Close 2 Nov 2026
$214.44
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was a record $1.24B, up 10% and about 3% above consensus. Xywav grew 12% with 425 net patient adds, oncology rose 34%, and full-year revenue guidance went to $4.775–4.85B from $4.60–4.75B. A pre-announced $754M Actio charge turned the quarter into a $3.88 adjusted loss per share; without it adjusted EPS was $7.15. The stock closed at $214.44, 18% below its August high, and barely moved after hours. Over the next 10–30 days estimate revisions, a new $500M buyback and early Ziihera demand support it, while Takeda's orexin launch in narcolepsy is the risk the market is pricing.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $214.44 on 2 Nov, down 9.0% from $235.67 on 2 Oct and 18.0% below the $261.62 high of 4 Aug, but +26.1% YTD and 63% above the $131.16 low of 7 Nov 2025. It fell 3.8% on 8 Oct and 3.9% on 26 Oct, when the Actio charge was pre-announced. After hours on 2 Nov it traded ~$215–217 (+0.3–1%). | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | Total revenue $1,243M, +10.4%, against ~$1.20–1.21B expected. Sleep $514M (+10%), epilepsy $295M (−2%), oncology $387M (+34%). Nine-month revenue +14.7%. Full-year guidance raised to $4.775–4.85B (+12–14%), the second raise in a row and ~1.6% above consensus at the midpoint. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Non-GAAP gross margin 91.5%; adjusted SG&A fell to 26% of revenue (a $152M litigation settlement inflated last year's figure). The $754M Actio IPR&D charge drove a GAAP net loss of $483M (−$7.48 a share) and an adjusted loss of $3.88; excluding it, adjusted EPS was $7.15 against $8.13 a year ago. | Mixed |
| Valuation vs peers | About 8.3× TTM adjusted EPS excluding the Actio charge ($25.84) and ~10× the vendor's forward estimate; EV/EBITDA ~8.4×. P/S 2.95× against a 6.31× median for Neurocrine, United Therapeutics, Alkermes and Halozyme. Consensus target $292.05 (MarketBeat), 36% above the close. | Bullish |
| Platform KPIs | Xywav $483M (+12%) with ~425 net patient adds to ~17,550 active patients (11,375 narcolepsy, 6,175 idiopathic hypersomnia). Ziihera $21M in its first partial quarter in first-line gastric cancer; new ordering accounts tripled. Modeyso $61M; Zepzelca $104M (+32%). | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Cash and investments $2.86B against $5.6B of debt principal (net debt ~$2.7B, ~1.4× EBITDA). Added $1.25B of 1.875% exchangeable notes due 2032, extended the term loan to 2033 and bought back $225M of stock; a new $500M buyback was approved in October. Nine-month operating cash flow $1.33B. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend since 16 Oct (13 sessions), the first time Persistency has been positive in the window. Persistency +0.118 (99th percentile, high +0.125 on 30 Oct); Volatility +0.284 (78th percentile). Not on a boundary. As of 2 Nov 2026 (1 trading day lag); it predates the release. | Bullish |
| Driver exposure | 93.1% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 −0.262 (R² 6.9%); Market Driver 1 ~0. One-year correlation with the biotech sector 0.37, United Therapeutics 0.33, Halozyme and Neurocrine 0.25, the S&P 500 0.16 (beta 0.47). Company and competitor news decide the month. As of 2 Nov 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Orexin competition. Takeda's Orzeyful (oveporexton), approved for narcolepsy type 1 around August, expected DEA scheduling within ~90 days, so a launch may fall inside the window. Sleep products are 41% of revenue; early prescription data or pricing could weigh on the multiple. Short interest is ~8.4% of shares. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Post-print target revisions (from 3 Nov, just before), initial ABS-1230 patient data at a medical meeting in 4Q26 (date not given), early Ziihera ordering trends, buyback execution, the possible Orzeyful launch, and options expiry (20 Nov). Modeyso ACTION data (1H27) and the Epidiolex capsule PDUFA (16 Apr 2027) are outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed, leaning positive. The commercial business did what it needed to: revenue beat, guidance went up again, Xywav kept adding patients and Ziihera started well. On underlying earnings the stock is cheap, the regime has turned to trending and the market map is supportive. But repeated large acquisition charges cloud earnings quality, and the sleep franchise faces its first approved orexin competitor, possibly launching inside the window. Composite 7.4 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (13 Nov – 3 Dec 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime, driver and market-regime readings as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date. The release came after the close on 2 Nov; the after-hours price is an indication, not a session close. Consensus: Investing.com (revenue $1.20B) and StockStory via FinancialContent ($1.21B; adjusted EPS −$2.38, which only partly reflected the Actio charge). Ex-charge figures are company-derived ($11.03 a share).
