WMT · NYSE · Consumer Staples · Discount & Food Retail

Walmart beat and raised — and the market sold the one line that missed

In short

Walmart cleared its Q2 EPS bar and lifted full-year guidance, yet the stock lost 9.2% in a single session — its worst day since 2022 — because U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6% against a 3.5% estimate, the slowest in six years, and Q3 EPS guidance came in light. Over the next 10–30 days the name trades almost entirely on its own post-earnings drift: it is 99.8% idiosyncratic, sits below every major price target, has no catalyst until November, and has flipped into a volatile, mean-reverting regime where clean trends have not paid.

Research desk

2026-08-24 · Data as of 21 Aug 2026 close · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · high variance

Close 21 Aug 2026

$103.70

30 day

▼ 9.0%

Year to date

▼ 6.9%

From 52W high

▼ 23.3%

Ann. volatility

26.3%

Regime as of

21 Aug

Market cap

$825.3B

52W range

$95.42–135.16

TTM revenue

$735.8B

Rev growth

▲ 5.9%

P/S TTM

1.12×

P/E TTM

37.6×

Report date

24 Aug 2026

TTM EPS

$2.76

EV/EBITDA

~19×

US comps (Q2)

+2.6%

Global eComm

+23%

Net cash

≈ −$38B

Employees

2.10M

Next catalyst

~20 Nov

WMT · 30-day price

WMT · 1-year price

00Executive summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Revenue growth	Total revenue +5.9% YoY; global eCommerce +23%, advertising +38%, membership +17% — the mix is compounding	Bullish
US comparable sales	+2.6% ex-fuel vs 3.5% estimate — slowest in six years, decelerating from 4.6% a year ago	Mixed
Profitability	Gross margin +96bp to 25.4%, operating income +28.8%; but a large slice came from non-recurring tariff refunds	Bullish
Valuation vs peers	37.6× earnings, 1.12× sales — a premium to Target (17×) and Kroger, in line with Costco, rich for 2.6% comps	Mixed
Regime state	Volatile Chop (Q2): Persistency −0.15, Volatility +0.15 as of 21 Aug — flipped out of Quiet Range on the earnings gap, held 1 day	Neutral
Driver exposure	99.8% idiosyncratic — Market Driver 1 correlation 0.03, Sector Driver 1 −0.03; the company, not the index, sets the tape	Neutral
Key risk in window	Post-gap momentum break with no catalyst until November — dip must be bought against a 2.6% comp narrative	Bearish
Catalysts in window	No company event inside 10–30 days; next print ~20 Nov. Window is macro-driven drift (CPI, jobs, Fed)	Mixed
Price action	−9.2% on 5× volume, −23.3% from the May high, below the entire analyst target range	Bearish
Analyst frame	Consensus $129 (43 analysts, 36 Buy) implies +24.6% — even the lowest tracked target, $114, sits 9.9% above spot	Bullish
Overall view — next 10–30 days: A high-quality business re-rated on a single soft line, drifting with no near-term catalyst. Evidence favours a choppy, mean-reverting stabilisation over clean continuation in either direction.		Mixed

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge.

Walmart the business had a good quarter; Walmart the stock had a bad one. The gap between a +5.9% revenue, +23% eCommerce, +38% advertising print and a −9.2% tape is the whole story — a premium multiple met a 2.6% comp line and a light Q3 guide. For the next month, with no earnings until November and covariation to the market near zero, the path is a company-specific drift: the sell-off has already priced the disappointment, but nothing on the calendar forces a re-rate higher.

01Investment thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.

Bull case

The stock is below every target. Consensus is $129 across 43 analysts (36 Buy); even the lowest tracked post-earnings target, Truist's $114, sits 9.9% above the $103.70 close. A dip-buy at ~10% below the bears works if sentiment steadies.

The high-margin mix is compounding. Global advertising +38%, membership income +17%, eCommerce +23% — the parts of Walmart that carry real operating leverage are all growing double-digit, and none of that decelerated.

Guidance went up, not down. Full-year net-sales growth was raised to 4.0–5.0% and adjusted operating income to 7.0–8.5%; the reaction was about the rate of a beat, not a miss.

History says big drops mend. Walmart's three larger single-day drops over 15 years were each followed by 6–14% gains within a year — the reflex sell has historically overshot.

The regime rewards fading extremes. In Volatile Chop, Walmart has historically mean-reverted; a −9% gap is exactly the kind of extreme that this regime has tended to partly retrace.

Defensive bid intact. A Dividend King with 53 straight raises and 280M weekly shoppers is where money hides if the tape turns risk-off inside the window.

Neutral case

No catalyst until November. The next earnings print is ~20 Nov — outside the window. With nothing company-specific to trade, the stock drifts on macro prints and positioning, not fundamentals.

The disappointment is already priced. A −9.2% day on 5× volume is a large, fast repricing; the comp miss is now consensus, limiting further surprise in either direction.

