Close 21 Oct 2026
$156.84
Fiscal Q1 2027 organic sales rose 4%, led by 2.4% volume growth, and core EPS of $2.00 beat the $1.88 consensus. P&G kept full-year guidance (core EPS ~$7.00, organic sales +1–3%) even as the commodity headwind grew to $1.4B from $1.0B. But core EPS rose only 1%, core gross margin fell 150 bps, and the stock ran from $145 to $159 in the two weeks before the print. Shares were ~3% higher pre-market at ~$162, above the $162 mean target. Over the next 10–30 days PG trades on its own and against the market; the Colgate, Clorox and Kimberly-Clark reads decide whether the staples rotation holds.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $156.84 on 21 Oct after rising 10% from $144.91 (2 Oct) to $159.35 (16 Oct) in a staples rally (Colgate +7%, Church & Dwight +9%, Kimberly-Clark +8% over 30 days). +9.4% YTD and −6.2% from the $167.25 high of 27 Feb. About +3% pre-market (~$162) on the release. Post-print 21-day moves have been mixed: three up, three down in the last six. | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Net sales $23.28B, +4%, against $22.80B consensus; organic +4% (volume +2.4%, mix +1.1%, price +0.4%). Beauty +5%, Grooming +5%, Fabric & Home Care +5%, Health Care +3%, Baby, Feminine & Family Care +3% organic. Full-year organic guide held at +1–3%; all-in sales now +2–4% with Thorne. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Core EPS $2.00 (+1%; flat currency-neutral) against $1.88. Reported gross margin 49.8% (−160 bps), with commodities −140 bps and reinvestment −140 bps against productivity +120 bps. Operating margin 25.5% (−70 bps), with SG&A −90 bps of sales. Net earnings $4.73B, flat. | Mixed |
| Valuation vs peers | 22.4× the ~$7.00 FY27 core EPS guide at $156.84 (23.1× at ~$162), against a 17.2× peer forward median. EV/EBITDA 16.1× against 15.4×. Dividend yield 2.78%. Pre-market trades at the $162.13 mean target. | Bearish |
| Platform KPIs | Organic volume +2.4%, with Fabric & Home Care +4.3% and Beauty +2.2%; Health Care −2.9% and Grooming −0.4%. Gross productivity savings of 250 bps on operating margin. Free cash flow productivity 93%; operating cash flow $5.77B (+7%). | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Cash $15.4B (raised ahead of the $3.8B Thorne acquisition, closed 1 Oct); debt $38.9B, $17.0B of it current; net debt $23.6B. Q1 returned $3.9B ($2.6B dividends, $1.3B buybacks); FY27 plans are over $10B of dividends and ~$5B of buybacks. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend: Persistency +0.041 (72nd percentile), Volatility +0.382 (88th). Held 7 sessions since 13 Oct. On the boundary: Persistency is within 0.05 of the axis, so the call is provisional and a return to Quiet Drift or Volatile Chop is close. As of 21 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag). | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 97.4% idiosyncratic. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is −0.03 (beta −0.05); with Colgate 0.74, the staples sector 0.72, Church & Dwight 0.67 and Unilever 0.66. PG trades with staples and independently of the index. As of 21 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | Rotation unwind. The 10% pre-print run was sector-wide; if Colgate (30 Oct), Clorox (2 Nov) or Kimberly-Clark (5 Nov) disappoint, or if the market rotates back to growth, the staples bid fades. Over the 268-day regime window PG's unconditional 21-day median was −0.9%. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | Colgate and Church & Dwight (30 Oct, just before), Clorox (2 Nov) and Kimberly-Clark (5 Nov) inside the window. FOMC (27–28 Oct) and oil and freight prices drive the commodity narrative. The next P&G report (~late Jan) is outside. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed. The quarter was better than feared: volumes grew, sales beat by $0.5B and guidance held through a 40% larger commodity hit. But earnings barely grew, margins fell, and the stock had priced a good print before it came. With a favourable market map, a regime on the boundary and the price at its targets, the evidence supports a range more than a breakout. Composite 6.9 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (1 – 21 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind. The release came before the open on 22 Oct; the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data (~$162 at 08:15 ET). Consensus figures are LSEG via Reuters; peer moves are 30-day changes to 21 Oct.
