Close 2 Nov 2026
$36.82
Q3 cleared consensus on sales and earnings, yet the stock gave back about 5% on the day because the beat leaned on a $99 million tariff refund and the legacy EPS outlook was trimmed on softer single-serve coffee. With 99% of daily variance company-specific and its Volatility state at a one-year high, the stock trades on its own story over the next 10–30 days — and that story has just turned from refreshment momentum to coffee-demand doubt.
Closes through 2 Nov 2026. On the 3 Nov report day the stock traded near $34.96 intraday (about −5.1%) after the Q3 release; that session is not yet a completed close and is excluded from the charts and the regime readings.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Up 21.2% in 30 sessions to a 52-week high of $36.95 on 2 Nov, alongside a staples rotation (KO +11.9%, PEP +11.5% over the same span while the S&P 500 ETF fell 2.3%). Gave back about 5% intraday on 3 Nov after the print. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Q3 net sales $7.34B, +70.6% reported, almost all from JDE Peet's (closed 1 Apr). Legacy KDP +8.6% organic: volume/mix +6.5%, price +2.1%. US Refreshment Beverages +10.9%. | Mixed |
| Profitability | Adjusted operating margin 22.7% vs 25.3% a year ago (mix dilution from JDE Peet's at 18.1%). GAAP TTM operating margin 15.6% ranks last of five in the peer set. | Bearish |
| Valuation vs peers | 16.1× 2026E adjusted EPS of $2.29 against KO at 26.9× forward and PEP at 16.0×; EV/EBITDA 12.7×e on pro-forma EBITDA of $6.82B. Price sits on the $36.38 consensus target, so analysts offer no cushion. | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | Dr Pepper Zero retail sales +25% (now above $1B annualised); energy share above 9%; US Coffee sales +2.7% with price −4.2% and single-serve demand softer than planned. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Pro-forma management leverage 4.1× ($27.9B principal net of cash); current ratio 0.52; GAAP interest coverage 2.7× TTM. $4.5B convertible preferred and $4.2B non-controlling interest sit ahead of common holders. | Bearish |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend, held 4 periods, on the boundary (Persistency +0.030 sits within 0.05 of the axis). Volatility +0.455 is the trailing-year maximum, 100th percentile. As of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind — before the post-print drop. | Mixed |
| Driver exposure | 98.9% of daily variance is idiosyncratic; Market Driver 1 correlation 0.072, Sector Driver 1 −0.067 over 499 days. The company, not the index, decides the month. As of 2 Nov 2026. | Neutral |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Post-print de-rating as analysts trim coffee estimates: the beat of $0.04 is roughly matched by the ~$0.06 per share the $99M tariff refund addede, and legacy EPS growth was cut to 3–5% from 4–6%. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | No scheduled company event between 13 Nov and 3 Dec. Thanksgiving / Black Friday (26–27 Nov) brewer sell-through is the only dated read on coffee demand; separation filings are possible but undated. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed, leaning cautious. Fundamentals are intact in beverages, but the stock entered the print fully priced to target and the new information is about coffee. Expect the window to trade the coffee narrative with wide ranges. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (13 Nov – 3 Dec 2026). Row tint matches the badge. e = derived by the desk, see colophon.
Keurig Dr Pepper came into the print at its 52-week high and level with the average analyst target. The quarter was good in cold beverages and adequate overall, but the one piece of new information — single-serve coffee is losing to cheaper formats and the legacy EPS range moves down a point — is exactly the part of the business that will become Global Coffee Co. For the next month that is what the stock trades.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution uses the earnings-quality score; Risk is the mean of balance sheet and structural risk (4.25). Composite = 0.25×7.0 + 0.20×6.5 + 0.18×5.5 + 0.12×5.5 + 0.10×4.25 + 0.10×5.0 + 0.05×9.0 = 6.1.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst estimate revisions | Financial | Legacy EPS guide cut 4–6% → 3–5%; Q4 coffee outlook more cautious; target trims follow in early November | Likely |
| One-off-assisted beat | Financial | $99M tariff refund in operating income ≈ $0.056/share vs $0.04 beat | Likely |
| Single-serve demand softness | Competitive | Value formats and private label outperform pods; US Coffee net price −4.2% | Possible |
| Staples rotation reversal | Macro | Defensive bid that lifted KO, PEP, MNST and KDP 11–21% in 30 days unwinds | Possible |
| Refinancing and leverage | Financial | 4.1× PF leverage; $7.27B short-term debt and current maturities; $1.12–1.14B 2026 interest expense | Unlikely |
| Separation delay | Governance | Early-2027 spin depends on market conditions; no firm date given on the Q3 call | Unlikely |
| Mexico beverage tax / FX | Macro | International adj op income −0.6% cc on the Mexico tax and marketing | Unlikely |
The risks that can bite this month are about expectations, not solvency: a beat that was mostly a refund, a guide that moved down a notch, and a stock that had already run to its target. None of them threatens the business, but together they argue that the first post-print move is not obviously finished.
