Close 30 Oct 2026
$399.30
Third-quarter 2026 worldwide RevPAR rose 6.5% against a 3.5–4.0% guide, with US & Canada up 7.4%. Adjusted EPS of $3.02 beat $2.85, gross fees rose 14% and adjusted EBITDA 12%. Full-year RevPAR guidance went to 4.5–5.0% from 3.0–3.5%, adjusted EPS to $12.07–12.14 from $11.64–11.81, and capital return to at least $4.8B. The stock had already risen 12.5% in 30 days to $399.30, and indicated ~$416 before the open (+4%), above its $404 high. Over the next 10–30 days estimate upgrades and a trending regime support it, while a valuation above most targets limits it.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $399.30 on 30 Oct, up 12.5% from $354.79 on 1 Oct and +28.7% YTD, 1.2% below the $404.00 record close of 21 Oct and 53% above the $260.58 low of 31 Oct 2025. It indicated ~$416 (+4.2%) at 08:28 ET on 2 Nov after the release, which would be a new high. Hilton fell 2.1% on its own Q3 print on 27 Oct. | Bullish |
| Revenue growth | Total revenue $7.01B, +8.0%, against ~$6.92B expected. Gross fee revenues $1,522M, +14%: franchise fees +15% (co-branded credit cards, RevPAR, rooms), base management fees +6%, incentive fees +22%. Net rooms +4.6%; record pipeline of over 634,000 rooms. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Adjusted EBITDA $1,512M, +12%. Adjusted operating margin 66% of adjusted revenue (65% a year ago). Adjusted EPS $3.02, +22%; GAAP EPS $3.04, +14%. Owned and leased profit fell to $41M from $70M (renovations, a hotel sale). | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 33.0× the new full-year adjusted EPS midpoint ($12.11) and 39.8× TTM GAAP EPS; EV/EBITDA 20.4× TTM adjusted. Below Hilton (49.3×) but above IHG (35.5×) and Wyndham (27.5×). The consensus target, $383.52 (MarketBeat), sits 3.9% below the close and ~8% below the indicated open. | Bearish |
| Platform KPIs | Worldwide RevPAR +6.5%: US & Canada +7.4% (systemwide occupancy 73.9%, +1.7 pts), international +4.4%, with APEC over 9% and EMEA over 4%. Middle East & Africa still negative but much better than Q2. US luxury RevPAR +12.4% (company-operated). Bonvoy ~309M members. | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Debt $16.8B (up from $16.2B at year-end), cash $0.45B; net debt 2.8× TTM adjusted EBITDA. Shareholders' deficit $5.08B after buybacks. Q3 issued $1.25B of notes; credit facility raised to $5.0B, due 2031. Buybacks of $3.4B YTD (9.6M shares) through 28 Oct. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend since 6 Oct (20 periods). Persistency +0.110, the window high (100th percentile), up from −0.31 a year ago; Volatility +0.450 (94.8th percentile). Not on a boundary. As of 31 Oct 2026 (0 trading days behind); it predates the release. | Bullish |
| Driver exposure | 77.2% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 −0.477 (R² 22.8%), the strongest sector link in recent reports; Market Driver 1 ~0. One-year correlation with Hilton 0.83, IHG 0.74, Hyatt 0.73, Wyndham 0.54, the consumer discretionary sector 0.42 and the S&P 500 0.30 (beta 0.63). It trades as a hotel-group stock. As of 30 Oct 2026. | Mixed |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Valuation after a beat. The stock has risen 12.5% in a month into the print and indicates a new high; most targets are below the price. After the February beat it rose 8.5% on the day and then fell 12.0% over 21 sessions. Middle East disruption and US travel softness are the operating risks. | Mixed |
| Catalysts in window | Post-print target and estimate changes (from 2 Nov, just before), the Q4 dividend declaration (expected), US CPI and weekly US hotel data through November, options expiry (20 Nov), Thanksgiving travel (26 Nov) and the planned Q4 sale of a US hotel. The next report (~Feb 2027) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed, leaning positive. This was a clean beat and raise: RevPAR almost three points above the guide, fees +14%, full-year EPS raised ~3.2% and capital return lifted. Its own regime is trending, and estimates and targets will rise. But the stock already trades at 33× this year's earnings, above most targets, and February showed that a beat can be followed by a sharp fade. Composite 7.4 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (12 Nov – 2 Dec 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime readings as of 31 Oct 2026 and market regimes as of 31 Oct 2026 (0 trading days behind); drivers as of 30 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind. The release came before the open on 2 Nov; the pre-market price (~$416 at 08:28 ET) is an indication, not a session close. Consensus: vendor EPS estimate $2.85 (Yahoo) and revenue ~$6.92B (24/7 Wall St.). Total revenue includes ~$5.1B of cost reimbursements, so fee revenue is the better growth measure.
