Close 13 Oct 2026
$222.88
Q3 2026 combined ratio was 88.7 (89.5 a year ago) and EPS of $4.37 was about $4.60 before $170M of realised investment losses, above the $4.41 consensus. But net premiums written grew only 4% in the quarter and 2% in September, policies in force growth slowed to 6%, and a $1.3B unrealised bond loss in September cut book value growth. The shares fell ~2.6% pre-market to ~$217, after a 7.5% rally into the print. Over the next 10–30 days PGR trades with the P&C insurers and against the market; the 3 November conference call and Allstate's results decide whether growth fears or underwriting quality win.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $222.88 on 13 Oct after rallying 7.5% from $207.31 on 30 Sep; −2.1% YTD and −7.3% from the $240.40 high of 14 Oct 2025. About −2.6% pre-market (~$217) on the release. The Q3 2025 and Q2 2026 prints fell 5.8% and 9.4% on the day. | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Q3 net premiums written $22.30B, +4% (+2% in September, with personal lines +1%). Net premiums earned +5%. Total revenue ~$23.2B (derived), above the ~$22.5B consensus. Policies in force 40.5M, +6% (direct auto +8%, agency auto +7%, property flat). | Bearish |
| Profitability | Q3 combined ratio 88.7 against 89.5 a year ago and 87.5 year-to-date, well under the 96 target. Net income $2.54B (−3%) after $170M of pretax realised losses (+$295M a year ago). Trailing ROE 34.4%. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 11.2× trailing EPS against a 9.7× peer median, 13.6× forward against 10.7×, and 3.75× book against 1.87×. The premium matches a 34% ROE but leaves the stock sensitive to growth. | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | September accident-year loss ratio 71.2 against a 69.2 calendar-year ratio: $143M of favourable prior-year development flattered the month. Expense ratio 20.8. Catastrophe loss ratio 1.4. Investment book yield 4.3%. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Investments $99.2B (duration 3.6, AA-), debt $8.39B, debt-to-capital 19.6%. Book value per share $59.51. Net unrealised bond losses widened to $3.46B (−$1.66B in September). 969,262 shares bought back in September at $207.92. | Bullish |
| Regime state | Q2 Volatile Chop: Persistency −0.241 (10th percentile), Volatility +0.206 (70th), held 63 sessions since 16 Jul. Not on a boundary. As of 13 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 97.7% idiosyncratic. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is −0.25 (beta −0.54); with Allstate 0.72, Chubb 0.62, Hartford 0.59. PGR trades with the P&C group and against the tape. As of 13 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Growth deceleration dominates the call. Two-percent September premium growth suggests rate cuts and competition are now slowing the top line; if the 3 Nov call signals more rate cuts or higher advertising spend, estimates for 2027 fall. Allstate's print (~late Oct) is the other read-across. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Allstate Q3 (~late Oct), FOMC 27–28 Oct, 10-Q (2 Nov) and the Q3 conference call (3 Nov, 09:30 ET), all expected except the company dates, which are scheduled. October results (18 Nov) are just outside. Travelers, Chubb and Hartford report just before the window. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. Quality intact, growth slowing. Underwriting margins remain excellent and the business throws off capital, but premium growth has slowed to low single digits and the stock still carries a premium multiple. Twelve of 14 market groups sit in regimes where PGR has had a positive Sharpe, and it hedges the index. Composite 6.7 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (24 Oct – 13 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came at about 08:15 ET on 14 Oct; the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data. Operating EPS (~$4.60) is derived by adding back realised losses at a 21% tax rate.
