JBL · NYSE · Information Technology · Electronic Manufacturing Services

Jabil raised its outlook and lost a tenth of its value; the month tests whether that was positioning or a margin warning

In short

On 30 September Jabil beat on every line and guided FY27 to $44.5B of revenue and $17.55 of core EPS, both above consensus. The stock fell 10.0% to $286.86, its worst day of the year. The Q1 margin guide is lighter, management flagged real memory-supply constraints, and positioning in AI-linked names was crowded. At about 16× FY27 core EPS the drop looks overdone. But over the next 10–30 days the market regime works against a fast recovery: the US market is in Quiet Drift, historically Jabil's worst US regime.

Research desk

2026-10-01 · Data as of 30 Sep 2026 close · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · constructive lean

Close 30 Sep 2026

$286.86

30 day

▼ 6.0%

Year to date

▲ 25.8%

From 52W high

▼ 25.6%

Ann. volatility (30d)

50.8%

Regime as of

30 Sep

Market cap

$30.1B

52W range

$192.49–385.63

TTM revenue

$35.96B

Rev growth

+28.7% FQ4

P/S TTM

0.84×

P/E TTM

29.4× (core 21.9×)

Report date

30 Sep 2026

TTM EPS

$9.75 (core $13.09)

EV/EBITDA

~10.8× core

FY27 AI revenue

$22.1B (+54%)

Core op. margin FQ4

6.4%

Net cash

−$1.64B

Employees

~135,000

Next catalyst

Late Oct

JBL · 30-day price

JBL · 1-year price

00Executive Summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	−10.0% on 30 Sep, the worst day in a year, on 4.9M shares (4.0× the 30-day average). −25.6% from the $385.63 high of 15 Jun and −6.0% over 30 days, though still +25.8% YTD. EMS peers fell 0.7–3.5% the same day.	Bearish
Revenue growth	FQ4 FY26 revenue $10.62B, +28.7% YoY and $0.9B above the $9.69B consensus. FY26 $36.0B (+21%). FY27 guide $44.5B (+24%) against a $42.93B consensus, with AI-related revenue guided to $22.1B (+54%).	Bullish
Profitability	FQ4 core operating margin 6.4%; FY26 5.8% (+40 bps). The Q1 guide midpoint of 5.65% is down sequentially, and FY27 is 6.1%, back-end loaded because of ramp costs. GAAP net margin is about 2.9%.	Mixed
Valuation vs peers	16.3× FY27 core EPS against a 17.0× peer forward median. About 10.8× core EV/EBITDA against 20.3×. P/S 0.84× against 1.22×. Jabil is the cheapest scale EMS name after the drop.	Bullish
Platform KPIs	FY27 AI revenue $22.1B (+54%), networking +45–50%, 4M sq ft of new capacity. Regulated Industries is growing (healthcare, Croatia ramp). Connected Living is guided −15% as lower-margin work is exited.	Bullish
Balance sheet	Debt $3.38B, cash $1.74B, net debt $1.64B. Equity is only $1.62B after $1.06B of FY26 buybacks, so D/E is 2.09. Current ratio 0.99. FY27 needs about $1B more working capital.	Mixed
Regime state	Q3 Quiet Range, on the boundary: Persistency −0.039 is within 0.05 of zero, 90th percentile of its own history. Volatility −0.414. Held 6 sessions. As of 30 Sep 2026 (1 trading day lag). The 30 Sep move may not yet be fully reflected in the Volatility reading.	Neutral
Driver exposure	73.3% idiosyncratic. The systematic part sits on Sector Driver 1 (corr −0.517). Market Driver 1 is 0.007. Beta is 1.19 to the technology sector and 2.07 to the S&P 500. As of 30 Sep 2026.	Neutral
Key risk (next 10–30 days)	The AI-hardware complex gets marked down again. Hyperscaler capex commentary in late October and Celestica's and Flex's prints set the tone. Memory constraints could also cap shipments in diversified end markets in Q1.	Bearish
Catalysts in window	Post-print target resets (early Oct). TSMC Q3 (mid-Oct). Celestica Q3 and Flex FQ2 (late Oct, expected). Hyperscaler Q3 capex prints and FOMC (27–30 Oct). Jabil's own next report (~mid-Dec) is outside the window.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days)	Mixed, leaning constructive. The drop came on a beat-and-raise, and in 4 of the last 5 prints the stock was higher 21 sessions later. Seven of 14 market groups sit in Jabil's historically worst regime, so the recovery may be slow. Composite 6.9 / 10. Mixed

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (11 – 31 Oct 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.

Jabil's numbers improved on every line that matters for FY27. The stock fell anyway, which says more about positioning in AI-hardware names than about Jabil. The month decides whether that gap closes. Peers, hyperscaler capex and a weak market-regime backdrop will set the pace.

01Investment Thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.

Bull case

A raise sold like a cut. FY27 core EPS of $17.55 is 3.7% above the $16.92 consensus, and revenue of $44.5B is 3.7% above $42.93B. Q1 revenue of $10.6–11.4B compares with a $9.94B consensus. The stock fell 10% anyway.

Drops after prints have recovered. 21 sessions after the Sep 2025 (−6.7%) and Mar 2026 (−1.4%) reaction days, the stock was +1.1% and +24.4%. Four of the last five prints were higher a month later.

Multiple compression has gone far. At 16.3× FY27 core EPS, well below its multiple at the June peak, Jabil trades below the peer forward median of 17.0× while growing core EPS 34%. EV/EBITDA is about 11× against 20× for peers.

AI revenue is visible. FY27 AI-related revenue is guided to $22.1B (+54%), with networking +45–50% and booked orders from multiple hyperscalers. Management expects to beat the 6.1% margin target.

Buyback support. A new $1.5B authorisation was announced in July (about 5% of market cap), after $1.06B of repurchases in FY26. A director bought shares at $299.63 in July.

What must happen in the window: analysts hold targets at $375–475, Celestica and Flex confirm AI demand, and the stock reclaims $300–320.

