BN · NYSE · Financials · Asset management

Brookfield’s earnings keep compounding, but the next month belongs to its sector and the ten-year yield

In short

Distributable earnings per share rose 15% in the June quarter, yet the shares are down 11.0% in 30 days and sit 2.3% above a 52-week low, a slide that moves with its sector: one sector driver explains about 40% of BN’s daily variance while the broad-market driver explains under 1%. With no earnings report before about 12 November, over the next 10–30 days the stock will trade on the alternative-manager complex and a ten-year yield near 5%. A rebound needs yields to stop rising; a close below the $36.67 low with yields above 5% would open the bear case.

Research desk

2026-09-19 · Data as of 18 Sep 2026 close · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · high variance

Horizon: 10–30 days, 19 Sep – 19 Oct 2026

This report describes the conditions BN is likely to trade in over the next 10–30 days, not the long-run value of the business. Fundamentals are context for how much room the price has; the regime and driver sections (10–12) carry the most weight. Regime data are current: the stock’s own series is as of 18 Sep 2026 and the driver and market series as of 17 Sep 2026, at most one trading day behind.

Close 18 Sep 2026

$37.51

30 day

▼ 11.0%

Year to date

▼ 18.3%

From 52W high

▼ 24.3%

Ann. volatility

28.3%

Regime as of

18 Sep

Market cap

$92.0B^e

52W range

$36.67–$49.57

TTM revenue

$80.7B

Rev growth

▲ +8.5%

P/S TTM

1.14×^e

P/E TTM

69.5×^e

Report date

19 Sep 2026

TTM EPS

$0.54

EV/EBITDA

14.3×

Fee-bearing capital

$672B

Q2 DE / share

$0.61

Net cash

−$254.0B

Employees

~250,000

Next catalyst

30 Sep · PCE

BN · 30-day price

BN · 1-year price

Split-adjusted closes (3-for-2 split effective 9 Oct 2025). Market cap, P/S and P/E are derived from the Class A share count (see source 4); Net cash is consolidated debt less cash and is not a parent-level measure.

00Executive Summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	Closed at $37.51 on 18 Sep, down 11.0% over 30 days and 18.3% year to date, 24.3% below the $49.57 intraday high and 2.3% above the $36.67 intraday low set on 16 Sep. It is 10.1% below its 50-day ($41.74) and 14.7% below its 200-day ($43.96) average, closed lower in 7 of the last 10 sessions, and its 22-day return sits in the worst 8% of the past two years.	Bearish
Revenue growth	Q2 2026 revenue $20.1B, +8.5% YoY — the fourth straight quarter of improvement from −22.3% in Q2 2025; TTM $80.7B. Growth ranks 4th of 5 against Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Brookfield Asset Management (+28.6%, +7.8%, +63.8%, +60.8%).	Bullish
Profitability	Distributable earnings (DE) before realizations were $1,427M, $0.61 per share, +15% YoY; total DE of $0.66 beat consensus by 7.0%. GAAP diluted EPS was only $0.14 (net margin 1.8%, ROE 2.3% — both last of five), so headline profitability depends on which earnings measure is read.	Mixed
Valuation vs peers	13.1×^e annualised consensus DE per share against a 17.1× peer median forward P/E (Blackstone 19.5×, KKR 14.6×, Apollo 12.9×, Brookfield Asset Management 23.0×); 1.14×^e sales against a 6.7× median; 69.5×^e trailing GAAP earnings. Consensus targets of $54.40–$57.40 sit 45–53% above the close.	Bullish
Platform KPIs	Fee-bearing capital $672B (+19% YoY), fee-related earnings +20%, record $77B raised in Q2 ($98B year to date) and $210B of deployable capital; Wealth Solutions DE +23% to $480M on $191B of insurance assets.	Bullish
Balance sheet	Corporate borrowings $14.7B (2.6×^e LTM DE, 15-year average term, no 2026 maturities). Consolidated debt is $268.9B — D/E 1.61, current ratio 1.01 (1.27 at Dec-25), interest coverage 1.25× — the rest being asset-level, non-recourse borrowing of consolidated entities.	Mixed
Regime state	Q1 Volatile Trend, held 12 consecutive periods. Persistency +0.065 (60th percentile — near random) and Volatility +0.347 (85th percentile — elevated). As of 18 Sep 2026, 0 trading days behind.	Neutral
Driver exposure	Systematic 39.8%, idiosyncratic 60.2%. Sector Driver 1 dominates (correlation −0.631, R² 39.8%, rolling 60-day −0.595); Market Driver 1 explains 0.4%. Drivers as of 17 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind.	Neutral
Key risk (next 10–30 days)	Rates. The ten-year yield is near 5% and the two-year touched a 52-week high of 4.74% on 16 Sep after the Fed’s 25bp hike, with 16 of 19 officials seeing at least one more hike this year. BN’s alternative-manager peers are down 6–14% in 30 days; the 30 Sep PCE, 2 Oct payrolls and 14 Oct CPI prints can extend the move.	Bearish
Catalysts in window	No BN earnings (next report ≈12 Nov). Dated inside 19 Sep – 19 Oct: 21–25 Sep possible target resets after the 17 Sep Investor Day; 23 Sep Apollo CEO at a bank-hosted financials conference; 29 Sep $0.07 dividend payable; 30 Sep PCE; 2 Oct payrolls; 7 Oct FOMC minutes; 14 Oct CPI; mid-October big-bank earnings.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days)	Mixed · high variance The evidence favours the neutral case: earnings are compounding, but rates and the alternative-manager complex decide the month. It turns bullish if the ten-year holds at or below 5.00% through the 30 Sep and 14 Oct prints, and bearish on a close below $36.67 with yields above 5%.

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge. ^e marks a figure derived by the author rather than reported; each is listed in source 4 of the colophon.

BN’s earnings engine is intact — DE per share +15%, fee-bearing capital +19% — but for the next 10–30 days the stock trades as a sector proxy: the ten-year yield and the alternative-manager complex, not the company’s own numbers, set the direction, and no BN report arrives before about 12 November.

01Investment Thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days (19 Sep – 19 Oct 2026) for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.

Bull case

Yields stop rising and the alternative-manager complex snaps back. BN fell 11.0% in 30 days and sits 2.3% above its $36.67 low, with its 22-day return in the worst 8% of two years; Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Brookfield Asset Management are down 6–14% over the same span. If the ten-year holds at or below 5.00% through the 30 Sep PCE and 14 Oct CPI prints, a reflex rally toward the 50-day average ($41.74, +11.3%) becomes the base case.

The earnings base keeps compounding. DE before realizations rose 15% per share to $0.61 in Q2 and LTM DE per share is $2.39 (+7%). Total DE beat consensus in six of seven recent quarters, by an average of 6.8%, and fee-bearing capital grew 19% to $672B with fee-related earnings up 20%.

The valuation gap is wide. At $37.51 BN trades on 13.1× annualised consensus DE against a 17.1× peer median forward P/E. Management bought about $580M of stock year to date at an average near $42, so today’s price is 11% below what it paid.

Capital keeps flowing in, and it is being deployed. A record $77B was raised in Q2 ($98B year to date) and $210B is deployable. The 15 Sep agreement to acquire Reliance Worldwide (US$2.8B enterprise value, all cash) shows deployment is running; a further post-Investor-Day analyst reset on 21–25 Sep could revive sentiment.

Sell-side support is intact. All 13 analysts in the MarketBeat set are at Hold or better (1 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 2 Hold); the consensus target is $57.40 (+53%) and the lowest target in that set is $51 (+36%).

History gives some cover when the broad-market groups are quiet. With the US market and S&P 500 groups both in Quiet Drift, BN’s median next-10-session return has been +1.1% (62% and 59% of windows positive, over 5 and 7 episodes); in its own Volatile Trend regime the 20-session median is +0.9% (58% positive).

Neutral case

The catalyst calendar belongs to macro and peers, not to BN. Inside the window the dated events are the Fed-sensitive prints (PCE 30 Sep, payrolls 2 Oct, CPI 14 Oct), FOMC minutes on 7 Oct and big-bank earnings. BN’s own Q3 report (≈12 Nov) and the peer reports — Blackstone ≈22 Oct, Apollo ≈3 Nov, KKR and Brookfield Asset Management ≈6 Nov — all land after 19 Oct.

Mixed regime signals cancel. BN’s own state is Q1 Volatile Trend, but Persistency is only +0.065, close to random. The US market and S&P 500 groups are in Quiet Drift (BN median next-10-session return +1.1%), while the Financials group is in Quiet Drift too — BN’s worst regime (mean −3.9% over the next 10 sessions, 3 episodes). Net: no directional edge.

