Close 6 Oct 2026
$64.21
Q4 FY26 sales grew 68% to $566.7M and non-GAAP EPS of $1.00 beat the $0.77 consensus by 30%. FY27 sales guidance was raised to $2.43B (+40%) from $2.17B. The stock traded about 5% higher after hours. But it had already risen 24% in 30 sessions and 11.6% on 2 October alone, gross margin fell 210 bps, and operating cash flow was −$151.9M for the year as receivables and inventory tripled. Over the next 10–30 days the gain holds only if post-print target raises and the late-October memory and AI-server prints confirm demand before the July pattern repeats: +25% on the print, then −28% in 21 sessions.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | +24.1% in 30 sessions into the print, including +11.6% on 2 Oct. 6 Oct volume was 15.4M shares, 7.8× the 30-day average. About +5% after hours on the release (~$67.50). Still −21.1% from the $81.39 high of 9 Jul; +228% YTD from $19.56. | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Q4 sales $566.7M, +68% YoY and +18% QoQ, after +48% in Q3. FY26 $1,731.5M (+26%), with the second half +58%. FY27 guide raised to $2.43B (+40% ±10%) from $2.17B: Advanced Computing ~+40%, Memory ~+50%. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Non-GAAP gross margin 28.8% against 30.9% a year ago (−210 bps) as lower-margin memory grew to 60% of sales. FY26 GAAP operating margin 9.6%, the lowest in the peer set. FY27 gross margin guide 28% ±2. | Bearish |
| Valuation vs peers | 14.4× FY27 non-GAAP EPS guide ($4.45) against a 17.4× peer forward median. P/S 1.90× against 2.32×. EV/adj. EBITDA ~13.5× against 18.3×. PEG 0.41 on the guided EPS growth. | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | Integrated Memory $340.8M (+158%). Advanced Computing $154.0M (+11%), with non-hyperscale AI +99%. Optimized LED $71.9M (−7%). Growth is concentrated in memory, where price is a large part of the move. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Cash $647.2M against $788.9M of debt (net debt $142M) after a $750M 0% convertible due 2031. FY26 operating cash flow −$151.9M against $180.6M of GAAP net income. Receivables +159% to $796M, inventory +193% to $749M. | Bearish |
| Regime state | Q2 Volatile Chop on the boundary: Persistency −0.0089, within 0.05 of zero, and Volatility +0.160. Held 11 sessions since leaving Volatile Trend on 22 Sep. As of 6 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 83.5% idiosyncratic on the drivers, but the one-year beta to the S&P 500 is 3.35 (correlation 0.52) and the correlation with the technology sector fund is 0.65. A 3% index pullback maps to about −10% for PENG. As of 6 Oct 2026. | Bearish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | A repeat of July: +25.1% on the Q3 print, then −28.3% over the next 21 sessions. With 19.7% of float short, covering can inflate the first day and then fade. A softer memory-price read from SK hynix or Samsung in late October would hit the segment that is now 60% of sales. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Post-print target resets (7–9 Oct, just before). SK hynix and Samsung Q3 results and DRAM contract prices (late Oct), hyperscaler capex prints (late Oct), FOMC 27–28 Oct, SMCI and AMD results (~early Nov), all expected. The 10-K with full cash-flow detail is due by early Nov. PENG's next report (~early Jan) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. Strong print, crowded entry. The fundamentals improved: growth accelerated, the guide went up and the stock is cheap on forward earnings. The entry did not improve: the run-up, short interest and a 3.35 market beta make the path volatile, and cash conversion is poor. 10 of 14 market groups sit in regimes where PENG has had a positive Sharpe. Composite 6.8 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (17 Oct – 6 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 5 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
The quarter was the best in the company's recent history and the outlook went up. The question for the next month is not whether the business is growing but how much of it was bought in the 30 sessions before the print, and whether the memory cycle that drives most of the growth stays firm through late-October data.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (5.25). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.25 + 1.60 + 0.99 + 0.54 + 0.53 + 0.60 + 0.25 = 6.8 (6.76).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-print fade / squeeze | Technical | 24% run-up; 19.7% short interest; July precedent | Yes |
| Memory price read | Competitive | 60% of Q4 sales tied to DRAM pricing | Yes |