Neutral case

Margins dip before they recover. The Q1 core operating income guide of $592–652M on $10.6–11.4B is about 5.65% at the midpoint, against 6.4% in Q4. Management calls FY27 margins "back-end loaded", so the proof comes in the second half.

A wide guide reads as caution. Q1 core EPS of $3.80–4.20 has a 10% range. The market took that as less conviction, and nothing inside the window narrows it.

The regime read is on the boundary. Persistency is −0.039, within 0.05 of the axis, and Volatility is −0.414. Over the year, Quiet Range days were followed by a 21-day median of +4.4%, against +2.4% for Volatile Chop. That fits a slow grind rather than a snap-back.

Peers are mixed. Celestica is +20.7% over 30 days, Flex +0.7% and Jabil −6.0%. Dispersion within EMS is high, so peer prints may not carry Jabil with them.

What must happen in the window: no new AI-capex shock, flat estimates, and JBL trades $270–310.

Bear case

Memory constraints are real. Management said memory is "being reallocated towards AI and hyperscale demand, tightening supply" across its diversified end markets. Micron confirmed the same day that DRAM is supply-constrained through 2027–28. Shortages can cap Regulated and Connected Living shipments in Q1.

Working capital and a thin equity cushion. FY27 needs about $1B more working capital. Inventory days are 64, above target. Equity is $1.62B against $27.4B of assets, and the current ratio is 0.99.

A hostile market regime. In US market Quiet Drift, the current regime, JBL has returned an annualised −17.9% (Sharpe −0.43). Its 21-day forward median was −1.3%, positive 46.2% of the time, against +2.9% / 60.8% unconditionally. Seven of 14 groups are in JBL's worst regime.

Sensitivity to AI-capex sentiment. At 2.07 beta to the S&P 500 and 1.19 to the technology sector, a hyperscaler capex wobble in late October would hit an AI-hardware name that has already de-rated.

A downtrend since June. The stock is −25.6% from its high, with lower highs on each rally ($375 Jul, $370 Aug, $319 Sep) and a close below the $301 August low. Analysts were already cutting before the print: Goldman went from $482 to $375 on 8 Sep.

What must happen in the window: hyperscaler capex guides flat, peers flag component shortages, and JBL breaks $270 toward the $240–267 March–April lows.

The guide went up, the price went down. History favours the recovery; the current regime says it will take a while.

02Composite Assessment

The finding: over the next 10–30 days, Jabil's 10% fall on a beat-and-raise should partly reverse as FY27 estimates move toward the $17.55 guide at about 16× earnings. The recovery depends on late-October hyperscaler capex and Celestica/Flex prints confirming AI demand. With the US market in Jabil's historically worst regime, expect it to be gradual, not a quick refill of the gap.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue Growth

8.0

+28.7% FQ4, +24% FY27 guide; 3rd of 5 vs SANM +70%, CLS +62%

Profitability

6.0

Core op margin 5.8% (3rd of 5); net margin 2.9%; Q1 margin dip

Valuation

7.8

16.3× FY27 core vs 17.0× peers; ~11× EV/EBITDA vs 20.3×

Earnings Quality

7.5

10 consecutive EPS beats; adj. FCF $1.53B; GAAP-to-core gap $3.34/share

Balance Sheet

5.5

Net debt $1.64B is modest; equity $1.62B, current ratio 0.99

Competitive Position

8.0

Top-2 EMS by revenue; multi-hyperscaler AI racks; regulated healthcare franchise

Structural Risk

5.5

Customer concentration; component shortages; tariffs; thin margins

Regime Alignment

4.5

7 of 14 groups in JBL's worst regime; US market Quiet Drift Sharpe −0.43

Driver Independence

7.3

73.3% idiosyncratic; Sector Driver 1 carries the rest

Composite

6.9

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 · Risk 10 · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (5.5). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.00 + 1.56 + 1.08 + 0.90 + 0.55 + 0.45 + 0.37 = 6.9.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

A large beat. FQ4 revenue was 9.6% above consensus ($10.62B vs $9.69B), and core EPS of $4.40 beat $4.06 by 8%. It was above the top of the company's own $3.80–4.20 guide.

FY27 EPS growth of 34%. Core EPS goes from $13.09 to $17.55 on +24% revenue and +30 bps of margin.

A relatively cheap AI exposure. About 50% of FY27 revenue is AI-related ($22.1B). Jabil trades at 0.84× sales against Celestica at 2.92×.

Asset-light cash generation. Capex is 1.5–2% of revenue. Adj. FCF was $1.53B in FY26 and is guided to ~$1.6B in FY27, about a 5% FCF yield.

Shareholder returns. $1.06B repurchased in FY26 and a new $1.5B programme. The diluted share count fell from 109.3M to about 105M in a year.

Loses

Thin margins. Core operating margin is 5.8% against Celestica's 9.8% and Sanmina's 7.0%. GAAP net margin is 2.9%.

Sequential margin dip. The Q1 midpoint is about 5.65% against 6.4% in Q4, as ramp and under-utilisation costs land first.

Balance-sheet optics. Equity of $1.62B means D/E is 2.09 and book value is $15 per share. ROE of 66% is driven by buybacks, not returns on capital.

Working-capital drag. About $1B of extra working capital is needed in FY27, and inventory days (64) are above target.

Unfavourable regime map. The US market, Global market, Technology, Financials, Europe, Bonds mid and VIX Mid are all in JBL's worst regime for that group.

03Risk Factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Hyperscaler capex read (late Oct). About half of FY27 revenue is AI-linked. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon report Q3 in the last week of October. A pause or a capex mix shift away from racks and networking would hit Jabil's most valuable segment.

Peer prints (Celestica, Flex). Both report in late October (expected). Margin or shortage commentary from either would be read straight across. Celestica is the AI-rack comparison investors use.

Memory and component shortages. DRAM supply is reallocated to AI, as Micron said on 30 Sep. That can delay shipments in Regulated Industries and Connected Living and hurt Q1 revenue conversion.

