) and Q1 FY27 figures; 31 May columns use total debt ($812.6M; $914.3M). Net debt ÷ TTM adj. EBITDA ≈ 3.3×; ~$140M Genomics proceeds would bring it to ~2.5×.

9.3 — Profitability ratios

Metric	Q1 FY27	TTM	Q1 FY26	FY2026	FY2025	Trend
Gross margin	47.4%	47.4%	45.4%	46.9%	47.1%	▲ YoY
Operating margin	−0.8%	−0.8%	−7.7%	−2.5%	0.0%^†	▲
Net margin	−5.3%	−6.3%	17.4%^‡	−0.9%	−122.1%	→
Adj. EBITDA margin	18.7%	20.8%	17.0%	20.4%	20.6%	→
Return on assets	−1.4% ann.	−1.7%	n/m	−0.2%	−27%	→
Return on equity	−2.3% ann.	−2.7%	n/m	−0.4%	−42%	→
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	—	−6.3% × 0.27 × 1.59	—	−0.9% × 0.26 × 1.63	impairment-driven	→

† FY25 operating margin excludes the $1,059M goodwill impairment (data-provider basis); net margin includes it. ‡ Q1 FY26 net income includes a divestiture gain. TTM = Q2 FY26 – Q1 FY27; GAAP figures, except adj. EBITDA.

Peer comparison	Gross	Op margin	Net margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Profitability rank
NEOG	47.4%	−0.8%	−6.3%	20.8%	−2.7%	5 of 5
IDXX	62.5%	32.2%	25.0%	35.6%	74.2%	1 of 5
QGEN	66.4%	26.2%	19.5%	35.0%	11.9%	2 of 5
TECH	66.2%	22.6%	15.0%	27.5%	9.0%	3 of 5
BIO	52.0%	10.5%	8.6%	17.0%	3.1%	4 of 5
Peer median	64.3%	24.4%	17.2%	31.2%	10.5%	—

Peer EBITDA margins are reported (GAAP) EBITDA, TTM; NEOG's is adjusted, which flatters the comparison.

9.4 — Efficiency and growth

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year	Comment
Asset turnover	0.27×	0.22× (FY25)	Up as impairment shrank the base
Days sales outstanding	56 days	60 (31 May)	Q1 annualised
Inventory days	114 days	131 (31 May 25)	Inventory $146.1M; Petrifilm safety stock building
Adj. EPS growth (YoY)	+100%	—	$0.04 → $0.08 in Q1
FCF margin	5.6%^e	−5.2% (FY25)	TTM FCF ~$50M; capex $35M TTM
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	No dividend

Platform metric	Q1 FY27	Q1 FY26	YoY	Comment
Food Safety revenue	$163.2M	$152.0M	+7.4%	Core +8.1%
Animal Safety revenue	$59.6M	$57.2M	+4.2%	Core +8.0%
Indicator testing / media	—	—	+11%	Petrifilm franchise
Adj. gross margin	49.8%	49.5%	+30 bp	Duplicate costs absorbed
Capex	$8.2M	$24.0M	−66%	Transfer build-out ending
Global strategic accounts	—	—	+6.2%	Pacing to 8%+ for FY27

Company	Asset turnover	Rev / employee	Employees	EPS growth	Div yield	Growth rank
NEOG	0.27	$335K	2,636	+100% (adj., Q1)	0.0%	2 of 5
IDXX	1.34	$414K	11,000	+18% (Q2)	0.0%	1 of 5
TECH	0.47	$405K	3,000	+4.6% (FY27e)	0.44%	3 of 5
QGEN	0.36	$368K	5,700	flat (CER)	6.13%*	4 of 5
BIO	0.25	$348K	7,450	—	0.0%	5 of 5
Peer median	0.42	$387K	6,575	—	0.2%	—

*QGEN yield as reported by the data provider; likely includes a one-off capital return. Growth rank is on latest-quarter revenue growth.

