FTS · NYSE / TSX · Utilities · Regulated electric & gas

Fortis delivered the plan the market already priced; Arizona decides the month

A C$32.2bn five-year plan, 7.5% rate-base growth and a 4% dividend raise confirm the thesis, but the stock reached a 52-week high before the release and sits above every converted analyst consensus measure. Over the next 10–30 days the open question is the Arizona Corporation Commission vote on Tucson Electric Power rates, with the share price already at the top of its one-year volatility range.

Research desk

2026-11-04 · Data as of 3 Nov 2026 close · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · priced for the plan

Close 3 Nov 2026

$59.72

30 day

▲ 13.6%

Year to date

▲ 15.0%

From 52W high

▼ 0.8%

Ann. volatility

14.8%

Regime as of

2 Nov

Market cap

US$30.8B

52W range

$49.60–60.19

TTM revenue

C$12.53B

Rev growth

+4.1%

P/S TTM

3.4x^e

P/E TTM

23.8x^e

Report date

3 Nov 2026

TTM EPS

C$3.52

EV/EBITDA

n/r

Rate base 2026

C$45.3B

5-yr capex plan

C$32.2B

Net cash

−C$33.9B

Employees

9,900

Next catalyst

ACC · Nov

FTS · 30-day price (US$)

FTS · 1-year price (US$)

Executive summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	US$59.72 on 3 Nov, +13.6% over 30 days and +15.0% YTD; release-day close +0.7% with a new 52-week high of US$60.19 intraday.	Mixed
Revenue growth	TTM revenue C$12,528M, +4.1% YoY; Q3 C$3,115M vs C$2,938M (+6.0%). Regulated, rate-base driven.	Neutral
Profitability	Q3 EPS C$0.92 vs adjusted C$0.87 (+5.7%); YTD adjusted C$2.69 vs C$2.63 (+2.3%). Net margin 15.2% in Q3.	Bullish
Valuation vs peers	~23.8x reported TTM EPS^e; price sits +4.8% vs mean of converted targets (US$56.98)^e.	Bearish
Platform KPIs	2027–31 capex C$32.2B (+C$3.4B), rate base C$45.3B → C$63.9B (7.5% CAGR); dividend +4% to C$0.665, 4–6% guide to 2031.	Bullish
Balance sheet	A- (S&P) stable; debt 52.8% of capital; US$1.0B junior subordinated notes and ~C$260M ATM equity in Q3; ATM to be re-established early 2027.	Mixed
Regime state	Q1 Volatile trend, 5 sessions; Persistency 0.059 (neutral band, 100th pctile), Volatility 0.50 (100th pctile, trailing-year high). As of 2 Nov 2026.	Mixed
Driver exposure	99.1% idiosyncratic; Market Driver 1 corr 0.061, Sector Driver 1 0.076 over 499 sessions. Company news decides the window.	Neutral
Key risk (next 10–30 days)	ACC final order on TEP rate case (recommended 9.65% ROE, 55.5% equity) could be trimmed; with the stock at highs, a negative surprise has asymmetric downside.	Bearish
Catalysts in window	ACC vote on TEP rates (expected Nov 2026); dividend record date 17 Nov; new TEP rates targeted 1 Dec; post-plan analyst target revisions.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days)	Mixed. Good news is largely in the price; the Arizona order is the swing factor. Mixed

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge. ^e = derived (see colophon).

Fortis did exactly what it said it would: a larger plan, faster rate-base growth and another dividend raise. But the stock rose 13.6% in the 30 sessions before the release and closed at a 52-week high, so the plan was largely anticipated. Over the next month the stock is driven almost entirely by company-specific news, and the main event is the Arizona rate order.

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.

Bull case

Plan upside is real and front-loaded. 2026 capex lifted to C$6.0B from C$5.6B; 2027–31 at C$32.2B, the largest in Fortis history, with 47% in transmission.

Beyond-plan pipeline is large. US$2.9–3.4B more MISO tranche 2.1 at ITC, up to US$1.6B base-case IRP at UNS plus a US$1.5B high-load scenario, C$2–4B Tilbury Phase 2.

Arizona order looks constructive. Recommended 9.65% ROE, 55.5% equity, formula rates ±50bp and post-test-year adjustments; approval this month would remove the main regulatory lag at UNS.

Earnings momentum improving. Q3 adjusted EPS +5.7% after a flat first half; UNS earnings +C$16M in the quarter on retail sales growth.

Dividend support into record date. C$0.665 quarterly (≈3.2% yield^e), record 17 Nov; 53 consecutive years of increases.

Low market linkage. 99.1% of daily variance idiosyncratic — a broad equity sell-off has historically barely touched FTS.

