Close 24 Sep 2026
$197.68
A sixth straight quarter of beating consensus lifted Cintas’s FY2027 revenue and adjusted-EPS guidance again on 23 September, yet the stock round-tripped a same-day 3.4% drop and a next-day +2.97% rally to close net −0.56% across the two sessions — a shrug from a market that had already priced the quality into a 39.0× trailing multiple. Over the next 10–30 days the company’s own numbers are not the swing factor: the ~$5.5 billion UniFirst acquisition remains stuck in FTC antitrust review with no fixed timeline, and UniFirst shares trade 16–11% below the deal’s implied value — a spread wide enough to say the market is pricing real completion or timing risk, not just process. A move on that review, in either direction, is the single event most likely to reprice CTAS before 25 October.
This report describes the conditions CTAS is likely to trade in over the next 10–30 days, not the long-run value of the business. Fundamentals are context for how much room the price has; the regime and driver sections (10–12) carry the most weight. CTAS itself is not covered by the workbook’s ticker-level regime series (see §10); the Market/Sector Driver and market-regime series that this report does rely on are current — 1 and 2 trading days behind, respectively.
Daily closes, Massive market-data API. Market cap, P/S and P/E use the 399.52M actual shares outstanding reported at 31 Aug 2026 (Q1 FY2027 balance sheet); Net debt is total consolidated debt less cash and short-term investments.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | Closed at $197.68 on 24 Sep 2026, down 4.7% over 30 days but up 5.1% year to date, 9.8% below the $219.17 intraday high (29 Jul) and 22.7% above the $161.16 intraday low (13 May). It sits 2.3% below its 50-day ($202.40) and 5.3% above its 200-day ($187.76) average, closed lower in 6 of the last 10 sessions, and its 22-day return sits in the 22nd percentile of the past two years — weak but not extreme (the worst 22-day stretch on record was −19.4%, Jan 2025). | Mixed |
| Revenue growth | Q1 FY2027 revenue $3.01B, +10.9% YoY (8.9% organic) — the sixth straight quarter of double-digit-adjacent growth and a beat of the ~$2.98B consensus. FY2027 guidance was raised to $12.15–$12.27B (from $12.10–$12.25B), implying 7.9–8.9% growth over FY2026. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Gross margin hit a record 51.5% (+120bp YoY), operating margin a record 23.6%; TTM net margin 17.8% and TTM EBITDA margin 26.6%e are the highest of any of the four peers compared in §9 by a wide margin (next-best is UniFirst at 4.6% net). | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 39.0× trailing GAAP earnings and 34.7× forward consensus against a 38.0×/19.8× peer median; 6.83× sales is the richest multiple of the five names compared (peer median 0.70×). Only ABM Industries (17.99×/11.72×) is unambiguously cheaper on every metric; the premium reflects best-in-class margins, not a bargain. | Mixed |
| Balance sheet | Net debt $2.19B against TTM EBITDA of $3.08Be is roughly 0.71×e — low leverage with ample capacity for the pending UniFirst deal. The current ratio fall to 1.45 (from 1.98 at Feb-26) is a bond-maturity technicality, not stress: excluding the $0.999B of 3.700% notes due 1 Apr 2027 reclassified to current, the ratio would be 2.28 — higher than Feb-26. | Bullish |
| Regime state | CTAS is not covered by the workbook’s ticker-level Persistency/Volatility series (absent from both the individual and tracked regime tabs — see §10). Realised volatility is unremarkable: 20.2% over 21 days against 23.4% over the past year. | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 90.2% idiosyncratic; the two primary drivers together explain only 9.8% of daily variance (Market Driver 1 ≈0.1%, Sector Driver 1 9.4%). Sector Driver 1’s rolling correlation has flipped from negative to 0.134 since around July 2026. Drivers as of 24 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind. | Neutral |
| Key risk (next 10–30 days) | The FTC Second Request on the UniFirst acquisition (issued 11 Jun 2026) remains open with no disclosed timeline; management declined to detail its progress on the 23 Sep 2026 call “to avoid creating speculation.” UniFirst shares trade 16–11% below the $307.61 implied deal value, a market-priced signal of real completion or timing risk. | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | No CTAS earnings before the window closes (next report ≈mid-December 2026). Dated inside 25 Sep – 25 Oct: 1 Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI; 2 Oct September payrolls; 14 Oct CPI; 15 Oct PPI; a possible but unconfirmed UniFirst Q4 FY2026 print (~22 Oct, may not occur as a standalone report). The FTC ruling itself is undated and could land any day inside or outside the window. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed · FTC overhang The evidence favours the neutral case: execution has never been better and the balance sheet can easily fund the deal, but the stock already re-rated its beat-and-raise flat and the one dated-but-timeless event that can move it — the FTC’s ruling on UniFirst — has no fixed date. It turns bullish on a clean antitrust clearance; it turns bearish on a delay, divestiture demand, or renegotiation that widens the 16–11% arbitrage spread further. | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge. e marks a figure derived by the author rather than reported; each is listed in source 4 of the colophon.
Cintas is executing about as well as this business ever has — a sixth straight beat, record margins, guidance raised twice in a row — and the balance sheet has plenty of room for the pending UniFirst deal. None of that is the question for the next 10–30 days: the stock already priced the quarter (net roughly flat across the two sessions after the print), and the FTC’s undated ruling on UniFirst is the one live switch that can move it either way before 25 October.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days (25 Sep – 25 Oct 2026) for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6; higher is better on every row, so a low Structural Risk score means high structural risk. Composite 6.97 = 0.25 × Growth 8.0 + 0.20 × Valuation 3.5 + 0.18 × Profitability 9.0 + 0.12 × Execution 8.75 (mean of Earnings Quality and Competitive Position) + 0.10 × Risk 6.75 (mean of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk) + 0.10 × Regime 5.0 + 0.05 × Driver independence 8.5. Scores are the author’s judgement on the evidence shown.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open-ended FTC review of the UniFirst deal | Regulatory | Second Request issued 11 Jun 2026, no statutory end date; ~50% pro forma North American market share is the stated antitrust concern. | Yes |
| Wide UniFirst arbitrage spread | Event/M&A | UNF trades 16–11% below implied deal value; a market-priced signal that can re-rate both names on any news. | Yes |
| Full valuation after a round-tripped reaction | Valuation | 39.0×/34.7× vs 38.0×/19.8× peer median; net −0.56% move across the two sessions bracketing the beat-and-raise. | Possible |
| Unfavourable broad-market regime history | Macro/technical | US market and SP500 both in Quiet Drift; historical forward-10-session positivity 37%/42% vs 54% baseline; dated prints (ISM, payrolls, CPI, PPI) fall inside the window. | Possible |
| Post-close leverage and integration | Financial | ~1.5× pro forma net leverage expected at close; EPS-accretive only by end of second full fiscal year post-close. | Unlikely |
| Management transition | Governance | Rozakis promoted to President & COO 1 Aug 2026; first earnings cycle in the new structure. | Unlikely |
| Class-action litigation | Legal | Nationwide TCPA-type class action filed 23 Jun 2026, early stage, no ruling. | No |
| Debt maturity refinancing | Financial | $1.0B 3.700% notes due 1 Apr 2027 will need refinancing within two to three quarters of the window. | No |
Every risk that can plausibly bite inside the window traces back to one process — the FTC’s review of the UniFirst deal — and to the full valuation that leaves the stock more sensitive to any surprise, good or bad, than a cheaper name would be; the balance-sheet, integration and litigation risks that would dominate a multi-year thesis cannot resolve in 30 days either way.
