Close 2 Nov 2026
$134.90
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was a record $656M, up 10.7% and about 3% above consensus. Same-store RevPAR rose 7.9% on a three-point occupancy gain, adjusted FFO per share was $1.79 against roughly $1.60 expected, and full-year adjusted FFO guidance went to $9.16–9.43 a share from $8.90–9.26. Entertainment was the soft spot, with its EBITDAre guide cut by $3M. The stock closed at $134.90, 1.9% below its July high, and was indicated about 1.7% higher before the open. Over the next 10–30 days target increases and a trending regime support it; a price already at consensus targets and rate-sensitive REIT trading limit how far it can run.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $134.90 on 2 Nov, up 10.9% from $121.66 on 2 Oct, +42.6% YTD and 61% above the $83.82 low of 31 Oct 2025. It is 1.9% below the $137.46 intraday high of 29 Jul. Before the open on 3 Nov it was indicated near $137.20 (+1.7%) on thin volume. | Bullish |
| Revenue growth | Revenue $655.8M, +10.7%, against ~$636M expected (LSEG). Same-store hospitality revenue +8.0%; the rest came from Grande Lakes Orlando, owned from 1 Sep. TTM revenue $2.81B, +12.9%. Full-year same-store RevPAR guidance raised to +4.5–5.5% from +3.5–4.5%. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Same-store hospitality Adjusted EBITDAre margin 33.8%, +1.2 points; consolidated Adjusted EBITDAre $191.8M, +10.8%. Adjusted FFO per share $1.79, +9.8%, about 12% above the ~$1.60 consensus. Entertainment EBITDAre fell 3.7% and its full-year guide was cut $3M. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 14.5× the raised 2026 adjusted FFO midpoint ($9.29) and ~14.5× 2026 guided EBITDAre; P/S 3.30× against a 2.16× median for Host, Park, Apple Hospitality and Pebblebrook. The price is 1.3% above MarketBeat's $133.17 consensus target and 2.6% below the $138.50 median (Stockanalysis.com). | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | Same-store occupancy 70.3% (+3.0 points), ADR $266.63 (+3.3%), Total RevPAR $477.82 (+8.0%). Net definite group room nights +9.0%; bookings for future periods at a record ~$293 ADR; group attrition 15.0% from 16.3%; 2027–28 group pace improved during the quarter. | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Debt $4.66B and cash $348M at 30 Sep (net ~$4.31B, ~4.6× 2026 guided EBITDAre); $930M revolver undrawn. Grande Lakes ($1.38B) was paid for with ~5.9M new shares at $117 and $700M of 6.25% notes due 2035. TTM operating income covers interest ~2.1×. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend since 22 Oct (9 sessions), after three weeks of Quiet Drift. Persistency +0.082 (70th percentile); Volatility +0.472 (97th percentile), near the top of its scale. Not on a boundary. As of 2 Nov 2026 (1 trading day lag); it predates the release. | Bullish |
| Driver exposure | 82.7% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 −0.416 (R² 17.3%); Market Driver 1 ~0. One-year correlation 0.70 with Host, 0.66 with Park, 0.51 with the REIT index and 0.28 with the S&P 500 (beta 0.52). Hotel-REIT trading matters more than for most single names. As of 2 Nov 2026. | Mixed |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Little valuation headroom: the stock is at the consensus target before post-print revisions, so the move depends on how far targets rise. All three bond groups are in Volatile Trend, RHP's weakest bond regime historically; a rise in yields would weigh on REITs. Gross group bookings fell 2.1% and cancellation-fee revenue fell $2.8M. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Post-print target revisions (from 3 Nov, just before), the start of the holiday leisure season at the Gaylord resorts (management "cautiously optimistic"), Grande Lakes integration updates, October CPI and Treasury yields, and options expiry (20 Nov). The December FOMC (8–9 Dec) and Q4 results (late Feb 2027) are outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed, leaning positive. The quarter was clean: revenue, margins and adjusted FFO beat, RevPAR growth is well ahead of hotel peers, guidance went up and 2027 group pace improved. The regime is trending and historically that state has been followed by gains. Against that, the stock has run 11% in a month into the print, trades at a premium to peers and already sits at the average target, and the bond-market backdrop is the one RHP has handled worst. Composite 7.1 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (13 Nov – 3 Dec 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime, driver and market-regime readings as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date. The release came after the close on 2 Nov; the pre-market price is an indication, not a session close. Consensus: LSEG/IBES via Rallies.ai (revenue $636.3M) and Earnings Whispers (~$1.60 a share, revenue $622.9M). "Adjusted FFO" is the company's term, shortened to AFFO here.