P&G is growing volume again: 2.4% organic volume growth, led by its largest segment, Fabric & Home Care. The cost of that growth is visible in the margin, and the full-year guide leaves EPS up only ~1.5%. For the next month the question is whether the market keeps paying a premium multiple for volume, or goes back to measuring P&G by its earnings.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (7.0). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.63 + 1.10 + 1.44 + 0.96 + 0.70 + 0.65 + 0.45 = 6.9 (6.93).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staples rotation | Market | Sector-wide 6–9% run-up could reverse | Yes |
| Colgate / Clorox / Kimberly-Clark prints | Competitive | Volume, pricing and commodity read-across | Yes |
| Valuation at target | Market | 23× forward EPS; at the mean target | Possible |
| Energy and freight costs | Macro | Commodity headwind raised to $1.4B | Possible |
| Regime turn | Market | Boundary reading; chop has the weakest history | Possible |
| Consumer trade-down | Structural | Private label and value channels | Structural |
| FX and tariffs | Macro | $50M FX headwind; tariff recoveries in margin | Structural |
| Thorne integration | Strategic | New supplements category | Structural |
P&G's business carries little event risk inside a month. The stock carries more: it rallied with its sector into the print, it trades at its targets, and three peers will report before mid-November. The risk is a re-rating of the group, not a problem at P&G.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 (Sep-26) | 22 Oct 2026 | $23,276M | +2.1% | $1.97 (core $2.00) | +6.4% | Pre-mkt ~+3% |
| Q4 FY26 (Jun-26) | 29 Jul 2026 | $21,204M | n/a | $1.26 (core $1.43) | +1.6% | −1.9% |
| Q3 FY26 (Mar-26) | 24 Apr 2026 | $21,235M | n/a | $1.63 (core $1.59) | +2.2% | +1.7% |
| Q2 FY26 (Dec-25) | 22 Jan 2026 | $22,208M | n/a | $1.78 (core $1.88) | +1.3% | +2.6% |
| Q1 FY26 (Sep-25) | 24 Oct 2025 | $22,386M | n/a | $1.95 (core $1.99) | +4.9% | +0.2% |
| Q4 FY25 (Jun-25) | 29 Jul 2025 | $20,889M | n/a | $1.48 (core $1.48) | +4.1% | −0.3% |
Reports come before the open, so the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. The Q1 FY27 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing (~$162 pre-market at 08:15 ET). EPS surprise compares core EPS with consensus: LSEG ($1.88) for Q1 FY27, the vendor elsewhere. Revenue consensus is LSEG ($22.80B), shown only for Q1 FY27. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +0.2%, −3.6%, +10.2%, −3.5%, −2.0%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | n/c | 100% (8/8) | Annual organic sales and core EPS ranges |
| PG (since 2021) | — | 92% (22/24) | Beats typically 1–5% |
| Colgate-Palmolive | n/c | 100% (8/8) | Annual organic and EPS |
| Kimberly-Clark | n/c | 88% (7/8) | Annual organic and EPS |
| Clorox | n/c | 75% (6/8) | Annual sales and EPS |
| Church & Dwight | n/c | 75% (6/8) | Quarterly and annual |
| Unilever | n/c | 63% (5/8) | Annual underlying growth |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 75% | — |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| FY27 organic sales | +1–3% | Maintained; includes 30–50 bps of discontinuations |
| FY27 all-in sales | +2–4% | Updated for Thorne (closed 1 Oct 2026) |
| FY27 core EPS | $6.89–7.11 | Maintained; midpoint $7.00 (+~1.5%) |
| FY27 diluted EPS growth | +1–5% | On FY26 $6.62 |
| Headwinds (after tax) | $1.9B / $0.79 a share | Commodities $1.4B (from $1.0B), interest $300M, other $150M, FX $50M |
| Cash return | >$10B dividends; ~$5B buybacks | FCF productivity 85–90% |
| Next quarterly report | ~late Jan 2027 | Outside the window |
