WOR · NYSE · Industrials · Building Products & Metal Fabrication

Worthington beat the quarter and the market sold the spike — the next month is a range trade into Investor Day

In short

Fiscal Q1 2027 beat on every line (sales $343.9M, +13%; adjusted EPS $0.82 vs $0.75), yet the 23 September spike to $67.54 closed at $59.70, giving back almost the whole gain. With no earnings inside the window, a 10% stockholder filing to sell and Q2 guided softer by refrigerant-transition and steel headwinds, the evidence points to a $56–$62.5 range over the next 10–30 days, with upside skew only if buyers reclaim the $62.49 closing high ahead of the 10 November Investor Day. Company-specific news, not the index, has set 87.5% of daily variance.

Research desk

2026-09-25 · Data as of 24 Sep 2026 close · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · range-bound

Close 24 Sep 2026

$60.33

30 day

▲ 6.0%

Year to date

▲ 17.0%

From 52W high

▼ 3.5%

Ann. volatility

30.0%

Regime as of

No cover · mkt 23 Sep

Market cap

$2.95B

52W range

$46.99–$62.49

TTM revenue

$1.42B

Rev growth

+13.2% Q1 YoY

P/S TTM

2.08×

P/E TTM

18.2×

Report date

25 Sep 2026

TTM EPS

$3.31 · adj $3.41

EV/EBITDA

10.6×

Data-centre tanks Q1

$13M

JV equity income Q1

$40.6M

Net cash

−$250.5M

Employees

~6,000

Next catalyst

~8 Oct · 10-Q

52-week range on closing prices; intraday range $45.01–$67.54. Net cash is negative: $55.1M cash less $305.6M debt at 31 Aug 2026. EV/EBITDA uses company-reported TTM adjusted EBITDA of $303M, which includes joint-venture equity income.

WOR · 30-day price

WOR · 1-year price

00Executive Summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	+17.0% YTD and +6.0% over 30 days to $60.33, 3.5% under the $62.49 closing high (4 Sep). The 23 Sep post-print spike reached $67.54 intraday but closed at $59.70, giving back almost the whole move. 20-day realised volatility 48%, the 92nd percentile of the past year.	Mixed
Revenue growth	Q1 FY27 (Aug) sales $343.9M, +13.2% YoY: 7% organic, 6% from LSI and Elgen. Beat the $331.3M consensus by 3.8%. TTM $1.42B, +23% on FY25 base.	Bullish
Profitability	Adjusted EBITDA $74.0M (+10%), but margin 21.5% vs 22.1%. Building Performance Solutions margin fell to 27.8% from 32.4% (refrigerant-transition normalisation ~$7M, tight steel supply). GAAP operating margin only 3.8%; joint ventures carry the P&L.	Mixed
Valuation vs peers	P/E TTM 18.2× vs peer median 19.0×; P/S 2.08× vs 2.94×; EV/adj. EBITDA 10.6×. The discount prices in JV-heavy earnings quality rather than signalling mispricing.	Bullish
Platform KPIs	Data-centre ASME cooling tanks $13M in Q1, matching all of FY26; WAVE JV record $35.1M equity income; free cash flow $54.0M vs $27.9M a year ago.	Bullish
Balance sheet	Net debt $250.5M ≈ 0.8× TTM adj. EBITDA; $500M revolver undrawn and refinanced 31 Aug 2026; current ratio 2.37 (31 May 2026).	Bullish
Regime state	No Persistency / Volatility coverage for WOR: not in the Individual or Tracked regime tabs (checked 25 Sep 2026). Backdrop: US market in Q4 Quiet Drift (Persistency +0.071, Volatility −0.423) as of 23 Sep, held 14 sessions. WOR has done poorly in that backdrop (Sharpe −0.18).	Neutral
Driver exposure	87.5% idiosyncratic. Market Driver 1 correlation −0.087; Sector Driver 1 −0.348 is the only systematic link that matters. 500 observations to 24 Sep 2026, drivers 1 trading day behind.	Neutral
Key risk (next 10–30 days)	Supply overhang after the failed breakout: a 10% stockholder filed Form 144 on 24 Sep to sell 34,622 shares ($2.07M), Goldman Sachs holds Sell at $50, and Q2 (Nov) is guided softer as refrigerant normalisation runs through Q2.	Bearish
Catalysts in window	10-Q filing ~8 Oct (est.); peer prints from A. O. Smith, Simpson and Watts in late Oct; FOMC 27–28 Oct. Investor Day on 10 Nov falls two sessions after the window closes on 6 Nov.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days)	Range-bound, $56–$62.5. Strong fundamentals, but a sold-into print, a seasonally weak Q2 and an unfavourable market backdrop cap the month. A close above $62.49 before 10 Nov turns it bullish; a close below $56 turns it bearish. Mixed

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window (25 Sep – 6 Nov 2026) only. Row tint matches the badge.

The quarter was good and the stock still could not hold its gains. With no earnings until mid-December and the Investor Day just outside the window, the next month turns on positioning rather than news: holders who sold the spike versus buyers setting up for 10 November. That favours a range, not a trend.

01Investment Thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days (25 Sep – 6 Nov 2026) for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.

Bull case

Beat-and-raise targets reset the floor. Two Buy analysts lifted targets to $75 on 24 Sep (Canaccord from $67, Seaport from $65), 24% above the close. Adjusted EPS beat by $0.07 (9%), reversing the $0.07 miss in June.

Data-centre tanks are a visible new growth leg. ASME tank sales for data-centre liquid cooling hit $13M in Q1, equal to all of FY26, and management expects sequential growth in Q2–Q4. A re-rating story needs only one follow-on datapoint.

Investor Day pre-positioning. The 10 Nov event will cover strategy and long-term growth since the 2023 steel separation. A long-range framework can draw buyers in ahead of time, and that pre-event period falls inside the window.

Cash generation funds buybacks. Q1 free cash flow $54.0M (+94%); record TTM FCF $196M. The company bought 335k shares ($18.2M) in Q1, with 4.23M shares still authorised, about 8.6% of shares outstanding.

Short base still elevated. Short interest was 2.4% of float (~1.2M shares), 29% above late-August levels even after 18% of it was covered. A close above $62.49 could force the rest to cover.

Cheap versus peers. P/E 18.2× against a 19.0× peer median and P/S 2.08× vs 2.94×, despite +13% sales growth against a peer median of +6.3%.