Ryman delivered the best same-store growth among the large hotel REITs and raised guidance for the second straight quarter. The question for the month is not the business but the price: the stock went into the print near its high and at its average target, so it needs analysts to lift targets to keep going.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.25). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.00 + 1.10 + 1.35 + 0.84 + 0.63 + 0.75 + 0.40 = 7.1 (7.07). The composite sits in the upper half of the Mixed range. Growth and the regime point up; valuation holds it back because the stock reached the consensus target before the beat.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price at consensus target | Market | Upside depends on post-print revisions | Yes |
| Treasury yields | Macro | Bond groups trending; REIT multiples rate-sensitive | Possible |
| Hotel-REIT reversal | Market | 0.70 correlation with Host after a sector rally | Possible |
| Holiday leisure demand | Operating | First read on Q4 at the Gaylord resorts | Possible |
| Group-meeting cycle | Structural | Corporate budgets drive attrition and cancellations | Structural |
| Asset concentration | Structural | Eight resorts carry hospitality results | Structural |
| Leverage | Financial | ~$4.7B debt; ~2.1× operating-income interest coverage | Structural |
The risks inside the window are about price and rates, not operations: the business reported no new problem this quarter, but the stock and its sector have already moved a long way.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2 Nov 2026 | $656M | +3.1% | $0.58 (AFFO $1.79) | +11.9% (AFFO) | ~+1.7% (pre-market) |
| Q2 2026 | 6 Aug 2026 | $749M | n/c | $1.42 | +3.9% | −2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | 30 Apr 2026 | $665M | n/c | $1.03 | +27.5% | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | 23 Feb 2026 | $738M | n/c | ~$1.12 | +11.6% | −0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | 3 Nov 2025 | $592M | n/c | $0.53 | +23.3% | +1.7% |
| Q2 2025 | 4 Aug 2025 | $660M | n/c | $1.12 | +11.2% | +0.8% |
EPS is GAAP diluted. The EPS surprise for Q2 2025 – Q2 2026 is the vendor's (Yahoo), whose reported-EPS basis differs from GAAP; for Q3 2026 it is adjusted FFO per share against Earnings Whispers' ~$1.60. Revenue consensus is LSEG/IBES via Rallies.ai and was not compiled for earlier quarters (n/c). Q4 2025 figures are derived from annual less nine-month totals (~). Ryman reports after the close, so the reaction is the next session; Q3 2026 is the pre-market indication. 21-session moves after each reaction, oldest to newest: +7.6%, +1.9%, −10.7%, +8.3%, −0.1%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| RHP | 1/1 sourced | 100% (6/6) | RevPAR, segment EBITDAre, AFFO/share |
| Host Hotels | n/c | n/c | RevPAR, EBITDAre, FFO/share |
| Park Hotels | n/c | n/c | RevPAR, EBITDA, FFO/share |
| Apple Hospitality | n/c | n/c | RevPAR, EBITDAre |
| Pebblebrook | n/c | n/c | RevPAR, EBITDA, FFO/share |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | — |
Peer beat histories were not compiled (n/c). Ryman's record is a beat in every quarter on the vendor's basis; the size of the Q3 2026 AFFO beat (~12%) is the largest in the six quarters shown on a like-for-like basis we could source.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Same-store RevPAR / Total RevPAR | +4.5–5.5% | From +3.5–4.5% |
| Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAre | $933.5M (mid) | From $926.5M; same-store hospitality $745M from $735M |
| Entertainment Adjusted EBITDAre | $122M (mid) | From $125M |
| AFFO per diluted share | $9.16–9.43 | From $8.90–9.26; ~10% growth at the midpoint |
| Net income per diluted share | $4.08 (mid) | From $3.93 |
| Diluted shares (with OP units) | 70.7M (71.1M) | Unchanged |
| Next quarterly report | ~late Feb 2027 | Outside the window; 2027 guidance then |