Target cuts after the drop. Goldman had already cut to $375. Further cuts after the print would reinforce the de-rating, even if estimates rise.

Macro beta. Beta is 2.07 to the S&P 500, and the FOMC meets 27–28 Oct. US market Quiet Drift has been JBL's worst US regime.

Structural context

Customer concentration. A handful of hyperscalers and consumer-device customers make up a large share of revenue. Programme losses play out over quarters.

Tariffs and geography. Manufacturing spans the US, Mexico, China, India and Europe. Management sees no material FY27 impact, and policy shifts take longer than a month to change economics.

Margin ceiling of the EMS model. Pass-through component costs cap margins around 6%. That is a valuation-ceiling question, not a window event.

Leverage through buybacks. Equity has been run down to $1.6B. That is not a risk at $1.6B of net debt, but it limits flexibility in a downturn.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Hyperscaler capex commentary	Macro	~50% of FY27 revenue AI-linked	Yes
Celestica / Flex read-across	Competitive	Sector valuation and AI-rack demand	Yes
Memory / component shortages	Operational	Shipments delayed in diversified end markets	Possible
Analyst target cuts	Technical	De-rating reinforced after a 10% drop	Possible
FOMC / equity beta	Macro	2.07 beta to the S&P 500	Possible
Customer concentration	Competitive	Programme wins and losses	Structural
Tariffs / geopolitics	Governance	Footprint cost shifts	Structural
Thin-equity balance sheet	Financial	D/E 2.09 after buybacks	Structural

Jabil's own results are not the risk this month. The risks that matter arrive in the last ten days of October through hyperscaler and peer results, and they will decide whether the 30 September drop was a buying point or the start of a lower range.

04Earnings & Guidance Signals

−10.0

Reaction to a beat-and-raise: Jabil's worst session of the year

$318.84 (29 Sep) → $286.86 (30 Sep) on 4.9M shares, 4.0× the 30-day average. FQ4 revenue +9.6% and core EPS +8% vs consensus.

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report Date	Revenue	vs Est.	EPS (dil.)	vs Est.	Stock Reaction
FQ4 FY26 (Aug-26)	30 Sep 2026	$10,620M	+9.6%	$3.76 (core $4.40)	+8.0%	−10.0%
FQ3 FY26 (May-26)	17 Jun 2026	$8,751M	+1.4%	$2.59 (core $3.16)	+1.3%	−0.1%
FQ2 FY26 (Feb-26)	18 Mar 2026	$8,282M	Beat	$2.08 (core $2.69)	+7.2%	−1.4%
FQ1 FY26 (Nov-25)	17 Dec 2025	$8,305M	Beat	$1.35 (core $2.85)	+4.4%	+1.8%
FQ4 FY25 (Aug-25)	25 Sep 2025	$8,252M	Beat	$1.99 (core $3.29)	+11.7%	−6.7%
FQ3 FY25 (May-25)	17 Jun 2025	$7,828M	Beat	$2.03 (core $2.55)	+9.8%	+8.9%

All reports come before the open; the reaction is the same-day close-to-close move. EPS surprise is on core EPS against consensus. Where only the direction of the revenue surprise was available, it is shown as "Beat". The 21-session moves after each print, oldest to newest: +13.8%, +1.1%, +14.1%, +24.4%, −18.4%.

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev Beat Rate	EPS Beat Rate	Guidance
JBL	100% (6/6)	100% (6/6)	Raised FY26 three times; FY27 above consensus
Celestica	Beat	Beat	Raised (last Q)
Flex	Beat	Beat	Raised (last Q)
Sanmina	Beat	Beat	ZT Systems integration
Peer median (last Q)	Beat	Beat	—

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	~mid-Dec 2026	Outside the 10–30 day window
Q1 FY27 revenue	$10.6–11.4B	Consensus was ~$9.94B
Q1 core operating income	$592–652M	~5.65% at the midpoint vs 6.4% in Q4
Q1 core EPS	$3.80–4.20	GAAP $2.78–3.18; wide range
FY27 revenue	$44.5B	+24%; consensus $42.93B; 45% H1 / 55% H2
FY27 core margin	6.1%	+30 bps; back-end loaded
FY27 core EPS	$17.55	+34%; consensus $16.92
FY27 adj. FCF	~$1.6B	After ~$1B of extra working capital

The next Jabil print is not in the window. The guide gives estimates room to rise by roughly 4% for FY27. The stock's response in October depends on whether investors treat the Q1 margin dip as a ramp cost or a warning.

05Analyst Outlook

Period	Source	View	Key Point
Sep 2026	Goldman Sachs (Delaney)	Mixed	Buy kept, target cut to $375 from $482 on 8 Sep
Sep 2026	Weiss Ratings	Neutral	Downgrade to Buy (B−) from Buy (B)
Aug 2026	UBS (Vogt) / Zacks	Mixed	UBS upgrades to Buy ($430); Zacks downgrades to Hold
Jun 2026	JPM, Barclays, Stifel, Baird, Raymond James, BofA, Argus	Bullish	Seven raises or reiterations to $426–475 after the FQ3 print
Sep 2026 (pre-print)	Seeking Alpha contributors	Bullish	"Plunge is a gift" value framing after the drop
Consensus	9–10 analysts	Bullish	1 Strong Buy / 8 Buy / 1 Hold; mean $430 (Yahoo) to $442 (MarketBeat)

Sources: MarketBeat and Benzinga rating logs, Yahoo Finance consensus, Seeking Alpha, retrieved 1 Oct 2026. Coverage is narrow (about 10 analysts), and post-print revisions were not yet visible at the report date.