| Quarter | Report date | Revenue | vs est. | EPS (dil.) | vs est. | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3 Nov 2026 | $7.34B | +0.2% | $0.59 · $0.66 adj | +6.5% (adj vs $0.62) | −5.1% intraday |
| Q2 2026 | 6 Aug 2026 | $7.31B | +0.7% | $0.04 · $0.57 adj | +5.6% (adj vs $0.54) | −1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | 23 Apr 2026 | $3.98B | +3.7% | $0.20 · $0.39 adj | +5.4% (adj vs $0.37) | +7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | 24 Feb 2026 | $4.50B | +3.4% | $0.26 · $0.60 adj | +1.7% (adj vs $0.59) | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | 27 Oct 2025 | $4.31B | ≈ +1% | $0.49 · $0.54 adj | ≈ in line | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | 24 Jul 2025 | $4.16B | ≈ +1% | $0.40 · $0.49 adj | ≈ +2% | +0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | 24 Apr 2025 | $3.64B | ≈ +1% | $0.38 · $0.42 adj | ≈ +5% | −2.1% |
Revenue and EPS from KDP earnings releases and 10-Q/10-K filings. Estimates: FactSet / Zacks / S&P Global as reported in press coverage for Q4 2025 – Q3 2026; 2025 estimates marked ≈ are desk approximations from contemporaneous coverage. Reaction is the report-day close-to-close move (releases are pre-market); Q3 2026 is the intraday move on 3 Nov. Minus signs are − (U+2212).
| Company | Rev beat rate | EPS beat rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 4 / 4 | 4 / 4 | FY26 reaffirmed; legacy EPS cut to 3–5% |
| KO | n/c | 4 / 4 | — |
| PEP | n/c | 3 / 4 | — |
| MNST | n/c | 3 / 4 | — |
| CELH | n/c | 3 / 4 | — |
| Peer median | n/c | 75% | — |
Last four reported quarters. Peer EPS beat history from Yahoo Finance earnings history; peer revenue-surprise history was not available from the same source tier (n/c = not compiled). KDP's four EPS surprises were +1.9%, +4.3%, +6.2% and +6.4% — the surprise grew each quarter.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | late Feb 2027 | Outside the window (Q4 2025 was reported 24 Feb). No earnings event inside 13 Nov – 3 Dec. |
| FY26 net sales | $25.9–26.4B | Reaffirmed; implies Q4 of $7.27–7.77Be |
| Consensus FY26 revenue | $26.31B | S&P Global, 22 Oct — upper half of range |
| FY26 adj. EPS growth | low double digit | Constant currency; consensus $2.29 (+11.8%) implies Q4 ≈ $0.64e |
| Legacy KDP EPS growth | 3–5% | Cut from 4–6% on US Coffee |
| JDE Peet's contribution | $8.3–8.4B · 7–8 pts | Net sales and EPS-growth contribution |
| Separation | early 2027 | Subject to market conditions; no firm date |
The next print is four months away, so inside the window the guidance itself does the work. Reaffirming the total while shifting its composition — less from legacy coffee, more from JDE Peet's — is a neutral headline with a negative mix, and the market priced it that way on the day.
| Period | Source | View | Key point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | Tradingpedia / pre-market coverage | Bearish | Called the reaction a "sell the news" move: slim revenue beat, margin compression, a one-time tariff refund and a reaffirmed rather than raised guide. |
| Nov 2026 | Company (Q3 call) | Mixed | Refreshment strength funding investment; slower coffee profit recovery; separation still early 2027 with no firm date; 2027 outlook deferred to early next year. |
| Oct 2026 | J.P. Morgan | Bullish | Raised target to $39 from $38 ahead of the print, Overweight. |
| Oct 2026 | S&P Global consensus (18 analysts) | Bullish | Consensus "Buy": 8 strong buy, 5 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell; average target $36.21 — under 3% above the then price. |
| Oct 2026 | Simply Wall St narrative tracker | Mixed | Targets clustered at $32–40; recurring concern over deal complexity, the higher debt load and acquisition-driven margin dilution. |
| Aug 2026 | Investing.com / Q2 coverage | Bullish | Q2 beat ($0.57 vs $0.54) and reaffirmed guide sent shares +7.5% pre-market, though the day closed −1.2%. |
Post-print broker notes from 3 Nov were not yet published at the time of writing; the window will contain them. Ratings counts are as of 22 Oct 2026 (S&P Global via StockAnalysis).