Progressive is still running its business at margins competitors cannot match. What changed is the growth rate: the auto-insurance cycle has turned from repricing to competition, and premium growth is slowing to the low single digits. For the next month, the question is how much of that slowdown the market already priced during this year's 21% drawdown from the high.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (7.0). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.38 + 1.20 + 1.53 + 0.84 + 0.70 + 0.65 + 0.45 = 6.7 (6.75).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conference-call guidance | Competitive | Rate cuts, ad spend, 2027 growth | Yes |
| Allstate read-across | Competitive | 0.72 correlation; share and margin signals | Yes |
| Rates / book value | Macro | Unrealised losses on $92B of bonds | Possible |
| Reserve development | Financial | Smaller releases expose AY loss ratio | Possible |
| Catastrophes | Macro | Property book weather losses | Possible |
| Soft pricing cycle | Competitive | Industry rate cuts | Structural |
| Severity inflation | Macro | Repair, parts, medical costs | Structural |
| Variable dividend | Financial | Year-end capital decision | Structural |
Progressive's capital and margins can absorb almost anything inside a month. The live risk is narrative: whether investors treat 2% premium growth as a deliberate trade for margin or the start of a share-loss cycle, and the 3 November call is where that gets argued.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | 14 Oct 2026 | ~$23,210M | +3.1% | $4.37 (op ~$4.60) | +4.3% | Pre-mkt ~−2.6% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | 15 Jul 2026 | $23,599M | n/a | $5.67 | +0.3% | −9.4% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | 15 Apr 2026 | $22,180M | n/a | $4.80 | +1.6% | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | 28 Jan 2026 | $22,738M | n/a | ~$5.01 | +5.3% | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | 15 Oct 2025 | $22,502M | n/a | $4.45 | −19.7% | −5.8% |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | 16 Jul 2025 | $21,995M | n/a | $5.40 | +10.0% | +1.8% |
Reports come before the open; the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing; the pre-market indication was ~$217 at 08:24 ET. EPS surprises are the vendor's operating-basis comparisons; Q3 2026 operating EPS (~$4.60) is derived by adding back $170M of pretax realised losses at 21% tax. Q3 2026 revenue is year-to-date less H1 (derived); revenue consensus confirmed only for Q3 2026 (~$22.5B). Q4 2025 EPS is FY25 less the first nine months (marked ~). 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +1.8%, −1.5%, +0.4%, −2.2%, +1.8%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | n/c | 63% (5/8) | No EPS guidance; 96 CR target |
| PGR (since 2021) | — | 58% (14/24) | Volatile: misses of 20–50% in 2021–23 |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 100% | ALL, TRV, CB 8/8; HIG 6/8 |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next quarterly report | ~mid Jan 2027 | Outside the window |
| 10-Q filing | 2 Nov 2026 | Inside the window; reserve and segment detail |
| Q3 conference call | 3 Nov 2026, 09:30 ET | Inside the window; CEO Griffith and CFO Quigg Q&A |
| October monthly results | 18 Nov 2026 | Just outside the window |
| Combined ratio target | ≤96 | Long-standing; running at 87.5 YTD |
| Revenue / EPS guidance | None | Progressive reports monthly instead |
| Capital returns | Buybacks + variable dividend | 969,262 shares bought in September; annual dividend set in December |
The only scheduled company events in the window are the 10-Q and the 3 November call. Progressive gives no guidance, so the call carries unusual weight: it is where management explains whether slower growth is a choice to protect margin or a sign of lost share.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Barclays, JPMorgan | Mixed | Barclays Overweight $247; JPMorgan Neutral, raised to $250 |
| Aug–Sep 2026 | KBW | Bullish | Upgraded to Outperform on 20 Aug; $250 reiterated 18 Sep |
| Aug–Sep 2026 | Mizuho, UBS, Cantor | Neutral | Neutral at $230, $234 and $200 |
| Jul–Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley | Bearish | Wells Underweight $201; Morgan Stanley up to Equal-Weight at $210 |
| Jul 2026 (post-Q2) | BofA, Evercore, BMO | Mixed | BofA Buy $308; Evercore $230 and BMO $205 after cuts |
| Consensus | 21 analysts | Neutral | Hold; mean target $232.90, median $232, range $198–314 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus, retrieved 14 Oct 2026. Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | Steven Broz, CTO | Sale | 1,225 | $204.29 | $250.3k | Small; scheduled pattern |