Neutral case

No earnings print in the window. Q2 FY27 is due mid-December. Without a scheduled result, the month is driven by flows around the $56–$62.5 zone the stock has traded in since June.

The post-print spike round-tripped. On 23 Sep the high was $67.54 and the close $59.70: the market paid up for the beat, then sold it. Price has since held near $60 without breaking either way.

Positives and negatives net out in Q2 guidance. Data-centre tanks and WAVE are growing, while refrigerant-transition normalisation (~$7M EBITDA drag in Q1) and steel lead times persist "through Q2". Consensus Q2 EPS is $0.71, below Q1's $0.82.

Idiosyncratic name, quiet tape. 87.5% of daily variance is company-specific and the US market is in Quiet Drift, so without company news, index moves offer little direction.

Valuation discount is structural. About 57% of Q1 adjusted EBITDA ($42.5M of $74.0M) is JV equity income, which the market capitalises lower than owned EBITDA. The discount will not close within a month.

Bear case

A failed breakout on the best news of the year. The best print in a year produced a +1.3% close after a +14.6% intraday high. Buyers who paid $62–$67 are underwater, which puts overhead supply between $62 and $67.

Insider supply is now scheduled. John P. McConnell (10% holder) filed Form 144 on 24 Sep to sell 34,622 shares ($2.07M), following sales of 41.7k on 26 Jun and 17.6k on 1 Jul. The sales are option exercises, but they still add supply.

Margins in the core segment are compressing. Building Performance Solutions adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 27.8% from 32.4% even as sales rose 16%. If the 10-Q (~8 Oct) shows gross margin worsening further, the "quality growth" argument weakens.

History of post-print fades. The stock fell the day after four of the last five reports (−11.6%, −2.5%, −4.6%, −6.1%). The +1.3% on 23 Sep is the exception, and it was achieved only by giving back most of the intraday gain.

The macro backdrop has been hostile. WOR's record in the current US-market regime (Quiet Drift) is an annualised −5.9% return. After SP500 Quiet Drift days it has averaged −3.9% over 20 days with a 38% hit rate.

The only named bear stays at $50. Goldman Sachs kept its Sell at $50 on 22 Sep, 17% below the close. A weak housing-starts print or peer miss in late October feeds that view.

The fundamentals improved and the stock still failed at $67. In a month with no print, how price behaves around $62.49 matters more than the next earnings estimate.

02Composite Assessment

The finding: Between now and early November, WOR is more likely to trade in a $56–$62.5 range than to trend. The 23 Sep spike to $67.54 was sold straight back, no earnings fall in the window, and 10% holder supply is on file. The neutral case beats the bull case unless the stock closes above $62.49 before the 10 Nov Investor Day.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue growth

7.5

+13.2% Q1 YoY, 7% organic; 1st of 4 vs peer median +6.3%

Profitability

6.5

Adj. EBITDA margin 21.5% ≈ peer median 21.4%; GAAP op margin 5.6% TTM, 4th of 4

Valuation

7.5

P/E 18.2× vs 19.0× median; P/S 2.08× vs 2.94×; 2nd cheapest of 4

Earnings quality

7.0

FCF conversion 116% of adj. earnings; but 57% of adj. EBITDA is JV equity income

Balance sheet

8.5

Net debt 0.8× EBITDA, $500M revolver undrawn, D/E 0.30

Competitive position

7.0

Leading N. American pressure-cylinder maker; WAVE ceilings JV; data-centre tank entry

Structural risk

5.5

JV concentration, steel input costs, housing/HVAC cycle, refrigerant-transition normalisation

Regime alignment

4.5

US market in Quiet Drift, where WOR Sharpe is −0.18; no own-regime coverage

Driver independence

8.5

87.5% idiosyncratic; Market Driver 1 correlation −0.087

Composite

7.0

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 (earnings quality) · Risk 10 (avg of balance sheet and structural) · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5 = 6.96

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. Competitive position is scored for context and carries no weight. Ranks are against A. O. Smith, Simpson Manufacturing and Watts Water.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

Fastest top line in the peer set. +13.2% Q1 sales growth vs A. O. Smith −0.7%, Simpson +6.3%, Watts +18.6%.

Cash conversion. Q1 operating cash flow $66.7M (+$25.7M); FCF $54.0M, nearly double; JV cash dividends $36M, 88% of equity income.

Balance-sheet optionality. $305.6M of debt against $303M TTM adjusted EBITDA and $500M of undrawn revolver: room for another LSI-sized ($205M) deal without stress.

New end-market exposure. $13M of data-centre ASME tank sales in one quarter, as much as the product line sold in all of FY26.

Estimate momentum. Beat revenue in four of the last five quarters (80%); two of three analysts raised targets within 48 hours of the print.

Loses

Owned-business margins. TTM operating margin 5.6% vs peer median 19.1%; gross margin 27.2% vs 45.7%. Profit depends on the WAVE and ClarkDietrich JVs.

Core segment margin compression. Building Performance Solutions adjusted EBITDA margin 27.8% vs 32.4% a year ago, on sales up 16%.

Poor post-print tape. Next-day reaction negative in four of five quarters; average −4.7%.

EPS misses. EPS beat rate 60% (3 of 5), with misses in Q2 FY26 ($0.65 vs $0.70) and Q4 FY26 ($0.97 vs $1.04).

Hostile market-regime history. In US Quiet Drift, the current backdrop, WOR has returned an annualised −5.9% over 122 days since Sep 2024.

03Risk Factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Overhead supply after the failed breakout. Volume on 23 Sep was ~1.5M shares, about 6× the 50-day average, and most of it traded between $60 and $67.5. The stock has not closed above $62.49 since 4 Sep. Any rally into that zone meets holders looking to exit at breakeven.

Scheduled insider selling. Form 144 filed 24 Sep: 34,622 shares, ~$2.07M, via option exercise by John P. McConnell (10% holder). It is small against ~230k shares of daily volume, but it is the third such filing since June.

10-Q detail on segment margins (~8 Oct, est.). The full filing will show the steel-supply cost and the refrigerant-transition drag line by line. A worse Building Performance gross margin than the release implied would hurt the quality argument.

Peer read-through in late October. A. O. Smith (water heaters), Simpson and Watts report inside the window. Weak residential or HVAC commentary hits WOR's water-heating and cooling tank lines.

Steel availability and cost. Management flagged tight steel and extended lead times costing "a few million dollars" a quarter. Any steel-price spike or tariff headline in October widens that.