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Brian Driscoll, director | RSU grant | 2,752 | $0 | — | Routine director compensation; no signal |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Eric Gorli, President US Refreshment Bev. | Tax withholding on RSU vest | 1,306 | $31.58 | $41K | Mechanical; holds 100,304 shares after |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Mary Beth DeNooyer, Chief HR Officer | Open-market sale | 12,000 | $32.30 | $388K | Second day of selling; 72,171 held after |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Mary Beth DeNooyer, Chief HR Officer | Open-market sale | 12,000 | $32.55 | $391K | Combined ~22% of direct holding sold |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Angela Stephens, SVP & Controller | Open-market sale | 9,500 | $32.70 | $311K | Modest; 55,786 held after |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Aaron Alt, director | Open-market purchase | 7,862 | $31.83 | $250K | Only discretionary buy found; new position |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Amie O'Toole, director | RSU grant | 6,062 | $0 | — | Routine |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings (EDGAR). Officer sales in early September totalled ~$1.09M at $32.30–32.70, below today's price; one director bought $250K in late August. Net flows are small against a $50B market cap and carry little information for the window. Filings after mid-September were not found at the time of writing; insiders typically trade in an open window after the 3 Nov release, so new Form 4s may land inside the horizon.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | KDP 8-K / Benzinga | Q3: sales $7.34B (+70.6%), adj EPS $0.66 (+22.2%), FCF $1.01B; FY26 reaffirmed; legacy EPS growth cut to 3–5%; US Coffee softer as consumers trade down. Shares about −5% intraday. | No — sets it up |
| 3 Nov 2026 | KDP Q3 call | Russ Torres starts as CEO of the coffee unit and future Global Coffee Co.; separation still targeted for early 2027 with no firm date. | No |
| 22 Oct 2026 | J.P. Morgan | Target raised to $39 from $38, Overweight. | No |
| 1 Oct 2026 | KDP 8-K | Russ Torres named future CEO of Global Coffee Co., effective 3 Nov. | No |
| 28 Sep 2026 | KDP 8-K | Chobani transactions closed: $400M cash plus a $400M Chobani note due 26 Dec 2026, and $125M for the Allentown facilities; $400M gain booked in Q3 (excluded from adjusted EPS). | No — note matures after window |
| 16 Sep 2026 | PR Newswire | Regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 declared. | No |
| 1 Sep 2026 | KDP / Food Dive | Agreement to sell Chobani stake for $800M and the Allentown plant for ~$125M; proceeds to debt reduction. | No |
| 6 Aug 2026 | KDP Q2 release | Q2 adj EPS $0.57 vs $0.54; JDE Peet's $2.8B sales and $414M op income; legacy EPS guide 4–6% (since cut). | No |
| 26–30 Nov 2026 | Retail calendar | Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday — peak sell-through for Keurig brewers, the leading indicator for pod demand. | Yes |
| Early 2027 | Company | Separation into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co.; Form 10 and capital-structure details still to come. | Undated — possible |
Newest first, with forward-dated items last. Window = 13 Nov – 3 Dec 2026 (10–30 days from the report date).
26–30 Nov: Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday brewer promotions — channel reads on Keurig brewer demand move the US Coffee narrative directly. Undated: any separation filing, name announcement or capital-structure detail for the two companies would move both halves of the story. No earnings, investor day or dividend date is confirmed inside 13 Nov – 3 Dec; the Chobani note (26 Dec) and Q4 results (late Feb) fall outside.
| Company | Price | Market cap | TTM revenue | P/S TTM | Rev growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source view | News sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | $34.96 | $47.6B | $23.1B | 2.06× | +70.6% (+8.6% legacy) | Buy | Negative |
| Coca-Cola (KO) | $94.90 | $408.3B | $51.1B | 8.00× | +7.4% | Buy | Positive |
| PepsiCo (PEP) | $138.29 | $188.4B | $98.2B | 1.92× | +5.6% | Hold | Mixed |
| Monster (MNST) | $47.65 | $93.3B | $9.2B | 10.12× | +20.2% | Buy | Positive |
| Celsius (CELH) | $30.14 | $7.6B | $3.0B | 2.50× | +10.6% | Buy | Mixed |
| Peer median | — | $140.9B | $30.1B | 5.25× | +9.0% | — | — |
Prices are 3 Nov 2026 intraday so that KDP's post-print level is comparable. Peer market caps, TTM revenue, growth and consensus rating from Yahoo Finance; KDP TTM revenue summed from its four reported quarters (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026), which include JDE Peet's for only two of them. Pro-forma TTM revenue is $29.0B (P/S 1.64×). News sentiment is the desk's read of the past two weeks of coverage.
