# Volatility Farm

> Independent short-term research on stocks in the days after they report earnings - what changed, what the market got right or wrong, and the risks over the next 10-30 days.

Volatility Farm publishes one research report per company shortly after its earnings release, plus site-wide sections tracking an earnings calendar, cross-asset market regimes, and the realised performance of the ideas published here. Reports are informational research, not investment advice.

## Site sections

- [Calendar](https://volatilityfarm.com/#calendar): Upcoming and recent earnings dates for tracked tickers, with expected and realised price-impact statistics around the print.
- [Market Regimes](https://volatilityfarm.com/#regimes): Persistency (mean-reverting vs trending) and volatility (calm vs volatile) regime scatter plots for SP500, inverse volatility, gold, and short/intermediate/long-term bond proxies, traced over the last 30 days.
- [Performance](https://volatilityfarm.com/#performance): Realised performance of the portfolio implied by the published reports, benchmarked against SPX and VTI, with summary metrics (beta, alpha, Sharpe, Calmar, max drawdown, average position duration).
- [Reports archive](https://volatilityfarm.com/#reports): Full chronological list of every published company report.
- [Method](https://volatilityfarm.com/#method): How reports are built - scope-before-data, sourced tables, no investment advice, in-house analytics.
- [About](https://volatilityfarm.com/#about): Who publishes this, coverage, community, and contact.

## Reports

One short-term research report per company, published within a few days of its earnings release. Each covers the print itself, the market reaction, and the risks over the following 10-30 days.

