GM · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

GM's trucks carried the quarter and a $20B buyback dwarfs the risk, but a capped profit guide sent the stock 8% lower

Q3 2026 EBIT-adjusted rose 22% to $4.1B (8.2% margin) and North America earned an 8.7% margin, with adjusted EPS of $3.70 just ahead of $3.63. GM also raised free-cash-flow guidance by $1.5B and authorised a new $20B buyback. But the full-year profit midpoint stayed at $15B and the EPS midpoint ($13.25) sits below the $13.48 consensus; International, China and GM Financial all fell, and US share slipped to 16.1%. Shares were ~8% lower pre-market at ~$76. Over the next 10–30 days GM trades with the market and the auto group; the buyback pace, Ford's print and the rate path decide whether the gap fills.

Research desk

2026-10-20 · Data as of 19 Oct 2026 close; Q3 release 20 Oct pre-market · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · cheap and buying back, guide capped

Close 19 Oct 2026

$82.75

30 day

▲ 0.7%

Year to date

▲ 1.8%

From 52W high

▼ 9.9%

Ann. volatility (30d)

35.8%

Regime as of

19 Oct

Market cap

$70.3B

52W range

$57.55–91.85

TTM revenue

$186.95B

Rev growth

+2.9% Q3

P/S TTM

0.38×

P/E TTM

6.1× (adj.)

Report date

20 Oct 2026

TTM EPS

$13.48 adj. ($4.36)

EV/EBIT-adj (auto)

4.2×

GMNA margin

8.7% (+2.5 pts)

US market share

16.1% (−0.7 pts)

Net cash (auto)

+$7.3B

Employees

~156,000

Next catalyst

28 Oct (Ford)

GM · 30-day price

GM · 1-year price

Executive Summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	Closed at $82.75 on 19 Oct: +0.7% over 30 days, +1.8% YTD, −9.9% from the $91.85 high of 29 Jul, and +44% over a year. About −8% pre-market (~$76) on the release, below the 200-day average ($80.69) but above the July low ($74.22). In five of the last six prints, the stock was higher 21 sessions later.	Bearish
Revenue growth	Q3 revenue $50.0B, +2.9%, against $48.7B consensus. Global wholesale 1.028M units (+5%); GMNA 870k (+4%). US sales 671k (−6%) as share fell to 16.1% from 16.8%. China industry share 6.6%, GM China sales −24%.	Mixed
Profitability	EBIT-adjusted $4.11B (+22%), 8.2% margin (+1.3 pts). GMNA $3.59B (+43%), an 8.7% margin. GMI $28M (−88%), China equity income $32M (−60%), GM Financial $668M (−17%). Net income $3.34B; adjusted EPS $3.70 (+32%) against $3.63. ROIC-adjusted 24.8%.	Bullish
Valuation vs peers	6.1× TTM adjusted EPS at $82.75, and ~5.7× the $13.25 guidance midpoint at ~$76. About 1.0× book at $76 ($73.98 BVPS). Adjusted automotive FCF guidance of $11.5–12.5B is a ~17% FCF yield. P/S 0.38× against a 0.29× peer median.	Bullish
Platform KPIs	US truck share 31.0% (−1.3 pts), crossover share 12.8% (−0.7 pts). Fleet mix 19.2% of sales (16.7%). EV realignment charges of $238M in Q3 ($3.6B YTD). Software and services deferred revenue is expected to reach about $7.5B.	Mixed
Balance sheet	Automotive cash and securities $23.1B against $15.8B of automotive debt: automotive net cash +$7.3B. Q3 adjusted automotive FCF $5.88B (+40%). Shares outstanding 849M (904M at end-2025, 1.2B at end-2023). The $6B buyback is complete and a new $20B is authorised (~31% of market cap at $76).	Bullish
Regime state	Q3 Quiet Range: Persistency −0.087 (51st percentile), Volatility −0.094 (40th). Held 2 sessions after 11 in Volatile Chop. Not on a boundary. As of 19 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag); the reading predates the release.	Neutral
Driver exposure	73.2% idiosyncratic. Sector Driver 1 explains 26.8% of variance (correlation −0.52, never positive on a rolling basis). One-year correlation 0.43 with the S&P 500 (beta 1.17) and 0.60 with Ford. As of 19 Oct 2026.	Bearish
Key risk (next 10–30 days)	Guidance credibility and 2027 doubt. The EBIT midpoint is unchanged, so Q4 implies ~$2.7B, below Q4 2025's $2.84B. With tariffs ($2.5–3.5B gross), inflation, the new truck launches and EV losses in the frame, analysts may trim 2027. GM's high market beta adds index risk.	Bearish
Catalysts in window	Ford Q3 (28 Oct, just before the window), FOMC (27–28 Oct), Toyota and Honda results (5 Nov) and the October jobs report (~6 Nov) fall in or near the window. The pace of buybacks under the new $20B authorisation is the company-specific lever. The dividend record date (4 Dec) falls outside.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days)	Mixed, with a constructive lean. The quarter was better than the reaction: North America margins, cash flow and capital return all improved. A capped profit guide, weak International and China results, and US share loss explain the gap. A sub-6× multiple, a buyback worth a third of the company and a favourable market map argue the gap is more likely to narrow than extend. Composite 6.7 / 10. Mixed

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (30 Oct – 19 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came before the open on 20 Oct; the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data (~$76 at 08:10 ET). The implied Q4 EBIT-adjusted (~$2.7B) is derived from the $15B midpoint less nine-month $12.3B.

GM keeps converting a strong truck franchise into cash and shrinking its share count by 6% a year. What the market sold is the forward view: profit guidance that did not rise with the beat, and a Q4 that implies a step down. Over the next month the question is whether buybacks and valuation absorb that, or whether 2027 worries take over.

Investment Thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.

Bull case

The beat was real. EBIT-adjusted +22%, GMNA margin 8.7% (+2.5 pts), adjusted EPS +32%, revenue $1.3B above consensus.

Cash is rising faster than profit. Adjusted automotive FCF guidance raised by $1.5B at the midpoint to $11.5–12.5B; Q3 alone was $5.9B (+40%).