| Market beta / FOMC | Macro | Beta 3.35; US market in PENG's worst regime | Yes |
| AI-server peer prints | Competitive | SMCI, AMD at the end of the window | Possible |
| 10-K working-capital detail | Financial | OCF −$151.9M; receivables +159% | Possible |
| Memory down-cycle | Competitive | Module prices follow DRAM | Structural |
| Scale disadvantage | Competitive | Smallest AI-infrastructure vendor in the set | Structural |
| Dilution | Financial | 64M diluted vs 51M basic shares | Structural |
Nothing on the balance sheet forces a problem inside a month: the $750M convert carries no coupon and runs to 2031. What can hurt PENG in the window is positioning after a 24% run and any wobble in memory pricing or the broad tape, all amplified by a beta above three.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ4 FY26 (Aug-26) | 6 Oct 2026 | $566.7M | n/a | $1.29 (adj $1.00) | +29.5% | AH ~+5% |
| FQ3 FY26 (May-26) | 7 Jul 2026 | $478.7M | n/a | $0.68 (adj $0.84) | +49.3% | +25.1% |
| FQ2 FY26 (Feb-26) | 1 Apr 2026 | $343.0M | n/a | $0.58 (adj $0.52) | +23.1% | +13.4% |
| FQ1 FY26 (Nov-25) | 6 Jan 2026 | $343.1M | n/a | $0.04 (adj $0.49) | +12.3% | −13.8% |
| FQ4 FY25 (Aug-25) | 7 Oct 2025 | $337.9M | n/a | $0.11 (adj $0.43) | +18.5% | −16.0% |
| FQ3 FY25 (May-25) | 8 Jul 2025 | $324.3M | n/a | −$0.01 (adj $0.47) | +45.6% | +10.6% |
All reports come after the close; the reaction is the next session's close-to-close move. EPS surprise is on non-GAAP EPS against consensus. Revenue consensus was not available for these quarters (n/a). 21-session moves after the next-day close, oldest to newest: −2.5%, −4.7%, +1.1%, +56.6%, −28.3%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENG | n/c | 100% (8/8) | FY27 raised to $2.43B |
| PENG (since Jan 2024) | — | 92% (11/12) | One miss (Oct 2024) |
| Peer median (last 4) | n/c | 100% | SMCI 3/4; HPE, NTAP, Dell 4/4 known |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | ~early Jan 2027 | Outside the 10–30 day window |
| Q1 FY27 guide | None | Annual outlook only |
| FY27 net sales | $2.43B (+40% ±10%) | Raised from $2.17B; range ~$2.19–2.67B |
| Segment growth | AC ~+40% / Memory ~+50% | LED not guided |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 28% ±2 | FY26 29.3%; midpoint implies −130 bps |
| Non-GAAP opex | ~$275M ±10% | Operating leverage on +40% sales |
| FY27 EPS | $4.45 ±0.70 adj / $3.50 GAAP | +55% adj at the midpoint; 63M diluted shares |
The next Penguin print is not in the window. The guide raise does lift estimates, so October's move depends on how far analysts lift targets and on outside data (memory prices, AI-server peers), not on new company numbers.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Rosenblatt | Bullish | Buy reiterated, $80 target, on 2 Oct; the stock rose 11.6% that day |
| Jul 2026 (post-Q3) | Citizens, Needham, Stifel, Rosenblatt | Bullish | Targets raised to $85, $80, $75 and $80 within two days of the Q3 print |
| Jul 2026 | Barclays | Bearish | Downgraded to Underweight on 20 Jul at $40, after an April cut to Equal-Weight |
| May–Jun 2026 | Rosenblatt, Stifel | Bullish | Targets lifted from $24–32 to $54–66 as the AI-memory rerating began |
| Oct 2026 release | Management (CEO Kash Shaikh) | Bullish | "Our AI Infrastructure business is accelerating further" |
| Consensus | 7 analysts | Bullish | Buy; mean target $74.29, median $80, range $40–85 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus, MarketBeat, company release (6 Oct 2026), retrieved 7 Oct 2026. Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing. MarketBeat shows a lower $64.17 mean, which blends older targets.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | Anthony Frey | Award (grant) | 11,555 | $0.00 | — | Routine grant; no signal |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Anne Kuykendall | Sale | 4,000 | $49.62–51.34 | $202.3k | Regular seller; mild negative |
| 23 Jul 2026 | Joseph Clark | Sale | 1,327 | $57.47 | $76.3k | Small; no signal |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Anne Kuykendall | Sale | 739 | $56.12 | $41.5k | Small; no signal |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Anne Kuykendall | Sale | 4,000 | $62.51–65.63 | $257.5k | Sold near the highs |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Joseph Clark | Sale | 10,351 | $55.53–60.76 | $609.4k | Mild negative |
| 12 May 2026 | Sandeep Nayyar | Sale | 20,000 | $43.48–45.09 | $890.3k | Largest 2026 sale |
| 12 May 2026 | Maximiliane Straub | Sale | 12,000 | $44.34–45.00 | $537.4k | Mild negative |