| Sep 2026 | Company | Repurchase | 969,262 | $207.92 | ~$201.5M | Bought near the lows |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Tricia Griffith, CEO | Sale | 37,338 | $219.50 | $8.20M | Negative; second sale in five weeks |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Lori Niederst, Officer | Sale | 7,339 | $209.29 | $1.54M | Mild negative |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Andrew Quigg, CFO | Sale | 3,499 | $220.00 | $769.8k | Mild negative |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Tricia Griffith, CEO | Sale | 37,338 | $212.71 | $7.94M | Negative |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Murphy, Bailo, Bauer (officers) | Sale | 18,818 | $212.70–212.71 | $4.00M | Post-vesting sales |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed and SEC EDGAR; buyback from the September release. Eight further Form 4 filings dated 13 Oct 2026 were not yet reflected in the feed. Officers sold about $23.0M from late July to September, mostly after the 24 Jul restricted-stock vesting; there were no open-market purchases. The company repurchased about $201.5M in September alone.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2026 | Progressive (expected) | Annual variable dividend decision | No |
| 18 Nov 2026 | Progressive | October monthly results | Just after |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Progressive | Q3 conference call, 09:30 ET (CEO and CFO Q&A) | Yes |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Progressive | Form 10-Q filing | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Allstate (expected) | Q3 results; the most-correlated peer (0.72) | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; bond yields drive book value | Yes |
| ~15–23 Oct 2026 | Travelers, Chubb, Hartford (expected) | Q3 results; auto and homeowners pricing read | Just before |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Progressive release | Q3: NPW +4% (Sept +2%), CR 88.7, EPS $4.37; PIF +6% | No, sets the base |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Progressive release | August: NPW +6%, CR 89.3, net income −22% | No, sets the base |
| 15 Jul 2026 | Progressive release | Q2: NPW +5%, CR 87.3; stock −9.4% | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 14 Oct 2026 report date (24 Oct – 13 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Progressive's own dates come from its release; others marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Late Oct: Allstate's Q3, the closest read on personal-auto competition. 27–28 Oct: FOMC, through bond yields and book value. 2 Nov: the 10-Q, with reserve development detail. 3 Nov: the Q3 call, the only management commentary in the window and the main event of the month.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | $222.88 | $129.2B | $91.73B | 1.41× | +3.1% | Hold · $232.90 | Mixed |
| Chubb (CB) | $346.16 | $133.5B | $61.90B | 2.16× | +6.1% | Buy · $366.78 | Positive |
| Travelers (TRV) | $373.28 | $77.9B | $48.98B | 1.59× | +0.3% | Hold · $360.67 | Positive |
| Allstate (ALL) | $236.40 | $59.8B | $70.14B | 0.85× | +11.8% | Buy · $269.27 | Mixed |
| Hartford (HIG) | $131.19 | $35.5B | $29.32B | 1.21× | +8.1% | Buy · $146.86 | Mixed |
| Peer median | — | $68.8B | $55.44B | 1.40× | +7.1% | — | — |
Prices at the 13 Oct 2026 close. PGR revenue is TTM to Q3 2026 (Q3 derived from year-to-date). Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun 2026. For insurers, P/B and ROE are the primary valuation lens (see 9.5). Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | $247 | $246 | 7 Oct 2026 | +10.8% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan | $250 | $241 | 5 Oct 2026 | +12.2% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| KBW | $250 | $250 | 18 Sep 2026 | +12.2% | Outperform | ► Maintained |
| Mizuho | $230 | $236 | 16 Sep 2026 | +3.2% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| UBS | $234 | $225 | 27 Aug 2026 | +5.0% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| Wells Fargo | $201 | $198 | 20 Aug 2026 | −9.8% | Underweight | ▲ Raised |
| KBW | $250 | $226 | 20 Aug 2026 | +12.2% | Outperform (upgrade) | ▲ Raised |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $200 | $220 | 17 Aug 2026 | −10.3% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Morgan Stanley | $210 | $190 | 24 Jul 2026 | −5.8% | Equal-Weight (upgrade) | ▲ Raised |
| BofA Securities | $308 | $313 | 16 Jul 2026 | +38.2% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $222.88 close on 13 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Targets span $200–308; the recent October actions moved up. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $222.88 |
| Consensus target | $232.90 |
| Median target | $232.00 |
| High target | $314.00 |
| Low target | $198.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +4.5% |
| Implied downside to low | −11.2% |
| Analysts contributing | 21 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 14 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. At the ~$217 pre-market level the consensus implies about +7%.