Jazz's operating business is growing faster than its guidance and trades at a single-digit multiple of underlying earnings. The market's question is not this quarter but how much of the sleep franchise the new orexin drugs will take, and the first of them is about to launch.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.0). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.75 + 1.80 + 1.35 + 0.72 + 0.60 + 0.80 + 0.43 = 7.4 (7.45). The composite sits at the top of the Mixed range. Valuation and regime point up; it stops short of Bullish because the main risk, orexin competition in sleep, can show up inside the window and the market has repeatedly discounted Jazz's adjusted earnings.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orzeyful launch | Competitive | New mechanism in narcolepsy type 1; read-across to Xywav | Yes |
| ABS-1230 initial data | Clinical | First patient data after a $754M charge | Possible |
| Short interest | Market | ~8.4% of shares short; amplifies moves | Possible |
| Biotech sector move | Market | 0.37 correlation with the sector | Possible |
| Orexin class over time | Structural | Multiple agents; possible expansion to idiopathic hypersomnia | Structural |
| Zepzelca competition | Competitive | IMDELLTRA in first-line maintenance (2027) | Structural |
| Leverage | Financial | $5.6B debt; exchangeable notes due 2032 | Structural |
The window's main risk is outside Jazz's control: how fast and how broadly Takeda launches its orexin drug. Jazz's own catalysts (ABS-1230 data, buybacks, Ziihera ordering) are smaller but mostly positive.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2 Nov 2026 | $1,243M | +3.0% | −$7.48 (−$3.88) | −63% (charge) | ~+0.6% (after hours) |
| Q2 2026 | 3 Aug 2026 | $1,208M | n/c | $2.78 ($5.71) | −7.5% | +4.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 5 May 2026 | $1,069M | n/c | $4.43 ($6.34) | +36.2% | +7.7% |
| Q4 2025 | 24 Feb 2026 | $1,198M | n/c | ~$3.27 ($6.64) | +2.0% | +13.2% |
| Q3 2025 | 5 Nov 2025 | $1,126M | n/c | $4.08 ($8.13) | +39.0% | −2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | 5 Aug 2025 | $1,046M | n/c | −$11.74 (−$8.25) | −32.1% | −6.4% |
EPS is GAAP diluted with non-GAAP adjusted in brackets; the surprise is the vendor's (Yahoo) adjusted estimate, which moves with acquired IPR&D charges that consensus only partly captures. Q2 2025 and Q3 2026 include large IPR&D charges (Chimerix and Actio). Q4 2025 GAAP EPS is derived from annual less nine-month net income (~). Jazz reports after the close, so the reaction is the next session; Q3 2026 is the after-hours indication. Q3 2026 revenue consensus per Investing.com ($1.20B) and StockStory ($1.21B). 21-session moves after each reaction, oldest to newest: +22.3%, +26.0%, −3.9%, +4.4%, −6.1%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAZZ | 1/1 sourced | 50% (3/6) | Annual revenue, margins, expenses |
| Neurocrine | n/c | n/c | Annual INGREZZA sales |
| United Therapeutics | n/c | n/c | No formal guidance |
| Alkermes | n/c | n/c | Annual revenue and profit |
| Halozyme | n/c | n/c | Annual revenue, EBITDA, EPS |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Peer beat histories were not compiled: the vendor's quote service returned errors. Jazz's adjusted EPS record is dominated by timing of acquisition charges; excluding them it has generally beaten.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 total revenue | $4,775–4,850M | From $4,600–4,750M; +12–14% on 2025's $4,268M |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 90.5–91.5% | Raised 50 bps |
| Non-GAAP SG&A / R&D | $1,330–1,370M / $725–775M | Unchanged |
| Non-GAAP tax rate | 19.5–21.5% | From 11.5–13.5% (Actio charge not deductible) |
| Diluted shares | 69–70M | Unchanged |
| New buyback | $500M | Approved October; no expiry |
| Next quarterly report | ~late Feb 2027 | Outside the window; 2027 guidance then |
The revenue line is beating and the guide is rising; the EPS line keeps being reset by acquisitions. Inside the window there is no Jazz report, so the market will judge it on revisions, pipeline data and competitor news.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2–3 Nov 2026 (print) | Investing.com, StockStory, Seeking Alpha | Bullish | Revenue beat and second guidance raise; Ziihera framed at $3–5B peak potential; IPR&D-driven EPS miss |