The slide is orderly and a floor is close. Realised 21-day volatility is 20.7% against 28.3% over a year. A one-standard-deviation move over 20 sessions is ±5.8% at the 21-day volatility ($35.33–$39.69) and ±8.0% at the 252-day figure ($34.52–$40.50) — a description of dispersion, not a forecast.

Analysts are static while the stock is not. The nine recorded target changes since May were five raises and four cuts, none larger than $2 (J.P. Morgan’s $62 in May against $56 in the S&P Global table implies at least one larger cut that neither source itemises), while the stock fell 16% from its pre-Q2 close. Targets of $51–$62 are a valuation cushion, not a catalyst.

Dividend and buybacks are a soft bid, not a floor. The $0.07 quarterly dividend (0.75% yield) is payable on 29 Sep. Buybacks of $111M in Q2 are less than one day of trading value (about $160M at 4.3M shares a day).

Both tails are fat, so the median is flat. Across all two-year windows the 20-session return had a median of +0.7% with a 10th–90th percentile band of −8.6% to +10.3%. Nothing dated inside the window resolves that spread.

Bear case

Yields keep grinding higher. The Fed hiked 25bp on 16 Sep to 3.75–4.00% (12–0); 16 of 19 officials see at least one more hike in 2026, the two-year touched a 52-week high of 4.74% on 16 Sep, and after the decision CME FedWatch put a 49% chance on another hike at the 27–28 Oct meeting and 87% on at least one more by year-end. A hot 30 Sep PCE or 14 Oct CPI extends the move and long-duration assets de-rate.

Regime history is at its worst for BN. Six of fourteen groups place BN in its worst regime and two in its best. The Financials group has been in Quiet Drift for 26 consecutive days — BN’s weakest configuration (Sharpe −2.28, 39% hit rate). After earlier Financials Quiet Drift days BN’s next-10-session return averaged −3.9% (positive in 13% of windows) and its next-20-session return −5.6% (8%), from just 3 episodes.

Support has broken and the low is close. BN is 10.1% below its 50-day and 14.7% below its 200-day average, closed lower in 7 of the last 10 sessions, and its 16 Sep close ($37.03) was the lowest since 6 May 2025. After the two earlier 10%-plus drawdowns (March 2025, March 2026) the next 10 sessions returned −2.7% and −4.0%.

The peer group is the same trade, and it is still weak. Blackstone −13.9%, Brookfield Asset Management −12.5%, KKR −10.5% and Apollo −5.8% over 30 days, against −1.0% for the S&P 500. Headlines in March 2026 described a private-credit and redemption scare across the group; Apollo’s CEO speaks on 23 Sep and Blackstone reports about 22 Oct, so group headlines can arrive inside the window.

GAAP earnings and consolidated leverage give bears an argument. GAAP EPS of $0.14 is 21% of DE per share ($0.66), the trailing P/E is 69.5×, and consolidated debt is $268.9B (D/E 1.61, interest coverage 1.25×, current ratio 1.01) with $28.4B of long-term debt falling due within a year. Higher rates raise the cost of refinancing it.

Sell-the-news and AI-circularity headlines. After the Q2 print the shares gave back the release-day gain (+0.9%, then −2.8%) and are down 16.1% since. Analysts questioned circular AI-infrastructure financing on the Q2 call (Bloom Energy partnership $25B, NVIDIA compute-financing MOU $500B), an area where sentiment can turn quickly.

The three cases disagree on one thing — whether rates or earnings decide the next month — and inside 10–30 days there is no BN earnings event to settle it.

02Composite Assessment

The finding: the evidence favours the neutral case — over the next 10–30 days BN follows Sector Driver 1 and its alternative-manager peers (down 6–14% in 30 days), not the broad-market driver (0.4% of variance), so a rebound needs the ten-year yield to hold at or below 5% through the 30 Sep PCE and 14 Oct CPI prints, while a close under the $36.67 low with yields above 5% flips the read to bear.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue Growth

7.5

Q2 revenue +8.5% YoY, 4th of 5 vs peers; four straight quarters of improvement

Profitability

5.5

DE/share +15%, but net margin 1.8% and ROE 2.3% are last of five

Valuation

7.0

13.1× forward DE vs 17.1× peer median; 69.5× trailing GAAP

Earnings Quality

5.5

DE beat 6 of 7 quarters, but GAAP EPS $0.14 is 21% of DE $0.66

Balance Sheet

6.0

Corporate debt $14.7B (2.6× DE); consolidated D/E 1.61, coverage 1.25×

Competitive Position

8.5

$672B fee-bearing capital (+19%), record $77B raised, $210B deployable

Structural Risk

4.5

Debt/EBITDA 8.2×, $120B NCI, three-layer structure; simplification closes late Q4

Regime Alignment

4.0

Own state Q1, but Financials in its worst regime (Sharpe −2.28); 6 of 14 groups worst

Driver Independence

6.0

60% idiosyncratic, yet Sector Driver 1 explains 40%; market driver 0.4%

Composite

6.3

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 · Risk 10 · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6; higher is better on every row, so a low Structural Risk score means high structural risk. Composite 6.33 = 0.25 × Growth 7.5 + 0.20 × Valuation 7.0 + 0.18 × Profitability 5.5 + 0.12 × Execution 7.0 (mean of Earnings Quality and Competitive Position) + 0.10 × Risk 5.25 (mean of Balance Sheet and Structural Risk) + 0.10 × Regime 4.0 + 0.05 × Driver independence 6.0. Scores are the author’s judgement on the evidence shown.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

Compounding earnings. DE before realizations $0.61 per share, +15% YoY; LTM $2.39 (+7%); total DE beat consensus in 6 of 7 quarters.

Scale and fundraising momentum. $672B fee-bearing capital (+19%), record $77B raised in Q2, $98B year to date, $210B deployable.

Insurance and wealth flywheel. Wealth Solutions DE +23% to $480M; $191B of insurance assets including $45B from Just Group; target above $300B by decade-end.

Second-cheapest forward multiple in the group. 13.1× DE against a 17.1× peer median; only Apollo (12.9×) is lower.

Little exposure to the broad market. Market Driver 1 explains 0.4% of daily variance and 60% of variance is not explained by either primary driver.

Loses

Price momentum. −11.0% in 30 days, −18.3% YTD, 24.3% below the high, 7 of the last 10 sessions down, below both moving averages.

Regime configuration. 6 of 14 groups sit in BN’s worst regime; Financials Quiet Drift carries a Sharpe of −2.28 and a 39% hit rate.

GAAP profitability. Net margin 1.8% and ROE 2.3% rank last of five; GAAP EPS $0.14 against DE $0.66.

Consolidated balance sheet. D/E 1.61, interest coverage 1.25×, current ratio 1.01 (from 1.27 at Dec-25), vendor debt/EBITDA 8.2×.

Sector concentration. Sector Driver 1 correlation −0.631 (R² 39.8%), negative in every 60-day window since December 2024 (rolling range −0.83 to −0.37), so peer and rate shocks pass straight through.

03Risk Factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Higher-for-longer rates. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4.00% on 16 Sep and 16 of 19 officials project at least one more hike in 2026; the ten-year is near 5% and the two-year touched a 52-week high of 4.74% on 16 Sep. Long-duration infrastructure, real-estate and insurance assets are valued off discount rates, and BN’s alternative-manager peers fell 6–14% in a month while the S&P 500 fell 1.0%. Triggers: 30 Sep PCE, 2 Oct payrolls, 14 Oct CPI, and the odds of a 27–28 Oct hike (49% on CME FedWatch after the decision, up from 40% before it).

Alternative-manager de-rating. Blackstone −13.9%, Brookfield Asset Management −12.5%, KKR −10.5%, Apollo −5.8% in 30 days; the group has lost 12–23% year to date. Over the 22 sessions to 17 Sep the two primary drivers account for under 1 point of BN’s 13.9% log-return decline; the remainder is unexplained by those two drivers, and the peers’ declines suggest a shared factor they do not capture. Apollo’s CEO speaks on 23 Sep and Blackstone reports ≈22 Oct, just after the window.

Break of the 52-week low. The stock is 2.3% above the $36.67 intraday low of 16 Sep, 1.3% above that day’s $37.03 close (the lowest since 6 May 2025) and 10.1% below its 50-day average. A close beneath the low with yields above 5% is the bear trigger; earlier 10%-plus drawdowns were followed by further 10-session declines of 2.7% and 4.0%.

Post-Investor-Day resets and headline risk. The 17 Sep Investor Day moved the stock +0.4% and +0.9% over two sessions; its content was not retrievable for this report. Target and estimate resets typically follow within a week (21–25 Sep). Four of the six release-day gains in the last eight reports were followed by a next-day loss, so event rallies have not held.

