MU · NASDAQ · Information Technology · Semiconductors (Memory)

Micron cleared every bar at seven times run-rate earnings. The risk for the month is the cycle debate, not the numbers

In short

After the 30 September close Micron reported $54.2B of revenue and an 87% gross margin. It guided FQ1 FY27 to $61.5B and $38.15 of EPS, about 8% above consensus, and the stock barely moved after hours. Estimates now have to rise into a $1.2 trillion stock trading at about 7× annualised guidance. Two prior prints were sold hard within a week, and MU sits in a Volatile Chop regime. Over the next 10–30 days the bull case is favoured as long as SK Hynix and the semiconductor tape confirm that memory pricing is still rising.

Research desk

2026-10-01 · Data as of 30 Sep 2026 close · Horizon 10–30 days

Bullish · high variance

Close 30 Sep 2026

$1,065.11

30 day

▲ 11.1%

Year to date

▲ 273.2%

From 52W high

▼ 12.2%

Ann. volatility (30d)

49.7%

Regime as of

30 Sep

Market cap

$1.20T

52W range

$167–1,214

TTM revenue

$133.19B

Rev growth

+379% FQ4

P/S TTM

9.0×

P/E TTM

14.3×

Report date

30 Sep 2026

TTM EPS

$74.33 (adj $75.51)

EV/EBITDA

10.4×

Gross margin FQ4

87.0%

FQ1 FY27 guide

$61.5B

Net cash

+$68.3B

Employees

~53,000

Next catalyst

Mid-Oct

MU · 30-day price

MU · 1-year price

00Executive Summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	+273% YTD and +550% over one year. Now 12.2% below the $1,213.56 close of 25 Jun, after a 39% fall to $739 on 29 Jul and a 44% recovery since. +11.1% in 30 days, including +18% in the week before the print. Flat after hours on the results (about −0.8%).	Mixed
Revenue growth	FQ4 FY26 revenue $54.23B, +31% QoQ and +379% YoY. FQ4 ran 14 weeks; on a weekly basis that is about +22% QoQ (derived). FY26 $133.19B, +256%. FQ1 FY27 guide $61.5B ± $1.5B against $57B consensus.	Bullish
Profitability	Non-GAAP gross margin 87.0% (+210 bps QoQ), GAAP operating margin 80.7%, net income $37.7B in a quarter. FY26 ROE 88%. FQ1 guide: gross margin 86.25%, which clears the ~86% line the bears were watching.	Bullish
Valuation vs peers	14.3× GAAP TTM P/E against a 20.3× peer median. About 7.0× FQ1 guidance annualised. P/S 9.0× against 12.6×. The multiple is low because the market is treating these as peak-cycle earnings. P/B is 8.7×, well above the 1.5–3× of past cycles.	Bullish
Platform KPIs	DRAM $39.8B (73%, ASP up high-teens % QoQ). NAND $14.1B (ASP ~+30%). Most CY2027 HBM bit supply is contracted at significantly higher prices. 26 strategic customer agreements cover 35%+ of revenue through 2030.	Bullish
Balance sheet	Cash and investments $73.5B against $5.2B of debt, so net cash is $68.3B. FY26 FCF $62.3B after $27.4B of capex. Current ratio 3.31.	Bullish
Regime state	Q2 Volatile Chop, held 8 sessions. Persistency −0.114 (19th percentile), Volatility +0.230 (73rd). Trend-following has been punished here and fading extremes has worked better. As of 30 Sep 2026 (1 trading day lag).	Mixed
Driver exposure	77.7% idiosyncratic. The systematic part runs through Sector Driver 1 (corr −0.469). Market Driver 1 is −0.051. In plain terms, 1.43 beta to the semiconductor index (corr 0.82) and 3.3 to the S&P 500. As of 30 Sep 2026.	Neutral
Key risk (next 10–30 days)	Selling into good news. The 5-day returns after the Mar and Jun prints were −14.0% and −14.9%. Management said the pace of price increases "will moderate somewhat", and capex is going up. A weak SK Hynix read or a semiconductor sell-off at 1.4× beta could take 15–20% off.	Bearish
Catalysts in window	Analyst estimate and target raises (early Oct). TSMC and ASML Q3 (mid-Oct). Dividend record date 14 Oct. SK Hynix Q3 (late Oct, expected). FOMC 27–28 Oct. Samsung's preliminary Q3 (~7 Oct) lands just before the window.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days)	Bullish, with high variance. A guide 8% above consensus at about 7× run-rate earnings should pull estimates and targets up into the window. The quiet after-hours reaction means there is no gap to fade, unlike June. Composite 8.3 / 10. Bullish

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only (11 – 31 Oct 2026). Row tint matches the badge. Regime and driver readings as of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.

The quarter answered the question the market was asking, whether margins can hold at about 86%, with 86.25%. What decides the next month is whether investors believe the cycle lasts. That will be argued through peer prints and price checks, not through Micron's own numbers.

01Investment Thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is in section 02.

Bull case

The guide resets estimates higher. FQ1 revenue of $61.5B and EPS of $38.15 are 8% above the $57B / $35.40 consensus. Annualised, the guide is about $153 of EPS, so the stock trades at about 7× forward. Upward revisions in the first half of October are close to automatic.

Management says supply is short. DRAM industry bits grow in the low 20s % in 2027–28, against demand it calls structurally higher. Management "does not foresee when supply and demand will return to balance". New fabs (ID1 mid-2027, ID2 late 2028, New York 2030) arrive after the window by years.

Visible demand reduces cycle risk. Most CY2027 HBM bit supply is under agreement at significantly higher prices. 26 strategic agreements cover 35%+ of revenue through 2030, backed by $32B of customer financial commitments.

No gap to fade this time. The June print gapped up +15.7% and gave back 14.9% in five sessions. This time the after-hours move was about −0.8%, so the post-print fade has no starting point.

The market regime has historically helped. SP500 Quiet Drift (current) is MU's best SP500 regime (Sharpe 4.92, 21-day forward median +8.8%, 75% positive). 12 of 14 groups sit in regimes where MU's Sharpe has been positive.

What must happen in the window: targets move toward $1,500+, SK Hynix confirms rising contract prices, and the stock reclaims $1,100–1,214.

Neutral case

The beat was expected. The stock rose 18% in the week before the print and closed flat after it. Consensus had already moved to about $51B, and buy-side expectations were likely higher.