9.5 — Market valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM (GAAP)	n/m	TTM EPS −$0.26
P/E on adj. EPS	36.9×	TTM adj. EPS $0.36; 42.8× FY27e $0.31
Price / book	1.39×	Book $2.09B; goodwill + intangibles $2.37B exceed it — tangible book negative
Price / sales TTM	3.27×	51% discount to peer median
EV / adj. EBITDA	19.0×	19.2× FY27 guide midpoint
PEG	~4.2	Data-provider forward basis

Price / sales	Price	Market cap	TTM revenue	P/S TTM	vs peer median
NEOG	$13.27	$2.89B	$0.88B	3.27×	−51%
IDXX	$515.41	$40.60B	$4.55B	8.92×	+34%
TECH	$72.40	$11.35B	$1.22B	9.34×	+41%
QGEN	$44.84	$9.27B	$2.10B	4.35×	−34%
BIO	$369.14	$9.87B	$2.59B	3.81×	−43%
Peer median	—	$10.61B	$2.35B	6.64×	—

Earnings & growth-adjusted	TTM EPS	P/E TTM	Rev growth	PEG	Assessment
NEOG	−$0.26 ($0.36 adj.)	n/m (36.9× adj.)	+6.5%	~4.2	Cheap on sales, expensive on earnings — a margin-recovery bet
IDXX	$14.22	36.2×	+10.0%	2.38	Premium for quality compounding
TECH	$1.16	62.4×	+1.0%	n/a	Rich on depressed earnings
QGEN	$1.97	22.5×	0.0%	3.04	Value within tools
BIO	$8.26	44.7×	−0.1%	n/a	Ex-growth, Sartorius stake drives book
Peer median	—	40.5×	+0.5%	2.71	—

The valuation leaves room only one way at a time. On sales NEOG trades at half the peer multiple; on earnings it is already priced for the FY29 margin step-up. Inside a month, that means upside needs Investor Day to make the margin path more believable — the numbers alone are in the price.

10Regime Analysis — Persistency & Volatility

−0.080

Persistency, at the 2nd percentile of its history — placing NEOG in Q2 Volatile Chop

289 daily observations, 13 Aug 2025 – 6 Oct 2026. Volatility +0.292 (79th percentile). As of 6 Oct 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 7 Oct report date.

10.1 — Regime trace

NEOG — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (289 daily points, oldest faint → newest bright)

Q1 Volatile trend · 14.5% Q2 Volatile chop · 35.6% Q3 Quiet range · 32.2% Q4 Quiet drift · 17.6% Current (6 Oct)

Persistency on x, Volatility on y, oldest faint to newest bright. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily, 13 Aug 2025 – 6 Oct 2026, 289 observations. As of 6 Oct 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date (CURRENT). The 7 Oct post-print move is not yet in the series.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	−0.080	−0.006	0.075	−0.118	0.150	2.1	Random / Neutral band, but near the floor of its own range — moves have been retracing, not extending
Volatility	0.292	0.002	0.289	−0.497	0.500	79.2	Elevated Vol — wide ranges and larger gaps; rose from −0.45 in mid-September

Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 12 consecutive sessions (since 21 Sep). Not borderline: Persistency sits 0.080 and Volatility 0.292 from the axes. As of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind. Persistency drifted from +0.15 (Mar–Jul, trending) through zero on 31 Jul and has fallen steadily since.

10.3 — Regime occupancy and transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of period	Character
Q1	Volatile trend	14.5	Mar–Apr 2026 post-crash rebound
Q2	Volatile chop	35.6	Earnings-gap periods; now
Q3	Quiet range	32.2	Most of Sep–Nov 2025
Q4	Quiet drift	17.6	May–Jul 2026 grind

Transition	Count	Note
Quiet range → Volatile chop	4	Most common — gaps out of quiet bases (the Sep 2026 path)
Volatile chop → Quiet range	3	Chop has tended to resolve quietly, not into trend
Volatile trend → Quiet drift	3	Trends cooled rather than reversed
Quiet drift → Volatile trend	3	Earnings-led re-acceleration
Volatile chop → Volatile trend	1	Rare — Mar 2026 only
Volatile trend → Volatile chop	1	Rare

Transitions counted on the sampled daily trace, 13 Aug 2025 – 6 Oct 2026, as of 6 Oct 2026 (1 trading day behind).

Persistency moves slowly.

The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks — NEOG held −0.060 from August 2025 to February 2026, a long vertical run on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. These statistics describe the stated window and are not predictions.

11Driver Exposure — Market & Sector Covariation

97.2

of daily variance is company-specific

Regression on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 500 overlapping observations, 8 Oct 2024 – 6 Oct 2026. Drivers as of 6 Oct 2026 — 1 trading day behind.

