Close 19 Oct 2026
$98.49
Q3 2026 revenue rose 15% to $1.60B and adjusted EPS of $2.90 crushed the $1.85 consensus, with Magic: The Gathering up 34% to over $600M and Wizards earning a 49% margin. Hasbro raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.575–1.625B, above the $1.48B consensus, and doubled its buyback target. But ~$55M of one-off tariff refunds helped, and the full-year revenue guide implies Q4 sales down 4–10%. Shares were ~2% higher pre-market at ~$100.5, after rising 12.5% in a month. Over the next 10–30 days HAS trades on its own news, and the Mattel and holiday-season reads decide whether it reaches its $107 high.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $98.49 on 19 Oct: +12.5% over 30 days (toy peers +18–27%), +20.1% YTD, −7.9% from the $106.98 high of 12 Feb, and +32% over a year. About +2% pre-market (~$100.5) on the release. In four of the last six prints, the stock was higher 21 sessions later; the last three ranged from −11.1% to +5.1%. | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Q3 revenue $1.595B, +15% (fourth straight double-digit quarter), against $1.48B consensus. Wizards and Digital Gaming +31% (tabletop +39%, digital +3%), Consumer Products +4%, Entertainment +9%. The 2026 guide was raised to +7–9% in constant currency (from +5–7%). | Bullish |
| Profitability | Operating profit $517M (32.4% margin); adjusted $541M (+52%). Adjusted EBITDA $604.5M (37.9% margin) against $441M consensus. Wizards operating margin 49%; Consumer Products adjusted operating profit doubled to $178M, including $48M of tariff refunds. Adjusted EPS $2.90 against $1.85 (+57% surprise). | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 13.8× TTM adjusted EPS and 15.2× vendor forward EPS, against a 12.8× peer forward median; ~10.0× 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance (derived). P/S 2.68× against 0.72×, reflecting Wizards' margins. Dividend yield 2.84%. | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | Magic: The Gathering +34%, above $600M in a quarter for the first time, driven by The Hobbit and Reality Fracture. Monopoly Go! contributed $41M ($127M YTD). Consumer Products was led by Marvel, KPop Demon Hunters and Transformers; Europe was flat. Results include ~$55M of tariff refunds. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Cash $851M plus $576M of short-term investments; debt $3.51B ($894M due within a year, prefunded with Treasuries); net debt $2.08B. Nine-month operating cash flow $907M (+85%). $206M returned in Q3, and the 2026 buyback target was doubled. Equity $938M (debt-to-equity 3.7). | Mixed |
| Regime state | Q1 Volatile Trend: Persistency +0.162 (97th percentile), Volatility +0.328 (83rd). Held 4 sessions after 8 of Quiet Drift; Persistency has been positive since March. Not on a boundary. As of 19 Oct 2026 (1 trading day lag); the reading predates the release. | Bullish |
| Driver exposure | 87.5% idiosyncratic. One-year correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.28 (beta 0.66); correlations with Mattel (0.30), Funko (0.31) and JAKKS (0.29) are low. HAS trades on its own news. As of 19 Oct 2026. | Bullish |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | The implied Q4. The +7–9% revenue guide implies Q4 sales of ~$1.30–1.39B against $1.45B a year ago (−4% to −10%, derived), and adjusted EBITDA of ~$300–350M. Analysts may read the raise as pulled forward from Q4, with Magic concentration rising and 2027 EPS seen lower by the Street. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | JAKKS (22 Oct, just before), FOMC (27–28 Oct), Mattel and Funko (5 Nov) and the $0.70 dividend record date (18 Nov). The holiday ordering season and Black Friday (27 Nov, just after) shape the Consumer Products narrative. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed, with a constructive lean. This was the cleanest beat-and-raise in the toy group this year, carried by a Magic franchise in a growth phase and Wizards margins near 50%. The muted reaction reflects a 12.5% pre-print run, one-off tariff refunds and a guide that implies a softer Q4. A trend-persistent regime and an idiosyncratic profile favour continuation if the holiday read holds. Composite 7.3 / 10. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (30 Oct – 19 Nov 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date; market regimes as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind. The release came before the open on 20 Oct; the regular-session reaction is not yet in the price data (~$100.5 at 08:20 ET). The implied Q4 figures are derived from full-year guidance less nine-month results and ignore currency.