| $198 |
| $233 |
| $232 |
| $314 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | $21,995M | +7.9% | ~+20.2% | $5.40 | n/m (CR 86.2) | n/m | 18.1% | Beat | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | $22,502M | +2.3% | ~+15.5% | $4.45 | n/m (CR 89.5) | n/m | 14.8% | Miss | −5.8% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | $22,738M | +1.0% | n/d | ~$5.01 | n/m | n/m | 16.2% | Beat | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | $22,180M | −2.5% | ~+8.8% | $4.80 | n/m (CR ~86.6) | n/m | 16.1% | Beat | +2.4% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | $23,599M | +6.4% | +7.3% | $5.67 | n/m (CR 87.3) | n/m | 17.8% | In line | −9.4% |
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | ~$23,210M | −1.6% | +3.1% | $4.37 | n/m (CR 88.7) | n/m | 13.9% | Beat (op) | Pending |
Revenue is total revenues; Q3 2026 is year-to-date less H1 (derived). Gross margin and EBITDA are not meaningful for an insurer; the combined ratio (CR) is shown instead where available (Q1 2026 derived from the year-to-date ratio). Margin is pretax margin; Q3 2026 includes $170M of realised investment losses (~0.7 pts). YoY marked "~" uses prior-year totals from earlier releases. Reports come before the open, so the reaction is same-day.
Pretax margin swings with realised investment gains and losses and with catastrophe losses. Q3 2026's 13.9% reflects $170M of realised losses against $295M of gains a year earlier; underwriting (88.7 CR) improved.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | n/m | n/m | n/m | Insurers do not report a classified balance sheet |
| Quick ratio | n/m | n/m | n/m | Liquidity is the investment portfolio: $99.2B, duration 3.6, AA- |
| Cash ratio | ~0.03e | n/d | n/d | Short-term investments $2.13B against $74.7B of reserves and unearned premiums |
Standard liquidity ratios do not apply to a P&C insurer, whose liabilities (loss reserves, unearned premiums) are met from a liquid bond portfolio. The cash ratio shown is short-term investments over loss reserves plus unearned premiums (derived).
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGR (Jun 26) | n/m | −$6.23B | Strong (AA- portfolio) |
| Chubb (Jun 26) | n/m | −$17.05B | Strong |
| Travelers (Jun 26) | n/m | −$4.01B | Strong |
| Allstate (Jun 26) | n/m | −$1.78B | Strong |
| Hartford (Jun 26) | n/m | −$0.39B | Strong |
| Peer median | n/m | −$2.90B | — |
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.27 | Lower is safer · moderate; debt-to-capital 19.6% |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | 45.9× (YTD) | 52.2× | 39.4× | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | n/m | 63× | 54× | >1.25 healthy · passed; operating cash flow over interest |
Debt $8.39B (Sep 26), $6.90B (Dec 25), $6.89B (Dec 24). Coverage is pretax income plus interest over interest expense (9M 2026 $245M; FY25 $278M; FY24 $279M). DSCR uses operating cash flow (FY25 $17.5B, FY24 $15.1B) over interest, as no material debt matured.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin (combined ratio) | 88.7 | n/d | 89.5 | n/d | n/d | ▲ (lower is better) |
| Operating margin (pretax) | 13.9% | 16.0% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 14.2% | → |
| Net margin | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 11.3% | → |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | Not used for insurers |
| Return on assets | 2.0% (q) | 9.3% | 2.2% (q) | 9.9% | 8.7% | → |
| Return on equity | 7.4% (q) | 34.4% | 7.4% (q) | 40.4% | 37.0% | ▼ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 12.7% × 0.74 × 3.85 | — | 12.9% × 0.77 × 4.05 | — | Margin steady, leverage easing |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. TTM ROE (34.4%) is the company's reported trailing return on average common equity; FY figures are derived. TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026. Year-to-date 2026 combined ratio is 87.5.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR (TTM) | n/m | 16.0% | 12.7% | n/m | 34.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Allstate | n/m | 22.8% | 19.0% | n/m | 46.1% | 1 of 5 |
| Travelers | n/m | 23.7% | 17.0% | n/m | 26.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Hartford | n/m | 17.6% | 14.9% | n/m | 22.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Chubb | n/m | 23.5% | 18.1% | n/m | 14.8% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | n/m | 23.2% | 17.6% | n/m | 24.3% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures. Rank is by ROE, the relevant profitability measure for insurers. Allstate's TTM ROE is lifted by a strong recovery from 2024 catastrophe losses.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.74 | 0.77 (FY25) | Revenue over average assets |