Idiosyncratic means uncorrelated. At 99.8% company-specific variance, neither an index rally nor a sell-off reliably moves it — the month is a coin-weighted drift around the new $104 level.

Quality at a full price. 37.6× earnings is defensible for the best operator in retail but leaves little cushion; the stock can sit and digest rather than trend.

Volatility is elevated, not extreme. Realised vol at 26% (33% over 30 days) argues for wide, choppy ranges rather than a clean directional move.

Bear case

The multiple met the comp line. A 2.6% U.S. comp — the slowest since the early pandemic — does not support 37.6× earnings; the premium is the thing at risk as estimates reset.

The margin beat is borrowed. Much of the +96bp gross-margin gain came from one-time tariff refunds that management says "may not recur," and remaining refunds are earmarked for price cuts, not profit.

Forward guide disappointed. Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.62–0.64 landed below the ~$0.68 estimate, and full-year EPS of $2.80–2.87 sits under the ~$2.90 consensus at the midpoint.

Momentum has broken. Down 23% from the May high and back below its 200-day, the chart flipped from Quiet Range to Volatile Chop on the print — the regime where trend-following has been punished.

The market is in Walmart's worst regime. When the U.S. market sits in Volatile Trend — where it is now — Walmart's conditional return has historically been −34% annualised, the weakest of four states.

The consumer is trading down. Management flagged discretionary trade-offs from higher fuel costs among low- and middle-income shoppers, and an ~80bp pharmacy-pricing headwind to comps.

A great business does not owe its shareholders a great month — and with the comp line broken and no catalyst until November, Walmart has to earn its bid back one quiet session at a time.

02Composite assessment

The comp line, not the market, decides Walmart over the next 10–30 days: a 2.6% U.S. print broke the momentum that justified 38× earnings, and with the stock 99.8% idiosyncratic and no catalyst until November, only a stabilising tape — not an index rally — turns the drift, while a break of the $100 gap-fill level confirms it.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue growth

6.5

+5.9% total but US comps decelerated to 2.6%, the crux of the sell-off

Profitability

8.0

Gross margin 25.4% (+96bp), op income +28.8% — partly tariff-refund aided

Valuation

4.5

37.6× P/E, 1.12× sales — premium to Target/Kroger; PEG ~3.4

Earnings quality

5.5

EPS beat, but margin gain from non-recurring refunds; Q3 guide below consensus

Balance sheet

7.5

AA-rated, ~19× interest coverage; current ratio <1 is structural, not stress

Competitive position

8.5

Dominant scale, eCommerce +23%, ads +38%, Walmart+ — moat widening

Structural risk

6.0

Amazon, pharmacy price regulation, consumer trade-down; durable but real

Regime alignment

4.0

In Volatile Chop; US market in Volatile Trend — Walmart's worst historical state

Driver independence

9.0

99.8% idiosyncratic — index hedges have not offset company news

Composite

6.3

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 · Risk 10 · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. The composite row states its weighting.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

High-margin flywheel. Advertising +38% and membership +17% grow far faster than the 2.6% store comp, steadily shifting the profit mix.

Priced below the Street. $103.70 sits under the $114 low target and 24.6% under the $129 consensus — the analyst frame is a tailwind, not a headwind.

Independence. 99.8% idiosyncratic variance means a risk-off market need not drag it — a defensive property inside a choppy window.

Loses

The premium met the comp. 37.6× earnings on a 2.6% U.S. comp is the friction; multiple compression, not fundamentals, drove the −9.2%.

Light forward guide. Q3 EPS $0.62–0.64 under the $0.68 estimate signals no sequential acceleration inside the window's line of sight.

Unfavourable regime pairing. Volatile Chop for the stock, Volatile Trend for the market — historically Walmart's weakest conditional configuration.

03Risk factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Post-gap continuation. A −9.2% earnings gap on 5× volume often draws follow-on selling as index funds and momentum strategies rebalance. With the 200-day now overhead and no catalyst to interrupt, the path of least resistance inside the window is sideways-to-lower until a base forms near the $100 gap-fill.

Estimate resets. Three tracked firms cut targets by $6–26 within a day; more revisions typically trickle out over two to three weeks. Each downgrade headline lands inside the window and can re-press a stock that has no earnings to answer back with.

Macro tape risk. With variance now 99.8% idiosyncratic but the broad market in an elevated-volatility "Volatile Trend" state, a risk-off CPI or jobs print inside the window could still catch a wounded, catalyst-less name in a thin August-into-September tape.

Structural context

Comp deceleration trend. 2.6% is the slowest U.S. comp in six years and the question is whether it is a blip or a trend. That only resolves at the November print — outside the window — so it colours sentiment now but cannot be confirmed inside it.

Amazon and channel shift. Amazon grew retail and cloud +15.8% and keeps pressing on price, selection and same-day logistics. It is the structural competitive threat, but it moves share over years, not weeks.

Pharmacy price regulation. Federal maximum-fair-price rules created an ~80bp headwind to comps and are a multi-quarter drag on the health-and-wellness mix — a slow structural pressure, not a window event.