Structural context

Consolidated leverage. Total debt $268.9B, D/E 1.61, interest coverage 1.25×, vendor debt/EBITDA 8.2×, current ratio 1.01. Most is asset-level and non-recourse; corporate borrowings are $14.7B (2.6× LTM DE) with no 2026 maturities. This is a multi-year refinancing question, not a 30-day one.

Complexity and simplification. Combining BN with Brookfield Wealth Solutions closes in late Q4 pending approvals; Oaktree (completed July) and Just Group are still being integrated. Roughly $120B of the $166.6B equity is non-controlling interest against $42.5B of common equity.

AI-infrastructure concentration. Bloom Energy ($25B), the NVIDIA compute-financing MOU ($500B) and Westinghouse financing tie growth to hyperscaler capex; analysts raised circularity on the Q2 call. Sentiment can move in a day, but the fundamentals resolve over years.

Carry and monetization timing. Realized carry was $121M in Q2 ($520M LTM) against $12.5B unrealized; management expects realizations to inflect soon, but exits depend on asset-sale markets. The next read is Q3 results ≈12 Nov, outside the window.

Insurance spread and credit risk. Just Group’s cost base is 2–3× competitors’, pension-risk-transfer spreads exclude equity mark-to-market, and management describes duration as largely matched. Normal-course risk that cannot resolve inside 30 days.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Higher-for-longer rates	Macro	Ten-year near 5%, two-year at a 52-week high of 4.74% on 16 Sep, Fed at 3.75–4.00% with more hikes projected; hits long-duration valuations and financing costs.	Yes
Alternative-manager de-rating	Sector	Peers −5.8% to −13.9% in 30 days; Sector Driver 1 explains 39.8% of BN’s daily variance, so group moves pass straight through to BN.	Yes
Break of the $36.67 low	Technical	Price 2.3% above the low, below the 50-day and 200-day averages; 22-day return in the worst 8% of two years.	Yes
Post-Investor-Day target resets	Event	21–25 Sep analyst updates after the 17 Sep event; the nine recorded target changes since May were all within ±$2.	Possible
AI-infrastructure circularity	Competitive	Bloom Energy $25B, NVIDIA $500B MOU, Westinghouse financing; analyst questions on the Q2 call; headline-driven.	Possible
Consolidated leverage and coverage	Financial	D/E 1.61, coverage 1.25×, $28.4B current portion of long-term debt; parent borrowings only $14.7B.	Unlikely
Simplification and integration execution	Governance	Approved 16 Jul; closing late Q4 pending regulators; Oaktree and Just Group integration ongoing.	Unlikely
Carry and monetization timing	Financial	$121M realized carry in Q2 vs $12.5B unrealized; depends on exit markets; next read ≈12 Nov.	Unlikely
Insurance spread and credit	Financial	Pension-risk-transfer spreads, duration matching and Just Group cost base; multi-year.	No

Inside the window the three risks that can bite are market-driven rather than company-specific — rates, the peer group and the technical floor — and they point the same way, while the balance-sheet and execution risks that dominate a long-term thesis cannot resolve in 30 days.

04Earnings & Guidance Signals

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report Date	Revenue	vs Est.	EPS (dil.)	vs Est.	Stock Reaction
Q2 2026	13 Aug 2026	$20,129M	in line	$0.14	+7.0%	+0.9% / −2.8%
Q1 2026	14 May 2026	$19,919M	n/a	$0.03	+4.8%^†	+5.4% / −4.2%
Q4 2025	12 Feb 2026	$21,184M	in line	$0.30	+9.8%	+2.3% / +0.3%
Q3 2025	13 Nov 2025	$19,460M	+0.6%	$0.08	+3.3%	−6.6% / +0.6%
Q2 2025	7 Aug 2025	$18,550M	in line	$0.10	−1.0%	−3.8% / −0.3%
Q1 2025	8 May 2025	$18,463M	+0.7%	$0.01	+8.8%	+3.1% / −1.6%
Q4 2024	13 Feb 2025	$20,460M	n/a	$0.16	+14.7%	+3.1% / +0.9%
Q3 2024	14 Nov 2024	$20,807M	n/a	$0.01	n/a	+0.3% / −1.7%

EPS (dil.) is GAAP diluted EPS. EPS vs Est. compares distributable earnings per share with consensus, because analysts forecast DE rather than GAAP EPS: Q2 2026 $0.66 against $0.617, Q4 2025 $0.67 against $0.61, and so on (MarketBeat). † Q1 2026 is from Investing.com ($0.66 against $0.63), the one quarter MarketBeat lacks; Q3 2024 has no consensus on file. Revenue is the vendor-standardised figure (IFRS revenue plus equity-accounted income); Revenue vs Est. is measured on the consensus vendor’s own basis of about $1.6B a quarter and is not comparable with reported revenue. Stock Reaction is the release-day close-to-close move followed by the next-day move. Minus signs are − (U+2212).

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev Beat Rate	EPS Beat Rate	Guidance
BN	2 of 5 · 40%	6 of 7 · 86%	None issued
Peer median	55%	80%	—

BN: EPS on the DE basis, 6 of 7 quarters (Q2 2025 the miss); revenue strictly beat in 2 of 5 quarters with data and met or beat in all 5, at $0.01B rounding. Peers, MarketBeat last 5–8 quarters — EPS: Blackstone 7 of 8, KKR 6 of 7, Apollo 3 of 5, Brookfield Asset Management 6 of 8; revenue: 4 of 8, 7 of 7, 3 of 5 and 1 of 7.

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	≈12 Nov 2026	Outside the 10–30 day window — 24 days after it closes on 19 Oct. Estimated by MarketBeat and Investing.com; not yet confirmed by BN.
Guided revenue	None	BN does not issue revenue guidance; the Q2 call gave no Q3 earnings guidance.
Consensus DE / share (Q3 2026)	$0.716	+8.5% on Q2’s $0.66 and +13.7% on Q3 2025’s $0.63.
Consensus revenue (Q3 2026)	$1.91B	Vendor’s own basis (about $1.6B a quarter); not comparable with the $20B reported.
Management outlook	Qualitative	On track for another record fundraising year; $10–12B of annual annuity sales targeted; insurance assets above $300B by decade-end; carry inflection point approaching.
Dividend	$0.07 / qtr	Payable 29 Sep, inside the window; raised from $0.06.

No BN report falls inside the window: the next one, about 12 November, is 24 days after it closes, and the nearest peer print (Blackstone, about 22 October) is three days beyond it. In the eight releases since November 2024 the release-day move averaged +0.6% and the next-day move −1.1%, and four of six release-day gains were followed by a next-day loss — so the consensus bar of $0.716 is a November question, not an October one.

05Analyst Outlook

Period	Source	View	Key Point
Sep 2026	MarketBeat consensus (13 analysts)	Moderate Buy	1 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 2 Hold. Consensus target $57.40 (range $51–$62), +53% against the $37.51 close.
Sep 2026	S&P Global via stockanalysis.com (11 analysts)	Buy	5 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Mean target $54.40, median $56.50, range $31–$61.
Sep 2026	TD Cowen · 11 Sep	Buy	Rating and $61 target maintained (+63% implied), the latest action recorded before the 17 Sep Investor Day.
Aug 2026	Goldman Sachs · 18 Aug	Buy	Rating retained; target cut to $54 from $56 (+44% implied) five days after the Q2 print.
Aug 2026	TD · Scotiabank · BMO · RBC · J.P. Morgan · 13–14 Aug	Buy	Post-Q2 moves: TD to $61 from $60, Scotiabank (Sector Outperform) to $54 from $53 and BMO back to $51 from $50; RBC held $61 and J.P. Morgan $56.
Jul 2026	Morgan Stanley · 21 Jul / BMO · 27 Jul	Overweight	Trims ahead of the print: Morgan Stanley (Overweight) to $59 from $61 and BMO to $50 from $51 (about a 6% discount to its sum-of-the-parts).

Coverage limitation: Seeking Alpha, Morningstar and CNBC pages were not accessible and analyst note text was not available, so each key point reflects the reported rating and target changes rather than the note’s reasoning. The two consensus sets draw on different contributor lists (13 analysts against 11) and are reported separately, not blended. No analyst action after the 17 Sep Investor Day had been reported by the 18 Sep close.

06Insider & Board Activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal Read
12 Aug 2026	Board of Directors	Dividend declared: $0.07 per share, up from $0.06	—	—	—	Supportive; ex-date 14 Sep, payable 29 Sep
Q2 2026	Company (issuer repurchases)	Class A share buybacks	—	—	$111M	Soft bid: under one day of trading value
1 Jan – 30 Jun 2026	Company (issuer repurchases)	Class A share buybacks, year to date	~13.8M^e	~$42	~$580M	Today’s price is 11% below the average paid; in line with the last two years’ pace
16 Jul 2026	Shareholders and Board	Approved simplification: BN and Brookfield Wealth Solutions combine one-for-one	—	—	—	Structure change; closing late Q4, outside the window
Last 12 months to 1 Sep 2026	Directors and officers	No insider transactions reported	—	—	—	Neutral: no insider buying at the low, and no selling

Source and limitation: BN is a foreign private issuer that files Form 40-F, so its directors and officers do not file US Form 4s. GuruFocus (1 Sep 2026) shows no insider transactions in the past 12 months; Canadian insider reports (SEDI) were not reviewed. Vendor data put insider ownership at 12.16% and institutional ownership at 61.91% of shares, with short interest of 20.06M shares (0.90%). The year-to-date share count is derived: $580M ÷ about $42. Buyback figures are from the Q2 2026 release and call.