Hasbro is now a games company with a toy business attached: Wizards produced 47% of Q3 revenue and about two-thirds of segment profit. The quarter shows how powerful that mix is when Magic is in a strong release cycle. For the next month the question is whether the market extrapolates it, or reads the soft implied Q4 as the peak of the cycle.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.0). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 1.88 + 1.30 + 1.62 + 0.78 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.43 = 7.3 (7.25).
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Q4 decline | Financial | Guide implies Q4 revenue −4% to −10% | Yes |
| Mattel / Funko read-across | Competitive | Holiday orders and toy pricing | Yes |
| Positioning after the run-up | Market | +12.5% in 30 days into the print | Possible |
| Tariff refunds | Macro | $55M recognised; timing risk | Possible |
| Bond-market regimes | Macro | HAS's worst regimes for Bonds long and mid | Possible |
| Magic concentration | Structural | Set cadence drives results | Structural |
| Tariff policy | Structural | Import-heavy toy sourcing | Structural |
| Leverage | Financial | Net debt $2.1B; debt/equity 3.7 | Structural |
The live risks are about how the market interprets a strong quarter, not about the business: a guide that implies a weaker Q4, a toy group that has already rallied, and refunds that will not repeat. None changes the Magic story inside a month, but each can cap the reaction.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | 20 Oct 2026 | $1,595M | +7.9% | $2.77 (adj. $2.90) | +56.8% | Pre-mkt ~+2% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | 21 Jul 2026 | $1,140M | n/a | $1.12 (adj. $1.28) | +12.8% | +8.8% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | 13 May 2026 | $1,000M | n/a | $1.39 (adj. $1.47) | +29.5% | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | 10 Feb 2026 | $1,446M | n/a | $1.41 (adj. $1.51) | +59.3% | +7.5% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | 23 Oct 2025 | $1,388M | n/a | $1.64 (adj. $1.68) | +2.9% | +3.7% |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | 23 Jul 2025 | $981M | n/a | −$6.10 (adj. $1.30) | +68.6% | −0.9% |
Reports before the open use the same-day close-to-close move; Q1 2026 was reported after the close on 13 May, so its reaction is 14 May. The Q3 2026 regular-session reaction was not available at the time of writing (~$100.5 pre-market at 08:20 ET). EPS surprise compares adjusted EPS with the vendor consensus; the Q3 2026 revenue consensus is from StockStory. Q2 2025 GAAP EPS includes a $1.02B goodwill impairment. 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +3.3%, +1.6%, −8.5%, −11.1%, +5.1%.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| HAS | n/c | 100% (8/8) | Annual revenue, margin and EBITDA ranges |
| HAS (since 2021) | — | 75% (18/24) | Misses clustered in 2022–early 2024 |
| Take-Two | n/c | 100% (8/8) | Annual bookings and EPS |
| JAKKS | n/c | 88% (7/8) | Qualitative |
| Funko | n/c | 75% (6/8) | Annual ranges |
| Mattel | n/c | 63% (5/8) | Annual ranges |
| Peer median (last 8) | n/c | 81% | — |
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue (cc) | +7–9% | From +5–7%; implies Q4 ~$1.30–1.39B (derived) |
| 2026 adjusted operating margin | 27–28% | From 25–26% |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $1.575–1.625B | From $1.45–1.50B; consensus was $1.48B |
| Implied Q4 adjusted EBITDA | ~$301–351M | Guide less nine-month $1,274M (derived) |
| 2026 share repurchases | Target doubled | $149M bought in nine months; dollar target not disclosed in the release |
| Dividend | $0.70 / quarter | Record 18 Nov (inside the window), payable 2 Dec |
| Next quarterly report | ~Feb 2027 | Outside the window |
Hasbro has beaten eight quarters running and raised guidance again. The detail that matters for the month is the implied Q4: the raise is smaller than the Q3 beat, so the market has to decide whether Q4 is conservative or a sign that Magic demand was pulled forward.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 (print) | StockStory consensus read | Bullish | Revenue +7.9% vs consensus; EPS $2.90 vs $1.85; EBITDA guide midpoint $1.60B vs $1.48B |