A buyback worth a third of the company. The new $20B authorisation is ~31% of market cap at $76. The share count is already down 6% this year and 29% since end-2023.

Very cheap. ~5.7× 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at $76, about 1.0× book, with automotive net cash of $7.3B.

History favours the rebound. Post-print 21-day moves were positive in five of six quarters (median +5.2%), including +16.1% after an −8.1% print-day drop in July 2025. 10 of 14 market groups sit in regimes with a positive GM Sharpe.

What must happen in the window: buybacks restart at pace, Ford and Toyota show stable US pricing, and GM reclaims $82.75 to close the gap.

Neutral case

Good quarter, unchanged year. The $15B EBIT midpoint did not move after three quarters of beats, so the beat was a timing shift, not an upgrade.

A wide band. At 36% annualised volatility, a ±1 standard-deviation 21-session move from $76 is about ±$7.9, which spans roughly $68–84.

A range regime. GM sits in Quiet Range, from which its 21-day forward median has been +0.5% (52% positive), close to flat.

Targets will trim, not collapse. The 23-analyst consensus is Buy with a $104 mean; cuts of $5–10 would still leave 25%+ upside from $76.

What must happen in the window: peer prints are mixed, the market holds, and GM trades $74–83, between the July low and the gap.

Bear case

The implied Q4 is weak. The $15B midpoint less $12.3B year to date leaves ~$2.7B for Q4, below Q4 2025's $2.84B and the weakest of the last seven quarters.

Share loss at home. US sales fell 6% while the industry fell 1%; share dropped 0.7 pts to 16.1%, truck share 1.3 pts to 31.0%.

Everything outside North America weakened. GMI EBIT-adjusted $28M (−88%), China equity income −60% with China volumes −24%, GM Financial −17%.

Cost pressure into 2027. Gross tariff costs of $2.5–3.5B, $1.5–2.0B of commodity inflation, new pickup launches and still-loss-making EVs ($3.6B of EV charges year to date).

Insiders sold the rally. CEO Barra sold ~$49.9M of stock between late May and July at $85–90, and the President and other officers sold another ~$11.3M; there were no purchases.

What must happen in the window: Ford flags tariff or pricing pressure, the market corrects (beta 1.17), and GM breaks the $74.22 July low.

GM is earning more and buying back faster than ever; the market sold it for refusing to promise more. At under six times earnings, that refusal is already a large part of the price.

Composite Assessment

The finding: over the next 10–30 days GM's capped guidance is outweighed by a ~17% FCF yield and a $20B buyback, so the evidence leans toward the gap narrowing back toward $83 if Ford's print and the market hold. A break of the $74.22 July low would mean 2027 doubts have taken over.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue Growth

5.5

+2.9% Q3; wholesale +5%; US share −0.7 pts (4th of 5)

Profitability

7.0

EBIT-adj margin 8.2%; GMNA 8.7%; ROIC-adj 24.8%; GAAP ROE 6.4% (2nd of 5)

Valuation

8.5

~5.7× 2026 adj. EPS at $76; ~1.0× book; ~17% FCF yield

Earnings Quality

6.0

8 of 8 adjusted beats; $3.7B of special charges YTD; GAAP TTM EPS $4.36

Balance Sheet

7.5

Automotive net cash +$7.3B; GM Financial debt $113B self-funding

Competitive Position

7.5

US share leader (16.1%); 31% of US trucks; weak outside North America

Structural Risk

5.0

Tariffs $2.5–3.5B; EV write-downs; China decline; cyclical demand

Regime Alignment

7.0

10 of 14 groups positive Sharpe; Technology in GM's worst regime

Driver Independence

5.5

73.2% idiosyncratic; S&P 500 correlation 0.43, beta 1.17

Composite

6.7

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 · Risk 10 · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.25). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.38 + 1.70 + 1.26 + 0.72 + 0.63 + 0.70 + 0.28 = 6.7 (6.66).

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

North America. EBIT-adjusted $3.59B (+43%); margin 8.7% against 6.2%.

Cash flow. Q3 adjusted automotive FCF $5.88B (+40%); full-year guide raised to $11.5–12.5B.

Capital return. $6B programme completed; new $20B authorisation; dividend $0.18.

Cost of sales. Automotive cost of sales −2.9% on automotive revenue +3.3%.

Returns. ROIC-adjusted 24.8% against 18.5% a year ago.

Loses

Guidance. EBIT midpoint unchanged at $15B; EPS midpoint $13.25 against $13.48 consensus.

US share. 16.1% (−0.7 pts); US deliveries −6% against industry −1%.

International. GMI EBIT-adjusted $28M against $226M; China volumes −24%.

GM Financial. EBT-adjusted $668M, −17%.

EV economics. $3.6B of EV realignment charges year to date.

Risk Factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Estimate resets. Consensus EPS of $13.48 sits above the new $13.25 midpoint, and the implied ~$2.7B Q4 EBIT is below last year. Analysts are likely to trim Q4 and 2027 numbers in the days after the print; targets are high ($104 mean), so cuts can still be large.

Market beta. GM's one-year beta to the S&P 500 is 1.17 (correlation 0.43). The index sits near its high, and a pullback would hit GM more than most names in this series.

Ford read-across. Ford (0.60 correlation) reports on 28 Oct. Tariff, warranty or pricing pressure there would reinforce the US share and cost worries.

Technology regime. Technology has been in Quiet Range for 104 sessions, GM's worst regime for that group (Sharpe −0.39, spread 5.99, the widest in the grid). With Technology there, GM's 21-day forward median has been −1.2%.

Tariff and trade headlines. Gross tariff costs of $2.5–3.5B are built into guidance; any change to Korea, Mexico or Canada import terms moves the 2027 bridge.

Structural context

EV strategy. $3.6B of EV realignment charges this year and losses that are narrowing but not yet ending; capacity has been cut.

China. Industry share 6.6% and volumes −24%; the JVs earned $32M in Q3.