| Analyst / source | Current target | Previous | Date | Implied return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan · A. Faria Teixeira | $39 | $38 | 22 Oct 2026 | +5.9% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| Barclays · L. Lieberman | $38 | $38 | 16 Oct 2026 | +3.2% | Overweight | ► Maintained |
| UBS · P. Grom | $39 | $39 | 15 Oct 2026 | +5.9% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Piper Sandler · M. Lavery | $38 | $38 | 14 Oct 2026 | +3.2% | Overweight | ► Maintained |
| Citi · F. Falorni | $37 | $37 | 14 Oct 2026 | +0.5% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| BofA Securities · P. Galbo | $38 | $38 | 29 Sep 2026 | +3.2% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Argus Research · T. Conrad | $36 | $36 | 15 Sep 2026 | −2.2% | Buy | ► Maintained |
Implied return measured from the 2 Nov 2026 close of $36.82. Newest first. Individual actions via TipRanks/StockAnalysis; post-print revisions from 3 Nov onward were not yet available.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close (2 Nov) | $36.82 |
| Consensus target | $36.38 |
| Median target | $38.00 |
| High target | $42.00 |
| Low target | $29.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | −1.2% |
| Implied downside to low | −21.2% |
| Analysts contributing | 17 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 3 Nov 2026. Against the 3 Nov intraday $34.96 the consensus implies +4.1% and the median +8.7%.
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs est. | Next-day reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $3,635M | −10.7% | +4.8% | $0.38 | 54.6% | $992Me | 27.3% | Beat | −2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4,163M | +14.5% | +6.1% | $0.40 | 54.2% | $1,178Me | 28.3% | Beat | +0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $4,306M | +3.4% | +10.7% | $0.49 | 54.3% | $1,249Me | 29.0% | In line | +7.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4,499M | +4.5% | +10.5% | $0.26 | 53.8% | $1,352Me | 30.1% | Beat | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $3,976M | −11.6% | +9.4% | $0.20 | 52.8% | $986Me | 24.8% | Beat | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $7,309M | +83.8% | +75.6% | $0.04 | 41.9% | $1,774M | 24.3% | Beat | −1.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $7,344M | +0.5% | +70.6% | $0.59 | 48.0% | $1,914M | 26.1% | Beat | −5.1% intraday |
| Q4 2026 implied guide | $7,270–7,770M | −1% – +6% | +62% – +73% | ≈ $0.64 adj | — | — | — | Consensus-implied | — |
GAAP diluted EPS and GAAP gross margin. Adj. EBITDA for Q2–Q3 2026 is the company's reported pro-forma adjusted EBITDA (JDE Peet's owned for the full quarter). For Q1 2025 – Q1 2026, before the acquisition, the desk derived legacy adj. EBITDA as adjusted operating income plus depreciation and other amortisation (e). The Q4 2026 row is implied from the FY guide less nine-month actuals and from the $2.29 FY consensus. Guide rows are grey.
The step in Q2 2026 is the JDE Peet's consolidation; the Q2 gross-margin trough includes $314M of inventory step-up amortisation.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.52 | 0.64 | 0.49 | 1.5–3.0 healthy — structurally low, supplier-financed model |
| Quick ratio | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.25 | ≥1.0 healthy — below |
| Cash ratio | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.06 | Industry dependent — relies on CP and revolver |
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current ratio | Net cash position | Liquidity status |
|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 0.52 | −$27.9B | Tight; leverage-dependent |
| KO | 1.38 | −$25.9B | Adequate |
| PEP | 0.94 | −$40.7B | Adequate |
| MNST | 3.73 | +$3.3B | Strong |
| CELH | 1.80 | −$0.04B | Adequate |
| Peer median | 1.59 | −$13.0B | — |
KDP figures from its 10-K/10-Q balance sheets; net cash is debt principal ($29.24B) less cash ($1.29B). Peers from Yahoo Finance (total cash less total debt).
