Close 18 Aug 2026
$337.49
Second-quarter sales rose 5.7% to $47.9bn on a 1.7% comp — Home Depot's firmest in years and better than every major peer — yet the stock closed flat on the print and sits 21% below its September high. With no earnings until November, the next 10–30 days are a macro trade: Jackson Hole, August CPI and the September FOMC set the tone, into a broad-market regime that has historically been Home Depot's weakest. The quarter earned the benefit of the doubt; the tape and the calendar withhold it.
| Dimension | Finding | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | −20.9% from the Sep-2025 high, −14.5% over 1yr, ~flat YTD; the beat faded from +1% intraday to −0.1% at the 18 Aug close. | Bearish |
| Revenue growth | +5.7% to $47.9bn on a +1.7% comp (US +1.3%) — the firmest comp in several years; SRS/GMS lift the top line. | Bullish |
| Profitability | Op margin 12.4% TTM is best-in-class, though Q2 GAAP margin slipped to 14.3% from 14.5% as SG&A (+8.5%) outran sales. | Bullish |
| Valuation vs peers | 23.6× earnings / 2.0× sales vs a peer median near 18× / 1.3× — a premium the recovery must justify. | Mixed |
| Platform KPIs | Comp +1.7% beat LOW (+0.2%), FND (−2.1%) and TSCO (−1.5%); ticket +2.8% to $92.50, though transactions −1.0%. | Bullish |
| Balance sheet | Net debt $60.5bn and D/E 3.8× after SRS/GMS, but interest cover ~8× and equity is rebuilding; 2.76% yield, 17-year raiser. | Mixed |
| Regime state | Own regime Q4 Quiet Drift (Persistency +0.06, Volatility −0.19, as of 18 Aug) — historically favourable to hold, but held 23 periods with trend character at its yearly low. | Neutral |
| Driver exposure | 82% of variance is company-specific; near-zero primary market-driver link (+0.04) and a moderate negative primary sector-driver loading (−0.40). | Neutral |
| Key risk in window | A rates trade: Jackson Hole and the 16 Sep FOMC land while the broad US market sits in "Volatile Trend" — historically HD's weakest backdrop (Sharpe −0.88). | Bearish |
| Catalysts in window | No earnings until 17 Nov; the window's movers are macro — Jackson Hole 27–29 Aug, Aug CPI ~11 Sep, FOMC 16 Sep. | Mixed |
| Overall view (10–30 days) | Mixed · high variance — a best-in-class quarter caps the downside; a faded reaction, a premium multiple and an adverse market regime cap the upside. Mixed | |
Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge.
Home Depot did the hard part — it out-comped the whole sector and reaffirmed the year — and was met with a flat tape. That is the report in one line: the fundamentals improved and the price did not, because the next month has no company catalyst and a macro calendar that can cut either way. Own the quarter; respect the range.
Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.
Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. The composite row states its weighting.
Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.
| Risk | Category | Mechanism | Bites in window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate / FOMC surprise | Macro | Hawkish Jackson Hole or 16 Sep FOMC lifts mortgage rates, deepening the demand freeze and de-rating housing-linked names. | Yes |
| Adverse market regime | Macro | Broad US market in "Volatile Trend," HD's weakest conditional regime (Sharpe −0.88). | Active |
| Support break | Technical | Loss of the ~$330 shelf with no earnings catalyst opens the $289 May low. | Possible |
| Housing turnover | Structural | Depressed existing-home sales defer big-ticket remodel demand. | Context |
| Leverage / integration | Financial | $62.6bn debt and SRS/GMS integration; multi-year, well-covered. | Context |
The company-specific risks are mostly structural and slow. What can actually move the stock inside a month is macro — the rate path — arriving while the market regime already leans against it. The window's risk is therefore largely out of Home Depot's hands.