Credit cycle. GM Financial's $91B of receivables and $32B of leases expose earnings to used-car prices and consumer credit.

Truck cycle. The profit pool is concentrated in full-size pickups and SUVs; a new-generation launch is coming, and a pricing turn would hit margins hard.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Estimate resets	Financial	EPS midpoint below consensus; weak implied Q4	Yes
Market drawdown	Macro	Beta 1.17 to the S&P 500	Yes
Ford / Toyota / Honda read-across	Competitive	US pricing, tariffs, incentives	Possible
Technology regime	Market	GM's worst Technology regime (spread 5.99)	Possible
Tariff policy	Macro	$2.5–3.5B gross cost; trade-terms headlines	Possible
EV losses	Structural	Charges and operating losses	Structural
China decline	Structural	Share and JV profit erosion	Structural
Credit / used-car prices	Financial	GM Financial earnings	Structural

The risks inside the window are about expectations and the market, not the business: analysts resetting to a guide that did not rise, and a high-beta stock exposed to any index pullback. The structural risks are real but are why GM trades under six times earnings.

Earnings & Guidance Signals

8.7

GM North America EBIT-adjusted margin, up 2.5 points year on year on $3.59B of profit

North America is 84% of operating-segment profit. GMI ($28M), China ($32M equity income) and GM Financial ($668M) all fell. The group EBIT-adjusted margin was 8.2% (+1.3 pts).

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report Date	Revenue	vs Est.	EPS (dil.)	vs Est.	Stock Reaction
Q3 2026 (Sep-26)	20 Oct 2026	$50,015M	+2.7%	$3.73 (adj. $3.70)	+1.9%	Pre-mkt ~−8%
Q2 2026 (Jun-26)	21 Jul 2026	$48,026M	+2.2%	$1.41 (adj. $3.57)	+12.0%	+4.9%
Q1 2026 (Mar-26)	28 Apr 2026	$43,624M	n/a	$2.82 (adj. $3.70)	+40.2%	+1.3%
Q4 2025 (Dec-25)	27 Jan 2026	$45,286M	n/a	−$3.60 (adj. $2.51)	+10.6%	+8.7%
Q3 2025 (Sep-25)	21 Oct 2025	$48,591M	n/a	$1.35 (adj. $2.80)	+20.6%	+14.9%
Q2 2025 (Jun-25)	22 Jul 2025	$47,122M	n/a	$1.91 (adj. $2.53)	+2.2%	−8.1%

Reports come before the open, so the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing (~$76 pre-market at 08:10 ET). EPS surprise compares adjusted EPS with the vendor consensus. Revenue consensus is from StockStory (Q3 2026: $48.69B) and XTB (Q2 2026: $47.01B). 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +16.1%, +2.8%, −6.5%, +6.8%, +6.8%.

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev Beat Rate	EPS Beat Rate	Guidance
GM	n/c	100% (8/8)	Annual EBIT, EPS and FCF ranges
GM (since 2021)	—	96% (23/24)	One miss (Q2 2022)
Ford	n/c	88% (7/8)	Annual EBIT and FCF ranges
Toyota	n/c	75% (6/8)	Annual forecast
Stellantis	n/c	13% (1/8)	Suspended then reinstated
Honda	n/c	0% (0/8)	Annual forecast
Peer median (last 8)	n/c	44%	—

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
2026 EBIT-adjusted	$14.5–15.5B	Narrowed from $14.0–16.0B; midpoint unchanged
2026 EPS-diluted-adjusted	$12.75–13.75	Midpoint $13.25 (from $13.00) vs $13.48 consensus
2026 adj. automotive FCF	$11.5–12.5B	Raised from $9.5–11.5B
2026 net income	$8.9–9.5B	GAAP EPS $9.72–10.72
Capital expenditure	$10–12B	Unchanged
Share repurchase	$20B new	No expiry; $6B programme completed
Next quarterly report	~late Jan 2027	Outside the window; 2027 guidance then

The next report and the 2027 guide fall outside the window, so the narrowed 2026 range is what the stock trades on. It says profit stays at $15B and cash comes in higher. That is a better quality mix than the headline suggests, but it gives no new upside for analysts to chase.

Analyst Outlook

Period	Source	View	Key Point
20 Oct 2026 (print)	StockStory, INDmoney reads	Mixed	Revenue $50.0B vs $48.7B, EPS $3.70 vs $3.63; full-year EPS midpoint below consensus
Oct 2026 (pre-print)	Goldman, UBS, RBC	Bullish	Buy $112 (raised), Buy $112 (trimmed from $114), Outperform $102
Oct 2026 (pre-print)	JPMorgan	Bullish	Overweight; target cut from $120 to $110
Jul 2026 (post-Q2)	TD Cowen, Tigress, Jefferies	Bullish	Buy $132; Strong Buy $130; Jefferies upgraded to Buy at $99
Jul 2026	Wells Fargo	Bearish	Underweight; $61
Consensus	23 analysts	Bullish	"Buy"; mean target $104.17, median $105, range $75–132

Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus (retrieved 20 Oct 2026, pre-market); StockStory and INDmoney earnings reports (20 Oct 2026). Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing. The vendor low target ($75) differs from Wells Fargo's logged $61.

Insider & Board Activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal Read
3 Aug 2026	Grant Dixton, Officer	Sale	40,000	$88.44	$3.54M	Mild negative
28 Jul 2026	Mary Barra, CEO	Option exercise and sale	422,809	$85.32–90.38	$37.69M	Negative; sold into the post-Q2 rally
28 Jul 2026	Mark Reuss, President	Option exercise and sale	71,079	$89.97	$6.39M	Negative-leaning
27–28 Jul 2026	Rory Harvey, Christopher Hatto (officers)	Sale	15,777	$86.95–90.00	$1.39M	Mild negative
16 Jun 2026	Mary Barra, CEO	Option exercise and sale	99,239	$85.10	$8.45M	Negative-leaning
9 Jun 2026	Mary Barra, CEO	Option exercise and sale	20,582	$85.00	$1.75M	Limit-price pattern at $85
29 May 2026	Mary Barra, CEO	Sale	23,000	$85.00	$1.96M	Limit-price pattern at $85

Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed. Officers sold ~$61.2M from late May to early August, mostly option exercises at limit prices of $85 and above; there were no open-market purchases. The company itself retired 55M shares in nine months (904M to 849M), roughly $4.6B at ~$84 (derived), which far outweighs insider selling.