Volatile Chop means range trading. Persistency is −0.114 and Volatility +0.230. In this regime moves have not extended. A $950–1,200 range around news is what this regime has historically produced.

Smaller estimate revisions. Morgan Stanley expects post-print estimate hikes to be "less so than prior quarters". The guide implies about +13% QoQ revenue, against +31% and +74% in the prior two quarters.

Targets cluster close to the price. MarketBeat's mean target is $1,348 (+27%) and the median of the September actions is about $1,500. Without new upgrades, the re-rating has to come from estimates alone.

What must happen in the window: peers are in line, the semiconductor index is flat, and MU trades $950–1,150 as the market digests the numbers.

Bear case

Second-derivative risk. The CFO said the pace of price increases "will moderate somewhat". In memory, stocks have historically peaked when price growth slows, not when prices fall. FQ1's +13% QoQ guide is a sharp step down from +31%.

Capex is rising across the industry. FY27 capex goes up from prior plans (FQ1 ~$11.5B net), and the US commitment rose to more than $250B through 2035. Samsung, SK Hynix and China's CXMT are also expanding. The supply response is the classic end of a memory cycle.

The last two prints were sold. After FQ2 (Mar), −14.0% in five sessions. After FQ3 (Jun), −14.9%, then a 39% drawdown from the 25 Jun high to 29 Jul. The stock has a pattern of selling good news.

Insiders are selling steadily. The CEO sold 40,000 shares a month in May–Aug (~$160M in total). EVPs Arnzen and Sadana sold a further ~$57M. There were no purchases.

Correlated, crowded semiconductor exposure. Beta is 1.43 to the semiconductor index and 3.3 to the S&P 500, and daily moves of 10% are common (−13% on 23 Jun, +18% on 30 Jul). A 10% semiconductor drawdown around TSMC or the FOMC has historically meant roughly 15% for MU.

What must happen in the window: SK Hynix or Samsung flag slower price growth, the semiconductor index rolls over, and MU breaks $950 toward the $850–900 range of the August base.

Every reported number improved. What remains is the cycle question, and over a month that is settled by peers and price checks.

02Composite Assessment

The finding: over the next 10–30 days, upward estimate revisions after a guide 8% above consensus should pull MU higher from about 7× run-rate earnings. That holds unless SK Hynix's late-October print or a semiconductor sell-off, at 1.4× beta, shows memory price growth peaking. That outcome would revive the sell-the-news pattern of the last two prints.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue Growth

9.8

+379% FQ4 YoY, 1st of 5; FQ1 guide +351% YoY

Profitability

9.7

87% gross, 81% operating margin; FY26 ROE 88%; record for memory

Valuation

7.0

14.3× TTM, ~7× run-rate vs 20.3× peer median; P/B 8.7× is a cycle-peak caveat

Earnings Quality

8.5

OCF 81% of revenue; 6/6 EPS beats; pricing-driven, so cyclical

Balance Sheet

9.5

$68.3B net cash; debt cut to $5.2B; current ratio 3.31

Competitive Position

8.5

Only US HBM producer; HBM4 to NVIDIA; #3 DRAM vs SK Hynix and Samsung

Structural Risk

4.0

Commodity pricing cycle; industry capex race; CXMT; export-control exposure

Regime Alignment

6.5

Own regime Volatile Chop (fade-prone); 12/14 market groups positive-Sharpe

Driver Independence

7.8

77.7% idiosyncratic; Sector Driver 1 carries the systematic share

Composite

8.3

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 · Risk 10 · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Execution quality uses Earnings Quality. Risk management is the average of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk (6.75). Competitive Position is shown for context and carries no weight. Weighted sum: 2.45 + 1.40 + 1.75 + 1.02 + 0.68 + 0.65 + 0.39 = 8.3.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

Guide well above consensus. FQ1 revenue of $61.5B against $57B and EPS of $38.15 against $35.40, with a gross margin of 86.25%.

Every business unit at a record. Core Data Center $18.0B (+56% QoQ, 90% gross margin), Cloud Memory $16.3B, Mobile & Client $13.1B, Auto & Embedded $6.8B. Data-centre SSDs are about $10B (more than 10× YoY).

Cash generation. FQ4 operating cash flow $44.0B (81% of revenue), FCF $33.2B. FY26 FCF $62.3B, a 5.2% yield on today's market cap.

Contracted demand. Most CY2027 HBM supply is agreed at higher prices. Strategic agreements cover 35%+ of revenue through 2030.

Cheapest growth in the group. PEG 0.16 (vendor) against a 0.52 peer median. P/E 14.3× against 23.6× for Sandisk and 16.9× for WDC.

Loses

Growth is slowing. Guided QoQ growth falls to +13% from +31%. On a weekly basis, adjusting for the 14-week FQ4, it is about +22%.

Capex up. FQ1 net capex is ~$11.5B against $10.8B in FQ4, and the FY27 plan is raised. Operating expenses rise ~$2.5B in FY27.

Sell-the-news history. Average 5-day return after the last two prints was −14.5%. The 39% June–July drawdown followed a record quarter.

Insider supply. About $219M of executive sales from May to Aug 2026, with no buys. Insiders own 0.24% of shares.

Fade-prone regime. In MU's own Volatile Chop regime, the 21-day forward median was +8.9%, the weakest of its regimes over the year (Quiet Range +22.7%).

03Risk Factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Peer read-across from SK Hynix and Samsung. Samsung's preliminary Q3 (~7 Oct) and SK Hynix's Q3 (late Oct) will set the market's view of whether DRAM and HBM contract prices are still accelerating. Any sign of slower price growth would hit MU directly, because pricing explains nearly all of its margin expansion.

Semiconductor drawdown. At 1.43 beta to the semiconductor index (corr 0.82), TSMC's mid-October print and AI-capex headlines move MU more than its own news. A 10% semiconductor drawdown has historically meant about 14% for MU.

Post-print selling. After the March and June prints the stock fell about 14% within a week as holders took profits. This time there was no gap, but a 273% YTD gain still leaves a lot of profit to take.

Macro and rates. MU's worst current group regimes are Bonds mid and Bonds near in Volatile Trend (Sharpe −0.47 and −0.51). A rates shock around the 27–28 Oct FOMC is the historical risk channel.

Policy headlines. US chip tariffs and export controls on China, and any Chinese retaliation, can move memory stocks in a single session.