Marriott did more than enough: demand accelerated, fees compounded and the year went up. For the next month the question is not the business but how much further a stock at a record high and above its targets can run on that news.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.5). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.13 + 1.20 + 1.35 + 0.96 + 0.65 + 0.75 + 0.33 = 7.4 (7.36). The composite sits at the top of the Mixed range. It falls short of Bullish because valuation, the second-largest weight, scores 6.0 with the stock above most targets.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-earnings fade | Market | Record high, price above consensus target | Yes |
| Hotel-sector rotation | Market | 0.83 correlation with Hilton; Sector Driver 1 | Possible |
| US travel and CPI data | Macro | Tests the US RevPAR strength behind the raise | Possible |
| Middle East conflict | Geopolitical | International RevPAR and sentiment | Possible |
| Lodging cycle | Structural | RevPAR slowdown hits fees, especially incentive fees | Structural |
| Leverage | Financial | Debt-funded buybacks; $5.1B deficit | Structural |
| Development slowdown | Competitive | Owner financing costs; conversion competition | Structural |
The live risks are about positioning, not operations: a stock at a record after a beat can give some of it back, and Marriott moves closely with the other hotel companies. Nothing in the quarter suggests the business itself is at risk inside the window.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2 Nov 2026 | $7,005M | +1.2% | $3.04 ($3.02) | +6.0% | ~+4.2% (pre-market) |
| Q2 2026 | 3 Aug 2026 | $7,071M | n/c | $2.90 ($3.19) | +3.6% | −7.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 6 May 2026 | $6,654M | n/c | $2.43 ($2.72) | +6.5% | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | 10 Feb 2026 | $6,690M | n/c | $1.67 ($2.58) | −1.5% | +8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 4 Nov 2025 | $6,489M | n/c | $2.67 ($2.47) | +3.5% | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | 5 Aug 2025 | $6,744M | n/c | $2.78 ($2.65) | +1.1% | +0.2% |
EPS is GAAP diluted with adjusted diluted EPS in brackets; the surprise is the vendor's (Yahoo) adjusted estimate. Marriott reports before the open, so the reaction is the same session; Q3 2026 is the pre-market indication at 08:28 ET. Q4 2025 GAAP EPS ($1.67) is derived from the annual and nine-month figures and includes the Sonder termination charges. Revenue consensus for Q3 2026 per 24/7 Wall St. ($6.92B); earlier quarters not compiled (n/c). 21-session moves after each reaction, oldest to newest: +3.5%, +8.7%, −12.0%, +9.3%, −3.5%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | 1/1 sourced | 83% (5/6) | Quarterly and annual RevPAR, EBITDA, EPS |
| Hilton | 0/1 sourced | 1/1 sourced | Quarterly and annual RevPAR, EBITDA, EPS |
| Hyatt | n/c | n/c | Annual RevPAR, EBITDA |
| IHG | n/c | n/c | Half-yearly; quarterly trading updates |
| Wyndham | n/c | n/c | Annual RevPAR, EBITDA, EPS |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Hilton's Q3 2026 (27 Oct): revenue $3.33B against $3.36B expected, adjusted EPS $2.45 against $2.35 (Finviz). Other peer histories were not compiled because the vendor's quote service returned errors.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 worldwide RevPAR | +4.5% to +5.0% | From +3.0% to +3.5% in August |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS | $12.07–12.14 | From $11.64–11.81; +21% on 2025's $10.02 |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA | $6,075–6,098M | From $5,965–6,025M |
| Q4 2026 adjusted EPS | $3.14–3.21 | RevPAR +4.5% to +5.0% |
| Capital return 2026 | ≥$4,800M | From over $4,500M; ~$4.0B done through 28 Oct |
| Net rooms growth | Low end of 4.5–5% | Unchanged |
| Next quarterly report | ~Feb 2027 | Outside the window; 2027 outlook expected then |
Marriott raised every major line and beat its own RevPAR guide by almost three points, the kind of print that drives estimate upgrades for weeks. The next report, with the 2027 outlook, is outside the window.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 (print) | Investing.com, 24/7 Wall St. | Bullish | EPS $3.02 vs $2.85 and revenue $7.00B vs $6.92B; guidance raised; shares up over 3% pre-market |
| 19–22 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Bernstein, Wells Fargo, Baird | Bullish | Five target increases or reiterations ahead of the print: $395–426; JPMorgan and Baird remain Neutral |
| 14–16 Oct 2026 | Jefferies, Freedom Broker, Barclays | Mixed | Jefferies $417 → $429; Freedom Broker initiates at Buy, $408; Barclays Equal Weight, $348 → $363 |
| Sep 2026 | TD Cowen, Truist, Wolfe | Mixed | TD Cowen upgrades to Strong-Buy; Truist Hold, $360; Wolfe initiates at Hold |
| 28–30 Oct 2026 | Skift (via ad-hoc-news) | Neutral | Corporate job cuts confirmed as part of the regular budgeting process; no numbers disclosed |
| Consensus | 27–29 analysts | Mixed | MarketBeat "Moderate Buy" (2 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell), mean $383.52; Stockanalysis.com "Buy", median $395 |
Sources: MarketBeat (30 Oct 2026), Stockanalysis.com (22 Oct 2026), ad-hoc-news.de (Jefferies, 14 Oct; job cuts, 30 Oct), Investing.com and 24/7 Wall St. (2 Nov). Post-print target changes had not been published at the time of writing (before the 2 Nov open).