07Recent News & Catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
Sep 2026 (exp.)	Brookfield disclosures	Sale of Multiplex to Obayashi (about $526M) expected to close in September.	Yes
17 Sep 2026	Brookfield / BAM · GlobeNewswire	Joint Investor Day in New York (BAM 12:45 pm, BN 3:00 pm ET). Presentation content could not be retrieved for this report; BN closed +0.4% to $37.19 and +0.9% the next day. Target resets may follow on 21–25 Sep.	Yes
16 Sep 2026	Federal Reserve · Fox Business · Schwab	Fed raises rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00% on a 12–0 vote, the first hike since 2023; the Chair says inflation is still too high. The ten-year yield is back near 5%. The next repricing points are the 30 Sep, 2 Oct and 14 Oct data.	Yes
15 Sep 2026	GlobeNewswire	Brookfield agrees to acquire 100% of Reliance Worldwide at US$3.38 per share (US$2.8B enterprise value), all cash.	No
14 Sep 2026	Brookfield	Ex-dividend date for the $0.07 quarterly dividend (declared 12 Aug; up from $0.06).	Yes
13 Aug 2026	Brookfield Q2 release · Investing.com	Q2 2026: DE before realizations $1.43B ($0.61 per share, +15%); total DE $0.66 against $0.617 consensus; record $77B raised; fee-bearing capital $672B. Shares +0.9% on the day, −2.8% the next.	No
6 Aug 2026	GlobeNewswire	Boralex receives all regulatory approvals for its arrangement with Brookfield and La Caisse; closing timing not stated in the item.	Possible
3 Aug 2026	GlobeNewswire	Brookfield completes its acquisition of Oaktree.	No
25 Jul 2026	GlobeNewswire	NAVER, NVIDIA and Brookfield to expand Korea’s national AI factory infrastructure buildout.	No
17 Jul 2026	GlobeNewswire	Shareholders approve the BN and Brookfield Wealth Solutions simplification; closing expected late Q4 pending regulatory approvals.	No — late Q4

Ten items, newest first; the expected September close sits at the top. The final column states whether the event, or its follow-through, falls inside 19 Sep – 19 Oct 2026.

Catalysts inside the window

21–25 Sep: possible analyst target resets after the 17 Sep Investor Day (moves consensus and sentiment). 23 Sep: Apollo’s CEO at a bank-hosted financials conference (group read-through). 29 Sep: BN’s $0.07 dividend is payable. 30 Sep: Q2 GDP (third estimate) and August PCE, the key rate print. 2 Oct: September payrolls. 7 Oct: FOMC minutes. 14 Oct: September CPI. 15 Oct: retail sales and PPI. Mid-October: big-bank Q3 earnings (dates unverified; group read-through). September: close of the Multiplex sale (about $526M).

Outside the window: Blackstone Q3 ≈22 Oct, FOMC 27–28 Oct, a 1 Nov preferred-share redemption, Apollo ≈3 Nov, KKR and Brookfield Asset Management ≈6 Nov, BN Q3 ≈12 Nov, and the simplification closing in late Q4.

08Ratings & Price Targets — Peer Frame

Company	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	Rev Growth (latest Q, YoY)	Source View	News Sentiment
Brookfield Corporation (BN)	$37.51	$92.0B^e	$80.7B	1.14×^e	+8.5%	Buy PT $57.40 (13)	Positive 4/3/0
Blackstone (BX)	$124.96	$155.4B	$15.5B	10.0×	+28.6%	Buy PT $144.38 (23)	Neutral 1/5/1
KKR & Co. (KKR)	$98.81	$88.2B	$25.8B	3.4×	+7.8%	Buy PT $128.67 (22)	Neutral 0/3/0
Apollo Global (APO)	$125.91	$74.4B	$35.6B	2.1×	+63.8%	Buy PT $153.47 (21)	Neutral 1/2/0
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM)	$46.06	$72.6B	$5.7B	12.7×	+60.8%	Buy PT $57.19	Positive 7/5/0
Peer median	—	$81.3B	$20.7B	6.7×	+44.7%	—	—

Data tier: prices are Massive closes for 18 Sep 2026; market caps, TTM revenue and latest-quarter growth are S&P Global figures via stockanalysis.com. BN’s market cap is derived from 2,451.8M Class A shares (vendor: $83.1B on weighted shares); peer caps count all units — Blackstone’s $155.4B includes partnership units against $94.1B for the listed class alone — so P/S is not fully like-for-like. BN’s revenue is consolidated operating revenue plus equity-accounted income, not fee revenue, and Brookfield Asset Management is 73% owned by BN, so the two overlap. Source View is the consensus rating with the mean target and analyst count. News Sentiment counts positive/neutral/negative ticker-level insights on Massive news over 30 days (BN over 90 days: 17/9/0), an automated classification. BN’s news tone is positive while its price is falling.

8.5Analyst Price Targets — Multiple Sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / Source	Current Target	Previous	Date	Implied Return	Rating	Direction
TD Cowen	$61	$61	11 Sep 2026	+62.6%	Buy	► Maintained
Goldman Sachs	$54	$56	18 Aug 2026	+44.0%	Buy	▼ Lowered
TD	$61	$60	14 Aug 2026	+62.6%	Buy	▲ Raised
Scotiabank	$54	$53	14 Aug 2026	+44.0%	Sector Outperform	▲ Raised
RBC Capital Markets	$61	$61	14 Aug 2026	+62.6%	Outperform	► Maintained
J.P. Morgan	$56	—	14 Aug 2026	+49.3%	Overweight	► Maintained
BMO Capital Markets	$51	$50	13 Aug 2026	+36.0%	Outperform	▲ Raised
Morgan Stanley	$59	$61	21 Jul 2026	+57.3%	Overweight	▼ Lowered
National Bank Financial	$60	$58	15 May 2026	+60.0%	Outperform	▲ Raised
CIBC	$52	$50.67	14 Nov 2025	+38.6%	Outperform	▲ Raised

Ten rows, newest first. TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, RBC, J.P. Morgan and BMO are from S&P Global via stockanalysis.com; TD, Scotiabank, Morgan Stanley, National Bank Financial and CIBC are from MarketBeat and Investing.com. Implied return is against the $37.51 close. Direction is ▲ raised, ► maintained, ▼ lowered. J.P. Morgan’s $56 is the S&P Global figure and its previous target is not shown: MarketBeat’s last recorded J.P. Morgan target is $62 (12 May), which still sets the MarketBeat high, so the two sets differ there.

Metric	Value
Last close	$37.51
Consensus target	$54.40
Median target	$56.50
High target	$61.00
Low target	$31.00
Implied upside to consensus	+45.0%
Implied downside to low	−17.4%
Analysts contributing	11 (S&P) · 13 (MarketBeat)

Metrics use the S&P Global set (11 analysts; one Strong Sell at $31). The MarketBeat set (13 analysts) has a $57.40 consensus (+53.0%) and a $51–$62 range.

Target range vs last close

S&P Global set; the dashed line marks the $37.51 close.