P&G beats by small margins almost every quarter, so the size of this beat (6% on core EPS) was larger than usual. Holding guidance through a $400M larger commodity hit implies better underlying delivery for the rest of the year. The next report and any guide change fall outside the window.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 (print) | Reuters / StockStory reads | Bullish | Sales and EPS beat; guidance held despite a larger commodity hit; shares +2% pre-market |
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Citigroup, Evercore ISI | Bullish | Citi Buy, $170 → $180; Evercore upgraded to Outperform at $166 |
| Oct 2026 (pre-print) | RBC, TD Cowen | Mixed | RBC Outperform $166; TD Cowen Hold $150 |
| Jul – Aug 2026 | HSBC, Argus | Bearish | HSBC downgraded to Hold, $182 → $149; Argus downgraded to Hold |
| Jul 2026 | JPMorgan, BofA, Barclays | Neutral | Overweight $162; Buy $166; Equal-Weight $152 |
| Consensus | 23 analysts | Neutral | "Buy"; mean target $162.13, median $163, range $143–186 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus (retrieved 22 Oct 2026, pre-market); Reuters via AOL and StockStory earnings reports (22 Oct 2026). Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 11 non-employee directors | Annual awards | 1,438 each | — | — | Routine |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Andre Schulten, CFO | Sale | 3,914 | $145.34 | $569k | Small; after the 1 Oct award |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Susan Street Whaley, Paul Gama (officers) | Sale | 4,594 | $145.34 | $668k | Small; same-day pattern |
| 1 Oct 2026 | CEO, CFO and three officers | Annual awards | 46,981 | — | — | Routine; CEO 16,065 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Six directors | Dividend-equivalent units | 52–359 | — | — | Routine |
| 20–24 Aug 2026 | Officers | Sales | 9,455 | ~$143–145 | ~$1.36M | Small |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed. Officer sales from August to October were small (~$2.6M in total) and followed annual award vesting; there were no open-market purchases. The company bought back $1.25B of stock in Q1 alone. An 8-K on 16 Oct reported annual-meeting voting results.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Jan 2027 | P&G (expected) | Q2 FY27 results | No |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Kimberly-Clark | Q3 results; Baby and Family Care read (0.54 correlation) | Yes |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Clorox | Q1 FY27 results after the close; Home Care and commodity read | Yes |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Colgate-Palmolive, Church & Dwight | Q3 results; the most-correlated peer (0.74); Oral Care and household volumes | Just before |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; rates and the defensive-sector bid | Just before |
| 22 Oct 2026 | P&G release | Q1 FY27: organic +4%, core EPS $2.00; guidance held; commodity headwind raised to $1.4B | No, sets the base |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Market data | Shares reach $159.35, up 10% from $144.91 on 2 Oct in a staples rally | No, sets the base |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Target raised to $180 from $170, Buy | No, sets the base |
| 1 Oct 2026 | P&G | $3.8B Thorne acquisition completed (announced 4 Aug) | No, sets the base |
| 29 Jul 2026 | P&G release | Q4 FY26: core EPS $1.43; FY27 guide set at ~$7.00; stock −1.9% | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 22 Oct 2026 report date (1 – 21 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Peer dates come from the vendor earnings calendar. Items marked "expected" follow prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.