06Insider & Board Activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal Read
17 Jul 2026	N. V. Tyagarajan, Director	Purchase	500	$299.63	$0.15M	Only open-market buy in 2026; small but positive
15 Jul 2026	Gary Schick, Officer	Sale	1,000	$315–330	$0.32M	Small; no signal
20 Apr 2026	Andrew Priestley, COO	Sale	3,169	$330.00	$1.05M	Second sale in April; mildly negative
17 Apr 2026	Steven Borges, Officer	Sale	5,126	$317.51	$1.63M	Mildly negative
16 Apr 2026	May Yee Yap, CTO	Sale	1,634	$306.74	$0.50M	Small
10 Apr 2026	Andrew Priestley, COO	Sale	4,000	$301.00	$1.20M	Mildly negative
10 Apr 2026	Anousheh Ansari, Director	Sale	2,000	$300.00	$0.60M	Small
FY2026	Company (buyback)	Repurchase	~4M^e	—	$1.06B	Strongest signal; $1.5B new authorisation (Jul)

Source: SEC Form 4 via the Yahoo Finance insider feed; buyback from the FY26 release. 2026 executive sales total about $6M (derived). GuruFocus cites $79.8M of net insider selling over 12 months, which includes 2025 transactions. Insiders own about 1.2%. The share count reduction is derived from diluted shares (109.3M to ~105M).

07Recent News & Catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
~mid-Dec 2026	Jabil (expected)	Q1 FY27 results against the $10.6–11.4B / $3.80–4.20 guide	No
~late Oct 2026	Flex (expected)	FQ2 FY27 results; closest diversified-EMS comparison	Yes
27–30 Oct 2026	Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon (expected)	Q3 results and capex guides; the main read on AI-rack demand	Yes
27–28 Oct 2026	Federal Reserve	FOMC meeting; 2.07 beta to the S&P 500	Yes
~late Oct 2026	Celestica (expected)	Q3 results; the AI-rack valuation comparison	Yes
Mid-Oct 2026	TSMC (expected)	Q3 results; AI hardware demand read-through	Yes
Oct 2026	Jabil	FY26 10-K filing; segment disclosure and customer concentration detail	Likely
Early Oct 2026	Sell-side	Target resets after the print and the 10% drop	Early window
30 Sep 2026	Jabil release	FQ4 beat ($10.62B / $4.40 core EPS); FY27 guide $44.5B / $17.55; memory constraints flagged; stock −10.0%	No, sets the base
30 Sep 2026	Micron release	DRAM supply-constrained through 2027–28, which confirms Jabil's memory-allocation warning	No

The window is 10–30 days from the 1 Oct 2026 report date (11 – 31 Oct 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected" are based on prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.

Catalysts inside the window

Early–mid Oct: sell-side target resets, whose direction will tell us whether the drop was positioning. Mid-Oct: TSMC Q3, which sets AI-hardware sentiment. Late Oct: Celestica and Flex results, the direct peer read on AI racks, margins and component shortages. 27–30 Oct: hyperscaler capex guides and the FOMC, which decide whether AI-hardware multiples recover. October: the 10-K, with customer concentration detail.

08Ratings & Price Targets — Peer Frame

Company	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY)	Source View	News Sentiment
JBL	$286.86	$30.1B	$35.96B	0.84×	+28.7%	Strong Buy · $430	Negative
Flex (FLEX)	$109.99	$40.6B	$29.27B	1.39×	+20.6%	Strong Buy · $161	Mixed
Celestica (CLS)	$361.43	$45.6B	$15.59B	2.92×	+62.4%	Strong Buy · $474	Positive
Sanmina (SANM)	$214.91	$11.5B	$12.76B	0.90×	+69.7%	n/r · $260	Mixed
Benchmark (BHE)	$82.91	$3.0B	$2.82B	1.06×	+17.7%	Strong Buy · $86	Neutral
Peer median	—	$26.1B	$14.18B	1.22×	+41.5%	—	—

Prices at 30 Sep 2026 close. JBL figures come from its FQ4 FY26 release (FY to 31 Aug 2026). Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun 2026 with latest-quarter growth. Sanmina's growth includes the ZT Systems manufacturing acquisition. Source view is the vendor consensus key and mean target; n/r means not rated.

8.5Analyst Price Targets — Multiple Sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / Source	Current Target	Previous	Date	Implied Return	Rating	Direction
Weiss Ratings	—	—	16 Sep 2026	—	Buy (B−)	▼ Lowered (grade)
Goldman Sachs (Delaney)	$375	$482	8 Sep 2026	+30.7%	Buy	▼ Lowered
UBS (Vogt)	$430	—	11 Aug 2026	+49.9%	Buy (upgrade)	▲ Raised
Argus	$475	—	18 Jun 2026	+65.6%	Buy	► Set
Bank of America (Bhattacharya)	$470	$470	18 Jun 2026	+63.8%	Buy	► Maintained
Stifel (Roy)	$460	$430	18 Jun 2026	+60.4%	Buy	▲ Raised
JPMorgan (Chatterjee)	$450	$395	18 Jun 2026	+56.9%	Overweight	▲ Raised
Raymond James (Fairbanks)	$450	$425	18 Jun 2026	+56.9%	Strong Buy	▲ Raised
Baird (Junk)	$440	$355	18 Jun 2026	+53.4%	Outperform	▲ Raised
Barclays (Long)	$426	$304	18 Jun 2026	+48.5%	Overweight	▲ Raised

Implied return is measured against the $286.86 close on 30 Sep 2026. Sources: MarketBeat and Benzinga rating logs. MarketBeat lists Stifel's previous target as $290, Benzinga as $430; Benzinga is used. All targets predate the 30 Sep print and the 10% drop.

Metric	Value
Last close	$286.86
Consensus target	$430.33
Median target	$430.00
High target	$475.00
Low target	$365.00
Implied upside to consensus	+50.0%
Implied return to low (no downside target)	+27.2%
Analysts contributing	9

Yahoo Finance consensus, 1 Oct 2026. MarketBeat shows a $441.78 mean across 10 analysts. Every published target sits above the close.