Recent News & Catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
~late Jan 2027	GM (expected)	Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance	No
4 Dec 2026	GM	Dividend record date ($0.18; payable 17 Dec)	No
~6 Nov 2026	BLS (expected)	October jobs report; consumer and credit read	Yes
5 Nov 2026	Toyota, Honda	Quarterly results; US pricing, tariffs and hybrid demand	Yes
Oct – Nov 2026	GM	Execution of the new $20B repurchase authorisation	Yes
28 Oct 2026	Ford	Q3 results after the close; the most-correlated peer (0.60)	Just before
27–28 Oct 2026	Federal Reserve	FOMC; auto-loan rates and GM Financial funding	Just before
20 Oct 2026	GM release	Q3: EBIT-adj $4.1B (+22%), adj. EPS $3.70; guidance narrowed; $20B buyback	No, sets the base
1 Oct 2026	GM sales release	Q3 US deliveries 671k (−6%); share 16.1%	No, sets the base
21 Jul 2026	GM release	Q2: adj. EPS $3.57; guidance raised; stock +4.9%, then to a $91.85 high	No, sets the base

The window is 10–30 days from the 20 Oct 2026 report date (30 Oct – 19 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Peer dates come from the vendor earnings calendar. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.

Catalysts inside the window

Just before: FOMC (27–28 Oct) and Ford (28 Oct), the closest read on US pricing, tariffs and warranty costs. Throughout: buyback execution under the new $20B authorisation. 5 Nov: Toyota and Honda, for US share and pricing. ~6 Nov: the October jobs report. GM has no scheduled event of its own in the window.

Ratings & Price Targets — Peer Frame

Company	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY)	Source View	News Sentiment
GM	$82.75	$70.3B	$186.95B	0.38×	+2.9%	Buy · $104.17	Mixed
Toyota (TM)	$194.06	$228.6B	~$328.6B	0.70×	+10.4%	n/r · $234.08	Neutral
Ford (F)	$12.18	$48.6B	$187.97B	0.26×	−3.8%	Buy · $15.61	Mixed
Honda (HMC)	$34.06	$44.2B	~$142.4B	0.31×	+13.5%	n/r · $33.27	Neutral
Stellantis (STLA)	$4.29	$16.2B	~$180.5B	0.09×	+13.1%	Hold · $6.96	Negative
Peer median	—	$46.4B	$184.2B	0.29×	+11.8%	—	—

Prices are at the 19 Oct 2026 close; GM was ~$76 pre-market on 20 Oct. GM revenue is TTM to Q3 2026 from company releases. Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun 2026. Toyota and Honda (yen) and Stellantis (euro) revenue are converted at 158.1 JPY/USD and 1.122 USD/EUR (marked ~). Toyota and Honda have too few US-listed analysts for a rating key (n/r). Peer YoY growth for Toyota, Honda and Stellantis is in local currency.

8.5

Analyst Price Targets — Multiple Sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / Source	Current Target	Previous	Date	Implied Return	Rating	Direction
JPMorgan	$110	$120	12 Oct 2026	+32.9%	Overweight	▼ Lowered
RBC Capital	$102	$100	12 Oct 2026	+23.3%	Outperform	▲ Raised
UBS	$112	$114	7 Oct 2026	+35.3%	Buy	▼ Lowered
Goldman Sachs	$112	$103	6 Oct 2026	+35.3%	Buy	▲ Raised
UBS	$114	$102	14 Sep 2026	+37.8%	Buy	▲ Raised
Tigress Financial	$130	$92	28 Jul 2026	+57.1%	Strong Buy	▲ Raised
Jefferies	$99	$90	27 Jul 2026	+19.6%	Buy (upgrade)	▲ Raised
Wells Fargo	$61	$60	22 Jul 2026	−26.3%	Underweight	▲ Raised
Morgan Stanley	$101	$100	22 Jul 2026	+22.1%	Overweight	▲ Raised
TD Cowen	$132	$126	22 Jul 2026	+59.5%	Buy	▲ Raised

Implied return is measured against the $82.75 close on 19 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Nine of the ten most recent actions are at Buy-equivalent ratings; October saw two cuts (JPMorgan, UBS) alongside two raises. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.

Metric	Value
Last close	$82.75
Consensus target	$104.17
Median target	$105.00
High target	$132.00
Low target	$75.00
Implied upside to consensus	+25.9%
Implied downside to low	−9.4%
Analysts contributing	23

Yahoo Finance consensus, 20 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. From the ~$76 pre-market level the consensus implies about +37%, and the stock sits at the vendor's $75 low target.

Target range vs last close ($82.75)

$75

$104

$105

$132

Fundamental Financial Analysis — Company Trends & Peer Comparison

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (diluted)	Gross Margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs Est.	Next-day Reaction
Q2 2025 (Jun-25)	$47,122M	n/d	n/d	$1.91	9.1%	~$3,037M	~6.4%	Beat	−8.1%
Q3 2025 (Sep-25)	$48,591M	+3.1%	n/d	$1.35	6.4%	$3,376M	6.9%	Beat	+14.9%
Q4 2025 (Dec-25)	$45,286M	−6.8%	−5.1%	−$3.60	−2.5%	$2,840M	6.3%	Beat	+8.7%
Q1 2026 (Mar-26)	$43,624M	−3.7%	n/d	$2.82	11.5%	~$4,256M	~9.8%	Beat	+1.3%
Q2 2026 (Jun-26)	$48,026M	+10.1%	+1.9%	$1.41	7.6%	~$3,940M	8.2%	Beat	+4.9%
Q3 2026 (Sep-26)	$50,015M	+4.1%	+2.9%	$3.73	11.2%	$4,106M	8.2%	Beat	Pending

The EBITDA column shows GM's EBIT-adjusted, its headline profit measure; Margin is EBIT-adjusted margin. Q2 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 EBIT-adjusted are derived from nine-month totals and the reported Q2 2026 margin (marked ~). Gross margin is total revenue less automotive cost of sales and GM Financial expenses (derived); Q4 2025 was negative on $7.2B of EV-related charges. EPS is GAAP diluted; vs Est. compares adjusted EPS with consensus.