Just before: the FOMC (27–28 Oct) and Colgate and Church & Dwight (30 Oct), the closest reads on household volumes and pricing. 2 Nov: Clorox, on Home Care and commodity costs. 5 Nov: Kimberly-Clark, on Baby and Family Care. P&G has no scheduled event of its own in the window.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | $156.84 | $364.3B | $87.92B | 4.14× | +4.0% | Buy · $162.13 | Positive |
| Unilever (UL) | $64.40 | $138.7B | ~$56.8B | 2.44× | +0.5% | Buy · $71.55 | Neutral |
| Colgate-Palmolive (CL) | $93.40 | $74.5B | $21.05B | 3.54× | +4.9% | Buy · $98.15 | Neutral |
| Kimberly-Clark (KMB) | $106.64 | $35.5B | $16.58B | 2.14× | +0.6% | Buy · $114.80 | Mixed |
| Church & Dwight (CHD) | $105.00 | $24.9B | $6.23B | 4.00× | +1.6% | Buy · $104.63 | Neutral |
| Clorox (CLX) | $84.77 | $10.3B | $6.72B | 1.53× | −2.0% | Hold · $96.35 | Negative |
| Peer median | — | $35.5B | $16.58B | 2.44× | +0.6% | — | — |
Prices are at the 21 Oct 2026 close; PG was ~$162 pre-market on 22 Oct. PG revenue is TTM to Sep 2026 from company releases. Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun 2026. Unilever revenue is converted from euros at 1.122 USD/EUR (marked ~). Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | $166 | $166 | 20 Oct 2026 | +5.8% | Outperform | ► Maintained |
| Citigroup | $180 | $170 | 14 Oct 2026 | +14.8% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Evercore ISI | $166 | $161 | 6 Oct 2026 | +5.8% | Outperform (upgrade) | ▲ Raised |
| RBC Capital | $166 | $167 | 6 Oct 2026 | +5.8% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| TD Cowen | $150 | $150 | 30 Sep 2026 | −4.4% | Hold | ► Maintained |
| HSBC | $149 | $182 | 30 Jul 2026 | −5.0% | Hold (downgrade) | ▼ Lowered |
| Citigroup | $170 | $181 | 30 Jul 2026 | +8.4% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| Barclays | $152 | $146 | 21 Jul 2026 | −3.1% | Equal-Weight | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan | $162 | $164 | 16 Jul 2026 | +3.3% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
| BofA Securities | $166 | $170 | 10 Jul 2026 | +5.8% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $156.84 close on 21 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Argus also downgraded to Hold on 7 Aug (no target logged). October actions turned positive (an Evercore upgrade and a Citi raise) after a summer of cuts. No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $156.84 |
| Consensus target | $162.13 |
| Median target | $163.00 |
| High target | $186.00 |
| Low target | $143.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +3.4% |
| Implied downside to low | −8.8% |
| Analysts contributing | 23 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 22 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. At the ~$162 pre-market level the stock trades at the consensus target.
| $143 |
| $162 |
| $163 |
| $186 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 (Jun-25) | $20,889M | n/d | n/d | $1.48 | 49.1% | $5,456M | 20.8% | Beat | −0.3% |
| Q1 FY26 (Sep-25) | $22,386M | +7.2% | n/d | $1.95 | 51.4% | $6,992M | 26.2% | Beat | +0.2% |
| Q2 FY26 (Dec-25) | $22,208M | −0.8% | n/d | $1.78 | 51.2% | $6,443M | 24.2% | Beat | +2.6% |
| Q3 FY26 (Mar-26) | $21,235M | −4.4% | n/d | $1.63 | 49.5% | $5,997M | 21.6% | Beat | +1.7% |
| Q4 FY26 (Jun-26) | $21,204M | −0.1% | +1.5% | $1.26 | 48.5% | $4,981M | 18.6% | Beat | −1.9% |
| Q1 FY27 (Sep-26) | $23,276M | +9.8% | +4.0% | $1.97 | 49.8% | ~$6,747M | 25.5% | Beat | Pending |
Margin is the GAAP operating margin. The EBITDA column is vendor-reported EBITDA (unadjusted); Q1 FY27 is derived as operating income plus depreciation and amortisation (marked ~). YoY is shown where the year-ago quarter is in the data set. vs Est. compares core EPS with consensus. P&G's fiscal year ends in June.
Q1 FY27 was the largest quarter of sales in the six shown. Operating margin is seasonal, highest in the September quarter, and 70 bps below the same quarter last year. The June 2026 quarter (18.6%) was the low point.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 30 Jun 2026 | 30 Jun 2025 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 1.5–3.0 target · below by design; supplier terms fund working capital |
| Quick ratio | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.49 | ≥1.0 · below; normal for consumer staples |
| Cash ratio | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.27 | Cash $15.4B, raised ahead of Thorne (closed 1 Oct) |
Derived from reported balance sheets. P&G runs negative working capital: accounts payable of $17.1B exceed receivables and inventories combined ($15.1B).