| Revenue per employee | ~$1.31M | ~$1.25M (FY25) | On ~70,100 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY, GAAP) | −2% | — | ~+14% on operating EPS (ex realised gains/losses) |
| NPW growth (YTD) | +5% | — | Q3 +4%; September +2% |
| Dividend yield | 0.18% | — | $0.10 quarterly; annual variable dividend set in December |
| Book value per share | $59.51 | ~$60.4 (Sep 25) | Down on unrealised bond losses (−$3.46B net) |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | 0.72 | $1.31M | ~70,100 | −2% (op ~+14%) | 0.18% | 4 of 5 |
| Allstate | 0.56 | $1.32M | 53,000 | +55% | 1.83% | 1 of 5 |
| Hartford | 0.33 | $1.53M | 19,200 | +31% | 1.83% | 2 of 5 |
| Chubb | 0.22 | $1.38M | 45,000 | −4% | 1.18% | 3 of 5 |
| Travelers | 0.34 | $1.44M | 34,000 | +46% | 1.34% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.34 | $1.41M | 39,500 | +38% | 1.59% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure, swollen by 2025 catastrophe comparisons. PGR's low headline yield excludes the annual variable dividend.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums written | $22,301M | $21,384M | +4% | September +2% ($7,255M) |
| Net premiums earned | $21,869M | $20,849M | +5% | Earned growth lags written |
| Combined ratio | 88.7 | 89.5 | −0.8 pts | YTD 87.5; September 90.0 |
| Direct auto policies | 16,848k | 15,619k | +8% | Fastest-growing channel |
| Agency auto policies | 11,347k | 10,630k | +7% | — |
| Special lines / property | 7,390k / 3,652k | 6,980k / 3,651k | +6% / 0% | Property growth halted |
| Commercial lines policies | 1,252k | 1,198k | +5% | Commercial NPW +6% in September |
| Realised gains (losses), pretax | −$170M | +$295M | n/m | Holding-period losses on securities |
| Accident-year vs calendar-year loss ratio (Sept) | 71.2 / 69.2 | — | — | $143M favourable prior-year development |
From the September 2026 complete release. Monthly NPW growth has slowed from +6% in August to +2% in September.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 11.2× | TTM EPS $19.84; peer median 9.7× |
| P/E forward (vendor) | 13.6× | Peer forward median 10.7×; implies lower 2027 EPS |
| Price / book | 3.75× | BVPS $59.51; peer median 1.87× |
| Price / sales TTM | 1.41× | Peer median 1.40× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | n/m | Not used for insurers |
| P/B ÷ ROE | 10.9 | 3.75× over 34.4%; peers ~7.7 (1.87× / 24.3%) |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | ~13.6% (FY25 OCF) / 0.18% | Insurer cash flow includes float growth |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | $222.88 | $129.2B | $91.73B | 1.41× | +1% |
| Chubb | $346.16 | $133.5B | $61.90B | 2.16× | +54% |
| Travelers | $373.28 | $77.9B | $48.98B | 1.59× | +14% |
| Hartford | $131.19 | $35.5B | $29.32B | 1.21× | −14% |
| Allstate | $236.40 | $59.8B | $70.14B | 0.85× | −39% |
| Peer median | — | $68.8B | $55.44B | 1.40× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | $19.84 | 11.2× | +3.1% | n/m | Premium P/B for top-tier ROE; growth slowing |
| Chubb | $28.23 | 12.3× | +6.1% | 2.52 | Diversified global franchise |
| Travelers | $37.23 | 10.0× | +0.3% | n/d | Commercial-led; above its mean target |
| Hartford | $14.13 | 9.3× | +8.1% | n/d | Cheapest on forward P/E |
| Allstate | $49.98 | 4.7× | +11.8% | 1.69 | Trough-to-peak earnings; 8.4× forward |
| Peer median | — | 9.7× | +7.1% | 2.11 | — |
On earnings and sales Progressive trades only slightly above peers; on book value it trades at twice their multiple, which its 34% ROE justifies. The vendor's higher forward P/E (13.6×) says analysts expect earnings to dip next year as rate cuts flow through. Valuation is not the trigger for the month; growth commentary is.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 20 Aug 2025 – 13 Oct 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 14 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.2412 | −0.0308 | 0.1090 | −0.2696 | 0.1353 | 9.7 | Mean-reverting. Negative since March; deepened after the July print |
| Volatility | 0.2059 | 0.0017 | 0.2890 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 70.2 | Elevated. Has stayed positive since the July drop |
Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 63 consecutive sessions (since 16 Jul). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the quadrant call is not provisional. As of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 23.5% | Oct–Dec 2025 slide; Jan–Feb 2026; early July |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 26.6% | Since 16 Jul; the current state |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 18.7% | Apr–Jun 2026 base |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 31.1% | Aug–Oct 2025 and early 2026 drift lower |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet drift ↔ Volatile trend | 4 | 2025 – early 2026 trend phases |
| Quiet range ↔ Volatile chop | 3 | Spring 2026 and the June–July turn |
| Quiet drift → Quiet range | 1 | 23 Mar: Persistency turns negative |
| Volatile chop ↔ Volatile trend | 2 | Around the 15 Jul print |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Range had a median of +1.4% (61% positive); from Volatile Chop +0.6% (55%, 56 observations); from Volatile Trend +0.6% (60%); and from Quiet Drift −4.5% (10%, 90 observations). Unconditionally the median was −0.5% (43% positive), in a stock that fell 7% over the year. As of 13 Oct 2026.
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Deeply negative Persistency means moves have tended to reverse: the 7.5% rally into the print partly reversed pre-market, and the pre-market drop may in turn be partly retraced. These statistics describe 20 Aug 2025 – 13 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.052 | 0.3 | 0.230 | −0.311 | 0.421 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.006 | 0.0 | −0.030 | −0.306 | 0.494 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.012 | 0.0 | −0.315 | −0.347 | 0.382 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.034 | 0.1 | 0.102 | −0.250 | 0.337 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | 0.034 | 0.1 | −0.051 | −0.362 | 0.331 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.144 | 2.1 | 0.172 | −0.556 | 0.501 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.028 | 0.1 | −0.380 | −0.437 | 0.503 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.003 | 0.0 | 0.008 | −0.417 | 0.286 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of PGR against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 15 Oct 2021 – 13 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. No driver explains more than 2.1% of variance; Sector Driver 1's rolling reading has swung from −0.56 to +0.50 and is +0.17 now. Drivers as of 13 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00005 | 0.051 | 11.2% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.06468 | −0.144 | 88.8% |
PGR is an idiosyncratic name that trades with the personal-lines insurers and against the broad market. For the next 10–30 days the index will not decide the month; Progressive's own call and Allstate's print will.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against PGR daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Both have swung within roughly ±0.5 without a stable sign; both are positive on the latest readings (+0.24 and +0.16). As of 13 Oct 2026.
PGR daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 12 Oct 2026, 1,168 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 417 | 35.5% | +52.7% | +29.2% | 26.0% | 1.12 | 56.1% | +5.62% | −10.79% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 300 | 25.6% | +24.4% | +20.2% | 26.1% | 0.77 | 56.0% | +7.82% | −9.90% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 286 | 24.4% | +5.5% | +4.8% | 29.1% | 0.16 | 45.5% | +8.50% | −14.06% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.5% | +0.7% | +1.1% | 21.4% | 0.05 | 51.8% | +4.73% | −4.46% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 177 | 15.1% | +32.5% | +49.3% | 22.6% | 2.18 | 55.4% | +4.73% | −6.95% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 353 | 30.1% | +29.0% | +19.9% | 28.5% | 0.70 | 48.7% | +8.50% | −14.06% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 410 | 35.0% | +23.9% | +14.1% | 25.9% | 0.54 | 54.1% | +5.53% | −10.79% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 233 | 19.9% | −4.6% | −5.0% | 25.6% | −0.20 | 54.9% | +7.82% | −9.90% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 245 | 20.9% | +54.4% | +56.3% | 22.6% | 2.49 | 57.1% | +5.62% | −5.74% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.2% | +14.0% | +25.9% | 24.3% | 1.06 | 53.8% | +7.82% | −6.95% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 444 | 37.9% | +41.7% | +21.9% | 26.8% | 0.82 | 55.4% | +5.53% | −10.79% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 341 | 29.1% | −19.0% | −14.4% | 28.5% | −0.51 | 46.0% | +8.50% | −14.06% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded PGR return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for PGR | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | +24.4% | 0.77 | 