| Quarter | Report Date | Revenue | vs Est. | EPS (dil.) | vs Est. | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2027 | 23 Sep 2026 | $3,014M | +1.1% | $1.36 | +3.0% | −3.4% / +3.0% |
| Q4 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | $2,905M | +1.2% | $1.26 | +4.0% | +4.4% / +7.2% |
| Q3 2026 | 25 Mar 2026 | $2,841M | +0.8% | $1.24 | in line | −0.7% / −4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 18 Dec 2025 | $2,800M | +1.1% | $1.21 | +0.8% | +1.3% / −1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | 24 Sep 2025 | $2,718M | +0.7% | $1.20 | +0.8% | −0.3% / +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | 17 Jul 2025 | $2,668M | +1.4% | $1.09 | +1.9% | +3.7% / +0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | 26 Mar 2025 | $2,609M | +0.3% | $1.13 | +7.6% | +5.8% / +0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | 19 Dec 2024 | $2,562M | +0.1% | $1.09 | +7.9% | −10.6% / +2.3% |
EPS (dil.) is GAAP diluted EPS. EPS vs Est. compares adjusted diluted EPS with consensus, because analysts forecast the adjusted, non-GAAP figure Cintas itself highlights: adjusted EPS is only disclosed as distinct from GAAP starting Q4 FY2026 (Q1 FY2027 adjusted $1.39 excludes $14.4M of UniFirst transaction costs; Q4 FY2026 adjusted $1.29 excluded a smaller discrete item). For the six prior quarters shown no adjusting items existed, so adjusted equals GAAP and the comparison is exact. Revenue vs Est. and Stock Reaction (release-day close-to-close, then next-day) are both on the reported basis. Minus signs are − (U+2212). Source: SEC 8-K press releases for revenue/EPS/margins, MarketBeat consensus for estimates.
| Company | Rev Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| CTAS | 8 of 8 · 100% | 7 of 8 · 88%† | Raised twice running |
Eight straight quarters, both lines: revenue beat consensus in all 8 (smallest margin +0.1%, Q2 FY2025); adjusted EPS beat in 7 of 8, with Q3 FY2026 landing exactly on consensus (†). Peer beat-rate figures were not part of this research pass, so no peer-median row is shown.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | ~mid-Dec 2026 | Outside the 10–30 day window. The FY2026 Q2 print landed 18 Dec 2025; Investing.com also points to a mid-December FQ2 FY2027 date. |
| FY2027 revenue guidance | $12.15–$12.27B | Raised from $12.10–$12.25B on 23 Sep — the second straight increase; implies 7.9–8.9% growth over FY2026’s $11.26B. |
| FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance | $5.45–$5.54 | Raised from $5.36–$5.50; implies 10.3–12.1% growth over FY2026 adjusted EPS of $4.94. Excludes UniFirst deal costs, any UniFirst contribution, and future buybacks. |
| Consensus EPS (Q2 FY2027) | ~$1.35–$1.36 | Investing.com; a November/December-timeframe estimate, outside the window either way. |
| Management outlook | Qualitative | CEO Schneider: “record revenue and record operating margin”; no change to sales-cycle assumptions; over two-thirds of new business comes from converting non-programmers rather than from price. |
| Dividend | $0.52 / qtr | +15.6% raise declared 28 Jul, already paid 15 Sep — before the window opens. Next declaration expected ~27–28 Oct, just after it closes. |
No CTAS report falls inside the window: the next one, roughly mid-December, lands seven-plus weeks after it closes on 25 Oct. What the window inherits instead is the market’s digestion of the 23 Sep print — an initial −3.4% “sell the guidance” reaction fully reversed by a +3.0% rally the next day as five analysts raised targets — so the earnings event itself is already priced in by 25 Sep; the open question for the next month is whether that verdict holds, not whether a new number arrives.
| Period | Source | View | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | StockAnalysis.com consensus (20 analysts) | Buy | Mean target $218.25, median $224.50, range $180–$250. 8 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. |
| Sep 2026 | MarketBeat consensus (14 analysts) | Moderate Buy | Mean target $214.00, range $180–$250. 1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell. |
| Sep 2026 | TipRanks consensus (13 analysts, trailing 3 months) | Moderate Buy | Mean target $218.73, range $180–$250. 9 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell. |
| Sep 2026 | MarketScreener consensus (20 analysts) | Outperform | Mean target $216.31, range $175–$250 — a proprietary rating scale, not a direct Buy/Hold mapping. |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Post-earnings target-raise cluster — UBS, Goldman Sachs, Baird, Truist | Buy / Outperform | Four firms raised targets the day after the print (UBS to $235, Goldman Sachs to $239, Baird to $222, Truist to $230); RBC held its $206. |
| 22–25 Sep 2026 | Bearish outlier — Citigroup | Sell | The only Sell rating in the set; Citigroup still raised its target to $180 from $175 the day before the print. Deutsche Bank and Oppenheimer both sit at Hold. |
Four consensus snapshots draw on different, overlapping analyst lists (20, 14, 13 and 20 names) and are reported separately rather than blended — yet all four cluster within an $11 band of mean/median targets ($214–$225). All four consensus reads are dated 24–25 Sep 2026, after the 23 Sep print. Individual-action rows are newest first; Section 8.5 has the full ten-action detail.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | Board / Melanie W. Barstad (director) | Will not stand for re-election at the 27 Oct 2026 annual meeting | — | — | — | Governance change; the 8-K states no disagreement with the company |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Todd Schneider, CEO | RSU/PSU vest (57,944 sh); shares withheld to cover taxes | 35,599 | $202.71 | $7.22M | Routine, pre-scheduled Section 16 tax withholding — not a discretionary sale (Motley Fool, TipRanks) |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Scott D. Farmer, Chairman | RSU/PSU vest (830 sh); shares withheld to cover taxes | 15,923 | $202.71 | $3.23M | Same routine pattern; the founder’s son — the F-to-A ratio implies most of the underlying award vested on an earlier filing outside this dataset |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Jim Rozakis, President & COO | RSU/PSU vest (11,250 sh, first since the 1 Aug promotion); shares withheld to cover taxes | 7,684 | $202.71 | $1.56M | Routine tax withholding |
| 10 Aug 2026 | David Brock Denton, CFO | RSU/PSU vest (5,718 sh); shares withheld to cover taxes | 3,479 | $202.71 | $0.71M | Routine tax withholding |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Scott Garula, EVP | RSU/PSU vest (10,695 sh); shares withheld to cover taxes | 2,958 | $202.71 | $0.60M | Routine tax withholding; a smaller 249-share withholding on 1 Jul 2026 followed the same pattern |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Melanie W. Barstad, Director | Option exercise (10,548 sh @ $27.10 strike), then open-market sale | 9,142 | $202.94 | $1.86M | Scheduled option monetization, six weeks before her non-re-election notice |
| 20 Apr & 22 Jul 2026 | Ronald W. Tysoe, Director | Two option-exercise-and-sell rounds, combined | 9,029 | $178.87–$199.90 | $1.71M | Same monetization pattern as Barstad, split across two dates |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Robert E. Coletti, Director | Option exercise (12,544 sh @ $26.86–$27.10 strike); shares retained | — | — | — | Exercised and held — the one director filing with no same-day disposal |
Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings for the twelve months to 25 Sep 2026 (CIK 0000723254), covering directors Coletti, Carnahan, Barstad and Tysoe and officers CEO Schneider, President & COO Rozakis, CFO Denton, EVP Garula and Chairman Farmer. Code A is an award or vest, F is shares withheld by the company to cover taxes, M is an option exercise and S is an open-market sale; the Shares/Price/Value columns report the disposal leg (F or S) where a vest or exercise was paired with one. Dollar values are shares × the reported transaction price. No insider made an open-market purchase in the filings reviewed, and director Karen Carnahan’s three Form 4s in the period reported no transactions. Institutional-ownership and short-interest figures were not part of this research pass.