- [The Procter & Gamble Company - 22 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/procter-gamble-company-2026-10-22.htm): Fiscal Q1 2027 organic sales rose 4%, led by 2.4% volume growth, and core EPS of $2.00 beat the $1.88 consensus. P&G kept full-year guidance (core EPS ~$7.00, organic sales +1–3%) even as the commodity headwind grew to $1.4B from $1.0B. But core EPS rose only 1%, core gross margin fell 150 bps, and the stock ran from $145 to $159 in the two weeks before the print. Shares were ~3% higher pre-market at ~$162, above the $162 mean target. Over the next 10–30 days PG trades on its own and against the market; the Colgate, Clorox and Kimberly-Clark reads decide whether the staples rotation holds.
- [Hasbro, Inc. - 20 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/hasbro-inc-2026-10-20.htm): Q3 2026 revenue rose 15% to $1.60B and adjusted EPS of $2.90 crushed the $1.85 consensus, with Magic: The Gathering up 34% to over $600M and Wizards earning a 49% margin. Hasbro raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.575–1.625B, above the $1.48B consensus, and doubled its buyback target. But ~$55M of one-off tariff refunds helped, and the full-year revenue guide implies Q4 sales down 4–10%. Shares were ~2% higher pre-market at ~$100.5, after rising 12.5% in a month. Over the next 10–30 days HAS trades on its own news, and the Mattel and holiday-season reads decide whether it reaches its $107 high.
- [General Motors Company - 20 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/general-motors-company-2026-10-20.htm): Q3 2026 EBIT-adjusted rose 22% to $4.1B (8.2% margin) and North America earned an 8.7% margin, with adjusted EPS of $3.70 just ahead of $3.63. GM also raised free-cash-flow guidance by $1.5B and authorised a new $20B buyback. But the full-year profit midpoint stayed at $15B and the EPS midpoint ($13.25) sits below the $13.48 consensus; International, China and GM Financial all fell, and US share slipped to 16.1%. Shares were ~8% lower pre-market at ~$76. Over the next 10–30 days GM trades with the market and the auto group; the buyback pace, Ford's print and the rate path decide whether the gap fills.
- [The Travelers Companies, Inc. - 16 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/travelers-companies-inc-2026-10-16.htm): Q3 2026 core EPS of $9.18 beat the $7.43 consensus on an 86.8 combined ratio, $234M of favourable reserve development and record investment income, and Travelers bought back $1.5B of stock. But net written premiums were flat (+2% excluding the Canada sale), Business Insurance renewal premium change slowed to 4.1% and personal auto premiums fell 8%. The shares dropped ~5% pre-market and then recovered to ~$386 after the call. Over the next 10–30 days TRV trades with the commercial P&C group and against the market; Chubb, Hartford and Allstate's prints decide whether pricing worries or earnings power win.
- [ManpowerGroup Inc. - 15 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/manpowergroup-inc-2026-10-15.htm): Q3 2026 revenue rose 4% to $4.84B (+5% in constant currency) and adjusted EPS of $1.01 matched consensus. But gross margin fell 70 bps to 15.9%, Q4 EPS guidance of $1.03–1.13 sits below the $1.10 consensus, free cash flow was negative and the board named a new CEO from 1 January. Shares were ~19% lower pre-market at ~$42, after doubling between February and August. Over the next 10–30 days the company, not the market, decides the price; analyst resets and the Randstad, Adecco and Kelly prints show whether the gap extends toward $39 or starts to fill.
- [The Progressive Corporation - 14 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/progressive-corporation-2026-10-14.htm): Q3 2026 combined ratio was 88.7 (89.5 a year ago) and EPS of $4.37 was about $4.60 before $170M of realised investment losses, above the $4.41 consensus. But net premiums written grew only 4% in the quarter and 2% in September, policies in force growth slowed to 6%, and a $1.3B unrealised bond loss in September cut book value growth. The shares fell ~2.6% pre-market to ~$217, after a 7.5% rally into the print. Over the next 10–30 days PGR trades with the P&C insurers and against the market; the 3 November conference call and Allstate's results decide whether growth fears or underwriting quality win.
- [Fastenal Company - 14 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/fastenal-company-2026-10-14.htm): Q3 2026 sales rose 15.5% to $2.46B and EPS of $0.35 beat $0.34, with operating margin up to 21.5%. But gross margin slipped 40 bps to 44.8%, 2026 capex was set at $310–330M (from $231M in 2025), and the shares fell about 4.5% pre-market to ~$49, from near a 52-week high. At 41× trailing earnings and above the $49.45 consensus target, FAST is fully valued. Over the next 10–30 days the stock trades in a quiet, range-bound regime that has historically been followed by gains; the October sales report in early November decides whether the dip is bought.
- [ASML Holding N.V. - 14 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/asml-holding-nv-2026-10-14.htm): Q3 2026 sales hit a record €11.7B (+55% YoY) at a record 57.5% gross margin, and Q4 guidance of €14.2–15.2B implies the biggest quarter in the company's history. Management said planned capacity for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, with some customers already asking about 2029–2030 orders. The Amsterdam line opened +2.2% and faded to +0.7%; the ADR was flat pre-market at ~$1,716 after falling 8% in seven sessions. Over the next 10–30 days ASML trades as a semiconductor-sector name (correlation 0.83 with the sector fund, beta 2.2 to the S&P 500), so the late-October chip-equipment and memory prints decide whether the re-rating starts.
- [Johnson & Johnson - 13 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/johnson-johnson-2026-10-13.htm): Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.59 beat the $2.53 consensus and sales of $25.40B beat $25.28B, led by Innovative Medicine (+7.7%: Tremfya +68%, Darzalex +15%). Full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose only $0.06 to $11.10, and MedTech grew just 2.5% with international sales +1.5%. A $5.5B talc charge cut GAAP EPS to $0.09. The shares were ~2.5% lower before the open at ~$257, after a 27% gain this year. Over the next 10–30 days J&J trades on a premium multiple (23.8× this year) with little market correlation; peer prints and orthopaedics separation news decide whether the pullback deepens.
- [Adobe Inc. - 13 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/adobe-inc-2026-10-13.htm): Five straight beats and a twice-raised outlook have not stopped a 32% slide, because the market is pricing leadership turnover, slowing bookings and AI disruption rather than the quarter. With no earnings print before mid-December and 99.5% of daily variance company-specific, the stock trades on news over the next 10–30 days: a fresh downgrade and a federal labour-program suspension weigh on it, while Adobe MAX on 10–12 November is the one dated event that could change the story.