| Quarter | Report date | Revenue | vs est. | EPS (dil.) | vs est. | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY26 | 18 Aug 2026 | $47.86B | +1.3% | $4.79 | +4.0% | −0.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | 19 May 2026 | $41.77B | Beat | $3.30 | Beat | +0.9% |
| Q4 FY25 | 24 Feb 2026 | $38.20B | Miss | $2.59 | Beat | +2.0% |
| Q3 FY25 | 18 Nov 2025 | $41.35B | In-line | $3.62 | In-line | −6.0% |
| Q2 FY25 | 19 Aug 2025 | $45.28B | Beat | $4.58 | Beat | +3.2% |
"vs est." shown as reported percentage for Q2 FY26 (adjusted EPS $4.92 vs $4.73); Beat/Miss/In-line elsewhere. Reaction is report-day close vs prior close. Q3 FY25's −6.0% was a guidance/commentary reaction, not an EPS miss. Minus signs are − (U+2212).
| Company | Rev beat rate | EPS beat rate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| HD | ~65% | ~85% | FY26 reaffirmed |
| Peer median | ~60% | ~75% | — |
Beat rates are approximate, from the trailing ~12-quarter sample.
| Item | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Next report date | 17 Nov 2026 | Outside the 10–30 day window (~90 days out) |
| Guided comp sales | 0% to +2% | FY2026, reaffirmed |
| Guided total sales | +2.5–4.5% | Includes ~15 new stores |
| Guided adj. EPS | 0% to +4% | vs FY2025 $14.69 |
| Guided adj. op margin | 12.8–13.0% | Gross margin ~33.1% |
The most important guidance fact for the window is a date: the next print is three months away. With guidance reaffirmed rather than raised, there is no fundamental event inside the next month — the stock trades the macro tape until November.
| Period | Source | View | Key point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | Jefferies | Bullish | Q2 exceeded on comps and margin; share gains despite "frozen" housing. Buy, PT to $398. |
| Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Bullish | Overweight, PT $400 on platform strength and residential-investment share. |
| Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Bullish | "Strongest comparable-sales performance in several years." Buy, $377. |
| Aug 2026 | Stifel | Neutral | Hold, PT $340; needs a category inflection and sentiment shift to re-rate toward peers. |
| Aug 2026 | RBC Capital | Neutral | Sector Perform, $343; balanced risk/reward at current levels. |
| 2026 | Consensus (36 analysts) | Bullish | Buy; average target $376 (+11.5%), split 21 buy / 15 hold / 0 sell. |
Post-print reaction skews positive on the fundamentals; the debate is valuation and timing, not the quarter. Sourced from published analyst notes, Aug 2026.
| Date | Insider | Transaction | Shares | Price | Value | Signal read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (recent) | Independent directors | Deferred stock units (grant) | — | — | — | Routine board compensation — neutral |
| 2026 (recent) | Named executives | Option / RSU grants & vesting | — | — | — | Scheduled equity comp — neutral |
| 2026 (recent) | Officers | 10b5-1 dispositions | — | — | — | Pre-planned sales — low signal |
No material open-market purchases or discretionary sales surfaced in recent Form 4 filings; activity is routine equity compensation (director deferred units, executive grants and pre-planned 10b5-1 dispositions), a neutral read for the window. Share/price/value withheld where individual filings were not confirmed line-by-line. Source: SEC Form 4 filings (via StockTitan / secform4).
| Date | Source | Development | In window? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Federal Reserve | September FOMC rate decision — the window's marquee macro event for a rate-sensitive name. | Yes |
| 11 Sep 2026 | BLS | August CPI — inflation print that shapes rate-cut odds. | Yes |
| 27–29 Aug 2026 | Federal Reserve | Jackson Hole symposium; policy tone feeds directly into mortgage-rate and housing sentiment. | Yes |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Investing / analysts | "Home Depot's worst may be over," analysts say as the housing downturn shows signs of easing; Jefferies → $398. | No |
| 18 Aug 2026 | PR Newswire | Q2 beat: revenue $47.9bn (+5.7%), comp +1.7%, adj EPS $4.92; FY2026 guidance reaffirmed. | No |
| 18 Aug 2026 | Market | Shares fade from a +1% intraday pop to close roughly flat. | No |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Stifel | Price target raised to $340 (Hold) on Home Depot's relative platform strength. | No |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Motley Fool | Berkshire's $6.8bn Taylor Morrison (homebuilder) acquisition read as a bullish housing signal. | No |
| 22 Jun 2026 | Motley Fool | HD and Lowe's fell after the Fed held rates steady — the stock's rate sensitivity in one tape. | No |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Benzinga | Medline distribution-center fire flagged as a near-term supply headwind. | No |
Newest first. The final column states whether the event falls inside the next 10–30 days.