| 28 Oct 2026 | JPMorgan; Weiss Ratings | Mixed | JPMorgan Overweight, $276 → $300; Weiss downgrade to Hold (C+) |
| 7–21 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley, Needham, Citi, Barclays, BofA, RBC, Truist | Bullish | All Buy or equivalent: targets $271–325; Morgan Stanley $322 → $314, RBC $299 → $296, BofA $307 → $313 |
| Sep 2026 | Goldman Sachs, Citi, UBS, Barclays | Bullish | Goldman initiates at Buy, $337; Citi initiates at Buy, $325; UBS $315 → $337 |
| Aug 2026 | Needham, Deutsche Bank, Piper, Baird and others | Bullish | Target increases after Q2 and the Ziihera approval; $275–310 |
| Consensus | 20–22 analysts | Bullish | MarketBeat "Moderate Buy", mean $292.05; Stockanalysis.com "Buy" (13 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 2 Hold), mean $294.27, median $300 |
Sources: MarketBeat (30 Oct 2026), Stockanalysis.com (21–27 Oct 2026), Investing.com, StockStory via FinancialContent, Seeking Alpha (headline). Post-print target changes had not been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | Company | Buyback (with the exchangeable notes) | — | — | $225M | Exhausted the 2024 programme; new $500M approved in October |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Renee Gala, President & CEO | Sale (10b5-1) | 2,000 | $236.40 | $0.47M | Plan adopted 4 Jun 2026; holds 141,394 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Bruce Cozadd, Director (former CEO) | Sale (10b5-1) | 6,000 | $230.33 | $1.38M | Plan adopted 26 Nov 2025; holds 345,875 |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Neena Patil, EVP & Chief Legal Officer | Sale (10b5-1) | 1,200 | $240.94 | $0.29M | Plan adopted 26 Feb 2026; holds 47,671 |
| Aug – Sep 2026 | Directors and officers | ~25 Forms 4 and 144 | — | — | — | Mostly equity vesting and small planned sales (not all reviewed) |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR (three filings read in full; the rest of the Aug – Oct 2026 batch was not individually reviewed), the Q3 release, and Quiver Quantitative. All reviewed sales were under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans and were small relative to holdings. There were no open-market purchases. Insider activity carries little signal for the window.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2027 | FDA (PDUFA) | Decision on the Epidiolex oral capsule formulation | No |
| 1H 2027 | Jazz | Modeyso Phase 3 ACTION overall-survival interim analysis | No |
| ~late Feb 2027 | Jazz (expected) | Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance | No |
| 4Q 2026 (date not given) | Jazz | Initial ABS-1230 (JZP6979) patient data at a medical meeting | Possible |
| Nov 2026 (expected) | Takeda | Orzeyful (oveporexton) launch in narcolepsy type 1 after DEA scheduling (expected within ~90 days of approval) | Possible |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry after the print | Yes |
| Nov 2026 | Sell-side; Jazz | Post-print target revisions from a ~$292 mean; execution of the new $500M buyback | Yes |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Jazz release | Q3: record $1.24B revenue (+10%), guidance raised, $754M Actio charge; flat after hours | No, sets the base |
| 26 Oct 2026 | SEC 8-K | Pre-announces the ~$755M Actio IPR&D charge (~$11 a share); stock −3.9% | No, sets the base |
| 6 Oct 2026 | SEC 8-K | Chief commercial officer Samantha Pearce to retire by 30 Jun 2027 | No, sets the base |
| 30 Sep 2026 | FDA | Zepzelca second-line indication removed from the label | No, sets the base |
| 15 Sep 2026 | SEC 8-K | Actio Biosciences acquisition completed (~$820M), adding ABS-1230 for KCNT1-related epilepsy | No, sets the base |
| 25 Aug 2026 | FDA | Ziihera approved in first-line HER2+ gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 3 Nov 2026 report date (13 Nov – 3 Dec 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. The Orzeyful timing is inferred from Takeda's August statement that DEA scheduling was expected within 90 days; it is not confirmed. The ABS-1230 meeting has not been named.