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG (Sep 26) | 0.72 | −$23.6B | Strong (AA- class credit) |
| Church & Dwight (Jun 26) | 1.15 | −$2.17B | Adequate |
| Colgate-Palmolive (Jun 26) | 1.03 | −$6.40B | Adequate |
| Kimberly-Clark (Jun 26) | 0.91 | −$5.58B | Adequate |
| Unilever (Jun 26) | 0.74 | ~−$29.4B | Adequate |
| Clorox (Jun 26) | 0.66 | −$5.46B | Tight |
| Peer median | 0.91 | −$5.58B | — |
| Metric | 30 Sep 2026 | 30 Jun 2026 | 30 Jun 2025 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.68 | Lower is safer · moderate; up on Thorne pre-funding |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.28 | <0.5 conservative · passed |
| Interest coverage | ~22× (FY26) | 22.5× | 22.5× | >2.5 healthy · passed |
| Debt service coverage | 1.35 (TTM) | n/d | n/d | >1.25 healthy · passed; $17.0B of current debt is mostly commercial paper that rolls over |
Debt $38.9B (Sep 26: $17.0B current, $21.9B long-term), $34.1B (Jun 26), $35.5B (Jun 25, vendor). Coverage is operating income over interest expense (FY26 $19.7B / $877M; FY25 $20.5B / $907M). DSCR is TTM EBITDA (~$24.2B) over interest plus current debt.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | TTM | Q1 FY26 | FY2026 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 49.8% | 49.8% | 51.4% | 50.2% | 51.2% | ▼ |
| Operating margin | 25.5% | 22.6% | 26.2% | 22.7% | 24.3% | ▼ |
| Net margin | 20.3% | 18.2% | 21.2% | 18.4% | 19.0% | ▼ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~29.0% | 27.5% | 31.2% | 28.1% | 28.4% | ▼ |
| Return on assets | 3.6% (q) | 12.4% | 3.8% (q) | 12.7% | 12.9% | → |
| Return on equity | 8.6% (q) | 29.3% | 9.1% (q) | 30.2% | 31.2% | ▼ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 18.2% × 0.66 × 2.41 | — | 18.4% × 0.69 × 2.36 | — | Stable; margin edging down |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios are derived from reported figures. TTM combines Q2 FY26 – Q1 FY27. EBITDA margins use vendor EBITDA (unadjusted); Q1 FY27 is derived. Core operating margin fell 80 bps year on year.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG (TTM) | 49.8% | 22.6% | 18.2% | 27.5% | 29.3% | 1 of 6 |
| Colgate-Palmolive | 60.4% | 21.0% | 9.7% | 23.7% | n/m | 2 of 6 |
| Unilever | 47.1% | 20.3% | 18.3% | 21.5% | 31.9% | 3 of 6 |
| Kimberly-Clark | 37.6% | 19.0% | 11.8% | 21.0% | n/m | 4 of 6 |
| Church & Dwight | 45.6% | 18.1% | 12.0% | 21.8% | 17.0% | 5 of 6 |
| Clorox | 42.3% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 17.0% | n/m | 6 of 6 |
| Peer median | 45.6% | 19.0% | 11.8% | 21.5% | n/m | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures, and peer EBITDA margins are reported EBITDA. Rank is by operating margin, because Colgate (267%), Kimberly-Clark (105%) and Clorox (164%) report ROE inflated by very low book equity (n/m).
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.66 | 0.69 (FY26) | Revenue over latest total assets ($133.1B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$845k | ~$837k (FY26) | On ~104,000 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q1 YoY) | +1% | — | Core +1%; currency-neutral core flat |
| Organic sales growth (Q1) | +4% | — | Volume +2.4%, mix +1.1%, price +0.4% |
| Dividend yield | 2.78% | — | ~$4.35 a year; over $10B in FY27 |
| FCF productivity (Q1) | 93% | — | FY27 guide 85–90% |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 0.66 | $845k | ~104,000 | +1% | 2.78% | 2 of 6 |
| Colgate-Palmolive | 1.25 | $626k | 33,600 | −7% | 2.27% | 1 of 6 |
| Church & Dwight | n/d | $1.12M | 5,550 | +6% | 1.17% | 3 of 6 |
| Kimberly-Clark | 0.89 | $461k | 36,000 | −32% | 4.80% | 4 of 6 |
| Unilever | 0.66 | ~$606k | 93,731 | −6% | 3.30% | 5 of 6 |
| Clorox | 0.86 | $730k | 9,200 | −51% | 5.90% | 6 of 6 |
| Peer median | 0.88 | $626k | 33,600 | −7% | 3.30% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived; Church & Dwight assets not available). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Q1 FY26 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabric & Home Care sales | $8,205M | — | +4% (org. +5%) | Volume +4.3%; pretax +4% |
| Baby, Feminine & Family Care sales | $5,322M | — | +3% (org. +3%) | Volume +2.3%, price −1.2%; pretax −4% |
| Beauty sales | $4,410M | — | +6% (org. +5%) | Volume +2.2%, mix +2.5%; pretax +1% |
| Health Care sales | $3,318M | — | +3% (org. +3%) | Volume −2.9%, price +2.8%; pretax +10% |
