Close 1 Oct 2026
$35.15
After the 1 October close Nike beat on EPS ($0.48 against $0.43) and missed on revenue ($11.21B, −4%). It then guided FY27 adjusted EPS to $1.15–1.35, about 22% below the $1.61 consensus, with revenue down high single digits and Greater China −26% in constant currency. Shares fell 6.2% after hours to $32.96, a 13-year low. Over the next 10–30 days consensus has to reset lower into a stock at ~26× guided earnings, and the regime backdrop is the weakest of any name in this series.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $35.15 on 1 Oct, a 52-week low and −52.9% from the $74.57 high of 2 Oct 2025, then fell to $32.96 after hours (−6.2%). 105M shares traded, 3.1× the 30-day average. YTD −44.8%; about 80% below the Nov 2021 peak. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Q1 FY27 revenue $11.21B, −4% reported / −5% currency-neutral, $0.11B below the $11.32B consensus. FY27 guide: high-single-digit decline. Q2 faces a ~400 bps headwind from tough comparisons. | Bearish |
| Profitability | Gross margin 42.8% (+60 bps on logistics). SG&A −3%, with overhead −6% and demand creation +5%. Net income ~$0.71B (−2%). FY27 adjusted EPS $1.15–1.35 against $2.08 TTM. | Mixed |
| Valuation vs peers | 16.9× TTM, but ~28× the FY27 guide midpoint ($1.25), against a peer forward median of 12.1×. P/S 1.14× against 1.52×. EV/EBITDA ~12.0× against 9.9×. Cheap only on trailing earnings that are about to fall. | Bearish |
| Platform KPIs | Nike Direct −8% (digital −13%). Converse −28%. Greater China −22% (−26% cn), with management saying the reset will take "multiple seasons". North America +2% is the only growing region; wholesale −1%. | Bearish |
| Balance sheet | Cash and short-term investments $8.4B against ~$11.0B of debt including leases, so net debt is ~$2.6B. Inventories $7.8B (−3%). FY26 FCF of $2.18B did not cover $2.41B of dividends. The $1.64 annual dividend exceeds the FY27 EPS guide. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q3 Quiet Range, held 63 sessions. Persistency −0.177 (Mildly Mean-Reverting, 92nd percentile of its own history); Volatility −0.363 (13th percentile). As of 1 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag), so the after-hours move is not yet reflected. | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 86.6% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 is −0.365 over five years (60-day −0.240); Market Driver 1 is 0.027. One-year beta to the S&P 500 is 0.72 (corr 0.25). Company news decides the month. As of 1 Oct 2026. | Neutral |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Consensus resets about 22% lower and targets follow, while the dividend-cover debate intensifies. China data (Golden Week, Singles Day presales) and peer prints from adidas and Deckers could confirm the share loss. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Analyst estimate and target cuts (early Oct). US retail sales (mid-Oct). Deckers FQ2 and adidas Q3 (late Oct, expected). Singles Day presales (late Oct). FOMC 27–28 Oct. Nike's own next report (~Dec) is outside the window. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Bearish, with oversold-bounce risk. Estimates must fall 20%+ into a stock already at a 13-year low. In NKE's current regime, the 21-day forward median has been −6.7% (positive 11% of the time). A short-covering bounce off a "kitchen-sink" guide is the main risk to the view. Composite 4.3 / 10. Bearish | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (12 Oct – 1 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 1 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date. The after-hours move on the print is not yet in the regime series.
Nike's quarter was in line with its own plan, but the plan has moved further away. A guide 22% below consensus means estimates, targets and the dividend debate will reset over the next month. Gross margin and cost discipline are improving, but those gains only arrive in FY29–30.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (5.25). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 0.63 + 0.90 + 0.90 + 0.66 + 0.53 + 0.25 + 0.43 = 4.3.