This was the second guidance raise in a row and the biggest beat of the year. Ryman reports nothing else inside the window, so the reaction now depends on revisions and the macro backdrop.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2–3 Nov 2026 (print) | Company release, Rallies.ai, TokenPost, GuruFocus | Bullish | Record revenue, AFFO guide raised to a $9.29 midpoint; GuruFocus notes a "mixed segment outlook" because of Entertainment |
| 12–21 Oct 2026 | JPMorgan, Barclays, Zacks | Bullish | JPMorgan Overweight, $129 → $138; Barclays Overweight, $147 → $143; Zacks upgrade to Strong Buy |
| Sep 2026 | Raymond James, BMO, Bernstein, Truist, Citi | Bullish | Targets raised to $130–141 after the Grande Lakes deal; Bernstein the only Hold |
| Jul – Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo, Cantor, Jefferies, Barclays | Bullish | Targets $135–147 around Q2 and the acquisition |
| Consensus | 14 analysts | Mixed | MarketBeat "Buy" (13 Buy, 1 Strong Buy), mean $133.17, below the price; Stockanalysis.com "Strong Buy", mean $139.43, median $138.50 |
Sources: MarketBeat (21 Oct 2026) and Stockanalysis.com (25 Sep 2026), plus headlines from GuruFocus, TokenPost and Rallies.ai. Ratings are uniformly positive, but the mean target is at the price, so the consensus view is marked Mixed for the window. Post-print target changes had not been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Directors (13 Forms 4) | Dividend-equivalent RSUs | e.g. 1,285 | $0 | — | Credited on the $1.20 dividend; vest May 2027 (one form read in full) |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO | RSU vesting; shares withheld for tax | 7,478 (2,943 withheld) | $0 | — | Kept 4,535; holds 306,305. Not a sale |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Company | Equity offering for Grande Lakes | ~5.9M | $117.00 | ~$0.69B | Issued 13% below today's price |
| 15 Jul 2026 | Directors (12 Forms 4) | Dividend-equivalent RSUs (not reviewed) | — | — | — | Same quarterly pattern |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Colin Reed, Chairman | Open-market purchase | 8,993 | $92.16 | $0.83M | Bought near the 52-week low (MarketBeat) |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR (two read in full; the July and October director batches follow the dividend-equivalent pattern) and MarketBeat for the November 2025 purchase. There were no open-market insider sales in the last 12 months. Insider activity carries little signal for the window.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Feb 2027 | Ryman (expected) | Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance | No |
| 8–9 Dec 2026 | Federal Reserve | December FOMC decision | No (just after) |
| ~mid-Dec 2026 | Ryman (expected) | Fourth-quarter dividend declaration ($1.20 paid each quarter of 2026) | No |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Options market | Monthly expiry after the print | Yes |
| Mid-Nov – Dec 2026 | Ryman / Marriott | Holiday leisure season at the Gaylord resorts; management "cautiously optimistic" with early indicators positive | Yes |
| Mid-Nov 2026 | BLS | October CPI; Treasury yields drive REIT multiples | Yes |
| Nov 2026 | Sell-side | Post-print target revisions from a $133–139 mean | Yes |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Ryman | Q3 earnings call, 10 am ET (Grande Lakes integration, 2027 group pace) | No, just before |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Ryman release | Q3: record $656M revenue (+10.7%), AFFO $1.79, AFFO guide raised to $9.16–9.43 | No, sets the base |
| Mid-Oct 2026 | Ryman (OEG) | Category 10 Las Vegas opens | No, sets the base |
| 1 Sep 2026 | SEC 8-K | Grande Lakes Orlando acquisition completed (1,010-room JW Marriott, 582-room Ritz-Carlton); guidance updated | No, sets the base |
| 25 Aug 2026 | SEC 8-K | $700M of 6.25% senior notes due 2035 | No, sets the base |
| 10–12 Aug 2026 | SEC 8-K, 424B5 | ~$1.38B Grande Lakes agreement and ~5.9M-share offering at $117 | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 3 Nov 2026 report date (13 Nov – 3 Dec 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. The dividend timing is inferred from 2026's pattern (the Q3 dividend was declared on 15 Sep); the holiday-season timing reflects the Gaylord resorts' usual programming and is not a company date.