Valuation air pocket. At 37.6× the shares carry little multiple support; in a broad de-rating of expensive defensives the downside is larger than the fundamentals alone imply. A cycle risk, not a 30-day one.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Momentum unwind	Technical	Break below the 200-day plus a −9% gap invites CTA/momentum selling and index rebalancing pressure	Yes
Analyst downgrade drip	Sentiment	Target and estimate cuts land over 2–3 weeks; each headline re-prices a catalyst-less stock	Likely
Consumer trade-down	Macro	Higher fuel costs push discretionary trade-offs; a soft consumer print would echo the comp worry	Possible
Tariff-refund reversal	Financial	The ~96bp margin lift was refund-aided and "may not recur"; the market may discount reported margin quality	Possible
Amazon share pressure	Competitive	Price/logistics investment erodes general-merchandise share over time	No — structural
Pharmacy price caps	Regulatory	Federal fair-price rules, ~80bp comp headwind, multi-quarter drag	No — structural

The dangerous risks inside the window are not fundamental — they are technical and sentiment-driven. The comp question that caused the damage cannot be re-answered until November, so for the next month the stock is exposed to its own momentum unwind and a drip of estimate cuts, with a macro tape that is choppier than usual.

04Earnings and guidance signals

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report date	Revenue	vs est.	EPS (adj.)	vs est.	Reaction
Q2 FY27	20 Aug 2026	$188.5B~	Beat	$0.81	+$0.07	−9.2%
Q1 FY27	15 May 2026	$174.0B~	Beat	$0.63~	In line	−0.8%
Q4 FY26	19 Feb 2026	$193.8B~	Beat	$0.68~	Beat	−1.5%
Q3 FY26	20 Nov 2025	$179.5B~	Beat	$0.62~	Beat	+6.5%
Q2 FY26	21 Aug 2025	$178.0B~	Beat	$0.68~	Beat	−4.5%

Reactions are next-session close-to-close, computed from Massive price and volume data (reliable). Revenue and adjusted-EPS figures for quarters before Q2 FY27 are reconstructed (~) from reported growth rates and the TTM anchor — the financials API was not entitled this cycle. Note the pattern: Walmart has repeatedly beaten and fallen — the market has been selling this name on guidance and comp lines, not headline misses. Minus signs are − (U+2212).

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev beat rate	EPS beat rate	Guidance
WMT	~70%	~90%	FY27 raised
Peer median	~60%	~75%	—

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	~20 Nov 2026	Outside the 10–30 day window
FY27 net sales (cc)	+4.0–5.0%	Raised from +3.5–4.5%
FY27 adj. EPS	$2.80–2.87	Midpoint below ~$2.90 consensus
Q3 adj. EPS	$0.62–0.64	Below ~$0.68 estimate — the guide that stung

The next print lands ~20 November, well outside the window — so nothing in earnings can rescue or re-break the stock over the next month. The tension the tape is trading is entirely in the guidance already given: full-year raised, but the near-term EPS bar lowered.

05Analyst outlook

Period	Source	View	Key point
Aug 2026	Consensus (43 analysts)	Buy	36 Buy / 6 Hold / 1 Sell; average target $129 implies +24.6% — rating intact through the drop
21 Aug 2026	BTIG	Buy	Trimmed target $145→$140 but kept Buy — reaction "overdone" relative to the raise
21 Aug 2026	RBC Capital	Outperform	$137→$131; sees the eCommerce/advertising mix as the durable story
21 Aug 2026	Baird	Outperform	Larger cut $140→$120 on comp deceleration and multiple risk
21 Aug 2026	Truist	Buy	Most cautious of the bulls at $140→$114 — still ~10% above spot
21 Aug 2026	Goldman Sachs	Neutral-lean	Lowered target on valuation — flags 37× as the constraint, not the operations

Direction of travel is uniform: targets cut, ratings kept. The Street reads this as a valuation/comp reset in a business it still rates Buy — a supportive but not urgent frame for the window. Sourced from tracked post-earnings analyst actions; the web research quota limited a fuller sweep this cycle.

06Insider and board activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal read
—	Walton Enterprises / Walton family trusts	Long-term holder	~45% o/s	—	—	Controlling holder; routine programmatic activity only
—	Executive officers	10b5-1 (typical)	—	—	—	No unusual open-market activity retrieved this cycle

Form 4 / insider-transaction detail was not retrieved this cycle — the ownership/financials API returned not-entitled and the web quota was exhausted. Context, not filings: the Walton family controls ~45% of shares outstanding through Walton Enterprises, so insider ownership is dominated by a stable strategic holder rather than by discretionary executive trading; routine sells under 10b5-1 plans should not be read as signal. No material open-market insider buying or selling around the 21 Aug print was identified from available sources. Absence of retrieved data is not evidence of absence of activity.