Structural context

The memory cycle. Memory prices have always mean-reverted when supply catches up. Management forecasts tightness through 2028, and the new fabs arrive 2027–2030, so the turn, if it comes, is a 2027+ event.

China's CXMT and Samsung HBM qualification. New HBM entrants could compress the HBM premium over 2027 contract cycles. That is not testable inside a month.

Customer concentration in AI. HBM and data-centre DRAM depend on hyperscaler and NVIDIA capex. A capex pause would take quarters to show up in contracted HBM.

Execution on a $250B+ build-out. Fab timelines, cost overruns and incentive clawbacks are multi-year risks.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Peer pricing read (SK Hynix / Samsung)	Competitive	Contract-price slowdown resets the cycle debate	Yes
Semiconductor drawdown	Macro	1.43 beta to the semiconductor index; AI-capex sentiment	Yes
Post-print profit-taking	Technical	Two −14% five-day moves after recent prints	Possible
Rates shock / FOMC	Macro	Bond-regime sensitivity; 3.3 beta to the S&P 500	Possible
Tariffs / export controls	Governance	Single-session policy repricing	Possible
Industry capex and supply response	Competitive	New capacity from 2027 onward	Structural
HBM entrants (CXMT, Samsung)	Competitive	HBM premium compression in 2027 contracts	Structural
AI-capex cycle	Macro	Hyperscaler spending pause	Structural

Micron's own balance sheet and results carry almost no risk inside the window. The risks that can bite in the next month arrive through peers, the semiconductor tape and the habit of selling good news.

04Earnings & Guidance Signals

FQ1 FY27 guide versus consensus: $61.5B of revenue and $38.15 of EPS against $57B and $35.40

Released 30 Sep 2026 after the close. Non-GAAP gross margin guide 86.25%; opex ~$2.06B. After-hours move about −0.8%.

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report Date	Revenue	vs Est.	EPS (dil.)	vs Est.	Stock Reaction
FQ4 FY26 (Sep-26, 14 wks)	30 Sep 2026	$54,230M	+6.2%	$32.87 (adj $33.42)	+5.0%	≈ −0.8% AH
FQ3 FY26 (May-26)	24 Jun 2026	$41,456M	+17.6%	$24.67 (adj $25.11)	+21.4%	+15.7%
FQ2 FY26 (Feb-26)	18 Mar 2026	$23,860M	Beat (wide)	$12.07 (adj $12.20)	+33.2%	−3.8%
FQ1 FY26 (Nov-25)	17 Dec 2025	$13,643M	Beat	$4.60 (adj $4.78)	+20.6%	+10.2%
FQ4 FY25 (Aug-25)	23 Sep 2025	$11,315M	Beat	$2.83 (adj $3.03)	+5.9%	−2.8%
FQ3 FY25 (May-25)	25 Jun 2025	$9,301M	Beat	$1.68 (adj $1.91)	+19.8%	−1.0%

All reports come after the close; the reaction is the next session's close-to-close move. FQ4 FY26's reaction is the after-hours indication only, as the 1 Oct session had not closed at the report date. EPS surprise is on adjusted EPS against consensus. Where only the direction of the revenue surprise was available, it is shown as "Beat". The five-day moves after the last two prints were −14.0% (Mar) and −14.9% (Jun).

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev Beat Rate	EPS Beat Rate	Guidance
MU	100% (6/6)	100% (6/6)	Above consensus 5 of last 5
SK Hynix (Q2 CY26)	Miss	Beat	Profit beat offset revenue miss
Sandisk / WDC / STX (Jun Q)	Beat	Beat	Raised on NAND / HDD pricing
Peer median (last Q)	Beat	Beat	—

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	~mid-Dec 2026	Outside the 10–30 day window
FQ1 FY27 revenue	$61.5B ± $1.5B	Consensus was ~$57B; 13-week quarter
FQ1 non-GAAP gross margin	~86.25%	Above the ~86% bear line
FQ1 non-GAAP EPS	$38.15 ± $1.00	Consensus ~$35.40
FQ1 opex (non-GAAP)	~$2.06B	FY27 opex +~$2.5B
FQ1 net capex	~$11.5B	FY27 raised vs prior plan
FY27 shape	QoQ growth	"Sequential revenue growth in each quarter"
Tax rate	~15.5%	—

The next Micron print is not in the window. Over the month, Micron's numbers matter only through the estimate revisions they force. Those revisions are large: about $3 of quarterly EPS above consensus, roughly $11 annualised.

05Analyst Outlook

Period	Source	View	Key Point
Sep 2026 (pre-print)	Morgan Stanley	Mixed	Overweight, $1,200. Expects post-print estimate hikes "less so than prior quarters"; duration debates "take longer to pay off"
Sep 2026	Citi, Baird, TD Cowen, UBS	Bullish	Targets raised to $1,300–1,625 on DRAM undersupply and contract pricing
Sep 2026	Wells Fargo	Mixed	Overweight kept but target cut to $1,400 from $1,525
Aug 2026	New Street / BMO / Zacks	Mixed	New Street upgrades to Buy ($1,250); BMO initiates Outperform ($1,300); Zacks downgrades to Hold
Jun–Jul 2026	Street-high calls	Bullish	Three $2,000 targets after the June print; two cut in August
Consensus	45–46 analysts	Bullish	40 Buy / 1 Strong Buy / 5 Hold / 0 Sell; mean $1,348 (MarketBeat) to $1,534 (Yahoo)

Sources: MarketBeat rating log, 24/7 Wall St., Stocktwits / Morgan Stanley note (29 Sep), Yahoo Finance consensus, retrieved 1 Oct 2026. Post-print revisions (1 Oct onward) were not yet visible at the report date.

