BHP · NYSE · Materials · Diversified metals & mining

BHP has never earned more from copper, and next year it has less of it to sell

In short

FY2026 delivered a record US$32.9bn underlying EBITDA, the largest dividend in four years and net debt down a third — and the market gave it 0.8% on the day, because the FY2027 book was already open: copper guided 11.7% lower at the midpoint with Escondida unit costs up 40%. Over the next 10–30 days the share is a copper-price instrument carrying a mechanical 2.2% dividend drop on 4 September, and consensus targets sit 12% below spot.

Research desk

2026-08-19 · Data as of 18 Aug 2026 close · Horizon 10–30 days

Mixed · price-led, volume-capped

Close 18 Aug 2026

$89.09

30 day

▲ 11.0%

Year to date

▲ 47.6%

From 52W high

▼ 4.4%

Ann. volatility

31.9%

Regime as of

18 Aug

Market cap

$226.4bn

52W range

$52.14–93.15

TTM revenue

$58.76bn

Rev growth

+14.6%

P/S TTM

3.85

P/E TTM

17.1

Report date

18 Aug 2026

TTM EPS

$5.20

EV/EBITDA

7.1

Copper output

1,953 kt

Iron ore output

265 Mt

Net debt

$8.69bn

Employees

~90,000

Next catalyst

4 Sep

BHP · 30-day price

BHP · 1-year price

00Executive summary

Dimension	Finding	Signal
Price action	$89.09 on 18 Aug, +47.6% year to date and 4.4% under the $93.15 high. The 16 July operational review knocked 5.6% out of the ADS in one session; copper's rally to a record $6.83/lb has since taken it back and more.	Mixed
Revenue growth	FY26 revenue US$58,760M, +14.6% on FY25. Growth was price-led: realised copper US$5.74/lb, +35%, against copper volumes that actually fell 3% to 1,953 kt.	Bullish
Profitability	Underlying EBITDA US$32,947M, +27%, a 56.1% margin on total revenue. Copper alone earned US$18,187M at a 70% margin and crossed half of group EBITDA for the first time. Underlying ROCE 26.1%.	Bullish
Valuation vs peers	17.1x underlying TTM earnings and 7.1x EV/EBITDA against Rio Tinto at 13.6x and 8.1x. Consensus target US$78.00 sits 12.4% below spot, and forward P/E of 18.7 above trailing 17.1 says the street models earnings down in FY27.	Bearish
Platform KPIs	FY27 copper guided 1,650–1,800 kt against 1,953 kt delivered — 11.7% lower at the midpoint, Escondida 16.7% lower as feed grade falls from 0.90% to about 0.70%. Iron ore guided flat at 260–272 Mt.	Bearish
Balance sheet	Net debt US$8,694M, down 33%; gearing 13.4% from 19.8%. Cash US$18,532M, current ratio 1.88, free cash flow US$9,800M, +83%. This funds the US$11bn annual capex without stress.	Bullish
Regime state	Q2 Volatile Chop — Persistency −0.231 (mildly mean-reverting, 58th percentile), Volatility +0.121 (normal, 62nd percentile), held 9 consecutive sessions. As of 18 Aug 2026, 1 trading day behind this report.	Mixed
Driver exposure	79.3% of daily variance is company-specific. Market Driver 1 explains 1.5%; Sector Driver 1 explains 20.4% at a −0.451 correlation. The index does not decide this month — the commodity does.	Neutral
Key risk in window	Copper is the whole story and it is priced for perfection: US$6.46/lb, +46.0% year to date, days off an all-time high. A 10% copper retracement removes roughly the entire FY27 price offset to the volume cut.	Bearish
Catalysts in window	NYSE ex-dividend 4 Sep for US$1.98 per ADS (a mechanical −2.2%); DRP election closes 7 Sep; FOMC with projections 15–16 Sep; China August activity data 31 Aug–15 Sep.	Mixed
Overall view (10–30 days) — A first-class operating result already in the price, a guided volume decline already flagged in July, and an ex-dividend date inside the window. Direction over the month is delegated almost entirely to the copper price.		Mixed

Signal reflects the 10–30 day window only. Row tint matches the badge. Prices as of the 18 Aug 2026 close; copper spot as of 19 Aug 2026.

BHP has just printed the best year it has had since the 2021 iron ore spike, and the share barely moved. That is the whole report in one observation: the result was the past, and the market is already trading FY2027 — a year in which BHP sells 11.7% less copper at costs that rise 40% at its biggest mine. Whether the next month is up or down depends on one variable BHP does not control.

01Investment thesis

Each case states what would have to happen inside the next 10–30 days for it to play out. This section argues; the verdict is section 02.

Bull case

Copper spot is 12.5% above what BHP actually realised in FY26. The FY26 average was US$5.74/lb; spot on 19 August is US$6.46/lb after a 46.0% year-to-date run and an all-time high of US$6.83 set this month. Hold that through September and the FY27 price uplift roughly cancels the 11.7% volume cut.

The dividend is the largest in four years and it is covered. 172 US cents for the year, 99 cents final, US$8.7bn in total at a 66% payout, funded from US$9,800M of free cash flow — up 83%. Yield on the ADS is 3.86%.

The balance sheet has the most room it has had since FY24. Net debt fell 33% to US$8,694M, gearing to 13.4%, and cash sits at US$18,532M. Net debt is 0.26x underlying EBITDA.

The market regime BHP is trading in has been its best. The US market group is in Volatile Trend, the quadrant in which BHP returned an annualised 89.3% at a 2.46 Sharpe across 87 of the last 499 sessions, and after which the median forward 21-day return was +2.28% with a 63.4% hit rate.

Positioning is not crowded to the upside. Consensus is Hold with a US$78.00 mean target; nine of ten tracked actions this year were downgrades, cuts or holds. There is no ratings froth to unwind, and post-result upgrades are the easiest marginal buyer to find.

The result itself beat where it mattered. Net debt came in at US$8.7bn against UBS's US$9.5bn estimate, and the final dividend landed at the top of the range brokers had been marking up through July.

Neutral case

The news is already in the price twice over. The volume downgrade was delivered on 16 July and cost 5.6% in a session; the earnings beat was delivered on 18 August and paid 0.8%. Both events have been discounted.

Persistency is negative and has been for a year. At −0.231 the series has sat in mean-reverting territory for the entire 290-session sample, with a maximum of +0.018. Moves have retraced rather than extended; that argues for range, not for direction.

Iron ore is doing nothing in either direction. Spot is US$95.28/t, down 6.2% year to date, and FY27 volumes are guided flat at 260–272 Mt against 265 Mt. The 44% of EBITDA that comes from iron ore is a stabiliser, not a swing factor.

Volatility is merely normal. The volatility state reads +0.121 — inside the normal band and at the 62nd percentile of its own year. Realised 30-day volatility of 35.2% is elevated against the two-year 31.9%, but not a dislocation.

The ex-dividend drop is arithmetic, not information. US$1.98 per ADS comes out of the price on 4 September. In a flat tape that is a 2.2% decline that means nothing about the business and everything about the chart.

Nothing else is scheduled. The next earnings disclosure is the H1 FY27 result in February 2027, roughly six months beyond the window. Between now and then the only company-specific dated events are dividend mechanics.