| 13 Oct 2026 (pre-print) | Citigroup | Bullish | Buy; target raised to $117 from $107 |
| Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Neutral | Equal-Weight; $90 |
| Jul 2026 (post-Q2) | JPMorgan, Jefferies, BofA, BNP, Roth | Mixed | All Buy-equivalent but targets cut to $100–114 (from $115–125) |
| Jul 2026 | DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral; $95 (from $100) |
| Consensus | 13 analysts | Bullish | "Strong Buy"; mean target $111.38, median $114, range $90–120 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance rating log and consensus (retrieved 20 Oct 2026, pre-market); StockStory earnings report (20 Oct 2026). Post-print target changes had not yet been published at the time of writing. StockStory notes that the Street expects full-year EPS to fall ~12% over the next 12 months.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2026 | Holly Barbacovi, Officer | Sale | 5,057 | $94.20 | $476k | Mild negative |
| 17–19 Aug 2026 | John Hight, Officer | Sale | 22,822 | $94.63–96.29 | $2.18M | Negative-leaning |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Elizabeth Hamren, Director | Sale | 2,964 | $90.42–92.84 | $273k | Mild negative |
| 28–31 Jul 2026 | Gina Goetter, CFO & COO | Sale | 19,265 | $93.96–95.44 | $1.83M | Negative-leaning; post-Q2 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | John Hight, Officer | Sale | 3,186 | $93.71 | $299k | Mild negative |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Timothy Kilpin, Officer | Option exercise and sale | 20,000 | $92.00–94.24 | $1.86M | Neutral; option exercise |
| 11 Jun 2026 | Directors Harris, Hamren, Vernon, Mahoney | Annual grants | 2,224 each | — | — | Routine |
Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed and SEC EDGAR. Officers and a director sold ~$6.9M in July–August at $90–96, after the Q2 print; there were no open-market purchases. Three further Form 4 filings dated 2 Oct 2026 were not yet reflected in the feed. The company repurchased $149M of stock in the first nine months.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2026 | US retail | Black Friday; holiday sell-through read for toys and games | Just after |
| 18 Nov 2026 | Hasbro | Dividend record date ($0.70; payable 2 Dec) | Yes |
| 9 Nov 2026 | Take-Two | Quarterly results after the close; games-sector read | Yes |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Mattel, Funko | Q3 results after the close; holiday orders and toy pricing | Yes |
| 27–28 Oct 2026 | Federal Reserve | FOMC; consumer and rate read | Just before |
| 22 Oct 2026 | JAKKS Pacific | Q3 results after the close | Just before |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Hasbro release | Q3: revenue +15%, adj. EPS $2.90, Magic +34%; 2026 guide raised; buyback target doubled | No, sets the base |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Target raised to $117 from $107, Buy | No, sets the base |
| Sep – Oct 2026 | Market data | Toy stocks rally: HAS +12.5%, Mattel +27%, Funko +22%, JAKKS +18% in 30 days | No, sets the base |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Hasbro release | Q2: adj. EPS $1.28 vs $1.13; stock +8.8% | No, sets the base |
The window is 10–30 days from the 20 Oct 2026 report date (30 Oct – 19 Nov 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Peer dates come from the vendor earnings calendar. Hasbro's next earnings report (~Feb 2027) is outside the window.
Just before: JAKKS (22 Oct) and the FOMC (27–28 Oct). 5 Nov: Mattel and Funko, the main read on holiday toy orders and on whether the group rally holds. 9 Nov: Take-Two. 18 Nov: the dividend record date. Hasbro has no scheduled event of its own beyond the dividend.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAS | $98.49 | $13.89B | $5.18B | 2.68× | +15.0% | Strong Buy · $111.38 | Positive |
| Take-Two (TTWO) | $204.92 | $38.32B | $6.69B | 5.73× | +2.0% | Strong Buy · $286.44 | Neutral |
| Mattel (MAT) | $16.88 | $4.82B | $5.49B | 0.88× | +10.5% | Buy · $18.46 | Mixed |
| Funko (FNKO) | $6.57 | $0.37B | $0.93B | 0.39× | +7.4% | Buy · $7.25 | Neutral |
| JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) | $28.37 | $0.32B | $0.58B | 0.56× | +16.9% | Strong Buy · $28.50 | Neutral |
| Peer median | — | $2.60B | $3.21B | 0.72× | +9.0% | — | — |
Prices are at the 19 Oct 2026 close; HAS was ~$100.5 pre-market on 20 Oct. HAS revenue is TTM to Q3 2026 from the company release. Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun 2026. Take-Two stands in for a games peer for Wizards; Electronic Arts is no longer listed. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | $117 | $107 | 13 Oct 2026 | +18.8% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Wells Fargo | $90 | $85 | 20 Aug 2026 | −8.6% | Equal-Weight | ▲ Raised |
| Argus Research | $105 | $90 | 23 Jul 2026 | +6.6% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| JPMorgan | $111 | $125 | 22 Jul 2026 | +12.7% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
| DA Davidson | $95 | $100 | 22 Jul 2026 | −3.5% | Neutral | ▼ Lowered |
| Jefferies | $110 | $120 | 16 Jul 2026 | +11.7% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| BofA Securities | $105 | $115 | 16 Jul 2026 | +6.6% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| BNP Paribas | $114 | $117 | 15 Jul 2026 | +15.7% | Outperform | ▼ Lowered |
| Roth Capital | $100 | $120 | 14 Jul 2026 | +1.5% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
| Citigroup | $101 | $114 | 10 Jul 2026 | +2.5% | Buy | ▼ Lowered |
Implied return is measured against the $98.49 close on 19 Oct 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance rating log. Targets were cut broadly in July and have started to rise again (Wells Fargo, Argus, Citi). No post-print actions had been published at the time of writing; with guidance raised, upward revisions are the more likely direction.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $98.49 |
| Consensus target | $111.38 |
| Median target | $114.00 |
| High target | $120.00 |
| Low target | $90.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +13.1% |
| Implied downside to low | −8.6% |
| Analysts contributing | 13 |
Yahoo Finance consensus, 20 Oct 2026, before post-print resets. At the ~$100.5 pre-market level the consensus implies about +11%.
| $90 |
| $111 |
| $114 |
| $120 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | $981M | +10.6% | n/d | −$6.10 | 68.4% | ~$286M | ~22.8% | Beat | −0.9% |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | $1,388M | +41.5% | n/d | $1.64 | 61.9% | $413M | 24.6% | Beat | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | $1,446M | +4.2% | n/d | $1.41 | 60.9% | ~$355M | 20.6% | Beat | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | $1,000M | −30.8% | +12.7% | $1.39 | 68.6% | ~$316M | 27.0% | Beat | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | $1,140M | +13.9% | +16.2% | $1.12 | 68.2% | ~$290M | 22.2% | Beat | +8.8% |
| Q3 2026 (Sep-26) | $1,595M | +40.0% | +15.0% | $2.77 | 67.0% | $605M | 32.4% | Beat | Pending |
Margin is the GAAP operating margin; Q2 2025 excludes the $1.02B goodwill impairment (marked ~). Adj. EBITDA is company-reported for Q3 2025 and Q3 2026; other quarters show vendor EBITDA (marked ~), as quarterly adjusted figures were not available. Gross margin is revenue less cost of sales and royalties (derived). Q1 2025 revenue ($887M) is nine-month 2025 less Q2 and Q3. Strong seasonality makes QoQ changes large; YoY is the cleaner trend.
Revenue has grown double digits year on year for four quarters. Operating margin reached 32.4% in Q3, the highest of the six quarters, on Wizards mix, cost productivity and tariff refunds. Q2 2025 excludes the goodwill impairment.
| Metric | 27 Sep 2026 | 28 Dec 2025 | 29 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.60 | 1.5–3.0 target · slightly below; $894M of debt now current |
| Quick ratio | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.40 | ≥1.0 · passed |
| Cash ratio | 0.62 | 0.41 | 0.50 | Cash $851M plus $576M of short-term investments |
Derived from reported balance sheets. The September current ratio dipped because $894M of bonds moved into current maturities; Hasbro has bought Treasuries to prefund the 2026 and 2027 maturities.