09Fundamental Financial Analysis — Company Trends & Peer Comparison

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (diluted)	Gross Margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs Est.	Next-day Reaction
Q3 2024	$20,807M	−12.9%	−17.6%	$0.01	26.3%	$7,225M^e	34.7%^e	n/a	−1.7%
Q4 2024	$20,460M	−1.7%	−18.0%	$0.16	47.9%	$10,372M^e	50.7%^e	Beat +14.7%	+0.9%
Q1 2025	$18,463M	−9.8%	−21.7%	$0.01	27.2%	$6,701M^e	36.3%^e	Beat +8.8%	−1.6%
Q2 2025	$18,550M	+0.5%	−22.3%	$0.10	25.0%	$7,149M^e	38.5%^e	Miss −1.0%	−0.3%
Q3 2025	$19,460M	+4.9%	−6.5%	$0.08	24.8%	$6,743M^e	34.7%^e	Beat +3.3%	+0.6%
Q4 2025	$21,184M	+8.9%	+3.5%	$0.30	48.6%	$11,049M^e	52.2%^e	Beat +9.8%	+0.3%
Q1 2026	$19,919M	−6.0%	+7.9%	$0.03	29.0%	$7,653M^e	38.4%^e	Beat +4.8%^†	−4.2%
Q2 2026	$20,129M	+1.1%	+8.5%	$0.14	25.8%	$7,879M^e	39.1%^e	Beat +7.0%	−2.8%
Q3 2026 consensus	n/m	—	—	$0.716 DE	—	—	—	Consensus, ≈12 Nov	—

Revenue is S&P Global’s standardised figure (IFRS revenue plus equity-accounted income); QoQ for Q3 2024 is against Q2 2024’s $23,875M. EPS is GAAP diluted EPS. Adj. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortisation, so the row is derived (marked ^e). vs Est. is distributable earnings (DE) per share against consensus (MarketBeat; † Investing.com); Q3 2024 has no consensus on file. Next-day Reaction is the close-to-close move on the session after the release. Q4 quarters carry year-end items — Q4 gross profit and D&A are roughly double the other quarters — so compare each quarter with the same quarter a year earlier. The grey row is the Q3 2026 consensus (report ≈12 Nov): revenue is n/m because the consensus vendor’s basis (about $1.6B a quarter) differs from reported revenue.

Revenue $M · own band

Operating margin % · own band

Revenue and margin share an x axis but not a scale, so they sit on two bands. Revenue was down 22% year on year in Q2 2025 and has grown year on year for the last three quarters; operating margin has held between 24.7% and 29.6% throughout, so the swing is in revenue, not in profitability.

9.1 — Liquidity

Metric	30 Jun 2026	31 Dec 2025	31 Dec 2024	Target / Status
Current ratio	1.01	1.27	1.26	1.5–3.0 healthy Below range
Quick ratio	0.91	1.13	1.12	≥1.0 healthy Slipped below 1.0
Cash ratio	0.21	0.26	0.26	Industry dependent Lower

Current assets were $71.4B against current liabilities of $70.5B at 30 Jun 2026 ($80.3B against $63.5B at 31 Dec 2025); the ratio fell because current assets dropped $8.9B while current liabilities rose $7.0B, and cash slipped to $14.9B from $16.2B. Ratios are derived from S&P Global balance sheets (quick ratio excludes inventories). Balance-sheet liquidity is a weak guide for an asset manager and insurer; parent-level deployable capital is $210B ($96B of cash, financial assets and undrawn credit plus $114B of uncalled commitments).

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current Ratio	Net Cash Position	Liquidity Status
Brookfield Corporation (BN)	1.01	−$254.03B	Adequate
Blackstone (BX)	0.87	−$12.64B	Tight
KKR & Co. (KKR)	0.86	−$8.61B	Tight
Apollo Global (APO)	1.95	+$5.73B	Strong
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM)	1.27	−$2.59B	Adequate
Peer median	1.07	−$5.60B	—

Liquidity Status: current ratio 1.5 or above is Strong, 1.0–1.5 Adequate, below 1.0 Tight. Net cash is total cash less total debt on a consolidated basis, so it is negative by construction for these balance-sheet-heavy groups. BN’s figure is consolidated debt of all controlled entities, not a parent-level measure. Vendor data, most recent reported quarter.

9.2 — Leverage and solvency

Metric	30 Jun 2026	31 Dec 2025	31 Dec 2024	Target / Status
Debt-to-equity	1.61	1.64	1.51	Lower is safer Little changed
Debt-to-assets	0.51	0.53	0.51	<0.5 conservative Above 0.5
Interest coverage	1.25× (TTM)	n/a	n/a	>2.5 healthy Below 2.5×
Debt service coverage	n/m	n/m	n/m	>1.25 healthy · not disclosed on a comparable basis
Debt / EBITDA (vendor)	8.23×	8.80×	8.18×	Lower is safer; vendor figure
Corporate borrowings	$14.7B	$14.3B	n/a	Parent-level debt: 2.6×^e LTM DE before realizations; no 2026 maturities

Total debt is S&P Global’s consolidated figure ($268.9B at 30 Jun 2026) and includes borrowings of consolidated infrastructure, renewable-power, real-estate and insurance entities that are largely non-recourse to the parent. Parent-level corporate borrowings are $14.7B with a 15-year weighted average term. Interest coverage is the vendor’s TTM figure only; debt service coverage is not disclosed on a comparable basis, so it is shown as n/m. Debt-to-equity uses total equity including non-controlling interests.

9.3 — Profitability

Metric	Q2 2026	TTM	Q2 2025	FY2025	FY2024	Trend
Gross margin	25.8%	32.3%	25.0%	31.9%	27.6%	▲
Operating margin	25.7%	27.2%	24.9%	26.5%	23.4%	▲
Net margin (to common)	1.6%	1.6%	1.2%	1.5%	0.5%	▲
Adj. EBITDA margin	39.1%^e	40.5%	38.5%^e	40.7%^e	n/a	▲
Return on assets	0.25%^e	0.24%^e	n/a	0.22%^e	0.10%^e	▲
Return on equity (vendor)	—	2.26%	—	—	—	→
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM), common equity	3.0%^e	3.0%^e	n/a	2.6%^e	n/a	▲

Margins use S&P Global figures. Net margin here is net income to common shareholders ($1,257M TTM ÷ $80.7B); the peer table uses the vendor’s 1.77%, which is net income to shareholders including preferred dividends. Adj. EBITDA margin is derived (operating income plus D&A) except the TTM cell, which is the vendor’s 40.5% (the derived TTM figure is 41.3%); FY2024 D&A is incomplete, so it is n/a. Return on assets is net income ÷ period-end total assets (Q2 annualised); no June 2025 balance sheet was retrieved. The vendor’s 2.26% ROE is measured on total equity including non-controlling interests; DuPont here is on common equity: TTM 1.56% × 0.154 × 12.4 = 3.0%.

Peer comparison	Gross	Op Margin	Net Margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Profitability Rank
Brookfield Corporation (BN)	32.3%	27.2%	1.8%	40.5%	2.3%	5 of 5
Blackstone (BX)	100.0%	48.5%	22.7%	n/a	31.4%	2 of 5
KKR & Co. (KKR)	54.8%	25.7%	12.2%	n/a	7.3%	3 of 5
Apollo Global (APO)	36.1%	21.9%	5.3%	n/a	11.4%	4 of 5
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM)	74.4%	65.8%	48.9%	66.8%	26.8%	1 of 5
Peer median	64.6%	37.1%	17.5%	n/a	19.1%	—

Vendor figures on each company’s own revenue definition (Blackstone’s 100% gross margin reflects no reported cost of revenue), so margins are not fully like-for-like. Profitability Rank is the average of ranks on gross margin, operating margin, net margin and ROE, ties broken on net margin. Adj. EBITDA is reported for Brookfield Asset Management only; there is no peer median.

9.4 — Efficiency, growth and platform

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year	Comment
Asset turnover	0.15×^e	0.15×^e	TTM revenue ÷ period-end assets (30 Jun 2026; FY2025 at 31 Dec 2025). Low by design: $525.5B of assets earn mostly through equity income and value changes, not revenue
EPS growth (GAAP, Q2 YoY)	+40%	n/m	$0.14 against $0.10; a small base, and GAAP EPS is a fraction of distributable earnings
DE per share growth (LTM, before realizations)	+7%	n/a	$2.39 against $2.24; Q2 alone was +15% ($0.61 against $0.53)
Dividend per share (annual)	$0.28	$0.24	Current run-rate of $0.07 a quarter, raised from $0.06; prior-year column is FY2025 and FY2024 was $0.21. About 12%^e of LTM DE per share
Dividend yield	0.75%^e	n/a	Annualised $0.28 ÷ $37.51; payable 29 Sep, inside the window

Efficiency and per-share growth. GAAP EPS growth of +40% is off a $0.10 base. LTM DE per share is the cleaner earnings-growth measure.

Platform metrics

Metric	Q2 2026	Q2 2025	YoY	Comment
Fee-bearing capital	$672B	≈$565B^e	+19%	Record; $77B raised in Q2 alone
DE before realizations	$1,427M	$1,253M	+13.9%	+15% per share ($0.61 against $0.53)
Total DE	$1,548M	$1,385M	+11.8%	$0.66 against $0.59 per share; beat consensus by 7.0%
Asset Management DE	$740M	$650M	+13.8%	Fee-related earnings +20%
Wealth Solutions DE	$480M	$391M	+22.8%	$191B of insurance assets, including Just Group’s $45B
Operating businesses DE	$361M	$350M	+3.1%	Infrastructure and renewables up, property lower

Q2 2026 release (13 Aug 2026). Year-ago fee-bearing capital is derived from the reported +19%; segment DE is before realizations of carried interest and principal investments. YoY for DE lines is on aggregate dollars; the per-share growth is +15% before realizations.