Revenue $M · own band

EBIT-adjusted margin % · own band

Revenue has stayed between $43.6B and $50.0B, while EBIT-adjusted margin stepped up from 6.3–6.9% in 2025 to 8.2–9.8% in 2026 as North America pricing, mix and lower EV losses offset tariffs. Guidance implies Q4 falls back to ~6% (derived).

9.1 — Liquidity ratios

Metric	30 Sep 2026	31 Dec 2025	31 Dec 2024	Target / Status
Current ratio	1.09	1.17	1.13	1.5–3.0 target · below; typical for an automaker with a captive finance arm
Quick ratio	0.94	1.01	0.98	≥1.0 · just below; inventories $15.6B
Cash ratio	0.26	0.30	0.21	Cash and marketable securities $27.8B (Dec 24: cash only)

Consolidated ratios from the reported balance sheets (derived); current liabilities include $42.9B of GM Financial short-term debt. On an automotive-only basis, cash and securities of $23.1B exceed automotive debt of $15.8B.

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current Ratio	Net Cash Position	Liquidity Status
GM (Sep 26)	1.09	−$104.1B (auto +$7.3B)	Strong (automotive)
Honda (Jun 26)	1.29	~−$56.1B	Strong
Toyota (Jun 26)	1.17	~−$193.6B	Strong
Ford (Jun 26)	1.09	−$141.2B	Adequate
Stellantis (Jun 26)	1.04	~−$22.6B	Stretched
Peer median	1.13	−$98.7B	—

Net cash is vendor consolidated cash less total debt, including captive-finance debt, which is matched by finance receivables. Yen and euro balances are converted at current rates (marked ~).

9.2 — Leverage & solvency

Metric	30 Sep 2026	31 Dec 2025	31 Dec 2024	Target / Status
Debt-to-equity	2.00	2.06	2.07	Consolidated incl. GM Financial · automotive only 0.25
Debt-to-assets	0.45	0.46	0.47	<0.5 conservative · passed
Interest coverage	25.3× (Q3)	17.5×	17.6×	>2.5 healthy · passed (EBIT-adjusted over automotive interest)
Debt service coverage	n/m	n/m	n/m	>1.25 healthy · not applicable; GM Financial debt is serviced by receivables

Total debt $128.7B (Sep 26: automotive $15.8B, GM Financial $112.9B), $130.3B (Dec 25), $130.7B (Dec 24, vendor). Coverage uses EBIT-adjusted ($4.1B Q3; $12.7B FY25; $14.9B FY24) over automotive interest expense ($162M; $727M; $846M).

9.3 — Profitability ratios

Metric	Q3 2026	TTM	Q3 2025	FY2025	FY2024	Trend
Gross margin	11.2%	7.0%	6.4%	6.3%	12.5%	▲
Operating margin	7.2%	2.3%	2.2%	1.6%	6.8%	▲
Net margin	6.7%	2.1%	2.7%	1.5%	3.2%	▲
Adj. EBITDA margin (EBIT-adj.)	8.2%	8.1%	6.9%	6.9%	7.9%	▲
Return on assets	1.2% (q)	1.4%	0.5% (q)	1.0%	2.2%	▲
Return on equity	5.2% (q)	6.4%	2.1% (q)	4.3%	9.4%	▲
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	—	2.1% × 0.65 × 4.53	—	1.5% × 0.66 × 4.6	—	GAAP margin depressed by EV charges

(q) = single quarter, not annualised. TTM ROE (6.4%) and ROIC-adjusted (24.8%) are company-reported; other ratios are derived. TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026 and includes $7.2B of Q4 2025 EV charges. FY2024 EBIT-adjusted was $14.9B.

Peer comparison	Gross	Op Margin	Net Margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Profitability Rank
GM (TTM)	7.0%	2.3%	2.1%	8.1%	6.4%	2 of 5
Toyota	16.8%	7.9%	8.6%	10.8%	12.4%	1 of 5
Honda	17.4%	8.8%	−0.8%	5.7%	−0.8%	3 of 5
Ford	7.1%	1.9%	−3.9%	4.1%	−18.3%	4 of 5
Stellantis	6.6%	2.2%	−12.1%	−0.2%	−28.7%	5 of 5
Peer median	12.0%	5.1%	−2.3%	4.9%	−9.5%	—

Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures, and peer EBITDA margins are reported EBITDA. GM's Adj. EBITDA column is EBIT-adjusted (TTM). Rank is by ROE. Three of the four peers are loss-making on a TTM basis, mostly on EV and restructuring charges.

9.4 — Efficiency & growth

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year	Comment
Asset turnover	0.65	0.66 (FY25)	Revenue over latest total assets ($289.2B)
Revenue per employee	~$1.20M	~$1.19M (FY25)	On ~156,000 employees (vendor)
EPS growth (Q3 YoY)	+32% adj.	—	GAAP $3.73 vs $1.35; diluted shares −8%
Revenue growth (9M)	+1.4%	—	Q3 +2.9%; wholesale 9M +2%
Dividend yield	0.87%	—	$0.18 quarterly; buybacks are the main return
Book value per share	$73.98	$67.61 (Dec 25)	Stockholders' equity $62.8B over 849M shares (derived)

Company	Asset Turnover	Rev / Employee	Employees	EPS Growth	Div Yield	Growth Rank
GM	0.65	$1.20M	~156,000	+32% (adj.)	0.87%	4 of 5
Honda	0.65	~$0.73M	195,109	+129%	3.91%	1 of 5
Stellantis	0.75	~$0.70M	258,668	n/m	0.00%	2 of 5
Toyota	0.51	~$0.89M	367,990	+76%	3.23%	3 of 5
Ford	0.66	$1.11M	169,000	n/m	4.93%	5 of 5
Peer median	0.66	$0.81M	~226,900	n/m	3.57%	—

Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure (n/m where loss-making). Revenue per employee for yen and euro reporters is converted at current rates.