For a bearish view, the risk is a move higher. Both sides are ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus EPS reset (−22%) | Financial | Estimate and target cuts follow the guide | Yes |
| China sell-through | Macro | Golden Week / Singles Day data | Yes |
| Peer share gains | Competitive | Deckers and adidas prints | Possible |
| Dividend coverage | Financial | Payout >100% of guided EPS | Possible |
| Short squeeze (upside risk) | Technical | 9% short interest at a 13-year low | Possible |
| Brand / innovation | Competitive | Multi-season product rebuild | Structural |
| Pace execution | Governance | Savings back-loaded to FY29–30 | Structural |
| Tariffs / sourcing | Macro | Asian sourcing cost exposure | Structural |
The risks that can bite in the next month mostly point down, because estimates must come down. The one live upside risk is positioning: a 9% short interest at a 13-year low can produce a sharp bounce on any good news.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 FY27 (Aug-26) | 1 Oct 2026 | $11,210M | −1.0% | $0.48 | +9.9% | ≈ −6.2% AH |
| FQ4 FY26 (May-26) | 30 Jun 2026 | $10,972M | n/a | $0.72 | +466% | +4.9% |
| FQ3 FY26 (Feb-26) | 31 Mar 2026 | $11,279M | n/a | $0.35 | +24.3% | −15.5% |
| FQ2 FY26 (Nov-25) | 18 Dec 2025 | $12,427M | n/a | $0.53 | +41.3% | −10.5% |
| FQ1 FY26 (Aug-25) | 30 Sep 2025 | $11,720M | n/a | $0.49 | +81.3% | +6.4% |
| FQ4 FY25 (May-25) | 26 Jun 2025 | $11,097M | n/a | $0.14 | +14.2% | +15.2% |
All reports come after the close; the reaction is the next session's close-to-close move. FQ1 FY27's reaction is the after-hours indication only. EPS surprise is against the vendor consensus; large percentage beats reflect very low bars. Revenue consensus was confirmed only for FQ1 FY27. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +8.7%, −12.5%, +11.5%, −0.5%, −3.1%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | 0% (0/1 known) | 100% (6/6) | FY27 guide 22% below consensus |
| NKE (since Jun 2024) | — | 100% (10/10) | Repeated guide resets |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | ~mid/late Dec 2026 | Outside the 10–30 day window |
| FY27 revenue | HSD decline | Implies −8% to −11% in Q2–Q4 |
| FY27 adjusted EPS | $1.15–1.35 | Consensus $1.61–1.69 |
| Pace charges in EPS | ~$0.15 | Excluded from the adjusted range |
| Q2 comparison headwind | ~400 bps | Cyber Week timing, NA sell-in |
| Tax rate | mid-20s % | Q1 was 22.7% |
| Pace savings | ~$2.5B | Mostly FY29–30; ~$1.0B charges |
| Dividend | $0.41 / qtr | "Maintain and eventually grow" |
Peer beat rates were not compiled (n/c) for this report.