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | stockanalysis.com | Sell-side target-raise cluster after the print (Truist to $230, UBS to $235, Baird to $222); shares +2.97% to $197.68, reversing most of the prior session’s drop. | Yes |
| 23 Sep 2026 | BusinessWire / Cintas 8-K | Q1 FY2027: revenue $3.01B (+10.9%), adjusted EPS $1.39 (+15.8%), both ahead of consensus — the sixth straight beat. FY2027 guidance raised for the second consecutive release. Shares fell 3.44% intraday on a guidance raise some investors read as modest. | Yes |
| 15 Sep 2026 | SEC DEF 14A | Proxy filed for the 27 Oct annual meeting: 8 director nominees, say-on-pay, auditor ratification, a management proposal to reincorporate from Washington to Delaware, and a shareholder majority-voting proposal the board opposes. | No — meeting is 2 days after the window |
| 27 Aug 2026 | SEC 8-K | Director Melanie Barstad will not stand for re-election; the filing states no disagreement with the company. | No |
| 10 Aug 2026 | SEC Form 4s via Motley Fool / TipRanks | Cluster of executive RSU-vesting and tax-withholding sales (CEO Schneider ≈$7.2M, plus Farmer, Rozakis, Denton, Garula); coverage calls it routine, non-discretionary activity. | No |
| 3 Aug 2026 | SEC 8-K | Jim Rozakis promoted to President & COO effective 1 Aug 2026; Schneider retains the CEO title. | No |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Nasdaq / Cintas | Quarterly dividend raised 15.6% to $0.52/share; paid 15 Sep, before the window opens. | No |
| 15 Jul 2026 | Cintas newsroom | Q4 FY2026 and full-year results set the FY2026 base ($11.26B revenue, $4.94 adjusted EPS) and the initial FY2027 guide later raised on 23 Sep. | No |
| 12 Jun 2026 | StockTitan (UniFirst 8-K) | UniFirst shareholders approve the Cintas merger with more than 99% support, clearing one of two closing conditions. | No |
| 11 Jun 2026 | MLex / StockTitan | FTC issues a Second Request on the UniFirst deal, extending the antitrust waiting period; both companies still targeted a H2 2026 close as of that filing. | Ongoing — no fixed date |
Ten items, newest first. The final column states whether the event, or its live follow-through, falls inside 25 Sep – 25 Oct 2026.
Ongoing: the FTC Second Request review of the UniFirst acquisition remains open with no disclosed date — management still targets closing “prior to the end of calendar 2026,” so any clearance, divestiture agreement, litigation or abandonment announcement can land on any day in the window and is the single largest event-risk overhang. 1 Oct: ISM Manufacturing PMI. 2 Oct: September payrolls — a direct read on the customer headcount Cintas’s uniform-rental revenue tracks. 14 Oct: September CPI. 15 Oct: September PPI, an input-cost read-through for the laundering/uniform cost base. ~22 Oct (uncertain): UniFirst’s possible final standalone quarterly print, if it still holds one before the deal closes.
Outside the window: the 27 Oct annual meeting (Delaware reincorporation vote) and the next dividend declaration (~27–28 Oct) both land 2–3 days after it closes; Vestis’s and Aramark’s next reports and Cintas’s own Q2 FY2027 print (expected mid-December) fall in November or later.
| Company | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY) | Source View | News Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation (CTAS) | $197.68 | $79.0B | $11.6B | 6.8× | +10.9% | Buy PT $218.25 (20) | Positive 7/2/1 |
| UniFirst Corporation (UNF) | $257.86 | $4.7B | $2.5B | 1.9× | +3.9% | Reduce PT $228.75 (5) | Positive 3/0/1 |
| Vestis Corporation (VSTS) | $13.84 | $1.8B | $2.7B | 0.7× | −1.8% | Reduce PT $12.66 (8) | Neutral 0/0/0 |
| Aramark (ARMK) | $54.32 | $14.3B | $19.8B | 0.7× | +9.3% | Moderate Buy PT $69.14 (14) | Positive 1/0/0 |
| ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) | $49.54 | $2.9B | $9.1B | 0.3× | +4.2% | Hold PT $50.88 (5) | Neutral 3/5/0 |
| Peer median | — | $3.8B | $5.9B | 0.7× | +4.0% | — | — |
Data tier: prices, market caps and TTM revenue are stockanalysis.com figures as of the 24 Sep 2026 close, the same session as CTAS’s own $197.68 close. UniFirst’s price reflects merger-arbitrage repricing against the pending $155-cash-plus-0.7720-CTAS-share deal (implied value ≈$307.61 at today’s CTAS price) rather than standalone fundamentals — see Sections 1 and 9. Aramark’s quote diverged materially between sources ($54.32 stockanalysis.com vs $59.71 MarketBeat); the internally consistent stockanalysis.com figure is used throughout. Source View is each vendor’s own consensus rating with mean target and analyst count — CTAS and the peers are not all from the same vendor; Section 8.5 has the CTAS-specific multi-source breakdown. News Sentiment counts positive/neutral/negative ticker-tagged insights on Massive news over the trailing 180 days (29 Mar – 25 Sep 2026); CTAS’s count does not yet include the 23 Sep earnings print, which this feed had not tagged as of the research date. Vestis shows no ticker-tagged coverage in this window — its most recent tagged article dates to October 2025.