Neutral case

Growth is steady, not accelerating per share. YTD adjusted EPS +2.3%; dispositions (FortisTCI, Belize) cost C$0.05 YTD and share count rose 1.6%.

Guidance unchanged at the dividend level. 4–6% dividend growth guide extended, not raised; the step-up is in rate base, not in payout.

Regime says range-bound follow-through. After Utilities Volatile-trend days, FTS averaged +0.1% over the next 21 sessions (n=96).

Targets cluster around the price. Converted target mean US$56.98, median US$57.86^e vs US$59.72 close.

Release-day reaction muted. +0.7% on 3 Nov after +13.6% over 30 sessions — investors confirmed rather than re-rated.

Bear case

Valuation stretched for a regulated utility. ~23.8x reported TTM EPS^e; at highs with no consensus upside on converted targets.

Arizona can disappoint. ACC commissioners can amend an ALJ recommendation; Residential Utility Consumer Office challenge to formula rates still pending in court.

Volatility at a one-year extreme. Volatility reading 0.50, the trailing-year maximum; previous peaks (Mar 2026, Jul 2026) were followed by Quiet-range retracements.

Dilution continues. ~C$260M ATM equity in Q3 at C$77.17; DRIP-funded equity and a new ATM programme in early 2027.

Rate sensitivity. 52.8% debt; new US$ junior subordinated notes at 6.63–6.88% show funding costs higher than the embedded book.

Bearish sell-side voices. Wolfe Underperform (US$50), Jefferies cut to C$70 from C$84, Barclays cut to US$56.

The plan is better than the last one; the price already says so.

Composite assessment

Over the next 10–30 days FTS is a company-specific trade on the Arizona rate order: a clean approval near the 9.65% ROE recommendation keeps the neutral case intact at the highs, while any cut to ROE or equity ratio removes the only fresh catalyst from a stock already trading above its converted target mean.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue growth

5.5

TTM +4.1%; regulated, rate-base driven

Profitability

7.0

Net margin 15.2% Q3; adj. EPS +5.7%

Valuation

5.0

~23.8x P/E^e; price above target mean

Earnings quality

8.0

No 2026 adjustments; regulated cash flows; OCF +16% YTD

Balance sheet

6.5

A- stable; 52.8% debt; ongoing equity issuance

Competitive position

8.0

Franchise monopolies; ITC best placed in MISO

Structural risk

6.5

Regulation, FX, rates; RUCO court challenge

Regime alignment

5.0

Volatile trend at vol max; flat 21d history after

Driver independence

9.5

99.1% idiosyncratic

Composite

6.2

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 · Risk 10 · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution scored from earnings quality; risk from structural risk. Balance sheet and competitive position are shown but carry no separate weight.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

Capital plan up C$3.4B. C$32.2B for 2027–31 versus C$28.8B prior plan.

Rate-base growth 7.5% CAGR to C$63.9B by 2031; 7.7% over three years.

Q3 adjusted EPS +5.7% (C$0.92 vs C$0.87).

Operating cash flow +C$489M YTD (C$3,533M vs C$3,044M).

Market independence: systematic share 0.9% of variance.

Loses

Price above targets: close US$59.72 vs converted mean US$56.98^e.

YTD adjusted EPS only +2.3% after dispositions and dilution.

Share count +1.6% YoY (513.1M vs 504.5M weighted).

UNS wholesale margin weighed on YTD earnings (−C$5M ex-FX).

Volatility at trailing-year maximum (0.50, 100th pctile).

Risk factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Arizona rate order. The ACC vote on TEP is expected in November with rates targeted for 1 December. Commissioners can lower the recommended 9.65% ROE or 55.5% equity ratio; UNS earned C$390M YTD, so the order sets the earnings base for Fortis’ second-largest business.

Positioning after a 13.6% run. The stock reached a 52-week high ahead of the release and the reaction was +0.7%. With the catalyst delivered, a “sell the news” drift is the most likely way the price falls inside the window.

Sell-side target revisions. Converted targets average below the price; post-plan revisions in the coming days will either close that gap upward or reinforce it as a ceiling.

Rates and the US$/C$ exchange rate. A 10-year yield rise hits utility multiples directly; the US$ price also moves with CAD. FX also moves the capex plan by ~C$0.8B per five cents.

Structural context

Formula-rate legal challenge. The Residential Utility Consumer Office challenge to ACC formula-rate authority is proceeding in court; timing is unknown and unlikely to resolve within a month.

Competitive transmission. ITC won MARS but lost EASL; the FERC complaint on MISO/SPP competitive bidding has no timeline.

Funding and dilution. DRIP plus a new ATM in early 2027; holding-company finance costs already a drag.