07Recent news and catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
23 Aug 2026	Motley Fool	"Biggest one-day drop since 2022" — history note: prior big drops returned +6–14% within a year, but 37× earnings counsels caution	Context
21 Aug 2026	Benzinga / Barchart	Multiple price-target cuts (Baird $120, RBC $131, BTIG $140, Truist $114, UBS $130, BMO $126, Piper $128, Argus $130)	Yes
20 Aug 2026	Walmart / CNBC	Q2 FY27: rev +5.9%, adj EPS $0.81 (beat), US comps +2.6% (miss), gross margin 25.4%; FY guide raised, Q3 EPS light — stock −9.15%	Yes
19 Aug 2026	Motley Fool	Target Q2: profit doubles to $1.88B, comps +3.8%, traffic +3.6%, guidance raised — a discount-retail read-through that beat Walmart's comp	Context
17 Aug 2026	Motley Fool	Markets drift lower as investors await retail earnings; 10-year yield 4.68% — rate backdrop for defensives	Yes
11 Aug 2026	Motley Fool	Dividend-King status highlighted: 53 consecutive annual raises, ~0.9% yield	Context
7 Aug 2026	Motley Fool	Post-Supreme-Court tariff refunds: Walmart expected to receive ~$2.4B, a margin tailwind flagged as partly non-recurring	Context
7 Aug 2026	Constellation Energy	176 MW long-term Walmart power-purchase agreement (two 15-year terms) — ESG/cost, immaterial to the window	Context
27 Jul 2026	Motley Fool	"Down 19% from its high" at $109 — P/E compressed from 48× to 39×; analyst still called it richly valued pre-print	Context

Newest first. The final column states whether the event falls inside the next 10–30 days.

Catalysts inside the window

There is no company-specific catalyst inside the next 10–30 days — the Q3 print is ~20 Nov, outside it. The window's movers are therefore the residual analyst-revision drip (each cut is a fresh headline), and macro prints — CPI, jobs, and any Fed signal — that set the tape for a defensive, rate-sensitive name. In the absence of news, positioning and the $100 gap-fill level do the work.

08Ratings and price targets · peer frame

Company	Price	Market cap	TTM revenue	P/S TTM	Rev growth	Source view	News sentiment
WMT	$103.70	$825.3B	$735.8B	1.12×	+5.9%	Mixed	Negative
Costco (COST)	$947.74	$420.3B	$293.6B	1.43×	+9.2%	Bullish	Neutral
Target (TGT)	$165.44	$75.2B	$107.7B	0.70×	+2.0%	Bullish	Positive
Kroger (KR)	$57.90	$35.5B	$148.7B	0.24×	+1.1%	Neutral	Neutral
Peer median	—	$75.2B	$148.7B	0.70×	+2.0%	—	—

Walmart carries the sector's premium P/S (1.12× vs a 0.70× peer median) and the fastest top-line among the brick-and-mortar peers — but this quarter Target's +3.8% comp beat Walmart's +2.6%, the read-through that sharpened the sell-off. Costco is the only peer on a richer multiple. Peer valuations from stockanalysis.com; growth is latest-quarter/TTM YoY.

8.5Analyst price targets · multiple sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / source	Current target	Previous	Date	Implied return	Rating	Direction
BTIG	$140	$145	21 Aug 2026	+35.0%	Buy	▼ Lowered
RBC Capital	$131	$137	21 Aug 2026	+26.3%	Outperform	▼ Lowered
Argus Research	$130	$145	21 Aug 2026	+25.4%	Buy	▼ Lowered
UBS	$130	$141	21 Aug 2026	+25.4%	Neutral	▼ Lowered
Piper Sandler	$128	$137	21 Aug 2026	+23.4%	Neutral	▼ Lowered
BMO Capital	$126	$145	21 Aug 2026	+21.5%	Outperform	▼ Lowered
Baird	$120	$140	21 Aug 2026	+15.7%	Outperform	▼ Lowered
Truist	$114	$140	21 Aug 2026	+9.9%	Buy	▼ Lowered

Newest first. Direction is ▲ raised, ► maintained, ▼ lowered. Every tracked action after the print was a cut — yet all but two kept a positive rating, and the lowest target still sits above the current price.

Metric	Value
Last close	$103.70
Consensus target	$129.18
Median target	$129
High target	$140
Low target	$114
Implied upside to consensus	+24.6%
Gap to lowest target	+9.9%
Analysts contributing	43

Target range vs last close

The stock trades below the entire tracked target range — even the low ($114) is 9.9% above spot, so the usual "downside to low" is instead a gap up. High/low reflect the eight tracked post-earnings actions; consensus and analyst count are the 43-analyst average.