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| HAS (Sep 26) | 1.40 | −$2.08B | Adequate; maturities prefunded |
| Mattel (Jun 26) | 1.90 | −$2.22B | Strong |
| JAKKS (Jun 26) | 1.72 | +$0.01B | Strong |
| Funko (Jun 26) | 1.16 | −$0.22B | Tight |
| Take-Two (Jun 26) | 1.06 | −$1.12B | Adequate |
| Peer median | 1.44 | −$0.67B | — |
| Metric | 27 Sep 2026 | 28 Dec 2025 | 29 Dec 2024 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 3.74 | 6.12 | 2.95 | Lower is safer · high; equity was cut by the 2025 goodwill impairment |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.55 | 0.59 | 0.54 | <0.5 conservative · slightly above |
| Interest coverage | 12.1× (Q3) | 6.5× | 4.2× | >2.5 healthy · passed; FY25 excludes the impairment |
| Debt service coverage | ~1.5 (TTM) | n/d | n/d | >1.25 healthy · passed; adjusted EBITDA over interest plus current maturities |
Debt $3.51B (Sep 26: $894M current, $2,616M long-term), $3.30B (Dec 25), $3.41B (Dec 24). Coverage is operating profit over interest expense (Q3 $517M / $42.7M; FY25 ex-impairment $1,058M / $163M; FY24 $727M / $171M). DSCR uses TTM adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.63B (derived) over ~$171M of interest plus $894M of current maturities.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | TTM | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 67.0% | 65.9% | 61.9% | 64.6% | 64.6% | ▲ |
| Operating margin | 32.4% | 25.8% | 24.6% | 0.2% | 17.6% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 24.7% | 18.4% | 16.8% | −6.9% | 9.3% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 37.9% | ~31% (2026 guide) | 29.8% | n/d | n/d | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 6.2% (q) | 15.9% | 4.2% (q) | −5.4% | 6.0% | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 42% (q) | ~129% | 54% (q) | −38% | 35% | Inflated by thin equity |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | 18.4% × 0.81 × 8.7 | — | −6.9% × 0.85 × 6.5 | — | Margin-led; high leverage multiplier |
(q) = single quarter, not annualised. All ratios are derived from reported figures; TTM combines Q4 2025 – Q3 2026. FY2025 operating and net margins include the $1.02B goodwill impairment. ROE is distorted by equity of under $1B after impairments and buybacks.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAS (TTM) | 65.9% | 25.8% | 18.4% | ~31% | ~129% | 1 of 5 |
| Mattel | 47.6% | 1.3% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 20.5% | 2 of 5 |
| JAKKS | 34.0% | −0.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Funko | 42.2% | −1.6% | −0.2% | 6.4% | −1.0% | 4 of 5 |
| Take-Two | 57.1% | 0.5% | −4.8% | 11.5% | −9.0% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 44.9% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — |
Peers are vendor TTM; vendor operating margins are latest-quarter figures, which are seasonally low for toy companies in the first half. Peer EBITDA margins are reported EBITDA. Rank is by ROE; HAS also leads on every margin line.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 0.81 | 0.85 (FY25) | Revenue over latest total assets ($6.40B) |
| Revenue per employee | ~$1.15M | ~$1.04M (FY25) | On ~4,520 employees (vendor) |
| EPS growth (Q3 YoY) | +73% adj. | — | GAAP $2.77 vs $1.64 (+69%) |
| Revenue growth (9M) | +15% | — | Wizards +28%, Consumer Products +3%, Entertainment −13% |
| Dividend yield | 2.84% | — | $0.70 quarterly ($2.80 a year) |
| Free cash flow (9M) | $759M | $342M (9M25) | Operating cash flow less capex and software (derived) |
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAS | 0.81 | $1.15M | ~4,520 | +73% (adj.) | 2.84% | 2 of 5 |
| JAKKS | 1.30 | $896k | 652 | n/a | 3.52% | 1 of 5 |
| Mattel | 0.86 | $177k | 31,000 | n/a | 0.00% | 3 of 5 |
| Funko | 1.43 | $845k | 1,104 | n/a | 0.00% | 4 of 5 |
| Take-Two | 0.74 | $518k | 12,909 | n/a | 0.00% | 5 of 5 |
| Peer median | 1.08 | $682k | 7,007 | n/a | 0.00% | — |
Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (derived). The vendor does not provide quarterly EPS growth for these peers. Mattel's revenue per employee reflects owned manufacturing.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards and Digital Gaming revenue | $747.2M | $572.0M | +31% | 47% of group revenue |
| Tabletop gaming (Magic, D&D) | $613.1M | $441.8M | +39% | Magic +34% to more than $600M |
| Digital and licensed gaming | $134.1M | $130.2M | +3% | Monopoly Go! $41M |
| Wizards operating profit | $367.4M | $251.5M | +46% | 49% margin; $7M tariff refund |
| Consumer Products revenue | $827.9M | $796.9M | +4% | North America +5%, Europe 0%, APAC +9%, LatAm +5% |
| Consumer Products adj. operating profit | $177.7M | $88.9M | +100% | Includes $48M of tariff refunds |
| Entertainment revenue | $20.2M | $18.6M | +9% | Family Brands +10% |
| Licensing revenue | $144.3M | $152.6M | −5% | Royalty expense +24% to $142.1M |
From the Q3 2026 release (20 Oct 2026, SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1).