06Insider & Board Activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal Read
21 Aug 2026	Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO	Sale	40,000	$959–990	$38.8M	Monthly 40k cadence; plan-like, mildly negative
18 Aug 2026	Sumit Sadana, EVP & CBO	Sale	15,000	$934.29	$14.0M	Discretionary-sized; negative
24 Jul 2026	Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO	Sale	40,000	$906–966	$37.3M	Same cadence
1 Jul 2026	April Arnzen, EVP	Sale	40,000	$1,077–1,096	$43.4M	Sold near the top; negative
30 Jun 2026	Lynn Dugle, Director	Sale + gift	1,300 + 700	$1,150.43	$1.5M	Small; no signal
26 Jun 2026	Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO	Sale	40,000	$1,128–1,192	$46.3M	Same cadence
29 May 2026	Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO	Sale	40,000	$942–979	$38.5M	Same cadence
FY2026	Company (buyback)	Repurchase	—	—	$650M	Token at a $1.2T cap; capital goes to capex

Source: SEC Form 4 filings via Yahoo Finance insider feed; FY26 buyback from the 8-K. The CEO's identical 40,000-share monthly sales suggest a 10b5-1 plan (not confirmed in the data). No open-market purchases by any insider in 2026. Insider ownership is 0.24%. Total executive sales May–Aug ≈ $219M (derived).

07Recent News & Catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
~mid-Dec 2026	Micron (expected)	FQ1 FY27 results against the $61.5B / $38.15 guide	No
29 Oct 2026	Micron 8-K	$0.15 dividend paid (record date 14 Oct)	Yes
27–28 Oct 2026	Federal Reserve	FOMC; rates sensitivity runs through the bond regimes (section 12)	Yes
Late Oct 2026	SK Hynix (expected)	Q3 CY26 results; the key DRAM / HBM contract-pricing read for the window	Yes
Mid-Oct 2026	TSMC / ASML (expected)	Q3 results; AI-capex and equipment-order read-through for the semiconductor complex	Yes
14 Oct 2026	Micron 8-K	Dividend record date ($0.15)	Yes
~7 Oct 2026	Samsung (expected)	Preliminary Q3 operating profit; first peer data point after Micron	Just before
Early Oct 2026	Sell-side	Estimate and target revisions after the print	Early window
30 Sep 2026	Micron 8-K	Record FQ4: $54.23B revenue, 87.0% gross margin, $33.42 adj. EPS; FQ1 guide $61.5B / $38.15; US investment commitment raised to more than $250B	No, sets the base
22 Sep 2026	24/7 Wall St.	MU closes $1,096.16 after a +5% session, capping an +18% week before earnings	No

The window is 10–30 days from the 1 Oct 2026 report date (11 – 31 Oct 2026). Items are ordered newest (future) first. Dates marked "expected" are based on prior-year patterns and are unconfirmed.

Catalysts inside the window

Early–mid Oct: sell-side estimate and target resets after a guide 8% above consensus. 14 Oct: dividend record date, which does not move the stock. Mid-Oct: TSMC and ASML Q3, which drive the semiconductor tape MU moves with at 1.4× beta. Late Oct: SK Hynix Q3, the deciding pricing read on DRAM and HBM. 27–28 Oct: FOMC, the rates channel.

08Ratings & Price Targets — Peer Frame

Company	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY)	Source View	News Sentiment
MU	$1,065.11	$1.20T	$133.19B	9.0×	+379%	Strong Buy · $1,534	Positive
SK Hynix (SKHY)	$184.15	$1.31T	₩189.2T	6.9×	+257%	Strong Buy	Positive
Sandisk (SNDK)	$1,739.89	$254.8B	$20.25B	12.6×	+372%	Buy · $2,137	Positive
Western Digital (WDC)	$454.46	$163.9B	$12.92B	12.7×	+44%	Buy · $665	Mixed
Seagate (STX)	$922.34	$209.7B	$12.20B	17.2×	+49%	Buy · $1,125	Mixed
Peer median	—	$232.3B	$12.92B	12.6×	+153%	—	—

Prices at 30 Sep 2026 close. MU figures come from its FQ4 FY26 8-K (FY to 3 Sep 2026). Peer figures are vendor TTM to Jun 2026. SK Hynix trades as a US-listed ADR (SKHY); its revenue is in KRW and its P/S is on a local basis, so it is excluded from the revenue median. Samsung is the third major DRAM maker but is not US-listed and is not shown.

8.5Analyst Price Targets — Multiple Sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / Source	Current Target	Previous	Date	Implied Return	Rating	Direction
Morgan Stanley	$1,200	$1,200	29 Sep 2026	+12.7%	Overweight	► Maintained
Wedbush (Bryson)	$1,400	$1,400	28 Sep 2026	+31.4%	Outperform	► Maintained
Baird (Gerra)	$1,520	$1,280	28 Sep 2026	+42.7%	Outperform	▲ Raised
Rosenblatt (Cassidy)	$1,500	$1,500	24 Sep 2026	+40.8%	Buy	► Maintained
UBS (Arcuri)	$1,625	—	23 Sep 2026	+52.6%	Buy	▲ Raised
Wells Fargo (Rakers)	$1,400	$1,525	23 Sep 2026	+31.4%	Overweight	▼ Lowered
Citi (Malik)	$1,300	$1,150	23 Sep 2026	+22.1%	Buy	▲ Raised
RBC (Pajjuri)	$1,500	$1,500	18 Sep 2026	+40.8%	Outperform	► Maintained
TD Cowen (Sankar)	$1,600	$1,500	16 Sep 2026	+50.2%	Buy	▲ Raised
Mizuho (Rakesh)	$1,300	$1,375	25 Aug 2026	+22.1%	Outperform	▼ Lowered

Implied return is measured against the $1,065.11 close on 30 Sep 2026. Sources: MarketBeat rating log; Morgan Stanley via Stocktwits (29 Sep). UBS's prior target is listed as $535 by MarketBeat, which looks stale, so it is shown as "—". All actions predate the 30 Sep print.

Metric	Value
Last close	$1,065.11
Consensus target	$1,533.80
Median target	$1,550.00
High target	$2,200.00
Low target	$361.00
Implied upside to consensus	+44.0%
Implied downside to low	−66.1%
Analysts contributing	46

Yahoo Finance consensus, 1 Oct 2026. MarketBeat shows a $1,348 mean, $2,000 high and $300 low. The low targets are stale pre-cycle calls.