| Grooming sales | $1,889M | — | +4% (org. +5%) | Price +3.5%; pretax +6% |
| Core gross margin | — | — | −150 bps | Commodities −140, reinvestment −140, mix −50; productivity +120, tariffs +50 |
| Cash returned | $3.9B | $3.8B | +2% | Dividends $2.6B; buybacks $1.25B |
From the Q1 FY27 release (22 Oct 2026, SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1). Segment growth is reported net sales change; organic growth from the release. Year-ago segment sales are not reproduced in the release table.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 23.6× | GAAP TTM EPS $6.64; 22.7× core ($6.90); peer median 21.0× |
| P/E on FY27 guidance | 22.4× | Core EPS midpoint $7.00; 23.1× at ~$162 |
| P/E forward (vendor) | 21.2× | Forward EPS $7.39; peer median 17.2× |
| Price / book | 6.6× | Equity $55.3B |
| Price / sales TTM | 4.14× | Peer median 2.44× |
| EV / EBITDA TTM | 16.1× | EV $387.9B over ~$24.2B; peer median 15.4× |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | ~4.1% / 2.78% | FY27 FCF at 85–90% productivity on ~$16.9B net earnings (derived) |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | $156.84 | $364.3B | $87.92B | 4.14× | +70% |
| Church & Dwight | $105.00 | $24.9B | $6.23B | 4.00× | +64% |
| Colgate-Palmolive | $93.40 | $74.5B | $21.05B | 3.54× | +45% |
| Unilever | $64.40 | $138.7B | ~$56.8B | 2.44× | 0% |
| Kimberly-Clark | $106.64 | $35.5B | $16.58B | 2.14× | −12% |
| Clorox | $84.77 | $10.3B | $6.72B | 1.53× | −37% |
| Peer median | — | $35.5B | $16.58B | 2.44× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | $6.64 | 23.6× | +4.0% | ~15.7 | Premium for quality; EPS growth ~1.5% |
| Church & Dwight | $3.12 | 33.7× | +1.6% | 5.4 | Highest multiple; brand roll-up |
| Colgate-Palmolive | $2.54 | 36.8× | +4.9% | n/m | Depressed GAAP EPS; 22.9× forward |
| Kimberly-Clark | $5.07 | 21.0× | +0.6% | n/m | Restructuring; 14.4× forward |
| Clorox | $4.81 | 17.6× | −2.0% | n/m | ERP disruption; 13.8× forward |
| Unilever | $4.95 | 13.0× | +0.5% | n/m | Ice-cream separation; 17.2× forward |
| Peer median | — | 21.0× | +0.6% | n/m | — |
P&G trades at a premium to its peers on every multiple except trailing P/E, which is flattered by peers' depressed GAAP earnings. The premium is earned by the highest operating margin and the best volume growth in the group, but at ~1.5% guided EPS growth it leaves the stock dependent on sentiment toward staples.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 28 Aug 2025 – 21 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots the latest 260 (from 9 Oct 2025). As of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 22 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.0411 | 0.0150 | 0.0462 | −0.1101 | 0.1232 | 71.6 | Mildly trend-persistent; positive since 23 Mar, but close to zero |
| Volatility | 0.3824 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.5000 | 88.2 | Elevated; up from −0.35 on 8 Oct during the pre-print rally |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 7 consecutive sessions (13–21 Oct) after 18 sessions of Quiet Drift. Persistency sits within 0.05 of the axis, so the reading is on the boundary between Volatile Trend and Volatile Chop and the call is provisional. The reading predates the 22 Oct release. As of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 20.1% | Mar–Apr and Jun–Jul 2026; short May legs; since 13 Oct |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 30.1% | Sep–Oct 2025; Dec 2025 – Mar 2026 decline |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 19.4% | Sep and Oct–Dec 2025; January |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 30.4% | 13 Jul – 14 Sep (45 sessions); 17 Sep – 12 Oct |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile trend ↔ Quiet drift | 10 | 5 each way; the 2026 pattern |
| Quiet range ↔ Volatile chop | 6 | 3 each way; the 2025 pattern |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 1 | 23 Mar 2026: Persistency turns positive |