There is no Home Depot earnings event before 17 November, so the window is macro. Jackson Hole (27–29 Aug) sets the policy tone; August CPI (~11 Sep) moves rate-cut odds; and the September FOMC (16 Sep) is the decision itself — each acts on mortgage rates and housing sentiment, the levers that price Home Depot. Lowe's earnings (19 Aug) and mid-September housing data provide sector read-through.
| Company | Price | Market cap | TTM revenue | P/S TTM | Rev growth | Source view | News sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | $337.49 | $336.5B | $169.2B | 2.0× | +5.7% | Buy | Cautiously positive |
| Lowe's (LOW) | $215.64 | $120.9B | $88.4B | 1.4× | +6.2% | Buy | Positive (valuation) |
| Floor & Decor (FND) | $56.05 | $6.0B | $4.7B | 1.3× | +3.0% | Hold | Mixed |
| Tractor Supply (TSCO) | $34.72 | $18.1B | $15.8B | 1.1× | +2.0% | Hold | Mixed |
| Peer median | — | $18.1B | $15.8B | 1.3× | +3.0% | — | — |
Prices at 18 Aug 2026 close. Revenue growth is the latest reported quarter's total sales YoY (HD +5.7%; peer figures blend comps and store/acquisition growth). HD carries the premium P/S but also the best comp and margins of the group.
| Analyst / source | Current target | Previous | Date | Implied return | Rating | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies (Matuszewski) | $398 | $360 | 19 Aug 2026 | +17.9% | Buy | ▲ Raised |
| DA Davidson (Baker) | $377 | $377 | 19 Aug 2026 | +11.7% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Stifel | $340 | $320 | 17 Aug 2026 | +0.7% | Hold | ▲ Raised |
| RBC Capital (Shemesh) | $343 | $340 | 12 Aug 2026 | +1.6% | Sector Perform | ▲ Raised |
| Wells Fargo (Fadem) | $400 | $360 | 11 Aug 2026 | +18.5% | Overweight | ▲ Raised |
| Guggenheim (Forbes) | $425 | $425 | 20 Jul 2026 | +25.9% | Buy | ► Maintained |
| Piper Sandler (Keith) | $378 | $421 | 20 May 2026 | +12.0% | Overweight | ▼ Lowered |
Newest first. Direction is ▲ raised, ► maintained, ▼ lowered. Implied return vs the $337.49 close.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | $337.49 |
| Consensus target | $376.38 |
| Median target | $379.00 |
| High target | $430.00 |
| Low target | $310.00 |
| Implied upside to consensus | +11.5% |
| Implied downside to low | −8.1% |
| Analysts contributing | 36 |
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ Δ | YoY Δ | EPS (dil.) | Gross margin | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | vs est. | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY24 | $40.22B | — | +6.6% | $3.67 | 33.4% | ~$6.3B | ~15.7% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY24 | $39.70B | −1.3% | +14.1% | $3.02 | 32.8% | ~$5.4B | ~13.6% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY25 | $39.86B | +0.4% | +9.4% | $3.45 | 33.8% | ~$6.0B | ~15.1% | Beat | — |
| Q2 FY25 | $45.28B | +13.6% | +4.9% | $4.58 | 33.4% | ~$7.5B | ~16.6% | Beat | +3.2% |
| Q3 FY25 | $41.35B | −8.7% | +2.8% | $3.62 | 33.4% | ~$6.3B | ~15.1% | In-line | −6.0% |
| Q4 FY25 | $38.20B | −7.6% | −3.8% | $2.59 | 32.6% | ~$4.7B | ~12.4% | Rev miss | +2.0% |
| Q1 FY26 | $41.77B | +9.3% | +4.8% | $3.30 | 33.0% | ~$5.9B | ~14.2% | Beat | +0.9% |
| Q2 FY26 | $47.86B | +14.6% | +5.7% | $4.79 | 33.7% | ~$7.8B | ~16.3% | Beat | −0.1% |
| Q3 FY26 guide | ~$44.1B | — | ~+6.5% | ~$4.08 | ~33% | — | — | Cons. | — |
Adj. EBITDA is estimated (operating income plus ~$0.9bn quarterly D&A) and marked "~". Q3 FY26 is the current consensus, greyed. Reactions before Aug 2025 predate the price sample and are shown "—".