Just before: the 3 Nov call and the first target changes. In the window: the size of the target revisions, which decides whether a stock already at consensus has further to go; October CPI and the bond market, which set REIT multiples; and the first read on holiday leisure demand at the Gaylord resorts. 20 Nov: options expiry.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHP | $134.90 | $9.26B | $2.81B | 3.30× | +10.7% | Buy · $133.17 | Positive |
| Host Hotels (HST) | $25.57 | ~$17.2B | ~$6.24B | 2.75× | +3.4% | n/c | Neutral |
| Apple Hospitality (APLE) | $18.67 | ~$4.3B | ~$1.44B | 2.96× | +4.9% | n/c | Neutral |
| Park Hotels (PK) | $16.84 | ~$3.3B | ~$2.55B | 1.29× | +1.2% | n/c | Neutral |
| Pebblebrook (PEB) | $22.00 | ~$2.4B | ~$1.50B | 1.57× | +1.0% | n/c | Neutral |
| Peer median | — | ~$3.8B | ~$2.03B | 2.16× | +2.3% | — | — |
Prices are at the 2 Nov 2026 close. RHP TTM revenue is Q4 2025 – Q3 2026 from SEC XBRL and the Q3 release; market cap uses 68.65M shares (vendor). Peer market caps and P/S are Stockanalysis.com values; peer TTM revenue is market cap over P/S (derived, ~). Latest-quarter growth is from SEC XBRL: Pebblebrook to Sep 2026; Host, Park and Apple to Jun 2026 (their Q3 figures were not yet in XBRL). Peer consensus views were not compiled (n/c); RHP consensus is MarketBeat.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan (Daniel Politzer) | $138 | $129 | 21 Oct 2026 | +2.3% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| Barclays (Richard Hightower) | $143 | $147 | 13 Oct 2026 | +6.0% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
| Raymond James (RJ Milligan) | $130 | $125 | 28 Sep 2026 | −3.6% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| BMO Capital | $137 | $137 | 25 Sep 2026 | +1.6% | Outperform | ► Maintained |
| Bernstein | — | — | 25 Sep 2026 | — | Hold | ► Maintained |
| Truist (Patrick Scholes) | $141 | $132 | 10 Sep 2026 | +4.5% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Citi (Nick Joseph) | $135 | $125 | 9 Sep 2026 | +0.1% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Jefferies | $145 | $145 | 12 Aug 2026 | +7.5% | Buy | ► Reiterated |
| Cantor Fitzgerald (Jay Kornreich) | $135 | $124 | 11 Aug 2026 | +0.1% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| Wells Fargo (James Feldman) | $136 | $126 | 23 Jul 2026 | +0.8% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
Implied return is measured against the $134.90 close on 2 Nov 2026. Sources: MarketBeat (21 Oct 2026) and Stockanalysis.com (25 Sep 2026). Nine of ten listed analysts rate the stock Buy or equivalent, but seven of nine stated targets are within 5% of the price; the stock has caught up with the Street.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $134.90 |
| Consensus target | $133.17 |
| Median target | $138.50 |
| High target | $152.00 |
| Low target | $112.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | −1.3% |
| Implied downside to low | −17.0% |
| Analysts contributing | 14 |
Consensus and low (Morgan Stanley, $112, May 2026) from MarketBeat (14 analysts); median and high from Stockanalysis.com (14 analysts, mean $139.43). The two sources disagree by ~$6 on the mean because of different update dates.
| $112 |
| $133 |
| $139 |
| $152 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $660M | +12.3% | +7.5% | $1.12 | n/d | n/c | 21.1% | Beat | +0.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $592M | −10.2% | +7.7% | $0.53 | n/d | $173M | 15.0% | Beat | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $738M | +24.5% | +13.9% | ~$1.12 | n/d | n/c | 19.4% | Beat | −0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $665M | −9.9% | +13.2% | $1.03 | n/d | n/c | 20.7% | Beat | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $749M | +12.7% | +13.6% | $1.42 | n/d | n/c | 23.3% | Beat | −2.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $656M | −12.4% | +10.7% | $0.58 | n/d | $192M | 14.4% | Beat | ~+1.7% (pre-market) |
Margin is the GAAP operating margin. Adj. EBITDA is the company's Adjusted EBITDAre, compiled for the two third quarters only (29.2% of revenue in both); other quarters were not compiled (n/c). Ryman does not report a gross margin (n/d). Q4 2025 and Q4 2024 figures are derived from annual less nine-month totals. The third quarter is seasonally the weakest for Ryman's group-heavy resorts, which explains the QoQ swings. "vs Est." uses the vendor EPS basis for Q2 2025 – Q2 2026 and AFFO for Q3 2026.