| Quiet drift ↔ Quiet range | 2 | Two-session dip on 15–16 Sep |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Drift had a median of +0.7% (59% positive, 74 observations); from Volatile Trend −0.5% (41%, 51); from Quiet Range −1.8% (25%, 56); and from Volatile Chop −2.2% (32%, 87). Unconditionally the median was −0.9% (40% positive), in a stock up 3% over the year. As of 21 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Persistency has been positive since March but has stayed close to zero, so PG's trends have been weak. Its best forward history has come from Quiet Drift, the calm state it has alternated with, not from the volatile state it is in now. These statistics describe 28 Aug 2025 – 21 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.031 | 0.1 | 0.113 | −0.336 | 0.366 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.004 | 0.0 | −0.028 | −0.300 | 0.410 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | −0.018 | 0.0 | −0.200 | −0.364 | 0.428 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.038 | 0.1 | 0.118 | −0.423 | 0.418 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.034 | 0.1 | −0.247 | −0.411 | 0.316 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.159 | 2.5 | −0.100 | −0.650 | 0.413 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.012 | 0.0 | −0.185 | −0.458 | 0.479 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.042 | 0.2 | 0.064 | −0.459 | 0.306 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of PG against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 25 Oct 2021 – 21 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. No driver explains more than 2.5% of variance; Sector Driver 1's rolling reading has ranged from −0.65 to +0.41 and is −0.10 now. Drivers as of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00002 | 0.030 | 3.4% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.05047 | −0.159 | 96.6% |
PG is an idiosyncratic name on the drivers, but in practice it trades as part of the staples group (0.72 correlation with the sector). For the next 10–30 days the index will not decide the month; Colgate, Clorox and Kimberly-Clark, and the flows into defensives, will.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against PG daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Neither has held a stable sign; on the latest plotted reading Market Driver 1 is +0.10 and Sector Driver 1 is −0.12. As of 21 Oct 2026.
PG daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 21 Oct 2026, 1,180 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 70), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 305 | 25.8% | +19.0% | +15.4% | 15.4% | 1.00 | 56.1% | +4.06% | −2.89% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 285 | 24.2% | −1.7% | −1.5% | 17.9% | −0.08 | 50.5% | +3.32% | −4.96% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 172 | 14.6% | −3.1% | −4.5% | 17.2% | −0.26 | 50.6% | +4.01% | −3.55% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 418 | 35.4% | −13.7% | −8.5% | 21.2% | −0.40 | 51.2% | +4.18% | −6.43% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 240 | 20.3% | +18.3% | +19.3% | 15.6% | 1.24 | 57.5% | +4.06% | −2.89% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 350 | 29.7% | +5.4% | +3.9% | 17.4% | 0.22 | 52.0% | +3.32% | −4.96% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 177 | 15.0% | +0.8% | +1.2% | 17.4% | 0.07 | 52.0% | +4.01% | −3.55% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 413 | 35.0% | −22.2% | −14.2% | 21.1% | −0.67 | 49.4% | +4.18% | −6.43% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 252 | 21.4% | +20.2% | +20.2% | 14.2% | 1.43 | 55.2% | +4.06% | −2.79% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.1% | +3.9% | +7.0% | 18.0% | 0.39 | 56.6% | +4.01% | −3.55% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 338 | 28.6% | −3.4% | −2.6% | 18.3% | −0.14 | 52.4% | +3.32% | −6.38% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 447 | 37.9% | −18.9% | −11.1% | 20.8% | −0.54 | 49.0% | +4.18% | −6.43% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded PG return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for PG | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +19.0% | 1.00 | 1.40 | 34 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +18.3% | 1.24 | 1.91 | 34 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +20.2% | 1.43 | 1.97 | 28 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +7.3% | 0.23 | 3.26 | 107 |