Two series sharing an x axis but not a scale get two stacked bands, never one.
| Metric | 2 Aug 2026 | 3 May 2026 | 1 Feb 2026 | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.5–3.0 healthy (thin, typical big-box retail) |
| Quick ratio | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.26 | ≥1.0 healthy; inventory-heavy model |
| Cash ratio | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.04 | Runs lean; funded by cash flow |
Column headers are actual reporting dates. Ratios computed from reported balance-sheet items.
| Peer comparison (most recent) | Current ratio | Net cash position | Liquidity status |
|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 1.08 | Net debt ~$60.5B | Adequate — cash-flow funded |
| Peer median (~) | ~1.4 | Net debt | Adequate |
| Metric | 2 Aug 2026 | 3 May 2026 | 1 Feb 2026 | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | 3.76 | 4.59 | 5.14 | Elevated but improving as equity rebuilds |
| Debt-to-assets | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.63 | <0.5 conservative |
| Interest coverage | ~8.4× | ~8× | ~7× | >2.5 healthy (est.) |
| Debt service coverage | ~2.5× | — | — | >1.25 healthy (est.) |
Interest and debt-service coverage are estimated from TTM operating income and ~$2.5bn interest expense, marked "~".
| Metric | Q2 FY26 | TTM | Q2 FY25 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 33.7% | 33.2% | 33.4% | 33.4% | 33.5% | → |
| Operating margin | 14.3% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 14.2% | ▼ |
| Net margin | 10.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | ▼ |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | ~16.3% | ~14.6% | ~16.6% | ~15.5% | ~16.3% | ▼ |
| Return on assets | — | 13.0% | — | 13.5% | 15.6% | ▼ |
| Return on equity | — | ~86% | — | ~95% | n/m | → |
| DuPont (NPM × AT × EM) | — | ~86% | — | — | — | → |
| Peer comparison | Gross | Op margin | Net margin | Adj. EBITDA | ROE | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 33.2% | 12.4% | 8.4% | ~14.6% | ~86% | 1 of 4 |
| Lowe's | ~33.0% | ~12.5% | 7.5% | ~14% | n/m | 2 of 4 |
| Floor & Decor | ~43.5% | ~6.5% | 4.8% | ~13% | ~7% | 4 of 4 |
| Tractor Supply | ~36.5% | ~9.8% | 6.4% | ~11.5% | ~35% | 3 of 4 |
| Peer median | ~36.5% | ~9.8% | 6.4% | ~13% | ~21% | — |
HD net margins are reported; peer gross/operating/EBITDA margins are approximate (net margins derived from reported EPS × shares ÷ revenue), marked "~". Lowe's ROE is n/m on negative book equity from buybacks.