Company	Asset Turnover	Rev / Employee	Employees	EPS Growth	Div Yield	Growth Rank
Brookfield Corporation (BN)	0.16×	≈$0.32M^e	~250,000	n/a	0.75%	4 of 5
Blackstone (BX)	0.33×	$2.93M	5,285	14.2%	3.79%	3 of 5
KKR & Co. (KKR)	0.06×	$5.12M	5,043	21.2%	0.79%	5 of 5
Apollo Global (APO)	0.08×	$14.01M	2,540	14.3%	1.79%	1 of 5
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM)	0.32×	n/m	250,000¹	15.2%	4.36%	2 of 5
Peer median	0.20×	$5.12M	—	14.7%	2.79%	—

Vendor figures. Peer EPS Growth is the vendor’s three-year EPS forecast growth (S&P Global consensus); BN has no vendor forecast, so it is n/a — LTM DE per share grew 7%. Rev / Employee for BN is ≈$323k on about 250,000 employees across consolidated operating businesses; ¹ Brookfield Asset Management’s vendor employee count is group-wide, so its figure is n/m. Growth Rank is by latest-quarter revenue growth (BN +8.5%, fourth of five).

9.5 — Valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM	69.5×^e	Price ÷ TTM GAAP EPS of $0.54 (vendor: 66.1× on market cap). GAAP EPS is 21% of DE per share
Forward P/DE	13.1×^e	Price ÷ four times Q3 consensus DE per share of $0.716; peer median forward P/E 17.1×
Price / book	1.97×^e	On common book value of $19.03 a share; the vendor’s 0.50× uses total equity including $120.1B of non-controlling interests
Price / sales TTM	1.14×^e	Peer median 6.7×; BN’s revenue is consolidated operating revenue, not fee revenue
EV / EBITDA	14.3×	Vendor figure; enterprise value includes consolidated debt and non-controlling interests
PEG	0.9–1.9^e	Forward P/DE ÷ +15% (Q2 DE per share growth) or ÷ +7% (LTM); the range shows the sensitivity

Derived multiples (marked ^e) use the $37.51 close and are listed in source 4. The vendor’s trailing P/E of 66.1× is on its own market-cap basis; price ÷ EPS gives 69.5×.

Price / sales	Price	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	P/S TTM	vs Peer Median
Brookfield Corporation (BN)	$37.51	$92.0B^e	$80.7B	1.14×^e	−83%
Blackstone (BX)	$124.96	$155.4B	$15.5B	10.04×	+49%
KKR & Co. (KKR)	$98.81	$88.2B	$25.8B	3.41×	−49%
Apollo Global (APO)	$125.91	$74.4B	$35.6B	2.09×	−69%
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM)	$46.06	$72.6B	$5.7B	12.65×	+88%
Peer median	—	$81.3B	$20.7B	6.73×	—

BN’s market cap is derived from 2,451.8M Class A shares; peer market caps count all units. Brookfield Asset Management is 73% owned by BN, so the two overlap. vs Peer Median is each company’s P/S against the median of the four peers.

Earnings & growth-adjusted	TTM EPS	P/E TTM	Rev Growth	PEG	Assessment
Brookfield Corporation (BN)	$0.54	69.5×^e	+8.5%	0.9–1.9^e	Mixed: discount on DE, premium on GAAP
Blackstone (BX)	$4.47	28.0×	+28.6%	1.24	In line
KKR & Co. (KKR)	$3.13	31.4×	+7.8%	0.70	Cheap on growth
Apollo Global (APO)	$2.81	44.9×	+63.8%	0.94	In line
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM)	$1.72	26.8×	+60.8%	n/a	In line
Peer median	—	29.7×	+44.7%	0.94	—

Peer PEG is the vendor’s; BN’s is derived as a range because there is no vendor EPS forecast: forward P/DE 13.1× ÷ 15% is 0.9 and ÷ 7% is 1.9. Assessment compares P/E and PEG with the peer median; Brookfield Asset Management has no vendor PEG.

Fundamentals set how much room the price has rather than which way it goes: distributable earnings per share are compounding (+15% in Q2), the forward multiple of 13.1× sits 23% below the peer median of 17.1×, and liquidity is adequate but thinner (current ratio 1.01, from 1.27). That supports the view that the 16.1% fall since the Q2 print is not an earnings problem — but nothing in these statements updates before about 12 November, so inside the window the price will follow rates and the sector, not the ledger.

10Regime Analysis — Persistency & Volatility

+0.07

Persistency, placing BN in Q1 Volatile Trend — but only just above zero

406 daily observations, 6 Feb 2025 – 18 Sep 2026. As of 18 Sep 2026 — 0 trading days behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

10.1 — Regime trace

BN — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (406 daily points, oldest faint → newest bright)

Q1 Volatile trend · Persistency > 0, Volatility > 0Q2 Volatile chop · Persistency < 0, Volatility > 0Q3 Quiet range · Persistency < 0, Volatility < 0Q4 Quiet drift · Persistency > 0, Volatility < 0

Persistency on x (−1 to 1), Volatility on y (−1 to 1); the green diamond is the latest reading. Source: Trader workbook, Tracked regimes daily (BN is not in the individual-regime tab). Window 6 Feb 2025 – 18 Sep 2026, 406 daily observations. As of 18 Sep 2026 — 0 trading days behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std Dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	+0.065	+0.003	0.100	−0.308	+0.084	60th	Random / Neutral. Positive since 2 Sep after a long spell at or below zero, and within 0.02 of its window high of +0.084.
Volatility	+0.347	+0.001	0.289	−0.497	+0.500	85th	Elevated Vol. Higher than 85% of the window’s readings; the series is bounded at ±0.5.

Currently in Q1 Volatile Trend, held 12 consecutive periods. Q1 runs in this window (nine, including the current one) have a median length of 12 days (mean 16.8, longest 64), so the current run is already typical in length. The reading is not borderline: Persistency sits 0.065 from the axis, just outside the 0.05 band, so the call stands but is close to the line. Volatility here is the workbook’s normalised regime score, not realised volatility: realised 21-day volatility is 20.7% annualised against 28.3% over 252 days, so price swings have been calmer than the year’s average even as the regime score ranks in its 85th percentile — the two measures are built differently and need not agree. As of 18 Sep 2026 — 0 trading days behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

10.3 — Regime occupancy & transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of period	Character
Q1	Volatile Trend Current	37.2%	Directional moves that extend, wide ranges — breakouts have worked, stops need room.
Q2	Volatile Chop	13.1%	Whipsaw — trend-following has been punished; fading extremes has worked better.
Q3	Quiet Range	23.4%	Tight, mean-reverting range — historically the most comfortable regime for selling premium.
Q4	Quiet Drift	26.4%	Low-volatility drift — historically the most favourable regime for holding long.

Share of the 406 daily observations spent in each quadrant, 6 Feb 2025 – 18 Sep 2026. Character is the standard reading of each quadrant, stated as history, not as a forecast. As of 18 Sep 2026 — 0 trading days behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

Transition	Count	Note
Volatile Trend → Quiet Drift	6	The most common exit from BN’s current quadrant: volatility fades while the drift persists.
Quiet Drift → Volatile Trend	5	The reverse move; the two quadrants are neighbours on the Volatility axis.
Quiet Range → Volatile Chop	4	Volatility rising without persistence.
Volatile Chop → Quiet Range	3	Whipsaw calming into a range.
Volatile Chop → Volatile Trend	3	Chop resolving into a trend.
Volatile Trend → Volatile Chop	2	A trend breaking down while volatility stays high.

The six most frequent of 24 quadrant changes in 405 day-to-day steps; a seventh (Quiet Drift → Quiet Range) occurred once. As of 18 Sep 2026 — 0 trading days behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

Persistency moves slowly.

The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks: BN’s Persistency sat at exactly 0.0801 for 127 consecutive sessions (6 Feb – 8 Aug 2025), which is why the trace shows long vertical runs. That is the data behaving normally. These statistics describe 6 Feb 2025 – 18 Sep 2026 (406 observations) and are not predictions.