The next Nike print is not in the window. Over the month, the stock will trade on how far consensus moves toward the $1.25 guide, a cut of about 22–26% in FY27 EPS.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (post-print) | Sell-side (unnamed) | Bearish | One downgrade on "worsening fundamentals heading into fiscal 2027"; Holds maintained elsewhere |
| Sep 2026 (pre-print) | BofA (Hutchinson) | Bearish | Underperform; target cut to $30 from $47 |
| Sep 2026 (pre-print) | Goldman, Deutsche, HSBC, Piper, RBC, Evercore, Stifel, UBS | Neutral | Targets cut 10–26% to $34–42; ratings at Hold / Neutral |
| Sep 2026 (pre-print) | Oppenheimer, Barclays, BTIG, Jefferies | Bullish | Buy / Outperform kept; targets $48–55 (Oppenheimer and Barclays trimmed) |
| Sep 2026 | Benchmark | Neutral | Upgrade to Hold |
| Consensus | 36–38 analysts | Neutral | 1 Strong Buy / 9 Buy / 21 Hold / 7 Sell; mean $45.6–46.6, pre-guide |
Sources: MarketBeat rating log, Cryptonomist recap, Yahoo Finance consensus, retrieved 2 Oct 2026. The consensus mean has not yet absorbed the FY27 guide.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | Alexandre Arnault, Director | Grant | 5,171 | — | — | Board equity; no signal |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Venkatesh Alagirisamy, COO | Sale | 3,671 | $37.59 | $0.14M | Small; likely vesting-related |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Robert Leinwand, Officer | Sale | 3,646 | $37.59 | $0.14M | Small; same-day pattern suggests withholding |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Philip McCartney, Officer | Sale | 2,559 | $37.59 | $0.10M | Small |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Directors incl. Tim Cook, Travis Knight, Peter Henry | Grant | 5,047 each | — | — | Annual board grants; no signal |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Johanna Nielsen, Officer | Grant | 11,893 | — | — | Award; no signal |
| FY2026 | Company (buyback) | Repurchase | n/d | n/d | $0.15B | Down from $2.99B in FY25; capital going to dividends |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed; buybacks from the vendor cash-flow statement. No open-market insider purchases were filed in recent months, even at 13-year lows. Insiders (including the Knight family's Class A holdings) own about 2%.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~Dec 2026 | Nike (expected) | Q2 FY27 results, with the ~400 bps comparison headwind; next dividend declaration (~mid-Nov) | No |
| ~mid-Nov 2026 | On Holding (expected) | Q3 results; running share-gain read | No, just after |
| ~late Oct 2026 | adidas (expected) | Q3 results; adidas grew +13% in its last reported quarter | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; consumer-discretionary rate sensitivity | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | Deckers (expected) | FQ2 FY27 results; Hoka and Ugg demand, a direct running comparison | Yes |
| ~late Oct 2026 | China e-commerce (pattern) | Singles Day (11.11) presales begin; Nike China sell-through read | Yes |
| ~mid-Oct 2026 | US Census (scheduled) | September retail sales; consumer read for apparel and footwear | Yes |
| Early Oct 2026 | Sell-side | Estimate and target cuts toward the $1.15–1.35 FY27 guide | Early window |
| 1–7 Oct 2026 | China Golden Week | Holiday-week sell-through data | Just before |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Nike release | Q1 FY27: revenue $11.21B (−4%), EPS $0.48; FY27 EPS guide $1.15–1.35; Pace plan ($2.5B savings); job cuts; −6.2% after hours | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 2 Oct 2026 report date (12 Oct – 1 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected", "pattern" or "scheduled" are unconfirmed.
Early–mid Oct: sell-side estimate and target cuts, which move consensus toward a 22% lower FY27 EPS. Mid-Oct: US retail sales. Late Oct: Deckers and adidas results, which test share loss in running and lifestyle. Late Oct: Singles Day presales, the China read. 27–28 Oct: FOMC.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | $35.15 | $52.1B | $45.89B | 1.14× | −4.4% | Hold · $45.63 | Negative |