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 14.7× | GAAP TTM EPS $6.69; 13.8× adjusted ($7.16) |
| P/E forward (vendor) | 15.2× | Forward EPS $6.48 (pre-print); peer median 12.8× |
| Price / book | n/m | BVPS $6.66 after impairments and buybacks |
| Price / sales TTM | 2.68× | Peer median 0.72× |
| EV / adj. EBITDA | ~10.0× | EV $15.97B over the $1.60B 2026 midpoint; vendor TTM 12.6× |
| EV / EBITDA vs Take-Two | 10.0× vs 51.4× | Take-Two vendor TTM, depressed EBITDA |
| FCF yield / dividend yield | ~5.5% (9M) / 2.84% | Nine-month FCF $759M over $13.89B market cap |
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAS | $98.49 | $13.89B | $5.18B | 2.68× | +272% |
| Take-Two | $204.92 | $38.32B | $6.69B | 5.73× | +696% |
| Mattel | $16.88 | $4.82B | $5.49B | 0.88× | +22% |
| JAKKS | $28.37 | $0.32B | $0.58B | 0.56× | −22% |
| Funko | $6.57 | $0.37B | $0.93B | 0.39× | −46% |
| Peer median | — | $2.60B | $3.21B | 0.72× | — |
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAS | $7.16 (adj.) | 13.8× | +15.0% | n/m | Games-like margins at a toy-like multiple; 2027 EPS seen lower |
| Mattel | $1.36 | 12.4× | +10.5% | n/m | Cheaper, lower-margin toy pure play |
| JAKKS | $1.41 | 20.1× | +16.9% | n/m | Small cap; 8.7× forward |
| Funko | −$0.03 | n/m | +7.4% | n/m | Turnaround; near breakeven |
| Take-Two | −$1.73 | n/m | +2.0% | n/m | Valued on the next release cycle |
| Peer median | — | 16.3× | +9.0% | n/m | — |
Hasbro trades at a toy-company earnings multiple with games-company margins. The discount reflects how concentrated the profit is in Magic, and the Street's expectation that 2027 EPS falls from 2026's high. After a 57% beat and raised guidance, the forward multiple will compress mechanically as estimates rise, which supports the price.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Statistics use the full window, 26 Aug 2025 – 19 Oct 2026 (289 observations); the trace plots the latest 260 (from 7 Oct 2025). As of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the 20 Oct 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.1617 | 0.0176 | 0.0924 | −0.0755 | 0.1730 | 97.2 | Trend-persistent; positive in every session but one since 13 Mar |
| Volatility | 0.3284 | 0.0017 | 0.2891 | −0.4965 | 0.4986 | 82.7 | Elevated; up from −0.22 on 8 Oct during the pre-print rally |
Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 4 consecutive sessions (14–19 Oct) after 8 sessions of Quiet Drift. Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the call is not provisional. Since March HAS has alternated only between Volatile Trend and Quiet Drift, both trend-persistent states. The reading predates the 20 Oct release. As of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 29.1% | Mar–Apr, May–Jun, Jul–Aug (35 sessions), late Sep and since 14 Oct 2026 |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 20.8% | Late 2025 bursts; 20 Jan – 12 Mar 2026 around the Q4 print |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 27.0% | Oct–Dec 2025 base (43 sessions) and Dec–Jan |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 23.2% | Apr–May, Jun–Jul, Aug–Sep and 2–13 Oct 2026 pauses |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Volatile trend ↔ Quiet drift | 7 | 4 into drift, 3 back; the 2026 pattern |
| Quiet range ↔ Volatile chop | 9 | 5 into chop, 4 back; the 2025 pattern |
| Volatile chop → Volatile trend | 1 | 13 Mar 2026: the regime change |
| Quiet drift → Quiet range → Volatile trend | 2 | One-session dip on 26 May |
Over the window, 21-day forward returns from Quiet Range had a median of +4.4% (81% positive, 78 observations); from Volatile Chop +0.6% (53%, 60); from Volatile Trend 0.0% (49%, 71); and from Quiet Drift −1.6% (46%, 59). Unconditionally the median was +1.7% (59% positive), in a stock up 32% over the year. As of 19 Oct 2026.