11Driver Exposure — Market & Sector Covariation

of BN’s daily variance is one sector driver

Regression on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 499 overlapping observations, 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026. Drivers as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

11.1 — Driver correlations

Factor	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d (current)	Rolling Min	Rolling Max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	−0.064	0.4	0.120	−0.293	0.259	Variable	Negative
Market Driver 2	0.052	0.3	0.136	−0.263	0.438	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 3	0.073	0.5	−0.163	−0.233	0.412	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 4	−0.080	0.6	−0.101	−0.338	0.202	Variable	Negative
Market Driver 5	−0.070	0.5	−0.359	−0.365	0.272	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.631	39.8	−0.595	−0.826	−0.371	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 2	0.095	0.9	0.177	−0.316	0.437	Variable	Positive
Sector Driver 3	0.068	0.5	−0.053	−0.428	0.391	Variable	Positive

Market Drivers 1–5 then Sector Drivers 1–3. Method: daily log returns of BN against first-differenced Market Driver levels and the return-scaled Sector Driver values; 499 overlapping daily observations, 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026; rolling window 60 sessions. Each driver is a statistical component whose sign is arbitrary, so Direction states the sign of BN’s relationship to the driver as oriented in the workbook, not a bullish or bearish reading. Stability reads Stable when the rolling correlation’s range is under 0.4 and Variable otherwise, so a driver can vary in size yet keep its sign. Drivers as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic decomposition

Systematic 39.8%

Idiosyncratic 60.2%

Factor	Raw Beta	Standardised Beta	Share of Explained Variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	−0.00001	−0.006	0.1%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.367	−0.631	99.9%

Regression of BN’s daily log return on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 together (499 observations, 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026; systematic 39.8% = R²). Share of explained variance splits R² by standardised beta × correlation. The vendor’s beta of 1.82 (S&P Global) and Market Driver 1’s R² of 0.4% are not in conflict: the vendor figure is measured against the whole index over a longer look-back, while Market Driver 1 is one statistical component of daily market variation. Over the 22 sessions to 17 Sep, the last date in the driver data, BN’s log return was −13.9% (the −11.0% in the header strip is a simple price return from 18 Aug to 18 Sep); the two drivers account for −0.76 points (Sector Driver 1) and +0.05 points (Market Driver 1) of it. The rest is unexplained by these two drivers, and the peers’ 6–14% declines over the same period suggest a common factor they do not capture. Drivers as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

BN behaves as a sector proxy, not as a beta vehicle and not as a purely idiosyncratic name: Sector Driver 1 carries 99.9% of the explained variance and Market Driver 1 essentially none. For the next 10–30 days that means the alternative-manager complex and the rate backdrop decide the month, and index moves matter far less than BN’s own headlines; the 60% idiosyncratic share is real, but no dated BN event sits inside the window to activate it.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 against BN’s daily returns, 60-session window, 148 points (every third daily reading), 13 Dec 2024 – 17 Sep 2026. Sector Driver 1 is now −0.595 against a full-period average of −0.586: it has stayed between −0.826 (7 Apr 2025) and −0.371 (10 Jul 2026) and never left negative territory. Market Driver 1 has flipped sign repeatedly — now 0.120 against an average of −0.062, ranging from −0.293 (2 Jan 2026) to 0.259 (22 Jan 2025) — so there is no stable market link to lean on. Drivers as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

12Performance by Market Regime

−2.28

Sharpe

BN’s Sharpe ratio when the Financials group sits in Quiet Drift — its worst configuration, and the one it is in now

56 days across 3 episodes, 39% hit rate, −19.0% cumulative; the Financials group has been in Quiet Drift for 26 consecutive days. Market regimes as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

Every group is named, never its proxy ticker; all 14 market series map to a group label and the unmapped list is empty. Conditional statistics are BN’s own daily returns grouped by each market group’s regime, describe the stated window and are not forecasts. Regime membership before the latest reading comes from the workbook’s sign-coded quadrant history, so magnitudes are exact only for the last row.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile Chop	166	33.3%	+17.7%	+28.0%	36.3%	0.77	53.0%	+12.12%	−8.52%
Volatile Trend	101	20.2%	+1.9%	+4.7%	26.3%	0.18	49.5%	+5.27%	−4.28%
Quiet Drift Current	118	23.6%	−1.6%	−3.4%	25.7%	−0.13	50.8%	+4.03%	−6.86%
Quiet Range	114	22.8%	−9.4%	−19.6%	30.6%	−0.64	53.5%	+4.57%	−6.20%

BN’s daily returns grouped by the US market group’s regime, 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Current regime run: 10 consecutive days. Market regimes as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile Chop	174	34.9%	+46.3%	+73.6%	34.5%	2.13	55.2%	+12.12%	−8.52%
Quiet Drift Current	78	15.6%	+2.1%	+7.0%	25.1%	0.28	50.0%	+4.03%	−4.46%
Volatile Trend	101	20.2%	−11.3%	−26.0%	27.2%	−0.95	48.5%	+5.27%	−6.86%
Quiet Range	146	29.3%	−19.3%	−31.0%	30.9%	−1.00	51.4%	+4.57%	−6.20%

BN’s daily returns grouped by the SP500 group’s regime, 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Current regime run: 10 consecutive days. Market regimes as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q4 Quiet Drift

Market Regime	Days	% of Period	Cumulative Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Vol	Sharpe	Hit Rate	Best Day	Worst Day
Volatile Chop	228	45.7%	+24.1%	+26.9%	31.9%	0.84	52.6%	+12.12%	−8.52%
Volatile Trend	33	6.6%	−1.0%	−7.3%	33.1%	−0.22	45.5%	+5.27%	−4.28%
Quiet Range	234	46.9%	−10.6%	−11.4%	29.5%	−0.38	52.6%	+4.57%	−7.70%
Quiet Drift Current Thin sample	4	0.8%	−2.7%	n/m	n/m	n/m	25.0%	+0.43%	−1.61%

BN’s daily returns grouped by the Global market group’s regime, 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Current regime run: 4 consecutive days. Quiet Drift holds only 4 days (14–17 Sep 2026): the regime script drops buckets under 10 days, so the row is shown only because it is the current regime, with annualised figures withheld and no conclusion drawn. Share of period is measured on all 499 days. Market regimes as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

12.2 — Cross-group summary

Group	Current Regime	Best Regime for BN	Worst Regime	Cum. Return in Current	Sharpe in Current	Sharpe Spread	Days in Current
US market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	−1.6%	−0.13	1.41	118 (run 10)
SP500	Q4 Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	+2.1%	0.28	3.13	78 (run 10)
Global market	Q4 Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	−2.7%	n/m	1.22	4 (run 4)
Technology	Q3 Quiet Range	Quiet Drift	Quiet Range	−15.7%	−0.75	7.33	192 (run 83)
Financials	Q4 Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	−19.0%	−2.28	3.56	56 (run 26)
Energy	Q1 Volatile Trend	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	−23.7%	−1.60	3.47	116 (run 59)
Utilities	Q2 Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	Volatile Trend	+8.6%	0.50	2.52	141 (run 4)
Europe	Q1 Volatile Trend	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	−20.0%	−1.26	3.27	123 (run 3)
Gold	Q2 Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	−2.0%	−0.04	0.96	405 (run 263)
VIX Near	Q4 Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	−2.4%	−0.35	3.76	59 (run 13)
VIX Mid	Q4 Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	−15.9%	−1.05	2.59	132 (run 94)
Bonds near	Q2 Volatile Chop	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	+18.5%	1.10	1.70	133 (run 5)
Bonds mid	Q2 Volatile Chop	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	+14.5%	2.57	2.73	70 (run 4)
Bonds long	Q3 Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift†	−0.8%	−0.02	4.50†	359 (run 32)

All 14 mapped groups: US market, SP500, Global market, Technology, Financials, Energy, Utilities, Europe, Gold, VIX Near, VIX Mid, Bonds near, Bonds mid, Bonds long. Red rows: the group’s current regime is BN’s worst; green rows: BN’s best. Days in Current is the total days in that regime over the window, with the current consecutive run in brackets. † the best or worst regime, or the Sharpe spread, rests on a bucket of under 30 days (thin sample) — no conclusion drawn. The Global market row excludes its four-day current regime from best, worst and spread. Cum. Return in Current is BN’s cumulative return over all days the group spent in that regime. Window 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026, 499 daily observations. Market regimes as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

12.3 — Sensitivity

Most sensitive to the Technology regime (Sharpe spread 7.33); Financials, the next-highest sector group, follows at 3.56. 11 of 14 groups exceed a Sharpe spread of 1.5, the level this report treats as material sensitivity — only the US market (1.41), Global market (1.22) and Gold (0.96) do not — so BN is sensitive to market regimes broadly, not to one group. Technology’s spread rests on 42 days of Quiet Drift with a Sharpe of 6.58, an extreme figure from a short regime that should be read with caution.

History after the dominant group’s current regime. Financials is treated as the dominant group because BN’s sector driver dominates its variance and BN is classified in Financials. After earlier Financials Quiet Drift days BN’s next-10-session return averaged −3.9% (median −3.6%; positive in 13% of 47 windows) and its next-20-session return −5.6% (median −4.9%; positive in 8% of 37 windows), against all-days averages of +0.3% and +0.8%. This is history, not a forecast: the windows overlap and come from just 3 episodes.