Structural context

JV concentration. WAVE ($35.1M) and ClarkDietrich ($7.4M) equity income equal 57% of Q1 adjusted EBITDA. Both depend on commercial construction, and ClarkDietrich income fell $18.9M in FY26. The exposure plays out over quarters, not weeks.

Housing and HVAC cycle. Water heating and cooling tanks follow replacement and new-build cycles. Housing is "muted" per management, and the cycle will not turn inside a month.

Acquisition integration. $304M spent on LSI and Elgen in FY26 lifted goodwill to $501M. Integration and margin dilution show up over several quarters.

Data-centre conversion lag. Management cites an 18–24 month lag between data-centre announcements and tank orders. The upside is real but slow.

Consumer weakness. Trade & Specialty (propane, tools, Balloon Time) is discretionary. Balloon Time is already declining against tough comparisons.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Post-print supply / failed breakout	Market structure	Holders who bought at $62–$67 sell into rallies; caps upside below $62.49	Likely
10% holder selling (Form 144)	Governance	34.6k shares filed 24 Sep; option exercise-and-sale pattern since June	Possible
Segment margin detail in 10-Q	Financial	Building Performance margin 27.8% vs 32.4%; more detail may disappoint	Possible
Peer earnings read-through	Competitive	AOS/SSD/WTS late-Oct prints set the tone for residential and HVAC demand	Possible
Steel supply and price	Macro	Tight supply, extended lead times; "a few million dollars" a quarter	Possible
Rates and housing (FOMC 27–28 Oct)	Macro	Mortgage-rate path drives housing and repair activity	Possible
JV earnings concentration	Financial	57% of adj. EBITDA is equity income from non-controlled JVs	Structural
Refrigerant (A2L) transition normalisation	Competitive	Channel destocking after pre-buy; drag guided through Q2 FY27	Next print
Acquisition integration	Execution	LSI ($205M) and Elgen integration; goodwill $501M	Structural

The risks that can land in the next month are about who holds the stock, not about the business: overhead supply from the failed spike, a scheduled insider sale, and read-through from peers. None of them breaks the story, but together they make a clean breakout before 10 November less likely than a range.

04Earnings & Guidance Signals

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report Date	Revenue	vs Est.	EPS (dil.)	vs Est.	Stock Reaction
Q1 FY27 (Aug 26)	22 Sep 2026	$343.9M	+3.8%	$0.87 · adj $0.82	+$0.07 (adj)	+1.3%
Q4 FY26 (May 26)	23 Jun 2026	$371.5M	−3.7%	$0.97 · adj $0.97	−$0.07	−6.1%
Q3 FY26 (Feb 26)	24 Mar 2026	$378.7M	+7.3%	$0.92 · adj $0.98	+$0.03 (adj)	−4.6%
Q2 FY26 (Nov 25)	16 Dec 2025	$327.5M	+5.4%	$0.55 · adj $0.65	−$0.05 (adj)	−2.5%
Q1 FY26 (Aug 25)	23 Sep 2025	$303.7M	+4.1%	$0.70 · adj $0.74	+$0.03	−11.6%

Reports are released after the close; reaction is the next session's close-to-close change from Massive daily bars. The 23 Sep 2026 session traded as high as +14.6% intraday. The Q1 FY26 EPS comparison is GAAP against a $0.67 estimate, since sources report estimates on different bases. The Q1 FY27 release restates year-ago adjusted EPS to $0.78.

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev Beat Rate	EPS Beat Rate	Guidance
WOR	80% (4/5)	60% (3/5)	No numeric guidance; qualitative only
Peer median	n/c	n/c	—

Peer beat rates were not collected in this run (n/c); the row stays to show the gap. WOR gives no numeric guidance.

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	~15–16 Dec 2026 (est.)	Outside the window. Based on last year's 16 Dec date; not yet announced.
Q2 FY27 consensus EPS	$0.71	Below Q1's $0.82; Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter
Q2 FY27 consensus revenue	$353.1M	+7.8% YoY on $327.5M
FY27 consensus	$3.69 EPS · $1.47B	+9.5% EPS on FY26 adj. $3.37
Management qualitative	Data-centre tanks ▲ sequentially; refrigerant drag through Q2	Improvement expected in Q3–Q4
Investor Day	10 Nov 2026	Two sessions after the window; long-term targets likely

No earnings print falls inside the window; the next is due in mid-December. The stock has fallen the day after four of its last five reports, and this time it gave back a +14.6% intraday move. Estimates will not move the stock this month. The Investor Day on 10 November is the next scheduled re-rating event, and it falls just after the window.

05Analyst Outlook

Period	Source	View	Key Point
Sep 2026	Canaccord Genuity (B. McNamara)	Bullish	Buy; target $67 → $75 on 24 Sep after the Q1 beat. Data-centre and WAVE upside.
Sep 2026	Seaport Global (W. Liptak)	Bullish	Buy; target $65 → $75 on 24 Sep.
Sep 2026	Goldman Sachs (S. Maklari)	Bearish	Sell maintained at $50 on 22 Sep, the lone bear at 17% below the close.
Sep 2026	Aggregators (TipRanks / StockAnalysis / TradingKey)	Bullish	"Moderate Buy" / "Buy": 2–3 Buy, 1 Sell; average target $66.67–$69.20.
Jun 2026	Zacks / Wall Street Zen	Neutral	Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) after the Q4 miss; Wall Street Zen downgraded Buy → Hold on 27 Jun.
Jun 2026	Canaccord Genuity	Mixed	Target cut $69 → $67 after the Q4 FY26 miss; Buy kept.

Coverage is thin: three brokers with published current targets. Aggregator counts differ (3–5 analysts) depending on inclusion of stale targets; the $76 high on StockAnalysis could not be attributed to a named firm and is shown as an aggregate only.

06Insider & Board Activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal Read
24 Sep 2026	John P. McConnell, 10% holder	Form 144: proposed sale after option exercise	34,622	~$59.76	$2.07M	Bearish-tilt: sells into post-print strength
1 Jul 2026	John P. McConnell	Option exercise ($23.47) + sale	17,625	$53.04	$0.93M	Routine exercise-and-sell; holding back to 1.34M
26 Jun 2026	John P. McConnell	Option exercise ($26.88) + sale	41,704	$55.82–$56.35	$2.33M	Routine exercise-and-sell
29–30 Jun 2026	J. Hayek (CEO), C. Souza (CFO), officers	Tax withholding (code F)	~13,800	$53.76–$53.77	~$0.74M	Neutral: withholding on vested awards
25 Jun 2026	J. Hayek (CEO)	RSU / performance award grant	33,740	$0.00	—	Neutral: annual grant; CEO holds ~239k
6 Jul 2026	W. Bradley Southern, new director	Restricted stock grant	705	$0.00	—	Neutral: board onboarding
15 Apr 2026	J. Hayek (CEO)	Gift	475	$0.00	—	Neutral

Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 and Form 144 filings for CIK 108516, parsed 25 Sep 2026. No open-market purchases by officers or directors were found in 2026 filings. The 24 Sep Form 144 is a notice of intent: the sale, if executed, will show on a Form 4 within two business days. The company recognised three retiring directors on 22 Sep.