| Metric | Current / TTM | Prior year |
|---|---|---|
| Asset turnover | 1.55 | ~1.62 |
| EPS growth (YoY) | −4.4% | +2% |
| Dividend yield | 2.76% | ~2.4% |
| Platform metric (Q2 FY26) | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable sales | +1.7% | from +1.0% |
| Customer transactions | 443.2M | −0.8% |
| Average ticket | $92.50 | +2.8% |
| Company | Asset turnover | Rev / employee | Employees | EPS growth | Div yield | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 1.55 | $358K | 472,400 | −4.4% | 2.76% | 2 of 4 |
| Lowe's | 1.76 | $320K | 276,000 | −2.2% | 2.32% | 1 of 4 |
| Peer median | ~1.6 | ~$330K | — | −2.2% | 2.55% | — |
| Metric | Current | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 23.6× | Below HD's multi-year average |
| Price / book | ~20× | Elevated on a thin, buyback-shrunk equity base |
| Price / sales TTM | 2.0× | Premium to peer median ~1.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | ~16.1× | Premium; D&A estimated |
| PEG | n/m | Near-flat forward EPS growth |
| Peer | P/S TTM | P/E TTM | PEG |
|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 2.0× | 23.6× | n/m |
| Lowe's | 1.4× | 18.2× | 3.2 |
| Floor & Decor | 1.3× | 26.2× | ~2.5 |
| Tractor Supply | 1.1× | 18.1× | ~3.0 |
| Peer median | 1.3× | 18.2× | 3.0 |
The premium is earned — Home Depot has the best comp, the best margins and the strongest franchise in the group — but at 23.6× earnings and 2.0× sales against a peer median near 18× and 1.3×, the recovery is already in the price. That leaves little room for multiple expansion inside a month, and more room to compress if the macro disappoints.
Persistency on x, Volatility on y, oldest faint to newest bright. Q1 volatile trend, Q2 volatile chop, Q3 quiet range, Q4 quiet drift. Persistency has stayed positive throughout the window, so only Q1 and Q4 are occupied. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. As of 18 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.
| Measure | Current | Mean | Std dev | Min | Max | Percentile | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistency | 0.059 | 0.101 | 0.041 | 0.003 | 0.205 | 7 | Random / Neutral — mildly trending, but at the low end of its own year |
| Volatility | −0.191 | 0.002 | 0.289 | −0.497 | 0.500 | 31 | Subdued Vol — below its median, a calm tape |
Currently in Q4 Quiet Drift, held 23 consecutive periods. The reading is not borderline (Persistency 0.06 sits clear of the zero axis). Persistency and Volatility are exponents/state variables, not signed returns, so they are never coloured.
| Quadrant | Label | % of period |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Volatile trend | 50 |
| Q2 | Volatile chop | 0 |
| Q3 | Quiet range | 0 |
| Q4 | Quiet drift | 50 |
| Transition | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet Drift → Volatile Trend | 7 | Vol rises, trend stays positive |
| Volatile Trend → Quiet Drift | 7 | Vol falls back; current state |
Home Depot's persistency held one value (≈0.083) for the first six months of the window before drifting — the series updates far less often than volatility and produces long vertical runs on the trace. Because it never turned negative, the stock only ever occupied the two positive-persistency quadrants. These statistics describe the stated window and are not predictions.
| Driver | Correlation | R² (%) | Rolling 60d | Rolling min | Rolling max | Stability | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 Primary | 0.037 | 0.1 | 0.060 | −0.115 | 0.213 | Stable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 2 | −0.019 | 0.0 | 0.199 | −0.295 | 0.283 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 3 | 0.043 | 0.2 | −0.233 | −0.295 | 0.328 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 4 | −0.030 | 0.1 | 0.058 | −0.287 | 0.170 | Variable | Neutral |
| Market Driver 5 | −0.052 | 0.3 | −0.237 | −0.243 | 0.147 | Stable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 1 Primary | −0.402 | 16.2 | −0.286 | −0.719 | −0.050 | Variable | Negative |
| Sector Driver 2 | −0.012 | 0.0 | −0.271 | −0.271 | 0.364 | Variable | Neutral |
| Sector Driver 3 | −0.049 | 0.2 | −0.045 | −0.312 | 0.102 | Variable | Neutral |
Market Drivers 1–5 then Sector Drivers 1–3. Daily log returns vs first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values, 261 observations. Correlations are exponents of covariation, not signed returns, so they are never coloured. Drivers as of 17 Aug 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Driver | Raw beta | Standardised beta | Share of explained variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Driver 1 (primary) | ~0.000 | 0.12 | ~8% |
| Sector Driver 1 (primary) | −0.240 | −0.43 | ~92% |
This is an idiosyncratic name, not a beta vehicle. Its correlation to the primary market driver is essentially zero (0.04), and its only meaningful systematic link is a moderate negative covariation with the primary sector driver. For the next 10–30 days that means the company — its own quarter, housing headlines, the rate path as it lands on Home Depot specifically — decides the month; a broad index hedge would neither offset nor explain an HD-specific move.