Revenue follows a clear seasonal pattern, with every quarter of 2026 up 10–14% on the year. The operating margin dips each third quarter (15.0% in 2025, 14.4% in 2026) and peaks in the second; Q3 2026 also absorbed one month of Grande Lakes depreciation and deal costs.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.31 (vendor) | n/d | n/d | 1.5–3.0 target · below, typical for a REIT with an unclassified balance sheet |
| Quick ratio | n/d | n/d | n/d | Not meaningful; Ryman does not classify current assets |
| Cash ratio | n/d | n/d | n/d | Unrestricted cash $348M (Sep 26), $471M (Dec 25), $478M (Dec 24) |
Ryman's balance sheet is unclassified, so standard liquidity ratios are not reported (n/d). Available liquidity at 30 Sep 2026 was ~$1.28B: $348M of unrestricted cash plus the $930M undrawn revolver.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Hospitality | n/c | ~−$1.59B | Strong; Debt/EBITDA 3.55× |
| Pebblebrook | n/c | ~−$2.19B | Stretched; Debt/EBITDA 7.03× |
| Host Hotels | n/c | ~−$3.70B | Strong; Debt/EBITDA 3.18× |
| Park Hotels | n/c | ~−$3.84B | Stretched; Debt/EBITDA 6.02× |
| RHP (Sep 26) | 1.31 | −$4.31B | Adequate; $930M undrawn revolver; ~4.6× net |
| Peer median | n/c | ~−$2.95B | — |
Peer net cash is enterprise value less market cap from Stockanalysis.com (derived, ~; it includes preferred stock and minority interests). Peer Debt/EBITDA is the vendor's gross figure; RHP's is net debt over 2026 guided Adjusted EBITDAre.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | ~3.3 | 5.30 | 6.15 | Lower is safer · high, but falling after the equity raise |
| Debt-to-assets | ~0.61 | 0.64 | 0.65 | <0.5 conservative · above |
| Interest coverage | 2.1× (TTM) | 2.0× | n/d | >2.5 healthy · below on operating income; 3.5× on 2026 guided EBITDAre |
| Debt service coverage | 3.5× (2026 guide) | n/d | n/d | >1.25 healthy · EBITDAre over guided interest of ~$266M |
All ratios derived. Debt is the carrying value from SEC XBRL and the Q3 release ($4.66B at 30 Sep 2026). September equity (~$1.4B) and assets (~$7.6B) are estimated from the June balance sheet plus the August offering and the Grande Lakes purchase (~). Book equity is small relative to assets because of decades of depreciation and distributions, which inflates debt-to-equity for every hotel REIT. Q3 2026 interest is estimated from guidance.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | n/d | 35.2% (vendor) | n/d | n/d | n/d | — |
| Operating margin | 14.4% | 19.6% | 15.0% | 18.9% | 21.0% | Stable |
| Net margin | 6.1% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 11.6% | Stable |
| Adjusted EBITDAre margin | 29.2% | 30.6% (vendor) | 29.2% | n/d | n/d | Flat |
| Return on assets | 0.5% (q) | ~4.0% | n/d | 4.3% | n/d | Stable |
| Return on equity | n/m | 22.6% (vendor) | n/d | 37.5% | n/d | Equity base rising |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 9.8% × 0.41 × ~6.4 | — | — | — | Leverage-led |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. Ratios derived from SEC XBRL and the Q3 release unless marked vendor (Stockanalysis.com). Net margin uses consolidated net income. FY2025 returns use average 2025 assets and equity. ROE is high mainly because book equity is small, as the DuPont split shows.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHP (TTM) | 35.2% | 19.6% | 9.8% | 30.6% | 22.6% | 1 of 5 |
| Apple Hospitality | n/c | 17.8% | 12.2% | ~31.5% | 5.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Host Hotels | n/c | 14.6% | 16.5% | ~27.2% | 15.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Park Hotels | n/c | 14.3% | −6.4% | ~25.1% | −4.9% | 4 of 5 |
| Pebblebrook | n/c | 7.5% | −3.1% | ~21.9% | −1.6% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | n/c | 14.5% | 4.6% | ~26.2% | 2.0% | — |
Peer ratios are TTM from Stockanalysis.com; peer EBITDA margin is the vendor's EV over EV/EBITDA, divided by derived TTM revenue (~). Rank is by GAAP operating margin. Peer gross margins were not compiled (n/c).