| Analyst / Source | Current Target | Previous | Date | Implied Return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | $227 | — | 25 Sep 2026 | +14.8% | Hold | ► n/a† |
| Oppenheimer | — | — | 25 Sep 2026 | — | Hold | ► Maintained |
| UBS | $235 | $230 | 24 Sep 2026 | +18.9% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Goldman Sachs | $239 | $231 | 24 Sep 2026 | +20.9% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| Robert W. Baird | $222 | $214 | 24 Sep 2026 | +12.3% | Outperform | ▲ Raised |
| Truist Securities | $230 | $225 | 24 Sep 2026 | +16.3% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| RBC Capital Markets | $206 | $206 | 24 Sep 2026 | +4.2% | Sector Perform | ► Maintained |
| Barclays | $245 | — | 24 Sep 2026 | +23.9% | Buy | ► n/a† |
| William Blair | — | — | 24 Sep 2026 | — | Outperform | ► Maintained |
| Citigroup | $180 | $175 | 22 Sep 2026 | −8.9% | Sell | ▲ Raised |
Ten rows, newest first, spanning 22–25 Sep 2026 — the window bracketing the 23 Sep earnings release. † Deutsche Bank’s and Barclays’s previous targets could not be independently confirmed, so direction is left unmarked rather than guessed. Oppenheimer and William Blair are rating-only actions with no numeric target disclosed in the source listing. Implied return is against the $197.68 close. Citigroup is the only Sell rating in the set — and still raised its target into the print.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $197.68 |
| Consensus target | $218.25 |
| Median target | $224.50 |
| High target | $250.00 |
| Low target | $180.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +10.4% |
| Implied downside to low | −8.9% |
| Analysts contributing | 20 (StockAnalysis.com) · 14 (MarketBeat) · 13 (TipRanks) · 20 (MarketScreener) |
Metrics use the StockAnalysis.com set (20 analysts, as of 25 Sep 2026). The other three consensus sources cluster close by: MarketBeat mean $214.00 (14 analysts), TipRanks mean $218.73 (13, trailing 3 months), MarketScreener mean $216.31 (20) — see Section 5.
StockAnalysis.com set; the dashed line marks the $197.68 close.
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (diluted) | Gross Margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs Est. | Next-day Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 25 | $2,562M | — | +7.8% | $1.09 | 49.8% | $681Me | 26.6%e | Beat +7.9% | +2.3% |
| Q3 25 | $2,609M | +1.8% | +8.4% | $1.13 | 50.6% | $699Me | 26.8%e | Beat +7.6% | +0.8% |
| Q4 25 | $2,668M | +2.2% | +8.0% | $1.09 | 49.7% | $687Me | 25.7%e | Beat +1.9% | +0.0% |
| Q1 26 | $2,718M | +1.9% | +8.7% | $1.20 | 50.3% | $711Me | 26.2%e | Beat +0.8% | +1.0% |
| Q2 26 | $2,800M | +3.0% | +9.3% | $1.21 | 50.5% | $749Me | 26.8%e | Beat +0.8% | −1.2% |
| Q3 26 | $2,841M | +1.5% | +8.9% | $1.24 | 51.0% | $753Me | 26.5%e | In line 0.0% | −4.5% |
| Q4 26 | $2,905M | +2.2% | +8.9% | $1.26 | 51.0% | $766Me | 26.4%e | Beat +4.0% | +7.2% |
| Q1 27 | $3,014M | +3.7% | +10.9% | $1.36 | 51.5% | $806Me | 26.7%e | Beat +3.0% | +3.0% |
| Q2 FY2027 consensus | ~$3.02B | — | — | ~$1.35–$1.36 | — | — | — | — | Consensus, ~mid-Dec 2026 |
Revenue and EPS are as reported (GAAP). Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortisation; Cintas does not disclose D&A by quarter, so each fiscal year’s annual D&A is divided evenly across its four quarters — the whole row is derived (marked e). vs Est. compares adjusted diluted EPS with MarketBeat consensus (see Section 4 for why GAAP and adjusted diverge only from Q4 FY2026). Next-day Reaction is the close-to-close move on the session after the release. The grey row is the Q2 FY2027 consensus (Investing.com; report expected ~mid-December, outside the 10–30 day window). Minus signs are − (U+2212).
Revenue has grown year on year in all eight quarters shown and accelerated into the most recent two (Q4 FY2026 +8.9%, Q1 FY2027 +10.9%); operating margin has held inside a tight 22.4%–23.6% band throughout and sits at its high end now, so the acceleration is not coming at the expense of profitability.
| Metric | 31 Aug 2026 | 31 May 2026 | 28 Feb 2026 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.45 | 1.43 | 1.98 | 1.5–3.0 healthy Below range |
| Quick ratio | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.74 | ≥1.0 healthy Comfortable |
| Cash ratio | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.10 | Industry dependent Low, by design |
Current assets were $3,932M against current liabilities of $2,705M at 31 Aug 2026. The ratio’s fall from 1.98 at 28 Feb 2026 to 1.43 at 31 May 2026 is a single event, not working-capital deterioration: current debt jumped from $229M to $999M in that quarter as Cintas’s $1,000M, 3.700% notes (issued 14 Mar 2017) crossed into the within-12-months window ahead of their 1 Apr 2027 maturity. Excluding that one reclassified obligation, the current ratio at 31 May 2026 would have been 2.28 — higher, not lower, than the 28 Feb 2026 reading. Ratios are derived from SEC-filed and press-release balance sheets (quick ratio excludes inventories).
| Peer comparison (most recent reported) | Current Ratio | Net Cash Position | Liquidity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation (CTAS) | 1.45 | −$2.19B | Adequate |
| UniFirst Corporation (UNF) | 3.11 | +$0.17B | Strong |
| Vestis Corporation (VSTS) | 2.17 | −$1.21B | Strong |
| Aramark (ARMK) | 1.29 | −$5.63B | Adequate |
| ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) | 1.42 | −$1.69B | Adequate |
| Peer median | 1.79 | −$1.45B | — |
Liquidity Status: current ratio 1.5 or above is Strong, 1.0–1.5 Adequate, below 1.0 Tight. Net cash is total cash less total debt; a negative figure is net debt. CTAS’s own figure of −$2.19B would be a net-cash position of roughly $0.24B excluding the reclassified notes. UniFirst’s balance sheet reflects a standalone company still trading merger arbitrage, not deal-adjusted pro forma figures. Vendor data, most recent reported quarter.
| Metric | 31 Aug 2026 | 31 May 2026 | 28 Feb 2026 | Target / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.55 | Lower is safer Conservative |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.26 | <0.5 conservative Well below 0.5 |
| Interest coverage | 26.7×e (TTM) | n/a | n/a | >2.5 healthy Comfortably covered |
| Debt service coverage | n/m | n/m | n/m | >1.25 healthy · principal maturity schedule not part of this research pass |
| Debt / Adj. EBITDA, gross | 0.79× | n/a | n/a | Lower is safer; own calculation |
| Debt / Adj. EBITDA, net of cash | 0.71× | n/a | n/a | Own calculation |
Total debt of $2,429M at 31 Aug 2026 is almost entirely the $1,000M of 3.700% notes maturing 1 Apr 2027 plus commercial paper and other borrowings; Cintas discloses no separate secured/unsecured or maturity-ladder detail beyond the 10-K. Interest coverage uses FY2026’s full-year net interest expense ($101.2M, cited in the FY2027 guidance commentary alongside a ~$103.0M FY2027 estimate) as a stable proxy for TTM, since Cintas does not disclose interest expense by quarter. Debt service coverage is n/m because the principal-maturity schedule is not part of this research pass. Both Debt/EBITDA readings are this report’s own calculation (debt or net debt ÷ the derived TTM Adj. EBITDA in 9.A) — there is no vendor Debt/EBITDA figure for CTAS in the sources used.