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | Marriott family entity (reported by D. Marriott Harrison, D. S. Marriott, J. W. Marriott Jr.) | Sale | 3,500 | $352.09 | $1.23M | Small; family holdings remain large |
| 8 Sep 2026 | JWM Family Enterprises | Capital distribution to J. W. Marriott Jr. | 2,000,000 | — | — | Transfer within the family; no sale, no consideration |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Neal Jones, President EMEA | Shares withheld for tax | 107 | $355.49 | $0.04M | Not a discretionary sale |
| 18 May 2026 | Peggy Roe, EVP & Chief Customer Officer | Sale | 3,000 | $361.56 | $1.08M | ~13% of holding |
| 13 May 2026 | Yibing Mao, President Greater China | Sale | 4,816 | $347.72 | $1.67M | ~15% of holding |
| 2026 to 28 Oct | Company | Buyback | 9.6M | ~$354 | $3.4B | About 3.6% of shares |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR (May – Oct 2026; 31 filings parsed, most of them director stock grants and family gifts) and the Q3 release. None of the sales were flagged as 10b5-1. There were no open-market purchases. The Marriott family retains large holdings. Insider activity carries little signal for the window.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~Feb 2027 | Marriott (expected) | Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook | No |
| Q4 2026 | Marriott release | Planned sale of a US & Canada hotel (assumed in guidance) | Possible |
| 26 Nov 2026 | Calendar | Thanksgiving travel week; read on US leisure demand | Yes |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry after a post-earnings gap | Yes |
| Nov 2026 (expected) | Marriott board | Quarterly dividend declaration (2025: $2.64 a share for the year) | Yes |
| Nov 2026 | Sell-side | Post-print target and estimate revisions from a $383.52 mean | Yes |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Marriott release | Q3: RevPAR +6.5%, adjusted EPS $3.02, guidance raised; ~+4% pre-market | No, sets the base |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Skift (via ad-hoc-news) | Marriott confirms corporate job cuts in HR, IT and quality functions | No, sets the base |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Hilton release | Q3: revenue $3.33B (miss), adjusted EPS $2.45 (beat), RevPAR outlook raised; HLT −2.1% | No, sets the base |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Market data | MAR closes at a record $404.00 | No, sets the base |
| 24 Sep 2026 | SEC 8-K | Credit facility refinanced: $5.0B, maturity September 2031 | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 2 Nov 2026 report date (12 Nov – 2 Dec 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Just before: the 2 Nov session and the first wave of target changes. Through November: further revisions, the expected dividend declaration, and weekly US hotel data that test the US strength behind the raise. 20 Nov: options expiry. 26 Nov: Thanksgiving travel. Marriott has no scheduled report before February.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | $399.30 | $104.1B | $27.42B | 3.80× | +8.0% | Moderate Buy · $383.52 | Positive |
| Hilton (HLT) | $356.92 | ~$82.0B | $12.69B | 6.46× | +6.6% | n/c | Mixed |
| IHG (IHG) | $167.81 | ~$24.6B | $5.33B | 4.61× | n/c | n/c | Neutral |
| Hyatt (H) | $180.57 | ~$17.0B | $3.39B | 5.02× | −2.4% | n/c | Positive |
| Wyndham (WH) | $75.20 | ~$5.6B | $1.42B | 3.94× | +7.3% | n/c | Neutral |
| Peer median | — | ~$20.8B | $4.36B | 4.82× | +6.6% | — | — |