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | ~0.41 | 0.45 (FY25) | Revenue over average total assets; diluted by the Grande Lakes purchase |
| Same-store Total RevPAR | $477.82 | $442.58 | +8.0%; spend outside the room matters as much as rooms |
| Revenue growth (TTM) | +12.9% | — | $2,807M against $2,487M |
| AFFO per share growth (2026 guide) | ~+10% | — | Midpoint $9.29 |
| Operating cash flow (FY25) | $591M | $577M (FY24) | ~2.4× FY25 net income |
| Dividend yield | 3.56% | — | $4.80 annualised; ~52% of guided AFFO |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHP | ~0.41 | n/c | n/c | +9.4% (Q3) | 3.56% | 1 of 5 |
| Apple Hospitality | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | 5.32% | 2 of 5 |
| Host Hotels | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | 3.84% | 3 of 5 |
| Park Hotels | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | 6.12% | 4 of 5 |
| Pebblebrook | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | 0.19% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | n/c | n/c | n/c | n/c | 4.58% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter reported revenue growth. Hotel REITs have few direct employees because Marriott and other operators run the hotels, so revenue per employee is not meaningful (n/c). Dividend yields from Stockanalysis.com; RHP's is derived at the close.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same-store RevPAR | $187.49 | $173.71 | +7.9% | Occupancy 70.3% vs 67.3%; ADR $266.63 vs $258.04 |
| Hospitality Adjusted EBITDAre | $178.3M | $156.3M | +14.0% | Margin 31.7% (+0.5 points); includes one month of Grande Lakes |
| Same-store hospitality Adj. EBITDAre | $169.5M | $151.4M | +12.0% | Margin 33.8% (+1.2 points) |
| Entertainment revenue | $93.0M | $91.6M | +1.5% | Seasonally light quarter |
| Entertainment Adj. EBITDAre | $23.8M | $24.7M | −3.7% | Margin 25.6% (−1.4 points); Category 10 Las Vegas opened mid-October |
| Net definite room nights booked | 501,109 | ~459,700 | +9.0% | Gross 653,958 (−2.1%); record future ADR ~$293 |
| Group attrition | 15.0% | 16.3% | −1.3 pts | Of contracted block; cancellations 8,549 vs 22,920 |
From the Q3 2026 release (GlobeNewswire, 2 Nov 2026). The Q3 2025 net room-night figure is derived from the stated growth rate (~).
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 32.5× | GAAP EPS $4.15; depreciation-heavy REIT earnings make P/E less useful |
| P/AFFO (2026 guide) | 14.5× | On the $9.29 midpoint; the main REIT multiple |
| Price / book | ~6.7× | On estimated September equity (~$1.4B) |
| Price / sales TTM | 3.30× | Peer median 2.16× |
| EV / EBITDAre | ~14.5× | EV ~$13.6B over 2026 guided $933.5M; ~13.5× on a full year of Grande Lakes (derived) |
| Dividend yield | 3.56% | $1.20 quarterly |
| Short interest | 4.94% | Of shares outstanding (vendor) |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHP | $134.90 | $9.26B | $2.81B | 3.30× | +53% |
| Apple Hospitality | $18.67 | ~$4.3B | ~$1.44B | 2.96× | +37% |
| Host Hotels | $25.57 | ~$17.2B | ~$6.24B | 2.75× | +27% |
| Pebblebrook | $22.00 | ~$2.4B | ~$1.50B | 1.57× | −27% |
| Park Hotels | $16.84 | ~$3.3B | ~$2.55B | 1.29× | −40% |
| Peer median | — | ~$3.8B | ~$2.03B | 2.16× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHP | $4.15 | 32.5× | +10.7% | ~3.3 (on AFFO growth) | Growth premium; EV/EBITDA 14.5× |
| Host Hotels | $1.54 | 16.6× | +3.4% | n/a | Large, lowest leverage; EV/EBITDA 12.3× |
| Apple Hospitality | $0.76 | 24.5× | +4.9% | n/a | Select-service, high yield; EV/EBITDA 12.9× |
| Park Hotels | n/m | n/m | +1.2% | n/a | Loss-making; EV/EBITDA 11.2× |
| Pebblebrook | n/m | n/m | +1.0% | n/a | Loss-making; EV/EBITDA 13.9× |
| Peer median | — | 20.6× | +2.3% | n/a | EV/EBITDA 12.6× |
Peer TTM EPS is price over the vendor P/E (derived); Park and Pebblebrook have negative TTM earnings (n/m). Peer EV/EBITDA is the vendor's TTM figure; RHP's uses 2026 guidance (16.3× on the vendor's TTM basis). RHP's PEG divides P/AFFO by guided AFFO growth (~10%). Peer medians use available values.