| FY2026 | Company (buyback) | Repurchase | n/d | n/d | $74.4M | Supportive, but small against −$152M OCF |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed; buyback from the FY26 release. Roles are not shown because the feed does not carry them. All open-market transactions since May 2026 are sales: $2.6M in the rows listed, plus two smaller May sales (Straub 3,000 shares at $49.00; Clark 5,000 at $39.99), about $3.0M in total. No purchases were filed. The sizes are small relative to the $3.3B market cap.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~early Jan 2027 | Penguin (expected) | Q1 FY27 results; first quarter against the raised $2.43B guide | No |
| ~early Nov 2026 | SMCI, AMD (expected) | Quarterly results; AI-server and accelerator demand read | Yes, at the end |
| By early Nov 2026 | Penguin 10-K (expected) | Annual report with full cash-flow, receivables and customer-concentration detail | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; the main macro shock point for a 3.35-beta stock | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon (expected) | Quarterly results and capex guides for AI data centres | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | SK hynix, Samsung (expected) | Q3 results and memory-pricing commentary; end-October DRAM contract prices | Yes |
| 7–9 Oct 2026 | Sell-side (expected) | Post-print target resets; July saw four raises within two days | Just before |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Market | First regular session after the print; after-hours indication ~$67.50 (+5%) | Just before |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Penguin release | Q4 sales $566.7M (+68%), non-GAAP EPS $1.00; FY27 guide raised to $2.43B | No, sets the base |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Rosenblatt / market | Buy reiterated at $80; stock +11.6% to $61.36 ahead of the print | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 7 Oct 2026 report date (17 Oct – 6 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Mid–late Oct: how far the post-print target resets go, and whether short covering continues. Late Oct: SK hynix and Samsung on memory pricing, the read for 60% of Penguin's sales. Late Oct: hyperscaler capex guides. 27–28 Oct: FOMC. By early Nov: the 10-K's cash-flow detail. Early Nov: SMCI and AMD on AI-server demand.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENG | $64.21 | $3.29B | $1.73B | 1.90× | +67.7% | Buy · $74.29 | Positive |
| Super Micro (SMCI) | $43.46 | $28.6B | $39.06B | 0.73× | +93.2% | n/d · $42.38 | Mixed |
| HPE | $70.48 | $93.6B | $41.87B | 2.23× | +33.7% | Buy · $72.03 | Positive |
| NetApp (NTAP) | $228.45 | $44.9B | $7.39B | 6.07× | +29.9% | Buy · $206.06 | Positive |
| Dell | $574.00 | $365.0B | $151.20B | 2.41× | +57.7% | Buy · $585.96 | Positive |
| Peer median | — | $69.2B | $40.47B | 2.32× | +45.7% | — | — |
Prices at the 6 Oct 2026 close. PENG revenue and growth come from its FY26 release (to 28 Aug 2026); market cap uses 51.2M basic shares (on 64.0M diluted shares it is $4.11B and P/S 2.37×). Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun–Jul 2026. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target; SMCI has no consensus key. HPE and NetApp trade above their mean targets.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenblatt | $80 | $80 | 2 Oct 2026 | +24.6% | Buy | ► Reiterated |
| Barclays | $40 | $40 | 20 Jul 2026 | −37.7% | Underweight (downgrade) | ▼ Lowered (rating) |
| Barclays | $40 | $27 | 9 Jul 2026 | −37.7% | Equal-Weight | ▲ Raised |
| Citizens | $85 | $65 | 8 Jul 2026 | +32.4% | Market Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| Needham | $80 | $60 | 8 Jul 2026 | +24.6% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Stifel | $75 | $66 | 8 Jul 2026 | +16.8% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Rosenblatt | $80 | $75 | 8 Jul 2026 | +24.6% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Stifel | $66 | $24 | 2 Jun 2026 | +2.8% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
Implied return is measured against the $64.21 close on 6 Oct 2026; superseded targets are shown at their own level. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Five of the six current targets sit above the price; Barclays at $40 is the outlier. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $64.21 |
| Consensus target | $74.29 |
| Median target | $80.00 |
| High target | $85.00 |
| Low target | $40.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +15.7% |
| Implied downside to low | −37.7% |
| Analysts contributing | 7 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 7 Oct 2026. MarketBeat shows a $64.17 mean. Coverage is thin, so one reset moves the mean by several dollars.