Just before: the 3 Nov session and the first target changes. Possible in the window: Takeda's Orzeyful launch, the first real-world test of orexin competition for Xywav, and initial ABS-1230 data, the first look at the asset Jazz has just paid $754M for. Ongoing: buyback execution and early Ziihera ordering data. 20 Nov: options expiry.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAZZ | $214.44 | $13.92B | $4.72B | 2.95× | +10.4% | Moderate Buy · $292.05 | Mixed |
| United Therapeutics (UTHR) | $596.13 | ~$25.6B | $3.15B | 8.12× | −2.0% | n/c | Neutral |
| Neurocrine (NBIX) | $145.35 | ~$14.8B | $3.37B | 4.38× | +41.3% | n/c | Neutral |
| Halozyme (HALO) | $128.95 | ~$14.6B | $1.66B | 8.82× | +47.5% | n/c | Positive |
| Alkermes (ALKS) | $44.89 | ~$7.5B | $1.67B | 4.50× | +26.9% | n/c | Neutral |
| Peer median | — | ~$14.7B | $2.41B | 6.31× | +34.1% | — | — |
Prices are at the 2 Nov 2026 close. JAZZ TTM revenue is Q4 2025 – Q3 2026 from SEC XBRL and the Q3 release; market cap uses 64.91M shares. Peer market caps (~) are Stockanalysis.com values (26–31 Oct) scaled to the 2 Nov close; peer TTM revenue is from Stockanalysis.com. Latest-quarter growth is from SEC XBRL: Neurocrine to Sep 2026; United Therapeutics, Alkermes and Halozyme to Jun 2026 (their Q3 figures were not yet in XBRL). Halozyme's sentiment reflects a 17% rise over 30 days. Peer consensus views were not available (n/c); JAZZ consensus is MarketBeat.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan (Jessica Fye) | $300 | $276 | 28 Oct 2026 | +39.9% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| Morgan Stanley (Jeffrey Hung) | $314 | $322 | 21 Oct 2026 | +46.4% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
| Needham (Ami Fadia) | $310 | $310 | 16 Oct 2026 | +44.6% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Citi (Geoff Meacham) | $325 | $325 | 15 Oct 2026 | +51.6% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Barclays (Etzer Darout) | $271 | $271 | 13 Oct 2026 | +26.4% | Overweight | ► Maintained |
| BofA (Jason Gerberry) | $313 | $307 | 9 Oct 2026 | +46.0% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| RBC (Leonid Timashev) | $296 | $299 | 8 Oct 2026 | +38.0% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Truist (Gregory Renza) | $286 | $281 | 7 Oct 2026 | +33.4% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Goldman Sachs (Andrea Newkirk) | $337 | — | 24 Sep 2026 | +57.2% | Buy (initiation) | ► New coverage |
| UBS (Ashwani Verma) | $337 | $315 | 11 Sep 2026 | +57.2% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
Implied return is measured against the $214.44 close on 2 Nov 2026. Sources: MarketBeat (30 Oct 2026) and Stockanalysis.com (21–27 Oct 2026). Every listed analyst rates the stock Buy or equivalent; the gap between targets and price is the widest in our recent coverage.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $214.44 |
| Consensus target | $292.05 |
| Median target | $300.00 |
| High target | $337.00 |
| Low target | $225.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +36.2% |
| Implied downside to low | +4.9% |
| Analysts contributing | 20 |
Consensus, high and low from MarketBeat (20 analysts); median from Stockanalysis.com (22 analysts, mean $294.27). Even the lowest target is above the price.
| $225 |
| $292 |
| $300 |
| $337 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1,046M | +16.5% | +2.1% | −$11.74 | 88.9% | $393M | −65.6% | Miss | −6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1,126M | +7.7% | +6.7% | $4.08 | 88.6% | $278M | 5.1% | Beat | −2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1,198M | +6.4% | n/c | ~$3.27 | 87.2% | $434M | 21.3% | Beat | +13.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1,069M | −10.8% | +19.1% | $4.43 | 87.5% | $518M | 31.5% | Beat | +7.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1,208M | +13.0% | +15.5% | $2.78 | 90.4% | $504M | 20.5% | Miss | +4.0% |
| Q3 2026 | $1,243M | +2.9% | +10.4% | −$7.48 | 91.1% | ~$513M | −33.3% | Miss (charge) | ~+0.6% (after hours) |
Margin is the GAAP operating margin; Q2 2025 and Q3 2026 are depressed by acquired IPR&D (about $905M in the first half of 2025, mainly Chimerix, and $754M for Actio). Jazz does not report adjusted EBITDA: Q2 2025 – Q2 2026 are the vendor's normalized EBITDA (Yahoo), and Q3 2026 is GAAP operating income plus amortization and the Actio charge (derived, ~). Gross margin is GAAP gross margin on total revenue (vendor before Q3 2026). "vs Est." is adjusted EPS against the vendor estimate. Q4 2024 revenue was not compiled (n/c).