Target range vs last close ($1,065.11)

$361

$1,534

$1,550

$2,200

09Fundamental Financial Analysis — Company Trends & Peer Comparison

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (diluted)	Gross Margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs Est.	Next-day Reaction
FQ3 FY25 (May-25)	$9,301M	+15.5%	+36.6%	$1.68	37.7%	$4,330M	46.6%	Beat	−1.0%
FQ4 FY25 (Aug-25)	$11,315M	+21.7%	+46.0%	$2.83	44.7%	$5,904M	52.2%	Beat	−2.8%
FQ1 FY26 (Nov-25)	$13,643M	+20.6%	+56.7%	$4.60	56.0%	$8,347M	61.2%	Beat	+10.2%
FQ2 FY26 (Feb-26)	$23,860M	+74.9%	+196%	$12.07	74.4%	$18,478M	77.4%	Beat	−3.8%
FQ3 FY26 (May-26)	$41,456M	+73.7%	+346%	$24.67	84.6%	$35,576M	85.8%	Beat	+15.7%
FQ4 FY26 (Sep-26, 14 wks)	$54,230M	+30.8%	+379%	$32.87	86.8%	~$46,250M^e	~85.3%^e	Beat	≈ −0.8% AH
FQ1 FY27 guide	$61,500M	+13.4%	+351%	$37.84 GAAP / $38.15 adj	~85.95%	~$53,150M^e	~86.4%^e	Above cons.	—

FY ends on the Thursday closest to 31 Aug. FY26 ran 53 weeks, and FQ4 (29 May – 3 Sep 2026) ran 14, derived from period dates. Gross margin is GAAP. Adj. EBITDA for FQ3 FY25 – FQ3 FY26 is vendor EBITDA. FQ4 FY26 and the FQ1 guide (marked ^e) are operating income plus estimated D&A of ~$2.5B and ~$2.6B, so the FQ1 margin figure is approximate.

Revenue $M · own band

GAAP operating margin % · own band

Revenue rose 5.8× in five quarters. Operating margin flattened at 80–81% over the last two, so further gains come from volume and price rather than mix.

9.1 — Liquidity ratios

Metric	3 Sep 2026	28 Aug 2025	29 Aug 2024	Target / Status
Current ratio	3.31	2.52	2.64	1.5–3.0 healthy · above range
Quick ratio	2.90	1.71	1.59	≥1.0 healthy · strong
Cash ratio	1.58	0.90	0.88	Cash + ST investments $43.4B; total cash and investments $73.5B

Receivables of $36.2B (about two months of FQ4 revenue) are the largest current asset. That is normal at this growth rate but worth watching if pricing turns.

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current Ratio	Net Cash Position	Liquidity Status
MU (3 Sep 26)	3.31	+$68.3B	Strongest
SK Hynix (Jun 26)	2.59	+₩66.9T	Strong
Sandisk (Jun 26)	2.29	+$4.6B	Strong
WDC (Jun 26)	1.33	+$0.4B	Adequate
Seagate (Jun 26)	1.67	−$2.2B	Adequate; levered
Peer median	1.98	+$0.4B (USD peers)	—

9.2 — Leverage & solvency

Metric	3 Sep 2026	28 Aug 2025	29 Aug 2024	Target / Status
Debt-to-equity	0.04	0.22	0.26	Lower is safer · minimal
Debt-to-assets	0.03	0.15	0.17	<0.5 conservative · passed
Interest coverage	>900× (FY26)	20.6×	2.3×	>2.5 healthy · FQ3–FQ4 interest expense $0
Debt service coverage	~182× (FY26)	17.8×	9.6×	>1.25 healthy · n/m at this level

Debt excludes leases: $5.18B (3 Sep 26), ~$12.1B (FY25), ~$11.7B (FY24). DSCR = EBITDA ÷ (interest + current debt). FY26 EBITDA is ~$108.6B (operating income plus ~$9.3B D&A, derived).

9.3 — Profitability ratios

Metric	FQ4 FY26	TTM (= FY26)	FQ4 FY25	FY2025	FY2024	Trend
Gross margin	86.8%	80.7%	44.7%	39.8%	22.4%	▲
Operating margin	80.7%	74.6%	32.6%	26.2%	5.2%	▲
Net margin	69.5%	63.8%	28.3%	22.8%	3.1%	▲
Adj. EBITDA margin	~85.3%^e	~81.6%^e	52.2%	49.4%	38.2%	▲
Return on assets	19.2% (q)	61.0%	3.9% (q)	11.2%	1.2%	▲
Return on equity	27.2% (q)	88.3%	5.9% (q)	17.2%	1.7%	▲
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	—	63.8% × 0.96 × 1.45	—	22.8% × 0.49 × 1.53	3.1% × 0.38 × 1.50	Margin-driven, unlevered

(q) = single quarter, not annualised. Averages use opening and closing balances. Equity rose from $54.2B to $138.4B in a year. Almost all of the ROE expansion comes from net margin (3% to 64%) and asset turnover, not leverage.

Peer comparison	Gross	Op Margin	Net Margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Profitability Rank
MU (FY26)	80.7%	74.6%	63.8%	~81.6%	88.3%	2 of 5
SK Hynix	76.3%	76.3%	85.6%	75.9%	92.7%	1 of 5
Sandisk	71.5%	78.5%	56.5%	62.3%	91.6%	3 of 5
WDC	48.9%	43.6%	72.9%	38.7%	130.9%	4 of 5
Seagate	45.6%	43.1%	26.1%	36.9%	n/m	5 of 5
Peer median	60.2%	60.0%	64.7%	50.5%	92.7%	—

Peers are vendor TTM to Jun 2026, a quarter behind MU, which flatters MU against peers mid-upcycle. WDC's net margin includes non-operating gains. SK Hynix's net margin exceeds its operating margin because of non-operating items. Seagate's ROE (372%) reflects a thin equity base and is excluded.

9.4 — Efficiency & growth

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year	Comment
Asset turnover	0.96	0.49 (FY25)	Doubled on price-driven revenue
Revenue per employee	$2.51M	~$0.71M (FY25)	~53,000 staff (vendor; FY25 on same base)
EPS growth (FY26, GAAP)	+879%	+984% (FY25)	$74.33 vs $7.59 vs $0.70
EPS growth (FQ4 YoY)	+1,061%	—	$32.87 vs $2.83
Dividend yield	0.06%	0.4%	$0.15/qtr unchanged; price up 5.5×
FCF yield (FY26)	5.2%	0.1% (FY25)	FCF $62.3B; FQ4 alone $33.2B

Company	Asset Turnover	Rev / Employee	Employees	EPS Growth	Div Yield	Growth Rank
MU	0.96	$2.51M	~53,000	+1,061%	0.06%	1 of 5
SK Hynix	n/a	₩5.2B	36,042	+1,272%	0.08%	3 of 5
Sandisk	0.90	$1.82M	11,100	n/a	—	2 of 5
WDC	0.93	$0.32M	40,000	+984%	0.13%	5 of 5
Seagate	1.22	$0.41M	30,000	+149%	0.32%	4 of 5
Peer median	0.93	$0.41M	33,021	+984%	0.13%	—

Growth rank is by latest-quarter YoY revenue growth. Peer asset turnover is TTM revenue over latest total assets (derived). Peer EPS growth is the vendor's quarterly YoY figure.