| $40 |
| $74 |
| $80 |
| $85 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ3 FY25 (May-25) | $324.3M | n/d | n/d | −$0.01 | 29.3% | $25.3Me | 7.8% | Beat | +10.6% |
| FQ4 FY25 (Aug-25) | $337.9M | +4.2% | n/d | $0.11 | 28.6% | $22.7Me | 6.7% | Beat | −16.0% |
| FQ1 FY26 (Nov-25) | $343.1M | +1.5% | ~−3% (H1) | $0.04 | 28.0% | $20.7Me | 6.0% | Beat | −13.8% |
| FQ2 FY26 (Feb-26) | $343.0M | 0.0% | ~−3% (H1) | $0.58 | 27.3% | $66.4Me | 19.4% | Beat | +13.4% |
| FQ3 FY26 (May-26) | $478.7M | +39.6% | +47.6% | $0.68 | 27.8% | $66.7Me | 13.9% | Beat | +25.1% |
| FQ4 FY26 (Aug-26) | $566.7M | +18.4% | +67.7% | $1.29 | 27.5% | $93.0M | 16.4% | Beat | AH ~+5% |
| FY27 guide (annual) | $2,430M | — | +40% | $3.50 | ~28% adj | — | — | Raised from $2.17B | — |
FY ends late August. Reports come after the close, so the reaction is the next session. Gross margin is GAAP. Adj. EBITDA marked e is vendor EBITDA on a GAAP basis and includes non-operating items (FQ2 FY26 is lifted by them); only FQ4 FY26 ($93M) is the company's adjusted figure. Year-ago quarters for H1 FY26 were not available individually; H1 FY26 sales of $686.1M were −2.9% against H1 FY25 (derived from the FY25 total).
Revenue was flat at about $340M for four quarters, then stepped up to $479M and $567M. GAAP operating margin rose from 3.7% to 12.3% on operating leverage, even as gross margin slipped from 29.3% to 27.5%.
| Metric | 28 Aug 2026 | 29 Aug 2025 | 30 Aug 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.88 | 2.25 | 2.65 | 1.5–3.0 healthy · passed, but falling |
| Quick ratio | 1.21 | 1.61 | 1.94 | ≥1.0 healthy · passed; cash plus receivables only |
| Cash ratio | 0.54 | 0.96 | 1.17 | Cash $647.2M against $1,195.9M of current liabilities |
FY26 and FY25 from the Q4 FY26 release; FY24 is vendor data. Current liabilities rose 152% in a year as payables funded part of the inventory build.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENG (28 Aug 26) | 1.88 | −$0.14B | Adequate |
| SMCI (Jun 26) | 3.87 | −$1.72B | Strong |
| HPE (Jul 26) | 1.11 | −$14.10B | Levered |
| NetApp (Jul 26) | 1.24 | +$1.04B | Adequate |
| Dell (Jul 26) | 0.96 | −$23.71B | Levered |
| Peer median | 1.18 | −$7.91B | — |
| Metric | 28 Aug 2026 | 29 Aug 2025 | 30 Aug 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 1.47 | 1.14 | 1.83 | Lower is safer · elevated after the $750M convert |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.49 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | n/d (FY26) | ~10× | ~0.6× | >2.5 healthy · 0% coupon on the 2031 convert keeps cash interest low |
| Debt service coverage | n/m | n/d | n/d | >1.25 healthy · not meaningful with negative FY26 OCF |
Debt: $788.9M (Aug 26; $53.4M current), $461.8M (Aug 25), $717.9M (Aug 24, vendor). Equity is shareholders' equity per the release ($537.2M and $405.5M) and vendor for FY24. FY25 and FY24 coverage are vendor operating income over interest expense; FY26 interest expense was not in the summary release.