Target range vs last close ($286.86)

$365

$430

$475

09Fundamental Financial Analysis — Company Trends & Peer Comparison

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (diluted)	Gross Margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs Est.	Next-day Reaction
FQ3 FY25 (May-25)	$7,828M	~+16.3%	+15.7%	$2.03	8.7%	$602M^e	7.7%	Beat	+8.9%
FQ4 FY25 (Aug-25)	$8,252M	+5.4%	+18.5%	$1.99	9.5%	~$689M^e	8.3%	Beat	−6.7%
FQ1 FY26 (Nov-25)	$8,305M	+0.6%	+18.7%	$1.35	8.9%	$610M^e	7.3%	Beat	+1.8%
FQ2 FY26 (Feb-26)	$8,282M	−0.3%	~+23.1%	$2.08	9.0%	$538M^e	6.5%	Beat	−1.4%
FQ3 FY26 (May-26)	$8,751M	+5.7%	+11.8%	$2.59	9.5%	$624M^e	7.1%	Beat	−0.1%
FQ4 FY26 (Aug-26)	$10,620M	+21.4%	+28.7%	$3.76	n/d	~$875M^e	8.2%	Beat	−10.0%
FQ1 FY27 guide	$11,000M	+3.6%	+32.5%	$2.98 GAAP / $4.00 core	—	~$822M^e	~7.5%	Above cons.	—

FY ends 31 August. Reports come before the open, so the reaction is same-day. Gross margin is vendor gross profit over revenue; FQ4 FY26 gross profit was not disclosed in the summary release. Adj. EBITDA marked ^e is vendor normalised EBITDA (FQ3 FY25 – FQ3 FY26) or core operating income plus ~$200M of D&A (FQ4 FY25, FQ4 FY26, FQ1 guide). The FQ1 guide uses midpoints. Growth rates marked "~" use prior-year quarters from earlier releases.

Revenue $M · own band

Core operating margin % · own band

Core operating margin: 6.3% (FQ4 FY25), 5.7% (FQ1, derived), 5.3%, 5.8%, 6.4% (FQ4 FY26). FQ3 FY25 (5.4%) is an estimate. Revenue stepped up in FQ4 as AI programmes ramped. The margin pattern repeats each year: it peaks in FQ4 and dips in FQ1–FQ2.

9.1 — Liquidity ratios

Metric	31 Aug 2026	31 Aug 2025	31 Aug 2024	Target / Status
Current ratio	0.99	1.00	1.09	1.5–3.0 healthy · below; typical of EMS with large payables
Quick ratio	0.38	0.44	~0.58^e	≥1.0 healthy · below
Cash ratio	0.08	0.14	0.19	Cash $1.74B against $21.7B of current liabilities

Current assets jumped from $13.7B to $21.5B in a year on receivables (+$2.5B) and inventory ($7.4B) to support the AI ramp. FY24 quick ratio uses vendor receivables (marked ^e).

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current Ratio	Net Cash Position	Liquidity Status
JBL (31 Aug 26)	0.99	−$1.64B	Tight; payables-funded
Flex (Jun 26)	1.38	−$3.09B	Adequate
Celestica (Jun 26)	1.23	−$0.44B	Adequate
Sanmina (Jun 26)	1.78	−$0.58B	Strong
Benchmark (Jun 26)	1.99	+$0.02B	Strongest
Peer median	1.58	−$0.51B	—

9.2 — Leverage & solvency

Metric	31 Aug 2026	31 Aug 2025	31 Aug 2024	Target / Status
Debt-to-equity	2.09	1.91	1.66	Lower is safer · rising as buybacks shrink equity
Debt-to-assets	0.12	0.16	0.17	<0.5 conservative · passed
Interest coverage	~9.3× (FY26)	9.8×	8.3×	>2.5 healthy · passed
Debt service coverage	~4.3× (FY26)	3.6×	12.3×	>1.25 healthy · passed

Debt excludes leases: $3.38B (Aug 26), $2.89B (Aug 25), $2.88B (Aug 24). Coverage uses GAAP operating income over interest expense (FY26 interest ~$183M, derived from quarters). DSCR = EBITDA ÷ (interest + current debt). FY24 had no current debt.

9.3 — Profitability ratios

Metric	FQ4 FY26	TTM (= FY26)	FQ4 FY25	FY2025	FY2024	Trend
Gross margin	n/d	~9.2%	9.5%	8.9%	9.3%	→
Operating margin (GAAP)	5.7%	4.7%	4.1%	4.8%	5.0%	→ (core 5.8% FY26 vs 5.4%)
Net margin	~3.7%^e	2.9%	2.6%	2.2%	4.8%	▲
Adj. EBITDA margin	~8.2%^e	~8.2%^e	~8.3%^e	7.7%	~7.4%^e	→
Return on assets	1.4% (q)	4.5%	1.2% (q)	3.7%	7.5%	→
Return on equity	24.4% (q)	66.4%	14.4% (q)	40.4%	60.3%	▲
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	—	2.9% × 1.56 × 14.7	—	2.2% × 1.66 × 11.0	4.8% × 1.57 × 8.0	ROE is leverage-driven

(q) = single quarter, not annualised. FY26 GAAP net income is about $1.04B (9.75 × ~106.5M diluted shares, derived). FY24 net income includes the gain on the Mobility divestiture. The DuPont split shows ROE rising almost entirely through the equity multiplier (8× to 15×) as buybacks shrink equity.

Peer comparison	Gross	Op Margin	Net Margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Profitability Rank
JBL (FY26)	~9.2%	5.8% core / 4.7% GAAP	2.9%	~8.2%	66.4%	3 of 5
Flex	9.5%	5.0%	3.3%	7.3%	18.4%	4 of 5
Celestica	12.0%	9.8%	7.2%	10.0%	52.7%	1 of 5
Sanmina	9.0%	7.0%	2.4%	6.8%	12.5%	2 of 5
Benchmark	10.3%	4.1%	1.9%	5.2%	4.8%	5 of 5
Peer median	9.9%	6.0%	2.9%	7.1%	15.4%	—

Peers are vendor TTM to Jun 2026. Rank is by operating margin. Jabil's ROE is not comparable because its equity base is unusually small after buybacks.