1.07 | 27 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −4.6% | −0.20 | 2.38 | 27 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +54.4% | 2.49 | 3.00 | 21 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +30.7% | 0.59 | 1.70 | 100 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +45.3% | 3.68 | 4.15 | 15 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | +16.3% | 0.50 | 0.91 | 76 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +25.7% | 1.04 | 1.01 | 21 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +2.5% | 0.09 | 0.84 | 20 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +3.8% | 0.08 | 2.55 | 48 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +23.8% | 2.23 | 3.16 | 30 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +39.0% | 1.18 | 1.47 | 111 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −13.2% | −0.78 | 2.16 | 15 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +33.6% | 0.73 | 2.65 | 17 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +23.4% | 0.70 | 2.76 | 10 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning PGR is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 12 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 12 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 26 | Progressive reports September 2026 results: Q3 NPW +4%, combined ratio 88.7, EPS $4.37 (company release) | Mixed |
| 14 Oct 26 | September NPW +2%; personal lines +1% (complete release) | Negative |
| 14 Oct 26 | $231M September realised losses; $1.3B unrealised bond loss; comprehensive loss −$679M (release) | Negative |
| 14 Oct 26 | Policies in force 40.5M (+6%); direct auto +8% (release) | Positive |
| 9 Oct 26 | Progressive expected to post quarterly earnings Wednesday (MarketBeat) | Neutral |
| 5–7 Oct 26 | Barclays ($247) and JPMorgan ($250) raise targets ahead of the print | Positive |
| 30 Sep – 13 Oct 26 | Shares rally 7.5% from $207.31 to $222.88 into the print | Positive |
| 18 Sep 26 | August: net income −22%, NPW +6%, combined ratio 89.3 (+6.2 pts) | Negative |
| 1 Sep 26 | CEO Tricia Griffith sells 37,338 shares at $219.50 | Negative |
| 20 Aug 26 | KBW upgrades to Outperform ($250) | Positive |
| 16 Jul 26 | Q2 net income +4%; combined ratio 87.3 (Insurance Journal); stock −9.4% on 15 Jul | Negative |
| 29 May 26 | Stock hits a 52-week low of $190.40 | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company releases, Insurance Journal, MarketBeat, TradingView, Yahoo Finance rating and insider feeds; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "peak margins" (2025) to "slowing growth as auto pricing softens" (2026). Underwriting quality has not been the debate.
| Field | The Progressive Corporation | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | The Progressive Corporation | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: PGR · listed 1971; founded 1937 | All peers NYSE-listed |
| Domicile | United States (Mayfield Village, Ohio) | Chubb domiciled in Switzerland |
| Sector / industry | Financials · Property & casualty insurance (personal and commercial auto, property) | Allstate the closest personal-lines peer |
| Market cap | $129.2B (579.5M shares × $222.88) | Second to Chubb ($133.5B) |
| Employees | ~70,100 | Largest in the set; Allstate 53,000 |
| TTM revenue | $91.73B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Largest in the set; 1.3× Allstate |
| Revenue model | Premiums from personal auto (direct and agency), special lines, property and commercial auto, plus investment income on a $99B portfolio | Peers more commercial and specialty |
| Key differentiators | Segmented pricing and telematics (Snapshot), direct-to-consumer scale, combined-ratio discipline (≤96 target, 87.5 YTD) | Allstate rebuilt margins after 2023–24 losses |
| CIK | 0000080661 | — |
| Website | progressive.com | — |
Progressive's Q3 showed underwriting as strong as ever — an 88.7 combined ratio, operating EPS about $4.60 against $4.41 expected, a 34% ROE — and policy counts still growing 6%. It also showed premium growth slowing to 4% for the quarter and 2% in September, realised and unrealised investment losses, and favourable reserve development flattering reported margins. The shares gave back part of a 7.5% pre-print rally. PGR hedges the market and most market regimes favour it, but the month turns on the 3 November call. The view turns bullish if management frames slower growth as margin-protective and Allstate shows similar trends, with PGR back above $225. It turns bearish if the call signals further rate cuts or heavier advertising and PGR breaks $205.