07Recent News & Catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
6 Nov 2026	—	End of the 30-session window	Boundary
27–28 Oct 2026	Federal Reserve	FOMC decision; mortgage-rate path for housing, water heating and roofing demand	Yes
Late Oct 2026 (est.)	A. O. Smith / Simpson / Watts	Peer Q3 prints: residential water heating, connectors and HVAC read-through	Yes
~8 Oct 2026 (est.)	SEC 10-Q	Q1 FY27 10-Q: segment margin detail, steel and refrigerant-transition costs, JV financials	Yes
24 Sep 2026	Canaccord / Seaport	Both Buy ratings raised targets to $75	Done
24 Sep 2026	SEC Form 144	10% holder J. P. McConnell files to sell 34,622 shares (~$2.07M)	Done
23 Sep 2026	Earnings call	Data-centre ASME tanks $13M; steel tight; refrigerant-transition drag through Q2; stock +14.6% intraday, closes +1.3%	Done
22 Sep 2026	GlobeNewswire	Q1 FY27: sales $343.9M (+13%), adj. EPS $0.82, FCF $54.0M; dividend $0.20 declared	Done
15 Sep 2026	GlobeNewswire	Investor Day set for 10 Nov; segments renamed Building Performance Solutions and Trade & Specialty Solutions	Done
31 Aug 2026	SEC 8-K	Fifth amended and restated $500M credit agreement with PNC	Done
10 Nov 2026	Company	Investor & Analyst Day, New York: strategy and long-term targets	Just after

Newest first by event date. The window runs 25 Sep – 6 Nov 2026 (30 trading sessions). Dates marked est. are inferred from filing deadlines or prior-year timing.

Catalysts inside the window

~8 Oct: Q1 FY27 10-Q, which details segment margins and JV results. Late Oct: A. O. Smith, Simpson and Watts results, a read-through for residential water-heating and building-products demand. 27–28 Oct: FOMC, which sets the mortgage-rate path. Pre-event positioning for the 10 Nov Investor Day falls in the window, but the event itself does not. None of these is a scheduled WOR earnings event.

08Ratings & Price Targets — Peer Frame

Company	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY)	Source View	News Sentiment
WOR · Worthington Enterprises	$60.33	$2.95B	$1.42B	2.08×	+13.2%	Moderate Buy	Positive
AOS · A. O. Smith	$57.70	$7.95B	$3.80B	2.09×	−0.7%	Hold	Negative
SSD · Simpson Manufacturing	$173.61	$7.12B	$2.42B	2.94×	+6.3%	Buy	Neutral
WTS · Watts Water	$354.40	$11.87B	$2.68B	4.43×	+18.6%	Hold	Neutral
Peer median	—	$7.95B	$2.68B	2.94×	+6.3%	—	—

Prices are 24 Sep 2026 closes (Massive). Market caps use SEC-reported shares: WOR 48.93M (23 Jul), AOS 137.9M diluted, SSD 41.0M, WTS 33.5M diluted. TTM revenue: WOR through Aug 2026, peers through Jun 2026 (SEC XBRL, derived). Source views: AOS Hold, 9 analysts, avg $67.75 (18 Sep, near yearly low); SSD Buy, 5 analysts, avg $219; WTS Hold, 10 analysts, avg $404 (StockAnalysis / S&P Global). Peers are the closest listed comparables across water heating, building connectors and flow control; none matches WOR's JV-heavy structure.

8.5Analyst Price Targets — Multiple Sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / Source	Current Target	Previous	Date	Implied Return	Rating	Direction
Canaccord Genuity	$75.00	$67.00	24 Sep 2026	+24.3%	Buy	▲ Raised
Seaport Global	$75.00	$65.00	24 Sep 2026	+24.3%	Buy	▲ Raised
Goldman Sachs	$50.00	$50.00	22 Sep 2026	−17.1%	Sell	► Maintained
Canaccord Genuity	$67.00	$69.00	25 Jun 2026	+11.1%	Buy	▼ Lowered
Seaport Global	$65.00	$74.00	27 Mar 2026	+7.7%	Buy	▼ Lowered
Canaccord Genuity	$69.00	—	26 Mar 2026	+14.4%	Buy	► Maintained
Canaccord Genuity	$69.00	$73.00	18 Dec 2025	+14.4%	Buy	▼ Lowered
Canaccord Genuity	$73.00	$81.00	25 Sep 2025	+21.0%	Buy	▼ Lowered

Newest first. Implied return is measured against the 24 Sep 2026 close of $60.33, not the price at the time of the call. Sources: Benzinga, TipRanks, StockAnalysis, MarketBeat. Direction is ▲ raised, ► maintained, ▼ lowered.

Metric	Value
Last close (24 Sep 2026)	$60.33
Consensus target (3 current)	$66.67
Median target	$75.00
High target	$75.00 ($76 aggregate)
Low target	$50.00
Implied upside to consensus	+10.5%
Implied downside to low	−17.1%
Analysts contributing	3 named (aggregators 4–5)

Target range vs last close ($60.33)

$50.00

$66.67

$75.00

Consensus is the mean of the three named current targets (TipRanks, 24 Sep). A 5-analyst aggregate (StockAnalysis) shows mean $67.20, median $70, high $76. The median sits at the high because two of three current targets are $75. Bar values are listed in the right-hand column rather than at the bar ends.

09Fundamental Financial Analysis — Company Trends & Peer Comparison

of Q1 adjusted EBITDA came from joint ventures WOR does not control

WAVE $35.1M + ClarkDietrich $7.4M = $42.5M of $74.0M adjusted EBITDA, Q1 FY27 (quarter to 31 Aug 2026). This drives both the low owned-business margins and the valuation discount.