11.1 — Driver correlation table

Factor	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d (current)	Rolling min	Rolling max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	0.015	0.0	0.108	−0.312	0.247	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 2	0.066	0.4	−0.230	−0.277	0.452	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 3	−0.025	0.1	0.313	−0.367	0.313	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 4	0.008	0.0	−0.011	−0.165	0.279	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 5	−0.014	0.0	−0.096	−0.254	0.188	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.164	2.7	−0.202	−0.558	0.159	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 2	0.042	0.2	0.314	−0.110	0.357	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 3	−0.034	0.1	0.067	−0.369	0.262	Variable	Neutral

Daily log returns vs first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values, 8 Oct 2024 – 6 Oct 2026, 500 observations; rolling window 60 sessions. Correlations are never coloured. Drivers as of 6 Oct 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date (CURRENT).

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic decomposition

Systematic 2.8%

Idiosyncratic 97.2%

Systematic segment widened to 12% for legibility; true share 2.8%.

Factor	Raw beta	Standardised beta	Share of explained variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	0.000068	0.030	0.04%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.1973	−0.167	2.74%

Share of explained variance is each driver's contribution to total return variance (βᵢ·cov(xᵢ, r)/var(r)); together they sum to the 2.8% R².

NEOG is neither a beta vehicle nor a sector proxy — it is about as idiosyncratic as a listed stock gets. For the next 10–30 days the company decides the month: index hedges have historically offset almost none of its moves, and a market sell-off is not the risk to watch.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 against NEOG daily returns, 60-session windows, every second session plotted. Market Driver 1 has stayed inside ±0.31 throughout and reads +0.11 now; Sector Driver 1 sank to −0.56 in spring 2026 and has recovered to −0.20 — a persistent, mild inverse link to the primary sector driver rather than a dependency.

12Performance by Market Regime

Every group is named, never its proxy. Conditional statistics describe 8 Oct 2024 – 5 Oct 2026 (499 sessions with both NEOG returns and market-regime readings) and are not forecasts. With 97% of NEOG's variance idiosyncratic, large Sharpe spreads mostly record which regime happened to contain its earnings gaps — notably the −33.8% day on 9 Apr 2025, which fell in a Volatile chop market.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q4 Quiet drift

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative return	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Q3 Quiet range	109	21.8%	+47.5%	+145.7%	55.9%	2.61	53.2%	+27.44%	−9.72%
Q4 Quiet drift Current	130	26.1%	+36.7%	+83.4%	57.8%	1.44	53.1%	+20.42%	−11.56%
Q1 Volatile trend	101	20.2%	+1.4%	+3.4%	59.2%	0.06	54.5%	+6.09%	−19.04%
Q2 Volatile chop	159	31.9%	−57.3%	−74.0%	71.0%	−1.04	41.5%	+11.47%	−33.82%

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q4 Quiet drift

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative return	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Q1 Volatile trend	101	20.2%	+19.8%	+57.0%	46.5%	1.23	55.4%	+6.79%	−11.52%
Q4 Quiet drift Current	90	18.0%	+17.1%	+55.6%	62.7%	0.89	52.2%	+20.42%	−11.56%
Q3 Quiet range	140	28.1%	+23.8%	+46.9%	55.1%	0.85	51.4%	+27.44%	−9.72%
Q2 Volatile chop	168	33.7%	−49.7%	−64.3%	74.8%	−0.86	43.5%	+11.47%	−33.82%

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q4 Quiet drift

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative return	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Q4 Quiet drift Thin sample Current	16	3.2%	+10.4%	+377.9%	54.4%	6.94	68.8%	+6.84%	−7.49%
Q3 Quiet range	227	45.5%	+26.1%	+29.3%	58.5%	0.50	49.8%	+27.44%	−11.56%
Q1 Volatile trend	33	6.6%	−3.1%	−21.3%	41.6%	−0.51	51.5%	+5.59%	−4.73%
Q2 Volatile chop	223	44.7%	−35.2%	−38.8%	68.9%	−0.56	48.0%	+11.47%	−33.82%

Best row green, worst red among buckets with ≥30 days; thin samples are faded and excluded from best/worst calls. Market regimes as of 5 Oct 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