Ryman is the most expensive name in the group on sales and EBITDA, and it earns that premium with the fastest growth and the highest operating margin. The premium is fair but full: at 14.5× AFFO the stock needs continued beats to rerate further.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 10 Sep 2025 – 2 Nov 2026 (290 observations); the trace plots 145 points, every second row. As of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the 3 Nov 2026 report date. The reading predates the release. The Individual tab scales Volatility from −0.5 to +0.5.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.0822 | 0.0507 | 0.0742 | −0.0757 | 0.2007 | 70.2 | Mildly trending; positive for most of the window |
| Volatility | 0.4717 | 0.0232 | 0.2936 | −0.4966 | 0.5000 | 96.8 | Near the top of the scale |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 9 sessions (22 Oct – 2 Nov). Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not on a boundary. As of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 38.5% | The most common state; the 2026 rally |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 14.7% | Brief |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 32.5% | Mostly late 2025 |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 14.3% | Pauses between trending legs |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet drift → Volatile trend | 5 | Most recent 22 Oct 2026 |
| Volatile trend → Quiet drift | 4 | The usual pause |
| Volatile trend → Volatile chop | 1 | The only break into chop from trend |
Using the Individual tab over its full history, RHP's 21-day forward return from Volatile Trend days had a median of +8.3% and was positive 90% of the time (88 observations); from Quiet Drift +5.7% (61%, 23); Quiet Range +1.2% (54%, 109); Volatile Chop −2.0% (33%, 48). Over the last ~500 sessions the unconditional median was +0.4% (53% positive). The trend figures are flattered by the 2026 rally and overlapping windows. As of 2 Nov 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Ryman has spent most of the past year with Persistency above zero, alternating between trending legs and quiet pauses, and has rarely chopped. The current leg began on 22 Oct with Volatility near its ceiling. These statistics describe 10 Sep 2025 – 2 Nov 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.048 | 0.2 | 0.129 | −0.329 | 0.135 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.027 | 0.1 | −0.060 | −0.255 | 0.312 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.056 | 0.3 | 0.069 | −0.320 | 0.404 | Variable | Positive |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.033 | 0.1 | −0.101 | −0.346 | 0.251 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.053 | 0.3 | −0.142 | −0.344 | 0.191 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.416 | 17.3 | −0.223 | −0.601 | 0.060 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.021 | 0.0 | −0.218 | −0.415 | 0.368 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.009 | 0.0 | −0.169 | −0.341 | 0.328 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of RHP against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Window 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026, 499 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's rolling reading (−0.22) is weaker than its two-year average (−0.42), so the sector link has loosened recently. Drivers as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | −0.00001 | −0.011 | 0.1% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.20510 | −0.415 | 99.9% |
Most of Ryman's risk is its own, but the systematic part is almost entirely sector. A hotel-REIT or rate-driven move would carry RHP with it; a broad equity hedge would not offset much.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against RHP daily returns, Feb 2025 – Nov 2026. On the latest reading (2 Nov) Market Driver 1 is +0.13 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.22. As of 2 Nov 2026.
RHP daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window ~2 years to 2 Nov 2026, ~499 overlapping days per group. Buckets under 30 days are marked thin (Bonds long Volatile Trend, 15 days, and Quiet Drift, 20; Energy Quiet Drift, 10; VIX Mid Volatile Trend, 19). The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 102 | 20.4% | +18.4% | +51.9% | 22.9% | 2.27 | 48.0% | +4.25% | −3.32% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 149 | 29.9% | +16.2% | +28.9% | 23.1% | 1.25 | 51.0% | +4.36% | −3.34% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 154 | 30.9% | +8.4% | +14.1% | 30.5% | 0.46 | 49.4% | +10.12% | −8.81% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 94 | 18.8% | −17.0% | −39.2% | 26.9% | −1.46 | 45.7% | +4.28% | −5.92% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 105 | 21.0% | +19.6% | +53.8% | 24.3% | 2.21 | 48.6% | +4.36% | −3.32% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 164 | 32.9% | +13.9% | +22.1% | 30.1% | 0.74 | 50.0% | +10.12% | −8.81% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 106 | 21.2% | +2.8% | +6.9% | 21.5% | 0.32 | 51.9% | +4.33% | −2.70% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 124 | 24.8% | −11.6% | −22.2% | 26.2% | −0.85 | 45.2% | +4.28% | −5.92% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 33 | 6.6% | +18.8% | +273.2% | 22.2% | 12.31 | 51.5% | +3.48% | −1.69% |
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 36 | 7.2% | +10.6% | +102.2% | 16.9% | 6.06 | 61.1% | +2.40% | −2.11% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 224 | 44.9% | +7.5% | +8.4% | 27.8% | 0.3 | 48.2% | +10.12% | −4.43% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 206 | 41.3% | −12.3% | −14.8% | 26.3% | −0.56 | 47.1% | +4.33% | −8.81% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe among buckets of 30 days or more. Cumulative return is the compounded RHP return across all days spent in that regime (derived). Global market's Volatile Trend and Quiet Drift buckets cover only 33 and 36 days, so their very high annualised figures should be read with care. Market regimes as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for RHP | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +16.2% | 1.25 | 3.73 | 43 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +2.8% | 0.32 | 3.06 | 43 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +10.6% | 6.06 | 12.87 | 37 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +13.5% | 0.72 | 6.17 | 116 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +20.0% | 3.42 | 4.20 | 6 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | +5.2% | 0.38 | 4.86 | 31 |
| Utilities | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | −3.4% | −0.35 | 5.11 | 7 |
| Europe | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −10.4% | −0.67 | 3.83 | 7 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +50.3% | 1.08 | 2.72 | 64 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +9.6% | 3.27 | 3.74 | 9 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +34.3% | 2.51 | 5.33 | 127 |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −10.2% | −1.82 | 3.86 | 3 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | −3.8% | −0.41 | 1.34 | 4 |
| Bonds long | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −2.1% | −1.73 | 3.46 | 3 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5. Best and worst are by Sharpe and include thin buckets; Bonds long's worst (Quiet Drift, 20 days), Energy's worst (Quiet Drift, 10 days) and VIX Mid's best (Volatile Trend, 19 days) are thin samples. Market regimes as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind.