Data-center load concentration at TEP. A 300 MW contract with a US$40M termination payment; further phases unsigned.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
ACC order on TEP	Regulatory	Allowed ROE / equity ratio set UNS earnings base from 1 Dec 2026	Yes
Post-catalyst drift	Market	Stock at 52W high, +13.6% in 30 sessions, catalyst now delivered	Yes
Target revisions	Market	Converted target mean below price; revisions due this week	Possible
Bond yields	Macro	Higher yields compress utility P/E and raise refinancing cost	Possible
US$/C$	Macro	NYSE line moves with CAD; FX shifts capex plan ~C$0.8B per 5 cents	Possible
Formula-rate litigation	Regulatory	Court challenge to ACC policy statement	Unlikely
Equity issuance	Financial	DRIP and new ATM programme in early 2027	Unlikely
Competitive bidding	Competitive	MISO/SPP solicitations; FERC complaint pending	Unlikely

The only risk with a date inside the window is Arizona. Everything else is either already priced (the plan) or slow-moving (litigation, funding). With the stock at highs, Arizona has more room to disappoint than to surprise positively.

Earnings and guidance signals

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report date	Revenue	vs est.	EPS (dil.)	vs est.	Reaction
Q3 2026	3 Nov 2026	C$3,115M	n/r	C$0.92	n/r	+0.7%
Q2 2026	31 Jul 2026	C$2,931M	n/r	C$0.78	n/r	−0.8%
Q1 2026	6 May 2026	C$3,403M	n/r	C$0.99	n/r	−2.3%
Q4 2025	12 Feb 2026	C$3,079M	n/r	C$0.83	n/r	+2.9%
Q3 2025	4 Nov 2025	C$2,938M	n/r	C$0.81	n/r	+1.4%
Q2 2025	—	C$2,815M	n/r	C$0.76	n/r	—
Q1 2025	—	C$3,338M	n/r	C$1.00	n/r	—
Q4 2024	—	C$2,949M	n/r	C$0.79	n/r	—

Revenue and diluted EPS from Fortis quarterly results (C$). Consensus estimates were not retrievable in this session (n/r). Reaction is the NYSE close-to-close move on the release date from the price feed; Q4 2024–Q2 2025 release dates not retrieved.

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev beat rate	EPS beat rate	Guidance
FTS	n/r	n/r	Dividend 4–6% to 2031; no EPS guide
DUK	4 of 4	3 of 4	2026 adj. EPS US$6.55–6.80
Peer median	n/r	n/r	—

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	Feb 2027 (est.)	Outside the 10–30 day window; Q4 is typically mid-February
2026 capex	C$6.0B	Up from C$5.6B
2027–31 capex	C$32.2B	+C$3.4B vs prior plan
Rate base 2031	C$63.9B	7.5% five-year CAGR
Dividend growth	4–6% p.a.	Extended through 2031

Duke beat-rate data from published consensus history (last four quarters). Fortis does not issue EPS guidance.

The next earnings print falls outside the window. Inside it, the only scheduled “guidance” event is the regulatory one in Arizona, so the earnings narrative is settled for the month.

Analyst outlook

Period	Source	View	Key point
Oct 2026	TipRanks (most recent rating)	Hold	Latest rating Hold with a C$70 target; AI analyst view Neutral
2026	Consensus (15 analysts, TSX line)	Hold	Average rating Hold; recorded target C$80.96 (feed dated ~May 2026)
Aug 2026	RBC Capital	Sector Perform	Target raised to C$89 from C$80
2026	TD Securities	Buy	Target raised to C$87 from C$84
2026	Wolfe Research	Underperform	Target US$50 from US$51
2026	Morningstar	Constructive	ITC best positioned for MISO investment; expected Iowa competitive wins

Coverage limitation: most feeds did not carry dates for individual actions, and no post-release (3–4 Nov) revisions were available at the time of writing. Views are dated to the best available period.

Insider and board activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal read
—	No filings retrieved	—	—	—	—	No signal

Fortis is a Canadian foreign private issuer; insider trades are filed on SEDI, not SEC Form 4, and were not accessible in this session. The only issuer activity identified: 3.4M shares sold by the company under the ATM programme in Q3 2026 at an average C$77.17 (~C$260M), and DRIP issuance of C$342M YTD. No signal is drawn.