| Metric | FQ4 FY26 | TTM (= FY26) | FQ4 FY25 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 27.5% | 27.7% | 28.6% | 28.8% | 29.1% | ▼ |
| Operating margin (GAAP) | 12.3% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | ▲ (adj 13.9% vs 12.3%) |
| Net margin | 16.4% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | −4.5% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 16.4% | ~14.7%e | ~12.5%e | ~13.2%e | n/d | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 3.4% (q) | 8.2% | 0.6% (q) | 1.6% | −3.5% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 17.3% (q) | 38.3% | 2.3% (q) | 6.4% | n/m (loss) | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 10.4% × 0.79 × 4.66 | — | 1.9% × 0.89 × 3.88 | — | Margin-led, with leverage rising |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. FY26 net income $180.6M includes non-operating and tax items (GAAP net income exceeded GAAP operating income in Q4). FY24 figures are vendor data. Adj. EBITDA marked e is non-GAAP operating income plus about $3M a quarter of depreciation (derived from Q4's $93.0M against $89.8M). ROE is lifted by a small equity base: equity multiplier 4.66.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENG (FY26) | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.4% | ~14.7% | 38.3% | 5 of 5 |
| SMCI | 10.8% | 13.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 21.5% | 2 of 5 |
| HPE | 36.6% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 3 of 5 |
| NetApp | 70.6% | 26.7% | 19.2% | 28.3% | 114.8% | 1 of 5 |
| Dell | 19.9% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 11.7% | n/m | 4 of 5 |
| Peer median | 28.3% | 13.0% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 21.5% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM to Jun–Jul 2026; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures. Rank is by operating margin. Dell's ROE is not meaningful (negative equity); NetApp's reflects a small equity base after buybacks.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.79 | 0.89 (FY25) | Working capital grew faster than sales |
| Revenue per employee | ~$597k | n/d | On ~2,900 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (FY26, GAAP) | +829% | n/m (FY25 $0.28) | Non-GAAP +51% to $2.87 |
| EPS growth (FQ4 YoY, GAAP) | +1,073% | — | Non-GAAP +133% to $1.00 |
| Dividend yield | — | — | No dividend; $74.4M of FY26 buybacks |
| FCF yield | −5.0% | ~+3% (FY25) | FY26 FCF about −$164M on the current market cap |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENG | 0.79 | $597k | ~2,900 | +133% (adj) | — | 2 of 5 |
| SMCI | 1.30 | $5.58M | 7,000 | +504% | — | 1 of 5 |
| HPE | 0.50 | $625k | 67,000 | +405% | 0.83% | 4 of 5 |
| NetApp | 0.67 | $632k | 11,700 | +61% | 0.93% | 5 of 5 |
| Dell | 1.19 | $1.56M | 97,000 | +255% | 0.46% | 3 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.93 | $1.10M | 39,350 | +330% | 0.83% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY GAAP figure, which is inflated by depressed year-ago bases across the group.