Revenue has set a new quarterly high in Q3 2026 ($1.24B). The GAAP operating margin swings with acquisition charges: −66% and −33% in the two quarters with large IPR&D, 20–32% otherwise.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.82 | 1.86 | 4.46 | 1.5–3.0 target · inside; 2024 high before $1.0B of debt turned current |
| Quick ratio | 1.64 | 1.67 | 3.99 | ≥1.0 · passed |
| Cash ratio | 1.13 | 1.09 | 2.32 (cash only) | Cash and investments $2.86B |
Derived from the Q3 release and SEC XBRL balance sheets. Current liabilities include $1.02B of debt due within a year.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Therapeutics | 5.73 | +$3.80B | Very strong; no debt |
| Halozyme | 2.71 | −$1.95B | Adequate; convertible debt |
| Alkermes | 2.30 | −$0.92B | Adequate |
| Neurocrine | 1.87 | −$0.07B | Strong |
| JAZZ (Sep 26) | 1.82 | −$2.71B | Adequate; $885M undrawn revolver |
| Peer median | 2.51 | −$0.50B | — |
Peer figures from Stockanalysis.com (26–31 Oct 2026). Jazz net debt is $5.6B of debt principal less $2.86B of cash and investments.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 1.33 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Lower is safer · moderate |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.51 | <0.5 conservative · just inside |
| Interest coverage | 7.0× (TTM, ex-Actio) | n/m | n/d | >2.5 healthy · passed excluding the charge; 2.5× on GAAP TTM |
| Debt service coverage | 11.7× (TTM) | n/d | n/d | >1.25 healthy · EBITDA over net interest |
All ratios derived. Debt is carrying value from SEC XBRL ($5.57B at 30 Sep 2026). FY2025 coverage is not meaningful because of an operating loss after the Chimerix charge. Debt service coverage uses net interest only because maturities are refinanced (the term loan now runs to 2033).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 91.1% | 89.1% | 88.6% | 88.2% | n/d | ▲ |
| Operating margin | −33.3% | 9.0% | 5.1% | −10.1% | 17.6% | Charge-driven |
| Net margin | −38.9% | 4.4% | 22.3% | −8.3% | 13.8% | Charge-driven |
| EBITDA margin (ex-IPR&D) | ~41% | ~42% | 24.7% | n/d | n/d | ▲ |
| Return on assets | −4.0% (q) | 1.7% | n/d | −3.0% | n/d | Charge-driven |
| Return on equity | −11.5% (q) | 4.8% | n/d | −8.5% | n/d | Charge-driven |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 4.4% × 0.40 × 2.78 | — | — | — | Margin-led; moderate leverage |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios derived. Excluding the non-deductible $754M Actio charge, TTM net margin would be ~20%. Q3 2025 EBITDA margin uses the vendor's normalized EBITDA; Q3 2026 and TTM are derived. FY2024 returns are not shown because the 2023 balance sheet was not in the materials reviewed (n/d).
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halozyme | 76.3% | 56.8% | 24.9% | 63.2% | 173.7% | 1 of 5 |
| United Therapeutics | 86.1% | 44.5% | 41.6% | 47.4% | 19.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Neurocrine | 64.5% | 25.7% | 20.9% | 27.1% | 22.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Alkermes | 87.2% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 17.1% | 3.9% | 4 of 5 |
| JAZZ (TTM) | 89.1% | 9.0% | 4.4% | ~42% (ex-IPR&D) | 4.8% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 81.2% | 35.1% | 22.9% | 37.3% | 20.7% | — |
Peer ratios are TTM from Stockanalysis.com; peer EBITDA is vendor EBITDA. Rank is by GAAP operating margin, which puts Jazz last because of the Actio charge; on EBITDA excluding IPR&D it would rank third. Halozyme's ROE reflects a small equity base.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.40 | 0.36 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets ($11.8B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$1.63M | — | On ~2,890 employees (vendor) |
| Revenue growth (9M) | +14.7% | — | $3,520M against $3,070M |
| Oncology growth (Q3) | +34.5% | — | Modeyso, Zepzelca, Ziihera |
| Operating cash flow (9M) | $1.33B | $0.99B | +34% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | — | Buybacks instead ($500M programme) |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halozyme | 0.72 | ~$3.92M | 423 | n/c | 0.00% | 1 of 5 |
| Neurocrine | 0.73 | ~$1.35M | 2,500 | n/c | 0.00% | 2 of 5 |
| Alkermes | 0.50 | ~$0.81M | 2,050 | n/c | 0.00% | 3 of 5 |
| JAZZ | 0.40 | ~$1.63M | ~2,890 | n/m | 0.00% | 4 of 5 |
| United Therapeutics | 0.42 | ~$2.25M | 1,400 | n/c | 0.00% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 0.61 | ~$1.80M | ~1,725 | n/c | 0.00% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter reported revenue growth. Peer data from Stockanalysis.com; revenue per employee derived. Jazz EPS growth is not meaningful because of acquisition charges; peer EPS growth was not available (n/c).