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 1.14 | 0.63 | 0.64 | Lower is safer — nearly doubled with the acquisition |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.29 | <0.5 conservative — passes |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / net interest) | 2.7× TTM | 4.7× | 3.5× | >2.5 healthy — at the threshold |
| Debt service coveragee | 0.79 | 1.24 | 1.35 | >1.25 healthy — below; reliant on refinancing |
Debt = short-term borrowings and current portion plus long-term obligations ($28.87B at 30 Sep 2026). Debt service coveragee = adjusted EBITDA ÷ (net interest + debt due within a year), using pro-forma EBITDA of $6.82B for the TTM column. The $4.5B convertible preferred is excluded from debt.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 48.0% | 48.0% | 54.3% | 54.2% | 55.6% | ▼ |
| Operating margin | 18.2% | 15.6% | 23.1% | 21.5% | 16.9% | ▼ |
| Net margin | 12.0% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 9.4% | ▼ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 26.1% | 23.5% PF | 29.0%e | 29.0%e | 29.7%e | ▼ |
| Return on assets | 4.1% ann. | 2.3% | 4.8% ann. | 3.8% | 2.7%e | → |
| Return on equity | 13.9% ann. | 6.5% | 10.5% ann. | 8.4% | 5.8%e | → |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 7.1% × 0.33 × 2.79 | — | 12.5% × 0.31 × 2.19 | — | → |
GAAP margins on net income attributable to KDP. TTM = Q4 2025 – Q3 2026 ($23.13B sales; $1.65B net income); ROA and ROE on average assets and equity. Q3 2026 net margin is flattered by a $400M gain on the Chobani stake sale. Adj. EBITDA TTM is pro-forma ($6.82B on $29.0B pro-forma sales).
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op margin | Net margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 48.0% | 15.6% | 7.1% | 23.5% | 6.5% | 4 of 5 |
| KO | 62.3% | 33.4% | 28.7% | 34.2% | 40.6% | 1 of 5 |
| MNST | 55.5% | 29.2% | 23.1% | 31.8% | 25.7% | 2 of 5 |
| PEP | 54.3% | 16.9% | 11.1% | 19.5% | 52.2% | 3 of 5 |
| CELH | 48.8% | 19.1% | 4.2% | 22.0% | 5.1% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 54.9% | 24.2% | 17.1% | 26.9% | 33.2% | — |
Peer TTM ratios from Yahoo Finance (EBITDA margin unadjusted). KDP is last on gross and operating margin and fourth overall, ahead only of Celsius on net margin and ROE.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.33 | 0.31 | Goodwill and intangibles are 78% of assets |
| Adj. EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | +22.2% | +8.0% | Includes tariff refund benefit |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 3.4% | $0.92 annualised; yield fell as the price rose |
| Free cash flow (9M) | $1.91B | $0.96B | Inventory release and JDE Peet's cash |
| Platform metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Refreshment Bev. sales | $3,033M | $2,735M | +10.9% | Vol/mix +7.2%, price +3.7% |
| US Coffee sales | $1,018M | $991M | +2.7% | Vol/mix +6.9%, price −4.2% |
| US Coffee adj. op margin | 34.7% | 32.0% | +2.7 pts | Includes $99M tariff refund |
| JDE Peet's sales | $2,649M | — | new | Adj. op margin 18.1% |
| International sales | $644M | $580M | +11.0% | +7.6% constant currency |
| Company | Asset turnover | Rev / employee | Employees | EPS growth | Div yield | Growth rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 0.33 | $463K | 50,000 | +22.2% adj | 2.6% | 1 of 5 |
| KO | 0.47 | $775K | 65,900 | +8.3% | 2.2% | 4 of 5 |
| PEP | 0.88 | $321K | 306,000 | +17.4% | 4.2% | 3 of 5 |
| MNST | 0.81 | $1,597K | 5,773 | +18.0% | — | 2 of 5 |
| CELH | 0.59 | $2,035K | 1,497 | −56.9% | — | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.70 | $1,186K | 35,837 | +12.9% | — | — |
KDP's growth rank leans on acquired earnings and the refund; on the legacy +3–5% guide it would rank last. Rev/employee on reported TTM sales (pro forma $580K). Dividend yields at 3 Nov intraday prices.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM (GAAP) | 33.8× | Depressed GAAP EPS of $1.09 (deal costs, step-up) |
| P/E TTM (adjusted) | 16.6× | On $2.22 adjusted TTM EPS |
| P/E 2026E (adjusted) | 16.1× | On $2.29 consensus |
| Price / book | 1.97× | $25.4B equity, mostly goodwill |
| Price / sales TTM | 2.17× | 1.73× on pro-forma $29.0B |
| EV / EBITDAe | 12.7× | EV $86.7B incl. preferred and NCI ÷ $6.82B PF |
| PEGe | 1.36 | 16.1× ÷ 11.8% 2026 EPS growth |
| Price / sales | Price | Market cap | TTM revenue | P/S TTM | vs peer median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | $36.82 | $50.1B | $23.1B | 2.17× | −59% |
| Peer median | — | $140.9B | $30.1B | 5.25× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | $1.09 | 33.8× | +70.6% | 1.36 | Cheap on adjusted, not on GAAP |
| KO | $3.39 | 28.0× | +7.4% | 4.04 | Premium quality |
| PEP | $7.95 | 17.4× | +5.6% | 1.51 | Value, low growth |
| MNST | $1.08 | 44.1× | +20.2% | 2.47 | Growth premium |
| CELH | $0.23 | 131.0× | +10.6% | 0.27 | Distorted by charges |
| Peer median | — | 36.1× | +9.0% | 1.99 | — |