Platform metrics

Metric	Q3 2026	Q3 2025	YoY	Comment
Global wholesale (units)	1,028k	977k	+5%	GMNA 870k (+4%); GMI 159k (+16%)
US deliveries	671k	710k	−5.5%	Industry −1.3%
US market share	16.1%	16.8%	−0.7 pts	Trucks 31.0% (−1.3); crossovers 12.8% (−0.7)
China sales (incl. JVs)	358k	469k	−24%	Share 6.6% (6.8%); equity income $32M
Fleet share of sales	19.2%	16.7%	+2.5 pts	Fleet 267k units
GMNA EBIT-adjusted	$3,592M	$2,506M	+43%	Margin 8.7% (6.2%)
GM Financial EBT-adjusted	$668M	$804M	−17%	Receivables $91.4B
Adjusted automotive FCF	$5,882M	$4,201M	+40%	9M guide-implied full year $11.5–12.5B
EV realignment charges	$238M	$1,592M	−85%	YTD $3.6B

From the Q3 2026 release (20 Oct 2026, PR Newswire). Market share and sales include fleet and the China JVs; wholesale drives recognised revenue.

9.5 — Market valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM	6.1× adj.	TTM adjusted EPS $13.48; GAAP 19.0× ($4.36)
P/E on 2026 guidance	6.2×	Midpoint $13.25; ~5.7× at $76
P/E forward (vendor)	5.5×	Forward EPS $15.11 (pre-print); peer median 6.3×
Price / book	1.12×	BVPS $73.98; ~1.03× at $76
Price / sales TTM	0.38×	Peer median 0.29×
EV / EBIT-adjusted (automotive)	4.2×	Market cap less $7.3B automotive net cash, over $15.1B TTM
FCF yield / dividend yield	~17% / 0.87%	$12.0B FCF guide midpoint over $70.3B market cap

Price / sales	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	vs Peer Median
GM	$82.75	$70.3B	$186.95B	0.38×	+31%
Toyota	$194.06	$228.6B	~$328.6B	0.70×	+141%
Honda	$34.06	$44.2B	~$142.4B	0.31×	+7%
Ford	$12.18	$48.6B	$187.97B	0.26×	−10%
Stellantis	$4.29	$16.2B	~$180.5B	0.09×	−69%
Peer median	—	$46.4B	$184.2B	0.29×	—

Earnings & growth-adjusted	TTM EPS	P/E TTM	Rev Growth	PEG	Assessment
GM	$13.48 (adj.)	6.1×	+2.9%	0.19	Cheapest profitable name; buyback-led EPS growth
Toyota	$22.76	8.5×	+10.4%	0.11	Highest margins; hybrid leader
Honda	−$0.72	n/m	+13.5%	n/m	Loss on EV charges; trades below book
Ford	−$1.88	n/m	−3.8%	n/m	Loss-making TTM; 6.3× forward
Stellantis	−$8.73	n/m	+13.1%	n/m	Restructuring; 0.2× book
Peer median	—	8.5×	+11.8%	0.11	—

GM is the cheapest profitable automaker in the set on earnings and cash flow. It trades at a premium on sales only because its margins are higher than those of Ford and Stellantis. A ~17% FCF yield and a buyback authorisation worth ~31% of the company are what limit the downside inside the window.

Regime Analysis — Persistency & Volatility

of the window spent in Volatile Chop or Quiet Range: GM's moves have tended to reverse rather than extend

Currently Q3 Quiet Range, held 2 sessions; Persistency −0.087 (51st percentile), Volatility −0.094 (40th). 289 daily observations, 26 Aug 2025 – 19 Oct 2026. As of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date. Status: CURRENT.

10.1 — Regime trace

GM — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (260 daily points, oldest faint → newest bright)

Q1 Volatile trend Q2 Volatile chop Q3 Quiet range Q4 Quiet drift Current (19 Oct)

Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 26 Aug 2025 – 19 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots the latest 260 (from 7 Oct 2025). As of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 20 Oct 2026 report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std Dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	−0.0868	−0.0579	0.0480	−0.1241	0.0743	51.2	Mean-reverting; negative for most of the window, positive mainly in spring 2026
Volatility	−0.0945	0.0017	0.2891	−0.4958	0.5000	40.5	Below average; fell from +0.17 on 8 Oct to negative on 16 Oct

Currently in Q3 Quiet Range, held 2 consecutive sessions (16–19 Oct) after 11 sessions of Volatile Chop. Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not provisional. The reading predates the 20 Oct release, and an 8% gap is likely to lift Volatility. As of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.

10.3 — Regime occupancy & transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of period	Character
Q1	Volatile trend	8.3%	13–31 Mar and 20 Apr – 4 May 2026 rally legs
Q2	Volatile chop	41.9%	Oct–Nov 2025; Dec–Jan; May–Jun; Jul–Aug; 1–15 Oct 2026
Q3	Quiet range	41.5%	Sep–Oct 2025; Jan–Feb 2026; Sep 2026; since 16 Oct
Q4	Quiet drift	8.3%	Apr and May 2026 pauses; 2–3 Sep

Transition	Count	Note
Quiet range ↔ Volatile chop	17	9 into chop, 8 back; the dominant pattern
Volatile trend → Quiet drift	2	April and May 2026
Quiet drift → Quiet range / Volatile trend	3	2 to range, 1 back to trend
Volatile chop → Volatile trend	1	13 Mar 2026

Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Range had a median of +0.5% (52% positive, 110 observations), and from Volatile Chop +1.6% (56%, 110). Volatile Trend (+6.0%, 88%) and Quiet Drift (+4.0%, 67%) have only 24 observations each, below the 30-day threshold, so they are thin and not read. Unconditionally the median was +2.2% (58% positive), in a stock up 44% over the year. As of 19 Oct 2026.