| Metric | FQ4 FY26 | FQ4 FY25 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $566.7M | $337.9M | +68% | +18% QoQ |
| Integrated Memory | $340.8M | ~$132M | +158% | 60% of sales; FY26 $924.0M |
| Advanced Computing | $154.0M | ~$139M | +11% | Non-hyperscale AI +99%; FY26 $558.8M |
| Optimized LED | $71.9M | ~$77M | −7% | FY26 $248.7M |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 28.8% | 30.9% | −210 bps | Mix shift to memory |
| Non-GAAP operating income | $89.8M | $39.2M | +129% | 15.8% margin vs 11.6% |
| Accounts receivable | $796.3M | $307.9M | +159% | Grew more than twice as fast as sales |
| Inventory | $748.8M | $255.2M | +193% | Memory build ahead of FY27 demand |
| Operating cash flow (FY) | −$151.9M | +$109.1M | n/m | Working-capital build |
| Diluted shares (Q4) | 64.0M | n/d | — | FY26 average 58.8M vs 54.4M |
Year-ago segment figures are approximate (back-solved from the stated growth rates, marked ~). Receivable and inventory growth are coloured as negatives because they consume cash. Some vendor summaries show a positive FY26 operating cash flow; the release's cash-flow statement shows −$151.9M, which is used here.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM (GAAP) | 24.7× | 22.4× on non-GAAP $2.87; peer median 32.2× |
| P/E on FY27 guide (non-GAAP $4.45) | 14.4× | 18.3× on GAAP $3.50; peer forward median 17.4× |
| Price / book | 6.1× | Shareholders' equity $537.2M |
| Price / sales TTM | 1.90× | Peer median 2.32×; 2.37× on diluted shares |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~13.5× | EV ~$3.43B on ~$255M adj. EBITDA (derived); peers 18.3× |
| PEG | 0.41 | 22.4× over +55% guided non-GAAP EPS growth |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | −5.0% / — | Growth funded by the balance sheet |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENG | $64.21 | $3.29B | $1.73B | 1.90× | −18% |
| SMCI | $43.46 | $28.6B | $39.06B | 0.73× | −69% |
| HPE | $70.48 | $93.6B | $41.87B | 2.23× | −4% |
| NetApp | $228.45 | $44.9B | $7.39B | 6.07× | +162% |
| Dell | $574.00 | $365.0B | $151.20B | 2.41× | +4% |
| Peer median | — | $69.2B | $40.47B | 2.32× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENG | $2.60 | 24.7× | +67.7% | 0.41 | Discount on forward earnings; cash flow is the catch |
| SMCI | $3.28 | 13.3× | +93.2% | n/d | Cheapest; thin margins and governance history |
| HPE | $2.00 | 35.2× | +33.7% | 0.50 | Re-rated on AI servers; above mean target |
| NetApp | $7.09 | 32.2× | +29.9% | 2.14 | Quality premium; above mean target |
| Dell | $17.88 | 32.1× | +57.7% | 0.65 | Scale leader in AI servers |
| Peer median | — | 32.2× | +45.7% | 0.65 | — |
On earnings Penguin is cheaper than every peer except SMCI, and its guided growth is among the fastest. The discount reflects the weakest margins in the group and negative cash flow. Valuation supports the stock in the month; it does not protect it from a positioning unwind.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 13 Aug 2025 – 6 Oct 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 7 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.0089 | −0.1143 | 0.1792 | −0.3009 | 0.3683 | 68.5 | Random / Neutral. Crossed below zero on 22 Sep after the summer's trending phase; above its one-year mean |
| Volatility | 0.1602 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 65.4 | Elevated. Up from +0.054 on 24 Sep; the print is likely to push it higher |
Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 11 consecutive sessions. Persistency is within 0.05 of the axis (−0.0089), so the quadrant call is provisional: PENG is on the boundary between Volatile Chop and Volatile Trend. As of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 26.0% | Moves that extend; covered the April–July rally |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 24.2% | Big moves that reverse; the current state |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 49.8% | Low-volatility mean reversion; most of late 2025 |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 0.0% | Never visited |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 3 | Volatility rises before direction forms |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 3 | Moves start to extend |
| Volatile trend → Volatile chop | 3 | Trend stalls; the 22 Sep move |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 2 | Volatility fades |
Over the year, 21-day forward returns from Volatile Chop had a median of −1.0% and were positive 40% of the time (57 observations; the mean of +10.8% is skewed by April). From Volatile Trend the median was +0.7% (47% positive); from Quiet Range −0.1% (50%). Unconditionally the median was +0.4% (51% positive). As of 6 Oct 2026.