12.2 — Cross-group summary grid

Group	Current regime	Best regime for NEOG	Worst regime	Cum. return in current	Sharpe in current	Sharpe spread	Days in current
US market	Q4 Quiet drift	Q3 Quiet range	Q2 Volatile chop	+36.7%	1.44	3.65	22
SP500	Q4 Quiet drift	Q1 Volatile trend	Q2 Volatile chop	+17.1%	0.89	2.09	22
Global market	Q4 Quiet drift Thin	Q3 Quiet range	Q2 Volatile chop	+10.4%	6.94	1.06	16
Technology	Q3 Quiet range	Q3 Quiet range	Q2 Volatile chop	+66.7%	1.57	2.49	95
Financials	Q1 Volatile trend	Q4 Quiet drift	Q2 Volatile chop	+20.2%	1.79	3.97	10
Energy	Q1 Volatile trend	Q3 Quiet range	Q2 Volatile chop	+17.4%	0.72	1.65	71
Utilities	Q2 Volatile chop	Q2 Volatile chop	Q1 Volatile trend	+27.2%	0.67	2.18	16
Europe	Q1 Volatile trend	Q3 Quiet range	Q1 Volatile trend	−44.6%	−1.28	3.07	15
Gold	Q2 Volatile chop	Q2 Volatile chop	Q3 Quiet range	−7.5%	−0.07	0.24	275
VIX Near	Q4 Quiet drift	Q4 Quiet drift	Q2 Volatile chop	+19.6%	1.55	2.47	25
VIX Mid	Q4 Quiet drift	Q3 Quiet range	Q2 Volatile chop	+22.2%	0.81	2.05	106
Bonds near	Q1 Volatile trend	Q3 Quiet range	Q1 Volatile trend	−15.0%	−1.34	2.08	10
Bonds mid	Q1 Volatile trend	Q2 Volatile chop	Q4 Quiet drift	−17.1%	−0.92	5.01	12
Bonds long	Q2 Volatile chop	Q2 Volatile chop	Q3 Quiet range	+45.7%	2.19	2.38	5

All 14 mapped groups. Sharpe spread = best minus worst Sharpe among regimes with ≥30 days. "Days in current" counts consecutive sessions in the current regime to 5 Oct 2026.

12.3 — Sensitivity callouts

Largest spreads sit in bonds and the US market (Bonds mid 5.01, Financials 3.97, US market 3.65). Because NEOG barely co-moves with any of them, read these as calendar coincidence — which regimes held its four earnings gaps — not as economic sensitivity.

US market has been in Quiet drift for 22 sessions. Historically NEOG returned 83.4% annualised in that regime (Sharpe 1.44, 130 days) — equivalent to about +5% per 20 sessions if the regime persisted, with a one-sigma 20-session range near ±16%. That is history over this window, not a forecast, and the drift contains the Jan and Jul 2026 earnings gaps.

Technology has sat in Quiet range for 95 sessions — NEOG's best Technology regime (Sharpe 1.57, 204 days). The configuration is favourable, but long-lived, so it says little about the next month.

The configuration is mildly favourable but not decisive. Every headline group is in a regime where NEOG's history is positive, yet NEOG's own regime (Volatile chop, Persistency 2nd percentile) argues against extrapolating gaps. The company-level read dominates.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 8 Oct 2024 – 5 Oct 2026, not the future. Rows marked thin sample hold fewer than 30 days and their annualised figures should not be relied on. Market regime series as of 5 Oct 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

13News & Market Narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
7 Oct 26	Neogen shares jump ~11% after hours on Q1 beat and raised FY27 guidance; Investor Day follows on 7 Oct	Positive
6 Oct 26	Neogen reports Q1 FY27: revenue $222.8M vs $204.7M est.; core growth 8.1%; adj. EBITDA margin +170 bp	Positive
6 Oct 26	Neogen raises FY27 revenue view to $885–890M from $880–885M	Positive
6 Oct 26	Neogen down 8.1% into the print; GuruFocus flags "still overvalued"	Negative
6 Oct 26	Pomerantz investigates claims on behalf of Neogen investors	Negative
6 Oct 26	Neogen enters collaboration, invests in Hinalea Imaging	Neutral
4 Oct 26	SBS Law: NEOG investors may join fraud investigation	Negative
30 Sep 26	Guggenheim lifts target to $14; selloff after FDA warning letter "overdone"	Positive
29 Sep 26	Neogen drops 7.2% after FDA warning over HYCOAT contamination linked to equine infections	Negative
29 Sep 26	Why Neogen stock is falling: caution and >11M shares short ahead of earnings	Negative
26 Aug 26	Piper Sandler upgrades Neogen to Overweight on turnaround progress	Positive
30 Jul 26	Neogen tops Q4 FY26 estimates; shares jump	Positive

Newest first. Narrative has flipped twice in ten days: regulatory and legal fear (29 Sep – 6 Oct), then results relief (6 Oct after hours).

