SAIC beat, raised the guide, and spent the pop before lunch

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge.

SAIC did the two things bulls wanted — beat and raised — and the market handed the gains straight back, closing barely green after touching a record. That single session is the report: the fundamentals justify the stock at 12× earnings, but the tape says the good news is in the price, and with the next catalyst three months out there is little to force a resolution before then.

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. The composite row states its weighting.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

For the window the risks are almost entirely non-fundamental: a technical gap and a Washington deadline. The structural problems — flat organic growth, soft bookings, leverage — are real but slow, and none of them resolves before the December print. That asymmetry is why the near-term view is mixed rather than bearish: little can break the story in a month, and little can prove it either.

4.1 — Earnings history

“a” = adjusted diluted EPS (the figure consensus is set against); other EPS values are GAAP diluted. † Q4 FY26 numbers were pre-announced 11 Feb 2026 alongside a FY27 organic-decline warning — the market-moving event. Reaction = next-session close change from our price series; minus signs are − (U+2212). Colour marks the sign only.

The one thing this section makes clear: the earnings catalyst has already fired. With the next print in December, no guidance event lands inside the window — so the raise, and the market's decision to fade it, are the last hard data points the stock gets for three months.

Coverage is thin (11 analysts) and most individual actions predate the 31 Aug print; the consensus below is best read as a pre-release anchor likely to drift up.

Three insiders, three purchases, no open-market sales in the trailing period (Form 4 filings via public aggregators). The buys clustered near $100 in Dec 2025, ~22% below the current $128.22, and predate the run-up — a bullish tell that has already largely played out; no reported open-market activity around the Aug 2026 print. Governance note: Jim Reagan, interim CEO from Oct 2025 after Toni Townes-Whitley's departure, was made permanent CEO on 17 Feb 2026 — the leadership overhang is resolved.

Newest first. The final column marks whether the event falls inside the next 10–30 days.

Revenue growth is the latest reported quarter, year-over-year (SAIC Q2 FY27; CACI fiscal Q4; LDOS Q2; BAH fiscal Q4). SAIC carries the lowest price-to-sales of the group and the second-slowest growth — the discount is the market pricing the flat organic line, not a mispricing.

Recent analyst actions

Newest first. All actions predate the 31 Aug print, so these targets do not yet reflect the raise. Direction is ▲ raised, ► maintained, ▼ lowered.

The stock closed above the consensus and median target and only ~7% below the Street-high $137. Post-release revisions should lift the average, but as of the data date the price already discounts the raise.

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

EPS is GAAP diluted. Adj. EBITDA marked “e” is derived (operating income plus estimated D&A) — only Q2 FY26 and Q2 FY27 are reported. Reaction is the next-session close change; several prints moved the stock 7–16% either way — the earnings-day variance is the single most important risk statistic on this page. Guide row is the FY27 H2 implied from the raised full-year midpoint.

Revenue and margin sit on two stacked bands, never one. Revenue has round-tripped $1.75–1.98B for two years; the story is the flat top line, not the quarter-to-quarter noise.

9.1 — Liquidity

Column headers are actual reporting dates. Liquidity improved off the tight FY25 year-end but cash is modest; the business funds itself on receivables turnover and revolver access, normal for federal services.

9.2 — Leverage and solvency

Coverage metrics marked “e” are derived from operating income, ~$33M quarterly interest and free cash flow. Net debt of ~$2.36B is ~3.1× the FY27 adj. EBITDA guide — elevated but comfortably serviced by >$600M of guided free cash flow.

9.3 — Profitability

Peer figures marked “e” are estimated from reported net income, revenue and EBITDA; gross margins are not reported on a uniform basis. SAIC's EBITDA margin trails CACI and Leidos but its 26.5% ROE is high — a leverage-and-buyback effect, not superior operating returns.

9.4 — Efficiency, growth and platform

Revenue per employee is the lowest of the group; growth ranking runs CACI > Leidos ≈ SAIC > Booz Allen. Booz Allen carries the peer's only real dividend (3.1%); CACI pays none and reinvests.

9.5 — Valuation multiples

On sales SAIC is the cheapest name in the group and on forward earnings it is in line with Leidos and Booz Allen and far below CACI — so the valuation gives the stock room if sentiment turns. But the multiple is low for a reason: flat organic growth and a sub-1 book-to-bill. Over the next 10–30 days the cheapness cushions downside more than it powers upside — it takes a bookings signal, not another EPS beat, to re-rate, and none is scheduled before December.

10.1 — Regime trace

Persistency on x, Volatility on y, oldest faint to newest bright. Q1 volatile trend, Q2 volatile chop, Q3 quiet range, Q4 quiet drift. The path runs almost entirely along the top and bottom of the right half: Persistency has stayed positive throughout while Volatility swings — the vertical-run behaviour expected of a slow Persistency series. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. As of 31 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Currently in Q4 “quiet drift”, held 3 consecutive periods. Both readings sit within 0.05 of an axis, so the quadrant call is borderline and provisional — SAIC is effectively at the origin of the map. Correlations, exponents and betas are never coloured; only signed values with valence are.

10.3 — Occupancy and transitions

11.1 — Driver correlations

Market Drivers 1–5 then Sector Drivers 1–3. Daily log returns vs first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values, 499 observations. Every correlation is near zero and none is stable — there is no persistent factor link to trade. Correlations are never coloured. Drivers as of 31 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic

The systematic sliver is 0.6% (Market Driver 1 + Sector Driver 1); the bar's left edge is drawn slightly wide for legibility.

This is neither a beta vehicle nor a sector proxy — it is an almost purely idiosyncratic name. Over 99% of SAIC's daily variance is unexplained by the market and sector drivers, which means the company, not the index, decides the next month: contract awards, bookings and the post-earnings tape will move the stock, and a broad-market hedge would have done almost nothing to offset it.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 (solid) and Sector Driver 1 (dashed) against SAIC's daily returns. Both oscillate around zero across the whole window and cross repeatedly — the current readings (+0.04 and +0.10) are as uninformative as the average. No inversion or regime in the linkage; the independence is structural, not a passing phase.

SAIC's daily returns conditioned on each group's regime, 4 Sep 2024 – 31 Aug 2026 (499 sessions). Every group is named, never its proxy ticker. Conditional statistics describe the stated window and are not forecasts — and with 99% idiosyncratic variance, the conditioning is weak by construction.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q1 Volatile Trend

The US market is in Volatile Trend today — historically SAIC's best US-market bucket (+22.1% cumulative over 97 days, Sharpe 2.22). Read as description, not signal.

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q1 Volatile Trend

Same pattern as the broad market, sharper: SAIC's best days have clustered when the SP500 itself trends with volatility.

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q2 Volatile Chop

The global market sits in Volatile Chop, where SAIC's history is a modest +9.0% cumulative (Sharpe 0.30). The +307.7% annualised in the 33-day Volatile-Trend bucket is a small-sample artefact — the +20.2% cumulative is the honest figure.

12.2 — Cross-group summary

Cumulative return and Sharpe are SAIC's outcome while each group has been in its current regime, over the 499-session window. Coloured only where the sign carries valence.

12.3 — Sensitivity

Newest first. The narrative has swung from a February growth scare and a leadership vacuum to a settled CEO and two consecutive beat-and-raises — the stock has re-rated with it, which is precisely why the bar into the next quarter is now higher.