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. A reading on the axis means recent moves have neither clearly extended nor clearly reversed. With Volatility elevated, the next 10–30 days can resolve either way: a move back into Volatile Trend if the post-print direction holds, or continued chop if it does not. These statistics describe 13 Aug 2025 – 6 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.002 | 0.0 | −0.189 | −0.382 | 0.402 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.004 | 0.0 | −0.013 | −0.425 | 0.398 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.019 | 0.0 | 0.127 | −0.353 | 0.439 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | −0.346 | 0.311 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.027 | 0.1 | −0.109 | −0.374 | 0.301 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.406 | 16.5 | −0.517 | −0.726 | −0.190 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.019 | 0.0 | 0.417 | −0.623 | 0.614 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.033 | 0.1 | 0.130 | −0.391 | 0.459 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of PENG against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 8 Oct 2021 – 6 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1 is the only material link: −0.406 over five years and −0.517 on the current 60-day window, within a −0.726 to −0.190 range that has never turned positive. Drivers as of 6 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | −0.00002 | −0.006 | <0.1% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.46501 | −0.406 | >99.9% |
The drivers explain little, but the plain market beta is large: over the past year PENG has moved about 3.35 times the S&P 500 on average, with a 0.52 correlation. Its correlations with the AI-hardware peers are moderate (HPE 0.53, SMCI 0.45, Dell 0.40). For the next 10–30 days the broad risk appetite for AI infrastructure matters as much as company news, and any index drawdown will be magnified.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against PENG daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 has stayed between about −0.2 and −0.7 throughout and sits near −0.5 now, a stable negative link. Market Driver 1 oscillates around zero and is about −0.15 to −0.19 on the latest readings. As of 6 Oct 2026.
PENG daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 5 Oct 2026, 1,168 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. Returns are log returns, so the worst days look larger than simple returns (the −58.78% day is the −44.4% fall of 13 Oct 2023). The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.6% | +252.7% | +547.7% | 60.6% | 9.04 | 57.1% | +16.82% | −17.29% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 414 | 35.4% | +54.4% | +30.3% | 55.0% | 0.55 | 51.2% | +16.75% | −21.42% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 289 | 24.7% | −16.3% | −14.4% | 53.3% | −0.27 | 45.3% | +8.56% | −26.75% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 295 | 25.3% | −51.0% | −45.6% | 91.6% | −0.50 | 50.2% | +23.33% | −58.78% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 175 | 15.0% | +72.0% | +118.4% | 69.0% | 1.72 | 53.1% | +16.82% | −17.29% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 409 | 35.0% | +100.3% | +53.4% | 57.5% | 0.93 | 52.1% | +23.33% | −21.42% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 230 | 19.7% | −18.1% | −19.7% | 94.7% | −0.21 | 52.2% | +22.42% | −58.78% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 354 | 30.3% | −20.8% | −15.3% | 51.8% | −0.30 | 45.8% | +8.56% | −26.75% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 242 | 20.7% | +113.1% | +119.9% | 61.7% | 1.94 | 52.5% | +23.33% | −27.54% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 141 | 12.1% | +49.0% | +103.9% | 99.8% | 1.04 | 56.0% | +16.82% | −58.78% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 443 | 37.9% | +52.1% | +26.9% | 57.9% | 0.47 | 50.3% | +16.75% | −21.42% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 342 | 29.3% | −53.7% | −43.3% | 63.5% | −0.68 | 46.5% | +22.42% | −26.75% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded PENG return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 5 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for PENG | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −51.0% | −0.50 | 9.54 | 22 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | −18.1% | −0.21 | 2.02 | 22 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +113.1% | 1.94 | 2.62 | 16 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +144.5% | 1.12 | 2.19 | 95 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +76.0% | 2.31 | 