Bear case

FY27 copper is guided down 11.7% at the midpoint. 1,650–1,800 kt against 1,953 kt delivered. Escondida alone goes from 1,261 kt to 1,000–1,100 kt — a 16.7% cut — as feed grade falls from 0.90% to about 0.70%. This is the asset that generates most of the 55% of EBITDA that copper now provides.

Costs rise where volumes fall. Escondida FY27 unit costs are guided up roughly 40% to US$1.20–1.50/lb on sulphuric acid, diesel and FX; WAIO unit costs up about 7% to US$20.25–21.75/t. Falling volume into rising unit cost is the worst combination for margin.

Consensus says the stock is 12.4% too expensive. Mean target US$78.00 against a US$89.09 close, and the consensus rating is Hold. Forward P/E of 18.7 exceeds trailing 17.1, which only happens when analysts model earnings falling — here by roughly 8.6%.

Statutory earnings are a third below underlying. Attributable profit was US$9,833M against US$13,204M underlying, after a US$2.3bn non-cash Jansen impairment. Jansen is 84% complete, adds 5% to global potash supply, and has already been written down before it has sold a tonne.

The regime punishes exactly this setup. Q2 Volatile Chop is the quadrant in which trend-following has been worst rewarded. The share is 4.4% below its high after a 47.6% year-to-date run, in a regime where extremes have historically been faded rather than followed.

The single input is at a record. Copper at US$6.46/lb is 46.0% higher this year and within 5.4% of an all-time high set days ago. A retracement to even US$5.80 — the FY26 realised level — removes the entire price offset and leaves the volume cut naked.

BHP sold a record year to a market that had already moved on to the next one.

02Composite assessment

Over the next 10–30 days the copper price, not the FY26 result, sets BHP's direction — spot US$6.46/lb is carrying an 11.7% FY27 volume cut and a 2.2% ex-dividend drop on 4 September, and a retracement below roughly US$6.00/lb would remove the offset and hand the tape back to the bears.

2.1 — Dimension scores

Revenue growth

7.0

FY26 revenue +14.6% to US$58,760M, but price-led: copper realised +35%, copper volume −3%.

Profitability

9.0

Underlying EBITDA margin 56.1%, copper margin 70%, underlying ROCE 26.1% vs 20.6%.

Valuation

4.5

17.1x underlying vs Rio Tinto 13.6x; consensus US$78.00 is 12.4% below spot; forward P/E above trailing.

Earnings quality

6.5

Statutory US$9,833M vs underlying US$13,204M — a US$3.37bn gap including a US$2.3bn Jansen write-down.

Balance sheet

9.5

Net debt US$8,694M (0.26x EBITDA), gearing 13.4%, cash US$18,532M, current ratio 1.88.

Competitive position

9.0

Lowest-cost major iron ore producer for a seventh year; largest copper producer; WAIO C1 ~US$15.50/t.

Structural risk

5.0

Escondida grade 0.90%→0.70% with unit costs +40%; Jansen impaired; Samarco provision US$5.2bn.

Regime alignment

6.0

Own regime Q2 Volatile Chop (poor for trend), but US market group sits in Volatile Trend — BHP's best.

Driver independence

8.5

79.3% idiosyncratic; Market Driver 1 explains 1.5% of variance, Sector Driver 1 explains 20.4%.

Composite

7.0

Growth 25 · Valuation 20 · Profitability 18 · Execution 12 · Risk 10 · Regime 10 · Driver independence 5

Green at 8 and above, yellow 6–8, red below 6. The composite row states its weighting. Execution quality is the mean of earnings quality and competitive position; risk management the mean of structural risk and balance sheet.

2.2 — Where it wins and where it loses

Wins

Margin. A 56.1% underlying EBITDA margin on total revenue, and 70% inside the copper division, against a peer-group EV/EBITDA-implied median of about 36.9%.

Cash conversion. Free cash flow US$9,800M, up 83%, against capex of US$10,257M — the growth programme is self-funded and the dividend still rose 56%.

Gearing. 13.4% against 19.8% a year ago, the lowest since FY24, with US$18,532M of cash on the balance sheet at 30 June.

Independence from the index. Market Driver 1 explains 1.5% of BHP's daily variance. A broad-market drawdown is not, on this evidence, the thing that hurts it.

Loses

Forward volume. Copper guided to 1,650–1,800 kt from 1,953 kt. There is no version of FY27 in which BHP sells more copper than it just did.

Entry price. The mean analyst target is US$78.00 against a US$89.09 close — the stock is trading 14.2% through where the sell side thinks it belongs.

Cost direction. Escondida unit costs guided up about 40% and WAIO up about 7%, at the same time as the volume base shrinks.

Concentration. Copper is 55% of EBITDA and copper sits within 5.4% of an all-time high. The diversified miner is, for now, a single-commodity bet.

03Risk factors

Ordered by what can bite inside the next 10–30 days, not by ultimate severity. Structural risks that cannot resolve inside the window are marked as context.

Live in the window

Copper retracement. Copper is US$6.46/lb after a 46.0% year-to-date advance and an all-time high of US$6.83 set this month. Copper is 55% of group EBITDA at a 70% margin, so the earnings sensitivity is close to linear. A move back to the FY26 realised level of US$5.74/lb is a 11.1% fall in the input that is single-handedly offsetting an 11.7% volume cut — and it needs no new information to happen.

The ex-dividend gap on 4 September. US$1.98 comes out of each ADS at the NYSE ex-date, 2.2% of the 18 August close. In a flat tape this alone takes the share to roughly US$87.11. It is mechanical, it is certain, and it falls squarely inside the window.

Post-result target resets. Ten tracked analysts carry a US$78.00 mean target against a US$89.09 close. Brokers refresh models in the two to three weeks after a full-year print. If the resets come through below spot — as the current distribution implies — each publication is a headline the share has to absorb.

China activity data and the September FOMC. China's August PMI, trade and activity prints land between 31 August and 15 September, and the FOMC publishes projections on 16 September. Iron ore is already down 6.2% this year at US$95.28/t; weak Chinese steel data hits the 44% of EBITDA that copper does not cover, and the dollar path out of the FOMC is a direct input into the copper price.

Structural context

Escondida grade decline. Feed grade falls from 0.90% to roughly 0.70%, taking FY27 production to 1,000–1,100 kt from 1,261 kt and unit costs up about 40% to US$1.20–1.50/lb. This is geology on a multi-year schedule; the new concentrator that answers it has only US$0.5bn of pre-commitment funding and an FID targeted for CY27–28. Nothing resolves inside a month.

Jansen execution and the potash market it is entering. Stage 1 is 84% complete for first production mid-CY27 and has already absorbed a US$2.3bn non-cash impairment. At 8.5 Mtpa the project adds roughly 5% to global potash supply into a market BHP does not control. The next hard datapoint is first production, ten months beyond the window.

Samarco. The FY26 accounts carry a US$5.2bn provision for the dam failure. Provisions of this kind move on settlement and court timetables measured in years, not weeks, but they sit permanently between statutory and underlying earnings.

Capital intensity through FY31. Capex is guided at about US$11bn a year to FY31, more than half of it copper, with Vicuña construction at 4,000–4,200 metres altitude and a possible Stage I FID at end-2026. Execution risk accumulates over years; it does not price in a month.