Prices are at the 30 Oct 2026 close; MAR indicated ~$416 before the 2 Nov open. MAR revenue is TTM to Sep 2026 from SEC XBRL and the Q3 release; market cap uses 260.77M shares. Peer market caps (~) are Stockanalysis.com values (20–27 Oct) scaled to the 30 Oct close; peer TTM revenue is from Stockanalysis.com, and definitions differ (some exclude cost reimbursements), so P/S is only a rough guide. Latest-quarter growth is Q3 2026 revenue from SEC XBRL; IHG reports half-yearly (n/c). Hyatt's positive sentiment reflects a 6.3% rise on 29 Oct. Peer consensus views were not available (n/c); MAR consensus is MarketBeat.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley (Stephen Grambling) | $403 | $384 | 22 Oct 2026 | +0.9% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan (Daniel Politzer) | $406 | $388 | 21 Oct 2026 | +1.7% | Neutral | ▲ Raised |
| Bernstein (Richard Clarke) | $402 | — | 21 Oct 2026 | +0.7% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Baird (Michael Bellisario) | $395 | $393 | 19 Oct 2026 | −1.1% | Hold | ▲ Raised |
| Wells Fargo (Trey Bowers) | $426 | $425 | 19 Oct 2026 | +6.7% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| Barclays (Brandt Montour) | $363 | $348 | 16 Oct 2026 | −9.1% | Equal Weight | ▲ Raised |
| Jefferies | $429 | $417 | 14 Oct 2026 | +7.4% | Not stated | ▲ Raised |
| Freedom Broker (M. Narzulloev) | $408 | — | 14 Oct 2026 | +2.2% | Buy (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| Truist (Patrick Scholes) | $360 | $356 | 10 Sep 2026 | −9.8% | Hold | ▲ Raised |
| TD Cowen (Kevin Kopelman) | — | — | 8 Sep 2026 | — | Strong Buy (upgrade) | ▲ Raised |
Implied return is measured against the $399.30 close on 30 Oct 2026; at ~$416 each is about 4 points lower. Sources: MarketBeat (30 Oct 2026), Stockanalysis.com (22 Oct 2026), ad-hoc-news.de (Jefferies). Every target change since September has been an increase, but half the targets listed are within 2% of the close or below it.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $399.30 |
| Consensus target | $383.52 |
| Median target | $395.00 |
| High target | $445.00 |
| Low target | $280.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | −3.9% |
| Implied downside to low | −29.9% |
| Analysts contributing | 27 |
Consensus, high and low from MarketBeat (27 analysts); median from Stockanalysis.com (29 analysts, mean $386.81). The consensus sits below the price before any post-print revisions.
| $280 |
| $384 |
| $395 |
| $445 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $6,744M | +7.7% | +4.7% | $2.78 | n/d | $1,415M | 18.3% | Beat | +0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $6,489M | −3.8% | +3.7% | $2.67 | 21.6% | $1,349M | 18.2% | Beat | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6,690M | +3.1% | +4.1% | $1.67 | n/d | $1,402M | 11.6% | Miss | +8.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $6,654M | −0.5% | +6.2% | $2.43 | n/d | $1,398M | 16.0% | Beat | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $7,071M | +6.3% | +4.8% | $2.90 | n/d | $1,592M | 17.4% | Beat | −7.0% |
| Q3 2026 | $7,005M | −0.9% | +8.0% | $3.04 | 22.0% | $1,512M | 18.2% | Beat | ~+4.2% (pre-market) |
Revenue is total revenue including cost reimbursements (~$5.1B in Q3 2026). Margin is the GAAP operating margin; Q4 2025 includes Sonder termination charges. Gross margin is revenue less owned, leased and other expense and reimbursed expenses (derived; only the Q3 figures were in the releases reviewed, n/d otherwise). Adjusted EBITDA is company-reported. "vs Est." is adjusted EPS against the vendor estimate. Marriott reports before the open, so the reaction is the same session.