On adjusted earnings KDP is cheaper than every peer but PepsiCo, and that discount is what the October rally was closing. The discount exists for reasons that just got more visible — 4.1× leverage, a structurally lower-margin coffee mix and a two-step separation — so fundamentals cap the downside near $32–33 (the September base) without supplying a reason to rerate inside the month.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y, oldest faint to newest bright. Q1 volatile trend, Q2 volatile chop, Q3 quiet range, Q4 quiet drift. Plot window: the full available series — 10 Sep 2025 to 2 Nov 2026, 290 observations. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. As of 2 Nov 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | +0.030 | +0.056 | 0.086 | −0.097 | +0.171 | 37.7 | Random / Neutral — no exploitable serial structure; below its own one-year average |
| Volatility | +0.455 | −0.032 | 0.278 | −0.497 | +0.455 | 100.0 | Elevated Vol — the widest daily ranges of the year; stops need room |
Mean, std dev, min, max and percentile cover the trailing year — 3 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026, 252 observations. Current is the latest reading (2 Nov 2026). Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 4 consecutive periods. Persistency sits within 0.05 of the axis, so the quadrant call is provisional: Volatile Trend versus Volatile Chop is on the boundary. Correlations, exponents and betas are never coloured — only signed values with valence are.
| Quadrant | Label | % of the last 364 days | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 28.2% | Current; directional bursts |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 18.3% | Whipsaw around events |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 16.3% | Premium-selling conditions |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 37.3% | Most common state |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 6 | Usual exit: volatility subsides, mild trend persists |
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 6 | How Q1 episodes start — often around earnings |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 2 | Mean-reverting side cools |
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 2 | Mean-reverting side heats |
| Quiet drift → Quiet range | 1 | Rare |
| Quiet range → Quiet drift | 1 | Rare |
Occupancy and transitions cover the trailing year — 3 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026, 252 observations (364 days). The trace above spans the full series from 10 Sep 2025; these figures do not. KDP has oscillated almost exclusively between Volatile trend and Quiet drift: six round trips in a year, so a Q1 episode has typically resolved back into Q4 rather than into chop. Separately, of eight entries into Volatile trend since Sep 2025, the next 10 sessions were negative six times (median −4.35%).
The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. These statistics describe the stated window and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling min | Rolling max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.072 | 0.5 | 0.071 | −0.194 | 0.433 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.034 | 0.1 | −0.064 | −0.314 | 0.306 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.036 | 0.1 | −0.048 | −0.252 | 0.283 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.037 | 0.1 | 0.007 | −0.390 | 0.267 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.049 | 0.2 | −0.008 | −0.323 | 0.257 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.067 | 0.5 | −0.067 | −0.455 | 0.218 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.013 | 0.0 | −0.238 | −0.281 | 0.461 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.000 | 0.0 | −0.013 | −0.246 | 0.302 | Variable | Neutral |
Full-period Pearson correlation of KDP daily log returns against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values; rolling window 60 days. Window 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026, 499 observations. Correlations are never coloured. Drivers as of 2 Nov 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.
Systematic bar drawn at a 6% minimum width for legibility; the true systematic share is 1.1%.
| Factor | Raw beta | Standardised beta | Share of explained variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00007 | 0.078 | ≈ 53%e |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.03692 | −0.074 | ≈ 47%e |
Explained-variance shares split the 1.1% R² by squared standardised betas (e). Raw betas are per unit of differenced driver level and are not comparable across drivers.
KDP is neither a beta vehicle nor a sector proxy: two years of daily returns show almost no covariation with the primary Market or Sector Drivers. The October rally looked like a staples rotation, but the drivers say it moved on its own news — so over the next 10–30 days the company decides the month, and an index hedge would not have offset either the rally or the 3 Nov drop.