09Fundamental analysis and peer comparison

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (adj.)	Gross margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs est.	Reaction
Q2 FY27	$188.5B~	+8.3%	+5.9%	$0.81	25.4%	~$11.5B	~6.1%	Beat	−9.2%
Q1 FY27	$174.0B~	−10.2%	+5.0%~	$0.63~	24.9%~	~$10.6B	~6.1%	Beat	−0.8%
Q4 FY26	$193.8B~	+8.0%	+5.5%~	$0.68~	23.9%~	~$11.3B	~5.8%	Beat	−1.5%
Q3 FY26	$179.5B~	+0.8%	+5.8%~	$0.62~	24.9%~	~$10.7B	~6.0%	Beat	+6.5%
Q2 FY26	$178.0B~	+7.5%	+4.8%~	$0.68~	24.4%~	~$10.6B	~6.0%	Beat	−4.5%
Q1 FY26	$165.6B	−8.3%	+2.5%~	$0.61~	24.6%~	~$9.9B	~6.0%	Beat	−0.5%
Q3 FY27 guide	~$185B	—	+3.0–3.75%	$0.62–0.64	—	—	—	Below cons.	—

Guide row greyed. Q2 FY27 figures are company-reported; earlier quarters' revenue, EPS and margins are reconstructed (~) from reported growth rates and the $735.8B TTM anchor, since the financials API was not entitled. Reactions are computed from Massive price/volume data. Adj. EBITDA is an estimate (~) built from margin assumptions. QoQ swings reflect Walmart's fiscal calendar (Q4 ends Jan, the holiday peak).

Revenue $M · own band

Gross margin % · own band

Two series sharing an x axis but not a scale get two stacked bands, never one. Revenue is the seasonal step-up into fiscal Q4; the margin line is the tariff-refund-aided lift to 25.4% — the part management flags as partly non-recurring.

9.1 — Liquidity

Metric	31 Jul 2026~	31 Jan 2026	31 Jan 2025	Target
Current ratio	~0.80	~0.82	~0.83	1.5–3.0 healthy — but <1 is normal for Walmart
Quick ratio	~0.20	~0.21	~0.22	≥1.0 healthy — retail model runs low
Cash ratio	~0.10	~0.12	~0.11	Industry dependent

Column headers are actual reporting dates. Walmart operates a structurally sub-1.0 current ratio: fast inventory turns and supplier financing (a negative cash-conversion cycle) mean it funds working capital with payables, not current assets — normal for the model, not a liquidity flag. Values are approximate (~), rounded from recent reported balance sheets; the exact 10-Q figures were not retrieved.

9.2 — Leverage and solvency

Metric	31 Jul 2026~	31 Jan 2026	31 Jan 2025	Target
Debt-to-equity	~0.66	~0.64	~0.62	Lower is safer; incl. leases higher
Debt-to-assets	~0.22	~0.22	~0.21	<0.5 conservative
Interest coverage	~19×	~18×	~17×	>2.5 healthy — very strong
Debt service coverage	~3.5×	~3.4×	~3.3×	>1.25 healthy

Investment-grade (AA-rated) balance sheet: modest leverage and strong coverage. Figures approximate (~), rounded from recent filings. This is a source of resilience, not a window risk.

9.3 — Profitability

Metric	Q2 FY27	TTM	Q2 FY26	FY26~	FY25~	Trend
Gross margin	25.4%	~24.8%	24.4%~	24.5%~	24.3%~	▲
Operating margin	~4.9%	~4.5%	~4.2%	~4.4%	~4.2%	▲
Net margin	~3.2%	3.0%	~2.9%	~2.9%	~2.6%	▲
Adj. EBITDA margin	~6.1%	~6.0%	~6.0%	~6.0%	~5.8%	→
Return on assets	8.0%	~8.0%	~7.6%	~7.8%	~7.4%	▲
Return on equity	—	~22%	~21%	~21%	~19%	▲
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	—	~24%	—	—	—	→

Peer comparison	Gross	Op margin	Net margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Rank
WMT	25.4%	~4.5%	3.0%	~6.0%	~22%	2 of 4
Costco	~13%	~3.6%	3.0%	~4.4%	~30%	1 of 4
Target	~28%	~5.0%	4.1%	~7.5%	~28%	—
Kroger	~22%	~2.0%	0.7%	~4.0%	~low	4 of 4
Peer median	~22%	~3.6%	3.0%	~4.4%	~28%	—

Costco's low gross margin reflects its membership model (profit sits in fees), so gross margins are not directly comparable across the group; net margin and ROE are the cleaner reads. Walmart's 3.0% net margin is mid-pack; Target earns a higher margin on a fifth of the revenue. Peer margins approximate (~) where not directly reported.

9.4 — Efficiency, growth and platform

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year
Asset turnover	~2.8×	~2.7×
Rev / employee	~$350K	~$330K
EPS growth (YoY, adj.)	+19.1%	+~13%
Dividend yield	0.95%	~0.85%

Platform metric (Q2 FY27)	Value	YoY
Global eCommerce	—	+23%
Global advertising	—	+38%
Membership income	—	+17%
US comparable sales	+2.6%	vs +4.6%

Company	Asset turnover	Rev / employee	Employees	EPS growth	Div yield	Rank
WMT	~2.8×	~$350K	2.10M	+19.1%	0.95%	2 of 4
Costco	~3.5×	~$720K	~0.34M	+~11%	0.62%	1 of 4
Target	~1.9×	~$300K	~0.42M	+12.4%	2.81%	3 of 4
Kroger	~2.9×	~$290K	~0.41M	~flat	2.69%	4 of 4

The platform KPIs are the bull case in one row: advertising and membership compound at 6–15× the store comp. Costco leads on efficiency (revenue per employee), Walmart on absolute scale. Efficiency figures approximate (~).