Total revenue rose 8.0% year on year in Q3. The GAAP operating margin has recovered to 18.2% after the Sonder charges in Q4 2025; adjusted EBITDA has grown 12–15% year on year in every quarter of 2026.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 1.5–3.0 target · below; normal for an asset-light fee model |
| Quick ratio | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.37 | ≥1.0 · below; cash plus receivables |
| Cash ratio | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.05 | Cash $0.45B; relies on a $5.0B credit facility |
Derived from SEC XBRL balance sheets. Current liabilities include loyalty-programme and deferred revenue balances that are settled in service rather than cash.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyndham | 0.99 | −$2.61B | Adequate |
| IHG | 0.66 | −$3.72B | Adequate |
| Hilton | 0.65 | −$13.01B | Adequate; levered by design |
| Hyatt | 0.62 | −$3.80B | Adequate |
| MAR (Sep 26) | 0.53 | −$16.35B | Adequate; investment-grade, revolver-backed |
| Peer median | 0.66 | −$3.76B | — |
Peer figures from Stockanalysis.com (20–27 Oct 2026). Marriott's net debt is $16.8B of debt less $0.45B of cash.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | n/m | n/m | n/m | Shareholders' deficit: −$5.08B, −$3.77B, −$2.99B |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.60 | 0.59 | n/d | <0.5 conservative · above |
| Interest coverage | 5.0× (TTM) | 5.1× | 5.4× | >2.5 healthy · passed; GAAP operating income over interest expense |
| Debt service coverage | 6.8× (TTM) | 6.7× | n/d | >1.25 healthy · adjusted EBITDA over interest |
All ratios derived. Debt is from the Q3 release ($16.8B) and year-end 2025 ($16.2B); the 2024 year-end total was not in the materials reviewed (n/d). Debt service coverage uses interest only because maturities are refinanced. The deficit reflects buybacks, not losses.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 22.0% | 21.8% | 21.6% | n/d | n/d | ▲ |
| Operating margin | 18.2% | 15.8% | 18.2% | 15.8% | 15.0% | ► Stable |
| Adjusted operating margin | 66% | 65% (9M) | 65% | 64% (9M) | n/d | ▲ |
| Net margin | 11.3% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | ► Stable |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 21.6% | 21.5% | 20.8% | 20.6% | n/d | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 2.8% (q) | 9.5% | n/d | 9.7% | 9.2% | ► Stable |
| Return on equity | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | Negative equity |
| DuPont (NPM × AT) | — | 9.7% × 0.99 | — | 9.9% × 0.97 | — | Margin-led |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. Margins on total revenue are depressed by ~$20B a year of cost reimbursements that pass through at no profit; the adjusted operating margin (company-reported, on revenue excluding reimbursements) is the better measure. TTM gross margin is the vendor's. Adjusted EBITDA margin here is on total revenue (derived). With negative equity, ROE is not meaningful, so DuPont is shown as ROA = net margin × asset turnover.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyndham | 62.8% | 37.6% | 14.6% | 39.7% | 39.4% | 1 of 5 |
| Hilton | 35.8% | 23.9% | 13.4% | 25.4% | n/m | 2 of 5 |
| IHG | 61.0% | 23.7% | 13.4% | 24.1% | n/m | 3 of 5 |
| MAR (TTM) | 21.8% | 15.8% | 9.7% | 21.5% | n/m | 4 of 5 |
| Hyatt | 43.4% | 15.5% | 2.3% | 24.7% | 2.2% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 52.2% | 23.8% | 13.4% | 25.1% | 20.8% | — |
Peer ratios are TTM from Stockanalysis.com; peer EBITDA is vendor EBITDA. Rank is by operating margin. Revenue definitions differ: Marriott and Hilton include large cost-reimbursement revenue, which compresses their reported margins, so this ranking understates Marriott's fee profitability.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.99 | 0.97 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets ($27.8B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$66k | — | On ~414,000 employees (vendor; mostly hotel staff on reimbursed payroll) |
| Adjusted EPS growth (9M) | +20% | — | $8.93 against $7.44 |
| Gross fee growth (9M) | +13% | — | $4,533M against $4,013M |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | $4.07B | $3.21B (FY25) | 9M 2026 $3.24B, +36% |
| Dividend yield | ~0.73% | — | Vendor yield rescaled; most capital return is buybacks |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | 0.99 | ~$66k | ~414,000 | +20% (adj., 9M) | ~0.73% | 1 of 5 |
| Wyndham | 0.33 | ~$710k | 2,000 | n/c | ~2.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Hilton | 0.76 | ~$70k | 182,000 | n/c | ~0.16% | 3 of 5 |
| Hyatt | 0.23 | ~$68k | 50,000 | n/c | ~0.33% | 4 of 5 |
| IHG | 1.05 | ~$408k | 13,049 | n/c | ~1.1% | n/c |
| Peer median | 0.55 | ~$239k | ~31,500 | n/c | ~0.72% | — |
Growth rank is by Q3 2026 reported revenue growth; IHG reports half-yearly (n/c). Peer data from Stockanalysis.com, with dividend yields scaled to the 30 Oct close (~); revenue per employee is derived. Peer EPS growth was not available (n/c).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worldwide RevPAR (constant $) | — | — | +6.5% | Guide was +3.5% to +4.0% |
| US & Canada RevPAR (systemwide) | $146.29 | — | +7.4% | Occupancy 73.9%, +1.7 pts |
| International RevPAR (systemwide) | $121.74 | — | +4.4% | Occupancy 69.7%, flat; APEC over +9% |
| Gross fee revenues | $1,522M | $1,338M | +14% | Franchise +15%, base management +6%, incentive +22% |
| Incentive management fees | $181M | $148M | +22% | All regions up |
| Net rooms | ~1,834,000 | — | +4.6% | ~20,100 added in Q3; 13,400 international |
| Pipeline (rooms) | 634,000+ | — | Record | 44% under construction |
| Marriott Bonvoy members | ~309M | — | — | Partnerships with Uber, Starbucks |
From the Q3 2026 release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99). Year-ago RevPAR levels and some prior figures were not compiled (—).