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xywav net sales | $482.8M | $431.4M | +12% | ~425 net patient adds; ~17,550 active |
| Epidiolex/Epidyolex | $295.4M | $302.6M | −2% | Gross-to-net and inventory effects |
| Zepzelca | $104.4M | $79.3M | +32% | First-line maintenance with atezolizumab |
| Modeyso | $61.1M | $11.0M | n/m | ~725 patients since launch; incl. $14M partner stocking |
| Ziihera | $20.6M | $8.3M | +148% | First-line approval 25 Aug 2026 |
| Rylaze/Enrylaze | $106.3M | $99.9M | +6% | — |
| High-sodium oxybate royalties | $38.4M | $52.9M | −27% | Authorized-generic royalties declining |
From the Q3 2026 release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1) and the earnings call (Investing.com).
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 71× | GAAP EPS $3.00, depressed by IPR&D; 8.3× on adjusted EPS ex-Actio ($25.84) |
| P/E forward (vendor) | ~10.0× | Stockanalysis.com, at $205.70 |
| Price / book | 3.32× | Equity $4.19B |
| Price / sales TTM | 2.95× | Peer median 6.31× |
| EV / EBITDA | ~8.4× | EV ~$16.6B over TTM EBITDA ex-IPR&D ~$1.97B (derived) |
| Operating cash flow yield | ~12.7% | 9M $1.33B annualised over market cap (derived) |
| Short interest | ~8.4% | Of shares outstanding (vendor) |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAZZ | $214.44 | $13.92B | $4.72B | 2.95× | −53% |
| Halozyme | $128.95 | ~$14.6B | $1.66B | 8.82× | +40% |
| United Therapeutics | $596.13 | ~$25.6B | $3.15B | 8.12× | +29% |
| Alkermes | $44.89 | ~$7.5B | $1.67B | 4.50× | −29% |
| Neurocrine | $145.35 | ~$14.8B | $3.37B | 4.38× | −31% |
| Peer median | — | ~$14.7B | $2.41B | 6.31× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAZZ | $3.00 | 71× (8.3× adj.) | +10.4% | 0.18 | Cheapest on adjusted earnings |
| Neurocrine | $6.82 | 21.3× | +41.3% | 0.31 | Growth at a modest multiple |
| United Therapeutics | $27.99 | 21.3× | −2.0% | 3.21 | Cash-rich, slow growth |
| Halozyme | $3.38 | 38.1× | +47.5% | n/a | Royalty growth premium |
| Alkermes | $0.39 | 115.2× | +26.9% | n/a | Depressed GAAP earnings |
| Peer median | — | 29.7× | +34.1% | 1.76 | — |
Peer TTM EPS is price over the vendor P/E (derived); peer P/E is the vendor value scaled to the 2 Nov close. PEGs are the vendor's; the peer median uses the two available.