9.4 — Efficiency & growth

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year	Comment
Asset turnover	1.56	1.66 (FY25)	Working capital built ahead of FY27 ramp
Revenue per employee	$266k	$221k (FY25)	~135,000 staff (vendor; same base)
Core EPS growth (FY26)	+34.3%	~+14.8% (FY25)	$13.09 vs $9.75 vs ~$8.49
GAAP EPS growth (FQ4 YoY)	+88.9%	—	$3.76 vs $1.99
Dividend yield	0.11%	0.16%	$0.08 per quarter
Adj. FCF yield	5.1%	4.4%	$1.53B FY26; ~$1.6B FY27 guide

Company	Asset Turnover	Rev / Employee	Employees	EPS Growth	Div Yield	Growth Rank
JBL	1.56	$266k	~135,000	+88.9%	0.11%	3 of 5
Flex	1.33	$196k	149,686	+52.0%	—	4 of 5
Celestica	1.59	$655k	23,803	+74.2%	—	2 of 5
Sanmina	1.31	$365k	35,000	+68.3%	—	1 of 5
Benchmark	1.27	$238k	11,840	n/m	0.81%	5 of 5
Peer median	1.32	$302k	29,402	+68.3%	—	—

Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over the latest total assets (Flex derived from ROA ÷ net margin). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure. Benchmark's is a base effect and is marked n/m.

Platform metrics

Metric	FQ4 FY26	FQ4 FY25	YoY	Comment
Net revenue	$10.62B	$8.25B	+28.7%	$0.9B above consensus
Core operating income	$675M	$519M	+30.1%	Margin 6.4% vs 6.3%
Core diluted EPS	$4.40	$3.29	+33.7%	Above the $3.80–4.20 guide
AI-related revenue (FY)	~$14.4B^e FY26	—	→ $22.1B FY27 (+54%)	Networking +45–50% in FY27
Net inventory days	64	—	—	Above target, improving
Capex (% of revenue)	~1.3%	—	—	FY27 1.5–2%; asset-light
Adj. free cash flow (FY)	$1.532B	$1.318B	+16.2%	FY27 guide ~$1.6B
Share repurchases (FY)	$1.060B	$1.000B	+6.0%	New $1.5B authorisation

FY26 AI-related revenue is derived from the FY27 $22.1B guide and the +54% growth rate. Segment-level FQ4 revenue was not in the summary release.

9.5 — Market valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM (GAAP)	29.4×	21.9× on core TTM $13.09; peer median 41.9× GAAP
P/E on FY27 core guide	16.3×	$17.55; peer forward median 17.0×
Price / book	18.6×	Distorted by buyback-depleted equity
Price / sales TTM	0.84×	Peer median 1.22×
EV / adj. EBITDA TTM	~10.8×	EV $31.7B on ~$2.93B core EBITDA (derived); peers 20.3×
PEG	0.82	Vendor; 0.64 on 34% FY27 core growth
Adj. FCF yield	5.1%	Funds buybacks

Price / sales	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	vs Peer Median
JBL	$286.86	$30.1B	$35.96B	0.84×	−31%
Flex	$109.99	$40.6B	$29.27B	1.39×	+14%
Celestica	$361.43	$45.6B	$15.59B	2.92×	+139%
Sanmina	$214.91	$11.5B	$12.76B	0.90×	−26%
Benchmark	$82.91	$3.0B	$2.82B	1.06×	−13%
Peer median	—	$26.1B	$14.18B	1.22×	—

Earnings & growth-adjusted	TTM EPS	P/E TTM	Rev Growth	PEG	Assessment
JBL	$9.75	29.4×	+28.7%	0.82	Cheapest on forward and EBITDA
Flex	$2.51	43.8×	+20.6%	0.94	Premium for slower growth
Celestica	$9.51	38.0×	+62.4%	1.00	AI-rack premium
Sanmina	$5.39	39.9×	+69.7%	0.76	Acquisition-inflated growth
Benchmark	$1.45	57.2×	+17.7%	1.33	Small-cap, expensive
Peer median	—	41.9×	+41.5%	0.97	—

After the drop Jabil is the cheapest large EMS name on forward earnings, EBITDA and sales, while guiding 34% core EPS growth. Valuation gives a floor in the low $270s. The month's direction still depends on whether the AI-hardware group as a whole re-rates.

10Regime Analysis — Persistency & Volatility

−0.039

Persistency at the 90th percentile of its own history, placing JBL in Quiet Range on the boundary

289 daily observations, 7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026. Volatility −0.414. As of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date. Status: CURRENT.

10.1 — Regime trace

JBL — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (289 daily points, oldest faint → newest bright)

Q1 Volatile trend Q2 Volatile chop Q3 Quiet range Q4 Quiet drift Current (30 Sep)

Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the 1 Oct 2026 report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std Dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	−0.0389	−0.1975	0.0901	−0.3634	−0.0087	90.0	Random / Neutral. Near the top of a range that has always been negative, so JBL is less mean-reverting than usual
Volatility	−0.4135	0.0017	0.2891	−0.4965	0.5000	8.7	Subdued Vol. Fell from +0.384 on 16 Sep. The −10% day on 30 Sep may lift this in the next readings

Currently in Q3 Quiet Range, held 6 consecutive periods. Persistency is within 0.05 of the axis (−0.039), so the quadrant call is provisional. JBL is on the boundary between Quiet Range and Quiet Drift. As of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind.

10.3 — Regime occupancy & transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of period	Character
Q1	Volatile trend	0.0%	Never visited
Q2	Volatile chop	49.8%	Whipsaw; fading extremes has worked
Q3	Quiet range	50.2%	Mean-reverting range; historically the most comfortable regime for selling premium
Q4	Quiet drift	0.0%	Never visited; Persistency never above zero

Transition	Count	Note
Quiet range → Volatile chop	7	Volatility expansions around prints and sell-offs
Volatile chop → Quiet range	7	Calm returns; the latest on ~24 Sep

JBL has only alternated between Quiet Range and Volatile Chop: Persistency stayed below zero all year. 21-day forward median returns were +4.4% from Quiet Range (139 days, 68% positive) and +2.4% from Volatile Chop (129 days, 60% positive). As of 30 Sep 2026.