Recent news and catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
Nov 2026 (TBA)	ACC	Final vote on TEP rate case; ALJ recommended 9.65% ROE, 55.5% equity, formula rates, new rates by 1 Dec	Yes
17 Nov 2026	Fortis	Record date for C$0.665 Q4 dividend (payable 1 Dec)	Yes
3 Nov 2026	Fortis Q3 release	Q3 EPS C$0.92 (adj. +5.7%); 2027–31 capex C$32.2B; dividend +4%; stock +0.7%	Done
Oct 2026	MISO / Fortis	ITC selected for MARS competitive Iowa project (US$1.0B; US$0.5B in plan)	Done
22 Oct 2026	MISO / Ameren	EASL Iowa 765 kV project (~US$1.23B) awarded to Ameren-led consortium; FTS +3.4% the same session	Done
Oct 2026	TEP / UNS	New integrated resource plans: up to US$1.6B base-case opportunity above plan	Done
Sep 2026	Fortis	US$1.0B junior subordinated notes (6.63% / 6.88%); ATM equity ~C$260M	Done
Sep 2026	BC / Canada	Environmental approval for Tilbury LNG Storage Tank and Phase 2 expansion	Done
24 Jul 2026	Province of BC	Order in Council approving Tilbury Phase 1B	Done

Newest first. The final column states whether the event falls inside the next 10–30 days from 4 Nov 2026.

Catalysts inside the window

ACC vote on TEP rates (November, date to be set) — moves the UNS earnings base and the stock directly. Dividend record date 17 November — mechanical ex-dividend dip of ~C$0.665. New TEP rates targeted 1 December — confirms or delays the regulatory catch-up. Post-plan sell-side target revisions in the first week of November.

Ratings and price targets · peer frame

Company	Price	Market cap	TTM revenue	P/S TTM	Rev growth (latest Q, YoY)	Source view	News sentiment
FTS	$59.72	US$30.8B	C$12.53B	3.4x^e	+6.0%	Hold	Positive
DUK	$128.38	n/r	US$33.25B^e	n/r	+5.6%	n/r	n/r
SO	$94.61	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r
XEL	$79.33	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r
AEP	$130.33	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r
Peer median	—	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	—	—

Peer prices are 2 Nov 2026 closes from the price feed. Peer fundamentals and ratios sit behind a data tier not available in this session (n/r). DUK TTM revenue sums its last four reported quarters (Q3 2025–Q2 2026); DUK growth is Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 revenue. Emera (NYSE: EMA, US$50.00) is the closest Canadian comparable but also lacked fundamentals.

8.5

Analyst price targets · multiple sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / source	Current target	Previous	Date	Implied return	Rating	Direction
TipRanks feed (latest rating, ~Oct 2026)	C$70.00	—	Oct 2026	−16.3%	Hold	► Maintained
RBC Capital	C$89.00	C$80.00	3 Aug 2026	+6.4%	Sector Perform	▲ Raised
TD Securities	C$87.00	C$84.00	2026 (undated)	+4.1%	Buy	▲ Raised
BMO Capital	C$83.00	C$79.00	2026 (undated)	−0.7%	Market Perform	▲ Raised
Scotiabank	C$81.00	C$80.00	2026 (undated)	−3.1%	Sector Perform	▲ Raised
Jefferies	C$70.00	C$84.00	2026 (undated)	−16.3%	Hold	▼ Lowered
Barclays	US$56.00	US$60.00	2026 (undated)	−6.2%	Overweight	▼ Lowered
Wolfe Research	US$50.00	US$51.00	2026 (undated)	−16.3%	Underperform	▼ Lowered

Implied return vs US$59.72; C$ targets converted at US$/C$ 1.40^e. Order is best-available recency; most actions were undated in the source feeds. The TipRanks row duplicates the Jefferies figure and is excluded from the summary statistics.

Metric	Value
Last close	$59.72
Consensus target (mean, converted)	$56.98
Median target	$57.86
High target	$63.57
Low target	$50.00
Implied upside to consensus	−4.6%
Implied downside to low	−16.3%
Analysts contributing	7

Target range vs last close (US$)

Fundamental analysis and peer comparison

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (diluted)	Gross margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs Est.	Next-day reaction
Q3 2026	C$3,115M	+6.3%	+6.0%	C$0.92	n/r	n/r	15.2%	n/r	+0.7%
Q2 2026	C$2,931M	−13.9%	+4.1%	C$0.78	n/r	n/r	13.5%	n/r	−0.8%
Q1 2026	C$3,403M	+10.5%	+1.9%	C$0.99	n/r	n/r	14.7%	n/r	−2.3%
Q4 2025	C$3,079M	+4.8%	+4.4%	C$0.83	n/r	n/r	13.7%	n/r	+2.9%
Q3 2025	C$2,938M	+4.4%	—	C$0.81	n/r	n/r	13.9%	n/r	+1.4%
Q2 2025	C$2,815M	−15.7%	—	C$0.76	n/r	n/r	13.6%	n/r	—
Q1 2025	C$3,338M	+13.2%	—	C$1.00	n/r	n/r	14.9%	n/r	—
Q4 2024	C$2,949M	—	—	C$0.79	n/r	n/r	13.4%	n/r	—

Margin is net common-equity earnings / revenue (derived^e). Gross margin and EBITDA are not reported by Fortis in its quarterly summary (n/r). Strong seasonality: Q1 and Q4 are heating-driven in Canada and New York. Reaction is the release-day session.