| Financials | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +3.9% | 0.19 | 2.44 | 1 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | −15.2% | −0.58 | 1.60 | 83 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | +12.8% | 0.82 | 1.41 | 28 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +8.8% | 0.45 | 1.67 | 26 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | +1.3% | 0.04 | 0.64 | 55 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +21.4% | 2.51 | 2.90 | 37 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +9.8% | 0.49 | 2.42 | 118 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +10.9% | 0.90 | 2.59 | 6 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | −0.3% | −0.01 | 1.37 | 24 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | −25.4% | −0.91 | 1.81 | 17 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning PG is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 21 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days; where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations, and a favourable Sharpe map has coexisted with flat forward returns for PG. Market regime series as of 21 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 26 | P&G announces Q1 FY27 results: net and organic sales +4%, core EPS $2.00; maintains guidance (company release) | Positive |
| 22 Oct 26 | P&G flags bigger hit to annual profit from higher commodity costs, beats revenue estimates (Reuters via AOL) | Mixed |
| 22 Oct 26 | Expects an 11% drag on core earnings growth, yet keeps its forecast (StockTitan) | Mixed |
| 22 Oct 26 | Procter & Gamble exceeds expectations; shares +1.9% after the report (StockStory) | Positive |
| 22 Oct 26 | Core gross margin −150 bps on commodities and reinvestment (release) | Negative |
| 16 Oct 26 | Shares close at $159.35 after a 10% two-week staples rally | Positive |
| 14 Oct 26 | Citigroup raises its target to $180, Buy (Yahoo Finance) | Positive |
| 6 Oct 26 | Evercore ISI upgrades to Outperform, $166 (Yahoo Finance) | Positive |
| 1 Oct 26 | $3.8B Thorne acquisition closes (company) | Neutral |
| 4 Aug 26 | P&G agrees to buy supplements maker Thorne for $3.8B in cash (WVXU, Nutritional Outlook) | Neutral |
| 30 Jul 26 | HSBC downgrades to Hold, cuts target to $149 from $182 (Yahoo Finance) | Negative |
| 29 Jul 26 | Q4 FY26 results; FY27 core EPS guided to ~$7.00; stock −1.9% | Negative |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1), Reuters via AOL, StockTitan, StockStory, WVXU, Nutritional Outlook, Yahoo Finance rating log; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "slow-growth staples and a soft FY27 guide" (summer) to "volume recovery and a defensive bid" (October).
| Field | The Procter & Gamble Company | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | The Procter & Gamble Company | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: PG · founded 1837 in Cincinnati | Dow Jones component; all US peers NYSE-listed |
| Domicile | United States (Ohio; headquarters Cincinnati) | Unilever UK |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Defensive · Household and personal products | Colgate the closest in mix |
| Market cap | $364.3B (2,322.7M shares × $156.84) | Largest in the set; 2.6× Unilever |
| Employees | ~104,000 (vendor) | Unilever ~94,000 |
| TTM revenue | $87.92B (Q2 FY26 – Q1 FY27) | Largest in the set |
| Revenue model | Five segments: Fabric & Home Care (35% of Q1 sales), Baby, Feminine & Family Care (23%), Beauty (19%), Health Care (14%), Grooming (8%) | Peers narrower in category scope |
| Key differentiators | Category-leading brands (Tide, Pampers, Gillette, Crest, Charmin, Olay, Pantene); scale in R&D and productivity (250 bps a quarter); ~65 countries; now Thorne in supplements | Unilever more food and emerging markets |
| CIK | 0000080424 | — |
| Website | pg.com | — |
P&G's fiscal Q1 showed a business growing volume again: organic sales +4%, volume +2.4%, sales $0.5B above consensus and core EPS 6% above it, with guidance held through a $400M larger commodity hit. It also showed the cost of that growth: core EPS up only 1%, gross margin down 150 bps, and a full-year guide implying ~1.5% EPS growth. The stock ran 10% into the print and trades at its mean target, in a regime on the boundary and with weak forward history. The peers report next. The view turns bullish if Colgate and Kimberly-Clark confirm the volume recovery and PG closes above its $167.25 February high. It turns bearish if the staples rotation unwinds and PG breaks $148.27, its 200-day average.