Persistency moves slowly.

The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. For the next 10–30 days the question is whether the earnings-day move pushes Volatility back above zero, into Volatile Chop. These statistics describe 7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026 and are not predictions.

11Driver Exposure — Market & Sector Covariation

73.3

of daily variance is company-specific; the rest sits on Sector Driver 1

Regression on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 1,253 overlapping observations, 4 Oct 2021 – 30 Sep 2026. Drivers as of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind.

11.1 — Driver correlation table

Factor	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d (current)	Rolling Min	Rolling Max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	0.007	0.0	−0.013	−0.347	0.367	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 2	0.010	0.0	−0.109	−0.375	0.313	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 3	0.009	0.0	0.202	−0.332	0.423	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 4	0.000	0.0	−0.079	−0.277	0.404	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 5	−0.011	0.0	0.019	−0.364	0.302	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.517	26.7	−0.426	−0.801	−0.229	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 2	−0.008	0.0	0.464	−0.646	0.551	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 3	−0.016	0.0	0.241	−0.396	0.519	Variable	Neutral

Methodology: daily log returns of JBL against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 4 Oct 2021 – 30 Sep 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's rolling correlation stayed negative throughout (−0.80 to −0.23). Sector Driver 2 (+0.464 now, near its +0.551 maximum) is currently unusually influential. Drivers as of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic decomposition

Systematic 26.7%

Idiosyncratic 73.3%

Factor	Raw Beta	Standardised Beta	Share of Explained Variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	0.00000	0.002	<0.1%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.35137	−0.517	>99.9%

JBL is a sector proxy with a large company-specific component. Market Driver 1 explains nothing, and the systematic share sits entirely on Sector Driver 1. For the next 10–30 days, an index hedge would not offset JBL's risk. AI-hardware sector rotation and Jabil's own news decide the month.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against JBL daily returns, Sep 2024 – Sep 2026. Current Sector Driver 1 reading −0.426 against a −0.52 full-period average. Market Driver 1 is −0.013, around zero as usual. There is no inversion. As of 30 Sep 2026.

12Performance by Market Regime

JBL daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 29 Sep 2026, 1,163 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days, so none is marked thin. The statistics describe history, not the future.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q3 Quiet Range	291	25.0%	+119.8%	+97.8%	36.0%	2.72	55.0%	+17.22%	−9.00%
Q2 Volatile Chop	412	35.4%	+178.8%	+87.2%	38.9%	2.24	54.6%	+13.23%	−11.65%
Q1 Volatile Trend	170	14.6%	+8.2%	+12.4%	43.1%	0.29	52.9%	+12.33%	−12.57%
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	291	25.0%	−20.3%	−17.9%	42.0%	−0.43	51.5%	+8.51%	−18.02%

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q2 Volatile Chop	408	35.1%	+222.8%	+106.2%	38.5%	2.76	56.1%	+13.23%	−11.65%
Q3 Quiet Range	355	30.5%	+127.7%	+79.3%	36.3%	2.18	53.8%	+17.22%	−9.00%
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	227	19.5%	−0.3%	−0.3%	42.2%	−0.01	53.3%	+12.33%	−18.02%
Q1 Volatile Trend	174	14.9%	−27.9%	−37.7%	45.0%	−0.84	48.3%	+9.90%	−12.57%

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q2 Volatile Chop	442	38.0%	+143.6%	+66.1%	40.7%	1.63	54.1%	+13.23%	−10.36%
Q1 Volatile Trend	140	12.0%	+22.9%	+44.9%	40.8%	1.10	50.0%	+12.33%	−12.57%
Q3 Quiet Range	343	29.5%	+47.2%	+32.8%	40.0%	0.82	51.6%	+17.22%	−11.65%
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	239	20.5%	+19.9%	+21.1%	36.9%	0.57	58.2%	+4.85%	−18.02%

Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded JBL return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.2 — Cross-group summary grid

Group	Current Regime	Best Regime for JBL	Worst Regime	Cum. Return in Current	Sharpe in Current	Sharpe Spread	Days in Current
US market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q3 Quiet Range	Q4 Quiet Drift	−20.3%	−0.43	3.15	18
SP500	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	−0.3%	−0.01	3.60	18
Global market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q4 Quiet Drift	+19.9%	0.57	1.06	12
Technology	Q3 Quiet Range	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q3 Quiet Range	+42.1%	0.62	0.90	91
Financials	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	Q1 Volatile Trend	−0.6%	−0.03	2.30	6
Energy	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q4 Quiet Drift	+19.5%	0.39	4.14	67
Utilities	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	+42.9%	1.20	0.58	12
Europe	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	+9.1%	0.21	2.08	11
Gold	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	+118.7%	1.28	1.25	271
VIX Near	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	+50.4%	3.56	6.00	21
VIX Mid	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q4 Quiet Drift	−12.4%	−0.24	2.55	102
Bonds near	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	+63.3%	3.79	3.56	6
Bonds mid	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	Q1 Volatile Trend	+41.0%	0.61	0.90	8
Bonds long	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q4 Quiet Drift	+94.2%	1.60	1.88	1

All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning JBL is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Market regimes as of 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.3 — Sensitivity callouts

Most sensitive to the VIX Near regime (Sharpe spread 6.00), then Energy (4.14), SP500 (3.60) and Bonds near (3.56). JBL has done best when near-dated volatility trends (Sharpe 6.07) and worst when it sits in a quiet range (0.07).

What has historically followed the current US market regime over 10–30 days. In the 273 days the US market was in Quiet Drift, JBL's 21-day forward return had a median of −1.3% and was positive 46.2% of the time. Unconditionally, the median was +2.9% and positive 60.8% of the time. With SP500 in Quiet Drift the figures were −2.4% and 42.6%. This is history, not a forecast.