Revenue C$M · own band

Net margin % · own band

Two series sharing an x axis but not a scale get two stacked bands, never one.

9.1 — Liquidity

Metric	30 Sep 2026	31 Dec 2025	31 Dec 2024	Target / Status
Current ratio	n/r	n/r	n/r	Balance sheet not retrieved
Quick ratio	n/r	n/r	n/r	—
Cash ratio	n/r	n/r	n/r	—
Cash and equivalents	C$1,883M	C$367M	n/r	Elevated temporarily; used to repay debt on 5 Oct 2026
Unutilised credit facilities	C$4,913M	C$3,741M	n/r	Ample liquidity

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current ratio	Net cash position	Liquidity status
FTS	n/r	−C$33.9B	Strong (facilities)
Peer median	n/r	n/r	—

Regulated utilities run structurally low current ratios; liquidity rests on committed credit facilities (C$5.5B committed, maturities 2027–2031).

9.2 — Leverage and solvency

Metric	30 Sep 2026	31 Dec 2025	31 Dec 2024	Target / Status
Debt / total capital	52.8%	55.7%	n/r	Falling with hybrid issuance
Debt-to-equity (debt / common equity + NCI)	1.28x^e	1.38x^e	n/r	Typical for regulated utilities
Debt-to-assets	~0.46^e	n/r	n/r	Long-term debt C$37.8B / assets C$82B; <0.5
Interest coverage	n/r	n/r	n/r	Not retrieved
Debt service coverage	n/r	n/r	n/r	Not retrieved

9.3 — Profitability

Metric	Q3 2026	TTM	Q3 2025	FY2025	FY2024	Trend
Gross margin	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	—
Operating margin	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	—
Net margin	15.2%	14.3%	13.9%	14.1%	n/r	▲
Adj. EBITDA margin	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	—
Return on assets	n/r	2.2%^e	n/r	n/r	n/r	→
Return on equity	n/r	~7.4%^e	n/r	n/r	n/r	→
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	—

Peer comparison	Gross	Op margin	Net margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Profitability rank
FTS	n/r	n/r	14.3%	n/r	~7.6%^e	n/r
Peer median	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	—

ROA uses total assets of C$82B; ROE uses common equity of ~C$24.3B (C$26.45B including NCI, less ~3.4% NCI share). Both derived^e. Peer data not available in this session.

9.4 — Efficiency, growth and platform

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year	Comment
Asset turnover	0.15x^e	n/r	Capital-heavy by design
EPS growth (YoY, adj. YTD)	+2.3%	n/r	Dispositions cost C$0.05
Dividend yield	3.2%^e	n/r	C$2.66 annualised

Metric	Q3 2026	Q3 2025	YoY	Comment
UNS retail sales (GWh)	3,689	3,654	+1.0%	Industrial and residential growth
FortisAlberta deliveries (GWh)	4,447	4,257	+4.5%	Industrial customer growth
Operating cash flow (C$M)	1,301	1,027	+26.7%	Rate-base cash earnings, ITC sales
Capital expenditures (C$M)	1,492	1,316	+13.4%	YTD 70% of 2026 plan

Company	Asset turnover	Rev / employee	Employees	EPS growth	Div yield	Growth rank
FTS	0.15x	C$1,265K	9,900	+2.3%	3.2%	n/r
Peer median	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	n/r	—

9.5 — Valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM (reported)	23.8x^e	C$ price ≈ US$ × 1.40
P/E TTM (adjusted)	23.4x^e	Adds back Q4 2025 Belize loss
Price / sales TTM	3.4x^e	—
EV / EBITDA	n/r	EBITDA not retrieved
Dividend yield	3.2%^e	Forward annualised

Price / sales	Price	Market cap	TTM revenue	P/S TTM	vs peer median
FTS	$59.72	US$30.8B	US$8.95B^e	3.4x	n/r

Earnings & growth-adjusted	TTM EPS	P/E TTM	Rev growth	PEG	Assessment
FTS	C$3.52	23.8x	+4.1%	~3.2^e	Full

PEG uses the 7.5% rate-base CAGR as the growth proxy (derived^e).

Fundamentals justify a premium utility multiple, but at roughly 23–24 times trailing earnings and above the converted target mean, they do not leave much room for the price to rise inside a month without a fresh catalyst.