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 39.8× | GAAP EPS $10.04; 34.7× on adjusted $11.51; peer median 42.4× |
| P/E forward (guidance) | 33.0× | FY2026 adjusted EPS midpoint $12.11 (~31.7× vendor forward) |
| Price / book | n/m | Shareholders' deficit −$5.08B |
| Price / sales TTM | 3.80× | On total revenue including reimbursements |
| EV / adjusted EBITDA | 20.4× | EV $120.5B over TTM $5.90B; 19.8× on the FY2026 guide midpoint |
| Operating cash flow yield | 3.9% | TTM $4.07B over market cap (derived) |
| Capital return yield (2026) | ~4.6% | At least $4.8B over market cap |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | $399.30 | $104.1B | $27.42B | 3.80× | −21% |
| Hilton | $356.92 | ~$82.0B | $12.69B | 6.46× | +34% |
| Hyatt | $180.57 | ~$17.0B | $3.39B | 5.02× | +4% |
| IHG | $167.81 | ~$24.6B | $5.33B | 4.61× | −4% |
| Wyndham | $75.20 | ~$5.6B | $1.42B | 3.94× | −18% |
| Peer median | — | ~$20.8B | $4.36B | 4.82× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | $10.04 | 39.8× | +8.0% | 2.63 | Full; growth well understood |
| Hilton | $7.24 | 49.3× | +6.6% | n/a | The group's premium multiple |
| IHG | $4.73 | 35.5× | n/c | n/a | Asset-light; slightly cheaper |
| Wyndham | $2.73 | 27.5× | +7.3% | 1.47 | Economy segment discount |
| Hyatt | $0.83 | 217.5× | −2.4% | 0.45 | GAAP EPS depressed by one-offs |
| Peer median | — | 42.4× | +6.6% | 0.96 | — |
Peer TTM EPS is price over the vendor P/E (derived); peer P/E is the vendor value scaled to the 30 Oct close. PEGs are the vendor's; the peer median uses the two available. The peer P/E median is inflated by Hyatt.