Regime-conditional history describes roughly two years to 2 Nov 2026, not the future. Four buckets hold fewer than 30 days and are marked thin, and a handful of days (+10.7% on 9 Apr 2025, −8.4% on 3 Apr 2025) dominate several totals. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 2 Nov 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 26 | Ryman reports Q3 2026 results: record revenue, same-store RevPAR +7.9%, guidance raised (company release) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | Q3 revenue of $655.8M beats the $636.3M IBES estimate on group and leisure demand (Rallies.ai) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | Ryman raises 2026 adjusted FFO guidance midpoint to $9.29 (TokenPost) | Positive |
| 2 Nov 26 | RHP raises AFFO guidance amid mixed segment outlook (GuruFocus headline) | Mixed |
| 2 Nov 26 | A 1,592-room Orlando resort joins Ryman as it posts record third-quarter revenue (StockTitan) | Positive |
| 21 Oct 26 | JPMorgan raises its target to $138 from $129, Overweight (MarketBeat) | Positive |
| 13 Oct 26 | Barclays trims its target to $143 from $147, Overweight (MarketBeat) | Mixed |
| 12 Oct 26 | Zacks upgrades to Strong Buy from Hold (MarketBeat) | Positive |
| 15 Sep 26 | Ryman declares a $1.20 quarterly dividend (company release) | Neutral |
| 1 Sep 26 | Ryman completes the Grande Lakes Orlando acquisition and updates guidance (SEC 8-K) | Neutral |
| 10–12 Aug 26 | Ryman agrees to buy Grande Lakes for ~$1.38B and sells ~5.9M shares at $117 (SEC 8-K, 424B5) | Mixed |
| 6 Aug 26 | Q2 results beat and guidance raised; shares −2.7% the next day (company release, Earnings Whispers) | Mixed |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company releases and 8-Ks on EDGAR, GlobeNewswire, Rallies.ai, TokenPost, GuruFocus (headline), StockTitan, MarketBeat, Earnings Whispers. The narrative has moved from dilution and deal price in August to execution and upgrades now.
| Field | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | — |
| Exchange / listing | NYSE: RHP · REIT since 2013 (formerly Gaylord Entertainment) | Peers listed on NYSE and Nasdaq |
| Domicile | Delaware; headquarters Nashville, Tennessee | All US |
| Sector / industry | Real Estate · Hotel and resort REIT focused on large group-oriented convention resorts | Host the closest upper-upscale peer |
| Market cap | $9.26B (68.65M shares × $134.90) | Second largest in the group |
| Portfolio | Five Gaylord resorts (Opryland, Palms, Texan, National, Rockies), JW Marriott Desert Ridge and, since Sep 2026, JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton Orlando Grande Lakes: 13,956 rooms, all Marriott-managed | The fewest, largest assets in the group |
| TTM revenue | $2.81B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Second largest in the group |
| Revenue model | Hospitality (rooms, food and beverage, events) ~86% of Q3 revenue; Entertainment (Opry Entertainment Group: Grand Ole Opry, Ryman Auditorium, Ole Red, Category 10) ~14% | Peers pure hotel owners |
| Key differentiators | Convention scale with meeting space and spend outside the room; long group booking horizon; majority stake in a live-entertainment business | Most group-weighted portfolio in the group |
| CIK | 0001040829 | — |
| Website | rymanhp.com | — |
Ryman's third quarter was a clean beat and raise: record revenue of $656M (+10.7%, ~3% above consensus), same-store RevPAR +7.9%, AFFO $1.79 against ~$1.60, and a full-year AFFO midpoint lifted to $9.29. Group fundamentals improved, the regime is trending, and most market groups are in states that have favoured RHP. What keeps the call Mixed is the price: the stock rose 11% into the print, trades at a premium to every hotel peer and already sits at the average analyst target, while all three bond groups are in the state that has historically been worst for it. The view turns bullish if targets move into the mid-$140s and RHP closes above the $137.46 July high. It turns bearish if yields rise and the stock breaks $125.