Regime analysis · Persistency and Volatility

0.50

Volatility at its trailing-year maximum, in Volatile trend

290 daily observations, 10 Sep 2025 – 2 Nov 2026. As of 2 Nov 2026 — 2 trading days behind the 4 Nov report date.

10.1 — Regime trace

FTS — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (290 daily points, oldest faint → newest bright). Q1 volatile trend, Q2 volatile chop, Q3 quiet range, Q4 quiet drift. Plot window: the full available series — 2025-09-10 to 2026-11-02, 290 observations. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. As of 2 Nov 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std Dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	0.059	−0.062	0.093	−0.264	0.059	100	Random / neutral band, but the highest reading of the year: the mean-reverting tilt of early 2026 has faded
Volatility	0.50	0.031	0.288	−0.497	0.50	100	High-vol boundary (≥0.5): wide ranges, richer option premia

Mean, std dev, min, max and percentile cover the trailing year — 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02, 252 observations. Current is the latest reading. Currently in Q1 Volatile trend, held 5 consecutive periods; neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis. Persistency has been rising steadily since late August, crossing zero on 22 Oct.

10.3 — Occupancy and transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of the last 364 days	Character
Q1	Volatile trend	20.6%	Directional moves that extend
Q2	Volatile chop	33.3%	Whipsaw; fading extremes worked
Q3	Quiet range	27.8%	Mean-reverting; premium-selling regime
Q4	Quiet drift	18.3%	Low-vol grind; best for holding long

Transition	Count	Note
Vol. Chop → Quiet Range	6	Volatility oscillation with Persistency negative
Quiet Range → Vol. Chop	6	Volatility oscillation with Persistency negative
Quiet Drift → Vol. Trend	2	Persistency near zero
Vol. Trend → Quiet Drift	1	Persistency near zero
Vol. Trend → Vol. Chop	1	Persistency near zero
Vol. Chop → Vol. Trend	1	Persistency near zero

Occupancy and transitions cover the trailing year — 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02, 252 observations. The trace above spans the full series; these figures do not.

Persistency moves slowly.

The series updates far less often than Volatility and held one value for 127 sessions to March 2026, producing a long vertical run on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. These statistics describe the stated window and are not predictions.

Three-fifths of the past year FTS sat in chop or quiet range with Persistency negative. It has now moved into Volatile trend with Volatility at its ceiling — a breakout-type configuration, but historically Volatility peaks for FTS (March, July 2026) were followed by a return to Quiet range within weeks.

Driver exposure · Market and Sector

99.1

of daily variance is company-specific

Regression on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 499 overlapping observations, 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026.

11.1 — Driver correlation table

Factor	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d (current)	Rolling Min	Rolling Max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	0.061	0.4	−0.134	−0.299	0.346	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 2	0.092	0.8	0.151	−0.422	0.369	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 3	−0.011	0.0	−0.095	−0.255	0.331	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 4	0.013	0.0	0.001	−0.341	0.185	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 5	0.003	0.0	0.110	−0.281	0.348	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	0.076	0.6	0.176	−0.200	0.594	Variable	Positive
Sector Driver 2	−0.065	0.4	−0.569	−0.575	0.511	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 3	−0.029	0.1	0.198	−0.520	0.294	Variable	Neutral

Daily log returns vs first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values, Pearson correlation, full window 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026, 499 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are never coloured. Drivers as of 2 Nov 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic decomposition

0.9%

Idiosyncratic 99.1%

Factor	Raw Beta	Standardised Beta	Share of Explained Variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	2.9190e−5	0.055	38%^e
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	2.0198e−2	0.071	62%^e

Systematic bar widened to 3% for legibility; true value 0.9%. Share of explained variance approximated from squared standardised betas (derived^e).

FTS is an idiosyncratic name, not a beta vehicle or a sector proxy: Market and Sector Drivers together explain under 1% of its daily moves. For the next 10–30 days the company — Arizona, the capital plan, target revisions — decides the month, and index hedges have historically offset almost nothing.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 against FTS daily returns, 60-day window. Market Driver 1 has drifted negative since May 2026 (−0.134 now, low −0.299 on 22 Oct); Sector Driver 1 is mildly positive (+0.176). Neither has held above 0.6.

Performance by market regime

Every group is named, never its proxy. Conditional statistics describe the stated window and are not forecasts. Unlike section 10, these tables use the full available history — here the full overlap of FTS returns with the market-regime series, 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026 (499 sessions).