| adidas (ADDYY) | $80.61 | $28.2B | €26.04B | 1.08× | +13.3% | Buy | Positive |
| Lululemon (LULU) | $95.86 | $10.6B | $11.09B | 0.96× | −4.3% | Hold · $104.91 | Negative |
| Deckers (DECK) | $79.57 | $10.8B | $5.53B | 1.96× | +5.7% | n/r · $120.41 | Mixed |
| On Holding (ONON) | $30.20 | $10.1B | CHF 3.22B | 3.13× | +13.5% | Buy · $43.56 | Mixed |
| Peer median | — | $10.7B | ~$8.3Be | 1.52× | +9.5% | — | — |
Prices at the 1 Oct 2026 close (adidas ADR). NKE figures are TTM to 31 Aug 2026 from the Q1 FY27 release and vendor quarters. Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun–Jul 2026. Revenue is in reporting currency (adidas EUR, On CHF), so the revenue median is approximate. Every peer is down 18–54% YTD; this is a sector-wide de-rating.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC (Dadhania) | $40 | $45 | 29 Sep 2026 | +13.8% | Sector Perform | ▼ Lowered |
| Piper Sandler (Andreeva) | $38 | $45 | 28 Sep 2026 | +8.1% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Evercore ISI | $34 | $46 | 28 Sep 2026 | −3.3% | n/d | ▼ Lowered |
| HSBC (Gupta) | $40 | $48 | 28 Sep 2026 | +13.8% | Hold | ▼ Lowered |
| Deutsche Bank (Katai) | $37 | $45 | 28 Sep 2026 | +5.3% | Hold | ▼ Lowered |
| Goldman Sachs (Roach) | $38 | $42 | 25 Sep 2026 | +8.1% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Bank of America (Hutchinson) | $30 | $47 | 25 Sep 2026 | −14.7% | Underperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Oppenheimer (Nagel) | $52 | $60 | 23 Sep 2026 | +47.9% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Barclays (Yih) | $48 | $52 | 23 Sep 2026 | +36.6% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
| BTIG (Drbul) | $55 | $55 | 23 Sep 2026 | +56.5% | Buy | ► Maintained |
Implied return is measured against the $35.15 close on 1 Oct 2026. Source: MarketBeat rating log. Nine of ten actions in the fortnight before the print were cuts, and all predate the FY27 guide. Against the $32.96 after-hours price, BofA's $30 implies −9%.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $35.15 |
| Consensus target | $45.63 |
| Median target | $42.50 |
| High target | $94.00 |
| Low target | $23.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +29.8% |
| Implied downside to low | −34.6% |
| Analysts contributing | 36 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 2 Oct 2026. MarketBeat shows a $46.62 mean, $75 high and $23 low across 38 analysts. The $94 high is stale. The consensus is expected to fall toward the $35–40 cluster as targets reset.
| $23.00 |
| $45.63 |
| $42.50 |
| $94.00 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ4 FY25 (May-25) | $11,097M | ~−1.5% | ~−12.0% | $0.14 | 40.3% | $518M | 4.7% | Beat | +15.2% |
| FQ1 FY26 (Aug-25) | $11,720M | +5.6% | ~+1.1% | $0.49 | 42.2% | $1,125M | 9.6% | Beat | +6.4% |
| FQ2 FY26 (Nov-25) | $12,427M | +6.0% | ~+0.6% | $0.53 | 40.6% | $1,186M | 9.5% | Beat | −10.5% |
| FQ3 FY26 (Feb-26) | $11,279M | −9.2% | ~+0.1% | $0.35 | 40.2% | $769M | 6.8% | Beat | −15.5% |
| FQ4 FY26 (May-26) | $10,972M | −2.7% | −1.1% | $0.72 | 49.2%e | $1,514M | 13.8% | Beat | +4.9% |
| FQ1 FY27 (Aug-26) | $11,210M | +2.2% | −4.4% | $0.48 | 42.8% | ~$1,100Me | ~9.8% | Beat EPS / miss rev | ≈ −6.2% AH |
| FY27 guide (full year) | ~$42.5Be | — | HSD decline | $1.15–1.35 adj. | — | — | — | Below cons. | — |
FY ends 31 May. Reports come after the close; the reaction is the next session. Gross margin and EBITDA are vendor figures. FQ4 FY26's 49.2% gross margin is the vendor figure and likely includes one-off items. FQ1 FY27 EBITDA is gross profit less SG&A plus ~$0.2B of D&A (derived). Growth rates marked "~" use prior-year quarters from earlier releases. FY27 revenue (~$42.5B) assumes a ~8% decline from FY26's $46.40B.