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (diluted)	Gross Margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs Est.	Next-day Reaction
Q4 FY25 (May 25)	$317.9M	+4.4%	−0.3%	$0.08	29.3%	$85.1M	26.8%	n/c	+2.0%
Q1 FY26 (Aug 25)	$303.7M	−4.5%	+18.0%	$0.70	27.1%	$67.1M^e	22.1%	Beat	−11.6%
Q2 FY26 (Nov 25)	$327.5M	+7.8%	+19.5%	$0.55	25.8%	$60.5M	18.5%	Rev beat · EPS miss	−2.5%
Q3 FY26 (Feb 26)	$378.7M	+15.6%	+24.4%	$0.92	28.9%	$84.7M^e	22.4%	Beat	−4.6%
Q4 FY26 (May 26)	$371.5M	−1.9%	+16.9%	$0.97	27.4%	$83.5M	22.5%	Miss	−6.1%
Q1 FY27 (Aug 26)	$343.9M	−7.4%	+13.2%	$0.87	26.4%	$74.0M	21.5%	Beat	+1.3%
Q2 FY27 consensus	$353.1M	+2.7%	+7.8%	$0.71 (adj)	—	—	—	Consensus	—

EPS is GAAP diluted. Q4 values are derived as fiscal year less nine months. Q4 FY25 EPS of $0.08 reflects impairment and restructuring charges (adjusted $1.06). ^e Q1 FY26 adjusted EBITDA is back-solved from the reported +10% growth; Q3 FY26 is FY26 $295.8M less the other three quarters. The fiscal year ends 31 May. Q2 FY27 is analyst consensus (TradingKey), not company guidance.

Revenue $M · own band

Adj. EBITDA margin % · own band

TTM revenue has grown from $1.15B (FY25) to $1.42B, +23%, on acquisitions plus 7–9% organic growth, while the adjusted EBITDA margin has stepped down from 26.8% to the 21–22% range as lower-margin acquired sales and refrigerant-transition normalisation dilute the mix.

9.1 — Liquidity ratios

Metric	31 May 2026	31 May 2025	31 May 2024	Target / Status
Current ratio	2.37	3.48	3.78	1.5–3.0 · healthy
Quick ratio	1.43	2.62	2.85	≥1.0 · healthy
Cash ratio	0.13	1.27	1.37	Fell after $304M of acquisitions; cash $55.1M at 31 Aug 2026

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current Ratio	Net Cash Position	Liquidity Status
WOR (31 Aug 2026 cash/debt; 31 May ratio)	2.37	−$250.5M	Healthy; $500M revolver undrawn
AOS (30 Jun 2026)	1.59	−$456.2M	Adequate
SSD (30 Jun 2026)	3.29	+$143.0M	Strong
WTS (28 Jun 2026)	2.66	+$239.9M	Strong
Peer median	2.66	+$143.0M	—

9.2 — Leverage & solvency

Metric	31 May 2026	31 May 2025	31 May 2024	Target / Status
Debt-to-equity	0.30	0.32	0.34	Lower is safer · conservative
Debt-to-assets	0.17	0.18	0.18	<0.5 · conservative
Interest coverage	16.9×	11.2×	5.3×	>2.5 · (EBIT + JV income) ÷ cash interest paid
Debt service coverage	18.1×	17.5×	16.4×	>1.25 · operating cash flow ÷ cash interest; no current maturities

Fiscal year ends shown. Coverage ratios use FY totals and are derived. FY24 includes steel-separation costs that depressed operating income.

9.3 — Profitability ratios

Metric	Q1 FY27	TTM	Q1 FY26	FY2026	FY2025	Trend
Gross margin	26.4%	27.2%	27.1%	27.4%	27.7%	▼
Operating margin	3.8%	5.6%	3.0%	5.5%	−0.9%	▲
Net margin	12.4%	11.5%	11.6%	11.3%	8.3%	▲
Adj. EBITDA margin	21.5%	21.3%	22.1%	21.4%	23.0%	▼
Return on assets	9.2%*	8.9%	8.1%*	8.4%	5.7%	▲
Return on equity	16.6%*	15.9%	14.7%*	15.2%	10.2%	▲
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	12.4% × 0.74 × 1.80	11.5% × 0.77 × 1.80	11.6% × 0.70 × 1.81	11.3% × 0.75 × 1.80	8.3% × 0.68 × 1.81	→

* Quarterly returns are annualised (×4). The TTM period runs Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 and is derived as FY26 less Q1 FY26 plus Q1 FY27. Net margin is structurally above operating margin because JV equity income ($134.6M in FY26) sits below operating income.

Peer comparison	Gross	Op Margin	Net Margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Profitability Rank
WOR (TTM Aug 26)	27.2%	5.6%	11.5%	21.3%	15.9%	4 of 4
AOS (TTM Jun 26)	38.6%	17.5%	13.2%	19.9%^e	27.2%	1 of 4
SSD (TTM Jun 26)	45.7%	20.6%	15.7%	24.8%^e	17.9%	2 of 4
WTS (TTM Jun 26)	48.9%	19.1%	14.3%	21.4%^e	17.5%	3 of 4
Peer median	45.7%	19.1%	14.3%	21.4%	17.9%	—

^e Peer EBITDA is operating income plus D&A from SEC XBRL, not the company-adjusted figure. WOR's adjusted EBITDA includes JV equity income, which flatters the comparison.

9.4 — Efficiency & growth

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year	Comment
Asset turnover	0.77×	0.68× (FY25)	Rising with acquired revenue
Revenue per employee	~$237k	—	~6,000 employees (FY26 10-K)
EPS growth (GAAP, TTM)	+55%	—	Flattered by FY25 Q4 impairment; adjusted FY26 +9%
Adj. EPS growth (FY27 consensus)	+9.5%	+9.1% (FY26)	$3.69 vs $3.37
Dividend yield	1.33%	1.43%	$0.80 annualised; raised 5% in Jun 2026
Free cash flow (TTM)	$196M	$159M	Record; 116% conversion of adj. earnings

Company	Asset Turnover	Rev / Employee	Employees	EPS Growth	Div Yield	Growth Rank
WOR	0.77×	~$237k	~6,000	+55%	1.33%	1 of 4
AOS	1.04×	n/c	n/c	0.0%	2.46%	4 of 4
SSD	0.77×	n/c	n/c	+16.6%	0.67%	3 of 4
WTS	0.91×	n/c	n/c	+23.1%	0.62%	2 of 4
Peer median	0.91×	—	—	+16.6%	0.67%	—

EPS growth is TTM GAAP diluted EPS against the prior TTM. WOR's +55% is flattered by a low base; on adjusted EPS it ranks last. Peer headcounts were not collected (n/c). Growth rank blends sales and EPS growth.