3.1 — Competitive, macro and financial

Risk	Category	Mechanism	Bites in window?
Copper price reversal	Macro	Copper is 55% of EBITDA at a 70% margin; spot sits 12.5% above the FY26 realised price and 5.4% below an all-time high. Earnings sensitivity is near-linear and the position is crowded after a 46% run.	Yes
Ex-dividend mechanics	Financial	US$1.98 per ADS leaves the price at the 4 September NYSE ex-date; DRP elections close 7 September.	Yes · certain
Broker target resets	Financial	Mean target US$78.00 is 12.4% below spot. Post-result model refreshes typically publish within two to three weeks.	Likely
China steel demand	Macro	Iron ore at US$95.28/t is down 6.2% year to date and is 44% of EBITDA. August PMI, trade and activity data print 31 Aug–15 Sep.	Possible
Escondida grade and cost	Competitive	Grade 0.90%→0.70%; FY27 volume −16.7% and unit costs +40%. Already guided; new information would have to come from an operational surprise.	Structural
Jansen capital and potash pricing	Competitive	US$2.3bn impaired, 84% complete, adds ~5% to world potash supply from mid-CY27.	Structural
Samarco provision	Governance	US$5.2bn provision; drives the US$3.37bn gap between statutory and underlying attributable profit alongside the Jansen charge.	Structural
Safety and licence to operate	Governance	A fatality at Peak Downs was disclosed with the FY26 result. Fatalities carry regulatory, operational and reputational consequences that are unpredictable in timing.	Possible

Almost every risk that can actually move BHP inside a month is a price risk, not a company risk. The company-level problems — grade decline, project capital, legacy provisions — are real, are already guided, and play out over years. What is left for the next four weeks is copper, China data, one certain dividend gap and a sell side that has to publish new numbers.

04Earnings and guidance signals

BHP reports half-yearly, so the earnings table below is on half-year periods rather than quarters. Reaction is the first full NYSE session after the release, which lands the morning after the Australian announcement.

4.1 — Earnings history

Quarter	Report date	Revenue	vs est.	EPS (dil.)	vs est.	Reaction
H2 FY2026	18 Aug 2026	$30,860M	Beat	$2.76	Beat	+0.81%
H1 FY2026	17 Feb 2026	$27,900M	n/d	$2.44	n/d	+1.24%
H2 FY2025	19 Aug 2025	$26,062M	n/d	$2.00	n/d	+0.51%
H1 FY2025	18 Feb 2025	$25,200M	n/d	$2.00	n/d	+0.76%
H2 FY2024	27 Aug 2024	$28,427M	n/d	$2.80	n/d	+0.29%
H1 FY2024	20 Feb 2024	~$27,231M	n/d	$2.60	n/d	n/d

EPS is underlying diluted earnings per ADS — twice the per-ordinary-share figure BHP reports, since one ADS represents two ordinary shares. H2 columns are the full year less the reported first half. "vs est." is marked n/d where consensus half-year estimates were not available in the sources used; the H2 FY2026 beat is evidenced by net debt of US$8.7bn against UBS's US$9.5bn estimate and a final dividend at the top of pre-result broker marks. Minus signs are − (U+2212). Colour only where the sign carries valence.

4.2 — Beat consistency

Company	Rev beat rate	EPS beat rate	Guidance
BHP	n/d	n/d	Volume and unit-cost guidance by asset; no revenue or EPS guidance
Rio Tinto	n/d	n/d	Same convention — volume and cost guidance only
Vale	n/d	n/d	Same convention
Freeport-McMoRan	n/d	n/d	Quarterly sales volume and unit net cash cost guidance
Peer median	—	—	—

Beat rates are n/d for the whole group: BHP and Rio Tinto are foreign private issuers reporting half-yearly, and consistent half-year consensus histories were not available in the sources used. Diversified miners guide volumes and unit costs, not revenue or EPS, so a conventional beat rate would measure the wrong thing.

4.3 — Forward guidance

Item	Value	Comment
Next report date	Feb 2027	Outside the window — H1 FY2027 result is roughly six months away
FY27 copper	1,650–1,800 kt	−11.7% on FY26's 1,953 kt at the midpoint
FY27 Escondida	1,000–1,100 kt	−16.7% on 1,261 kt; grade 0.90%→0.70%
FY27 iron ore	260–272 Mt	Flat on 265 Mt; WAIO 253–264 Mt
FY27 steelmaking coal	18.5–20.5 Mt	Against 18.6 Mt delivered
FY27 Escondida unit cost	$1.20–1.50/lb	~+40% on acid, diesel and FX
FY27 WAIO unit cost	$20.25–21.75/t	~+7%, subject to the diesel benchmark
FY27 capex	~$11bn	Held at this level to FY31; >50% copper
Implied FY27 EPS (consensus)	~$4.75	Derived from a 18.7x forward P/E on the US$89.09 close — roughly −8.6% on FY26

The next print does not land inside this window, and that matters more than usual: with no earnings event to reprice against, the share has nothing to trade on for the next month except commodity prices, dividend mechanics and whatever the sell side publishes as it rebuilds its models around a copper book that shrinks 11.7%.

05Analyst outlook

Period	Source	View	Key point
Aug 2026	MarketBeat consensus (10 analysts)	Mixed	Hold, mean target US$78.00 — 12.4% below the 18 August close. High US$95.00, low US$48.00.
Aug 2026	StockAnalysis consensus	Mixed	Hold, target US$74.07, a 16.9% discount to spot. Forward P/E 18.7 against trailing 17.1.
Aug 2026	BHP company guidance	Bearish	FY27 copper 1,650–1,800 kt against 1,953 kt delivered; Escondida unit costs guided up ~40%.
Jul 2026	Zacks Research	Bearish	Cut from Strong Buy to Hold on 22 July, six days after the operational review took 5.6% out of the ADS.
Jul 2026	UBS (pre-result)	Bullish	Flagged net debt beating at ~US$9.5bn and the final dividend beating consensus by ~16%. Both landed.
Jun 2026	Bank of America	Mixed	Neutral maintained, target trimmed from US$93.00 to US$91.00 on 22 June.
Apr 2026	Goldman Sachs	Bullish	Upgraded from Hold to Strong Buy on 17 April, ahead of the copper move that has driven the year.

Coverage limitation: the tracked consensus is a ten-analyst US-listing sample and does not capture the full Australian and UK broker universe that covers the primary ASX and LSE lines. Views published before 18 August 2026 pre-date the FY2026 result and the FY2027 guidance detail.

06Insider and board activity

Date	Insider	Transaction	Shares	Price	Value	Signal read
1 Jul 2026	Brandon Craig, CEO	Initial holding on appointment	47,839	—	—	25,339 direct plus 22,500 via family trust, disclosed on succeeding Mike Henry. Not a market purchase.
1 Jul 2026	Brandon Craig, CEO	Incentive rights granted	254,116	—	—	109,216 LTIP performance rights, 74,100 deferred rights, 70,800 conditional rights. Aligns pay to multi-year delivery, not to the next month.
21 Feb 2025	Ross McEwan, Chair	On-market purchase	25,000	A$40.53	A$1,013,250	Taking his holding to 35,000 ordinary shares, days after being named Chair. The only material on-market director purchase on record; the shares have roughly doubled since.