On every adjusted measure Jazz is the cheapest name in the group, at roughly half the peer sales multiple and a single-digit earnings multiple. That discount reflects lower growth than the peer set and the orexin threat to its largest franchise, not current profitability.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 10 Sep 2025 – 2 Nov 2026 (290 observations); the trace plots 146 points, every second row. As of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the 3 Nov 2026 report date. The reading predates the release. The Individual tab scales Volatility from −0.5 to +0.5.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.1178 | −0.1377 | 0.0633 | −0.3178 | 0.1248 | 99.0 | Crossed zero on 16 Oct for the first time in the window |
| Volatility | 0.2841 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4966 | 0.5000 | 78.3 | Elevated; easing from +0.34 on 30 Oct |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 13 sessions (16 Oct – 2 Nov). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not on a boundary. As of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 4.5% | 16 Oct – 2 Nov 2026 only |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 45.5% | Including Jul – Aug 2026 (31 sessions) |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 50.0% | The default state |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 0.0% | Not visited in the window |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile chop → Quiet range | 7 | The usual cycle |
| Quiet range → Volatile chop | 7 | And back |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 1 | 16 Oct 2026: Persistency turns positive |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Range had a median of +5.7% (67% positive, 142 observations) and from Volatile Chop +1.6% (57%, 126). The new Volatile Trend state has no complete 21-day history (thin sample, no conclusion drawn). Over the last 500 sessions the unconditional median was +2.4% (63% positive). As of 2 Nov 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. For 13 months Jazz alternated between a quiet range and choppy bursts with Persistency well below zero; since mid-October it has crossed into positive territory, so moves have started to extend rather than reverse. There is no history in this window for how that state has played out. These statistics describe 10 Sep 2025 – 2 Nov 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.001 | 0.0 | 0.160 | −0.203 | 0.244 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.010 | 0.0 | −0.105 | −0.178 | 0.227 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.021 | 0.0 | −0.240 | −0.276 | 0.310 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.024 | 0.1 | 0.211 | −0.253 | 0.286 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.036 | 0.1 | 0.102 | −0.255 | 0.141 | Stable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.262 | 6.9 | 0.088 | −0.609 | 0.143 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.013 | 0.0 | 0.113 | −0.286 | 0.489 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.032 | 0.1 | 0.013 | −0.196 | 0.395 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of JAZZ against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Window 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026, 499 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's rolling reading has flipped from as low as −0.61 to +0.09 now, so the usual sector link is currently absent. Drivers as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00003 | 0.023 | 0.7% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.17563 | −0.264 | 99.3% |
Jazz is an idiosyncratic, low-beta stock. The month will be decided by its own news and by competitors in sleep and oncology; neither an index hedge nor a biotech hedge would offset much of that risk.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against JAZZ daily returns, Feb 2025 – Nov 2026. On the latest reading (2 Nov) Market Driver 1 is +0.16 and Sector Driver 1 is +0.09. As of 2 Nov 2026.
JAZZ daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window ~2 years to 2 Nov 2026, ~499 overlapping days per group. Buckets under 30 days are marked thin (Bonds long Volatile Trend, 15 days, and Quiet Drift, 20; Energy Quiet Drift, 10; VIX Mid Volatile Trend, 19). The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Quiet Range | 94 | 18.8% | +29.8% | +101.2% | 34.2% | 2.96 | 60.6% | +12.43% | −5.54% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 102 | 20.4% | +25.2% | +74.1% | 29.0% | 2.56 | 53.9% | +7.40% | −4.29% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 149 | 29.9% | +39.2% | +75.0% | 37.2% | 2.01 | 51.7% | +18.71% | −6.64% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 154 | 30.9% | −13.4% | −20.9% | 37.9% | −0.55 | 48.1% | +6.86% | −9.35% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 105 | 21.0% | +29.6% | +86.3% | 29.1% | 2.97 | 52.4% | +7.40% | −4.29% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 124 | 24.8% | +36.3% | +87.7% | 33.6% | 2.61 | 58.1% | +12.43% | −6.64% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 106 | 21.2% | +22.9% | +63.2% | 39.1% | 1.62 | 52.8% | +18.71% | −3.96% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 164 | 32.9% | −9.7% | −14.5% | 37.8% | −0.38 | 48.8% | +6.86% | −9.35% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 33 | 6.6% | +20.2% | +306.9% | 33.4% | 9.2 | 57.6% | +7.40% | −2.84% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 206 | 41.3% | +75.7% | +99.3% | 37.7% | 2.64 | 54.4% | +18.71% | −6.64% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 224 | 44.9% | +6.4% | +7.2% | 34.4% | 0.21 | 51.8% | +6.86% | −9.35% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 36 | 7.2% | −12.8% | −61.5% | 27.0% | −2.28 | 44.4% | +3.85% | −3.96% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe among buckets of 30 days or more. Cumulative return is the compounded JAZZ return across all days spent in that regime (derived). Market regimes as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for JAZZ | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +39.2% | 2.01 | 3.51 | 43 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +22.9% | 1.62 | 3.35 | 43 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −12.8% | −2.28 | 11.48 | 37 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +18.2% | 0.76 | 4.92 | 116 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | +16.4% | 2.11 | 4.20 | 6 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +27.5% | 1.54 | 19.35 | 31 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +16.3% | 1.31 | 3.56 | 7 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | +17.2% | 1.16 | 4.28 | 7 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q2 Volatile Chop | +60.2% | 0.90 | 2.12 | 64 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +30.1% | 6.37 | 9.01 | 9 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +31.1% | 1.41 | 4.55 | 127 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −12.0% | −1.23 | 3.65 | 3 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | +7.3% | 0.67 | 2.73 | 4 |
| Bonds long | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | +9.7% | 11.44 | 13.74 | 3 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5. Best and worst are by Sharpe and include thin buckets; Bonds long's best (Volatile Trend, 15 days) and Energy's best (Quiet Drift, 10 days) are thin samples, and their spreads should be ignored. Market regimes as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind.