Market Driver 1 (solid) and Sector Driver 1 (dashed) against daily returns. The market-driver correlation hovers near zero throughout; the sector-driver correlation deepened to about −0.72 in the spring before easing to −0.29 now — the systematic link is loosening, leaving the name even more company-specific into the window.
Every group is named, never its proxy ticker. Conditional statistics describe the stated window (261 overlapping days) and are not forecasts.
| Market regime | Days | % of period | Cumulative return | Ann. return | Ann. vol | Sharpe | Hit rate | Best day | Worst day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet drift | 96 | 36.8% | +3.82% | +10.3% | 25.4% | 0.41 | 46.9% | +5.52% | −6.21% |
| Quiet range | 51 | 19.5% | −3.10% | −14.4% | 23.8% | −0.61 | 49.0% | +4.11% | −3.45% |
| Volatile chop | 54 | 20.7% | −4.17% | −18.0% | 25.8% | −0.70 | 51.9% | +5.31% | −3.12% |
| Volatile trend Current | 60 | 23.0% | −6.20% | −23.6% | 26.9% | −0.88 | 41.7% | +4.21% | −3.60% |
Best regime top (tinted), current/worst regime bottom (tinted). HD's best US-market backdrop is Quiet Drift; it is currently in its worst, Volatile Trend.
| Market regime | Days | % of period | Cumulative return | Ann. return | Ann. vol | Sharpe | Hit rate | Best day | Worst day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet range | 64 | 24.5% | +1.19% | +4.8% | 24.0% | 0.20 | 48.4% | +4.11% | −3.45% |
| Volatile chop | 51 | 19.5% | −0.44% | −2.2% | 25.8% | −0.08 | 54.9% | +5.31% | −3.12% |
| Volatile trend Current | 80 | 30.7% | −2.39% | −7.3% | 26.3% | −0.28 | 43.8% | +5.52% | −3.60% |
| Quiet drift | 66 | 25.3% | −8.05% | −27.4% | 25.9% | −1.06 | 43.9% | +3.72% | −6.21% |
Under the SP500 lens the current Volatile Trend regime is middling-negative for HD (Sharpe −0.28), better than the US-market read.
| Market regime | Days | % of period | Cumulative return | Ann. return | Ann. vol | Sharpe | Hit rate | Best day | Worst day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet range | 127 | 48.7% | +0.63% | +1.3% | 24.4% | 0.05 | 47.2% | +4.11% | −6.21% |
| Volatile chop Current | 101 | 38.7% | −7.42% | −17.5% | 26.4% | −0.66 | 47.5% | +5.52% | −3.45% |
| Volatile trend | 33 | 12.6% | −2.94% | −20.4% | 27.0% | −0.76 | 45.5% | +3.68% | −3.60% |
Global market's current Volatile Chop has also been a negative-Sharpe regime for HD (−0.66). All three broad-market lenses currently sit in HD-unfavourable regimes.