BHP is a foreign private issuer and does not file Forms 3, 4 or 5 with the SEC, so no US insider transaction feed exists. Director dealings are disclosed through ASX Appendix 3Y notices and LSE regulatory announcements, and the entries above are what those disclosures show. There have been no disclosed director purchases or sales in the 30 days to 19 August 2026 — and, given the FY2026 result, directors would in any case have been inside a closed period. The absence of insider activity in this window carries no signal in either direction.

07Recent news and catalysts

Date	Source	Development	In window?
19 Aug 2026	Trading Economics	Copper US$6.46/lb, −0.4% on the day but +46.0% year to date, against an all-time high of US$6.83 set earlier in August. Iron ore US$95.28/t, −6.2% year to date.	Ongoing
18 Aug 2026	BHP	FY2026 result: revenue US$58,760M (+15%), underlying EBITDA US$32,947M (+27%), underlying attributable profit US$13,204M (+30%), underlying ROCE 26.1%, net debt US$8,694M (−33%). ADS +0.81%.	Released
18 Aug 2026	BHP	Final dividend of 99 US cents declared — US$5.0bn, the largest in four years; 172 US cents for the year at a 66% payout. NYSE ex-date 4 September, payment 23 September.	Yes
18 Aug 2026	BHP	US$2.3bn non-cash impairment taken against Jansen, which is 84% complete for first production mid-CY27. Statutory attributable profit US$9,833M against US$13,204M underlying.	Released
18 Aug 2026	BHP	US$0.5bn pre-commitment approved for a new Escondida concentrator, 230–270 ktpa at a 16–18% IRR, with FID targeted CY27–28. Copper crossed half of group EBITDA for the first time at US$18,187M and a 70% margin.	No
16 Jul 2026	BHP	FY2026 operational review: record iron ore at 265 Mt, copper 1,953 kt (−3%), and FY2027 copper guidance of 1,650–1,800 kt — roughly 3% below consensus at the midpoint. ADS −5.58% in one session.	Released
16 Jul 2026	BHP	Ministers North approved — a new Pilbara iron ore mine to sustain WAIO volumes.	No
1 Jul 2026	BHP	Brandon Craig succeeds Mike Henry as Chief Executive, disclosing 47,839 shares and 254,116 incentive rights.	No
5 Jun 2026	CN / GlobeNewswire	Canadian National signs a transport agreement to move Jansen potash to west-coast export terminals, closing a logistics gap ahead of mid-2027 first production.	No
21 May 2026	BHP	Mark Vassella appointed a non-executive director, adding heavy-industry operating experience to the board.	No

Newest first. The final column states whether the event falls inside the next 10–30 days (29 August to 18 September 2026). Price reactions are NYSE ADS close-to-close on the first full session after the Australian announcement.

Catalysts inside the window

31 Aug – 15 Sep — China's August PMI, trade and activity data. Moves iron ore, which is 44% of EBITDA and already down 6.2% this year.
4 Sep — NYSE ex-dividend date for the 99 US cent final dividend, US$1.98 per ADS. A certain, mechanical −2.2% against the 18 August close.
7 Sep — dividend reinvestment plan election deadline, 5:00pm AEST. Determines how much of the US$5.0bn is recycled into stock rather than paid out.
15–16 Sep — FOMC decision with a Summary of Economic Projections. The dollar and real-rate path out of this meeting feeds directly into the copper price that is carrying the stock.
Early September, date unconfirmed — the FY2026 Annual Report and Form 20-F, which in prior years have followed the result by roughly two weeks and carry the full statutory accounts behind the US$3.37bn gap between statutory and underlying profit.
The 23 September dividend payment date sits just outside the 30-day window.

08Ratings and price targets · peer frame

Company	Price	Market cap	TTM revenue	P/S TTM	Rev growth (latest period, YoY)	Source view	News sentiment
BHP Group	$89.09	$226.4bn	$58.76bn	3.85	+14.6%	Hold	Mixed
Rio Tinto	$96.69	$157.3bn	$61.79bn	2.55	n/d	Buy	Positive
Vale	$13.68	$58.2bn	$42.09bn	1.38	n/d	n/d	Mixed
Freeport-McMoRan	$66.32	$95.2bn	$25.87bn	3.68	n/d	Buy	Positive
Southern Copper	$187.80	$156.7bn	$15.79bn	9.92	n/d	Sell	Mixed
Peer median	—	$126.0bn	$34.0bn	3.12	n/d	—	—

Prices are the 18 Aug 2026 NYSE close; market caps are shares outstanding × that close. Data-tier limitation: peer year-on-year revenue growth is marked n/d because the reporting calendars do not align — BHP and Rio Tinto report half-yearly to June and December respectively, Vale and Freeport quarterly — and a common-basis growth figure was not available from the sources used. BHP's +14.6% is FY2026 against FY2025. Southern Copper's 9.92x P/S reflects a 62.7% EBITDA margin and is not directly comparable to a diversified producer's.

BHP is the most expensive diversified miner in the group on sales and the second most expensive on earnings, and it is the only one of the five carrying a Hold from its consensus while trading above every published target but one. Rio Tinto offers a bigger revenue base, a lower multiple, a higher yield and a Buy consensus. That relative frame is what makes the sell side reluctant here, and it does not depend on anything BHP did wrong.

8.5Analyst price targets · multiple sources

Recent analyst actions

Analyst / source	Current target	Previous	Date	Implied return	Rating	Direction
Zacks Research	—	—	22 Jul 2026	—	Hold	▼ Lowered
Weiss Ratings	—	—	17 Jul 2026	—	Hold (C)	▶ Maintained
Deutsche Bank	—	—	2 Jul 2026	—	Buy	▶ Maintained
Bank of America	$91.00	$93.00	22 Jun 2026	+2.1%	Neutral	▼ Lowered
Citigroup	—	—	8 Jun 2026	—	Neutral	▶ Maintained
DZ Bank	—	—	28 May 2026	—	Hold	▲ Raised
Argus	$95.00	—	27 Apr 2026	+6.6%	Buy	▲ Raised
Goldman Sachs	—	—	17 Apr 2026	—	Strong Buy	▲ Raised
Berenberg Bank	—	—	2 Apr 2026	—	Hold	▲ Raised
Sanford C. Bernstein	$48.00	$49.50	9 Mar 2026	−46.1%	Market Perform	▼ Lowered

Newest first. Direction is ▲ raised, ▶ maintained, ▼ lowered. Several houses publish a rating without a public dollar target on the US listing; those rows show an em dash rather than an invented number. Every action listed pre-dates the 18 August FY2026 result, so the distribution below describes the pre-result state of the sell side, not its response to the print. The Bernstein US$48.00 target is a clear outlier — it sat below the traded price throughout 2026 — and it is what drags the mean US$78.00 well under the median of the dated dollar targets.

Metric	Value
Last close (18 Aug 2026)	$89.09
Consensus target (mean)	$78.00
Median target	$91.00
High target	$95.00
Low target	$48.00
Implied upside to consensus	−12.4%
Implied downside to low	−46.1%
Analysts contributing	10

Median is the median of the three dated dollar targets on record (US$48.00, US$91.00, US$95.00); the source does not publish a full-sample median. Implied upside to consensus is negative — the mean target sits below spot.