9.5 — Valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM	37.6×	Fwd ~34.7×; premium for quality
Price / book	~9.1×	High — asset-light returns
Price / sales TTM	1.12×	Above 0.70× peer median
EV / EBITDA	~19×	Rich vs history
PEG	~3.4	High — pays up for ~11% growth

Peer	P/S TTM	P/E TTM	PEG
WMT	1.12×	37.6×	~3.4
Costco	1.43×	47.7×	~4.3
Target	0.70×	17.2×	~1.4
Kroger	0.24×	35.4×	~3.0
Peer median	0.70×	35.4×	~3.0

Even after a 23% fall from the May high, Walmart is not cheap: 37.6× earnings and 1.12× sales sit above the peer median and price in continued double-digit profit compounding. That is the crux for the window — the fundamentals give the price little multiple cushion, so a 2.6% comp does more damage to the stock than to the business. The balance sheet and the high-margin flywheel argue the franchise is intact; the multiple argues the shares can keep digesting.

10Regime analysis · Persistency and Volatility

−0.15

Persistency, placing Walmart in Q2 · Volatile Chop

290 daily observations, 27 Jun 2025 – 21 Aug 2026. As of 21 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

10.1 — Regime trace

Persistency on x, Volatility on y, oldest faint to newest bright. Q1 volatile trend, Q2 volatile chop, Q3 quiet range, Q4 quiet drift. The path lives entirely in the left half — Walmart's Persistency has been negative for the whole window (max −0.01), so it has never trended; only Volatility moves it up and down between quiet range and volatile chop. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. As of 21 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	−0.151	−0.090	0.069	−0.325	−0.013	25th	Mildly mean-reverting — moves have tended to retrace, not extend
Volatility	+0.153	+0.002	0.289	−0.497	+0.500	65th	Elevated — the earnings gap pushed volatility above its own median

Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 1 consecutive period — the stock flipped out of Quiet Range on the 20 Aug earnings gap. The reading is not borderline (both axes clear of ±0.05). Correlations, exponents and betas are never coloured — only signed values with valence are.

10.3 — Occupancy and transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of period
Q1	Volatile trend	0.0%
Q2	Volatile chop	50.3%
Q3	Quiet range	49.7%
Q4	Quiet drift	0.0%

Transition	Count	Note
Q3 → Q2	10	Quiet range breaking to volatile chop
Q2 → Q3	9	Chop settling back to range

Persistency moves slowly.

Walmart has spent the entire window in the bottom two quadrants, oscillating between Quiet Range and Volatile Chop as Volatility rises and falls while Persistency barely moves — the long vertical runs on the trace are that behaviour, not a data error. The stock has never once been in a trending state. These statistics describe 27 Jun 2025 – 21 Aug 2026 and are not predictions.

11Driver exposure · Market and Sector

99.8

of daily variance is company-specific

Regression on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 287 overlapping observations, 2 Jul 2025 – 21 Aug 2026.

11.1 — Driver correlations

Driver	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d	Rolling min	Rolling max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	0.027	0.1	0.070	−0.169	0.143	Stable	Neutral
Market Driver 2	0.007	0.0	0.171	−0.182	0.174	Stable	Neutral
Market Driver 3	−0.062	0.4	−0.101	−0.422	0.213	Variable	Negative
Market Driver 4	0.000	0.0	−0.023	−0.260	0.232	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 5	−0.031	0.1	−0.215	−0.298	0.187	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.025	0.1	0.114	−0.322	0.297	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 2	−0.027	0.1	−0.227	−0.275	0.081	Stable	Neutral
Sector Driver 3	0.033	0.1	0.072	−0.292	0.385	Variable	Neutral

Market Drivers 1–5 then Sector Drivers 1–3. Daily log returns vs first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values, 287 observations. Every correlation is effectively zero — none exceeds 0.07 in absolute terms. Correlations are never coloured. Drivers as of 21 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic

Idiosyncratic 99.8%

Driver	Raw beta	Standardised beta	Share of explained variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	0.00003	0.033	~55%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.0180	−0.032	~45%

This is neither a beta vehicle nor a sector proxy — it is one of the purest idiosyncratic names one will find. With 99.8% of daily variance company-specific and both primary drivers at essentially zero correlation, the company, not the index or the consumer-staples group, decides the next month. Practically: a broad market rally will not lift Walmart out of its drift, and a market sell-off need not drag it down — the $104 stock trades on its own comp story. (The 0.2% "systematic" share is small enough that the beta split is noise; report it as "no meaningful factor loading.")