Platform metrics

Metric	Q1 FY27	Q1 FY26	YoY	Comment
Building Performance Solutions sales	$215.1M	$184.8M	+16.4%	6% organic; $19.2M acquired
Building Performance adj. EBITDA margin	27.8%	32.4%	−4.6 pts	Refrigerant-transition normalisation, mix, steel
Trade & Specialty Solutions sales	$128.8M	$118.9M	+8.3%	Propane and tools volume, pricing
Trade & Specialty adj. EBITDA margin	18.6%	13.6%	+5.0 pts	80/20 and pricing
WAVE JV equity income	$35.1M	$32.4M	+8.3%	Record; data centres healthy
ClarkDietrich JV equity income	$7.4M	$6.0M	+23.3%	Soft commercial construction
Data-centre ASME tank sales	$13M	~$3M^e	≈4×	Equals all of FY26; sequential growth guided
Free cash flow	$54.0M	$27.9M	+94%	Capex $12.8M

^e Year-ago data-centre tank sales are an author's estimate (a quarter of the FY26 total of about $13M); the company did not disclose Q1 FY26 separately.

9.5 — Market valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM (GAAP)	18.2×	$60.33 ÷ $3.31
P/E TTM (adjusted)	17.7×	$60.33 ÷ $3.41
Forward P/E (FY27 cons.)	16.3×	$60.33 ÷ $3.69
Price / book	2.87×	Equity $1.03B at 31 May 2026
Price / sales TTM	2.08×	Peer median 2.94×
EV / adj. EBITDA	10.6×	EV $3.20B ÷ TTM $303M (includes JV income)
PEG (forward growth)	1.9	18.2× ÷ 9.5% FY27 adj. EPS growth

Price / sales	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	vs Peer Median
WOR	$60.33	$2.95B	$1.42B	2.08×	−29%
AOS	$57.70	$7.95B	$3.80B	2.09×	−29%
SSD	$173.61	$7.12B	$2.42B	2.94×	0%
WTS	$354.40	$11.87B	$2.68B	4.43×	+51%
Peer median	—	$7.95B	$2.68B	2.94×	—

Earnings & growth-adjusted	TTM EPS	P/E TTM	Rev Growth	PEG	Assessment
WOR	$3.31	18.2×	+13.2%	1.9 (fwd)	Fair; discount offsets lower-quality earnings
AOS	$3.60	16.0×	−0.7%	n/m	Cheap but ex-growth
SSD	$9.15	19.0×	+6.3%	1.1	Fair
WTS	$11.45	31.0×	+18.6%	1.3	Premium
Peer median	—	19.0×	+6.3%	1.3	—

Peer PEG uses TTM GAAP EPS growth; WOR's PEG uses forward consensus growth because its TTM growth (+55%) is distorted by a low base. On TTM growth WOR's PEG would be 0.33, which is not meaningful. Colour marks only WOR's discount, the one sign with valence for this report.

Valuation does not drive the next month. WOR is 29% cheaper than peers on sales and about in line on earnings, and that discount mostly reflects earnings that depend on joint ventures. The multiple leaves room for the Investor Day to re-rate the stock, but it does not by itself create a catalyst inside the window.

10Regime Analysis — Persistency & Volatility

WOR has no Persistency or Volatility series.

The ticker is not a column in the Individual regimes daily tab (18 tickers, last row 24 Sep 2026) or the Tracked regimes daily tab (last row 24 Sep 2026). Coverage was checked on 25 Sep 2026. No regime values are shown for WOR, and none have been estimated. The price-derived statistics below are supplied as context and are not the proprietary series.

10.1 — Regime trace

WOR — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (0 daily points: ticker not covered)

Persistency on x, Volatility on y. Q1 volatile trend, Q2 volatile chop, Q3 quiet range, Q4 quiet drift. Source checked: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily and Tracked regimes daily; 0 observations for WOR. Workbook tabs as of 24 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date. WOR coverage: none.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std Dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	Not covered in the Trader workbook as of 24 Sep 2026
Volatility	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	Not covered in the Trader workbook as of 24 Sep 2026

No current quadrant can be assigned to WOR. Regime data as of 24 Sep 2026 (1 trading day behind); status CURRENT, but WOR itself is absent.

Price-derived context (not the proprietary series)	Value	1-year reference	Read
20-day realised volatility	48.0%	92nd percentile of the past year	Elevated: range is wide after the 23 Sep spike
1-year realised volatility	30.0%	—	Typical for a mid-cap industrial
Lag-1 return autocorrelation, 60 days	+0.13	+0.02 over 1 year	Mild short-term follow-through recently
5-day variance ratio, 1 year	0.91	1.00 = random walk	Slight mean reversion at weekly scale
Max drawdown, 1 year	−20.5%	—	Mar 2026 trough $46.99

Computed from Massive daily closes, 25 Sep 2025 – 24 Sep 2026. These statistics describe realised price behaviour only and do not reproduce the Persistency or Volatility methodology.

10.3 — Regime occupancy & transitions

WOR has no series of its own, so the tables below show the US market backdrop over the same window WOR is measured against in section 12 (26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026, 499 sessions). They are labelled as market data and are not WOR readings.

Quadrant	Label	% of period	Character
Q1	Volatile trend	20.2%	Directional, wide ranges
Q2	Volatile chop	33.5%	Whipsaw; WOR's best backdrop (see 12.1)
Q3	Quiet range	21.8%	Tight, mean-reverting; WOR's worst backdrop
Q4	Quiet drift	24.4%	Low-vol grind; current state, 14 sessions

Transition	Count	Note
Volatile chop → Quiet range	5	US market
Quiet range → Volatile chop	5	US market
Volatile trend → Quiet drift	5	US market
Volatile chop → Volatile trend	3	US market
Quiet drift → Volatile trend	3	US market
Volatile trend → Volatile chop	1	US market

US market regime series as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind the report date. The sequence is taken from daily sign changes of the group's Persistency and Volatility readings.

Persistency moves slowly.

The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks, which shows up as long vertical runs on a trace. That is normal behaviour for the data. For WOR there is no trace at all. The market occupancy above describes 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026 and is descriptive, not predictive.