Regime-conditional history describes roughly two years to 2 Nov 2026, not the future. Four buckets hold fewer than 30 days and are marked thin, and a handful of company-specific days (+20.6% on 17 Nov 2025, +13.2% on 25 Feb 2026) dominate several totals. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 26 | Jazz announces Q3: record $1.2B revenue (+10%), raises full-year revenue guidance (company release) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | Jazz lifts 2026 outlook as revenue hits a record; Ziihera launch building (Investing.com call transcript) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | Guidance outlined as Ziihera launch builds toward $3–5B peak sales potential (Seeking Alpha headline) | Positive |
| 3 Nov 26 | Oncology momentum and new launches offset margin pressure; adjusted EPS misses on the Actio charge (StockStory) | Mixed |
| 28 Oct 26 | JPMorgan raises its target to $300; Weiss downgrades to Hold (MarketBeat) | Mixed |
| 26 Oct 26 | Jazz pre-announces a ~$755M Actio IPR&D charge for Q3 (SEC 8-K) | Negative |
| 8 Oct 26 | Shares fall as traders weigh a minor target cut and insider-sale filings (Quiver Quantitative) | Negative |
| 6 Oct 26 | Chief commercial officer to retire by mid-2027 (SEC 8-K) | Negative |
| 30 Sep 26 | FDA removes Zepzelca's second-line indication, as agreed with Jazz (company release) | Neutral |
| 15 Sep 26 | Jazz completes the Actio Biosciences acquisition (SEC 8-K) | Neutral |
| 25 Aug 26 | FDA approves Ziihera in first-line HER2+ gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (company release) | Positive |
| ~6 Aug 26 | FDA approves Takeda's Orzeyful (oveporexton) for narcolepsy type 1 (Pharmaceutical Technology) | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company releases and 8-Ks on EDGAR, Investing.com, Seeking Alpha (headline), StockStory via FinancialContent, MarketBeat, Quiver Quantitative, Pharmaceutical Technology, Clinical Trials Arena. The narrative has shifted from Ziihera approval (August) to deal costs and orexin competition (October) and back to commercial strength (now).
| Field | Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Jazz Pharmaceuticals public limited company | — |
| Exchange / IPO | Nasdaq: JAZZ · IPO 2007 | All peers on Nasdaq |
| Domicile | Ireland (headquarters Dublin) | Peers US-domiciled |
| Sector / industry | Health Care · Biotechnology and specialty pharmaceuticals (sleep, epilepsy, oncology) | Neurocrine the closest neuroscience peer |
| Market cap | $13.92B (64.91M shares × $214.44) | Middle of the group |
| Employees | ~2,890 (vendor) | The largest in the group |
| TTM revenue | $4.72B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | The largest in the group |
| Revenue model | Product sales: sleep (Xywav, Xyrem) 41% of Q3 revenue, epilepsy (Epidiolex) 24%, oncology (Zepzelca, Rylaze, Modeyso, Ziihera, Defitelio, Vyxeos) 31%; royalties 4% | Peers more concentrated |
| Key differentiators | Leading oxybate franchise; Epidiolex; growing oncology portfolio with Ziihera ($3–5B peak ambition); 91% gross margin | The most diversified portfolio in the group |
| CIK | 0001232524 | — |
| Website | jazzpharmaceuticals.com | — |
Jazz's third quarter was commercially strong: record revenue of $1.24B (+10%, ~3% above consensus), Xywav +12% with 425 net adds, oncology +34%, an early Ziihera launch and a second guidance raise. The $754M Actio charge, pre-announced, explains the reported loss. At about eight times underlying earnings, with every analyst at Buy and the lowest target above the price, the stock is cheap, its regime has just turned to trending and the market map is supportive. The discount rests on one risk the window may test: Takeda's orexin drug reaching narcolepsy patients. The view turns bullish if early Orzeyful uptake looks narrow and JAZZ closes back above $236. It turns bearish if the launch is broad and the stock breaks $200.