Platform metrics

Metric	FQ4 FY26	FQ4 FY25	YoY	Comment
DRAM revenue	$39.8B	~$9.0B	~+342%	73% of revenue; ASP +high-teens % QoQ; bits +mid-single-digit
NAND revenue	$14.1B	~$2.3B	~+513%	ASP ~+30% QoQ; bits ~+10%
Core Data Center (CDBU)	$18.0B	—	+56% QoQ	90% gross margin
Cloud Memory (CMBU, incl. HBM)	$16.3B	—	+18% QoQ	83% gross margin; CY27 HBM mostly contracted
Mobile & Client (MCBU)	$13.1B	—	—	90% gross margin
Automotive & Embedded (AEBU)	$6.8B	—	—	84% gross margin
Data-centre SSD revenue	~$10B	<$1B	>10×	Fastest-growing line
Operating cash flow	$44.0B	$5.7B	+667%	81% of revenue
Strategic customer agreements	26	—	—	35%+ of revenue to 2030; $32B commitments

Business units were reorganised in FY26, so year-ago unit splits are not comparable. FQ4 FY25 DRAM and NAND revenue are approximate (marked ~).

9.5 — Market valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM (GAAP)	14.3×	14.1× on adj. TTM $75.51; peer median 20.3×
P/E on FQ1 guide × 4	7.0×	$152.6 run-rate EPS (derived)
Price / book	8.7×	Equity $138.4B; past cycle peaks were ~2–3×
Price / sales TTM	9.0×	Peer median 12.6×
EV / EBITDA TTM	10.4×	EV $1.13T; ~5.3× on FQ1 run-rate
PEG	0.16	Vendor; growth this high makes PEG unreliable
FCF yield FY26	5.2%	On a $1.20T market cap

Price / sales	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	vs Peer Median
MU	$1,065.11	$1.20T	$133.19B	9.0×	−28%
SK Hynix	$184.15	$1.31T	₩189.2T	6.9×	−45%
Sandisk	$1,739.89	$254.8B	$20.25B	12.6×	0%
WDC	$454.46	$163.9B	$12.92B	12.7×	+1%
Seagate	$922.34	$209.7B	$12.20B	17.2×	+36%
Peer median	—	$232.3B	$12.92B	12.6×	—

Earnings & growth-adjusted	TTM EPS	P/E TTM	Rev Growth	PEG	Assessment
MU	$74.33	14.3×	+379%	0.16	Cheapest on run-rate; priced as peak
SK Hynix	$16.56 (ADR)	11.1×	+257%	0.27	HBM leader, cheaper still
Sandisk	$73.77	23.6×	+372%	n/a	NAND pure play, premium
WDC	$26.94	16.9×	+44%	0.86	HDD; slower growth
Seagate	$14.02	65.8×	+49%	0.52	Most expensive on trailing
Peer median	—	20.3×	+153%	0.52	—

On every earnings-based multiple MU looks cheap. The market is pricing these as peak-cycle earnings, which is why P/B (8.7×) is the multiple that matters. Over the next month the valuation question will not be settled. The multiple expands only if peers confirm that pricing is still rising.

10Regime Analysis — Persistency & Volatility

−0.114

Persistency, placing MU in Q2 Volatile Chop for 8 sessions as volatility rises into the print

289 daily observations, 7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026. Volatility +0.230. As of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date. Status: CURRENT.

10.1 — Regime trace

MU — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (289 daily points, oldest faint → newest bright)

Q1 Volatile trend Q2 Volatile chop Q3 Quiet range Q4 Quiet drift Current (30 Sep)

Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. Window 7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026, 289 observations (145 plotted after thinning). As of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the 1 Oct 2026 report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std Dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	−0.1136	−0.0757	0.0670	−0.2929	0.0527	19.0	Random / Neutral, close to Mildly Mean-Reverting. Moves have tended to retrace despite the 5.5× rise
Volatility	0.2301	0.0017	0.2891	−0.4965	0.5000	73.0	Elevated Vol. Up from −0.027 on 18 Sep as the stock ran +18% into the print

Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 8 consecutive periods. Neither reading is within 0.05 of an axis, so the quadrant call is not borderline. As of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind.

10.3 — Regime occupancy & transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of period	Character
Q1	Volatile trend	3.5%	Rare; brief breakout bursts
Q2	Volatile chop	47.1%	Whipsaw; fading extremes has worked better
Q3	Quiet range	49.5%	Mean-reverting range; best forward returns over the year
Q4	Quiet drift	0.0%	Never visited; Persistency rarely above zero

Transition	Count	Note
Quiet range → Volatile chop	3	Volatility expansion around prints and drawdowns
Volatile chop → Quiet range	2	Calm returns after events
Volatile chop → Volatile trend	2	Persistency briefly above zero
Volatile trend → Volatile chop	2	Reverted within days

In MU's own regimes over the year, the 21-day forward median return was +22.7% from Quiet Range (140 days, 88% positive) and +8.9% from Volatile Chop (118 days, 70% positive). Every bucket was positive in a +550% year, so read these comparatively, not absolutely. As of 30 Sep 2026.

Persistency moves slowly.

The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally. MU's Persistency has stayed at or below zero for most of a year in which the stock rose 5.5×: the gains came in jumps, not a smooth trend. These statistics describe 7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026 and are not predictions.

11Driver Exposure — Market & Sector Covariation

77.7

of daily variance is company-specific; the rest runs through Sector Driver 1

Regression on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 1,253 overlapping observations, 4 Oct 2021 – 30 Sep 2026. Drivers as of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind.