Marriott is not expensive against Hilton, but it is not cheap in absolute terms: 33× this year's earnings for ~20% EPS growth helped by buybacks. The multiple holds as long as RevPAR and fees keep beating; it leaves little room for a stumble.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 9 Sep 2025 – 31 Oct 2026 (290 observations, including some weekend rows); the trace plots 146 points, every second row. As of 31 Oct 2026, 0 trading days behind the 2 Nov 2026 report date. The reading predates the release. The Individual tab scales Volatility from −0.5 to +0.5.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.1096 | −0.1617 | 0.1439 | −0.3108 | 0.1096 | 100.0 | At the window high; rising steadily since September |
| Volatility | 0.4497 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4952 | 0.4986 | 94.8 | Elevated since 21 Oct, near the scale ceiling |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 20 periods (6 – 31 Oct). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not on a boundary. As of 31 Oct 2026, 0 trading days behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 11.0% | 21–22 Jul, 11–24 Sep and since 6 Oct 2026 |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 39.3% | Repeated bursts through 2026 |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 46.2% | The default state |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 3.4% | 23–27 Jul and 25 Sep – 5 Oct 2026 |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 8 | The usual cycle |
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 6 | And back |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 2 | 21 Jul and 11 Sep 2026 |
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 2 | 23 Jul and 25 Sep 2026 |
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 1 | 6 Oct 2026, the current run |
| Quiet drift → Quiet range | 1 | 28 Jul 2026 |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Range had a median of +3.9% (74% positive, 134 observations) and from Volatile Chop −0.5% (49%, 114). Volatile Trend has 12 complete observations (median +12.0%, 83% positive) and Quiet Drift 8 (thin samples, no conclusion drawn). Over the last 500 sessions the unconditional median was +1.4% (58% positive). As of 31 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. For most of the past year Marriott cycled between a quiet range and choppy bursts with Persistency well below zero. Since September it has climbed into positive territory for the first time in the window, and the stock has been trending. These statistics describe 9 Sep 2025 – 31 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.020 | 0.0 | 0.202 | −0.349 | 0.225 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.081 | 0.6 | −0.225 | −0.322 | 0.166 | Variable | Negative |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.087 | 0.8 | 0.055 | −0.206 | 0.382 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.038 | 0.1 | −0.103 | −0.298 | 0.240 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.073 | 0.5 | −0.320 | −0.335 | 0.301 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.477 | 22.8 | −0.298 | −0.789 | 0.002 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.017 | 0.0 | −0.021 | −0.348 | 0.350 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.025 | 0.1 | −0.081 | −0.304 | 0.452 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of MAR against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Window 1 Nov 2024 – 30 Oct 2026, 500 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's link has never turned positive on a rolling basis (range −0.79 to 0.00) but is weaker now (−0.30). Market Driver 1's rolling reading (0.20) is near its two-year high (0.23). Drivers as of 30 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00002 | 0.023 | 0.2% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.25156 | −0.479 | 99.8% |
Marriott is mostly idiosyncratic but with a real sector component: about a fifth of its daily variance is the hotel and travel group moving together. Over the next month company news (the beat and revisions) leads, but a group move, as on Hilton's results day, can override it. A hotel-peer hedge offsets far more than an index hedge.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against MAR daily returns, Jan 2025 – Oct 2026. On the latest reading (30 Oct) Market Driver 1 is +0.20 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.30. As of 30 Oct 2026.
MAR daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window ~2 years to 31 Oct 2026, ~500 overlapping days per group. Buckets under 30 days are marked thin (Bonds long Quiet Drift, 20 days, and Volatile Trend, 14; Energy Quiet Drift, 10; VIX Mid Volatile Trend, 19). The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 102 | 20.4% | +13.2% | +35.8% | 22.3% | 1.61 | 51.0% | +4.66% | −3.08% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 148 | 29.6% | +16.9% | +30.4% | 25.5% | 1.19 | 52.7% | +4.56% | −7.23% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 96 | 19.2% | +7.7% | +21.5% | 28.2% | 0.76 | 49.0% | +8.15% | −4.16% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 154 | 30.8% | +7.8% | +13.0% | 33.0% | 0.4 | 53.2% | +10.03% | −7.68% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 105 | 21.0% | +23.8% | +66.9% | 24.1% | 2.78 | 48.6% | +4.66% | −2.69% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 126 | 25.2% | +15.1% | +32.4% | 26.1% | 1.24 | 51.6% | +8.15% | −4.16% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 164 | 32.8% | +9.8% | +15.4% | 32.4% | 0.48 | 52.4% | +10.03% | −7.68% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 105 | 21.0% | −1.8% | −4.2% | 26.0% | −0.16 | 54.3% | +4.31% | −7.23% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 35 | 7.0% | +19.3% | +256.4% | 19.4% | 13.22 | 65.7% | +3.67% | −1.80% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 33 | 6.6% | +8.1% | +81.3% | 25.1% | 3.23 | 