Currently in an unfavourable configuration. 6 of 14 groups place BN in its worst regime (Technology, Financials, Energy, Europe, Gold, VIX Mid) and only 2 in its best (Bonds near and Bonds mid). Financials Quiet Drift is the sharpest case: Sharpe −2.28, a 39% hit rate and a cumulative −19.0% over 56 days.

The broad-market and own-regime record points the other way. With the US market and SP500 groups both in Quiet Drift, BN’s next-10-session return averaged +1.4% and +1.5% (median about +1.1%; positive in 62% and 59% of windows, over 5 and 7 episodes). In its own Volatile Trend regime the next-20-session median has been +0.9% (58% positive, 9 episodes). These are the bull case’s history; they conflict with the Financials record, which is why the regime read is neutral rather than bearish.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 20 Sep 2024 – 17 Sep 2026, not the future. Rows marked thin sample hold fewer than 30 days and their annualised figures should not be relied on; buckets under 10 days are dropped from the statistics. Forward windows after each regime day overlap, so the 47 ten-session windows after Financials Quiet Drift days come from three episodes. Market regime series as of 17 Sep 2026 — 1 trading day behind the 19 Sep 2026 report date.

13News & Market Narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
18 Sep 26	US stocks end mixed as the market digests the Fed’s hike — S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Dow −0.2% — with the ten-year yield near 5.00% (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet).	Neutral
17 Sep 26	Brookfield and Brookfield Asset Management hold a joint Investor Day in New York; BN closes +0.4% (GlobeNewswire). The presentation content could not be retrieved for this report.	Neutral
16 Sep 26	The Federal Reserve raises rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00% on a 12–0 vote, the first hike since 2023; 16 of 19 officials project at least one more in 2026 (Fox Business, Schwab).	Negative
15 Sep 26	Brookfield agrees to acquire Reliance Worldwide for US$3.38 a share, an enterprise value of US$2.8B, all cash (GlobeNewswire).	Positive
15 Sep 26	Two Motley Fool comparisons of Bloom Energy with GE Vernova and Diamondback Energy tag BN as a related ticker; Brookfield has a $25B partnership with Bloom (The Motley Fool).	Neutral
18 Aug 26	A Motley Fool piece asks whether NVIDIA’s $500B AI-infrastructure financing plan should give investors pause; BN is among the tagged tickers (The Motley Fool).	Neutral
13 Aug 26	Brookfield reports Q2 2026: DE before realizations $1.43B ($0.61 a share, +15%), record $77B raised, fee-bearing capital $672B; shares +0.9% on the day and −2.8% the next (Brookfield, Investing.com).	Positive
6 Aug 26	Boralex receives all regulatory approvals for its arrangement with Brookfield and La Caisse (GlobeNewswire).	Positive
3 Aug 26	Brookfield completes its acquisition of Oaktree (GlobeNewswire).	Positive
25 Jul 26	NAVER, NVIDIA and Brookfield agree to expand the buildout of Korea’s national AI factory infrastructure (GlobeNewswire).	Positive
17 Jul 26	Shareholders approve the simplification combining BN and Brookfield Wealth Solutions; closing expected in late Q4 pending regulatory approvals (GlobeNewswire).	Positive
14 Jul 26	A Motley Fool feature describes Brookfield’s roughly $180B insurance business as a potential next growth engine (The Motley Fool).	Positive

Twelve items, newest first. Headlines are paraphrased. Sentiment is the author’s read of each item’s content for BN, not the price reaction — the 13 Aug results were read as positive although the shares fell 2.8% the next day. Rows marked Neutral include macro and third-party commentary with no direct BN development. Ticker-level classifications from Massive news are summarised in section 08.

14Company Snapshot

Field	Brookfield Corporation	Peer context
Legal name	Brookfield Corporation	—
Exchange / IPO	NYSE and TSX (BN); NYSE listing dated 20 Dec 2000	Blackstone, KKR and Apollo list on the NYSE; Brookfield Asset Management on the NYSE and TSX.
Domicile	Toronto, Ontario, Canada; foreign private issuer filing Form 40-F	Blackstone, KKR and Apollo are US filers with Form 4 insider reporting.
Sector / industry	Financials · Asset management	—
Market cap	$92.0B^e (MarketBeat $91.2B; vendor $83.1B on weighted shares)	Peer median $81.3B; Blackstone $155.4B, KKR $88.2B, Apollo $74.4B, Brookfield Asset Management $72.6B.
Employees	~250,000 (vendor reference data; another vendor shows 200,000)	Consolidated operating businesses, so not comparable with Blackstone (5,285), KKR (5,043) or Apollo (2,540).
TTM revenue	$80.7B (IFRS revenue plus equity-accounted income)	Peer median $20.7B on each company’s own revenue definition.
Revenue model	Three engines: asset management (fees and carried interest through Brookfield Asset Management), Wealth Solutions (insurance and annuities) and directly held operating businesses in infrastructure, renewable power and real estate. Distributable earnings are the management measure.	Apollo (Athene) and KKR (Global Atlantic) also pair asset management with insurance.
Key differentiators	Permanent capital and a balance sheet that invests alongside clients: $672B fee-bearing capital (+19%), a record $77B raised in Q2, $210B deployable, corporate borrowings of $14.7B with a 15-year average term, and a pending simplification that merges BN with Brookfield Wealth Solutions.	BN owns 73% of Brookfield Asset Management, so the two overlap.
CIK	0001001085	—
Website	bn.brookfield.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · high variance

The evidence favours the neutral case: earnings are compounding (DE per share +15%, fee-bearing capital +19%) and the forward multiple is 23% below the peer median, but over 19 Sep – 19 Oct BN is trading as a sector proxy — Sector Driver 1 explains 40% of its variance, its peers are down 6–14% in a month, the Financials group sits in BN’s worst regime, and no BN report arrives before about 12 November. It turns constructive if the ten-year yield holds at or below 5.00% through the 30 Sep PCE and 14 Oct CPI prints, and bearish on a close below the $36.67 low with yields above 5%.

Volatility Farm

1 · Prices, market capitalisations and reference data from the Massive market-data API (split-adjusted daily closes; 3-for-2 split effective 9 Oct 2025). Last completed session 18 Sep 2026 close.
2 · Financial statements from Brookfield Corporation’s Q2 2026 earnings release (13 Aug 2026), call and filings, and S&P Global standardised statements and ratios via stockanalysis.com (quarters Q3 2024 – Q2 2026; FY2024 and FY2025; balance sheets at 30 Jun 2026, 31 Dec 2025 and 31 Dec 2024). Consensus and price targets from MarketBeat, Investing.com and S&P Global; news from GlobeNewswire, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Fox Business, Schwab and Massive; insider data from GuruFocus (1 Sep 2026).
3 · Persistency, Volatility and Market/Sector Driver series from the proprietary Trader workbook (Tracked regimes daily, Market regimes daily and the Market and Sector driver tabs). BN regime series as of 18 Sep 2026, 0 trading days behind this report date; driver and market-regime series as of 17 Sep 2026, 1 trading day behind. BN sits in the Tracked regimes tab, not the individual-regime tab. Market-regime history before the latest row is stored in the workbook as sign-coded quadrant values, so quadrant membership is exact but magnitudes are available only for the last row; the Sector driver tab was parsed from a malformed layout and aligned to BN’s trading dates.
4 · Figures marked with a superscript e, “~” or “≈” are derived rather than reported: market capitalisation ($92.0B = 2,451.8M Class A shares × $37.51; vendors show $83.1B and $91.2B on other share bases); P/S (1.14×), P/E (69.5×), forward P/DE (13.1× = $37.51 ÷ [4 × $0.716]), price to common book (1.97× = $37.51 ÷ $19.03), the PEG range (0.9–1.9), dividend yield (0.75%) and payout (~12%); corporate borrowings to LTM DE (2.6×); current, quick and cash ratios, debt-to-equity and debt-to-assets; quarterly, TTM and annual gross, operating and net margins; Adj. EBITDA (operating income plus D&A) and its margins; return on assets and DuPont on common equity; asset turnover and revenue per employee (≈$0.32M); year-ago fee-bearing capital (≈$565B from the reported +19%); shares repurchased (~13.8M = $580M ÷ ~$42). Also calculated from reported or vendor inputs, without individual markers: quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes; DE beat rates and surprises against consensus; release-day and next-day price reactions and their averages; the 30-day, YTD, from-high and since-Q2 returns, the 22-session return percentile, moving averages, realised volatility and one-standard-deviation bands; implied returns to price targets; peer medians and ranks; the composite score; the mean, standard deviation, range and percentile of the regime series; regime occupancy, transitions and run lengths; cumulative and annualised returns, volatility, Sharpe ratios, hit rates and best and worst days by market regime, and forward returns after regime days; correlations, rolling correlations, betas and variance shares.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 19 Sep 2026 (window 19 Sep – 19 Oct 2026). Regime and driver statistics are descriptive of their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.

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