- [PepsiCo, Inc. - 8 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/pepsico-inc-2026-10-08.htm): Q3 2026 beat on revenue and EPS, but full-year core EPS growth guidance was cut to +1–2% from at least +4%, and the stock closed at a 52-week low of $123.73 after nine target cuts in two weeks. The next 10–30 days hinge on whether a cheap valuation holds against a regime backdrop that has rarely favoured PEP, with Coca-Cola and the late-October snack prints as the deciding catalysts.
- [Neogen Corporation - 7 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/neogen-corporation-2026-10-07.htm): Neogen beat Q1 FY27 revenue by 9% and nudged FY27 guidance up, trading 11% higher after hours, but with 97% of daily variance company-specific and the stock at its lowest Persistency reading of the year, the next 10–30 days hinge on the Investor Day and the HYCOAT warning-letter response, not the market.
- [Penguin Solutions, Inc. - 7 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/penguin-solutions-2026-10-07.htm): Penguin beat on Q4 sales and raised FY27 guidance 40%, but the stock had already risen 24% in 30 sessions with operating cash flow negative for the year, so the next 10–30 days test whether post-print target raises confirm demand before the July pattern of a sharp reversal repeats.
- [NIKE, Inc. - 2 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/nike-inc-2026-10-02.htm): After the 1 October close Nike beat on EPS ($0.48 vs $0.43) but missed on revenue ($11.21B, -4%), guiding FY27 adjusted EPS to $1.15-1.35, about 22% below the $1.61 consensus. Shares fell 6.2% after hours to $32.96, a 13-year low, and the next 10-30 days hinge on whether consensus can reset lower into a stock at about 26x guided earnings, in the weakest regime backdrop of any name in this series.
- [Accenture plc - 2 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/accenture-plc-2026-10-02.htm): Accenture rose 15.8% on 1 October, its best day on record, after a Q4 beat and $100M+ bookings hit a quarterly record. But the FY27 guide implies only about 0.5-4% organic growth, and the next 10-30 days hold the gain only if analyst upgrades and the October IT-services prints show AI adding to demand rather than deflating it.
- [Jabil Inc. - 1 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/jabil-inc-2026-10-01.htm): Jabil beat on every line and guided FY27 above consensus, but the stock fell 10% on a lighter margin guide and crowded AI-linked positioning, with the next 10–30 days testing whether that drop was overdone.
- [Micron Technology, Inc. - 1 Oct 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/micron-technology-2026-10-01.htm): Micron cleared every bar at seven times run-rate earnings, but the risk for the month is the cycle debate, not the numbers, with the stock trading at about 7× annualised guidance.
- [Carnival Corporation Ltd. - 30 Sep 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/carnival-corporation-2026-09-30.htm): A beat-and-raise lifted shares 13.4% on record yields and deposits, but with fuel unhedged and a soft Q4 guide, the next 10–30 days hinge on whether crude falls back below $100.
- [Cintas Corporation - 25 Sep 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/cintas-corporation-2026-09-25.htm): A sixth straight beat-and-raise met an FTC antitrust review of the UniFirst deal, with no fixed timeline and the review itself the single event most likely to reprice the stock.
- [Worthington Enterprises, Inc. - 25 Sep 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/worthington-enterprises-2026-09-25.htm): A beat on every line met a spike that gave back most of its gain, with the stock in a $56–$62.5 range ahead of the 10 November Investor Day.
- [Brookfield Corporation - 19 Sep 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/brookfield-corporation-2026-09-19.htm): A 15% earnings beat met an 11% pullback tied to sector, not the company, with the next 10–30 days trading on the alternative-manager complex and a ten-year yield near 5%.
- [Trip.com Group Limited - 16 Sep 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/tripcom-group-2026-09-16.htm): A 50%-off-highs stock met a $763 million antitrust fine, with 94% of variance idiosyncratic and the next 10–30 days hinging on whether the regulatory chapter is closed.
- [NIO Inc - 2 Sep 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/nio-inc-2026-09-02.htm): A margin turnaround with 69% revenue growth met missed delivery guidance and a fresh 52-week low, with the September delivery report due around 1 October deciding the next move.
- [Science Applications International Corp - 1 Sep 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/saic-2026-09-01.htm): A beat and raised guide printed an all-time high before reversing to close up just 1.8%, with book-to-bill at 0.8 and no company catalyst until December.
- [Frontline plc - 28 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/frontline-plc-2026-08-28.htm): A record quarter and the largest payout in years lands the shares at a 52-week high, with the next 10–30 days hinging on spot tanker rates against a scheduled dividend drop.
- [J.M. Smucker Company - 26 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/jm-smucker-2026-08-26.htm): A blowout beat on coffee pricing and tariff refunds pushed shares to a 52-week high and past the average analyst target, leaving a 99.9% idiosyncratic digestion trade.
- [Tuya Inc - 25 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/tuya-inc-2026-08-25.htm): Record premium customers and 16% revenue growth against a near-nil enterprise value, with the earnings catalyst spent and direction now hostage to China-internet sentiment.
- [Walmart Inc - 24 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/walmart-inc-2026-08-24.htm): A beat-and-raise quarter met with a 9.2% single-session drop on decelerating comps, leaving a 99.8% idiosyncratic name with no catalyst until November.
- [Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - 24 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/alibaba-group-holding-2026-08-24.htm): Cloud revenue accelerating 45% against a 75% profit drop, with a discounted $10.2bn Hong Kong share placement now the swing factor for the next month.
- [Lowe’s Companies Inc - 20 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/lowes-companies-inc-2026-08-20.htm): A light revenue miss and a guide cut to the bottom of every range, offset by a cheap multiple and an 87.9% idiosyncratic setup ahead of the September FOMC.
- [Home Depot Inc - 19 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/home-depot-inc-2026-08-19.htm): A best-in-class quarter and reaffirmed guidance met a flat tape, with no company catalyst until November and a premium multiple to defend.
- [Baidu Inc - 19 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/baidu-inc-2026-08-19.htm): First earnings miss in eight quarters and a close below book value, with AI-cloud growth real but no catalyst before November.
- [BHP Group Limited - 19 Aug 2026](https://volatilityfarm.com/reports/bhp-group-limited-2026-08-19.htm): Record FY2026 EBITDA and the largest dividend in four years, against an FY2027 copper guide cut 11.7% — the next 10–30 days trade as a copper-price instrument.

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