Target range vs last close

09Fundamental analysis and peer comparison

1,725

FY2027 copper guidance at the midpoint — 11.7% below the 1,953 kt BHP just delivered

Escondida carries most of the cut: 1,000–1,100 kt against 1,261 kt, as feed grade falls from 0.90% to about 0.70%. Guidance issued 16 July 2026, reconfirmed 18 August 2026.

9.A — Quarterly earnings trend

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Δ	YoY Δ	EPS (dil.)	Gross margin	Adj. EBITDA	Margin	vs est.	Reaction
H1 FY2024	~$27,231M	—	—	$2.60	—	~$13,857M	50.9%	n/d	n/d
H2 FY2024	$28,427M	+4.4%	—	$2.80	—	$15,159M	53.3%	n/d	+0.29%
H1 FY2025	$25,200M	−11.4%	−7.5%	$2.00	—	$12,400M	49.2%	n/d	+0.76%
H2 FY2025	$26,062M	+3.4%	−8.3%	$2.00	—	$13,578M	52.1%	n/d	+0.51%
H1 FY2026	$27,900M	+7.1%	+10.7%	$2.44	—	$15,500M	55.6%	n/d	+1.24%
H2 FY2026	$30,860M	+10.6%	+18.4%	$2.76	—	$17,447M	56.5%	Beat	+0.81%
FY2027 consensus (implied)	—	—	—	~$4.75 FY	—	—	—	Below FY26	—

Guide, implied and peer-median rows go grey. BHP reports half-yearly; H2 figures are the full year less the reported first half and are derived rather than separately reported. EPS is underlying diluted earnings per ADS (two ordinary shares). Margin is underlying EBITDA on total revenue, which runs about three points below BHP's own stated margin because BHP excludes third-party product revenue from its denominator. Gross margin is not disclosed at the half-year level and is left blank rather than estimated. The implied FY2027 EPS is derived from a 18.7x forward P/E on the 18 August close.

Revenue $M · own band

Underlying EBITDA margin % · own band

Two series sharing an x axis but not a scale get two stacked bands, never one. Six reported half-years, H1 FY2024 to H2 FY2026.

9.1 — Liquidity

Metric	30 Jun 2026	30 Jun 2025	30 Jun 2024	Target
Current ratio	1.88	1.46	1.70	1.5–3.0 healthy — back inside the band
Quick ratio	1.48	1.11	1.29	≥1.0 healthy
Cash ratio	1.13	0.76	0.87	Industry dependent; cash alone now covers current liabilities

Column headers are actual reporting dates, never "1Y ago". Ratios derived from reported balance-sheet items: current assets US$31,033M / US$22,830M / US$24,338M, inventories US$6,591M / US$5,538M / US$5,828M, cash US$18,532M / US$11,894M / US$12,501M, current liabilities US$16,465M / US$15,639M / US$14,296M.

Peer comparison (most recent reported)	Current ratio	Net cash position	Liquidity status
BHP Group	1.88	−$8.69bn	Strong — 0.26x underlying EBITDA
Rio Tinto	1.42	−$19.98bn	Adequate — the most levered of the group in absolute terms
Vale	1.19	−$15.47bn	Adequate — thinnest current cover
Freeport-McMoRan	2.07	−$6.28bn	Strong
Southern Copper	5.06	−$1.29bn	Very strong — effectively unlevered
Peer median	2.07	−$6.28bn	—

Peer net cash is derived as enterprise value less market capitalisation from a single third-party provider, so it is a market-implied net debt rather than a reported balance-sheet figure.

9.2 — Leverage and solvency

Metric	30 Jun 2026	30 Jun 2025	30 Jun 2024	Target
Debt-to-equity	0.48	0.49	0.45	Lower is safer — gross debt barely moved; net debt fell on cash
Debt-to-assets	0.22	0.23	0.22	<0.5 conservative
Interest coverage	~23.4×	n/d	n/d	>2.5 healthy. Underlying EBITDA / net finance costs annualised from the US$705M reported for H1 FY2026; prior years not disclosed in the sources used
Debt service coverage	~5.3×	n/d	n/d	>1.25 healthy. Operating cash flow / (short-term debt + annualised net finance costs)
Gearing (as reported by BHP)	13.4%	19.8%	15.7%	Net debt / (net debt + net assets) — the company's own measure, shown for reference

Total debt US$27,121M / US$25,552M / US$22,231M against shareholders' equity US$56,321M / US$52,218M / US$49,120M and total assets US$121,387M / US$108,790M / US$102,362M. Coverage ratios are marked with a tilde because net finance costs are annualised from the half-year disclosure.

9.3 — Profitability

Metric	H2 FY2026	TTM (FY2026)	H2 FY2025	FY2025	FY2024	Trend
Gross margin	—	85.9%	—	82.2%	82.2%	▲
Operating margin	—	42.1%	—	36.3%	40.0%	▲
Net margin	—	16.7%	—	17.6%	14.2%	→
Adj. EBITDA margin	56.5%	56.1%	52.1%	50.7%	52.1%	▲
Return on assets	—	8.1%	—	8.3%	7.7%	→
Return on equity	—	17.5%	—	17.3%	16.1%	▲
DuPont (NPM × AT × EM)	—	17.5%	—	17.3%	16.1%	▲
Underlying ROCE (as reported)	—	26.1%	—	20.6%	27.2%	▲

Net margin, ROA, ROE and DuPont use statutory attributable profit — US$9,833M in FY2026, after the US$2.3bn Jansen impairment. On underlying attributable profit of US$13,204M the FY2026 net margin is 22.5% and return on equity 23.4%. Half-year columns are shown only where BHP discloses the component; gross and operating margin are annual-only. Gross margin is on a third-party data provider's cost classification and is not comparable with the peer figures below.

Peer comparison	Gross	Op margin	Net margin	Adj. EBITDA	ROE	Rank
BHP Group	85.9%	42.1%	16.7%	56.1%	24.0%	2 of 5
Rio Tinto	29.8%	26.7%	19.6%	37.1%	19.3%	3 of 5
Vale	34.9%	27.7%	4.8%	35.4%	4.1%	5 of 5
Freeport-McMoRan	38.3%	27.3%	11.4%	36.9%	14.8%	4 of 5
Southern Copper	64.5%	56.9%	35.9%	62.7%	49.9%	1 of 5
Peer median	36.6%	27.5%	15.5%	36.9%	17.1%	—

Rank is on return on equity. Peer adjusted EBITDA margin is derived as enterprise value divided by EV/EBITDA, then divided by TTM revenue — a common basis across all five. Peer ROE and the BHP figure in this table are taken from the same third-party provider so the comparison holds; BHP's ROE on its own statutory statements and total equity is 17.5%, and its reported underlying ROCE is 26.1%. Gross margin definitions differ by reporter and the row should not be read across.

9.4 — Efficiency, growth and platform

Metric	Current / TTM	Prior year
Asset turnover	0.48	0.47
EPS growth (YoY, underlying)	+29.9%	−25.7%
EPS growth (YoY, statutory)	+8.9%	+14.1%
Dividend per ADS	$3.44	$2.20
Dividend yield	3.86%	4.10%
Free cash flow	$9,800M	$5,300M

Platform metric	FY2026	YoY
Copper production	1,953 kt	−3.2%
of which Escondida	1,261 kt	−3.3%
Iron ore production	265 Mt	+0.8%
Steelmaking coal (BMA)	18.6 Mt	+3.3%
Energy coal (NSWEC)	16.4 Mt	+9.3%
Realised copper price	$5.74/lb	+35%
Realised iron ore price	$84.56/wmt	+3%

Prior-year dividend yield is the FY2025 dividend per ADS of US$2.20 on the 19 Aug 2025 close of US$53.70. Every volume in the platform table fell or was flat except coal — FY2026 growth came from price, not from tonnes.