Market Driver 1 (solid) and Sector Driver 1 (dashed) against KDP's daily returns, 60-day window. The final points on the chart, recomputed on every session to 2 Nov 2026, read 0.085 for Market Driver 1 and −0.064 for Sector Driver 1, against full-period values of 0.072 and −0.067 (the table above uses the script's sampled series, 0.071 and −0.067). The Market correlation peaked at 0.433 and has since collapsed back towards zero — no stable systematic link has held for more than a few months.
Every group is named, never its proxy. Conditional statistics describe the stated window and are not forecasts. Unlike section 10, these tables use the full available history of KDP returns overlapping the market-regime series — 499 trading days, 5 Nov 2024 to 2 Nov 2026 — because a single year split across four quadrants per group leaves nearly every bucket below the thin-sample threshold.
| Market regime | Days | % of period | Cumulative return | Ann. return | Ann. vol | Sharpe | Hit rate | Best day | Worst day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatile trend | 102 | 20.4% | +19.5% | +55.4% | 22.5% | 2.47 | 53.9% | +5.14% | −4.37% |
| Quiet range | 94 | 18.8% | +0.3% | +0.7% | 22.8% | 0.03 | 45.7% | +4.15% | −3.49% |
| Quiet drift Current | 149 | 29.9% | −3.2% | −5.3% | 33.1% | −0.16 | 51.0% | +7.35% | −12.21% |
| Volatile chop | 154 | 30.9% | −3.0% | −4.8% | 23.6% | −0.20 | 50.0% | +7.23% | −5.29% |
| Market regime | Days | % of period | Cumulative return | Ann. return | Ann. vol | Sharpe | Hit rate | Best day | Worst day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatile trend | 105 | 21.0% | +10.9% | +28.1% | 25.7% | 1.09 | 55.2% | +5.14% | −4.77% |
| Quiet range | 124 | 24.8% | +6.1% | +12.8% | 21.3% | 0.60 | 50.8% | +4.15% | −3.49% |
| Volatile chop | 164 | 32.9% | +5.5% | +8.5% | 22.7% | 0.37 | 49.4% | +7.23% | −5.29% |
| Quiet drift Current | 106 | 21.2% | −9.2% | −20.4% | 36.4% | −0.56 | 46.2% | +7.35% | −12.21% |
| Market regime | Days | % of period | Cumulative return | Ann. return | Ann. vol | Sharpe | Hit rate | Best day | Worst day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet drift Current | 36 | 7.2% | +17.3% | +205.5% | 26.3% | 7.81 | 58.3% | +3.41% | −2.81% |
| Volatile trend | 33 | 6.6% | +6.9% | +66.2% | 21.3% | 3.10 | 57.6% | +2.35% | −3.73% |
| Volatile chop | 224 | 44.9% | +2.7% | +3.0% | 23.9% | 0.12 | 49.1% | +7.23% | −5.24% |
| Quiet range | 206 | 41.3% | −12.4% | −15.0% | 29.6% | −0.51 | 49.0% | +7.35% | −12.21% |
KDP daily returns grouped by the regime of each market group on the same day; full history, 499 days, 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026. Cumulative return is derived from the annualised log-return and day count (e). Global-market Quiet drift (36 days) and Volatile trend (33 days) clear the 30-day threshold only narrowly — treat their annualised figures with caution. The −12.21% worst day recurs across groups: it is the single JDE Peet's announcement day of August 2025.
| Group | Current regime | Best regime for KDP | Worst regime | Cum. return in current | Sharpe in current | Sharpe spread | Days in current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | Volatile chop | −3.2% | −0.16 | 2.67 | 43 |
| SP500 | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | Quiet drift | −9.2% | −0.56 | 1.65 | 43 |
| Global market | Quiet drift | Quiet drift | Quiet range | +17.3% | 7.81 | 8.32 | 37 |
| Technology | Quiet range | Quiet range | Quiet drift | +28.8% | 1.40 | 2.85 | 116 |
| Financials | Volatile trend | Volatile trend | Volatile chop | +22.0% | 2.95 | 3.62 | 6 |
| Energy Thin sample | Volatile trend | Quiet drift (10 days) | Quiet range | +15.6% | 0.98 | 9.74 | 31 |
| Utilities | Volatile trend | Quiet drift | Quiet range | −3.4% | −0.36 | 5.74 | 7 |
| Europe | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | Volatile chop | +14.7% | 1.20 | 2.92 | 7 |
| Gold | Volatile chop | Volatile chop | Quiet range | +40.4% | 0.90 | 2.47 | 64 |
| VIX Near | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | Volatile chop | +8.2% | 1.81 | 6.92 | 9 |
| VIX Mid | Quiet drift | Quiet drift | Volatile chop | +37.0% | 2.24 | 2.97 | 127 |
| Bonds near | Volatile trend | Quiet drift | Volatile chop | +0.1% | 0.02 | 4.62 | 3 |
| Bonds mid | Volatile trend | Quiet drift | Volatile chop | +5.6% | 0.64 | 7.57 | 4 |
| Bonds long Thin sample | Volatile trend (15 days) | Volatile trend | Volatile chop | +4.4% | 4.43 | 5.51 | 3 |
All 14 mapped groups, full history (499 days). Rows are greyed as thin sample where the best or current bucket rests on fewer than 30 days: Energy's best regime has 10 days and Bonds long's current bucket has 15. Their Sharpe spreads are excluded from the sensitivity read below. Days in current = consecutive sessions to 2 Nov 2026.