Revenue has been flat to down for six quarters at $11–12.4B. Gross margin recovered from 40.2% to 42.8%, excluding the FQ4 FY26 vendor spike. Margin repair is real, but too small to offset the falling top line.
| Metric | 31 May 2026 | 31 May 2025 | 31 May 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.96 | 2.21 | 2.40 | 1.5–3.0 healthy · inside, declining |
| Quick ratio | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.51 | ≥1.0 healthy · passed |
| Cash ratio | 0.72 | 0.87 | 1.09 | Cash and short-term investments $9.0B (May 26); $8.4B at 31 Aug 2026 |
The 31 Aug 2026 balance sheet was summarised only partially in the release (cash $8.4B, inventories $7.8B), so fiscal year-end dates are used.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKE (Aug 26 / May 26) | 1.96 | −$2.6B | Adequate |
| adidas (Jun 26) | 1.39 | −€4.4B | Tightest |
| Lululemon (Jul 26) | 2.19 | −$0.8B | Adequate |
| Deckers (Jun 26) | 2.75 | +$1.1B | Strong |
| On Holding (Jun 26) | 2.83 | +CHF 0.7B | Strongest |
| Peer median | 2.47 | ~0 | — |
| Metric | 31 May 2026 | 31 May 2025 | 31 May 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.62 | Lower is safer · moderate |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.23 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | ~12.7×e | ~12×e | ~21×e | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | ~2.0×e | ~14.8×e | ~5.5×e | >1.25 healthy · passed; FY26 has a $2.0B current maturity |
Debt excludes leases: $7.94B (May 26), $7.97B (May 25), $8.91B (May 24). Coverage ratios assume ~$0.3B of annual gross interest expense (marked e). DSCR = EBITDA ÷ (interest + current debt). The $2.0B FY27 maturity is covered by $8.4B of cash.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | TTM | Q1 FY26 | FY2026 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 42.8% | 43.1% | 42.2% | 42.9% | 42.7% | ▲ slight |
| Operating margin | ~8.0%e | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | → (13.6% FY24) |
| Net margin | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | → |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~9.8%e | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | → |
| Return on assets | 1.9% (q) | 8.2% | 1.9% (q) | 8.3% | 8.6% | ▼ |
| Return on equity | 4.8% (q) | 21.8% | 5.4% (q) | 22.1% | 23.3% | ▼ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 6.7% × 1.21 × 2.70 | — | 6.7% × 1.24 × 2.67 | 7.0% × 1.24 × 2.70 | Margin-led decline |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. Q1 FY27 net income is ~$0.71B (release: $0.7B, −2%). Averages use opening and closing balances. ROE has held above 20% only because equity is modest. FY27 guided EPS of ~$1.25 implies ROE falling to ~12%.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE (TTM Aug-26) | 43.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 21.8% | 5 of 5 |
| adidas | 51.6% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 24.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Lululemon | 54.9% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 21.5% | 30.9% | 3 of 5 |
| Deckers | 57.8% | 15.2% | 18.4% | 24.0% | 42.6% | 1 of 5 |
| On Holding | 64.8% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 24.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Peer median | 56.4% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 27.6% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM to Jun–Jul 2026. Rank is by operating margin. Nike's gross margin is structurally lower because of its wholesale mix.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 1.21 | 1.24 (FY26) | Revenue falling against a stable asset base |
| Revenue per employee | $629k | $636k (FY26) | ~73,000 staff (vendor), before Pace job cuts |
| EPS growth (Q1 YoY) | −2.0% | −2.8% (FY26) | $0.48 vs $0.49; FY26 $2.10 vs $2.16 |
| FY27 guided EPS growth | ~−40% | — | $1.25 midpoint vs $2.10 FY26 GAAP (adjusted basis differs) |
| Dividend yield | 4.67% | ~2.3% | $1.64 a year; 5.0% at the after-hours price |
| FCF yield (FY26) | 4.2% | 6.3% (FY25) | FCF $2.18B, below $2.41B of dividends |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | 1.21 | $629k | ~73,000 | −2.0% | 4.67% | 5 of 5 |
| adidas | 1.24 | €404k | 64,394 | −2.4% | 2.04% | 2 of 5 |
| Lululemon | 1.31 | $284k | 39,000 | −5.9% | — | 4 of 5 |
| Deckers | 1.43 | $921k | 6,000 | +1.1% | — | 3 of 5 |
| On Holding | 0.99 | CHF 813k | 3,963 | n/a | — | 1 of 5 |
| Peer median | 1.28 | n/c | 22,500 | −2.4% | — | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Revenue per employee is in reporting currency, so its median is not computed (n/c).