| Group | Current regime | Best regime | Worst regime | Cum. in current | Sharpe in current | Sharpe spread | Days in current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US market | Volatile trend | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | −6.20% | −0.88 | 1.29 | 60 |
| SP500 | Volatile trend | Quiet range | Quiet drift | −2.39% | −0.28 | 1.26 | 80 |
| Global market | Volatile chop | Quiet range | Volatile trend | −7.42% | −0.66 | 0.81 | 101 |
| Technology | Quiet range | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | +11.13% | 1.11 | 7.15 | 101 |
| Financials | Quiet drift | Volatile chop | Quiet range | −2.55% | −0.63 | 1.66 | 36 |
| Energy | Volatile trend | Volatile chop | Volatile trend | −22.66% | −1.80 | 5.41 | 93 |
| Utilities | Volatile chop | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | −8.83% | −1.30 | 2.21 | 74 |
| Europe | Volatile trend | Quiet drift | Volatile trend | −14.85% | −3.15 | 6.01 | 30 |
| Gold | Volatile chop | Quiet range | Volatile chop | −16.94% | −0.69 | 8.43 | 241 |
| VIX Near | Quiet range | Quiet range | Quiet drift | +3.65% | 0.17 | 2.17 | 215 |
| VIX Mid | Quiet drift | Quiet range | Volatile trend | +0.47% | 0.04 | 4.09 | 110 |
| Bonds near | Quiet range | Volatile trend | Volatile chop | −4.12% | −0.32 | 3.35 | 135 |
| Bonds mid | Quiet range | Volatile chop | Quiet drift | −4.49% | −0.25 | 0.84 | 182 |
| Bonds long | Quiet range | Quiet range | Volatile chop | −0.37% | −0.02 | 2.05 | 222 |
All 14 mapped groups. Cumulative return and Sharpe are HD's, conditioned on each group's current regime, over the 261-day window.
Regime-conditional history describes 4 Aug 2025 – 17 Aug 2026, not the future. Buckets hold 30–241 days; smaller buckets carry more noise in their annualised figures. Market-regime series as of 17 Aug 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.
| Date | Headline | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 26 | "Home Depot's worst may be over," analysts say as the housing downturn shows signs of easing | Positive |
| 19 Aug 26 | Jefferies lifts target to $398 (Buy) on the Q2 beat and share gains | Positive |
| 18 Aug 26 | Home Depot Q2 beats: revenue +5.7%, comp +1.7%, adj EPS $4.92; FY2026 guidance reaffirmed | Positive |
| 18 Aug 26 | Shares fade from a +1% intraday pop to close roughly flat | Negative |
| 17 Aug 26 | Stifel raises target to $340 (Hold) on relative platform strength | Neutral |
| 15 Aug 26 | Berkshire's $6.8bn homebuilder deal read as a bullish housing signal | Positive |
| 13 Aug 26 | Lowe's screens cheaper than Home Depot into the prints | Neutral |
| 11 Aug 26 | Wells Fargo lifts Home Depot to $400 (Overweight) | Positive |
| 8 Aug 26 | Home Depot marks 17 straight years of dividend increases ahead of the print | Positive |
| 22 Jun 26 | Home Depot and Lowe's fall after the Fed holds rates steady | Negative |
| 22 Jun 26 | Homebuilder average selling price hits a 9-year low — a remodeling tailwind for HD | Positive |
| 12 Jun 26 | Medline distribution-center fire flagged as a near-term supply headwind | Negative |
Newest first. The narrative into the print is constructive on fundamentals and the housing turn, guarded on rates and the tape.
| Field | The Home Depot | Peer context |
|---|---|---|
| Legal name | The Home Depot, Inc. | — |
| Exchange / IPO | NYSE: HD / 22 Sep 1981 | Dow component |
| Domicile | Atlanta, Georgia, USA | Lowe's: Mooresville, NC |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Discretionary / Home Improvement Retail (SIC 5211) | — |
| Market cap | $336.5B | ~2.8× Lowe's ($120.9B) |
| Employees | 472,400 | Lowe's 276,000 |
| TTM revenue | $169.2B | Lowe's $88.4B |
| Revenue model | 2,361 warehouse stores + Pro/MRO + building-products distribution (SRS 2024, GMS 2025) | DIY ~ half; Pro the growth engine |
| Key differentiators | #1 share of a ~$900bn TAM (~17%); Pro ecosystem, supply chain, SRS/GMS distribution reach | Scale & Pro depth vs Lowe's |
| CIK | 0000354950 | — |
| Website | homedepot.com | — |
The quarter was the strongest in years and better than every peer, which caps the downside; but a faded reaction, an intact downtrend, a premium multiple and a broad-market regime that has historically been Home Depot's worst cap the upside. With no earnings until 17 November, the window is a macro trade — Jackson Hole, August CPI and the 16 September FOMC. A dovish turn that revives housing sentiment flips it up; a hawkish surprise that breaks the ~$330 shelf opens the May low.