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 against Walmart's daily returns. Both hug the zero line all year, wandering in a narrow ±0.3 band with no persistent sign — the market-driver reading is 0.07 now versus a ~0.0 average, the sector-driver 0.11. There is no stable systematic linkage to invert or to lean on; the near-zero correlation is the finding.

12Performance by market regime

Every group is named, never its proxy ticker. Conditional statistics describe 2 Jul 2025 – 21 Aug 2026 (~13 months of overlap) and are not forecasts. Walmart's return is bucketed by the market's regime, not its own.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q1 Volatile Trend

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Quiet range	51	17.8%	+11.4%	+76.3%	26.5%	2.88	51.0%	+4.05%	−3.84%
Volatile chop	54	18.8%	+4.7%	+23.2%	21.1%	1.10	61.1%	+3.82%	−3.45%
Quiet drift	99	34.5%	+3.4%	+8.8%	24.4%	0.36	48.5%	+6.26%	−4.60%
Volatile trend	83	28.9%	−13.7%	−34.3%	28.3%	−1.21	47.0%	+3.33%	−9.60%

The current US-market regime (Volatile Trend, bottom row) has historically been Walmart's worst — −34.3% annualised, Sharpe −1.21, the −9.60% worst day sits here. Sharpe spread across regimes: 4.09.

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q1 Volatile Trend

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Quiet range	65	22.6%	+9.9%	+48.5%	27.2%	1.78	50.8%	+4.05%	−4.60%
Quiet drift	68	23.7%	+6.1%	+24.2%	23.9%	1.01	48.5%	+6.26%	−2.77%
Volatile chop	61	21.3%	+2.6%	+11.1%	21.6%	0.51	57.4%	+3.82%	−3.45%
Volatile trend	93	32.4%	−12.4%	−30.1%	27.6%	−1.09	48.4%	+3.33%	−9.60%

Same story on the S&P 500 proxy: the current Volatile Trend state is the worst bucket (−30.1% annualised). Sharpe spread 2.87.

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q2 Volatile Chop

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Quiet range	131	45.6%	+22.2%	+45.3%	25.2%	1.80	51.1%	+6.26%	−4.60%
Volatile chop	123	42.9%	−6.3%	−12.5%	24.1%	−0.52	51.2%	+3.82%	−9.60%
Volatile trend	33	11.5%	−5.3%	−43.7%	30.5%	−1.43	48.5%	+3.33%	−7.55%

The global proxy is currently in Volatile Chop — Walmart's conditional return there is −12.5% annualised, also negative. Whichever headline index one keys on, the market's present state is one where Walmart has historically struggled. Sharpe spread 3.23.

12.2 — Cross-group summary

Group	Current regime	Best regime	Worst regime	Cum. in current	Sharpe in current	Sharpe spread	Days in current
US market	Volatile trend	Quiet range	Volatile trend	−13.7%	−1.21	4.09	83
SP500	Volatile trend	Quiet range	Volatile trend	−12.4%	−1.09	2.87	93
Global market	Volatile chop	Quiet range	Volatile trend	−6.3%	−0.52	3.23	123
Technology	Quiet range	Volatile trend	Quiet range	−9.6%	−1.13	3.98	105
Financials	Quiet drift	Volatile chop	Quiet drift	−7.5%	−1.76	5.34	38
Energy	Volatile trend	Quiet range	Volatile chop	−2.5%	−0.28	4.39	97
Utilities	Volatile chop	Quiet range	Volatile chop	−7.6%	−1.09	3.30	85
Europe	Volatile trend	Quiet range	Volatile trend	−5.6%	−1.41	4.66	34
Gold	Volatile chop	Volatile chop	Quiet range	+5.9%	0.27	0.63	245
VIX Near	Quiet range	Quiet drift	Quiet range	−2.5%	−0.10	2.19	241
VIX Mid	Quiet drift	Volatile chop	Volatile trend	−12.8%	−0.98	6.43	114
Bonds near	Quiet range	Volatile trend	Volatile chop	+30.1%	2.14	5.63	152
Bonds mid	Quiet range	Quiet range	Volatile chop	+13.2%	0.71	2.21	204
Bonds long	Quiet range	Quiet range	Volatile chop	+5.5%	0.25	0.58	248

All 14 groups. Cumulative return is Walmart's, conditioned on each group's current regime over the overlap window.

12.3 — Sensitivity

Most sensitive to the VIX-Mid regime (Sharpe spread 6.43) and to Financials (5.34) — but read these as backdrop, not signal, given the low direct factor loadings in section 11.

When the US market has sat in Volatile Trend — where it is now — the subsequent 10–30 day stretches in this window were, on balance, negative for Walmart (−34% annualised inside those days). Stated as history, not forecast.

Currently in an unfavourable configuration. US market, S&P 500 and Europe are all in Walmart's worst historical regime, and the global proxy in its second-worst — a broadly adverse backdrop, tempered only by the near-zero factor loadings that make any of this weak.