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Q1 FY26 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE Brand revenue | $11.0B | ~$11.4B | −4% | Both reported and currency-neutral |
| Wholesale | $6.8B | ~$6.9B | −1% | Partner reset largely done |
| NIKE Direct | $4.1B | ~$4.5B | −8% (−9% cn) | Digital −13%, owned stores −5% |
| Converse | $263M | ~$365M | −28% | Continued collapse |
| North America | — | — | +2% | Only growing region |
| EMEA / APLA | — | — | −5% / −2% | Q2 Cyber Week comparison headwind |
| Greater China | — | — | −22% (−26% cn) | ~2/3 of the total decline; multi-season reset |
| Demand creation | $1.3B | ~$1.24B | +5% | Brand investment protected |
| Inventories | $7.8B | ~$8.1B | −3% | Healthy against sales |
Year-ago values marked ~ are back-solved from stated growth rates. Regional dollar revenue was not in the summary release.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 16.9× | $2.08 TTM EPS; peer median 14.8× |
| P/E on FY27 guide ($1.25) | 28.1× | 26.4× at the $32.96 after-hours price; peer forward median 12.1× |
| Price / book | 3.50× | Equity $14.9B |
| Price / sales TTM | 1.14× | Peer median 1.52× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA TTM | ~12.0× | EV ~$54.8B; peers ~9.9× |
| PEG | 1.42 | Vendor; not meaningful with falling EPS |
| Dividend / FCF yield | 4.67% / 4.2% | The dividend yield exceeds the FCF yield |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | $35.15 | $52.1B | $45.89B | 1.14× | −25% |
| adidas | $80.61 | $28.2B | €26.04B | 1.08× | −29% |
| Lululemon | $95.86 | $10.6B | $11.09B | 0.96× | −37% |
| Deckers | $79.57 | $10.8B | $5.53B | 1.96× | +29% |
| On Holding | $30.20 | $10.1B | CHF 3.22B | 3.13× | +106% |
| Peer median | — | $10.7B | ~$8.3Be | 1.52× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | $2.08 | 16.9× | −4.4% | 1.42 | Expensive on forward earnings, shrinking |
| adidas | €4.43 | 18.2× | +13.3% | 0.56 | Share gainer |
| Lululemon | $12.11 | 7.9× | −4.3% | 1.05 | De-rated, also shrinking |
| Deckers | $7.03 | 11.3× | +5.7% | 0.96 | Highest margins |
| On Holding | CHF 1.45 | 20.8× | +13.5% | 0.47 | Growth premium |
| Peer median | — | 14.8× | +9.5% | 0.76 | — |
On trailing numbers Nike looks only modestly more expensive than peers. On guided FY27 earnings it is the most expensive name in the group while shrinking fastest. The valuation gives no floor over the next month until estimates have reset.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 6 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2026, 291 observations (146 plotted after thinning). As of 1 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 2 Oct 2026 report date. The post-print move is not yet included.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | −0.1774 | −0.3523 | 0.1208 | −0.4858 | −0.1559 | 91.8 | Mildly Mean-Reverting; near the top of a range that has always been negative |
| Volatility | −0.3625 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4966 | 0.5000 | 13.4 | Subdued Vol. Quiet tape into the print; the −6% gap should lift it |
Currently in Q3 Quiet Range, held 63 consecutive periods. Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not borderline. As of 1 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 0.0% | Never visited |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 49.8% | Whipsaw around prints |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 50.2% | Mean-reverting range, but a declining one |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 0.0% | Never visited; Persistency always negative |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 5 | Calm returns after each print |
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 4 | Prints and guidance shocks |
NKE has only alternated between Quiet Range and Volatile Chop. Over the year, 21-day forward medians were −6.7% from Quiet Range (125 days, 11% positive) and −3.5% from Volatile Chop (145 days, 26% positive), in a year when the stock fell 50%. As of 1 Oct 2026.