12.1 — US market · currently in Q4 Quiet drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Quiet range	94	18.8%	+13.9%	+41.8%	16.4%	2.55	54.3%	+3.49%	−2.85%
Volatile trend	102	20.4%	+8.0%	+21.0%	14.3%	1.48	56.9%	+1.96%	−3.11%
Quiet drift	149	29.9%	+7.3%	+12.6%	13.6%	0.93	49.0%	+3.36%	−1.88%
Volatile chop	154	30.9%	+5.5%	+9.1%	16.2%	0.56	52.6%	+2.79%	−2.90%

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q4 Quiet drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile trend	105	21.0%	+10.9%	+28.1%	15.2%	1.85	56.2%	+2.32%	−3.11%
Quiet range	124	24.8%	+9.3%	+19.8%	15.9%	1.25	48.4%	+3.49%	−2.90%
Volatile chop	164	32.9%	+10.6%	+16.8%	15.5%	1.09	54.9%	+2.79%	−2.74%
Quiet drift	106	21.2%	+3.9%	+9.5%	13.4%	0.71	50.9%	+3.36%	−1.55%

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q4 Quiet drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Quiet drift	36	7.2%	+9.0%	+83.4%	15.5%	5.37	58.3%	+3.36%	−1.55%
Volatile chop	224	44.9%	+14.1%	+16.0%	15.4%	1.04	53.6%	+2.79%	−2.90%
Quiet range	206	41.3%	+11.8%	+14.6%	14.3%	1.02	50.0%	+3.49%	−2.07%
Volatile trend	33	6.6%	+0.2%	+1.2%	17.1%	0.07	57.6%	+1.71%	−3.11%

Full history, 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026. Best Sharpe row tinted green, worst red; buckets under 30 days greyed and marked thin. Market regimes as of 2 Nov 2026 — 2 trading days behind.

12.1d — Utilities · currently in Q1 Volatile trend

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile trend	102	20.4%	+10.8%	+28.8%	14.8%	1.95	57.8%	+2.24%	−3.11%
Volatile chop	166	33.3%	+17.1%	+27.1%	15.7%	1.72	53.6%	+3.49%	−2.74%
Quiet drift	83	16.6%	+6.0%	+19.3%	16.6%	1.16	51.8%	+2.88%	−2.85%
Quiet range	148	29.7%	+1.3%	+2.2%	13.6%	0.16	48.6%	+2.48%	−2.48%

Utilities Persistency reads 0.041 — on the boundary between Volatile trend and Volatile chop; provisional. Full history.

12.2 — Cross-group summary grid

Group	Current Regime	Best Regime for FTS	Worst Regime	Cum. Return in Current	Sharpe in Current	Sharpe Spread	Days in Current
US market	Q4 Quiet drift	Quiet range	Volatile chop	+7.3%	0.93	1.99	42
SP500	Q4 Quiet drift	Volatile trend	Quiet drift	+3.9%	0.71	1.14	42
Global market	Q4 Quiet drift (boundary)	Quiet drift	Volatile trend	+9.0%	5.37	5.30	36
Technology	Q3 Quiet range (boundary)	Volatile chop	Quiet drift	+16.1%	1.25	3.54	115
Financials	Q1 Volatile trend	Volatile chop	Quiet drift	+6.1%	1.38	2.89	5
Energy	Q1 Volatile trend	Volatile chop	Quiet drift	+4.8%	0.55	3.24	30
Utilities	Q1 Volatile trend (boundary)	Volatile trend	Quiet range	+10.8%	1.95	1.79	6
Europe	Q4 Quiet drift	Volatile chop	Volatile trend	+11.1%	1.31	2.39	6
Gold	Q2 Volatile chop	Volatile chop	Quiet range	+35.8%	1.36	0.84	63
VIX Near	Q4 Quiet drift (boundary)	Quiet drift	Quiet range	+6.6%	3.02	2.14	8
VIX Mid	Q4 Quiet drift	Volatile trend	Volatile chop	+9.1%	0.98	6.09	126
Bonds near	Q1 Volatile trend (boundary)	Quiet range	Volatile trend	−6.1%	−2.08	4.45	2
Bonds mid	Q1 Volatile trend	Volatile trend	Volatile chop	+16.7%	3.14	4.90	3
Bonds long	Q1 Volatile trend (boundary)	Volatile trend	Quiet range	+4.0%	5.34 Thin	4.58	2

All 14 mapped groups, full history. "Boundary" = Persistency or Volatility within 0.05 of an axis. Thin = fewer than 30 days in that bucket; annualised figures unreliable.

12.3 — Sensitivity callouts

Utilities regime has historically been followed by a flat month. After days with Utilities in Volatile trend, FTS averaged +0.1% over the next 21 sessions with 62% positive (n=96), versus +1.0% and 58% across all windows — stated as history, not forecast.