Persistency moves slowly.

The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. GM's Persistency has been negative for most of the year, meaning moves have tended to reverse. That fits a gap that partly fills more than one that extends, but it describes 26 Aug 2025 – 19 Oct 2026 and is not a prediction.

Driver Exposure — Market & Sector Covariation

1.17

one-year beta to the S&P 500: unlike most names in this series, GM moves with the tape

Correlation 0.43 with the S&P 500, 0.50 with consumer discretionary, 0.60 with Ford. Sector Driver 1 explains 26.8% of variance. 1,253 observations, 21 Oct 2021 – 19 Oct 2026. Drivers as of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.

11.1 — Driver correlation table

Factor	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d (current)	Rolling Min	Rolling Max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	0.011	0.0	0.152	−0.400	0.434	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 2	0.008	0.0	−0.147	−0.259	0.378	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 3	0.004	0.0	−0.034	−0.330	0.345	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 4	0.011	0.0	0.075	−0.265	0.285	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 5	0.009	0.0	0.135	−0.416	0.256	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.517	26.8	−0.220	−0.814	−0.118	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 2	−0.048	0.2	−0.072	−0.603	0.420	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 3	−0.067	0.4	0.148	−0.496	0.492	Variable	Negative

Methodology: daily log returns of GM against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 21 Oct 2021 – 19 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1 is the dominant link (−0.52, R² 26.8%), and its rolling reading has stayed negative throughout (−0.81 to −0.12; −0.22 now). Market Driver levels show no full-window link. Drivers as of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic decomposition

Systematic 26.8%

Idiosyncratic 73.2%

Factor	Raw Beta	Standardised Beta	Share of Explained Variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	0.00001	0.007	0.02%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.32684	−0.517	99.98%

GM is a partly systematic name: a quarter of its variance comes from a stable sector factor, and it has a beta above 1 to the index. For the next 10–30 days the market and the auto group will move it as much as its own news. An index hedge would have offset part of the risk, unlike most names in this series.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against GM daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 has stayed below zero throughout, the most stable relationship in the set; Market Driver 1 has swung around zero (+0.16 on the latest plotted reading). As of 19 Oct 2026.

Performance by Market Regime

GM daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 16 Oct 2026, 1,177 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q1 Volatile Trend	172	14.6%	+32.2%	+50.5%	34.4%	1.47	52.9%	+8.97%	−8.47%
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	302	25.7%	+48.6%	+39.2%	29.8%	1.31	52.6%	+13.86%	−5.24%
Q2 Volatile Chop	417	35.4%	+19.5%	+11.4%	40.3%	0.28	55.4%	+8.54%	−9.42%
Q3 Quiet Range	286	24.3%	−29.5%	−26.5%	36.6%	−0.72	50.3%	+9.36%	−9.31%

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	237	20.1%	+62.6%	+67.7%	32.9%	2.06	52.3%	+13.86%	−5.24%
Q1 Volatile Trend	177	15.0%	+8.3%	+12.1%	32.3%	0.37	51.4%	+8.97%	−8.47%
Q2 Volatile Chop	412	35.0%	+20.0%	+11.8%	39.1%	0.30	55.8%	+8.54%	−9.42%
Q3 Quiet Range	351	29.8%	−21.7%	−16.1%	36.2%	−0.44	51.3%	+9.36%	−9.31%

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q1 Volatile Trend	143	12.1%	+36.0%	+71.8%	34.8%	2.07	52.4%	+8.97%	−5.35%
Q3 Quiet Range	339	28.8%	+17.7%	+12.9%	37.3%	0.34	53.4%	+13.86%	−9.42%
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	249	21.2%	+8.1%	+8.2%	30.7%	0.27	53.4%	+7.51%	−6.83%
Q2 Volatile Chop	446	37.9%	−4.3%	−2.5%	38.3%	−0.06	52.9%	+8.54%	−8.47%

Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded GM return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.2 — Cross-group summary grid

Group	Current Regime	Best Regime for GM	Worst Regime	Cum. Return in Current	Sharpe in Current	Sharpe Spread	Days in Current
US market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	+48.6%	1.31	2.19	31
SP500	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q3 Quiet Range	+62.6%	2.06	2.50	31
Global market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	+8.1%	0.27	2.13	25
Technology	Q3 Quiet Range	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	−22.0%	−0.39	5.99	104
Financials	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	+35.3%	2.23	2.63	19
Energy	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	Q4 Quiet Drift	−13.7%	−0.31	3.55	80
Utilities	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q3 Quiet Range	Q1 Volatile Trend	+7.5%	0.25	3.52	25
Europe	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	Q1 Volatile Trend	−11.0%	−0.29	2.95	24
Gold	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q3 Quiet Range	Q4 Quiet Drift	+12.7%	0.19	2.03	52
VIX Near	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	+38.6%	2.33	3.36	34
VIX Mid	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q2 Volatile Chop	+51.3%	1.28	1.69	115
Bonds near	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	+8.7%	0.42	1.12	3
Bonds mid	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	−25.6%	−0.41	3.80	21
Bonds long	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q4 Quiet Drift	+38.3%	0.67	0.79	14

All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning GM is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.3 — Sensitivity callouts

Most sensitive to the Technology regime (Sharpe spread 5.99, the widest in the grid). Technology has been in Quiet Range for 104 sessions, GM's worst regime for that group (Sharpe −0.39). With Technology there, GM's 21-day forward median has been −1.2% (46% positive). Its best Technology regime is Volatile Trend.

What has historically followed the current US market regime over 10–30 days. In the 282 days the US market was in Quiet Drift with a full 21-day window, GM's 21-day forward return had a median of +3.7% and was positive 64.2% of the time. Unconditionally, the median was +1.3% and positive 54.5% of the time. This is history, not a forecast.

A broadly favourable configuration. 10 of 14 groups sit in a regime with a positive GM Sharpe, and four in its best: SP500 Quiet Drift (2.06), Financials Volatile Trend (2.23), VIX Mid (1.28) and VIX Near Quiet Drift (2.33). With VIX Near in Quiet Drift, GM's 21-day forward median has been +7.7% (82% positive, 124 observations).