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 | TTM | Q1 FY2026 | FY2026 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 51.5% | 51.0% | 50.3% | 50.7% | 50.0% | ▲ |
| Operating margin | 23.6% | 23.4% | 22.7% | 23.1% | 22.8% | ▲ |
| Net margin | 18.3% | 17.8% | 18.1% | 17.8% | 17.5% | ▲ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 26.7%e | 26.6%e | 26.2%e | 26.5%e | 26.3%e | ▲ |
| Return on assets | 20.7%e | 19.3%e | n/a | 19.0%e | n/a | ▲ |
| Return on equity | 42.4%e | 39.6%e | n/a | 38.9%e | n/a | ▲ |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM), period-end | n/a | 39.6%e | n/a | n/a | n/a | → |
Margins are on Cintas’s own reported figures. Adj. EBITDA margin is derived (operating income plus D&A, see 9.A) throughout, including the TTM and annual columns. Return on assets and return on equity use period-end balance sheets; Q1 FY2026 and FY2025 columns are n/a because those balance sheets were not part of this research pass (only the three dates spanning 28 Feb–31 Aug 2026 were retrieved). DuPont here is TTM only: 17.82% net margin × 1.085× asset turnover × 2.05× equity multiplier = 39.6%.
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op Margin | Net Margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Profitability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation (CTAS) | 51.5% | 23.6% | 18.3% | n/a | 39.6% | 1 of 5 |
| UniFirst Corporation (UNF) | 36.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | n/a | 5.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Vestis Corporation (VSTS) | 26.3% | 4.2% | -0.2% | n/a | -0.6% | 5 of 5 |
| Aramark (ARMK) | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.9% | n/a | 11.7% | 3 of 5 |
| ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) | 12.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | n/a | 9.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Peer median | 19.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | n/a | 7.2% | — |
Vendor and reported figures on each company’s own revenue definition, so margins are not fully like-for-like; ARMK’s gross margin uses its latest-quarter figure (8.67%) rather than an inconsistent TTM vendor read — see Section 8 caption. Profitability Rank is the average of ranks on gross margin, operating margin, net margin and ROE, ties broken on net margin; CTAS ranks 1 of 5. Adj. EBITDA margin is not available on a comparable peer basis, so there is no peer median for that column.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 1.09×e | 1.07×e | TTM revenue ÷ period-end assets (31 Aug 2026; FY2026 at 31 May 2026) |
| EPS growth (GAAP, Q1 YoY) | +13.3% | n/m | $1.36 against $1.20; the sixth straight quarter of both revenue and adjusted-EPS beats |
| Revenue per employee | $240Ke | n/a | TTM revenue ÷ 48,100 employees (31 May 2026 headcount); 1.5–3.4× every peer’s figure below |
| Dividend per share (quarterly) | $0.52 | $0.45 | +15.6% raise declared 28 Jul 2026; about 37% of TTM adjusted EPS |
| Dividend yield | 1.05% | n/a | Annualised $2.08 ÷ $197.68; below every peer except UniFirst and Vestis (Section 8.5 has the payout detail) |
Efficiency and per-share growth measures, TTM or latest quarter against the prior comparable period.
| Company | Asset Turnover | Rev / Employee | Employees | EPS Growth | Div Yield | Growth Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation (CTAS) | 1.09×e | $240Ke | 48,100 | +13.3% | 1.05% | 1 of 5 |
| UniFirst Corporation (UNF) | 0.72×e | $156K | 16,000 | +3.9% | 0.57% | 4 of 5 |
| Vestis Corporation (VSTS) | n/m | $149K | 18,150 | −1.8% | 0.00% | 5 of 5 |
| Aramark (ARMK) | 2.20×e | $71K | 278,390 | +9.3% | 0.88% | 2 of 5 |
| ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) | 2.19×e | $81K | 113,000 | +4.2% | 2.34% | 3 of 5 |
| Peer median | — | — | — | +4.0% | 0.72% | — |
Asset turnover for UNF, ARMK and ABM is derived from each vendor’s own ROA and net margin (asset turnover = ROA ÷ net margin); VSTS’s near-zero net margin makes that derivation unstable, so it is shown as n/m rather than a misleading figure. CTAS’s revenue per employee is 1.5–3.4× every peer’s, though CTAS’s employee count (48,100) is itself a full-time-equivalent headcount that may not be defined identically across vendors. Growth Rank is by latest-quarter revenue growth; CTAS ranks 1 of 5, the fastest of the group.
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 | Q1 FY2026 | YoY | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uniform Rental & Facility Services revenue | $2,290M | n/a | +9.7% | Segment gross margin 50.8% vs. 49.7% a year ago |
| Other revenue (incl. First Aid & Safety) | $719.2M | n/a | +14.7% | First Aid & Safety called out as a standout; growth spread across pricing, new business, retention and cross-sell |
| Organic revenue growth | 8.9% | 7.8% | +1.1pp | Strips out FX and the modest pace of bolt-on M&A |
| Free cash flow (Q1 FY2027) | $464.8M | n/a | +48.7% | 24/7 Wall St: “free cash flow nearly doubled” |
Q1 FY2027 release (23 Sep 2026). Year-ago segment-level figures were not disclosed in the comparable format in the sources used, so those cells are n/a; the YoY columns are as stated in the release itself.
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM (GAAP) | 39.0× | $197.68 ÷ TTM GAAP EPS of $5.07 |
| P/E TTM (adjusted) | 38.5× | $197.68 ÷ TTM adjusted EPS of $5.13; peer median TTM P/E 38.0× (GAAP basis) |
| Forward P/E | 34.7× | Vendor figure on FY2027 consensus EPS of $5.69; peer median forward P/E 19.8× |
| Price / book | 15.17× | Vendor figure; Cintas carries little intangible-heavy goodwill relative to its earnings power, so book value understates the franchise |
| Price / sales TTM | 6.83× | Peer median 0.70× — CTAS trades at roughly 9.8× the peer P/S |
| EV / EBITDA | 26.23× | Vendor figure; enterprise value includes the UniFirst-deal bridge-financing commitment |
| PEG (P/E ÷ latest-quarter YoY growth) | 3.58e | 39.0× ÷ 10.9% — the lowest (cheapest growth-adjusted) of the five names despite the highest raw P/E; see 9.5 table below |
Derived multiples (marked e) use the $197.68 close. GAAP and adjusted P/E diverge because adjusted TTM EPS ($5.13) excludes the UniFirst transaction costs booked in the two most recent quarters.