3.26 | 10 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +76.8% | 0.87 | 1.47 | 71 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | −39.7% | −0.49 | 1.95 | 16 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +271.5% | 4.61 | 5.18 | 15 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +173.5% | 1.08 | 1.32 | 275 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +28.4% | 1.03 | 12.49 | 25 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +214.3% | 2.02 | 2.45 | 106 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +76.5% | 3.15 | 10.94 | 10 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +3.6% | 0.04 | 4.51 | 12 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −18.3% | −0.24 | 1.61 | 5 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning PENG is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 5 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 5 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Several Sharpe ratios above 4 come from short buckets that contain a few extreme days. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 5 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 26 | Penguin Q4 sales $566.7M (+68%); non-GAAP EPS $1.00 vs $0.77 consensus (company release, Business Wire) | Positive |
| 6 Oct 26 | FY27 outlook raised to $2.43B sales and $4.45 non-GAAP EPS; Advanced Computing ~+40%, Memory ~+50% (release, call slides) | Positive |
| 6 Oct 26 | Gross margin 28.8% non-GAAP vs 30.9%; FY26 operating cash flow −$151.9M (8-K exhibit) | Negative |
| 6 Oct 26 | Shares trade about 5% higher after hours on the results | Positive |
| 6 Oct 26 | Stock closes at $64.21 (+5.8%) on 15.4M shares ahead of the release | Mixed |
| 2 Oct 26 | Rosenblatt reiterates Buy, $80 target; stock +11.6% to $61.36 | Positive |
| Aug 26 | Insider sales continue (Kuykendall, 4,000 shares at ~$50) | Negative |
| 20 Jul 26 | Barclays downgrades to Underweight, $40 target | Negative |
| 9 Jul 26 | Stock peaks at $81.39 after the Q3 print, then falls 28% over the next 21 sessions | Negative |
| 8 Jul 26 | Citizens ($85), Needham ($80), Stifel ($75) and Rosenblatt ($80) raise targets after Q3 | Positive |
| 7 Jul 26 | Q3 sales $478.7M (+48%), EPS $0.84 vs $0.56; stock +25.1% next day | Positive |
| 1 Apr 26 | Q2 beat lifts the stock 13.4% from a $16.24 low (30 Mar); +57% over the following month | Positive |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release and 8-K, Yahoo Finance rating and insider feeds, MarketBeat; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "subscale memory and LED conglomerate" (early 2026) to "AI-infrastructure growth story" (since April). The July round trip shows how quickly that narrative can be repriced.
| Field | Penguin Solutions, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Penguin Solutions, Inc. (formerly SMART Global Holdings) | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NASDAQ: PENG · IPO 2017 (as SGH); renamed 2024 | SMCI NASDAQ; HPE, Dell NYSE; NetApp NASDAQ |
| Domicile | United States (California headquarters) | All peers US-based |
| Sector / industry | Information Technology · AI infrastructure, memory modules, LED | — |
| Market cap | $3.29B (51.2M basic shares × $64.21); $4.11B on 64.0M diluted | Smallest in the set; SMCI is 8.7× larger |
| Employees | ~2,900 | SMCI 7,000; NetApp 11,700 |
| TTM revenue | $1.73B (FY26 to 28 Aug 2026) | About 4% of SMCI's |
| Revenue model | Three segments: Integrated Memory (~53% of FY26), Advanced Computing (~32%: AI and HPC cluster design, integration and managed services), Optimized LED (~14%) | Peers sell servers and storage at much larger scale |
| Key differentiators | End-to-end AI-cluster build and management for non-hyperscale customers; specialty and CXL memory modules | Dell, HPE and SMCI compete for the same AI-factory budgets |
| CIK | 0001616533 | — |
| Website | penguinsolutions.com | — |
The 6 October print was the strongest in Penguin's recent history: +68% sales growth, an eighth straight EPS beat and a FY27 guide raised to $2.43B, leaving the stock at 14.4× forward earnings, below its peers. The entry is the problem. The stock rose 24% in the 30 sessions before the print, 19.7% of float is short, the market beta is 3.35, and growth is consuming cash (−$152M of FY26 operating cash flow). In July the same setup produced +25% on the print and −28% over the next month. The view turns bullish if post-print targets move to $85–95 and late-October memory data confirms firm pricing while PENG holds $61. It turns bearish if the after-hours gain fades, memory commentary softens or the index sells off, with $55 the first refill level.