11Driver Exposure — Market & Sector Covariation

87.5

of WOR's daily variance is company-specific

Regression of daily log returns on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 500 overlapping observations, 26 Sep 2024 – 24 Sep 2026. Drivers as of 24 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.

11.1 — Driver correlation table

Factor	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d (current)	Rolling Min	Rolling Max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	−0.087	0.8	−0.146	−0.283	0.127	Variable	Negative
Market Driver 2	−0.019	0.0	0.066	−0.228	0.353	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 3	0.097	0.9	−0.112	−0.256	0.496	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 4	−0.120	1.4	−0.046	−0.380	0.202	Variable	Negative
Market Driver 5	−0.011	0.0	−0.247	−0.263	0.311	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.348	12.1	−0.442	−0.696	−0.048	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 2	−0.025	0.1	−0.006	−0.318	0.351	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 3	−0.079	0.6	−0.140	−0.355	0.327	Variable	Negative

Pearson correlation of WOR daily log returns with first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values. The sign of each driver is a mathematical convention; the size of the correlation carries the information. Window 26 Sep 2024 – 24 Sep 2026, 500 observations, rolling window 60 days. Stability is Stable if the rolling range is under 0.4. Correlations are never coloured. Drivers as of 24 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic decomposition

Sys. 12.5%

Idiosyncratic 87.5%

Factor	Raw Beta	Standardised Beta	Share of Explained Variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	−0.00008	−0.059	~3%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.234	−0.343	~97%

Two-factor OLS, R² 12.5%. The share of explained variance is approximated from squared standardised betas and ignores their small covariance, so it is derived. Raw betas are per unit of daily driver change and are not comparable across drivers.

WOR is an idiosyncratic name with a sector tilt, not a market-beta vehicle. The primary market driver explains less than 1% of its variance. The one systematic link is Sector Driver 1, and its 60-day correlation (−0.44) is stronger than its two-year average (−0.35). Over the next 10–30 days, company-specific flows around the failed spike, the insider filing and Investor Day positioning will matter more than the index. A sharp sector rotation is the only systematic force likely to move the stock.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 (solid) and Sector Driver 1 (dashed) against WOR daily returns, sampled every fifth session from 19 Dec 2024 to 24 Sep 2026. The Market Driver 1 correlation has stayed within ±0.3 throughout and currently reads −0.146. The Sector Driver 1 correlation has always been negative, ranging from −0.05 to −0.70, and currently reads −0.442, near its two-year average. Drivers as of 24 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind.

12Performance by Market Regime

Each group is named by its market label. WOR daily log returns are grouped by that group's regime quadrant over 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026 (499 sessions). Regime buckets with fewer than 10 days are dropped, and those with fewer than 30 are marked as thin samples. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile Chop	167	33.5%	+60.5%	+104.3%	43.1%	+2.42	57.5%	+21.31%	−6.45%
Volatile Trend	101	20.2%	+5.3%	+13.7%	29.8%	+0.46	52.5%	+4.82%	−12.29%
Quiet Drift · current	122	24.4%	−2.9%	−5.9%	32.5%	−0.18	53.3%	+7.92%	−6.31%
Quiet Range	109	21.8%	−14.9%	−31.1%	33.2%	−0.94	44.0%	+9.94%	−4.86%

Current regime held 14 consecutive sessions to 23 Sep 2026. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile Chop	175	35.1%	+63.5%	+103.1%	41.2%	+2.50	56.0%	+21.31%	−6.45%
Quiet Drift · current	82	16.4%	+6.9%	+22.9%	34.0%	+0.67	54.9%	+7.92%	−4.36%
Quiet Range	141	28.3%	−8.1%	−13.9%	32.8%	−0.43	46.8%	+9.94%	−4.86%
Volatile Trend	101	20.2%	−13.1%	−29.6%	32.4%	−0.91	52.5%	+4.82%	−12.29%

Current regime held 14 consecutive sessions to 23 Sep 2026. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile Trend	33	6.6%	+6.4%	+60.6%	25.3%	+2.40	60.6%	+2.46%	−4.16%
Volatile Chop	229	45.9%	+28.1%	+31.4%	40.5%	+0.78	52.8%	+21.31%	−12.29%
Quiet Range	229	45.9%	−2.3%	−2.5%	31.6%	−0.08	50.7%	+9.94%	−5.88%

Global market has been in Quiet Drift for only 8 sessions of the WOR window, below the 10-day minimum, so the current regime has no row; cumulative WOR return over those days was +4.9%.

12.2 — Cross-group summary grid

Group	Current Regime	Best Regime for WOR	Worst Regime	Cum. Return in Current	Sharpe in Current	Sharpe Spread	Days in Current
US market	Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	−2.9%	−0.18	3.36	14
SP500	Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	+6.9%	+0.67	3.41	14
Global market	Quiet Drift	Volatile Trend	Quiet Range	+4.9%	n/a (<10d)	2.48	8
Technology	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	+19.3%	+0.76	1.10	87
Financials	Volatile Trend	Volatile Trend	Quiet Range	+9.9%	+1.68	2.12	2
Energy	Volatile Trend	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	+0.5%	+0.03	4.59	63
Utilities	Volatile Chop	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	+34.4%	+1.99	2.51	8
Europe	Volatile Trend	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	+5.3%	+0.35	2.73	7
Gold	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	+26.7%	+0.42	0.59	267
VIX Near	Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	−1.2%	−0.13	7.03	17
VIX Mid	Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	+7.8%	+0.48	6.56	98
Bonds near	Volatile Trend	Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	+3.2%	+0.80	2.04	2
Bonds mid	Volatile Trend	Quiet Drift	Quiet Range	+7.9%	+0.69	2.26	4
Bonds long	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	−10.4%	−0.25	2.19	36

Best, worst and spread use buckets with at least 30 days; thin buckets are excluded from the ranking. Cumulative return is WOR's compounded return over all days the group spent in its current regime during the window, not only the current run. "Days in current" is the consecutive run to 23 Sep 2026 on the full market series. Market regimes as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind.

12.3 — Sensitivity callouts

Most sensitive to the Energy regime (Sharpe spread 4.59). WOR has returned an annualised +144% when Energy was in Volatile Chop and −33% in Quiet Range. Energy is now in Volatile Trend (63 sessions), where WOR's Sharpe is only 0.03: a neutral backdrop.