| Price / sales | Price | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | P/S TTM | vs Peer Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation (CTAS) | $197.68 | $79.0Be | $11.6B | 6.83× | +876% |
| UniFirst Corporation (UNF) | $257.86 | $4.7B | $2.5B | 1.87× | +167% |
| Vestis Corporation (VSTS) | $13.84 | $1.8B | $2.7B | 0.68× | −3% |
| Aramark (ARMK) | $54.32 | $14.3B | $19.8B | 0.72× | +3% |
| ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) | $49.54 | $2.9B | $9.1B | 0.32× | −54% |
| Peer median | — | $3.8B | $5.9B | 0.70× | — |
CTAS’s market cap uses actual shares outstanding at 31 Aug 2026 (399.517M); peer market caps and P/S are vendor figures on the same 24 Sep 2026 pricing session (see Section 8 caption for UniFirst’s merger-arbitrage-repriced quote).
| Earnings & growth-adjusted | TTM EPS | P/E TTM | Rev Growth | PEG | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation (CTAS) | $5.07 | 39.0× | +10.9% | 3.58e | Rich on P/E, cheapest on PEG |
| UniFirst Corporation (UNF) | $6.34e | 40.7× | +3.9% | 10.43 | Deal price, not organic growth |
| Vestis Corporation (VSTS) | n/m | n/m | −1.8% | n/m | PEG n/m — margin-loss quarter |
| Aramark (ARMK) | $1.43e | 38.0× | +9.3% | 4.08 | In line |
| ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) | $2.75e | 18.0× | +4.2% | 4.28 | In line |
| Peer median | — | 38.0× | +4.0% | — | — |
PEG is P/E TTM ÷ latest-quarter YoY revenue growth for every name, a consistent if imperfect proxy in the absence of a common forward-growth estimate; VSTS’s negative growth makes its PEG not meaningful. UniFirst’s rich PEG reflects the market pricing the pending Cintas deal rather than UniFirst’s own organic trajectory.
Fundamentals set how much room the price has rather than which way it goes: revenue and margins are both accelerating (Q1 FY2027 the best quarter of the eight shown on both counts), the balance sheet carries only 0.71× net debt to EBITDA once the reclassified notes are put in context, and the 9.8× premium to the peer P/S median narrows to the cheapest PEG of the five names once that growth is priced in. That supports the view that the next 10–30 days are not a valuation story — nothing here updates before mid-December — so, as in Section 2, the swing factor is the open FTC review, not the ledger.
The Trader workbook carries an explicit warning for this ticker: “CTAS not found in Individual regimes or Tracked regimes.” That gap is specific to CTAS’s own Persistency/Volatility regime trace (this section only) — it does not extend to the Market/Sector Driver tabs (§11) or the market-regime tabs (§12), both of which are ticker-independent and fully populated for CTAS below. This chart substitutes a directly computed measure — the annualised standard deviation of CTAS’s own daily log returns over the trailing 21 trading days, carried across the full price history — for the unavailable regime trace. It is realised, price-based volatility, not the workbook’s Volatility regime score, and the two are not comparable; no Persistency or Volatility reading is shown or estimated for CTAS anywhere in this report. Price data as of 24 Sep 2026 close — 1 trading day behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std Dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realised volatility (21d) | 20.2% | 22.8% | 9.1pp | 10.7% | 49.5% | 53rd | Roughly at its own two-year median despite sitting below the simple trailing average — the distribution is right-skewed by a handful of sharp spikes. The largest, 49.5% around 8 Jan 2025, reflects the 21-day window still containing the 10.6% single-session drop after the 19 Dec 2024 print. Unremarkable: neither compressed nor elevated. |
Current, mean, std dev, min, max and percentile are computed across all 480 rolling 21-session readings, 24 Oct 2024 – 24 Sep 2026. This is the same figure as the “Ann. volatility” header-strip cell restated with its own distribution, not a new data source. Price data as of 24 Sep 2026 close — 1 trading day behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| State | % of period | Character |
|---|---|---|
| High | 36.0% | Realised volatility above the window’s own mean — sharper daily swings, wider likely trading ranges. |
| Low Current | 64.0% | Realised volatility below the window’s own mean — calmer daily swings, tighter likely trading ranges. CTAS’s current state. |
Share of the 480 rolling observations spent above versus below the window’s own mean, 24 Oct 2024 – 24 Sep 2026. A two-state read, not a four-quadrant one — CTAS has no Persistency axis to pair with Volatility. Price data as of 24 Sep 2026 close — 1 trading day behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Low → High | 9 | Volatility picking up after a calmer stretch. |
| High → Low | 9 | Volatility cooling off after a sharper stretch. |
18 state changes across 479 day-to-day steps. Price data as of 24 Sep 2026 close — 1 trading day behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
A 21-session rolling figure moves slowly relative to the daily price change itself and can hold one state for weeks: CTAS’s current Low state has held for 21 consecutive sessions. These statistics describe 24 Oct 2024 – 24 Sep 2026 (480 observations) and are not predictions. CTAS itself carries no Persistency/Volatility regime trace — see 10.1.
| Factor | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d (current) | Rolling Min | Rolling Max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.039 | 0.1 | 0.015 | −0.337 | 0.344 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | 0.022 | 0.0 | 0.065 | −0.261 | 0.300 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.035 | 0.1 | −0.137 | −0.190 | 0.328 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.032 | 0.1 | −0.142 | −0.255 | 0.165 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.074 | 0.6 | −0.177 | −0.290 | 0.335 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.307 | 9.4 | 0.134 | −0.668 | 0.267 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | 0.038 | 0.1 | −0.379 | −0.403 | 0.490 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.001 | 0.0 | −0.278 | −0.381 | 0.273 | Variable | Neutral |
Market Drivers 1–5 then Sector Drivers 1–3. Method: daily log returns of CTAS against first-differenced Market Driver levels and the return-scaled Sector Driver values; 500 overlapping daily observations, 26 Sep 2024 – 24 Sep 2026; rolling window 60 sessions. Each driver is a statistical component whose sign is arbitrary, so Direction states the sign of CTAS’s relationship to the driver as oriented in the workbook, not a bullish or bearish reading. Stability reads Stable when the rolling correlation’s range is under 0.4 and Variable otherwise, so a driver can vary in size yet keep its sign. Drivers as of 24 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| Factor | Raw Beta | Standardised Beta | Share of Explained Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | 0.00006 | 0.064 | 2.5% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.144 | −0.312 | 97.5% |
Regression of CTAS’s daily log return on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 together (500 observations, 26 Sep 2024 – 24 Sep 2026; systematic 9.8% = R²). Share of explained variance splits R² by standardised beta × correlation — Sector Driver 1 carries almost all of it (97.5%) despite Sector Driver 1’s own R² of only 9.4%, because the two primary drivers together explain just 9.8% of daily variance in the first place. Over the 22 sessions to 24 Sep 2026, the last date in the driver data, CTAS’s log return was −4.80% (the −4.7% 30-day figure in the header strip is a simple price return over a different window); the two drivers account for −0.14 points (Sector Driver 1) and −0.74 points (Market Driver 1) of it — a combined −0.88 points against the −4.80% total move, so almost all of the 22-session decline is unexplained by either driver, consistent with the 90.2% idiosyncratic share above. Drivers as of 24 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
CTAS behaves as an idiosyncratic name, not as a beta vehicle and not as a meaningful sector proxy: even Sector Driver 1, the one factor with a non-trivial correlation (−0.307, R² 9.4%), explains under a tenth of daily variance, and Market Driver 1 explains next to none. For the next 10–30 days that means company-specific developments — the FTC ruling on UniFirst above all — decide the month far more than index or sector moves; it also means there is no market-wide hedge or tailwind CTAS can lean on if broad sentiment turns.
Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 against CTAS’s daily returns, 60-session window, 148 points (every third daily reading), 19 Dec 2024 – 24 Sep 2026. Sector Driver 1’s rolling correlation has flipped from strongly negative to 0.134 over the last 60 sessions — a reversal from the −0.257 full-period average, consistent with the sign flip noted in the executive summary — and has ranged from −0.668 (26 Jun 2025) to 0.267 (14 Aug 2026) over the window. Market Driver 1 shows no comparable trend: now 0.015 against a 0.021 average, it has swung between −0.337 (16 Oct 2025) and 0.344 (18 Mar 2025) without a stable sign. Drivers as of 24 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
Every group is named, never its proxy ticker; all 14 market series map to a group label and the unmapped list is empty. Conditional statistics are CTAS’s own daily returns grouped by each market group’s regime, describe the stated window and are not forecasts. Regime membership before the latest reading comes from the workbook’s sign-coded quadrant history, so magnitudes are exact only for the last row.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet Range | 110 | 22.0% | +3.1% | +7.2% | 25.3% | 0.28 | 48.2% | +3.77% | −11.17% |
| Volatile Chop | 166 | 33.3% | +1.1% | +1.7% | 25.5% | 0.07 | 54.8% | +7.05% | −7.35% |
| Quiet Drift Current | 122 | 24.4% | −6.0% | −12.0% | 24.0% | −0.50 | 44.3% | +6.97% | −4.60% |
| Volatile Trend | 101 | 20.2% | −5.4% | −13.0% | 22.1% | −0.59 | 51.5% | +3.62% | −4.08% |
CTAS’s daily returns grouped by the US market group’s regime, 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Current regime run: 14 consecutive days. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026 — 2 trading days behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatile Trend | 101 | 20.2% | +11.7% | +31.7% | 21.9% | 1.45 | 54.5% | +4.02% | −3.51% |
| Quiet Range | 141 | 28.3% | −0.9% | −1.6% | 23.6% | −0.07 | 48.2% | +3.77% | −11.17% |
| Volatile Chop | 175 | 35.1% | −5.2% | −7.3% | 25.4% | −0.29 | 53.1% | +7.05% | −7.35% |
| Quiet Drift Current | 82 | 16.4% | −11.7% | −31.8% | 26.6% | −1.20 | 41.5% | +6.97% | −4.60% |
CTAS’s daily returns grouped by the SP500 group’s regime, 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Current regime run: 14 consecutive days. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026 — 2 trading days behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| Market Regime | Days | % of Period | Cumulative Return | Ann. Return | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Hit Rate | Best Day | Worst Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatile Trend | 33 | 6.6% | +3.4% | +29.1% | 25.6% | 1.14 | 57.6% | +3.62% | −3.51% |
| Volatile Chop | 228 | 45.7% | +2.8% | +3.1% | 23.8% | 0.13 | 50.4% | +7.05% | −7.35% |
| Quiet Range | 230 | 46.1% | −8.5% | −9.3% | 25.0% | −0.37 | 49.6% | +6.97% | −11.17% |
| Quiet Drift Current Thin sample | 8 | 1.6% | −4.7% | n/m | n/m | n/m | 25.0% | +0.97% | −3.50% |
CTAS’s daily returns grouped by the Global market group’s regime, 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Current regime run: 8 consecutive days. Quiet Drift holds only 8 days: the regime script drops buckets under 10 days, so the row is shown only because it is the current regime, with annualised figures withheld and no conclusion drawn. Share of period is measured on all 499 days. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026 — 2 trading days behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| Group | Current Regime | Best Regime for CTAS | Worst Regime | Cum. Return in Current | Sharpe in Current | Sharpe Spread | Days in Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Quiet Range | Volatile Trend | −6.0% | −0.50 | 0.87 | 122 (run 14) |
| SP500 | Q4 Quiet Drift | Volatile Trend | Quiet Drift | −11.7% | −1.20 | 2.65 | 82 (run 14) |
| Global market | Q4 Quiet Drift | Volatile Trend | Quiet Range | −4.7% | n/m | 1.51 | 8 (run 8) |
| Technology | Q3 Quiet Range | Quiet Range | Quiet Drift | +10.6% | 0.57 | 3.20 | 196 (run 87) |
| Financials | Q1 Volatile Trend | Volatile Trend | Quiet Range | +4.6% | 0.74 | 2.11 | 54 (run 2) |
| Energy | Q1 Volatile Trend | Volatile Chop | Quiet Range | −4.0% | −0.31 | 2.10 | 120 (run 63) |
| Utilities | Q2 Volatile Chop | Volatile Chop | Quiet Drift | +10.9% | 0.81 | 2.34 | 145 (run 8) |
| Europe | Q1 Volatile Trend | Quiet Drift | Volatile Trend | −16.9% | −1.50 | 2.29 | 127 (run 7) |
| Gold | Q2 Volatile Chop | Volatile Chop | Quiet Range | +8.0% | 0.20 | 1.48 | 407 (run 267) |
| VIX Near | Q4 Quiet Drift | Volatile Chop | Quiet Drift | −10.9% | −1.86 | 3.58 | 63 (run 17) |
| VIX Mid | Q4 Quiet Drift | Quiet Drift | Volatile Trend† | +10.4% | 0.79 | 2.67† | 136 (run 98) |
| Bonds near | Q1 Volatile Trend | Quiet Range | Volatile Trend | −18.5% | −2.58 | 4.61 | 30 (run 2) |
| Bonds mid | Q1 Volatile Trend | Quiet Drift | Volatile Chop | −20.9% | −1.61 | 3.92 | 77 (run 4) |
| Bonds long | Q3 Quiet Range | Volatile Trend† | Volatile Chop | +7.0% | 0.22 | 21.64† | 359 (run 36) |
All 14 mapped groups: US market, SP500, Global market, Technology, Financials, Energy, Utilities, Europe, Gold, VIX Near, VIX Mid, Bonds near, Bonds mid, Bonds long. Red rows: the group’s current regime is CTAS’s worst; green rows: CTAS’s best. Days in Current is the total days in that regime over the window, with the current consecutive run in brackets. † the best or worst regime, or the Sharpe spread, rests on a bucket of under 30 days (thin sample) — no conclusion drawn. The Global market row excludes its 8-day current regime from best, worst and spread. Cum. Return in Current is CTAS’s cumulative return over all days the group spent in that regime. Window 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026 — 2 trading days behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
Regime-conditional history describes 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026, not the future. Rows marked thin sample hold fewer than 30 days and their annualised figures should not be relied on; buckets under 10 days are dropped from the statistics (Global market’s current 8-day Quiet Drift bucket is shown only because it is current). Forward windows after each regime day overlap, so the 28 ten-session windows after Bonds near Volatile Trend days come from just 7 episodes. Market regime series as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 26 | Sell-side analysts raise CTAS price targets after the print: Truist to $230 (from $225), UBS to $235 (from $230), Baird to $222 (from $214); shares close +2.97% at $197.68, recovering most of the prior session’s drop (stockanalysis.com). | Positive |