US market Quiet drift has been neutral for FTS. 42 sessions in the regime; FTS Sharpe 0.93 there, and the following 21 sessions averaged +0.2% with 46% positive (n=128).

Most sensitive to bond regimes. Sharpe spread 5.22 for Bonds mid and 4.45 for Bonds near: FTS did best when short/intermediate bonds were in Quiet range or Volatile trend, worst in short-bond Volatile trend (Sharpe −2.08, 46 days).

Current configuration is mixed. Bonds near and mid both sit in Volatile trend (2–3 days, boundary readings) — the bucket where FTS has done worst for short bonds and best for intermediate bonds.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 5 Nov 2024 – 2 Nov 2026, not the future. Rows marked thin sample hold fewer than 30 days and their annualised figures should not be relied on. Forward 21-session windows overlap and are not independent. Market regime series as of 2 Nov 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

News and market narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
3 Nov 26	Fortis releases Q3 2026 results, C$32.2B five-year plan and 4% dividend increase	Positive
3 Nov 26	2026 capex lifted to C$6.0B from C$5.6B on MISO tranche 1 and Tilbury 1B acceleration	Positive
3 Nov 26	ITC sees US$2.9–3.4B of MISO tranche 2.1 investment beyond the plan	Positive
Oct 26	ACC judge recommends 9.65% ROE and formula rates for Tucson Electric Power	Positive
Oct 26	ITC awarded MARS competitive Iowa transmission project (US$1.0B)	Positive
22 Oct 26	Ameren-led consortium wins EASL 765 kV Iowa project (~US$1.23B)	Neutral
Oct 26	TEP and UNS Electric file IRPs with up to US$1.6B opportunity above plan	Positive
Oct 26	Latest sell-side rating on Fortis: Hold, C$70 target	Negative
Sep 26	Fortis issues US$1.0B junior subordinated notes at 6.63% and 6.88%	Neutral
Sep 26	Canada drafts Productivity Mega Deduction; Fortis expects no material impact	Neutral
Sep 26	Tilbury LNG tank and Phase 2 expansion receive environmental approval	Positive
Jul 26	Q2 EPS C$0.78 vs C$0.76; Tilbury 1B approved by BC	Positive

Newest first. Sentiment is this desk’s read of the headline’s likely effect on FTS.

Company snapshot

Field	Fortis Inc.	Peer context
Legal name	Fortis Inc.	—
Exchange / IPO	TSX and NYSE: FTS (NYSE listing 2016)	Dual-listed; NYSE line in US$
Domicile	St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada	Foreign private issuer in the US
Sector / industry	Utilities · Regulated electric and gas	—
Market cap	US$30.8B (515.8M shares)	Smaller than DUK, SO, AEP
Employees	9,900	3.5 million customers
TTM revenue	C$12,528M	2025 revenue C$12B; assets C$82B
Revenue model	~99% regulated: transmission (ITC, FERC), integrated electric (UNS), distribution, gas (FortisBC)	Five Canadian provinces, ten US states, Cayman Islands
Key differentiators	Largest independent US transmission owner (ITC, 80.1%); 53 years of dividend increases; geographic diversification	Rate base C$45.3B (2026)
CIK	0001666175	—
Website	fortisinc.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · priced for the plan

The evidence favours the neutral case: Fortis delivered a larger plan and a dividend increase, but the stock had already moved to its 52-week high, trades above the converted analyst target mean and sits at the top of its own volatility range. Over the next 10–30 days the company, not the market, decides the price. A clean ACC approval near the recommended 9.65% ROE would support the highs; any reduction in ROE or equity ratio would make the bear case the more likely one.

Volatility Farm

1 · NYSE prices from the Massive market-data API, daily bars 4 Nov 2024 – 3 Nov 2026; last completed session 3 Nov 2026 close. Peer prices are 2 Nov 2026 closes.
2 · Financial statements from Fortis' Q3 2026 news release and interim MD&A (6-K, 3 Nov 2026) and its Q1–Q2 2026 releases; Duke Energy figures from published quarterly results. Analyst actions from public aggregators (stockanalysis.com, TipRanks/Globe and Mail, MarketScreener, Morningstar), mostly undated.
3 · Persistency, Volatility and Market/Sector Driver series from the proprietary Trader workbook (Individual regimes daily, Market regimes daily, and the Market and Sector driver tabs), as of 2 Nov 2026, 2 trading days behind this report date.
4 · Derived figures (^e): C$ price (US$ × 1.40), P/E, P/S, dividend yield, PEG, converted analyst targets and their mean/median, debt-to-equity, debt-to-assets, ROA, ROE, net margin, TTM sums, DUK TTM revenue, explained-variance shares, forward 21-session returns.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 4 Nov 2026. Regime and driver statistics are descriptive of their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.