14Company Snapshot

Field	Neogen Corporation	Peer context
Legal name	Neogen Corporation	—
Exchange / IPO	Nasdaq Global Select (NEOG) · IPO 23 Aug 1989	IDXX, TECH, QGEN on Nasdaq/NYSE; BIO NYSE
Domicile	Michigan, USA · HQ Lansing, MI	QGEN Netherlands; others US
Sector / industry	Health Care · Diagnostics & Research (food and animal safety testing)	—
Market cap	$2.89B at $13.27	Smallest of five; peer median $10.6B
Employees	2,636	Peer median ~6,600
TTM revenue	$884.0M (Food Safety ~73%, Animal Safety ~27%)	Peer median $2.35B
Revenue model	Recurring consumables: indicator tests (Petrifilm), culture media, pathogen and allergen kits, sanitation monitoring; veterinary instruments, biosecurity, rodenticides; Genomics (being sold to Zoetis)	Razor/blade testing model, like IDXX in companion animal
Key differentiators	Petrifilm indicator-plate franchise (ex-3M Food Safety, merged 2022); breadth across the food-production chain; in-house manufacturing transfer to Lansing	Competes with bioMérieux, Thermo Fisher, Hygiena, Merck KGaA
CIK	0000711377	—
Website	neogen.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · high variance

The quarter strengthened the bull case — +8.1% core growth, a fifth straight beat, a guide raise and a visible path to sub-3× leverage — but the 7 Oct gap to $13.27 has already taken the stock to within 6% of the $14 consensus and both current broker targets, and NEOG's own regime (Volatile chop, Persistency at the 2nd percentile) has rewarded fading such gaps. We expect a $12–14 range for the window. The view flips Bullish on a hold above $13 after Investor Day with targets moving above $15, and Bearish on a close back below $12, most likely triggered by an FDA escalation on HYCOAT or a filed securities suit.

Volatility Farm

1 · Daily prices 7 Oct 2024 – 5 Oct 2026 from the Massive market-data API; 6 Oct 2026 bar, 6 Oct after-hours last trade ($13.27, 21:16 ET), 52-week range, implied and historical volatility from Interactive Brokers. Last completed session 6 Oct 2026 close ($11.96). Peer quotes and statistics from StockAnalysis (6–7 Oct 2026).
2 · Financial statements from Neogen's Q1 FY26 – Q1 FY27 earnings releases (Business Wire / SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1), the FY2026 10-K, Q1 FY27 earnings call; peer releases (IDEXX Q2-26, Bio-Rad Q2-26, QIAGEN Q2-26, Bio-Techne Q4 FY26); SEC Form 4 filings; FDA, ACCC and NZ Commerce Commission notices; analyst actions via StockAnalysis, Benzinga, Investing.com, MarketBeat.
3 · Persistency and Volatility from the Trader workbook (Individual regimes daily), as of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind; Market and Sector Drivers (the workbook's market and sector driver tabs) as of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind; market regimes (Market regimes daily) as of 5 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. Status: CURRENT.
4 · Derived, not reported: TTM revenue, TTM adj. EBITDA ($183.9M), TTM GAAP net loss and EPS, TTM margins, ROA/ROE and DuPont terms; market cap, EV and all multiples at $13.27; net debt and leverage; Q2 FY26 GAAP EPS (^e); Q1 FY26 segment revenue (back-calculated from reported growth); implied Q2–Q4 FY27 guide; liquidity, leverage, DSO, inventory days, debt-service coverage (^e) and FCF margin (^e); HYCOAT response date (~14 Oct, 15 working days from the 23 Sep letter); peer medians and ranks; all regime, driver and regime-conditional statistics.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 7 Oct 2026. Regime and driver statistics are descriptive of their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.