Currently in an unfavourable configuration. Seven of 14 groups sit in JBL's worst regime for that group: the US market (Quiet Drift, Sharpe −0.43), Global market, Technology (Quiet Range, 0.62), Financials, Europe, Bonds mid and VIX Mid (−0.24). This is the weakest regime map of the names in this series.

The offsets are rates and gold. Bonds near in Volatile Trend (JBL's best, Sharpe 3.79) and Gold in Volatile Chop (second best) point the other way. JBL has done well when short rates trend.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 29 Sep 2026, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.

13News & Market Narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
30 Sep 26	Jabil beats FQ4: revenue $10.6B vs $9.69B, core EPS $4.40 vs $4.06 (Benzinga)	Positive
30 Sep 26	FY27 guide $44.5B revenue (+24%) and $17.55 core EPS (+34%), above the $42.93B / $16.92 consensus (Investing.com)	Positive
30 Sep 26	Shares drop 10% despite the beat and raise; valuation and wide Q1 range cited (GuruFocus, CoinCentral)	Negative
30 Sep 26	Jabil flags "real constraints" as memory is reallocated to AI and hyperscale demand (Benzinga)	Negative
30 Sep 26	Call: AI revenue to $22.1B in FY27 (+54%); margins back-end loaded; Connected Living −15% (GuruFocus)	Mixed
30 Sep 26	"Jabil's plunge is a gift for value investors" (Seeking Alpha)	Positive
16 Sep 26	Weiss Ratings trims grade to Buy (B−)	Neutral
8 Sep 26	Goldman Sachs cuts target to $375 from $482, keeps Buy	Negative
11 Aug 26	UBS upgrades Jabil to Buy with a $430 target	Positive
Jul 26	Jabil announces a new $1.5B share repurchase programme (Benzinga)	Positive
Jul 26	Stock down 17% relative to the market in the month after the FQ3 beat (Nasdaq / Zacks)	Negative
17 Jun 26	FQ3 beat; FY26 outlook raised to $35B / $12.70; AI revenue view lifted to $13.6B	Positive

12 rows, newest first. The narrative has moved from AI-rack winner to execution and positioning. Every print since June has been a beat, and the stock has de-rated anyway.

14Company Snapshot

Field	Jabil Inc.	Peer context
Legal name	Jabil Inc. (formerly Jabil Circuit, Inc.)	—
Exchange / IPO	NYSE: JBL · IPO 1993	Flex NASDAQ; Celestica NYSE/TSX; Sanmina NASDAQ; Benchmark NYSE
Domicile	Delaware, USA; HQ St. Petersburg, Florida	Flex Singapore/Austin; Celestica Toronto
Sector / industry	Information Technology · Electronic Manufacturing Services	—
Market cap	$30.1B (104.8M shares × $286.86)	Below Flex ($40.6B) and Celestica ($45.6B) despite the larger revenue
Employees	~135,000 (vendor)	Flex 149,686; Celestica 23,803
TTM revenue	$35.96B (FY26 to 31 Aug 2026)	Largest in the peer set
Revenue model	Contract design and manufacturing across Intelligent Infrastructure (AI data-centre racks, networking, cloud), Regulated Industries (healthcare, auto, aerospace) and Connected Living & Digital Commerce	Celestica concentrated in data-centre hardware; Flex more diversified
Key differentiators	Scale (~100 sites, 30 countries); multi-hyperscaler AI programmes; regulated healthcare manufacturing (auto-injectors, devices); asset-light capex of 1.5–2% of revenue	Celestica higher-margin HPS design; Sanmina adds ZT Systems rack capacity
CIK	0000898293	—
Website	jabil.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · constructive lean

Jabil beat, raised FY27 above consensus and then fell 10% to about 16× forward earnings, the cheapest large EMS valuation. Its record of recovering after prints and the coming estimate revisions favour a partial recovery. The Q1 margin dip, memory constraints and a market-regime map with seven of 14 groups in Jabil's worst regime argue for a slow one. The view turns bullish if late-October hyperscaler capex guides and the Celestica and Flex prints confirm AI-rack demand. It turns bearish if they do not, or if the stock breaks $270.

Volatility Farm

1 · Daily prices and volumes for JBL, FLEX, CLS, SANM, BHE, the technology-sector ETF and SPY from the Yahoo Finance chart feed (used in place of the Massive API for bulk history). Last completed session 30 Sep 2026 close. Peer market caps and TTM ratios are vendor data (Yahoo Finance) to Jun 2026.
2 · Financial statements from Jabil's FQ4 FY26 release (30 Sep 2026), FQ2 and FQ3 FY26 releases and 8-Ks, and FY24–FY25 annual statements. Call commentary via GuruFocus and Benzinga. Consensus and analyst actions from Benzinga, Investing.com, MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance. Insider data from SEC Form 4 via Yahoo Finance.
3 · Persistency and Volatility from the Trader workbook tab Individual regimes daily (7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind). Market regimes from Market regimes daily (to 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind). Market and Sector Drivers from the Market and Sector driver tabs (to 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind). Freshness status: CURRENT.
4 · Derived rather than reported: market cap, EV, net debt, EV/EBITDA, P/E on guidance, P/B, P/S, FCF yield, PEG (0.64 variant); FY26 GAAP net income (~$1.04B) and FQ4 net margin; core EBITDA (core operating income plus estimated D&A) and every margin marked ^e; FQ1 FY26 and FQ3 FY25 core margins; FY26 AI-related revenue (~$14.4B); FY26 interest expense; every ratio in 9.1–9.4; peer asset turnover, medians and ranks; insider sale totals and share-count reduction; forward-return statistics and cumulative regime returns in sections 10 and 12; betas to the technology sector and the S&P 500.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 1 Oct 2026 (11 – 31 Oct 2026). Regime and driver statistics describe their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.