Regime-conditional history describes 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026, not the future. Rows marked thin sample hold fewer than 30 days in a decisive bucket and their annualised figures should not be relied on. Market regime series as of 2 Nov 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 26 | Benzinga: Keurig Dr Pepper falls as coffee business feels the pinch from consumers seeking cheaper brews | Negative |
| 3 Nov 26 | MarketBeat: Shares down ~4.8% midday despite $0.66 vs $0.62 beat; legacy EPS outlook lowered to 3–5% | Negative |
| 3 Nov 26 | Tradingpedia: "Solid beat fails to impress" — reaffirmed rather than raised guide and tariff refund cited | Negative |
| 3 Nov 26 | Investing.com: Q3 slides — strong headline growth masks coffee headwinds | Mixed |
| 3 Nov 26 | KDP release: Q3 sales $7.34B, adj EPS +22.2%, FY26 guidance reaffirmed | Positive |
| 3 Nov 26 | Q3 call: Dr Pepper Zero retail sales +25%, now above $1B annualised | Positive |
| 22 Oct 26 | J.P. Morgan lifts KDP target to $39 ahead of results | Positive |
| 1 Oct 26 | Former Kimberly-Clark CEO Russ Torres named future Global Coffee Co. chief | Positive |
| 28 Sep 26 | Chobani stake redemption and Allentown sale close; $925M toward debt reduction | Positive |
| 8–9 Sep 26 | Form 4: Chief HR Officer sells 24,000 shares at ~$32.3–32.6 | Mixed |
| 6 Aug 26 | Q2 beat; energy share crosses 9%; US Coffee sales −3.2% with recovery expected in H2 | Mixed |
Newest first. The narrative turned on 3 Nov from "refreshment growth plus deleveraging" to "single-serve coffee under pressure" — the latter now dominates coverage heading into the window.
| Field | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | Nasdaq: KDP. Formed July 2018 by the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group (NYSE-listed since 2008) | KO, PEP and MNST listed for decades; CELH Nasdaq |
| Domicile | Delaware; co-headquartered in Burlington, MA and Frisco, TX | All peers US-domiciled |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Staples · Non-alcoholic beverages and coffee | — |
| Market cap | $50.1B (2 Nov 2026 close); ~$47.6B at 3 Nov intraday | Peer median $140.9B; larger only than CELH |
| Employees | 50,000+ including JDE Peet's | KO 65,900; PEP 306,000; MNST 5,773 |
| TTM revenue | $23.1B reported; $29.0B pro forma with JDE Peet's | Peer median $30.1B |
| Revenue model | Branded soft drinks, juices, waters and energy drinks sold through owned and third-party distribution; Keurig brewers and K-Cup pods; global coffee via JDE Peet's (L'OR, Jacobs, Peet's) | KO concentrate model; PEP adds snacks; MNST/CELH asset-light energy |
| Key differentiators | Owned single-serve system in North America; Dr Pepper and challenger CSD brands; distribution partnerships (GHOST, Bloom, C4, La Colombe); planned split into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. in early 2027 | Only peer combining CSDs with a global coffee business |
| CIK | 0001418135 | — |
| Website | keurigdrpepper.com | — |
The evidence favours the bear case at the margin: KDP arrived at the print fully priced, the beat was matched by a one-off refund, and the only new fundamental information — weaker single-serve coffee and a lower legacy EPS range — feeds directly into estimate cuts that land inside the window, while a company-specific stock in its highest Volatility state of the year has historically given back such spikes. The view flips if holiday brewer demand reads strong over 26–30 Nov or the company sets a firm separation date, either of which would refocus the stock on its 16× multiple and double-digit refreshment growth.