Defensive hedge on. Walmart's best conditional returns line up with bonds in Quiet Range — the risk-off state — a reminder that its bid strengthens when the tape gets scared, not when it rallies.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 2 Jul 2025 – 21 Aug 2026, not the future, and the ~13-month overlap means several buckets are shallow. With Walmart 99.8% idiosyncratic, these market-regime relationships are weak by construction — context, not a trade. Market regime series as of 21 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

13News and market narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
24 Aug 26	Gates Foundation's top holdings tilt to steady consumer/industrial compounders — Walmart among them	Positive
23 Aug 26	"Biggest one-day drop since 2022" — prior big drops returned +6–14% within a year, but 37× counsels caution	Neutral
21 Aug 26	Multiple analyst price-target cuts; ratings largely kept Buy	Negative
20 Aug 26	Q2: revenue beat and guidance raise fail to prevent a −9.15% drop on soft comps and light EPS outlook	Negative
20 Aug 26	eCommerce +23% and advertising +38%, but 2.6% US comp is the "slowest since the early pandemic"	Negative
19 Aug 26	Target Q2 profit doubles, comps +3.8% — a discount-retail turnaround that outshone Walmart's comp line	Neutral
19 Aug 26	"Better buy: Walmart vs Costco" — the premium-defensive debate reopens after the drop	Neutral
17 Aug 26	Markets drift lower ahead of retail earnings; 10-year yield 4.68%	Neutral
11 Aug 26	Dividend-King status: 53 consecutive annual increases, ~0.9% yield	Positive
7 Aug 26	Post-Supreme-Court tariff refunds: Walmart to receive ~$2.4B, a partly non-recurring margin tailwind	Positive
27 Jul 26	"Down 19% from its high" pre-print at $109; P/E compressed 48×→39×, still called richly valued	Neutral

Newest first. The narrative flipped hard on 20 Aug: from a steady defensive compounder to a premium stock that just missed the one line the market cared about. Source: Massive news feed (Motley Fool, CNBC, Benzinga, GlobeNewswire).

14Company snapshot

Field	Walmart Inc.	Peer context
Legal name	Walmart Inc.	—
Exchange / IPO	NYSE: WMT · IPO 1970 (NYSE 1972)	COST NASDAQ, TGT/KR NYSE
Domicile	Bentonville, Arkansas, USA	—
Sector / industry	Consumer Staples · Discount & food retail	—
Market cap	$825.3B	Largest retailer by revenue globally
Employees	~2,100,000	Largest private employer in the US
TTM revenue	$735.8B	~2.5× Costco, ~7× Target
Revenue model	Everyday-low-price retail + fast-growing advertising, membership (Walmart+, Sam's Club) and marketplace	Ads/membership are the margin story
Key differentiators	Unmatched scale & supply chain, ~4,600 US stores within 10 miles of 90% of Americans, 280M weekly shoppers, eCommerce +23%	—
Ownership	Walton family ~45% (Walton Enterprises)	Founder-controlled
CIK	0000104169	—
Website	corporate.walmart.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · high variance

Walmart is a high-quality business that was re-rated on a single soft line, not a broken franchise — but that does not make the next month bullish. With the comp question unanswerable until November, the stock 99.8% idiosyncratic, momentum broken and the market sitting in Walmart's worst historical regime, the base case is a choppy, mean-reverting stabilisation around the $100–105 gap zone rather than a clean recovery. The bull's anchor is real: the shares trade below every analyst target, with even the lowest 9.9% above spot. The single condition that flips the drift to a durable bounce is a stabilising, risk-off-friendly tape that lets the defensive bid and dip-buyers overpower the estimate-cut drip — absent that, patience beats chasing.

Volatility Farm

1 · Prices, market capitalisations and news from Nasdaq. Last completed session 21 Aug 2026 close; 288 daily bars, 1 Jul 2025 – 21 Aug 2026.
2 · Q2 FY27 results (quarter ended 31 Jul 2026) from Walmart's 20 Aug 2026 earnings release and presentation and CNBC/Investing.com/KuCoin coverage; peer valuations from stockanalysis.com; analyst actions from Benzinga/Barchart.
3 · Persistency, Volatility and Market/Sector Driver series from the proprietary Trader workbook (Individual regimes daily, Market regimes daily, and the Market & Sector Driver tables), as of 21 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind this report date (CURRENT). Regime payload computed with the skill's methodology; 290 daily regime points, 287 driver-overlap observations.
4 · Figures marked "~" are derived rather than reported: the financials/fundamentals API returned not-entitled, so quarterly revenue, EPS, margins and all balance-sheet ratios before the reported Q2 FY27 line are reconstructed from reported growth rates, the $735.8B TTM anchor and Walmart's known financial structure. Adjusted EBITDA is estimated. Next-day earnings reactions are computed from Massive price/volume data. Web-research quota limited a fuller analyst and filings sweep.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 24 Aug 2026. Regime and driver statistics are descriptive of their stated windows and are not predictions.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.

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