51.5% | +3.17% | −2.67% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 224 | 44.8% | +22.5% | +25.7% | 29.2% | 0.88 | 50.0% | +10.03% | −5.55% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 208 | 41.6% | −2.8% | −3.4% | 27.9% | −0.12 | 51.4% | +8.15% | −7.68% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe among buckets of 30 days or more. Cumulative return is the compounded MAR return across all days spent in that regime (derived). Global market's Quiet Drift Sharpe of 13.2 rests on 35 days and should be treated with great caution. Market regimes as of 31 Oct 2026, 0 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for MAR | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +16.9% | 1.19 | 1.21 | 42 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −1.8% | −0.16 | 2.94 | 42 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +19.3% | 13.22 | 13.34 | 36 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +21.8% | 1.05 | 4.52 | 115 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −5.8% | −0.69 | 3.19 | 5 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +3.6% | 0.24 | 4.20 | 30 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +1.8% | 0.19 | 3.71 | 6 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −3.2% | −0.21 | 6.33 | 6 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +87.4% | 1.65 | 3.35 | 63 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +18.1% | 6.59 | 6.48 | 8 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +30.1% | 2.02 | 2.37 | 126 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | +0.6% | 0.13 | 1.38 | 2 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −1.0% | −0.09 | 5.55 | 3 |
| Bonds long | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −5.9% | −2.44 | 4.32 | 2 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5. Best and worst are by Sharpe and include thin buckets; Bonds long's and Energy's extremes rest on thin samples. Market regimes as of 31 Oct 2026, 0 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes roughly two years to 31 Oct 2026, not the future. Four buckets hold fewer than 30 days and are marked thin, and several more are only just above the line; a handful of earnings-day moves (+8.5% in February, −7.0% in August) dominate some totals. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 31 Oct 2026, 0 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 26 | Marriott reports Q3: RevPAR +6.5%, adjusted EPS $3.02, adjusted EBITDA $1.51B (+12%); outlook raised (company release) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | Shares rise over 3% pre-market after raising the full-year forecast (Investing.com) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | Beats as US demand helps boost outlook (Bloomberg headline) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | RevPAR surges 6.5%; EPS $3.02 vs $2.85 and revenue $7.00B vs $6.92B (24/7 Wall St.) | Positive |
| 30 Oct 26 | Marriott faces corporate cuts before Q3 results (ad-hoc-news, citing Skift) | Negative |
| 27 Oct 26 | Hilton raises its RevPAR outlook, but revenue misses and shares fall (Finviz, Lodging) | Mixed |
| 22 Oct 26 | Morgan Stanley raises its target to $403 (MarketBeat, ad-hoc-news) | Positive |
| 21 Oct 26 | Stock clears $404 to a 52-week high (24/7 Wall St.) | Positive |
| 21 Oct 26 | JPMorgan raises its target to $406, keeps Neutral (Stockanalysis.com) | Neutral |
| 14 Oct 26 | Jefferies lifts its target to $429 (ad-hoc-news) | Positive |
| 24 Sep 26 | Credit facility refinanced and enlarged to $5.0B (SEC 8-K) | Neutral |
| 3 Aug 26 | Q2 beat, but a 43% Middle East RevPAR decline weighs; shares −7.0% (BigGo Finance, company release) | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company releases and 8-Ks on EDGAR, Investing.com, Bloomberg and Finviz (headlines), 24/7 Wall St., ad-hoc-news.de, MarketBeat, Stockanalysis.com, BigGo Finance, Lodging Magazine. The narrative has moved from Middle East drag (August) to US-led acceleration (now).
| Field | Marriott International, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Marriott International, Inc. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | Nasdaq: MAR · current company listed in 1998 after the spin-off from the original Marriott | Hilton, Hyatt, IHG and Wyndham on NYSE |
| Domicile | United States (Delaware; headquarters Bethesda, MD) | IHG is UK-based |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Discretionary · Lodging (franchising and management) | Hilton is the closest peer |
| Market cap | $104.1B (260.77M shares × $399.30) | The largest in the group |
| Employees | ~414,000 (vendor; includes property-level staff) | Hilton 182,000 |
| TTM revenue | $27.42B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026), including ~$20B of cost reimbursements | The largest in the group |
| Revenue model | Franchise, base and incentive management fees ($1.52B in Q3), co-branded card and residential fees, a few owned and leased hotels, and pass-through cost reimbursements | Peers similar; Hyatt owns more |
| Key differentiators | Over 10,200 properties and ~1.83M rooms in 148 countries; record 634,000-room pipeline; ~309M Marriott Bonvoy members | The largest global system |
| CIK | 0001048286 | — |
| Website | marriott.com/investor | — |
Marriott's third quarter was a clean beat and raise: worldwide RevPAR +6.5% against a 3.5–4.0% guide, gross fees +14%, adjusted EPS $3.02 against $2.85, full-year EPS raised ~3% and capital return lifted to at least $4.8B. Its own regime is trending, the market map is mostly supportive, and targets will move up. Against that, the stock rose 12.5% in the month before the print, indicated a new high above $404, trades at 33× this year's earnings and above most targets, and gave back 12% after a similar beat in February. The view turns bullish if the gap holds above $404 while targets move above $420. It turns bearish if the gap fades and MAR closes below $390.