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Negative Persistency means moves have tended to retrace. Over the year that has not stopped NKE drifting lower through a series of rangebound steps. These statistics describe 6 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.027 | 0.1 | 0.138 | −0.385 | 0.421 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.001 | 0.0 | 0.080 | −0.335 | 0.329 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.021 | 0.0 | −0.147 | −0.372 | 0.302 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.032 | 0.1 | 0.113 | −0.269 | 0.348 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.002 | 0.0 | −0.329 | −0.382 | 0.452 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.365 | 13.3 | −0.240 | −0.738 | 0.100 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.006 | 0.0 | 0.006 | −0.418 | 0.407 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.040 | 0.2 | −0.146 | −0.461 | 0.390 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of NKE against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 5 Oct 2021 – 1 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's rolling correlation has ranged from −0.74 to +0.10 and is currently −0.240, weaker than its −0.34 average. Drivers as of 1 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00003 | 0.023 | 0.4% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.22759 | −0.365 | 99.6% |
NKE is an idiosyncratic name. One-year correlation is 0.25 with the S&P 500, 0.42 with the consumer-discretionary sector and 0.45 with adidas. Its own estimate cuts and China data decide the month, and an index hedge would offset little of the risk.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against NKE daily returns, Sep 2024 – Sep 2026. Sector Driver 1 is −0.240 now against a −0.34 average. Market Driver 1 is +0.138, near the upper part of its range. There is no inversion. As of 1 Oct 2026.
NKE daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 1 Oct 2026, 1,166 overlapping days. NKE fell about 75% over this window, so most buckets are negative. Read the differences between regimes. No bucket falls below 30 days, so none is marked thin.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 170 | 14.6% | +14.6% | +22.5% | 36.5% | 0.62 | 50.0% | +14.14% | −12.59% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 290 | 24.9% | −11.6% | −10.1% | 31.1% | −0.33 | 45.2% | +11.49% | −4.99% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 413 | 35.4% | −53.3% | −37.1% | 43.0% | −0.86 | 49.2% | +10.76% | −16.85% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 293 | 25.1% | −48.9% | −43.8% | 32.9% | −1.33 | 44.0% | +4.78% | −22.29% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Quiet Range | 354 | 30.4% | −12.7% | −9.2% | 30.2% | −0.31 | 44.4% | +11.49% | −4.99% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 174 | 14.9% | −9.7% | −13.8% | 42.5% | −0.32 | 50.0% | +6.21% | −22.29% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 409 | 35.1% | −53.9% | −37.9% | 44.5% | −0.85 | 49.1% | +14.14% | −16.85% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 229 | 19.6% | −33.4% | −36.1% | 25.1% | −1.44 | 45.0% | +4.12% | −7.15% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 140 | 12.0% | +3.6% | +6.5% | 29.1% | 0.22 | 50.7% | +4.45% | −12.59% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 342 | 29.3% | −25.1% | −19.2% | 34.3% | −0.56 | 46.5% | +14.14% | −15.59% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 241 | 20.7% | −25.8% | −26.8% | 35.7% | −0.75 | 45.2% | +11.49% | −22.29% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 443 | 38.0% | −57.9% | −38.9% | 41.4% | −0.94 | 47.2% | +10.76% | −16.85% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded NKE return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 1 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for NKE | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −48.9% | −1.33 | 1.95 | 20 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −33.4% | −1.44 | 1.13 | 20 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | −25.8% | −0.75 | 1.16 | 14 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | −29.2% | −0.60 | 3.72 | 93 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −11.1% | −0.66 | 0.91 | 8 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −40.6% | −0.87 | 0.75 | 69 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | −0.9% | −0.03 | 1.06 | 14 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +4.3% | 0.15 | 1.24 | 13 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | −60.5% | −1.08 | 1.59 | 273 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −37.2% | −1.73 | 1.67 | 23 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −62.5% | −1.57 | 1.81 | 104 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −35.1% | −1.41 | 0.91 | 8 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −66.7% | −1.20 | 2.85 | 10 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | −33.9% | −0.67 | 1.00 | 3 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning NKE is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 1 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 1 Oct 2026, a window dominated by NKE's long decline, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 1 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 26 | Nike Q1 revenue $11.21B (−4%) misses the $11.32B consensus; EPS $0.48 beats (BigGo, Nike release) | Negative |
| 1 Oct 26 | FY27 adjusted EPS guided to $1.15–1.35, about 22% below consensus; revenue down high single digits (StockTitan) | Negative |
| 1 Oct 26 | Greater China −22% (−26% cn); reset to take "multiple seasons" (Investing.com transcript) | Negative |
| 1 Oct 26 | Nike unveils the "Pace" plan: ~$2.5B of savings, ~$1.0B of charges, regional reorganisation and job cuts | Mixed |
| 1 Oct 26 | Shares fall 6.2% after hours to $32.96, the lowest since 2013 | Negative |
| 1 Oct 26 | CFO: the dividend is "a very significant priority", to "maintain and eventually grow" | Positive |
| 1 Oct 26 | Gross margin +60 bps to 42.8%; operating overhead −6% | Positive |
| 29 Sep 26 | RBC cuts target to $40; Raymond James reiterates Market Perform | Negative |
| 28 Sep 26 | Evercore ($34), HSBC ($40), Deutsche ($37) and Piper ($38) cut targets ahead of the print | Negative |
| 25 Sep 26 | BofA cuts to $30 from $47, Underperform; Goldman to $38 | Negative |
| Sep 26 | Nike shares near a 12-year low on tough competition ahead of Q1 (TipRanks) | Negative |
| 31 Mar 26 | Stock −15.5% after FQ3 FY26, its largest one-day fall of the year | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Through 2026 the narrative has moved from "turnaround under Elliott Hill" to "how long is the trough". Cost and margin progress is overshadowed by a shrinking top line and China.
| Field | NIKE, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | NIKE, Inc. (Class A and Class B shares) | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: NKE · IPO 1980 | adidas XETRA/ADR; LULU and DECK NASDAQ/NYSE; ONON NYSE |
| Domicile | Oregon, USA; HQ Beaverton | adidas Germany; On Switzerland |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Discretionary · Footwear & Apparel | — |
| Market cap | $52.1B (~1.48B shares × $35.15) | ~1.8× adidas; ~5× each of Lululemon, Deckers, On |
| Employees | ~73,000 (vendor), before Pace reductions | adidas 64,394 |
| TTM revenue | $45.89B (to 31 Aug 2026) | Largest in the industry |
| Revenue model | Wholesale ~61% / NIKE Direct ~37% (Q1); brands NIKE, Jordan, Converse; four regions being merged into three | On and Deckers are smaller and faster-growing |
| Key differentiators | Global brand scale; athlete endorsements; ~$5B a year of demand creation; Jordan franchise; Pace cost programme | Losing share in running to On and Hoka |
| CIK | 0000320187 | — |
| Website | about.nike.com | — |
Nike's quarter was in line with its plan, but the FY27 guide is 22% below consensus, revenue is shrinking, China is deteriorating, and the dividend now exceeds guided earnings. Over the next month estimates and targets have to reset lower into a stock at ~26× guided EPS. The regime backdrop is the weakest in this series: in the current own-regime state, NKE's 21-day forward median has been −6.7%. A short-covering bounce is the main risk to the view, on 9% short interest at a 13-year low. It would need adidas, Deckers or Singles Day data to suggest the guide is conservative. Absent that, $28–30 is the path of least resistance.