Company	Asset turnover	Rev / employee	Employees	EPS growth	Div yield	Rank
BHP Group	0.48	$0.65M	90,000	+29.9%	3.86%	4 of 5
Rio Tinto	n/d	$1.01M	61,230	n/d	4.77%	1 of 5
Vale	n/d	$0.64M	65,805	n/d	6.88%	5 of 5
Freeport-McMoRan	n/d	$0.89M	29,000	n/d	0.90%	3 of 5
Southern Copper	n/d	$0.95M	16,617	n/d	2.32%	2 of 5
Peer median	n/d	$0.92M	45,115	n/d	3.55%	—

Rank is on revenue per employee. Peer asset turnover and EPS growth are marked n/d: the provider's return-on-asset figures for this group were internally inconsistent, so implying total assets from them would have produced a number that looks precise and is not. Headcount is total workforce including contractors on a single provider's basis for all five, which is why BHP's 90,000 exceeds the ~48,000 direct employees in its own reporting.

9.5 — Valuation multiples

Metric	Current	Comment
P/E TTM (underlying)	17.1	On US$5.20 underlying EPS per ADS
P/E TTM (statutory)	23.0	On US$3.87 basic EPS per ADS, after the Jansen charge
Forward P/E	18.7	Above trailing — consensus models earnings down ~8.6%
Price / book	4.02	Book value US$56,321M; US$20.04 per ADS
Price / sales TTM	3.85	Peer median 3.12
EV / EBITDA	7.13	EV US$235.0bn on underlying EBITDA of US$32,947M; peer median 9.35
PEG (trailing)	0.57	Flattered — forward growth is negative, so the trailing PEG describes a year that will not repeat
Dividend yield	3.86%	US$3.44 per ADS; 66% payout

Peer	P/S TTM	P/E TTM	PEG
BHP Group	3.85	17.1	0.57
Rio Tinto	2.55	13.6	n/d
Vale	1.38	29.3	n/d
Freeport-McMoRan	3.68	32.5	n/d
Southern Copper	9.92	28.3	n/d
Peer median	3.12	28.8	n/d

Peer PEG is n/d because a common-basis forward growth rate was not available. BHP screens cheap against the peer median on earnings only because Vale, Freeport and Southern Copper are all carrying depressed or cyclically odd trailing earnings; against Rio Tinto — the only true structural comparator — BHP is 26% more expensive on P/E and 51% more expensive on sales.

The fundamentals say BHP has earned the right to a premium and has already been given it. A 56.1% EBITDA margin, 26.1% underlying ROCE and 13.4% gearing are best-in-class numbers, and at 7.13x EV/EBITDA the enterprise is not expensive. But the equity trades at 17.1x underlying earnings that are guided to fall, against a comparator at 13.6x, and the consensus forward multiple already exceeds the trailing one. For a 10–30 day view that means the valuation offers no cushion: there is no cheapness to be discovered, only a commodity price to be defended.

10Regime analysis · Persistency and Volatility

−0.231

Persistency, placing BHP in Q2 Volatile Chop — the quadrant where trend-following has been least rewarded

290 daily observations, 24 Jun 2025 – 18 Aug 2026. As of 18 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

10.1 — Regime trace

BHP — Regime trace · Persistency vs Volatility (290 daily points, oldest faint → newest bright). Persistency on x, Volatility on y, Q1 volatile trend, Q2 volatile chop, Q3 quiet range, Q4 quiet drift. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily, window 24 Jun 2025 – 18 Aug 2026, 290 observations, plotted every other session for legibility. As of 18 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

10.2 — Current regime read

Measure	Current	Mean	Std dev	Min	Max	Percentile	Interpretation
Persistency	−0.2312	−0.2029	0.0751	−0.3050	0.0179	58.3	Mildly mean-reverting. The series has never been meaningfully positive in this sample — its maximum is +0.018 — so moves have retraced rather than extended all year.
Volatility	0.1214	0.0017	0.2891	−0.4966	0.5000	62.1	Normal volatility, slightly above the sample mean. Realised 30-day volatility of 35.2% against a two-year 31.9% is consistent: active, not dislocated.

Currently in Q2 Volatile Chop, held 9 consecutive periods. The reading is not borderline — both coordinates sit more than 0.05 from their axis. Correlations, exponents and percentiles are never coloured; only signed values whose sign carries valence are. Source: Trader workbook, Individual regimes daily. As of 18 Aug 2026 — 1 trading day behind the report date.

10.3 — Occupancy and transitions

Quadrant	Label	% of period	Character
Q1	Volatile trend	3.4%	Breakouts extend; stops need room
Q2	Volatile chop	46.9%	Whipsaw — fading extremes has worked better than following them
Q3	Quiet range	49.7%	Tight mean-reverting range; the most comfortable regime for selling premium
Q4	Quiet drift	0.0%	Not visited in this sample

Transition	Count	Note
Quiet range → Volatile chop	4	The dominant move; volatility rises while character stays mean-reverting
Volatile chop → Quiet range	3	The return leg
Volatile chop → Volatile trend	1	The only crossing into positive Persistency all year, in late April 2026
Volatile trend → Volatile chop	1	And it lasted ten sessions

Persistency moves slowly.

The series updates far less often than Volatility and can hold one value for weeks — BHP's sat at exactly −0.2451 for six straight months to December 2025 — producing long vertical runs on the trace. That is the data behaving normally, not a fault. BHP has spent 96.6% of the last year in the two mean-reverting quadrants and has never held a trending regime for more than ten sessions. These statistics describe 24 Jun 2025 – 18 Aug 2026 and are not predictions.

11Driver exposure · Market and Sector

79.3

of daily variance is company-specific

Regression on Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1, 326 overlapping observations, 30 Apr 2025 – 17 Aug 2026.

11.1 — Driver correlations

Driver	Correlation	R² (%)	Rolling 60d	Rolling min	Rolling max	Stability	Direction
Market Driver 1 Primary	−0.123	1.5	−0.359	−0.381	0.120	Variable	Negative
Market Driver 2	0.070	0.5	0.146	−0.209	0.351	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 3	0.052	0.3	0.025	−0.356	0.305	Variable	Positive
Market Driver 4	−0.045	0.2	−0.005	−0.279	0.197	Variable	Neutral
Market Driver 5	−0.017	0.0	−0.062	−0.250	0.232	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 1 Primary	−0.451	20.4	−0.530	−0.666	−0.161	Variable	Negative
Sector Driver 2	0.044	0.2	0.308	−0.279	0.387	Variable	Neutral
Sector Driver 3	−0.002	0.0	−0.143	−0.292	0.224	Variable	Neutral

Market Drivers 1–5 then Sector Drivers 1–3. Daily log returns against first-differenced Market Driver levels and return-scaled Sector Driver values, 326 overlapping observations over 30 Apr 2025 – 17 Aug 2026, rolling window 60 days. Correlations are never coloured. Sector Driver 1 is the only exposure of consequence, and it has been consistently negative — its rolling correlation has not crossed zero in the sample. Drivers as of 17 Aug 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

11.2 — Systematic vs idiosyncratic

Systematic 20.7%

Idiosyncratic 79.3%

Driver	Raw beta	Standardised beta	Share of explained variance
Market Driver 1 (primary)	−0.00007	−0.0586	3.5%
Sector Driver 1 (primary)	−0.31069	−0.4428	96.5%

BHP is not a beta vehicle and it is not an index proxy. The primary market driver explains 1.5% of its daily variance and contributes 3.5% of what little the two factors jointly explain; nearly four fifths of the movement is company-and-commodity specific. For the next 10–30 days that means the S&P does not decide this position — the copper price and BHP's own news flow do, and an index hedge would have offset almost none of the last year's moves.