What the current US backdrop has historically been followed by. After days when the US market was in Quiet Drift, WOR's average forward return was −0.3% over 10 sessions (51% positive, n=113) and −1.5% over 20 sessions (52%, n=108). After SP500 Quiet Drift days it was −3.9% over 20 sessions, with only 38% positive (n=68). These are overlapping windows, not independent samples, and they describe history, not a forecast.

Currently in an unfavourable configuration. The US market has been in Quiet Drift for 14 sessions, a regime in which WOR has returned an annualised −5.9% (Sharpe −0.18). Its best backdrop, Volatile Chop (Sharpe 2.42), is not current.

One outlier drives the "chop" advantage. The +21.3% best day, 26 Mar 2025 after the Q3 FY25 print, falls in Volatile Chop for most groups. Without it, the chop advantage narrows sharply. Earnings, not regime, drove WOR's biggest moves, and no earnings fall in this window.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 26 Sep 2024 – 23 Sep 2026, not the future. Rows marked thin sample hold fewer than 30 days, and their annualised figures should not be relied on. Market regime series as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind the 25 Sep 2026 report date.

13News & Market Narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
24 Sep 26	Canaccord Genuity raises WOR target to $75 from $67, keeps Buy	Positive
24 Sep 26	Seaport Global lifts target to $75 from $65, citing data-centre-driven growth and WAVE upside	Positive
24 Sep 26	10% holder J. P. McConnell files Form 144 to sell 34,622 shares (~$2.07M)	Negative
23 Sep 26	Earnings call: data-centre ASME tanks hit $13M; steel tight; refrigerant-transition drag to persist through Q2	Mixed
23 Sep 26	Shares jump as much as 14.6% intraday on Q1 beat, close up 1.3%	Mixed
22 Sep 26	Worthington reports Q1 FY27: sales +13%, adj. EPS $0.82 beats $0.75; FCF nearly doubles	Positive
22 Sep 26	Goldman Sachs keeps Sell, $50 target	Negative
22 Sep 26	Quarterly dividend $0.20 declared; three retiring directors recognised	Neutral
22 Sep 26	Short interest falls 18% from its 15 Sep peak into the print, to 2.4% of float (Ortex)	Neutral
15 Sep 26	Investor Day set for 10 Nov; segments renamed Building Performance Solutions and Trade & Specialty Solutions	Positive
31 Aug 26	New $500M credit agreement signed with PNC-led bank group	Neutral
24 Jun 26	Shares slide after Q4 FY26 misses revenue and EPS estimates	Negative

Newest first. Sources: GlobeNewswire, SEC EDGAR, Investing.com, StockStory, MarketBeat, TipRanks, Ortex. The narrative has moved from "post-spin integration" to "data-centre cooling plus JV cash machine", but the tape is still marked by post-print selling.

14Company Snapshot

Field	Worthington Enterprises, Inc.	Peer context
Legal name	Worthington Enterprises, Inc. (formerly Worthington Industries; renamed at the Dec 2023 steel separation)	—
Exchange / IPO	NYSE: WOR · founded 1955 by John H. McConnell	AOS, SSD, WTS all NYSE
Domicile	Ohio; HQ 200 W. Old Wilson Bridge Rd, Columbus, OH	AOS Wisconsin; SSD California (HQ); WTS Massachusetts
Sector / industry	Industrials · building products, pressure cylinders, water and HVAC tanks, consumer propane and tools	—
Market cap	$2.95B (24 Sep 2026)	Smallest of the four; peer median $7.95B
Employees	~6,000 across North America and Europe	Peer headcounts n/c
TTM revenue	$1.42B (to 31 Aug 2026)	Peer median $2.68B
Revenue model	Product sales in two segments: Building Performance Solutions (62%: water heating tanks, HVAC/cooling tanks, LSI metal-roof components, Elgen HVAC parts) and Trade & Specialty Solutions (38%: propane cylinders, tools, Balloon Time). Plus equity income from WAVE (ceilings, with Armstrong) and ClarkDietrich (steel framing).	Peers are fully consolidated; WOR earns ~half its adj. EBITDA through JVs
Key differentiators	Leading North American pressure-cylinder franchise; ASME tanks for data-centre liquid cooling; high-return JV dividends (88% cash conversion in Q1); 80/20 operating system	Lower owned margins than peers; higher FCF conversion
CIK	0000108516	—
Website	worthingtonenterprises.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · range-bound

The business is improving: sales +13%, free cash flow nearly doubled, data-centre tanks emerging. But the stock has already shown it will sell good news. It gave back a +14.6% post-print spike in a single session, a 10% holder has filed to sell, and no earnings fall before mid-December. The evidence favours a $56–$62.5 range through 6 November, dominated by company-specific flows (87.5% idiosyncratic) against a US-market backdrop in which WOR has historically lagged. A close above $62.49 before the 10 November Investor Day flips this to bullish; a close below $56 favours the bear case.

Volatility Farm

1 · Prices, volumes and peer closes from the Massive market-data API (daily bars, 25 Sep 2024 – 24 Sep 2026; grouped daily 24 Sep 2026). Last completed session 24 Sep 2026 close.
2 · Financial statements from Worthington's Q1 FY27 release (22 Sep 2026), FY26 10-K (30 Jul 2026) and 10-Q/8-K filings via SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts; peer statements (AOS, SSD, WTS) from SEC XBRL. Insider data from Form 4 and Form 144 filings. Analyst data from Benzinga, TipRanks, StockAnalysis, MarketBeat, TradingKey, Zacks; news from GlobeNewswire, Investing.com, StockStory, Motley Fool transcript, Ortex.
3 · Trader workbook tabs used: Market regimes daily (as of 23 Sep 2026, 2 trading days behind), the Market Driver and Sector Driver tabs (as of 24 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind). Individual regimes daily and Tracked regimes daily (as of 24 Sep 2026) were checked; WOR is not covered, so no Persistency/Volatility values are shown. Freshness status: CURRENT.
4 · Derived rather than reported: all Q4 figures (FY less 9M); TTM revenue, EPS, margins, ROA/ROE and DuPont; Q1 FY26 and Q3 FY26 adjusted EBITDA; market caps, EV, P/E, P/S, P/B, PEG; interest and debt-service coverage; net cash; peer EBITDA margins (operating income + D&A); peer TTM figures; year-ago data-centre tank sales (author's estimate); share of explained variance; all regime-conditional and driver statistics; price-derived volatility, autocorrelation and variance ratio; next-report, 10-Q and peer-earnings dates marked est.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 25 Sep 2026 (window to 6 Nov 2026). Regime and driver statistics are descriptive of their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.

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