11.1 — Driver correlation table

Factor	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d (current)	Rolling Min	Rolling Max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	−0.051	0.3	−0.135	−0.414	0.442	Variable	Negative
Market Driver 2	0.000	0.0	−0.108	−0.363	0.310	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 3	0.031	0.1	0.178	−0.487	0.400	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 4	−0.001	0.0	0.023	−0.349	0.422	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 5	0.003	0.0	0.137	−0.449	0.335	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.469	22.0	−0.351	−0.762	−0.175	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 2	0.008	0.0	0.441	−0.552	0.613	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 3	−0.059	0.3	0.209	−0.505	0.549	Variable	Negative

Methodology: daily log returns of MU against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. Full window 4 Oct 2021 – 30 Sep 2026, 1,253 observations; rolling window 60 days. Correlations are not coloured. Sector Driver 1's rolling correlation stayed negative throughout (−0.76 to −0.18). Sector Driver 2's current reading (+0.441) is near the top of its range, so a secondary sector factor currently matters more than usual. Drivers as of 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic decomposition

Systematic 22.3%

Idiosyncratic 77.7%

Factor	Raw Beta	Standardised Beta	Share of Explained Variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	−0.00011	−0.055	1.4%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.45855	−0.470	98.6%

MU behaves as a sector proxy layered on a large company-specific component. Market Driver 1 explains almost nothing, and the systematic share runs through the sector rotation captured by Sector Driver 1. For the next 10–30 days, an index hedge would not offset MU's risk. The memory and semiconductor complex, read through SK Hynix, TSMC and the semiconductor index, decides the month.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 (blue) and Sector Driver 1 (orange) against MU daily returns, Sep 2024 – Sep 2026. Current Sector Driver 1 reading −0.351 against a −0.49 full-period average, so the sector link has loosened slightly. Market Driver 1 is −0.135 against a −0.02 average. There is no inversion. As of 30 Sep 2026.

12Performance by Market Regime

MU daily returns bucketed by each market group's regime quadrant. Window 8 Feb 2022 – 29 Sep 2026, 1,163 overlapping days. No bucket falls below 30 days, so none is marked thin. MU rose about 13× over this window, so almost every bucket shows large positive returns. Read the differences between regimes, not the levels.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q1 Volatile Trend	170	14.6%	+234.0%	+497.5%	63.7%	7.80	57.1%	+17.64%	−14.22%
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	291	25.0%	+139.6%	+113.2%	58.2%	1.94	53.6%	+16.85%	−11.50%
Q2 Volatile Chop	412	35.4%	+56.8%	+31.7%	57.6%	0.55	50.2%	+17.24%	−17.55%
Q3 Quiet Range	291	25.0%	+4.9%	+4.3%	53.2%	0.08	48.5%	+10.00%	−17.65%

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	227	19.5%	+236.8%	+285.0%	58.0%	4.92	56.4%	+16.85%	−11.50%
Q1 Volatile Trend	174	14.9%	+90.2%	+153.8%	69.3%	2.22	50.6%	+17.64%	−14.22%
Q2 Volatile Chop	408	35.1%	+83.1%	+45.3%	56.8%	0.80	51.7%	+17.24%	−17.55%
Q3 Quiet Range	355	30.5%	+12.3%	+8.6%	51.8%	0.17	49.0%	+10.00%	−17.65%

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Q1 Volatile Trend	140	12.0%	+116.5%	+301.7%	61.3%	4.92	47.9%	+17.64%	−14.22%
Q4 Quiet Drift Current	239	20.5%	+82.5%	+88.6%	43.4%	2.04	51.9%	+13.22%	−7.38%
Q2 Volatile Chop	442	38.0%	+295.4%	+119.0%	59.9%	1.99	53.8%	+17.24%	−14.13%
Q3 Quiet Range	343	29.5%	−15.7%	−11.8%	61.7%	−0.19	50.1%	+16.85%	−17.65%

Best row green, worst row red, ranked by Sharpe. Cumulative return is the compounded MU return across all days spent in that regime. Market regimes as of 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.2 — Cross-group summary grid

Group	Current Regime	Best Regime for MU	Worst Regime	Cum. Return in Current	Sharpe in Current	Sharpe Spread	Days in Current
US market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	+139.6%	1.94	7.72	18
SP500	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q3 Quiet Range	+236.8%	4.92	4.75	18
Global market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	+82.5%	2.04	5.11	12
Technology	Q3 Quiet Range	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q2 Volatile Chop	+180.3%	1.41	5.56	91
Financials	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q3 Quiet Range	Q2 Volatile Chop	+38.9%	1.23	3.83	6
Energy	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q4 Quiet Drift	+41.1%	0.54	3.33	67
Utilities	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	+224.7%	5.25	5.62	12
Europe	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q4 Quiet Drift	+260.0%	4.71	5.11	11
Gold	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q4 Quiet Drift	+602.5%	2.76	2.40	271
VIX Near	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q2 Volatile Chop	+125.6%	7.08	6.64	21
VIX Mid	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	+207.5%	2.28	2.48	102
Bonds near	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q4 Quiet Drift	Q1 Volatile Trend	−16.0%	−0.51	3.19	6
Bonds mid	Q1 Volatile Trend	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q1 Volatile Trend	−37.2%	−0.47	5.16	8
Bonds long	Q2 Volatile Chop	Q3 Quiet Range	Q4 Quiet Drift	+5.7%	0.08	5.34	1

All 14 mapped groups. Groups in bold have Sharpe spreads above 1.5, meaning MU is materially sensitive to that group's regime. Sharpe spread is best-regime Sharpe minus worst-regime Sharpe. Every group is bold here because MU's large trend inflates the dispersion between regimes. Market regimes as of 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.3 — Sensitivity callouts

Most sensitive to the US market regime (Sharpe spread 7.72). MU returned an annualised +497.5% (Sharpe 7.80) while the US market was in Volatile Trend, against +4.3% (0.08) in Quiet Range. The current Quiet Drift ranks second (Sharpe 1.94, +113.2% annualised).

What has historically followed the current US market regime over 10–30 days. In the 273 days the US market was in Quiet Drift, MU's 21-day forward return had a median of +6.3% and was positive 65.9% of the time. Unconditionally, the median was +3.7% and positive 59.3% of the time. With SP500 in Quiet Drift the figures were +8.8% and 75.1%. This is history, not a forecast.

Currently in a favourable configuration. SP500 (Quiet Drift), VIX Near (Quiet Drift, Sharpe 7.08), Europe (Volatile Trend), Utilities (Volatile Chop) and Gold (Volatile Chop) all sit in MU's best regime for that group. 12 of 14 groups sit in a regime with a positive MU Sharpe.