11.3 — Rolling 60-day driver correlation

Market Driver 1 and Sector Driver 1 against BHP's daily returns, 60-day rolling window, 134 plotted points over 25 Jul 2025 – 17 Aug 2026. Both primaries currently read more negative than their full-period averages — Market Driver 1 at −0.359 against −0.123 full-period, Sector Driver 1 at −0.530 against −0.451. The market relationship has inverted from mildly positive in mid-2025 to distinctly negative now; the sector relationship has simply deepened. Neither is stable enough to hedge on. Drivers as of 17 Aug 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

12Performance by market regime

Every group is named, never its proxy ticker. Conditional statistics describe the stated window and are not forecasts. The sample runs 19 August 2024 to 17 August 2026 — 500 sessions across which BHP rose 65%, so every regime bucket inherits that drift and the absolute returns below read higher than a longer history would give.

12.1 — US market · currently in Q1 volatile trend

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative return	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Volatile Trend Current	87	17.4%	24.6%	89.3%	36.3%	2.46	54.0%	6.2%	−7.1%
Volatile Chop	186	37.3%	38.0%	54.8%	31.6%	1.73	53.8%	9.8%	−10.0%
Quiet Drift	108	21.6%	−1.9%	−4.4%	28.3%	−0.16	48.1%	4.6%	−5.7%
Quiet Range	118	23.6%	−2.9%	−6.2%	32.2%	−0.19	55.1%	4.9%	−5.8%

499 overlapping sessions, 19 Aug 2024 – 17 Aug 2026. Best regime for BHP tinted green, worst red, the regime in force today badged Current. Cumulative return is the compounded BHP return across all days in that regime, not a holding-period return.

12.1b — SP500 · currently in Q1 volatile trend

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative return	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Volatile Chop	192	38.5%	48.8%	68.5%	31.9%	2.15	54.2%	9.8%	−10.0%
Volatile Trend Current	89	17.8%	17.6%	58.4%	35.3%	1.65	53.9%	6.2%	−7.1%
Quiet Range	150	30.1%	0.0%	0.1%	30.5%	0.00	55.3%	4.9%	−5.8%
Quiet Drift	68	13.6%	−6.5%	−22.0%	30.4%	−0.72	42.6%	4.6%	−5.7%

12.1c — Global market · currently in Q2 volatile chop

Market regime	Days	% of period	Cumulative return	Ann. return	Ann. vol	Sharpe	Hit rate	Best day	Worst day
Volatile Trend	33	6.6%	10.2%	110.6%	45.0%	2.46	54.5%	6.2%	−7.1%
Volatile Chop Current	234	46.9%	54.3%	59.5%	32.3%	1.84	54.7%	9.8%	−10.0%
Quiet Range	232	46.5%	−3.7%	−4.0%	29.2%	−0.14	50.9%	4.9%	−5.8%

12.2 — Cross-group summary

Group	Current regime	Best regime for BHP	Worst regime	Cum. return in current	Sharpe in current	Sharpe spread	Days in current
US market	Volatile Trend	Volatile Trend	Quiet Range	24.6%	2.46	2.65	87
SP500	Volatile Trend	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	17.6%	1.65	2.87	89
Global market	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	Quiet Range	54.3%	1.84	2.60	234
Technology	Quiet Range	Volatile Trend	Quiet Range	3.9%	0.18	2.23	171
Financials	Quiet Drift	Quiet Drift	Volatile Trend	11.3%	2.69	2.59	36
Energy	Volatile Trend	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	10.9%	0.83	0.69	94
Utilities	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	Volatile Trend	13.0%	0.87	1.41	127
Europe	Volatile Trend	Volatile Chop	Quiet Drift	−2.3%	−0.17	5.58	113
Gold	Volatile Chop	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	44.2%	0.78	0.74	398
VIX Near	Quiet Range	Quiet Drift	Volatile Chop	50.2%	1.01	0.77	363
VIX Mid	Quiet Drift	Quiet Range	Volatile Trend	10.0%	0.68	2.26	110
Bonds near	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	10.3%	0.39	3.48	224
Bonds mid	Quiet Range	Volatile Chop	Volatile Trend	33.0%	1.03	2.91	258
Bonds long	Quiet Range	Volatile Trend	Quiet Drift	55.9%	1.15	5.44	346

All 14 mapped groups: US market, SP500, Global market, Technology, Financials, Energy, Utilities, Europe, Gold, VIX Near, VIX Mid, Bonds near, Bonds mid, Bonds long. Sharpe spread is best minus worst regime Sharpe for that group. No proxy ticker appears anywhere in this section.

12.3 — Sensitivity

Most sensitive to the Europe regime (Sharpe spread 5.58) and to Bonds long (5.44). Both are wide enough to be material rather than noise, and both currently sit in a middling bucket — Europe in volatile trend at a −0.17 Sharpe over 113 days, Bonds long in quiet range at 1.15 over 346. Read these as a rates-and-currency sensitivity: BHP prices its output in dollars and earns it in Australian and Chilean cost bases.

What has historically followed this configuration over 10–30 days. Across the 82 sessions in the sample on which the US market group was in volatile trend — the regime in force today — BHP's subsequent 21-day return had a median of +2.28% and a 63.4% hit rate, and its subsequent 30-day return a median of +1.72% with a 65.9% hit rate. Stated as history, not forecast: the same sample gives a positive median after every regime because the underlying two years were a 65% advance.

Currently in a favourable configuration on the three headline groups. The US market group is in volatile trend, BHP's best bucket at a 2.46 Sharpe; SP500 is in volatile trend and Global market in volatile chop, the latter being the global group's best at 1.84. All three of the broad-market groups sit in a bucket in which BHP historically made money, and none is in its worst.

But the groups that matter to a miner are the quiet ones. Gold has held its current regime for 241 sessions and Technology for 61 — long, stable holds that carry little information. The US market group has held its regime for only 5 sessions, which is exactly the kind of fresh reading that reverses. Weigh section 11's finding above this table: 79.3% of BHP's variance is not explained by any of these groups.

Do not trade this table.

Regime-conditional history describes 19 Aug 2024 – 17 Aug 2026, not the future, and that window contains a 65% advance in the subject stock, so every bucket is biased upward. No bucket in this section fell below the 30-day threshold, so no row is marked thin sample — but 87 days is still a small sample from which to annualise an 89.3% return. Market regime series as of 17 Aug 2026 — 2 trading days behind the report date.