| 23 Sep 26 | Cintas reports Q1 FY2027: revenue $3.01B (+10.9% YoY) and adjusted EPS $1.39 (+15.8%) both beat consensus — a sixth straight quarter — and FY2027 guidance is raised for the second release running; shares fall 3.4% intraday on the size of the raise before rebounding the next day (BusinessWire, 24/7 Wall St). | Positive |
| 15 Sep 26 | Cintas files its DEF 14A for the 27 Oct annual meeting, including a management proposal to reincorporate from Washington to Delaware and a shareholder majority-voting proposal the board recommends against (SEC EDGAR). | Neutral |
| 27 Aug 26 | Director Melanie Barstad notifies the board she will not seek re-election at the 2026 annual meeting; the filing states the decision reflects no disagreement with the company (SEC 8-K). | Neutral |
| 10 Aug 26 | A cluster of Form 4 filings shows CEO Todd Schneider and four other officers had shares withheld to cover taxes on vesting RSUs (Schneider: 35,599 shares, ~$7.2M); coverage characterises this as routine, non-discretionary activity, not a bearish signal (SEC Form 4 via The Motley Fool, TipRanks). | Neutral |
| 3 Aug 26 | Cintas promotes Jim Rozakis from EVP/COO to President & COO, effective 1 Aug; CEO Todd Schneider retains the CEO title (SEC 8-K). | Neutral |
| 28 Jul 26 | Cintas raises its quarterly dividend 15.6% to $0.52/share, extending a streak of annual increases dating to its 1983 IPO (Nasdaq press release). | Positive |
| 15 Jul 26 | Cintas reports record FY2026 results (revenue $11.26B) and issues initial FY2027 guidance of $12.10–12.25B revenue and $5.36–5.50 adjusted EPS — the base later raised on 23 Sep (Cintas newsroom). | Positive |
| 23 Jun 26 | A Tennessee resident files a proposed nationwide class action alleging unwanted telemarketing calls in violation of the Do Not Call Registry; early-stage, no ruling (Law360). | Negative |
| 12 Jun 26 | UniFirst shareholders approve the Cintas merger terms with more than 99% of votes cast, clearing the shareholder-approval condition (SEC 8-K via StockTitan). | Positive |
| 11 Jun 26 | Cintas and UniFirst receive an FTC “Second Request” on the merger, extending the antitrust waiting period with no statutory end date; both companies still target a H2 2026 close (SEC 8-K via MLex, StockTitan). | Negative |
| 11 Mar 26 | Cintas agrees to acquire UniFirst for $310.00/share ($155 cash + 0.7720 Cintas shares), a ~$5.5B enterprise value, funded in part by a $2.85B bridge loan (Cintas newsroom/BusinessWire). | Neutral |
Twelve items, newest first. Headlines are paraphrased. Sentiment is the author’s read of each item’s content for CTAS, not the price reaction — the 23 Sep results are read as positive although the shares fell 3.4% intraday before rebounding the next day. Rows marked Neutral include governance, process and legacy-deal items with no clear one-directional signal (the 11 Mar deal announcement is both the source of the report’s single largest catalyst and its single largest overhang). Ticker-level classifications from Massive news are summarised in section 08.
| Field | Cintas Corporation | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | Cintas Corporation | — |
| Exchange / IPO | Nasdaq Global Select Market (CTAS); has raised its dividend every year since its 1983 IPO | UniFirst, Vestis, Aramark and ABM Industries all list on the NYSE — CTAS is the only Nasdaq name of the five. |
| Domicile | Incorporated in Washington; headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio. A management proposal to reincorporate in Delaware is on the ballot at the 27 Oct 2026 annual meeting. | All four peers are US domestic filers using standard Form 4 insider reporting, as CTAS does today. |
| Sector / industry | Industrials · Commercial & facility services (SEC SIC 2320, “Men’s & Boys’ Furnishings, Work Clothing & Allied Garments” — a legacy classification that predates the company’s current facility-services mix) | — |
| Market cap | $79.0B | Peer median $3.78B — CTAS is roughly 21×e the peer-group median; Aramark, the largest peer, is $14.3B. |
| Employees | ~48,100 “employee-partners” at 31 May 2026 (10-K) | Aramark (278,390) and ABM (113,000) are far more labour-intensive per revenue dollar; revenue per employee is 240Ke for CTAS, 1.5–3.4×e every peer’s figure (§9.4). |
| TTM revenue | $11.56B | Peer median $5.92B. |
| Revenue model | Two segments: Uniform Rental & Facility Services ($2.29B in Q1 FY2027, +9.7% YoY — uniforms, mats, mops, restroom and hygiene supplies on contract) and Other (First Aid & Safety, Fire Protection, Uniform Direct Sale; $719.2M, +14.7% YoY). Recurring, contract-based revenue is the core of the model. | UniFirst and Vestis run comparable rental models; Aramark is weighted to food/facilities services and ABM to janitorial and facility staffing — the four peers are not a clean single-segment match for CTAS. |
| Key differentiators | Founded 1968 by Richard T. Farmer; TTM net margin 17.8% and EBITDA margin 26.6%e lead all four peers by a wide margin (§9.3); revenue per employee 240Ke is 1.5–3.4×e every peer’s figure (§9.4); net debt/EBITDA just 0.71×e. Pending UniFirst acquisition (~$5.5 billion enterprise value) would add UniFirst’s 16,000 employees, pending FTC clearance. | Chairman Scott D. Farmer is the founder’s son; no peer among the four has comparable founder-family board presence today. |
| CIK | 0000723254 | — |
| Website | www.cintas.com | — |
The evidence favours the neutral case: execution is running at its best-ever level (a sixth straight beat-and-raise, record margins) and the balance sheet comfortably funds the pending UniFirst deal, but CTAS trades as an idiosyncratic name (90% of daily variance is company-specific) at a full 39.0× trailing multiple that already absorbed the quarter — net roughly flat across the two sessions bracketing the 23 Sep print. Over 25 Sep – 25 Oct the swing factor is not another data point from Cintas itself but the undated FTC Second Request on UniFirst: a clean clearance is the bull trigger, a delay or divestiture demand that widens the 16–11% arbitrage spread further is the bear one. The regime read adds caution, not conviction: CTAS sits in its worst configuration for the SP500 and Bonds near groups even as the narrower rate-regime history argues for a bounce — a genuine split, not a tilt.