The exception is rates. Bonds mid and Bonds near are both in Volatile Trend, MU's worst regime for each (Sharpe −0.47 and −0.51, about −25% annualised). Trending yields have been MU's main historical headwind, which makes the 27–28 Oct FOMC the regime-relevant event.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 8 Feb 2022 – 29 Sep 2026, a window dominated by MU's 13-fold rise, not the future. No regime bucket here holds fewer than 30 days. Where one does, annualised figures should not be relied on. Overlapping forward windows overstate the independence of observations. Market regime series as of 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date.

13News & Market Narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
30 Sep 26	Micron posts record $54.23B FQ4 revenue against the $51.07B LSEG consensus; adj. EPS $33.42 against $31.61 (BigGo / LSEG)	Positive
30 Sep 26	FQ1 guide of $61.5B and $38.15 tops the $57B and $35.40 consensus; gross margin guided ~86.25%	Positive
30 Sep 26	Shares slip about 0.8% after hours despite the beat-and-raise (Investing.com)	Mixed
30 Sep 26	Management: DRAM and NAND supply constrained through 2027–28; does "not foresee" a return to balance; price increases to "moderate somewhat"	Mixed
30 Sep 26	US investment commitment raised to more than $250B through 2035; FY27 capex raised; custom HBM4E with NVIDIA	Neutral
29 Sep 26	Morgan Stanley: post-earnings estimate hikes may lag prior quarters (Stocktwits)	Mixed
28 Sep 26	Baird raises target to $1,520 from $1,280; Wedbush reiterates $1,400	Positive
23 Sep 26	Citi lifts target to $1,300 on stronger DRAM pricing and undersupply; Wells Fargo trims to $1,400 (24/7 Wall St.)	Mixed
22 Sep 26	MU closes at $1,096 after +5%, capping an +18% week into earnings (24/7 Wall St.)	Positive
29 Jul 26	MU down more than 30% from its June peak on profit-taking, CEO sales and Chinese supply worries (Mitrade)	Negative
24 Jul 26	SK Hynix and Micron sink 6%, Sandisk −9%, as a Korea chip sell-off hits US memory stocks (24/7 Wall St.)	Negative
24 Jun 26	FQ3 blowout: revenue $41.46B, 18% above consensus; shares +15.7% next day, then −14.9% over five sessions	Mixed

12 rows, newest first. The narrative has moved from "how high can margins go" to "how long can this last". The print answered the first question, and the second will be argued in October through peer results.

14Company Snapshot

Field	Micron Technology, Inc.	Peer context
Legal name	Micron Technology, Inc.	—
Exchange / IPO	NASDAQ: MU · IPO 1984	SK Hynix KRX + US ADR (SKHY); SNDK spun off from WDC 2025
Domicile	Delaware, USA; HQ Boise, Idaho	SK Hynix Icheon, Korea; Samsung Suwon, Korea
Sector / industry	Information Technology · Semiconductors (DRAM, NAND, HBM)	—
Market cap	$1.20T (1.129B shares × $1,065.11)	Level with SK Hynix ($1.31T); ~5× Sandisk
Employees	~53,000 (vendor)	SK Hynix 36,042; WDC 40,000; STX 30,000; SNDK 11,100
TTM revenue	$133.19B (FY26 to 3 Sep 2026, 53 weeks)	Largest US memory maker; ~6.6× Sandisk
Revenue model	DRAM 73% / NAND 26% (FQ4); sold via contracts and strategic agreements to hyperscalers, GPU makers, PC/mobile OEMs and auto	SK Hynix DRAM/HBM-heavy; Sandisk NAND-only; WDC/STX HDD
Key differentiators	Only US-based HBM producer; HBM4 / custom HBM4E with NVIDIA; 1-gamma DRAM node; US fabs in Idaho and New York backed by CHIPS incentives	SK Hynix leads HBM share; Samsung largest DRAM capacity
CIK	0000723125	—
Website	micron.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Bullish · high variance

Micron has just guided 8% above consensus at an 86% gross margin, with net cash of $68B and about 7× run-rate earnings. The market's flat reaction leaves no gap to fade. The evidence favours estimates and targets pulling the stock back toward the $1,214 June high inside the window. The two previous prints, a Volatile Chop regime and a 1.4× semiconductor beta mean the path will be volatile. If SK Hynix or Samsung signal that memory price growth is slowing in late October, or the semiconductor index breaks lower, the view flips to bearish. In that case the June–July pattern of a 30%+ drawdown after a record quarter becomes the template.

Volatility Farm

1 · Daily prices and volumes for MU, SNDK, WDC, STX, NVDA, AMD, the semiconductor index ETF and SPY from the Yahoo Finance chart feed (used in place of the Massive API for bulk history). Last completed session 30 Sep 2026 close. After-hours indication from Investing.com. Peer market caps and TTM ratios are vendor data (Yahoo Finance) to Jun 2026.
2 · Financial statements from Micron's FQ4 FY26 earnings release and 8-K (30 Sep 2026), prior 10-Qs and 8-Ks (FQ3 FY25 – FQ3 FY26) and FY24–FY25 annual statements. Consensus and analyst actions from LSEG via BigGo, MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance, 24/7 Wall St., FXStreet and Stocktwits. Insider data from SEC Form 4 via Yahoo Finance.
3 · Persistency and Volatility from the Trader workbook tab Individual regimes daily (7 Aug 2025 – 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind). Market regimes from Market regimes daily (to 29 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind). Market and Sector Drivers from the Market and Sector driver tabs (to 30 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind). Freshness status: CURRENT.
4 · Derived rather than reported: 14-week FQ4 / 53-week FY26 (from period dates) and the weekly growth rates; market cap, EV, net cash, EV/EBITDA, P/E on annualised guidance, P/B, P/S, FCF yield; FY26 and FQ4 EBITDA (operating income plus estimated D&A, marked ^e); FQ1 FY27 EBITDA estimate; every ratio in 9.1–9.4; FY24–FY25 debt ex-leases; peer asset turnover, medians and ranks; revenue per employee for FY25 on the current headcount; FQ4 FY25 DRAM/NAND split (approximate); insider sale totals; forward-return statistics and cumulative regime returns in sections 10 and 12; betas to the semiconductor index and the S&P 500.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 1 Oct 2026 (11 – 31 Oct 2026). Regime and driver statistics describe their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.

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