The series moves in small daily steps and can hold near one value for weeks, producing near-vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. Since March HAS has stayed in trend-persistent states, so moves, including this print's, have tended to extend. Its own 21-day history from Volatile Trend is flat, however, because those trends have alternated direction. These statistics describe 26 Aug 2025 – 19 Oct 2026 and are not predictions.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | −0.012 | 0.0 | 0.239 | −0.491 | 0.329 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.041 | 0.2 | −0.095 | −0.306 | 0.534 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.024 | 0.1 | 0.048 | −0.479 | 0.348 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | 0.006 | 0.0 | −0.100 | −0.259 | 0.286 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.016 | 0.0 | 0.059 | −0.355 | 0.300 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.353 | 12.5 | 0.009 | −0.680 | 0.059 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.001 | 0.0 | −0.268 | −0.596 | 0.418 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | 0.003 | 0.0 | 0.208 | −0.407 | 0.349 | Variable | Neutral |
Methodology: daily log returns of HAS against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 21 Oct 2021 – 19 Oct 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Only Sector Driver 1 carries weight (−0.35, R² 12.5%); its rolling reading has ranged from −0.68 to +0.06 and is near zero now (+0.01). Market Driver 1's rolling reading is +0.24, with no full-window link. Drivers as of 19 Oct 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | −0.00002 | −0.015 | 0.18% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.20089 | −0.354 | 99.82% |
HAS is an idiosyncratic name. For the next 10–30 days the market will not decide the month: the post-print estimate revisions, Magic sell-through and the Mattel holiday read will. An index hedge would not offset it.
Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against HAS daily returns, Sep 2024 – Oct 2026. Sector Driver 1 has been mostly negative and is close to zero now; Market Driver 1 has swung around zero (+0.24 on the latest plotted reading). As of 19 Oct 2026.
HAS daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 16 Oct 2026, 1,177 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days (the smallest is 69), so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 302 | 25.7% | +19.8% | +16.3% | 32.3% | 0.50 | 50.3% | +13.65% | −12.39% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 172 | 14.6% | +3.2% | +4.7% | 31.6% | 0.15 | 47.7% | +11.20% | −9.24% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 417 | 35.4% | −5.4% | −3.3% | 35.9% | −0.09 | 51.1% | +13.61% | −13.11% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 286 | 24.3% | −9.2% | −8.1% | 31.4% | −0.26 | 49.3% | +12.18% | −6.20% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 237 | 20.1% | +52.7% | +56.8% | 31.8% | 1.79 | 51.1% | +13.65% | −5.07% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 412 | 35.0% | +4.6% | +2.8% | 35.5% | 0.08 | 50.7% | +13.61% | −13.11% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 351 | 29.8% | −23.9% | −17.8% | 33.2% | −0.54 | 50.7% | +12.18% | −12.39% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 177 | 15.0% | −12.7% | −17.6% | 29.8% | −0.59 | 45.2% | +11.20% | −9.24% |
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Quiet Drift Current | 249 | 21.2% | +32.2% | +32.7% | 29.8% | 1.10 | 50.6% | +13.65% | −5.13% |
| Q2 Volatile Chop | 446 | 37.9% | +17.7% | +9.7% | 32.6% | 0.30 | 50.4% | +13.61% | −10.38% |
| Q3 Quiet Range | 339 | 28.8% | −16.8% | −12.8% | 34.5% | −0.37 | 49.9% | +12.18% | −13.11% |
| Q1 Volatile Trend | 143 | 12.1% | −18.0% | −29.6% | 38.1% | −0.78 | 47.6% | +11.20% | −9.24% |
Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded HAS return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for HAS | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | +19.8% | 0.50 | 0.76 | 31 |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +52.7% | 1.79 | 2.38 | 31 |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | +32.2% | 1.10 | 1.88 | 25 |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q4 Quiet Drift | −20.9% | −0.41 | 3.09 | 104 |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +49.8% | 3.08 | 3.36 | 19 |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | −8.6% | −0.21 | 2.34 | 80 |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −9.8% | −0.30 | 2.57 | 25 |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | +48.6% | 1.31 | 2.14 | 24 |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q1 Volatile Trend | +76.4% | 1.10 | 2.05 | 52 |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q2 Volatile Chop | +14.0% | 1.00 | 1.88 | 34 |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | +56.6% | 1.48 | 2.30 | 115 |
| Bonds near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | +9.9% | 0.45 | 2.82 | 3 |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Q3 Quiet Range | Q1 Volatile Trend | −51.7% | −1.07 | 3.12 | 21 |
| Bonds long | Q2 Volatile Chop | Q4 Quiet Drift | Q2 Volatile Chop | −51.1% | −1.14 | 2.89 | 14 |
All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning HAS is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind.
Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 16 Oct 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days; where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations, and earnings days of ±12–14% weigh heavily on individual buckets. Market regime series as of 16 Oct 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 26 | Hasbro reports Q3: revenue +15%, adjusted EPS $2.90; raises 2026 outlook and doubles buyback target (company release) | Positive |
| 20 Oct 26 | Magic: The Gathering tops $600M in a quarter for the first time (The Toy Book) | Positive |
| 20 Oct 26 | Hasbro beats on revenue, EPS and EBITDA; shares +2.3% after the report (StockStory) | Positive |
| 20 Oct 26 | Results include ~$55M of IEEPA tariff refunds; licensing revenue −5% (release) | Neutral |
| 20 Oct 26 | Full-year guide implies Q4 revenue down 4–10% (derived from the release) | Negative |
| 13 Oct 26 | Citigroup raises its target to $117, Buy (Yahoo Finance) | Positive |
| Sep – Oct 26 | Toy stocks rally into earnings season; HAS +12.5% in 30 days | Positive |
| Aug 26 | CFO Goetter and other officers sell ~$6.9M after the Q2 rally (Form 4) | Negative |
| 20 Aug 26 | Wells Fargo raises its target to $90, Equal-Weight (Yahoo Finance) | Neutral |
| 21 Jul 26 | Q2 adjusted EPS $1.28 vs $1.13; stock +8.8%, after a round of July target cuts | Positive |
| 13 May 26 | Q1 adjusted EPS $1.47 vs $1.13; network-access disruption weighs on Consumer Products | Mixed |
| 12 Feb 26 | Shares reach a $106.98 intraday high after the Q4 print | Positive |
12 rows, newest first. Sources: company release (SEC 8-K exhibit 99.1), The Toy Book, StockStory, Yahoo Finance rating and insider feeds; price moves derived from daily closes. The narrative has moved from "post-impairment reset" (2025) to "Magic-led growth with toy disruption" (H1 2026) to "beat-and-raise, but how much is left for Q4" (now).
| Field | Hasbro, Inc. | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Hasbro, Inc. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NASDAQ: HAS · founded 1923 ("165 years of expertise" per the company, including acquired brands) | Mattel, JAKKS, Funko and Take-Two all Nasdaq-listed |
| Domicile | United States (Rhode Island; relocating operations to Boston) | All peers US-domiciled |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Cyclical · Leisure: tabletop and digital games, toys, licensing, entertainment | Mattel the closest toy peer; Take-Two for games |
| Market cap | $13.89B (141.0M shares × $98.49) | Second to Take-Two ($38.3B) |
| Employees | ~4,520 (vendor) | Mattel ~31,000 (owned manufacturing) |
| TTM revenue | $5.18B (Q4 2025 – Q3 2026) | Similar to Mattel ($5.49B) |
| Revenue model | Wizards (Magic, D&D, digital licences such as Monopoly Go!) at ~47% of Q3 revenue; Consumer Products (toys and games, increasingly licensed out); Entertainment (Family Brands licensing) | Most peers are product sellers |
| Key differentiators | Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons IP; asset-light licensing model; Monopoly, Nerf, Play-Doh, Transformers and Peppa Pig; partner brands Marvel and Star Wars | Mattel's Barbie and Hot Wheels are the closest IP rivals |
| CIK | 0000046080 | — |
| Website | hasbro.com | — |
Hasbro's Q3 was a standout quarter: revenue +15%, adjusted EPS of $2.90 against $1.85, Magic above $600M, and adjusted EBITDA guidance lifted to $1.6B, 8% above the Street. The stock reacted only modestly, because it rose 12.5% into the print, $55M of tariff refunds will not repeat, and the new guide implies a smaller Q4. The regime is trend-persistent, most market groups sit in HAS's best regimes, and the stock trades on its own news; estimate revisions should run upward. The view turns bullish if HAS clears its $106.98 high on rising estimates and a healthy Mattel holiday read. It turns bearish if the implied-Q4 debate dominates and HAS breaks $91, its 200-day average.