13News and market narrative

Date	Headline	Sentiment
19 Aug 26	Copper eases to US$6.46/lb but holds a 46.0% year-to-date gain, days after an all-time high of US$6.83	Positive
18 Aug 26	Copper shines for BHP as it pays its highest dividend in four years — 172 US cents, US$8.7bn	Positive
18 Aug 26	BHP FY26 slides: copper drives record margins, growth self-funded; EBITDA up 27% to US$32.9bn	Positive
18 Aug 26	BHP takes US$2.3bn non-cash impairment on Jansen; statutory profit US$9.8bn against US$13.2bn underlying	Negative
18 Aug 26	New CEO Brandon Craig frames BHP around copper: "the engine driving BHP's growth", targeting ~40% output growth to FY35	Positive
18 Aug 26	Fatality disclosed at Peak Downs; BMA returns flagged as below portfolio average	Negative
17 Jul 26	Big miners dive as BHP's market update spooks investors — ADS −5.6% on the FY27 copper guide	Negative
16 Jul 26	BHP reports record iron ore output and sustains ~2 Mt copper production in the FY26 operational review	Mixed
16 Jul 26	BHP backs the future of WA iron ore with Ministers North project approved	Positive
1 Jul 26	Brandon Craig takes the helm at BHP as incoming CEO discloses initial shareholding and incentive rights	Neutral
5 Jun 26	CN to support BHP's Jansen potash mine with rail service connecting Saskatchewan production to global markets	Positive
21 May 26	Mark Vassella appointed non-executive director, adding large-scale industrial operating experience	Neutral

Newest first. Sentiment is this desk's read of the item's implication for the equity over the next 10–30 days, not a vendor sentiment score.

14Company snapshot

Field	BHP Group Limited	Peer context
Legal name	BHP Group Limited — American Depositary Shares, each representing two ordinary shares	—
Exchange / IPO	NYSE (ADS, ticker BHP), listed 28 May 1987; primary listing ASX, secondary LSE and JSE	Rio Tinto also NYSE-listed via ADR from 1990; Vale from 2002
Domicile	Melbourne, Australia. Dual-listed structure collapsed in 2022	Rio Tinto UK/Australia; Vale Brazil; Freeport and Southern Copper US
Sector / industry	Materials — diversified metals and mining	—
Market cap	$226.4bn at the 18 Aug 2026 close	Largest in the peer set; 44% above Rio Tinto's $157.3bn
Employees	~90,000 total workforce including contractors (~48,000 direct)	Rio Tinto 61,230; Vale 65,805; Freeport 29,000; Southern Copper 16,617
TTM revenue	US$58,760M for FY2026 (year ended 30 June 2026), +14.6%	Second to Rio Tinto's $61.79bn; more than double Freeport's $25.87bn
Revenue model	Sale of copper (55% of underlying EBITDA), iron ore (44%), steelmaking and energy coal (3%); potash from mid-CY2027	Rio Tinto iron-ore-led; Vale iron-ore-led; Freeport and Southern Copper copper pure-plays
Key differentiators	World's lowest-cost major iron ore producer for a seventh consecutive year (WAIO C1 ~US$15.50/t); world's largest copper producer at 1,953 kt; Jansen potash 84% complete at 8.5 Mtpa; Vicuña optionality in Argentina	Only member of the group with a copper, iron ore and fertiliser leg
CIK	0000811809	—
Website	bhp.com	—

Overall view · next 10–30 days

Mixed · price-led, volume-capped

The evidence favours neither side decisively, and that is the finding rather than a hedge. BHP delivered a genuinely excellent FY2026 — 56.1% margins, 26.1% underlying ROCE, gearing at 13.4% — and the market paid 0.8% for it, because the 16 July guidance cut had already priced the year ahead and cost 5.6% in a session. What remains for the next month is arithmetic: copper at US$6.46/lb is running 12.5% above BHP's FY2026 realised price and is doing the work of offsetting an 11.7% volume cut, a certain 2.2% comes out of the ADS at the 4 September ex-date, and ten analysts carry a mean target 12.4% below spot. The regime backdrop is mildly supportive — the US market group sits in BHP's best historical bucket — but BHP's own state is Volatile Chop, where chasing strength has been punished all year.

The single condition that flips this: copper. Hold above roughly US$6.30/lb and the FY2027 price offset survives, the dividend gap gets bought back, and the balance of evidence tilts constructive. Break below about US$6.00/lb — a 7% move in a metal that has already travelled 46% this year — and the volume cut stands naked, the 17.1x multiple has no support, and the consensus target becomes the destination rather than the outlier.

Volatility Farm

1 · Prices, market capitalisations, share counts and reference data from Nasdaq. Last completed session 18 Aug 2026 close. Commodity spot prices from Trading Economics, 18–19 Aug 2026. Peer valuation, margin, liquidity and headcount inputs from StockAnalysis.com; analyst target distribution from MarketBeat.
2 · Financial statements from BHP's FY2026 results announcement (18 Aug 2026), FY2026 operational review (16 Jul 2026), H1 FY2026 results (17 Feb 2026), FY2025 results announcement, H1 FY2024 results release, and the FY2026 dividend notice on bhp.com. Insider disclosures from BHP's 6-K filings and ASX Appendix 3Y notices. FOMC dates from federalreserve.gov.
3 · Persistency, Volatility and Market/Sector Driver series from the proprietary Trader workbook (Individual regimes daily, Market regimes daily, and the daily Market Driver and Sector Driver series). BHP regime as of 18 Aug 2026, 1 trading day behind this report date; Market and Sector Drivers and market regimes as of 17 Aug 2026, 2 trading days behind. Overall freshness status: CURRENT.
4 · Figures marked "~", "n/d" or described as derived are not as-reported. Derived here: market capitalisation ($226.4bn = 2,540,695,853 ADS × $89.09); all per-ADS earnings, book value and dividend figures (twice BHP's per-ordinary-share disclosure); P/E 17.1 and 23.0, P/S 3.85, P/B 4.02, EV/EBITDA 7.13, PEG 0.57 and the 3.86% yield; implied FY2027 EPS of ~$4.75 from the forward P/E; every H2 half-year figure (full year less reported first half) and the H1 FY2024 revenue and EBITDA marked "~"; underlying EBITDA margins computed on total revenue, which run ~3pts below BHP's own stated margin; current, quick, cash, debt-to-equity, debt-to-assets, ROA, ROE and DuPont ratios computed from reported balance-sheet items; interest coverage ~23.4× and debt service coverage ~5.3× using net finance costs annualised from the US$705M reported for H1 FY2026; peer EBITDA margins (EV ÷ EV/EBITDA ÷ revenue) and peer net cash (EV less market capitalisation); revenue per employee; annualised volatility of 31.9%; cumulative returns by market regime; all rolling driver correlations and the variance decomposition; and the forward 21- and 30-day conditional statistics in section 12.3.
5 · This report evaluates the likely outcome over the next 10–30 days from 19 Aug 2026 — the window 29 Aug to 18 Sep 2026. Regime, driver and regime-conditional statistics are descriptive of their stated windows and are not predictions; the two-year conditional sample contains a 65% advance in the subject stock and is biased upward accordingly.
6 · This is an analytical document, not investment advice.

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