The exceptions are Technology, bonds, Energy and Europe. Technology Quiet Range (−0.39) and Bonds mid Volatile Trend (−0.41, spread 3.80) are GM's worst regimes for those groups; Energy (−0.31) and Europe (−0.29) Volatile Trend are also negative. Rising yields feed auto-loan rates and GM Financial funding costs.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 16 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days; where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations, and single earnings days (+13.9% best, −9.4% worst) weigh heavily on the buckets. Market regime series as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.

News & Market Narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
20 Oct 26	GM releases Q3 results, updates guidance; Board approves new $20B share repurchase (PR Newswire)	Positive
20 Oct 26	GM's core profit rises 22% on strength of pickup-truck business (Detroit News)	Positive
20 Oct 26	Shares fall ~5–8% as full-year EPS midpoint trails consensus (StockStory; Investing.com via INDmoney)	Negative
20 Oct 26	International EBIT −88%, China equity income −60%, GM Financial −17% (release)	Negative
20 Oct 26	Adjusted automotive FCF guidance raised to $11.5–12.5B (release)	Positive
12 Oct 26	JPMorgan trims its target to $110 from $120, keeps Overweight (Yahoo Finance)	Neutral
6 Oct 26	Goldman Sachs raises its target to $112, Buy (Yahoo Finance)	Positive
1 Oct 26	Q3 US sales 671k, down ~6%; share 16.1% (company sales release)	Negative
3 Aug 26	Executives sell after the post-Q2 rally; CEO Barra sells $37.7M on 28 Jul (Form 4)	Negative
29 Jul 26	Shares reach a $91.85 intraday high	Positive
21 Jul 26	Q2 adjusted EPS $3.57 vs $3.19; guidance raised; $2.3B of EV charges (XTB)	Positive
27 Jan 26	FY2025 results; new $6B buyback; dividend raised 20% to $0.18 (company release)	Positive

12 rows, newest first. Sources: company releases, Detroit News, StockStory, INDmoney, XTB, Yahoo Finance rating and insider feeds; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "EV write-downs and tariffs" (late 2025) to "truck profits and buybacks" (summer 2026) to "how much is left for 2027" (now).

Company Snapshot

Field	General Motors Company	Peer context
Legal name	General Motors Company	—
Exchange / IPO	NYSE: GM · listed November 2010 after the 2009 restructuring; founded 1908	Ford NYSE; Toyota, Honda and Stellantis US ADRs or listings
Domicile	United States (Delaware; headquarters Detroit)	Japan (Toyota, Honda), Netherlands (Stellantis)
Sector / industry	Consumer Cyclical · Auto manufacturers (cars, trucks, crossovers, EVs) plus captive finance (GM Financial)	Ford the closest US peer
Market cap	$70.3B (849M shares × $82.75); ~$64.5B at ~$76	Second to Toyota ($228.6B)
Employees	~156,000 (vendor)	Fewest in the set; Toyota ~368,000
TTM revenue	$186.95B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026)	Similar to Ford ($188.0B)
Revenue model	Wholesale vehicle sales to dealers (automotive $45.7B in Q3) plus GM Financial lending and leasing ($4.3B); software and services (OnStar, Super Cruise)	All peers run captive finance arms
Key differentiators	US full-size truck and SUV franchise (31% US truck share); North America margin 8.7%; aggressive buybacks (share count −29% since 2023); broadest US EV line-up	Toyota leads on hybrids and margin
CIK	0001467858	—
Website	gm.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · cheap and buying back, guide capped

GM's Q3 was a good quarter: EBIT-adjusted +22%, a North America margin of 8.7%, free cash flow +40%, and a new $20B buyback on top of a completed $6B. The market sold it ~8% pre-market because the profit midpoint did not move, the EPS midpoint trails consensus, the implied Q4 is soft, and everything outside North America weakened. At under six times earnings with a ~17% FCF yield, much of that is already priced, and GM's mean-reverting regime and post-print history both lean toward partial recovery. Its above-1 market beta means the index matters too. The view turns bullish if Ford's print and the market hold and GM reclaims $82.75 to close the gap. It turns bearish if GM breaks the $74.22 July low.

Volatility Farm

1 · Daily prices and volumes for GM, F, STLA, TM, HMC, the consumer discretionary ETF and the S&P 500 ETF from the Yahoo Finance chart feed (used in place of the Massive API for bulk history). Last completed session 19 Oct 2026 close; 20 Oct pre-market indication at 08:10 ET. Peer market caps and TTM ratios are vendor data (Yahoo Finance) to Jun 2026; yen and euro figures converted at 158.1 JPY/USD and 1.122 USD/EUR.
2 · Financial statements and operating data from GM's Q3 2026 release (20 Oct 2026, PR Newswire), the Q2 2026 release (via XTB) and the FY2025 release (via Finviz). Consensus from StockStory and Yahoo Finance; ratings, targets and insider data from Yahoo Finance and SEC Form 4; additional context from INDmoney and the Detroit News.
3 · Persistency and Volatility from the Trader workbook tab Individual regimes daily (26 Aug 2025 – 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind). Market regimes from Market regimes daily (to 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind). Market and Sector Drivers from the Market and Sector driver tabs (to 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind). Freshness status: CURRENT.
4 · Derived rather than reported: Q2 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 EBIT-adjusted; implied Q4 2026 EBIT-adjusted; gross margins; TTM revenue, EPS and net income; market cap, P/E, P/S, P/B, PEG, EV/EBIT-adjusted, FCF yield and book value per share; every ratio in 9.1–9.4 except reported ROE and ROIC-adjusted; peer net cash, asset turnover, revenue per employee, currency conversions, medians and ranks; insider totals and buyback value; post-earnings 21-session moves; forward-return statistics and cumulative regime returns in sections 10 and 12; correlations and betas against peers and the S&P 500.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 20 Oct 2026 (30 Oct – 19 Nov 2026). Regime and driver statistics describe their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.